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Tuesday: 05.3.2011

Trading for Superstars: What’s Left?

As we turn the calendar on the first full month of the baseball season, the trade wires will begin firing up in earnest as teams maneuver to plug holes left by the spate of injuries and slow starts around the majors.  On the other end of those struggling are the superlatives who are off to record-setting starts.

Slotting one of those players into your lineup is a cure many would love to administer to their team.  Of course it is those who are doing the best that can be toughest to trade for in terms of trade value.  Will they continue?  If not, how much will they fall off?  How much should one month boost their trade value as compared to where they were drafted or what their salary was in the auction?

These questions and more are what lie ahead for owners as they contemplate offers and discuss a myriad of trade possibilities.  I am going to look at 10 of the best performers thus far (five hitters, five pitchers) and work through an exercise whereby we try to figure what exactly is “left” for them.  In other words, what are they going to offer you if you trade for them?

An owner who traded for Ubaldo Jimenez after his sick April in which he threw 24.3 innings of 0.79 ball with 31 strikeouts winning all five of his starts got back 187.3 innings of 3.27 ERA with 14 wins in 28 starts.  A far cry from his April work, but still very useful especially to a team in need of pitching.  But at what cost?  If his trade mate charged him a Roy Halladay price then he may not have been so happy as he didn’t get the sub-3.00 excellence linked to baseball’s best pitcher.

We will look at the five pitchers today.  First we will see what they would have left if they merely managed to end the 2011 season with their three year average of statistics.  Then we will take a look at they still have in the tank as compared against a favorable projection based on their first month, their previous high watermark season and some personal projection from yours truly.

PITCHERS


Johnson’s three year has injury time missed built into it since he made just 14 starts in 2008 and 28 a year ago.  It skews things a bit, but it shouldn’t be glossed over since he is a legitimate injury risk (what pitcher isn’t?).  Coming into the season there were some injury grumblings about him similar to those of Adam Wainwright.

So far he has not only avoided them entirely, but put together a six start stretch that has just been downright absurd in terms of quality.  If he were to have a second straight career year, there would essentially be a 2010 Clay Buchholz with more strikeouts left in the tank.  Buchholz threw 174 innings with a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP last year.  So call it a Buchholz-plus.

However if he were to succumb to any injury and just meet his three year average, which is a hell of an average for the rate stats mind you, he would be pretty “meh” from here on out.  Think 2010 Hisanori Takahashi.  The Mets swingman threw 122 innings with a 3.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP along with 114 strikeouts.

That’s obviously a pessimistic look as you never really want to project injury for someone, but you need to build that into your cost when trading for Johnson.  If your trade partner is unwilling to build in some sort of discount for very real injury risk associated with Johnson then you might be better off looking elsewhere.

Weaver has been a workhorse the last three years getting better year over year increasing his starts and innings while also improving most of his other numbers in the process, too.  As such, many may see this surge as a continuation of what he has been doing the last several years.

Of course it doesn’t always work that way.  In fact, it is much smarter to predict a regression to the mean than it is continued excellence.  If he put up a line equal to his three year average, it would still be one of the best seasons of his career, yet owners getting him now would be saddled with some pretty pedestrian numbers.  Imagine something similar to 2010 Kevin Slowey.

I love Slowey, but the price you would have to pay to get a Slowey clone from here on out what would be pretty outrageous.  I actually don’t see Weaver dropping that much over the remainder of the season, but given how often we see players regress to their average, it certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

I actually see something of a Ubaldian season for Weaver which is essentially what the dream projection give him.  He “struggled” in his start on Monday (notching the baseline of a quality start, 6 IP/3 ER), but when that is your worst start of the year so far, you’re doing just fine.

Keep in mind that if Weaver “only” matches his line from last year (except for wins… if he only managed 13 after getting six in the first month, that’d be really unfortunate), you are due for 173 innings of 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 178 strikeouts.  A very strong line to be sure, but perhaps not as impactful as you might be hoping given the price paid.  I am not saying don’t trade for him, I actually think he is pretty safe as pitchers go, but don’t let your trade partner gouge you, either.

In an AL-Only league I play in, I saw him get traded for Nelson Cruz which I thought was quite fair on both sides.  In fact, looking at his CBS page, I see he was part of another trade in some other league with Cruz who was paired with Brian Roberts while Yadier Molina was sent back with Weaver.

Haren is known for slow second halves waiting until after the All-Star Break to regress to his mean.  After several years of this trend, he reversed it last year.  Saddled with gobs of bad luck in Arizona throughout the first half, he was traded to the Angels just before the trade deadline and pitched masterfully down the stretch posting a 2.87 ERA in 94 innings.

