Posts tagged ‘Fantasy Baseball’

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Wednesday: 05.18.2011

Mazzaro’d

By now you are familiar with the disastrous outing that Kansas City Royals pitcher Vin Mazzaro suffered through last night.  He threw 2.3 of the worst innings in baseball history yielding a jaw-dropping 14 runs on 11 hits and three walks.  Anyone that plays fantasy baseball had one thought once they saw the line: “Holy crap, who has him??” and then they scurried off to their league’s website to see if anyone took the beating.  Of the AL-only and mixed leagues I am in, only one team had him rostered and he was on the reserve roster, thankfully for them.

But what if he wasn’t?  What would it feel like to be Mazzaro’d?  It sure as hell wouldn’t have been good, but you don’t need me to tell you that.  Let’s take a look at how it would’ve affected the 13 teams in my 5×5 mixed league:

Yikes, that is horrible.  On average it did 0.30 points of damage to an ERA with just under 400 innings.  Coincidentally, my team is the one that took biggest hit (Team 1) thanks to my league low in innings of 329.  I didn’t include the WHIP damage because it was exactly the same for 12 of the 13 teams at 0.03.  Team 13 with its huge innings cushion would have suffered a hit of 0.02 to its WHIP had it been Mazzaro’d.

After seeing the average of 0.30 ERA damage, I wondered how many scoreless innings each team would need to get back to their starting ERA pre-Mazzarofication.

On average the teams in my league would need about three and a half straight shutouts to get de-Mazzaro’d.  There is no way you would get that in a row immediately after this beating, but even spreading it over the remainder of the season, you would need some fanciful pitching to get out from under that microburst of destruction.

We have seen the damage that getting Mazzaro’d does to the whole numbers on the ERA and WHIP, but what kind of hit would a team have taken to their point total?

A pretty wide range of damage done depending on team.  One team would have suffered no wholesale damage to their point total from the Mazzaroing.  That is kind of incredible.  The damage is still done the ERA and WHIP, though, it is just that the placement in the standings for that team was fortuitous enough not to cause any immediate harm.  Team 11, doing pretty well with 18 points between the two categories, would have suffered a major hit losing six points in the two categories.  Can you imagine losing six points in two categories in a single night on May 17th?  Most league standings are stratified enough that you wouldn’t see that kind of movement this late barring some crazy stuff like a Mazzarolation.

So was anyone Mazzaro’d in your leagues?  If so, how much did it sting them?  How many points did they lose that night and did they instantly cut Mazzaro even before the next transaction period?  Let me know in the comments or on Twitter (@sporer).

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Statistical Analysis | 1 Comment »

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Monday: 05.9.2011

Prospect Spotlight: Jose Iglesias & Yamaico Navarro

The prospect parade continued on Sunday as the Boston Red Sox announced they were calling up slick fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias to take the spot of Marco Scutaro, who is headed to the disabled list.

JOSE IGLESIAS

This call up has exponentially less fanfare than that of Eric Hosmer for many reasons, chief among them being that he isn’t near the talent from a fantasy aspect and the fact that he’s essentially going to be a defensive replacement.

The 52nd-ranked prospect by Baseball America is unquestionably excellent with the glove which has allowed him to climb the minor league ranks and reach AAA at the age of 21, but his bat lags way behind.  It’s always going to, too.  His ceiling is going to be a Rey Ordonez-plus.  He likely won’t be quite as inept at the plate, but .700 OPS will be a challenge (Ordonez had a career .600 OPS).

His lack of skill with the bat combined with his role as a defensive replacement make him a complete nonfactor in all fantasy formats.  I have seen him drafted to minor league rosters in some AL-Only leagues and I’m not entirely sure why (and I’m talking long-term, not just ’11).  Perhaps it is because he is the top rated or at least one of the top rated prospects on a high profile team, but those lists are all-encompassing meaning his remarkable defense matters.

Unless you play a Strat-O-Matic or Scoresheet league, his defense means nothing for fantasy players.

YAMAICO NAVARRO

I was hoping that Yamaico Navarro would get a call soon even over Iglesias as he brings a lot more potential with the bat, but he suffered an oblique strain and on May 7th he hit the 7-day DL in the minors.  That may be more why Boston went with Iglesias.

Navarro had a strong season last year (hitting .275/.356/.437 in AA and AAA) crossing three levels including a 20-game stint with the Red Sox from late August through the end of the year.  He was clearly overmatched in the small sample (.143/.174/.143), but that’s not too surprising for a 22-year old who had just 16 games of AAA experience prior to reaching the big leagues.

He is back in Pawtucket and off to a great start this season hitting .329/.436/.612 in 101 plate appearances.  He has 14 extra base hits including eight doubles, two triples and four home runs.  He has driven in 12, scored 19 and two stolen bases.

Perhaps as impressive as anything in his start is the 1:1 K/BB split (13 apiece).  His plate patience has been something he seems to be working on constantly as he was sitting 2.4-2.5 in 2007 and 2008 before dropping to 2.0 in 2009 and then a really nice improvement to 1.3 last year.

Primarily a shortstop in his minor league career, Navarro has also seen time at second base, third base and all three outfield spots this season.  With that flexibility plus a great start at the dish, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Sox soon selected him to be their super-utility man especially in light of the fact that their backup outfielders, Mike Cameron and Darnell McDonald, are hitting a robust .158 combined (9-for-57).  It will depend on how those two play in the coming weeks and how quickly Navarro heals from the oblique.

But again even adding his 2011 start, he still has just 39 games above AA and he is still just 23 years old.  I think Navarro is someone to strongly consider depending on league format.  He may still be available in dynasty/ultra leagues, so check your wire.  Meanwhile, AL-Only leaguers using a more limited minor league roster (3-7 slots) might want to make room to invest as he will almost certainly get the call before September, especially if he keeps raking the ball when he returns from injury.  Don’t start releasing guys who are top 5-7 in their organization for him, but he is as good as any other lower rated org. guy… unless the org. is Kansas City.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Player Focus, Prospects, Strategy | 1 Comment »

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Sunday: 04.17.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 Monday-Friday

Spotty internet access as I awaited my setup to be transferred from my old apartment made for a spotty and abbreviated version of what I intend to become a weekly staple with the spot starter recommendations.  In a moment, I will unveil the list of week three recommendations as well as how the week two pickups performed, but first a bit more about the goal behind these recommendations.

The idea is that there is enough useful pitching on the waiver wire of a large swath of leagues (generally, 10-14 team mixers) that you can play the matchups with one or two spots in the backend of your rotation and get some very quality work out the spots instead of sticking it out with a run of the mill third or fourth starter.

Cory Schwartz and Mike Siano over MLB.com’s Fantasy 411 popularized the phrase “pitch or ditch” for this strategy.  You will also hear it called streaming or spot starting.  I am not for a second pretending like I created this strategy, I am merely offering my solutions on the best way to maximize it.  Let’s see how last week’s picks worked out:

Not too bad on the whole as only one of the nine gave up more than three runs (Brandon Beachy) and he softened the blow by striking out eight.  Of course he had to make up for Jeff Francis’ lame one strikeout in six and a third innings of work.  If there is one thing that sticks out as less than desirable, it’s the two wins in nine starts, but you can’t chase wins and a lot of these are available because they aren’t on the high profile teams that would generally be more conducive to wins.

Who’s on tap for week 3?

MONDAY:

Chris Tillman (BAL v. MIN) – He has had an uneven start to the season with a dominating six inning no-hit effort against Tampa Bay followed by two poundings at the hands of the Tigers and Yankees.  The best medicine is a shot against the league’s worst offense in the midst of getting used to being without their best player.  They weren’t very good with Joe Mauer and it would be quite a shock if they were without him.

