Archive for March, 2011

« Older Entries  |   Newer Entries »
Tuesday: 03.22.2011

18 of My Favorite Pitchers for 2011, Part 2

Here is the second half of my favorites for this year:

Part 1

10. Kevin Slowey – Without a spot in the rotation his value is going to plummet, but it’s a buying opportunity.  Don’t draft solely for April.  It’s a 6-month grind and skills almost always win out.  Slowey has more talent than Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing, but to start the season both will have rotation spots while Slowey will work out of the bullpen.  Slowey will be an afterthought even in AL-Only leagues and I would be more than willing to slot in him as your 8th or 9th pitcher for a few bucks and wait for him to win a spot that he deserves.  A 4.6 K/BB rate doesn’t lie.  He’s long been one of my favorite pitchers and a poor decision by Minnesota at the beginning of the season isn’t going to change that.

11. Tim Stauffer – The former #4 pick overall took a while (29 y/o in 2011), but it looks like he’s finally paying dividends on that lofty draft status.  He plays in the perfect park for pitchers, showed a major uptick in groundballs last year (up to 55%) and has seen his team add strong middle infielders (Jason Bartlett & Orlando Hudson) to field those grounders adding up to a potential breakout season.  There is a slight premium on anyone in PETCO for obvious reasons, but Stauffer seems to be firmly entrenched off the radar in most standard drafts.  He went for $8 in NL Tout Wars and could easily return twice that when you consider what PETCO did for someone with lesser skills than Stauffer in Jon Garland.

12. Chris Narveson – His near-5.00 ERA from 2010 (4.99 in 168 IP) is sure to scare most away, but he pitched much better than that.  He doesn’t have the groundball tilt I usually like out of my pitchers, but with Milwaukee’s horrendous infield defense, that might not be such a bad thing.  He has nice base skills, the next step is learning to work with runners on so he can strand a few more guys.  Part of that is cutting down the long balls, too.  I think he takes a step forward in 2011 and ends up as one of those $1-3 glue guys instrumental in a team’s success.

13. Bud Norris – Like Narveson, his skills were better than his 4.92 ERA indicates, but many will pass based on that figure and the team name on his jersey.  I’d caution strongly against that as Norris has the kind of stuff that “out-of-nowhere” seasons are made of starting with his 9.3 K/9 rate being overshadowed by unimportant factors.  Are you one of those owners dying for an upside pick?  Norris is your guy.  The lofty strikeout rate is matched with an average groundball rate and a BABIP and LOB% combo worse than league norms that could be in for positive regression.  Even if he doesn’t take that major step forward this year, his sub-$5 price tag is at worst an even investment with all of the strikeouts.

14. Carlos Carrasco – We could have a budding Sporer Trifecta of Excellence (patent pending) profile on our hands.  It was only 45 innings of work last year, so temper the expectations a bit, but he had a 7.7 K/9 with an elite 57% groundball rate and his changeup was the best pitch in his arsenal.  This is a 3-time top 54 prospect (2007: 41, 2008: 54, 2009: 52) according to Baseball America so the pedigree is there, too.  Like Norris, his jersey will have some shying away or ignoring him completely, but his first full season in the majors could be a big one.

15. Derek Holland – It seems like I have been touting Holland for so long that he should be older than 24.  Alas, he doesn’t even have 200 major league innings under his belt yet here I am again espousing the virtues of this man’s abilities.  He started to come together in a 57-inning sample last year, but the loss of Cliff Lee opens an opportunity for him to finally prove it over a full season.  Although the sample was tiny, it was nice to see him greatly improve on 2009’s ugly 1.7 HR/9 down to 0.9 a season ago.  That’s about the limit for him if he is to have that breakthrough season many see as a possibility.  He’s one of those popular sleepers so be careful if his value gets too high in your league.