He has maintained that high level of pitching into this year, but still some are reticent because of his history of slowing down as the season wears on.  Personally, I would leverage that in my favor to drive the price down a bit.

Though his ERA has regressed in the second half many times throughout his career, he isn’t a completely useless shlub.  His strong strikeout rates hold up well regardless of time period and his WHIP often stays well above average, too.  Plus, there are still two months before the second half of the season.  If you trade for Haren now, you could still get plenty of goodness and then flip him yourself if you truly are afraid of the second half.

Haren is an especially great target for teams struggling in WHIP.  While it is still technically early, we are getting close to the point where massive ERA and WHIP deficits can’t be easily fixed with a move or two.  Innings are piling up and if you’re too far away from the rest of the pack, you will need two or three star arms to fix it and trading for that would likely decimate you elsewhere rendering the moves useless.


How do you make a dream projection for this guy?  Use 1968 Bob Gibson as a reference point?  Without getting too ridiculous, I just decided to stick with what he has done so far this year and project it for the entire season.  That would still qualify as a career year, but barely after his amazing 2010.

Even his three year average is absurd and if that’s “all” did in 2011, he would still almost certainly be the best pitcher in baseball from here on out.  The simple fact is you’re going to have to pay to get him and if you can somehow avoid paying the price of your first round pick or top dollar offensive asset, then do the trade.

Of course, I doubt that will happen.  Perusing the CBS trades shows us that he has been dealt for Joey Votto, Ryan Braun and Hanley Ramirez most recently.  If your pitching needs help and he is who you seek, you better hope your offense can sustain respectability without its best player or else there is no point doing the trade.  That is to say if you’re going to lose as many points taking player X out of your offense as you’d get by adding Halladay to your pitching, then look elsewhere to fix your pitching woes.

By the way, if he ended this season with his three year average, he would essentially be 2010 David Price with 10 fewer innings from here on out.  We are a month into the season and what he has left is the equivalent of one of the best pitchers in baseball from last year.


Last but not at all the least is Lester.  A popular pick for the American League Cy Young, including mine, he is showing why so many thought he could bring home the hardware this year.  Outside of Halladay, he has the least downside in his profile should he “only” reach his three year average by season’s end.  Part of that is because his ERA and WHIP aren’t as good as the others right now, but the other part is because his three year average is very strong.

He has become one of the most consistent aces in the game and as a 27-year old entering his physical prime, many believed he would take a significant step forward to make a bid for American League’s best pitcher.  If he were to reach that lofty goal, he would probably be near or better than the dream projection.

That would make him, in my estimation, the best of this group to trade for considering he likely won’t cost as much as Halladay does and his upside as compared to what he has already done is the best of the bunch, too.

He has been involved in some insane trades at CBS in that if you were able to get similar value, you should jump at the chance.  Twice today he was dealt straight up for Tim Hudson.  Other straight up deals include ones for: Alex Gordon (!!!), Jose Reyes, Ryan Howard and Justin Verlander.

I won’t share every single one, but just looking at the first page of these trades, they all seem to favor the team getting Lester except for the one where Lester and Howard Kendrick cost the owner Miguel Cabrera and Jake Arrieta.  That is pretty even, though I generally prefer to get the superstar hitter in trades.  Of course if you need pitching, that isn’t always possible.

—

I hope this exercise helps you in your trade endeavors as you try to assess exactly what you are getting back in your mega-deal.  Next, I will look at some hitters who are on fire and perform the same exercise.

You may also be interested in reading the piece by Daniel Moroz over at Beyond the Boxscore that looks at how April’s top pitchers from previous years finish the season.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 05.2.2011

Assessing the New Pitching Landscape

I was perusing some league rosters last night preparing for the upcoming week when it struck me how strong a particular team’s pitching staff was after a month of play.  I then flipped back to my own team and noticed it was similarly strong.  Neither of our teams is being fueled by Jered Weaver or Dan Haren (it’s an AL-Only league).

My team is middle of the pack in total pitching points while the other team is out in front, but not because it is loaded with front-line starters.  In fact the other’s team highest pitching pick was Justin Verlander and his 3.64 ERA is actually a team-worst.

My point here is that the depth that everyone projected in pitching is coming to fruition, but as such, it takes even more quality pitchers to succeed.  You have to change the reference point since it is so plentiful.  Starting pitcher ERA from last April has dropped 0.08 league-wide including a drop of nearly 0.30 in the American League:

Last year there were nearly twice as many sub-2.00 ERA starters (*20+ innings thrown) as there have been this year (14 to 8), but the 2.00-3.00 ERA pool has fattened up a bit so far this year growing from 23 to 29 leaving both pools with 37 sub-3.00 pitchers all told.