Travis Wood (CIN v. PIT) – Wood’s skills have remained intact from last year which is to say they are pretty good and facing the anemic Pirates should only accentuate them.  The fly in his ointment remains a severe flyball rate in a terrible park for such an affliction.  He was extremely lucky when it came to home runs last year (6.3 HR/FB) and he’s been even luckier this year (4.5%) so while I like him in this favorable matchup, I wouldn’t stick with him beyond that.

TUESDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. HOU) – A 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio powered by nearly eight strikeouts per game coupled with a 51% groundball rate is enough for me to remain optimistic in Niese despite a 6.88 ERA.  He is getting tagged by a 56% LOB% and 14% HR/FB rate so a date with the lowly Astros is welcomed by Niese and owners of his services.  Depending on who you cut for him, this may be someone to hang onto going forward.

Phil Coke (DET @ SEA) – Through two starts totaling 13.7 innings, Coke has allowed just two runs.  The six hits allowed are definitely a plus while the six walks are neither good nor bad.  In his debut start against Kansas City, he struck out seven, but followed that up with just two in seven innings against Oakland.  So we are left wondering what kind of strikeout capability he will offer as a starter.  The Mariners strikeout 2nd-most in the American League, but they are also tied for the most walks in baseball.  It’s a terrible lineup in a favorable park, so Coke should be a nice play here (and in his next start when he draws the Mariners at home).

WEDNESDAY:

Bud Norris (HOU @ NYM) – He worked out well last week so let’s hit the well again.  He has improved start to start and posted strikeout totals of 7-6-7 in the process.  This is a very talented young arm who could become a permanent asset for fantasy owners sooner than later.

Philip Humber (CHW @ TB) – Picking on the Rays again who Humber already thwarted back on April 9th allowing a run in six innings with four strikeouts en route to a win.  This is purely a hot streak/matchup play as I don’t like Humber much going forward.

THURSDAY:

Brandon McCarthy (OAK @ SEA) – To drive home the point about not chasing wins, the A’s will face Felix Hernandez during this start, but I still really like McCarthy.  Like Norris, he has improved start to start (all of which came against teams much better than Seattle) yet his ownership rate remains very low.  He could definitely become a long-term hold going forward so you might want to his secure his services sooner than later if you have the spot available.

Chris Capuano (NYM v. HOU) – He just can’t stay this unlucky, especially against a bad team like the Astros.  He’s getting groundballs and strikeouts while limiting walks, but his BABIP is nearly .400 (.385) and over 20% of his flyballs have left the yard leaving him with an ugly 61% LOB%.  Those numbers begin their correction with this start.

FRIDAY:

Fausto Carmona (CLE @ MIN) – Many of you may know that I’m not a fan of Carmona at all, but he’s done some impressive work in his last two starts (v. BAL, @LA) against better teams than the Twins including 11 strikeouts over 14.7 innings which is high for him.  He’s still inducing a crapton of groundballs, too.  He gets hot in stretches and after a horrific Opening Day starts (10 ER in 3 IP) he’s allowed four runs in 21.7 innings (the other start was against BOS), so ride the wave.

Jo-Jo Reyes (TOR v. TB) – Even with a small sample size, his .438 BABIP is kind of unbelievable.  It has definitely fueled his 6.75 ERA, but I like that he’s still striking out nearly a batter per inning (12 in 13.3 IP) and maintaining a 1:1 groundball/flyball ratio.  I hate to keep picking on Tampa Bay, but until they get Evan Longoria back and/or sort out their lineup woes, it will continue to happen.

I will give out the Saturday and Sunday picks midweek as those are going to be the repeat starters and I’d like to see the first starts of those guys before making another decision on them.   Plus it guards against injury that may occur in those initial starts.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

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Thursday: 04.14.2011

Prospect Spotlight: Keyvius Sampson

We already know that anyone pitching in San Diego’s PETCO is instantly a bit better thanks to the spacious dimensions of the yard.  The Padres are grooming some legitimately talented arms that can pitch anywhere to the point that the Petco Push will make them nearly unbeatable.  Most recently it has been ace Mat Latos while Simon Castro and Casey Kelly are rocketing through the minor leagues, but one of the prospect we might soon see destroying hitters regardless of venue is Keyvius Sampson.

The diminutive (6’0) 20-year old is currently a second tier prospect in the Padres organization, but his talent has top 100 potential.  The 2009 4th round pick out of high school struggled with injuries in his first full season last year pitching just 43 innings in 10 starts.  However, he did impress in the limited sample with mid-90s velocity (sits 91-93, touches 95) that drove his gaudy 12.1 K/9.  The secondary stuff is behind the heater right now which is why he’s an org prospect right now as opposed to a top 100 guy, but it’s on the come.

He has good feel for both a curveball and changeup so while neither is terribly consistent just yet, at least both are in the arsenal as opposed to needing that third pitch which would leave him on the fence between starter and reliever.  Some reports have the changeup a bit ahead of the curve, but then others suggest the curve is a bit better.

So far in 2011, it would appear that the three pitches are firing on all cylinders as he has put together two truly excellent starts amassing 19 strikeouts in 11 shutout innings walking just one and allowing a mere two hits.  His first outing included six no hit innings with 10 Ks while Wednesday’s was nearly as impressive with five innings of 2-hit ball with nine Ks and the lone walk he’s allowed.  His next hurdle is proving health.

Elbow soreness got him shutdown last year and it likely stemmed from a tear in his right labrum, but so far he looks 100% healthy.  I think the Padres would just like to see him stay healthy and spend the season in A-Fort Wayne of the Midwest League as opposed to worrying about a promotion as the next step if the California League where pitchers routinely get destroyed regardless of talent.

If he can pitch a full season in A-ball and continue to excel, then he might be in line to skip High-A and go straight to AA-San Antonio for 2012.  The Padres did just that with Latos and Castro, allowing them to skip the pitcher’s hell that is the Cal League.

He is one to keep on the radar from a fantasy standpoint, but this white-hot start is definitely worth noting.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Player Focus, Prospects, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

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Wednesday: 03.23.2011

2011 Bold Predictions-Part 1

One of the more exciting things to think about as the season approaches is which players are going to have the break through seasons?  Who are going to be this year’s Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto and Jose Bautista or David Price, Jaime Garcia and Ubaldo Jimenez?  For the past few years I have tried to answer that question with “Bold Prediction” columns over at Fanball.  I could’ve sworn I posted at least the 2009 iteration here, too, but I can’t seem to find after an extensive search.

I’m hardly the only one undertaking this task as Ron Shandler and crew have their Longshot Caucus over at BaseballHQ.com and Matthew Berry has his You Heard Me! piece over at his page on ESPN.  I believe he will be releasing that soon and it’s always a fun read.  Both are, in fact.  Hopefully I am able to deliver to that end as well.

In case you don’t remember from previous versions over at Fanball, the bold predictions column isn’t a bunch of aimless predictions, but rather it looks at a player’s whole profile, in the pros and minors, and tries to project out some best case scenarios for them.  These aren’t surefire bets, they are longshots that need a myriad of factors to go right if they are to happen.  You should reasonably expect between 15% and 20% of them to come to fruition.  The point is to get you thinking outside of the box(score) and not focus so much on what we’ve seen, rather entertain what we could see.

I am not going to have the Brady Anderson 50 home run season-type prediction in here because nothing in his profile would’ve told me that was possible so I wouldn’t project it.  Some of these may be “duhs” to you which simply means you’re already looking at possible outcomes beyond what we’ve seen to date.  In the end if there is a prediction you agree with and it causes you to go the extra buck on a guy and outperforms his cost, but doesn’t necessarily meet the exact figure in the prediction, it’s still a win (i.e. I had Gio Gonzalez projected for 175 Ks last year coming off of a season in which he had a near-6.00 ERA.  He finished with 171 and a 3.23 ERA.  If you bought in, you certainly profited significantly).