16. Jason Hammel – Similar to several guys on the list whereby he has above average base skills, but is missing one ingredient that keeps him from legitimate success.  For Hammel, it’s an ability to work with runners on as he his LOB% actually got further from league average 2010 leaving him with an ERA a half run higher despite improved skills.  You could easily be looking at $10+ profit out of Hammel if leaves a few extra men on base and continues or improves his already impressive skill set.

17. Chris Tillman – Remember when Tillman was the 22nd-ranked prospect in all of baseball?  It was alllll the way back in 2009.  He then proceeded to dominate AAA for 97 innings posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 9.2 K/9 and a 3.8 K/BB.  Later that season he was knocked around in 12 starts in his major league debut resulting in an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.  The skills were nothing like his minor league pedigree at 5.4 K/9 and 1.6 K/BB.  It was essentially rinse & repeat for 2010 with 121 strong innings at AAA then 54 ugly ones in the majors.  He turns 23 on Tax Day this year.  Too often the fantasy community gives up on top prospects if they don’t set the world afire right away a la Ryan Braun or Jered Weaver.  This is a post-hype play going for as little as a dollar in some AL-Only leagues who could end up as a tremendous keeper for 2012 and beyond.  Worst case is he is still not ready in 2011 and you cut bait with little invested.

18. Ross Detwiler – This is my biggest spec play of the bunch.  I just think there could be something here with Detwiler.  He has 278 innings of minor league success suggesting he is better than the 106 innings of major league work thus far.  He is the left-handed Tillman with less fanfare and a few years older (OK, I guess there are a enough differences to make that a bad comp).  Point being he showed enough in the minors to be something of a top prospect and though he hasn’t put it all together at the major league level yet, there is reason to believe he still can and will.  Furthering his spec play status is the fact that he’s not going to have a rotation spot on Opening Day, but the four surrounding Jordan Zimmermann are neither bastions of health, nor particularly skilled at pitching so he will get a shot at some point.  If he doesn’t win a bullpen spot, just monitor him.  But if he does make the team out of camp, he could be a high strikeout $1 reliever as he bides his time for a rotation chance.

So there they are, my favorite 18 for 2011.  There is something in here for everyone regardless of what kind of league format you play in.  I guess the only thing missing is minor league prospects, but I posted 50 from each league just a few weeks ago, so you know who I like there.  I know it’s a big draft/auction week for everybody so I’m trying to get as much material out as possible for your last minute prep.  I have a draft tonight, but hopefully I can get another piece up shortly after it finishes.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Spring Training, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 3 Comments »

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Monday: 03.21.2011

18 of My Favorite Pitchers for 2011, Part 1

Any fantasy baseball magazine, book or website is bound to have a sleepers section somewhere.  They are a fantasy staple loved by all and for good reason as everyone is looking to get the next big thing at a great price that will propel them to a title and help them for years to come if they play in a keeper league.

Of course in the Information Age we live in these days, it is really hard to get anything by your leaguemates in terms of a legitimate sleeper.  The more obvious sleepers turn up in seemingly every one of these articles all of sudden making them overvalued or at least just fairly priced sapping the value.  I am not here to bash sleeper articles as I have done them for the last five or six years whether here or at the various outlets I have worked for in the past.  I wanted to try a different approach this year.

Instead of worrying about sleeper label and pretending like we are pulling a fast one on our leaguemates, let’s just look at some guys I like for 2011.  These aren’t necessarily sleepers as many will be firmly entrenched on the radar of your opponents.  Nor are they necessarily breakout candidates, either.  After all, who really knows what defines a breakout?  It can mean 10 different things to 10 different people.

If you read the Starting Pitching Guide then you won’t be surprised by some of these guys as I made it clear how much I liked them there by suggesting you aggressively buy in or go the extra dollar or a host of other ways I used to convey my excitement for them.  Essentially if they are on this list, I like them more than their current projection meaning there is profit to gained.  There isn’t a uniform theme to this piece so let’s just get started with the names and you’ll see what I mean.