Looking further, it is the middle tier of usable starters (sub-4.00 ERA) that has seen the improvement early on as 14 more sub-4.00 ERA pitchers have emerged as compared to last year.  What that means, assuming the pitching surge continues, is that staffs built around an ace and a pair of mid-level guys while piecing the rest together between relievers and another starter or two now needs to add another legitimate starter to the equation in order to compete.

That’s just one example.  There are many ways to build a staff, but if you didn’t build yours while accounting for the influx of good starting pitching, then you’re likely lagging behind, especially without one of the superlatives thus far like a Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay or one of the aforementioned Angels.

I have always believed you can wait on pitching and I remain firmly in that camp, but the emergence (again assuming it continues on this way) we saw in 2010 and continue to see so far in 2011 doesn’t mean you can wait longer.  That’s the common misconception.   You still need to build from the same theoretical tier you’ve built from in the past.  The names may change, but the rounds and dollars values need to remain the same.

You can’t wait longer just because you see more guys with sub-4.00 ERAs and passable WHIPs available later; the improved pitching league-wide just means that replacement level is now a higher bar.

What does this mean now that the season in a month in?  It means don’t be fooled by free agents with shiny ERAs and WHIPs thinking they are automatic keepers because of how enticing someone with a 3.50 ERA on the wire (or whatever would be a good ERA for a starter in your league format… I’m assuming standard 12-team mixed) would’ve been three-four years ago.  You have to re-adjust your thresholds of what is good and what merits someone being picked up and kept long-term.

You also have to honestly assess the staff you built back in March to determine if it’s good enough to compete.  If you were one of those who waited longer than usual assuming there would be enough to pitching to feed off of, then you may find that you’re placing as well as you’d hoped and perhaps a trade is in order.  A month in, we can’t fully know what is going to happen with our team, but taking a detailed look at how you assembled your staff should give you some insight into how it will hold up in this brave new pitching world we seem to be living in since last year.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 05.1.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 5 Monday-Friday

This week was a process for the Spot Starter picks.  It started off poorly as posterboy Brandon McCarthy, who I recommended keeper permanently last week, was torched by the Angels allowing seven runs on 14 (!) hits in just five and a third innings.  Meanwhile, my second pick on Tuesday (skipped Monday due to a lack of viable options) was his opponent, Tyler Chatwood, who I went with over Marco Estrada and Gavin Floyd in order to get the most favorable matchup.

He was passable and earned a win, but the Floyd was excellent against the Yankees (W, 8 IP, 2 ER, 10 K, 5 BR) and Estrada looked sharp against the Reds (7 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 5 BR).  But I stand behind choosing Chatwood as those two were playing two of the best offenses in baseball and they happened to escape with some gems.  The favorable play was passing on those two, especially for this strategy.

Then on Wednesday Derek Holland was ripped for five earned runs in the third straight start and all of a sudden I had three recommendations who totaled 15.7 innings allowing 15 runs with just six strikeouts. Of course there was plenty of time left in the week and the remaining seven selections all allowed three or fewer runs while five of them logged six or more innings.

The rally helped lower the season-long ERA while the five wins logged double the season total to 10.

Let’s keep the weekend momentum (1.75 ERA in 25.7 innings with the Saturday & Sunday starters) going into week 5:

MONDAY:

Bartolo Colon (NYY @ DET) – His ownership rates will likely bump up again after free agent pickups are run on Sunday, but as of now he remains available in a lot of leagues across all of the major outlets.  He is striking batters out, he is inducing groundballs and he is going deep into his starts.  There is just nothing within this profile so far to caution against buying into it.  His resurgence is the epitome of Ron Shandler’s axiom: “Once a player displays a skill, he owns it.”

Derek Holland (TEX @ OAK) – The string of 5 ER starts has to stop here, right?  Holland is too talented to keep getting pounded for a nickel each game and the A’s in their spacious stadium is a great place to get right.  I will be watching this start to get a better handle on Holland, too.  I haven’t seen him throw since the start in NY where Ron Washington was an idiot.

TUESDAY:

Sam LeCure (CIN v. HOU) – LeCure is a perfect matchup play as he feasts on the weak, but isn’t quite as strong against the stiffer competition.  To wit, he has allowed 2 ER and 1 ER in starts against Houston and at San Diego, respectively, striking out 14 in 11 innings across the two starts.  In his other two starts he allowed five to Arizona (including four HR) and three at Milwaukee in just 4.3 innings.

R.A. Dickey (NYM v. SF) – He hasn’t quite been as strong as he was in 2010, but nobody really expected him to be, either.  He has been useful especially getting through some control issues early in the season.  He is generally strong at home (1.99 ERA at Citi; 3.58 away in ’10) and the Giants aren’t scaring anyone with their lineup as Buster Posey slumps (5 for his last 26) and Pablo Sandoval, their best hitter so far this year, just went on the disabled list for 4-6 weeks with a hand injury.