Some of the other calls from last year include:

  • Shaun Marcum will pick up right where 2008 left off
  • Luis Valbuena will hit 18 HR and steal 18 bases
  • Juan Pierre will steal 70 bases
  • Kelly Johnson will hit 21 HR and .300
  • Manny Ramirez will hit 40 HR
  • Nate Schierholtz will hit .320 with 15 HR
  • Ubaldo Jimenez wins 20 games
  • Billy Wagner will save 40 games (“And might very well be the league’s best closer.”)
  • Mike Stanton will hit 17 HR
  • Mike Jacobs will hit 35 HR
  • Lastings Milledge will hit 20 HR, steal 20 bases
  • Joey Votto will hit 35 HR, drive in 120 runs

That’s a decent sample of wins and losses.  As you can see, some were incredibly far off the mark by October, but you could have envisioned a scenario where they came true and you wouldn’t have have been utterly baffled as to how like you probably were after Ben Zobrist’s 2009 line of .297, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 91 R and 17 SB.  Yes, I highlighted some of the big wins there.  I definitely did not have a 58% success rate as this sample of 12 might lead you to believe.  In fact, I went 18-for-73 yielding a 25% success rate.  Let’s see if we can top that for 2011:

AL East

Baltimore Orioles:

J.J. Hardy hits a career-high 33 home runs – A bum wrist (and other various bumps & bruises) have sapped his power the last two years after a pair of mid-20s home run seasons in Milwaukee back in 2007 and 2008.  He moves to a very hitter-friendly ballpark and he is reportedly finally 100% healthy and clear of the wrist issues.  He is in the midst of his prime and I’m buying the clean bill of health.  He is going very late in fantasy drafts at the most scarce position on the diamond.  If you out on the “studs” at short in an AL-Only, wait on Hardy.

Zach Britton pitches 120+ quality innings at the big leagues – His absurd sinker and devastating slider are major league ready while his changeup is catching up quickly.  He will almost certainly start the season in AAA, but he shouldn’t be there long.  The O’s rotation is hardly stable as it currently stands so once the Super 2 Deadline passes, he should be inserted into the big league rotation where I think he will be an instant success.  “Quality innings” is a bit vague so to clarify, I’m thinking he can net a 3.50ish ERA (give or take .15 for random variance) with 6.5 K/9 and 2.0+ K/BB.  The strikeouts will rise as he gains experience, but he will utilize that sinker to induce a ton of groundballs as he gains his feel for the big leagues.

Nick Markakis finally has the .300-30-100 season – I made this one last year and I’m headed to the well again.  I was only off by 18 home runs and 40 RBIs last year!  Joking aside, he is just too good of a player to be hitting 12 home runs in a season.  A 30-home run season would be seven higher than his previous career high and 10 more than his last three seasons.  He is still at the front end of his prime so don’t rule out an explosion that would shock the narrow-minded.

Jake Fox’s regular season home run total won’t match his Spring Training total… – … because he’s not good.  He has eight as of this writing and even if he doesn’t hit another one this spring, he still won’t top that figure in the 2011 regular season.  Don’t waste your money.

—

Boston Red Sox:

Jacoby Ellsbury hits .320 with 16 HR – The speed will be there, too, but with a career high of 70 there is nothing that would be all that bold.  If he met this projection, he would be a Carl Crawford-lite.

Jon Lester posts a 2.50-2.75 ERA with 24 wins en route to an AL Cy Young – I had too many wins-based predictions for pitchers last year which was dumb because I’m always beating the “skill doesn’t always translate to wins” drum so I was leaving the projection in the hands of the offenses, defenses and bullpens when I was really trying to comment on the pitcher’s skill.  I included the 24-win mark in Lester’s prediction because I think he has the appropriate backing of offense, defense and bullpen to reward his increasingly excellent skill.

—

New York Yankees:

Alex Rodriguez hits 52 home runs – It’s hard to really predict anything that can reasonably be considered bold with A-Rod, but he’s 35 years old and has back-to-back 30 home run seasons leading many to believe he is firmly into his decline phase.  There is some skill erosion, but the decline is much smoother with transcendent players like A-Rod and I think he has at least one more MVP-type season in him.  He is a bona fide bargain at a very thin position as he goes mid-to-late second round in many leagues.  The best part about A-Rod, other than the fact that he’s finally healthy again, is that there’s a very high floor so why not invest?

Nick Swisher hits 38 home runs – He’s actually getting better the deeper he goes into his prime and though he hasn’t topped 29 in the last four seasons and 38 would be a career-high, the potential is there especially in that park.  He’s another guy with a high floor having played 150+ games each of the last five seasons.  The batting average isn’t quite the risk that many make it out to be as his .219 season in 2008 is now the clear outlier of his career.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Evan Longoria hits .324-41-133 – No, I’m not among those freaking out about his 11 homer  drop from 2009 to 2010.  After all, his OPS dropped a whopping .010 to .879.  This guy is a superstar and as such he will have some truly excellent seasons in his career.  I am looking at his age 25 in 2011 as the first such season.  All three figures would be career highs and while it wouldn’t necessarily come out of nowhere as he’s a clear first round pick, it would definitely be a profit-laden season.  Some outlets have questioned his mid-first round status, but I think it’s justified even if he “just” repeats 2010 because third base is so lame after the star cut.

James Shields posts a 3.25 ERA – His base skills actually showed significant improvement in 2010 yet his surface stats were the worst of his career because of an atrocious 1.5 home run rate.  He’s not a flyball-heavy pitcher, in fact he’s had a sub-40% flyball rate each of the last three years, yet when someone got a hold of one it was gone.  His skills are just too damn good for a 5.18 ERA or even the 4.14 ERA from 2009. I’m seeing a major course correction.

—

Toronto Blue Jays:

Ricky Romero shaves nearly a full walk off of his control rate and takes his ERA below 3.00 – I could see the strikeouts rising up above eight per game, but I’m not betting on it just yet as he seems to understand that inducing groundballs is the more efficient way of pitching.  I love that he has the groundball and strikeout in his arsenal.

Travis Snider completes his Adam Lind Path to Stardom – I hope he doesn’t take every step Adam Lind has after Lind’s 2010.  Both had a strong call up, then regressed in their true rookie season and bounced back to average in another half season of play.  Lind followed it up with an explosive 2009 hitting .305 with 35 HR and 114 RBIs.  I’m not sure Snider will hit .305, but he could also top the 35 homers that Lind hit.  I think a big season is in the offing and he’s two years younger than Lind was during his ascension.  Put Snider down for .270 and 38 bombs.  His RBIs will be determined by batting order.

Brandon Morrow improves his walk rate and cuts over a run off of his ERA – With his incredibly electric stuff, Morrow could accelerate his progression with improved command.  Regardless of how much he can improve his walk rate, I think there is a legitimate ceiling on Morrow’s 2011 because the Jays will cap his innings.  I could see the cap ending up somewhere around 175.  In a surprise announcement today, he will start the season on the disabled list with elbow inflammation.  Hopefully this curbs his value a few days before one of the biggest draft/auction weekends of the season.  As I mentioned re: Kevin Slowey yesterday, don’t draft for April.  If anything, take advantage of any inherent discount brought on by his missing a start or maybe two.

Next Up: AL Central

The goal is to put these up throughout the day tomorrow.  I didn’t realize how lengthy they were going to get as I originally intended to go AL/NL in a two-parter.  That would’ve been too long (that’s what she said) so I’m breaking it up by division.  I will also have my Middle Reliever Guide out this week.  I was hoping for today, but again this project expanded a bit more than I expected.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Bold Predictions, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 3 Comments »

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Tuesday: 03.22.2011

Walking the Walk

Have you ever wondered how much analysts follow the advice they dole out?  I get curious sometimes when I’m listening to various podcasts or reading different sites.  In case that is something you have wondered about me, I wanted to share some information from a 15-team mixed league draft I just completed.