1. Cole Hamels – Seeing Hamels on a list like this might come as a surprise after all he doesn’t fall too far out of the top 10 starting pitchers in most drafts.  His inclusion is due to the fact that I have him as a top 5 guy for 2011.  He has Cy Young-quality stuff.  It was a travesty that his pitching led to just 12 wins, but that’s why judging pitchers on wins is foolish.  He is a bit overshadowed by teammates Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt, but I think he’s the best bet from a production-to-cost ratio.

2. Tommy Hanson – Like Hamels, this is a superstar in the making, but an overreaction to a 10-11 record from 2010 is depressing his value a bit.  Guys like Hamels and Hanson are the ones who will be my aces in 12-team mixed leagues because I refuse to pay the premium attached to the Lincecums and Felixes of the world.  If you’re looking for guys to take Ubaldian leaps from good to great, target Hanson and this next guy…

3. Chad Billingsley – Noticing a trend with these first three guys?  Billingsley also had a record that belied his true value going 12-11 for the second straight season masking his return to 2008’s 2.5 K/BB and a career best 0.4 HR/9.  Are you surprised to learn that he is just 26 years old?  In a standard 12-team mixer, I’m building my hitting base filling in some scarcity fields like shortstop (if I can get Hanley or Tulow), third base and outfield (remember, we need five) while taking advantage of the first base depth with those first 6-8 picks then pairing Hanson and Billingsley as my 1-2 punch.  My offense is going to be better than the guy who took Halladay in round 1 or 2 and my pitching is going to nearly on par and potentially better even if he paired a Sabathia or Weaver with him using yet another early round pick.

4. Brandon Morrow – I think he is getting a little trendy raising his value, but that doesn’t dissuade me.  Last year, I loved Gio Gonzalez and Jonathan Sanchez to make big leaps forward and they didn’t let me down.  Morrow is my guy of that class this year.  If he can shave a full walk off of his rate like Gonzalez did, he would be near 3.0 and if it didn’t cost him over two strikeouts in the process (as it did Gonzalez), he can be truly elite.

5. Ricky Romero – I love me some Blue Jays this year.  I will lift a quote from myself from the Guide re: Romero, “Romero meets the three criteria of Sporer Trifecta of Excellence (patent pending) with a strong strikeout rate (7.5 K/9), a truly elite groundball rate (55% career) and an above average changeup (though it was valued higher in ’09)”.  He has the stuff to take a step forward, but even a 2010 repeat has value at the cost I’m seeing for him in the two drafts I have already done and the expert leagues that have already taken place.

6. Hiroki Kuroda – A victim in the W-L column going just 11-13 last year despite a very strong skill set.  He has managed three straight sub-3.80 ERA seasons in the majors despite failing to reach even 70% LOB% let alone the league average 72% mark.  His age (36) undoubtedly scares some off, but nothing in his profile warrants fear (50%+ GB rate, 2.2 or better BB/9 and improving K/9 reached 7.3 last year).  He comes cheaper or at the same cost as the likes Matt Garza and Tim Hudson despite a more stable set of skills and even a tick of upside if that LOB% bumps up to average.

7. Edwin Jackson – Not much love out there for Jackson for some reason.  Maybe because it took him so long to begin paying any sort of dividends on his elite prospect status (4th in baseball in 2004) or because he teased and tantalized with so many false starts prior to that breakout year in Detroit back in 2009.  In Don Cooper I trust.  In 75 innings he righted Jackson’s season from the disaster it was in Arizona assisting Jackson to eight quality starts out of 11 including a run of three in which he struck out 11, 10 and 11.  I think Cooper and the Sox will finally extract the best out of Jackson for a full season returning a sharp profit on his current value.