WEDNESDAY:

Kevin Correia (PIT @ SD) – The Giants look like the ’27 Yankees compared to their divisional foes in San Diego as the Padres needed a 7-run surge today to finally top 80 runs for the season (84-last in the majors).  Meanwhile, Correia has just one implosion this season while allowing two or fewer runs in four of his six starts.  He likely won’t maintain his 2.90 ERA all year, but I doubt the regression begins against his old teammates.

Jake Arrieta (BAL @ KC) – The Royals offense is doing some nice work this year, but so is Arrieta having looked great in five of his six starts (an 8 ER in 3.3 IP shellacking against Texas as the lone blemish) which is masked by a 5.01 ERA.  I like him to tame the Royals a bit and keep his streak going.  He may even sneak a win, too, as his offense gets to face Kyle Davies.

THURSDAY:

Joel Pineiro (LA @ BOS) – After starting the season on the disabled list, many owners cut bait on Pineiro as he just made his season debut this past weekend.  The Red Sox are still trying to find their footing so I like Pineiro to take advantage and induce plenty of weak contact en route to a solid showing.

Brandon Beachy (ATL v. MIL) – He is this week’s pick to keep as his ownership starting to increase with each passing great start.  I’m not sure what took so long.  Of course, he is still available in quite a few leagues so he makes the list at least once more.  He has a sub-1.00 WHIP and a strikeout per inning pitched, I can’t imagine a format where that isn’t useful.

FRIDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. LAD) – He just keeps performing so he keeps getting recommended.  His ERA looks available after being inflated in back-to-back starts in early April when he gave up 11 in 10 innings to Philly and Colorado.  Since then he has reeled off three straight 2 ER starts allowing just the six runs in 19.3 innings.  The Dodgers are essentially a two-man lineup right now so Niese should be able to continue rolling.

Phil Humber (CHW @ SEA) – Pitcher on a roll + garbage opponent + pitching in garbage opponent’s excellent ballpark = auto-start.  Humber is another guy with only one real significant negative mark on his record (4 ER in 5.3 against Tampa Bay), but he has been sharp otherwise including a gem under the spotlight in Yankee Stadium.  The MAAAriners shouldn’t prove too challenging.

Weekend picks later in the week…

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Player Focus, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 4 Comments »

Saturday: 04.30.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 4 The Weekend

It’s been an interesting week.  A few of the picks were knocked around while others excelled and perhaps excelled enough to keep the weekly totals strong.  We’ll see after the week.  Some things got bumped around this week including Scott Baker getting pushed to start against Kansas City instead of Tampa Bay which was beneficial since he got to avoid the white-hot Ben Zobrist.  Jason Hammel didn’t start yesterday and is instead starting today.  I guess he will count for a Saturday pick.

I’ll give another Saturday pick, but it is academic at this point since games have already started.  I meant to post them yesterday, but I passed out early last night after a week of not getting much sleep.  The last thing I saw for the night was Carlos Santana’s walkoff home run against my Tigers… what an awful way to fall asleep.

Chris Tillman (BAL @ CHW) – The White Sox just aren’t playing up to their ability.  Tillman has had two good and two bad starts so far.  He can feast on lesser teams so I’ll give him a shot against Chicago.

SUNDAY:

Jon Garland (LA v. SD) – Some like him, some don’t, but he performs.  He has been especially reliable in the National League despite an unimpressive strikeout rate almost every year (just once above 4.8 since 2004).  The Padres offense is downright abysmal making him an easy start.  In fact, several lesser starters would be a start against this offense.  It’s just sooo bad.

Bud Norris (HOU v. MIL) – What does this guy need to do to get his ownership rates up?  All he has done is strikeout six or more in each of his five starts and allow just three runs in his last three starts totaling 18 innings.  He has really cut down his walks from 4.5 BB/9 last year down below to 3.0 at 2.9.  He isn’t just picking on trash, either.  His last start came against the St. Louis Cardinals when he allowed 0 ER in six innings.

Look for the week’s results and the week 5 picks on Sunday.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

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Monday: 04.25.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 4 Monday-Friday

As we inch near putting our first month of the season into the books, some of the shinier waiver wire gems will start to get picked up permanently, but in the league sizes where this strategy works best, there will always be someone out there worth playing.

In the week 3 results post, I recommended rostering Brandon McCarthy full-time (which is of course dependent on who you would have to cut).  Some other previous spot starter recommendations that are likely worth holding onto in most formats include Brandon Beachy and Scott Baker.  That said, they still have crazy low ownership percentages at the major outlets and as such, they will still be included in these columns when appplicable.