All told, I drafted five of the pitchers from the list of 18 favorites for 2011:

Chad Billingsley (95th overall, 7th round)

Ricky Romero (176th overall, 12th round)

Edwin Jackson (245th overall, 17th round)

James McDonald (296th overall, 20th round)

Tim Stauffer (326th overall, 22nd round)

I had a few others queued up and watched as they were swiped right before I could take them.   Of the many interesting picks throughout the draft, one that is pertinent to this discussion was Brandon Morrow being taken 101st overall (7th round).  Remember what I said about him yesterday, “I think he is getting a little trendy raising his value, but that doesn’t dissuade me.”

Going that early does dissuade me.  I like him a lot, but I have my limits.  Notable names taken shortly after him that I value higher include: Shaun Marcum, Wandy Rodriguez, Colby Lewis, Brett Anderson, Hiroki Kuroda and Romero.  And that was just in the subsequent two rounds.  In a 15-team draft, you will have to extend out at times to get your target, but that was a bit egregious as far as I’m concerned.

Even though there is a near-100% chance nobody cares, here’s how my whole team turned out.  I picked 5th and it’s a hold + saves league otherwise standard 5×5 categories:

C – J.P. Arencibia

C – A.J. Pierzynski

1B – Billy Butler

2B – Omar Infante

3B – Evan Longoria

SS – Derek Jeter

CI – Gaby Sanchez

MI – Danny Espinosa

OF – Shin-Soo Choo

OF – Ichiro Suzuki

OF – Jay Bruce

OF – Nick Markakis

OF – J.D. Drew

UT – Adam Lind

BE – Juan Uribe

BE – Mark DeRosa

BE – Bill Hall

—

P1 – Chad Billingsley

P2 – Ricky Romero

P3 – John Lackey

P4 – Edwin Jackson

P5 – James McDonald

P6 – Tim Stauffer

P7 – Aroldis Chapman

P8 – Mike Adams

P9 – J.J. Putz

BE – Rick Porcello

BE – Randy Wells

BE – Jordan Walden

BE – Bobby Jenks

Miguel Cabrera was available at 5, but I went with Longoria because third base dries up in a hurry and I didn’t think Ryan Zimmerman would make it back to me in the 2nd round (I was right, he went 5 picks before me in that round).  I was going to build my infield with Dustin Pedroia in the 2nd round, but he went the pick before more so I shifted to outfield with Choo.  The same exact thing happened in the 3rd round as I was looking infield again with Jose Reyes and he went three picks before me so I shifted again to the outfield.

I think the depth/scarcity of outfield is consistently misperceived in these leagues with five outfield spots.  I do think there is some scarcity within the position in that middle area so I decided to build a beastly outfield since I covered the two scarcest positions very well (Longoria) and pretty well (Jeter).

I trust myself enough with pitching that I can work with this group and on the wire to put together a strong staff.  I would rather have enough offense at the outset and have to work on the pitching aspect than vice versa.  Consider one team that has Roy Halladay, C.C. Sabathia, Tommy Hanson, Chris Carpenter, Carlos Marmol, Brian Wilson and Jonathan Papelbon giving them the makings of a tremendous staff, but a severely lagging offense after Miguel Cabrera including an outfield “highlighted” by Brett Gardner along with Franklin Gutierrez, Johnny Damon, Matt Joyce and Seth Smith.

That’s just one example, of course.  But I got “my guys” on that pitching staff and if they perform as I expect/hope, I may not have to do much work on the wire, anyway.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Starting Pitchers, Strategy | 1 Comment »

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Tuesday: 03.22.2011

18 of My Favorite Pitchers for 2011, Part 2

Here is the second half of my favorites for this year:

Part 1

10. Kevin Slowey – Without a spot in the rotation his value is going to plummet, but it’s a buying opportunity.  Don’t draft solely for April.  It’s a 6-month grind and skills almost always win out.  Slowey has more talent than Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing, but to start the season both will have rotation spots while Slowey will work out of the bullpen.  Slowey will be an afterthought even in AL-Only leagues and I would be more than willing to slot in him as your 8th or 9th pitcher for a few bucks and wait for him to win a spot that he deserves.  A 4.6 K/BB rate doesn’t lie.  He’s long been one of my favorite pitchers and a poor decision by Minnesota at the beginning of the season isn’t going to change that.

11. Tim Stauffer – The former #4 pick overall took a while (29 y/o in 2011), but it looks like he’s finally paying dividends on that lofty draft status.  He plays in the perfect park for pitchers, showed a major uptick in groundballs last year (up to 55%) and has seen his team add strong middle infielders (Jason Bartlett & Orlando Hudson) to field those grounders adding up to a potential breakout season.  There is a slight premium on anyone in PETCO for obvious reasons, but Stauffer seems to be firmly entrenched off the radar in most standard drafts.  He went for $8 in NL Tout Wars and could easily return twice that when you consider what PETCO did for someone with lesser skills than Stauffer in Jon Garland.

12. Chris Narveson – His near-5.00 ERA from 2010 (4.99 in 168 IP) is sure to scare most away, but he pitched much better than that.  He doesn’t have the groundball tilt I usually like out of my pitchers, but with Milwaukee’s horrendous infield defense, that might not be such a bad thing.  He has nice base skills, the next step is learning to work with runners on so he can strand a few more guys.  Part of that is cutting down the long balls, too.  I think he takes a step forward in 2011 and ends up as one of those $1-3 glue guys instrumental in a team’s success.

13. Bud Norris – Like Narveson, his skills were better than his 4.92 ERA indicates, but many will pass based on that figure and the team name on his jersey.  I’d caution strongly against that as Norris has the kind of stuff that “out-of-nowhere” seasons are made of starting with his 9.3 K/9 rate being overshadowed by unimportant factors.  Are you one of those owners dying for an upside pick?  Norris is your guy.  The lofty strikeout rate is matched with an average groundball rate and a BABIP and LOB% combo worse than league norms that could be in for positive regression.  Even if he doesn’t take that major step forward this year, his sub-$5 price tag is at worst an even investment with all of the strikeouts.

14. Carlos Carrasco – We could have a budding Sporer Trifecta of Excellence (patent pending) profile on our hands.  It was only 45 innings of work last year, so temper the expectations a bit, but he had a 7.7 K/9 with an elite 57% groundball rate and his changeup was the best pitch in his arsenal.  This is a 3-time top 54 prospect (2007: 41, 2008: 54, 2009: 52) according to Baseball America so the pedigree is there, too.  Like Norris, his jersey will have some shying away or ignoring him completely, but his first full season in the majors could be a big one.

15. Derek Holland – It seems like I have been touting Holland for so long that he should be older than 24.  Alas, he doesn’t even have 200 major league innings under his belt yet here I am again espousing the virtues of this man’s abilities.  He started to come together in a 57-inning sample last year, but the loss of Cliff Lee opens an opportunity for him to finally prove it over a full season.  Although the sample was tiny, it was nice to see him greatly improve on 2009’s ugly 1.7 HR/9 down to 0.9 a season ago.  That’s about the limit for him if he is to have that breakthrough season many see as a possibility.  He’s one of those popular sleepers so be careful if his value gets too high in your league.

16. Jason Hammel – Similar to several guys on the list whereby he has above average base skills, but is missing one ingredient that keeps him from legitimate success.  For Hammel, it’s an ability to work with runners on as he his LOB% actually got further from league average 2010 leaving him with an ERA a half run higher despite improved skills.  You could easily be looking at $10+ profit out of Hammel if leaves a few extra men on base and continues or improves his already impressive skill set.