8. James McDonald – This is the third year of me driving the McDonald Bandwagon.  He’s just getting going after a trade to the Pirates finally got him into a rotation so I’m not going anywhere now.  He went for $4 in NL Tout Wars over the weekend.  He is the kind of endgame play that can yield $10+ dollars of profit and be integral to a championship run.  Frankly I’m surprised he was so cheap as he has popped up on a lot of sleeper lists this offseason, much to my chagrin.

9. Jordan Zimmermann – He got a nice little 71-inning (31 in the majors) tune up last year coming back from Tommy John Surgery displaying 99% of his velocity from 2009 (92 of 93 MPH) and posted some decent stats albeit in smallish sample.  I am quite intrigued by what he can do in a full season (though a full season this year may mean  approx. 170 innings) having displayed strikeout an inning stuff throughout his minor league career as well as the 91 innings from his rookie year.  Injury returns are often a great source of profit and Zimmermann will be a prime candidate in this field for 2011.

Tomorrow’s portion of the list will feature nine names geared more towards single leagues and deeper mixed leagues.  That doesn’t mean they are entirely out of play for 10 and 12 mixed leaguers, especially if you have a reserve roster or taxi squad, but a lot of those leagues will have several of these guys on the waiver wire after the draft.

Ed. Note – if you’re wondering where Dan Haren is on this list, I figured he was too obvious to include.  If you’ve been reading my work at all this offseason, participated in the chat I hosted a few weeks back or talked with me via Twitter, you know how much I love this guy for 2011 (and beyond for that matter).  He is an unheralded ace with one of the best and most stable skills profiles in all of baseball.  He was tied with Max Scherzer as the 6th most expensive starter in AL Tout Wars ($20), a bargain in my book.  I have him 3rd-best in the AL behind Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester, just ahead of Justin Verlander.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Spring Training, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 3 Comments »

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
Thursday: 03.17.2011

2011 Closer Tiers

Here’s a look at my 2011 closer rankings.  I’m going to do my Middle Reliever article soon so the top 7th and 8th inning guys will get their coverage there.  I mentioned a few in here, but none of them are ranked unless they are in a committee to close.

Stat consideration in order of importance: Strikeouts, Saves, ERA, WHIP.  I would take a few less saves for a ridiculous strikeout rate.  Closers can impact ERA a decent bit (at the truly elite levels), but their WHIP impact is often insignificant (even at its worst, more on that later).

Tier 1

Joakim Soria – He has an incredibly rock solid skills profile over the past four seasons and yet he is still just 27 years old.  His inferior team hasn’t prevent him from two 40+ save seasons and in non-40 save season he struck out 69 in 53 innings (he wasn’t the full time closer in the first of his four seasons).

Carlos Marmol – Too many outlets greatly overrate the impact of a reliever’s WHIP (and ERA for that matter) on your team’s bottom line.  Take Marmol’s awful 1.46 WHIP in 2009 and add it to a standard team with 1250-1300 innings and it increases the WHIP by 0.01.  You can’t tell me that his otherworldly strikeout rates for a reliever don’t more than cancel out that negligible impact.

Heath Bell – Similar to Wilson, he’s on a team that can win, but when they do it’s close because they aren’t powered by offense.  This has led to 42 and 47 save seasons the last two years for Bell.  He’s also notching better than 10 strikeouts per nine with elite ERA and WHIP totals to boot.

Neftali Feliz – After a back-n-forth Spring Training and rampant speculation about whether or not he was going to start or close, he has finally been locked down as the closer again.  He was brilliant last year and I expect no different in 2011.  He has devastating starter’s stuff which plays pretty well in one-inning bursts.  Remember that with the tiers, I see everyone within a tier relatively similarly.  So if you wanted to take Feliz first in an AL-Only (or mixed for that matter), I support that.  I ranked them how I prefer them, but there’s little difference one to the next.

Mariano Rivera – He’s a freak, even at 41. The Ks dropped last year (6.8 K/9), but ratios remained absurd and I’m not betting against him.  K rate dropped to 6.6 in 2006 and then he reeled off three straight seasons above 9.0 at ages 37 through 39, so don’t let the 41 years make you believe he can’t bounce right back again.  He almost deserves his own second tier because there is a little risk with anyone his age, but I’ll give him the T1 respect.