While all three may be in owned your league, there are plenty of leagues where all three are available.  That is why I try to include a pair of arms on a given day whenever possible.  I won’t force it by picking a complete shlub I don’t believe in, but on most 15 game days there are a pair of worthwhile pickups.

Let’s see what week 4 is offering us.

TUESDAY:

McCarthy (OAK @ LA) – Little mystery here as I said I was going to keep recommending him until he isn’t so widely available.  He wasn’t great in his first start at Toronto where he allowed four in eight innings striking out just two, but his three starts since have gotten better and better with rising game scores of 57, 68 and 75.

Tyler Chatwood (LA v. OAK) – Picking on the 24th-ranked offense in baseball in terms of runs scored and team OPS more so than I am endorsing Chatwood.  There are more skilled options out there (Gavin Floyd & Marco Estrada), but they are facing two of baseball’s best offenses in the Yankees and Reds, respectively.

WEDNESDAY:

Derek Holland (TEX v. TOR) – A bad inning in each of his last two starts has inflated Holland’s ERA and made him look worse than he has pitched.  Last time out against Kansas City was his own fault, but before that it was his idiot manager leaving him out there way too long.  Ron Washington really is the dumbest manager in baseball.  Make no mistake that they made the World Series in spite of him, not because of him.  He should have never sent Holland out in the 8th in New York on that Saturday start.  Completely idiotic.  Sorry, kind of got off on a tangent there… I’m sure everyone realizes Washington is a terrible tactical manager.  Holland is well on his way to putting together a very strong season.  Again, it really depends what the construction of your team is and how you built your staff at the draft, but there are likely a lot of scenarios where Holland is worth keeping permanently.

Bartolo Colon (NYY v. CHW) – This isn’t just a case of picking on the White Sox, who are struggling mightily at the dish, but Colon is actually throwing the ball really well so far.  His skills support the 3.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, so take a shot on Big Fat Bartolo Colon (nicknamed by ESPN’s Matthew Berry) at home.

THURSDAY:

Baker (MIN v. TB) – His lack of ownership is actually pretty astounding to me.  If you don’t want to buy in on Beachy because he is a rookie or McCarthy because he has been so injury-hampered in his career, I get it, but what is everyone waiting for with Baker?

FRIDAY:

Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS v. SEA) – Even if you don’t believe in what he has done the last two outings, it is hard not to think he can keep it up for at least one more start when he gets a chance to face the Mariners.

Jason Hammel (COL v. PIT) – Hammel is improving start-to-start and now draws the Pirates, who have underwhelmed offensively to say the least.  Hammel’s strikeout rate hasn’t been great at 5.3 K/9 on the season, but with nine in his last two starts (spanning 12.7 innings), he is starting to miss more bats. Pittsburgh’s 177 strikeouts, 3rd-highest in baseball, should only accelerate Hammel’s improvement.

Weekend picks will be out later this week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | 4 Comments »

Sunday: 04.24.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 Results

Just drove back from visiting the family for Easter (5+ hour drive) so I’m a bit wiped out.  Thankfully, I don’t have any plays for Mondays games so I’m holding over the Tuesday-Friday recommendations until Monday.  I need sleep.  I did have time to put together the Week 3 results, though.  Let me start by saying that Fausto Carmona will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever be picked as a spot starter again.  I don’t care if he’s facing the kids of the blind elementary school in your neighborhood, I’d rather recommend Javier Vazquez throwing on 1 day rest in Yankee Stadium against a team of MLB All-Stars.  I crush that guy for the garbage that he is and when I finally buy in just a shred, he goes back to being his Hefty Cinch Sack self.  Unbelievable.

Without him polluting the numbers, the results were still underwhelming as the collective ERA would have been just below 4.00 with a WHIP topping 1.30 and a strikeout rate failing to reach even 6.0 K/9.  With his six runs and 11 baserunners in five innings shellacking, things were much worse as you might have guessed.

A mixed bag for sure as it took until Thursday to even notch a win.  As I doubt anyone actually picks up every single one of these guys, I hope you were lucky enough to get at least a couple of the six worthwhile gems within the bunch.  I know the results won’t always be like Week 2’s 3.08 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but I’m definitely hoping for more good than bad as I’m not just throwing darts here.  Even with the down strikeout rate, at least the group still managed a 2.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Gem of the Week:

Oakland’s Brandon McCarthy is the GotW as he should be picked up permanently in all formats assuming he hasn’t been already.  His first start was the worst of his four and it was hardly awful as he went eight allowing four, but striking out just two.  Since then he has allowed just three runs in 22 innings striking out 18 and walking just a pair.  He’s got the talent, defense, home ballpark and health to finally pay dividends on the early career promise  that earned him the 49th ranking in Baseball America’s Top 100 list back in 2005.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 04.21.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 The Weekend

The picks recommended are doing pretty well so far this week off the top of my head, especially tonight as Brandon McCarthy and Chris Capuano did some great work.  Here are the weekend picks:

SATURDAY:

Brandon Morrow (TOR  v. TB) – This isn’t one of the official picks because it will be the rare league that he is available on the wire, but just in case he is, I strongly recommend picking him up regardless of format.  Well, except NL-Only, I guess.