17. Chris Tillman – Remember when Tillman was the 22nd-ranked prospect in all of baseball?  It was alllll the way back in 2009.  He then proceeded to dominate AAA for 97 innings posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 9.2 K/9 and a 3.8 K/BB.  Later that season he was knocked around in 12 starts in his major league debut resulting in an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.  The skills were nothing like his minor league pedigree at 5.4 K/9 and 1.6 K/BB.  It was essentially rinse & repeat for 2010 with 121 strong innings at AAA then 54 ugly ones in the majors.  He turns 23 on Tax Day this year.  Too often the fantasy community gives up on top prospects if they don’t set the world afire right away a la Ryan Braun or Jered Weaver.  This is a post-hype play going for as little as a dollar in some AL-Only leagues who could end up as a tremendous keeper for 2012 and beyond.  Worst case is he is still not ready in 2011 and you cut bait with little invested.

18. Ross Detwiler – This is my biggest spec play of the bunch.  I just think there could be something here with Detwiler.  He has 278 innings of minor league success suggesting he is better than the 106 innings of major league work thus far.  He is the left-handed Tillman with less fanfare and a few years older (OK, I guess there are a enough differences to make that a bad comp).  Point being he showed enough in the minors to be something of a top prospect and though he hasn’t put it all together at the major league level yet, there is reason to believe he still can and will.  Furthering his spec play status is the fact that he’s not going to have a rotation spot on Opening Day, but the four surrounding Jordan Zimmermann are neither bastions of health, nor particularly skilled at pitching so he will get a shot at some point.  If he doesn’t win a bullpen spot, just monitor him.  But if he does make the team out of camp, he could be a high strikeout $1 reliever as he bides his time for a rotation chance.

So there they are, my favorite 18 for 2011.  There is something in here for everyone regardless of what kind of league format you play in.  I guess the only thing missing is minor league prospects, but I posted 50 from each league just a few weeks ago, so you know who I like there.  I know it’s a big draft/auction week for everybody so I’m trying to get as much material out as possible for your last minute prep.  I have a draft tonight, but hopefully I can get another piece up shortly after it finishes.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Spring Training, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 3 Comments »

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Monday: 03.21.2011

18 of My Favorite Pitchers for 2011, Part 1

Any fantasy baseball magazine, book or website is bound to have a sleepers section somewhere.  They are a fantasy staple loved by all and for good reason as everyone is looking to get the next big thing at a great price that will propel them to a title and help them for years to come if they play in a keeper league.

Of course in the Information Age we live in these days, it is really hard to get anything by your leaguemates in terms of a legitimate sleeper.  The more obvious sleepers turn up in seemingly every one of these articles all of sudden making them overvalued or at least just fairly priced sapping the value.  I am not here to bash sleeper articles as I have done them for the last five or six years whether here or at the various outlets I have worked for in the past.  I wanted to try a different approach this year.

Instead of worrying about sleeper label and pretending like we are pulling a fast one on our leaguemates, let’s just look at some guys I like for 2011.  These aren’t necessarily sleepers as many will be firmly entrenched on the radar of your opponents.  Nor are they necessarily breakout candidates, either.  After all, who really knows what defines a breakout?  It can mean 10 different things to 10 different people.

If you read the Starting Pitching Guide then you won’t be surprised by some of these guys as I made it clear how much I liked them there by suggesting you aggressively buy in or go the extra dollar or a host of other ways I used to convey my excitement for them.  Essentially if they are on this list, I like them more than their current projection meaning there is profit to gained.  There isn’t a uniform theme to this piece so let’s just get started with the names and you’ll see what I mean.

1. Cole Hamels – Seeing Hamels on a list like this might come as a surprise after all he doesn’t fall too far out of the top 10 starting pitchers in most drafts.  His inclusion is due to the fact that I have him as a top 5 guy for 2011.  He has Cy Young-quality stuff.  It was a travesty that his pitching led to just 12 wins, but that’s why judging pitchers on wins is foolish.  He is a bit overshadowed by teammates Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt, but I think he’s the best bet from a production-to-cost ratio.

2. Tommy Hanson – Like Hamels, this is a superstar in the making, but an overreaction to a 10-11 record from 2010 is depressing his value a bit.  Guys like Hamels and Hanson are the ones who will be my aces in 12-team mixed leagues because I refuse to pay the premium attached to the Lincecums and Felixes of the world.  If you’re looking for guys to take Ubaldian leaps from good to great, target Hanson and this next guy…

3. Chad Billingsley – Noticing a trend with these first three guys?  Billingsley also had a record that belied his true value going 12-11 for the second straight season masking his return to 2008’s 2.5 K/BB and a career best 0.4 HR/9.  Are you surprised to learn that he is just 26 years old?  In a standard 12-team mixer, I’m building my hitting base filling in some scarcity fields like shortstop (if I can get Hanley or Tulow), third base and outfield (remember, we need five) while taking advantage of the first base depth with those first 6-8 picks then pairing Hanson and Billingsley as my 1-2 punch.  My offense is going to be better than the guy who took Halladay in round 1 or 2 and my pitching is going to nearly on par and potentially better even if he paired a Sabathia or Weaver with him using yet another early round pick.

4. Brandon Morrow – I think he is getting a little trendy raising his value, but that doesn’t dissuade me.  Last year, I loved Gio Gonzalez and Jonathan Sanchez to make big leaps forward and they didn’t let me down.  Morrow is my guy of that class this year.  If he can shave a full walk off of his rate like Gonzalez did, he would be near 3.0 and if it didn’t cost him over two strikeouts in the process (as it did Gonzalez), he can be truly elite.

5. Ricky Romero – I love me some Blue Jays this year.  I will lift a quote from myself from the Guide re: Romero, “Romero meets the three criteria of Sporer Trifecta of Excellence (patent pending) with a strong strikeout rate (7.5 K/9), a truly elite groundball rate (55% career) and an above average changeup (though it was valued higher in ’09)”.  He has the stuff to take a step forward, but even a 2010 repeat has value at the cost I’m seeing for him in the two drafts I have already done and the expert leagues that have already taken place.

6. Hiroki Kuroda – A victim in the W-L column going just 11-13 last year despite a very strong skill set.  He has managed three straight sub-3.80 ERA seasons in the majors despite failing to reach even 70% LOB% let alone the league average 72% mark.  His age (36) undoubtedly scares some off, but nothing in his profile warrants fear (50%+ GB rate, 2.2 or better BB/9 and improving K/9 reached 7.3 last year).  He comes cheaper or at the same cost as the likes Matt Garza and Tim Hudson despite a more stable set of skills and even a tick of upside if that LOB% bumps up to average.

7. Edwin Jackson – Not much love out there for Jackson for some reason.  Maybe because it took him so long to begin paying any sort of dividends on his elite prospect status (4th in baseball in 2004) or because he teased and tantalized with so many false starts prior to that breakout year in Detroit back in 2009.  In Don Cooper I trust.  In 75 innings he righted Jackson’s season from the disaster it was in Arizona assisting Jackson to eight quality starts out of 11 including a run of three in which he struck out 11, 10 and 11.  I think Cooper and the Sox will finally extract the best out of Jackson for a full season returning a sharp profit on his current value.

8. James McDonald – This is the third year of me driving the McDonald Bandwagon.  He’s just getting going after a trade to the Pirates finally got him into a rotation so I’m not going anywhere now.  He went for $4 in NL Tout Wars over the weekend.  He is the kind of endgame play that can yield $10+ dollars of profit and be integral to a championship run.  Frankly I’m surprised he was so cheap as he has popped up on a lot of sleeper lists this offseason, much to my chagrin.

9. Jordan Zimmermann – He got a nice little 71-inning (31 in the majors) tune up last year coming back from Tommy John Surgery displaying 99% of his velocity from 2009 (92 of 93 MPH) and posted some decent stats albeit in smallish sample.  I am quite intrigued by what he can do in a full season (though a full season this year may mean  approx. 170 innings) having displayed strikeout an inning stuff throughout his minor league career as well as the 91 innings from his rookie year.  Injury returns are often a great source of profit and Zimmermann will be a prime candidate in this field for 2011.

Tomorrow’s portion of the list will feature nine names geared more towards single leagues and deeper mixed leagues.  That doesn’t mean they are entirely out of play for 10 and 12 mixed leaguers, especially if you have a reserve roster or taxi squad, but a lot of those leagues will have several of these guys on the waiver wire after the draft.

Ed. Note – if you’re wondering where Dan Haren is on this list, I figured he was too obvious to include.  If you’ve been reading my work at all this offseason, participated in the chat I hosted a few weeks back or talked with me via Twitter, you know how much I love this guy for 2011 (and beyond for that matter).  He is an unheralded ace with one of the best and most stable skills profiles in all of baseball.  He was tied with Max Scherzer as the 6th most expensive starter in AL Tout Wars ($20), a bargain in my book.  I have him 3rd-best in the AL behind Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester, just ahead of Justin Verlander.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Spring Training, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 3 Comments »

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Tuesday: 03.8.2011

Baseball Podcast Recommendation List

This will serve as the 3/8 Daily Dose

I grew up loving sports radio.  I used to listen to WDFN in Detroit all the time and eventually I began calling in.  The evening show in Detroit was hosted by a guy named Mega Man Ike Griffin and I loved the show.  I would write down all of my points, wait on hold for 30+ minutes and then deliver my thoughts in 1-2 minute spurts almost nightly.

One of my best sports radio memories was going to an on-site of Griffin’s show with my mom, best friend and sister.  Detroit Lions defensive end Robert Porcher was a guest and they had a Porcher-related trivia question for his tickets at the upcoming game against the Packers.  You had to name the mascot of Porcher’s alma mater, South Carolina State.  I instantly raised my hand despite the fact that I really didn’t have a clue what the answer was for this question.

I knew South Carolina was the Gamecocks, but that knowledge would be useless to me here.  Thankfully my mom was on hand.  It was her idea to just guess Bulldogs, seeing as it was a popular enough nickname that we might get it right.  And we sure did!  A few weeks later I was sitting 7th row in Porcher’s seats enjoying an excellent game that the Lions won (it was pretty rare back then, too).

We moved to Harlingen, TX when I was 14 and it took me a while to even find the lone sports talk radio station there.  For the years I lived there (3, sophomore-senior years of high school) it was purely an affiliate with no local stuff.  That made sense as there wasn’t a pro or even a viable college team anywhere in the area so there was no real need for a local flavor for the national stuff.  Might as well just stick with the pros.  We had Sporting News Radio then Fox Sports Radio followed finally by ESPN Radio.

I listened to it a lot in high school.  My dad and I would listen every day when he drove me to school and I would listen on summer nights when I stayed up late playing baseball simulators online (Jeez, I was [am?] a dork!).  Just like when I was in Detroit, I loved to call in.  Sometimes I’d wait even longer on the national shows, especially during peak hours, but I had my handy notes and an inexplicable amount of patience just so I could be heard.  I’d get most excited when I could actually respond to the host’s response instead of saying my initial piece and then having to listen to them offline.

I have taken the long way of showing how far back my love for sports talk goes with the point being that I didn’t just happen upon podcasts.  After loving sports talk radio for years, podcasts were a natural step in the process.  First off, the local stuff here in Austin isn’t very good even with two stations now.  Secondly, I cannot stand the fact that it feels like 43 minutes of every hour is commercial-laden.  So when I discovered podcasts were essentially commercial-less sports talk radio, I was immediately hooked.  Not only did they cut out my least favorite part of sports radio, but the content is often much better, too.

This all leads to my podcast recommendation list.  I listen to sports-related podcasts almost exclusively with a few general topic ones sprinkled in, but for the sake of this list, I’m going to whittle it down to baseball only.  There are different types and formats here so I’m sure there is something for everyone.  Or at least everyone who enjoys listening to baseball talk on some level.

By the way, if there is something missing on this list that you think needs to be a part of it, please don’t hesitate to leave a comment or hit me on Twitter because I’m always up to give a podcast a shot.

(UPDATED: MAY 23rd-Podcasts added and some commentary to previously listed podcasts has been added, too.  That commentary can be found in italics at the end of the original write up.)

FanGraphs Audio – Mix the usually sharp insights of FanGraphs.com analysts with the irreverent wit of host Carson Cistulli and it’s a winning combination.  Cistulli also brings in non-FanGraphs guests which only improves the show.  Check out a recent episode with player Matt Antonelli and I dare you not to become a fan of his almost instantly.  Oh and while it may not be for everybody, I for one love the intro music with Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass.  Yes, I even bought it on iTunes.  It’s called “The Charmer” and it’s available for a scant $0.99, iTunes giftcard FTW!

As for frequency of the show, I think it will ramp it up as the season gets nearer.  There were four in February and there were two right off the bat in March, so while they don’t keep a regular schedule I’d expect four-five per month during the season.  It checks in between 35 and 50 minutes per show.

MLB.com Fantasy 411 – This is one of the first shows I started listening to years ago.  It used to be a daily show that could be podcasted, but it has evolved into a television show on the MLB Network that will likely start soon and I believe runs 4:30-5:00 (new time!) 1:30 PM central when it’s not preempted and podcast-only.  I think they podcast most episodes, but like ESPN’s PTI, it’s better to watch since it’s a show with graphics and highlights.  Still, hosts Mike Siano and Cory Schwartz will do an episode every once in a while that is podcast only.  Great content and analysis with humor thrown is what you can expect to find on this show.  I would definitely keep it in your iTunes feed, but also set your DVR to record daily.

Baseball America Podcast – Attention prospect mavens and wannabe prospect mavens, this is your podcast.  It runs often with a college rundown focusing on the Top 25 each week, draft podcasts throughout May and prospect roundup episodes all throughout the season.  Of course they do top 100 prospect stuff around this time each year (which they ran back on Feb. 23rd with the recent list), too.

They stay busy in the offseason as well with 18 podcasts since the season ended through today and if you want to only count mid-October to mid-February as kind of the dead period, 14 of the 18 came in that 4-month timeframe.  Time fluctuates based on the topic.  They are usually at least 30 minutes, but bigger topics stretch past an hour (top 100 coverage, draft report cards, signing deadline, etc…).

If you don’t have time to subscribe and digest all the fantastic writing on their site and in the bi-weekly (I believe) magazine, then this is a great substitute.  If you do subscribe to the site and/or the mag, this is the perfect supplement for your commute, dog walks or whenever you like to listen to podcasts.

The Jonah Keri Podcast – This one isn’t purely baseball, but it skews baseball enough to be included.  I’ve already recommended this in a previous Daily Dose, so I won’t just rehash everything again.  It’s a great podcast that has quickly become one of my favorites.  Keri reels in brilliant guests weekly (oftentimes more than once a week) and discusses a range of topics touching sports, pop culture, technology and the writing profession among others.  Baseball and college hoops seem to be his favorite sports with the podcast leaning toward the former thus far.  As he is Canadian, he also likes hockey a good bit and isn’t afraid to do a full episode on it either.  As a native Detroiter, I like hockey plenty but the coverage is scant here in Austin, TX.

The show is a must-listen for anyone who likes podcasts and likes sports.

Up & In: The Baseball Prospectus Podcast – If you’re not a fan of long-form podcasts, then you’re out on this one from the jump.  They routinely run two hours and sometimes push the two and a half hour mark.  Hosts Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks are the opinionated minds behind this operation and if you’re easily offended, you may want to pass.  So now that I’ve given you two reasons not to listen, here are two reasons you would want to listen.  The long-form is awesome to me so it’s a plus in my book, but I know it can go either way toward attracting or dissuading listeners.  And the fact that Goldstein and Parks are direct with their opinions is another plus for me that can put off some.