Dillon Gee (NYM v. ARI) – He looked pretty good against Atlanta in his season debut and he draws the D’Backs at home this weekend.  I don’t think he will overwhelm, but another good start is definitely a strong possibility.  His peripherals were pretty good in 161 innings at AAA-Buffalo last year, but gopheritis (1.3 HR/9) kept his ERA near 5.00.  He registered more than a strikeout per inning with fewer than 2.5 walks per game.  Very intriguing profile.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE @ MIN) – His Opening Day thrashing is what has his ERA still pushing near 5.00 (7 ER in 6.7 IP), but since then he has three straight quality starts totaling 19.3 innings of 3.26 ERA work with 15 strikeouts.  He’s a guy I liked a lot before the season started and nothing has dissuaded me through four starts.

SUNDAY:

Randy Wolf (MIL v. HOU) – I understand that the standard league at most of the big outlets is pretty shallow, but what does a guy have to do to get some love?  OK, I get it if you weren’t diving in headfirst after a 10-strikeout performance against the Pirates, but he followed it up with six shutout innings and five more strikeouts against Philadelphia.  He’s gone 6+ in three of his four starts and registered five Ks in his three starts apart from the huge 10-strikeout game.  I’m definitely betting on him to stay hot against Houston.

Sam LeCure (CIN @ STL) – I think his start to the season has gone relatively unnoticed as he’s available in a ton of leagues.  He started with back-to-back good starts against Houston and in San Diego so competition has fueled him a bit and Arizona definitely roughed him up at home with four bombs (5 ER in 5.3 IP), but I like the 4.3 K/BB rate powered by nearly a strikeout per inning (17 in 17.1 IP).  The Cardinals will be a tough test, but he’s in St. Louis as opposed to his homer-friendly home ballpark so I like the gamble.

Look for the week’s results and the week 4 picks on Sunday.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 04.17.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 Monday-Friday

Spotty internet access as I awaited my setup to be transferred from my old apartment made for a spotty and abbreviated version of what I intend to become a weekly staple with the spot starter recommendations.  In a moment, I will unveil the list of week three recommendations as well as how the week two pickups performed, but first a bit more about the goal behind these recommendations.

The idea is that there is enough useful pitching on the waiver wire of a large swath of leagues (generally, 10-14 team mixers) that you can play the matchups with one or two spots in the backend of your rotation and get some very quality work out the spots instead of sticking it out with a run of the mill third or fourth starter.

Cory Schwartz and Mike Siano over MLB.com’s Fantasy 411 popularized the phrase “pitch or ditch” for this strategy.  You will also hear it called streaming or spot starting.  I am not for a second pretending like I created this strategy, I am merely offering my solutions on the best way to maximize it.  Let’s see how last week’s picks worked out:

Not too bad on the whole as only one of the nine gave up more than three runs (Brandon Beachy) and he softened the blow by striking out eight.  Of course he had to make up for Jeff Francis’ lame one strikeout in six and a third innings of work.  If there is one thing that sticks out as less than desirable, it’s the two wins in nine starts, but you can’t chase wins and a lot of these are available because they aren’t on the high profile teams that would generally be more conducive to wins.

Who’s on tap for week 3?

MONDAY:

Chris Tillman (BAL v. MIN) – He has had an uneven start to the season with a dominating six inning no-hit effort against Tampa Bay followed by two poundings at the hands of the Tigers and Yankees.  The best medicine is a shot against the league’s worst offense in the midst of getting used to being without their best player.  They weren’t very good with Joe Mauer and it would be quite a shock if they were without him.

Travis Wood (CIN v. PIT) – Wood’s skills have remained intact from last year which is to say they are pretty good and facing the anemic Pirates should only accentuate them.  The fly in his ointment remains a severe flyball rate in a terrible park for such an affliction.  He was extremely lucky when it came to home runs last year (6.3 HR/FB) and he’s been even luckier this year (4.5%) so while I like him in this favorable matchup, I wouldn’t stick with him beyond that.

TUESDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. HOU) – A 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio powered by nearly eight strikeouts per game coupled with a 51% groundball rate is enough for me to remain optimistic in Niese despite a 6.88 ERA.  He is getting tagged by a 56% LOB% and 14% HR/FB rate so a date with the lowly Astros is welcomed by Niese and owners of his services.  Depending on who you cut for him, this may be someone to hang onto going forward.