They are prospect guys from the scouting side of the ledger when it comes to their baseball knowledge, but they understand stats and incorporate at times (they aren’t afraid to dismiss them entirely, though, either).  I think they give deep and interesting perspectives on a wide range of topics in the game and that’s what drew me in from the start (I’m a point-9’er).  They segment the show so if you only want the baseball portion or only want, as Kevin calls it, the goofy stuff, then you can pick the spots you want with his handy timed segment guide attached to each episode.

Sometimes I find their music snobbery a bit overbearing as it seems they like some of the stuff just because it’s not popular.  Honestly a lot of it is utter trash to me.  But that’s my opinion and I don’t mind that they like it.  I just think they should be the same way about mainstream music they don’t like… just move on.  No one cares that you don’t like it.  That aside, the baseball talk is plentiful and rich enough to easily overlook the slight annoyance that their condescension toward most things popular triggers (Jason does make a good point that they can’t be pegged as hating all things popular as he loves the Beatles more than anything).

If you want good baseball talk, great guests and colorful language, then you need to be listening to this show.

ESPN Fantasy Focus: Baseball – Another ESPN offering, Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz are well-known in the industry far beyond the reaches of this podcast.  They also both play in Tout Wars leagues, too.  As for the show, it appeals to a more broad fantasy baseball player.  The standard league they discuss is a 10-team mixed which just isn’t my cup of tea.  That said, there is still some good discussion of players that range beyond standard league value and it’s worth a listen.

At times they can veer off topic a bit too much for my liking, but they are upfront that it’s a part of the show so if you don’t like it, it’s more of a “you problem” than something with them.  It’s a fun listen and a worthwhile way to pass 30-40 minutes a day.  I’ve also heard from some of my friends that both guys are really cool in person so even if you don’t love their on-air personas, they seem to be relatively well-liked guys within the industry.

I always keep them on the iTunes list.  I love when they debate and you get both sides of a player, though.  That, to me, is very useful.  Give it a shot and see how they sit with you.  Plus, the theme song is awesome.  Gets in my head every day and I don’t mind.  Update 5/23 – This is arguably their best season, in my opinion. They’ve done a great job branching out their coverage from just 10-team league-relevant information.  They’ve got some funny segments that they have added and they have just the right amount of silly stuff, again in my opinion.  It’s been a must-listen for me this season.  

Beyond the Box Score Podcast* – Another recent feature of the Podcast Recommendation of a past Daily Dose, the BTBS podcast is quickly climbing the list as one of my favorites.  It’s another long-form podcast (1.5-2 hours) filled with guests and plenty of banter between hosts Dave Gershman and Matt Klassen.  I’ve told the two before that I think sometimes Matt steamrolls Dave a bit too much and comes across too eager to get his point across, but they let me know that Matt was encouraged to speak up when he saw fit.  But they are just seven episodes in (eight should come out today sometime) so they are still getting into their groove.

Gershman is booking great guests and they usually have a couple per episode, but even a guest-less episode with just Gershman and Klassen riffing on a variety of topics would be worth listening to as well.  I’m not a fan of the bumper music between segments (The Bare Necessities), but something like that isn’t going to drive me away from a show or else I’d almost never listen to Up & In.  Update 5/23 – Dave wins, the bumper music has grown on me. 

* (Now in iTunes!)

ESPN Baseball Today – I’ve been listening to this show since it started waaaaaaay back in 2006 when Alan Schwarz was hosting.  I absolutely loved the show when Schwarz hosted it.  That’s nothing against the hosts since, but he was just fantastic.  There was a lull last season and I wasn’t listening much as I didn’t love Seth Everett partnering with Eric Karabell, but Karabell has added Keith Law and contributor turned co-host Mark Simon for the 2011 season making it a must-listen once again.

ESPN likes to keep their podcasts under an hour and most check in around 30 minutes.  Baseball Today tops 30 most days, but rarely goes much longer than 40.  I think it’s probably the wheelhouse amount of time for most.  With Law and Simon joining Karabell, I’d love if they went long-form for an hour-plus a day, but that’s not going to happen so I’ll have to take my 30-40 minutes.  Update 5/23 – I was looking a lot more forward to this earlier in the preseason, but Law’s overwhelming negativity, which comes across as shtick at this point, is just too much.  It is making it hard to listen to on some days.  You literally expect him to take the negative angle to every single topic.  I think Karabell worries about what Law thinks a little too much, too.  He also worries way too much about going into “extra innings”, which is over an allotted time set by his producer Podvader.  First off, most people don’t mind if pods run long, but more to the point, settle that off-air with your co-host and producer.  Considering that it happens more often than not, what is the point of mentioning it at this point? 

Baseball Daily Digest – My good friend Joel Henard hosts a twice-a-week show with one as a general baseball show with co-host Albert Lang and the other covering his favorite team, the Chicago White Sox, with co-host Mike Rudd.  I only listen to the general one every week, but since I like Joel’s style so much I will tune into the White Sox one every once in a while, too.  Joel also just finished his excellent Fantasy February series where he had several guests from the industry to cover a host of topics.  This is a passion of Joel’s and that comes through in the shows.  They are hosted at Blog Talk Radio so they are hour-long timeslots and I highly recommend tuning in, especially because sometimes you can hear yours truly doing a special co-hosting spot.

Betting Dork w/Gil Alexander – Another niche podcast, the topic of this one is pretty obvious in the title and I haven’t been listening to it long, but I really liked the football betting analysis and Gil’s favorite sport to bet on is baseball so I’m anticipating liking this even more as we approach the season.  To be honest, I don’t even bet much these days, but I just enjoy hearing him and his guests uncover angles and discuss trends.  Sometimes he just has guests on talk about a particular sport without the betting angle.  He does that with Marc Spears of Yahoo! to talk about basketball and I’m hoping he has baseball guests on like that during the summer.

Baseball HQ Radio – If you like the insightful numbers-based analysis of the BaseballHQ.com writing staff, then chances are you will enjoy this podcast.  It’s essentially an hour-long version of the website.  Host Patrick Davitt starts by bringing on Harold Nichols and Matt Beagle to discuss the NL and AL, respectively.  They each cover a handful of guys in their league going into the second and third level of their stats and giving you the scoop on whether they are worth owning, trading or acquiring in your league.  After that Davitt has on his guest of the week which is someone from the fantasy baseball industry (sometimes part of the HQ family) and they have a 20-30 minute chat.

The main guest spot is followed by weekly segments that include a prospect round up, Beagle on again for Market Pulse, a new segment on keeper leagues and finally Ron Shandler’s Master Notes to close out the show.  It’s different from a lot of the shows on this list, but I find it enjoyable and it is definitely ripe with worthwhile information.

Broken Bat Single – Right off the bat, this is a Kansas City Royals-themed show so if you have no interest in the goings on of that team, then you probably think that you don’t want to listen to this show.  I would encourage you to at least give it a shot if you’re a fan of baseball podcasts.  I don’t have great interest in the Royals (as y’all probably know, I’m a Tigers fan), but I do love good baseball talk and that’s what Nick Scott offers on his show.  Scott books strong guests (I really enjoyed the episode with the GM of the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the AA team for KC) and covers the team top to bottom while also mixing in some general MLB and non-KC Central Division coverage as well.  The shows run an hour to an hour-plus, but like all of these long-form ones, it is easy to pick up where you left off if you can’t listen to it all at once.

The Detroit Tigers Podcast – While we are on the topic of team-specific podcasts, I will plug one for my favorite team.  Ian Casselberry and Mike McClary essentially do what Broken Bat Single does only for the Tigers, so of course I love it.  Again, if you’re not into team-centric shows, then you’re not going to like this, BBS or Joel’s White Sox show (it’s purely coincidental that all three are AL Central teams).

Baseball Press Podcast – Are you looking for a quicker baseball fix?  The Baseball Press Podcast is right up your alley.  The guys over at BaseballPress.com over a sub-30 minute (most of the time) covering the goings on of the game around once a week during the season.  They are in the midst of their team preview episodes right now with guests from various blogs and other outlets to talk about the team of the night.

CBS Fantasy Baseball Podcast – I used to really dislike this podcast because one of the co-hosts was just insufferable.  I couldn’t listen to his trite pet theories and terrible analysis so I had to abandon ship on this one.  A few weeks ago when I was going through iTunes looking at stuff, I came across it again and decided to look through and see what new episodes they had done.  I saw they had started their positional preview episodes and this person was no longer a part of the show so I gave it a shot again.  I’m glad I did because it’s pretty enjoyable.  A three man booth with essentially a mediator and then the two analysts going back and forth, they went in depth at every single position and have followed that up with episodes dedicated to sleepers, breakouts and busts.

In season they do a few different shows each week: the weekly preview, the most added/dropped players and a recap/injury show on either Monday or Tuesday and sometimes both.  Episodes vary from 30-50 minutes long depending on what they need to cover.  They won’t cut time if the topic is meaty, but they won’t fluff it up if there isn’t anything to talk about, either (a mid-September add/drop show was 15’ long).  This is just hardcore fantasy analysis and it’s pretty enjoyable.

Bloomberg Sports’ Behind the Numbers – I really enjoyed this show during the season, but there hasn’t been a new episode since October 15th so I’m not sure if it will be back for season 2.  Last year it didn’t start until March 26th, so I won’t write it off for 2011 until April.  I’d put it in your iTunes for now and just wait and see.  They get great guests and it’s a show that generally checks in under 30 minutes, if I remember correctly.  Update 5/23: A few random episodes popped up a few weeks ago, but only one would download and it was a preview episode that included a Jonah Keri interview.  I guess this isn’t coming back full-time this year. 

CBS Baseball Podcast – This podcast in its current iteration as Ear on Baseball is just five episodes old and I’ve only heard two.  One was with Kevin Goldstein, who believes C. Trent Rosencrans (the host) and others with recent baseball podcasts have lifted their format from Up & In, and the other was with some band called The Baseball Project that I just couldn’t get through.  The guys in the band sounded nice enough, but it wasn’t something I was particularly interested in and I jumped to a few spots to see if it was the entire episode or just part of it and it was the whole thing.

I realize Goldstein is kinda joking with his friend when he says he stole the format, but he’s also kinda serious.  I didn’t see anything from Goldstein’s format in Rosencrans’ show.  Nor did Goldstein make up the format for long-form podcasts.  They have a very enjoyable show that I have liked since it came out, but podcasts were out loooong before Up & In started!

At this point, I’d have to give this show an incomplete grade because I’ve only really listened to one full episode.  Update: 5/23 – They did a handful of strong episodes February-April, but then there hasn’t been an update since April 7th so I guess it’s done. 

The New Additions: (May 23rd)

The Baseball Show with Rany & Joe – Rany Jazayerli and Joe Sheenan are long-time friends and industry stalwarts when it comes to baseball.  As Joe tells it, they used to have extended phone calls where they would just talk about everything that was going on in baseball so given the rise in podcasts, they decided to just start recording these calls and sharing them with the world.  If you enjoyed the writing of these two back at Baseball Prospectus or currently enjoy them either at Rany on the Royals or in Sheehan’s Newsletter, then you’ll definitely like this show.

Sports Poscast with Joe Posnanski – I was absolutely thrilled to learn that Joe Posnanski was starting a podcast and 11 episodes in, it has not disappointed.  It isn’t a pure baseball podcast, but there is enough baseball content for it to crack the list especially as we inch closer to summer.  He has done three episodes (technically four as one was a two-parter) with the creator of the best show on TV, Michael Schur (Parks & Rec.), including one where they did a fantasy draft of baseball books which was amazing.  He’s also had Bob Costas, Bill James, Ian O’Connor (who recently released a book about Derek Jeter) and Giants announcer Duane Kuiper for his baseball-centric episodes.  The only no-baseball episode was with Kevin Harlan.  This is quickly becoming one of my favorites.

Hot Clicks Podcast with Jimmy Traina – Another one that isn’t all baseball, but eminently listenable regardless of the guest.  I discovered the podcast this weekend and listened to all nine episodes.  The Logan Morrison and C.J. Wilson episodes are must-listens from a baseball perspective.  I also enjoyed the James Andrew Miller (co-author of Those Guys Have All the Fun: Inside the World of ESPN which releases May 24th), Erin Andrews and Chris Cooley episodes quite a bit.  If you enjoy Traina’s twice-daily link roundup at Sports Illustrated, you will probably like his podcast.

Bizball Radio – If you enjoy Maury Brown’s great work on the business of sports network (and specifically baseball) then you will no doubt enjoy this podcast where Brown speaks with some of the most intriguing guests in the sports business field.  Like some of these additions, it isn’t all baseball all the time especially with a topic like the NFL Lockout to speak about, but all except one of his guests (George Atallah from the NFLPA) was either mostly baseball talk or at least some within their episode.

Podcast To Be Named Later – Jason Collette and company from DRaysBay.com have resurrected this Tampa Bay-centric podcast.  Like the other team-focused podcasts on the list, it is best if you are a fan of that team, but if you are a diehard baseball fan in need of more podcasts then you will enjoy listening to this roundtable discussion of one of the league’s best teams.

Fantasy Pros 911 Podcast – Rich Wilson, Tony Cincotta and Tim McLeod get together every Sunday night for an hour to talk about the week that was and the one coming up in fantasy baseball.  They cover plenty of topics in their hour-plus (the first hour is always live on BlogTalkRadio while anything additional bleeds over onto the podcast only) with information for all fantasy players regardless of league size and format.  They engage their chatroom very well, too, and also respond to emails the following week.  The sound quality leaves a little to be desired, but I believe the only way to go truly live on BTR is over the phone which precludes them from recording on Skype and then posting a cleaner recording to the site.  I might trade the live aspect for better sound, but that would take away their interactive with the chatroom which is a key aspect to the show.

Posted in Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Podcast, Radio Show | 19 Comments »

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Friday: 03.4.2011

Donation Jersey Contest Update

I got a couple of emails the last day or two asking about the Donation Jersey Contest related to the Starting Pitcher Guide.  Instead of charging, I wanted to give users of the SP Guide the option to donate to the Guide if they saw fit.  In exchange for the donation, you not only get the Guide of course, but you also get entered into a drawing for a Tim Lincecum or Justin Verlander jersey.  I will do the drawing shortly after Opening Day (which is March 31st).  This gives everyone a legitimate chance to read through the Guide and truly decide if they want to donate and enter the contest.

I wanted to sincerely thank all of you who have already donated.  I am truly grateful that you deemed the project worthy of your hard-earned money.  It’s a really cool feeling when people make that kind of commentary on your work by choosing to give their money for the product.  So all of you who have donated, thank you very much and also sit tight as you are entered into the drawing.  Anyone still interested, there is time and there is no threshold donation to get you in.  If you donate, you’re in.  I will probably record the drawing on my FlipCam and throw it up on YouTube.  Like I said, that will be in early April sometime so enjoy the book and good luck in your drafts & auctions that are coming up.

Upcoming on the site there will be:

  • Podcast Recommendation List
  • Top Pitching Prospect List
  • Sleepers List
  • Positional Tiers List
  • Hitter Capsules (provided by BaseballGuys.com‘s Ray Flowers)
  • Middle Reliever Methodology
  • Some stuff on Closers
  • More 3 Questions entries
  • Bold Predictions column
  • and of course Daily Doses

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Jersey Contest, Starting Pitchers | 2 Comments »

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