Phil Coke (DET @ SEA) – Through two starts totaling 13.7 innings, Coke has allowed just two runs.  The six hits allowed are definitely a plus while the six walks are neither good nor bad.  In his debut start against Kansas City, he struck out seven, but followed that up with just two in seven innings against Oakland.  So we are left wondering what kind of strikeout capability he will offer as a starter.  The Mariners strikeout 2nd-most in the American League, but they are also tied for the most walks in baseball.  It’s a terrible lineup in a favorable park, so Coke should be a nice play here (and in his next start when he draws the Mariners at home).

WEDNESDAY:

Bud Norris (HOU @ NYM) – He worked out well last week so let’s hit the well again.  He has improved start to start and posted strikeout totals of 7-6-7 in the process.  This is a very talented young arm who could become a permanent asset for fantasy owners sooner than later.

Philip Humber (CHW @ TB) – Picking on the Rays again who Humber already thwarted back on April 9th allowing a run in six innings with four strikeouts en route to a win.  This is purely a hot streak/matchup play as I don’t like Humber much going forward.

THURSDAY:

Brandon McCarthy (OAK @ SEA) – To drive home the point about not chasing wins, the A’s will face Felix Hernandez during this start, but I still really like McCarthy.  Like Norris, he has improved start to start (all of which came against teams much better than Seattle) yet his ownership rate remains very low.  He could definitely become a long-term hold going forward so you might want to his secure his services sooner than later if you have the spot available.

Chris Capuano (NYM v. HOU) – He just can’t stay this unlucky, especially against a bad team like the Astros.  He’s getting groundballs and strikeouts while limiting walks, but his BABIP is nearly .400 (.385) and over 20% of his flyballs have left the yard leaving him with an ugly 61% LOB%.  Those numbers begin their correction with this start.

FRIDAY:

Fausto Carmona (CLE @ MIN) – Many of you may know that I’m not a fan of Carmona at all, but he’s done some impressive work in his last two starts (v. BAL, @LA) against better teams than the Twins including 11 strikeouts over 14.7 innings which is high for him.  He’s still inducing a crapton of groundballs, too.  He gets hot in stretches and after a horrific Opening Day starts (10 ER in 3 IP) he’s allowed four runs in 21.7 innings (the other start was against BOS), so ride the wave.

Jo-Jo Reyes (TOR v. TB) – Even with a small sample size, his .438 BABIP is kind of unbelievable.  It has definitely fueled his 6.75 ERA, but I like that he’s still striking out nearly a batter per inning (12 in 13.3 IP) and maintaining a 1:1 groundball/flyball ratio.  I hate to keep picking on Tampa Bay, but until they get Evan Longoria back and/or sort out their lineup woes, it will continue to happen.

I will give out the Saturday and Sunday picks midweek as those are going to be the repeat starters and I’d like to see the first starts of those guys before making another decision on them.   Plus it guards against injury that may occur in those initial starts.

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Friday: 04.15.2011

Trolling the Wire: The Weekend

Wrapping up the week on Spot Starters, here is who I like today and through the weekend:

FRIDAY:

Chris Narveson (MIL v. Washington) – Narveson has been brilliant this year striking out more than a batter per inning and toting a 0.00 ERA through his first two starts.  He can’t really be any better, but I see no reason he can’t continue to excel matching legitimate skills with a favorable matchup in Washington.  With his first two starts, his ownership rate is definitely on the rise, but some leagues still aren’t hot to this hidden gem.

Kyle Lohse (STL v. Los Angeles) – Lohse is well on his way to recapturing the magic of 2008 when he went 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 200 innings having netted a 3.00 ERA over 15 innings in his first two starts amassing 10 strikeouts with just a single walk.  Even more importantly, he has a ridiculously strong 58% groundball rate which could be the driving force to a resurgent season.  Today he draws the lowly Dodgers who you may think are doing well enough because of Matt Kemp’s excellent start and their passable 6-7 record, but even with Kemp they have a paltry .679 team OPS.

SATURDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. Tampa Bay) – He has some interesting numbers in his stat line so far this year.  He has an uncharacteristically high 4.9 BB/9 (well away from his 2.1 career mark), an 82% LOB% which is about 10% above league average and generally helps a guy’s ERA, but not when you have a 3.3 HR/9 rate!!!  That is just absurd, even for Baker who struggles with the long ball.  Exactly 1/3rd of his flyballs are leaving the yard at this point.  I’m willing to bet all three of those numbers will come down and while the LOB% dropping isn’t necessarily helpful, the evening out of the other two will hack several runs off of his 6.55 ERA.  The best remedy for a rough start is drawing the Longoria-less Rays.

Jeff Niemann (TB v. Minnesota) – Like his opponent, Niemann has some odd figures through two starts with a similar 3.1 HR/9 rate matched with an ugly BABIP (.344) and LOB% (55%).  His strikeout-to-walk rate of 1.7 is less than impressive as his strikeout rate of 5.2 sits well below his 6.5 career mark.  An even better remedy than Niemann facing his own team is facing the now Mauer-less Twins.  They weren’t any good with him and without him they can’t possibly be better.  It’s odd to favor both guys in a matchup since at best you can only get one win, but I don’t chase wins.  Plus not everyone plays BOTH guys I recommend, so pick your favorite between (I’d lean Baker) the two and enjoy.

SUNDAY:

Jeff Francis (KC v. Seattle) – With a groundball rate even better than Lohse’s (57%), Francis is off to a great start through three starts in his first tour of the American League.  He doesn’t offer overwhelming strikeout totals as his 5.7 K/9 is about what you should expect across a full season, but he could receive a boost facing the Mariners, who strikeout 3rd-most in the American League.

That’s it for Sunday.  I don’t want to recommend someone I don’t really believe in just to have 2 guys.

I should have the full week 3 spot starters out this weekend.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Friday: 04.15.2011

Cliff Lee’s Amazing Game

I don’t think even the most over-reactionary of fantasy owners had any major concerns about Cliff Lee after his second start where he managed just 3.3 innings allowing six runs on 10 hits and a walk in Atlanta.  Seeing that line for your ace is never fun, but every pitcher takes some beatings over the course of 32 starts.  Even Lee’s teammate Roy Halladay gave up six runs in two separate outings last year.

Just in case anyone was worried about Lee in the slightest, his performance on Thursday alleviated any and all fears a million fold.  He put together an effort so ridiculous that it has only been done 11 times (2 of which were no-no’s) in baseball history (or at least the history tracked by Baseball-Reference).  A complete game 3-hit effort with 12 strikeouts and a walk is excellent enough as is, but when you factor in that Lee performed the feat in just 99 pitches, it’s kind of mind-blowing.

Lee’s control has never been in doubt and it was hyperactive last night with 74 strikes out of the 99 pitches.  He just dismantled the Nationals, that’s all there is to it.  He induced four or more swinging strikes on four of his five offerings (two & four seam fastballs, cutter and curveball) with the curveball generating five swings and misses on just seven thrown!

He had three single digit pitch innings (2nd, 4th and 6th) and topped 12 just twice (3rd w/15 and 8th w/16).  It probably won’t get the fanfare it deserves because it’s not a perfect game or a no-hitter, but it’s a brilliant effort without question.  As I mentioned before, Lee’s sub-100 pitch complete game with 10+ strikeouts has happened just 10 other times and only one other matched his 12 strikeouts (Sandy Koufax, 1964).  Lee’s 74 strikes were 2nd to Terry Mullholland’s 76 which came in one fewer pitch during his 98-pitch gem back in 1991.

Here is the list in full thanks to Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index (sorted newest to oldest):

Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Strks GmSc
1 Cliff Lee 4/14/2011 PHI WSN W 4-0 SHO9 ,W 9 3 0 0 1 12 0 99 74 92
2 Chris Carpenter 9/7/2009 STL MIL W 3-0 SHO9 ,W 9 1 0 0 2 10 0 99 64 93
3 Chris Carpenter 6/14/2005 STL TOR W 7-0 SHO9 ,W 9 1 0 0 1 10 0 95 68 94
4 Roy Halladay 5/29/2005 TOR MIN W 4-0 SHO9 ,W 9 2 0 0 0 10 0 99 72 93
5 Roy Oswalt 4/16/2004 HOU MIL W 2-0 SHO9 ,W 9 3 0 0 0 10 0 94 66 91
6 Mike Mussina 5/1/2001 NYY MIN W 4-0 SHO9 ,W 9 3 0 0 0 10 0 99 69 91
7 Curt Schilling 4/10/2001 ARI LAD W 2-0 SHO9 ,W 9 2 0 0 0 10 0 93 73 93
8 David Cone 7/18/1999 NYY MON W 6-0 SHO9 ,W 9 0 0 0 0 10 0 88 68 97
9 Terry Mulholland 9/18/1991 PHI MON W 1-0 SHO9 ,W 9 2 0 0 0 10 0 98 76 93
10 Tim Belcher 8/30/1991 LAD CHC W 2-0 SHO9 ,W 9 4 0 0 0 10 0 99 70 89
11 Sandy Koufax 6/4/1964 LAD PHI W 3-0 SHO9 ,W 9 0 0 0 1 12 0 97 68 98

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