Tier 2

Brian Wilson – He’s just on another level right now delivering near-Marmolian strikeout rates (10.3, 11.2 last two years) with great ratios and high save counts (on a team that wins, but not with offense meaning more close games).  Update: Injuries move him down, but still worth drafting pretty high.

J.J. Putz – Last year Putz looked a lot like the guy who notched 36 and 40 save seasons back in 2006 and 2007.  Once an elite closer, Putz quickly earned a closer’s role this offseason and there is no reason to believe he won’t once again become a big time stopper.  He’s being a little overlooked so far this draft season.  If you want to skip the first wave, jump on Putz a few rounds after.

Matt Thornton – Rightfully given the job to start the season, Thornton has been an elite reliever for three years now though many might not realize it as he has just 13 saves in that time.  Posted a ridiculous 12.0 strikeout rate last year, but even if he’s “only” at the 10.6 he averaged the two years before, he is still an excellent investment.

Jonathan Papelbon – For all his issues (ascending walk rate, ERA and WHIP; dropping save totals), his strikeout rate is actually ticking up yearly since 2008 (10.0, 10.1, 10.2) and at 29, he’s still well within in his prime.  As annoying as Papelbon can be personally, he could be an undervalued fantasy asset this year as his demise is being overrated.

Francisco Rodriguez – We are seeing a lot risk in this tier which says a lot about the state of closers in the 2011 preseason.  K-Rod is no different, but it’s hard to deny the talent.  The main concern is that if the Mets don’t trade him, they might game his playing time to avoid a vesting option for 2012 (needs to finish 55+ games).

Tier 3

Jonathan Broxton – He is inexplicably being written off for three bad months.  He was brilliant through June 26th with a sub-1.00 ERA and 48 Ks in 33 innings.  The wheels came off the next day with a 4-run outing and he was never the same the rest of the year.  No way I’m going to write off a 27-year old with as much talent as Broxton just yet.

Jose Valverde – An up and down season in 2010 that was essentially four great months and two horrible ones.  Elbow soreness likely caused some of the issues that led to 8.25 and 7.00 ERAs in July and August, but he bounced back with eight strong innings in September.  He looks good so far in Spring Training so I’d be comfortable investing in a standard Valverdian season.

Andrew Bailey – He might have crept into Tier 1 if it weren’t for the major injury scare a few days ago during a spring outing.  We are being told he’s fine for now and doesn’t need surgery, but the uncertainty of his elbow plus his injury track record make him a frightening investment.  Handcuff Brian Fuentes here.

Joe Nathan – He might ease into the role for a few weeks in April, but I think he will be the full-time closer no later than May given health.  Like Putz, I think we’ll see a quick return to form and Nathan will once again be a reliable premier asset.

Chris Perez – He came into his own last year and started paying dividends on his top 100 prospect status from 2008 (97) and 2009 (91).  Control is the missing element in his game to this point (4.3 BB/9 in 162 career IP), but at 25 years old there is still plenty of time.  His stuff is undeniable and he should feel secure in the job.  You should feel secure when investing.

Tier 4

Huston Street – The skills are there, always have been, but it’s hard to rely on him being there for you all season.  That lack of consistent health is why he has just two 35+ save seasons in his six years in the majors.  Each of the other four has yielded 23 or fewer.

John Axford – Burst onto the scene last year for a huge rookie season taking over for Trevor Hoffman with nearly 12 strikeouts per game and 24 saves in 27 chances.  His control needs work (4.2 BB/9), but that and a deep track record are the only missing ingredients for an elite closer.

Joel Hanrahan – You may be shocked to learn that Hanrahan has improved his strikeout rate each of his four seasons in the big leagues and had a career-best 3.4 BB/9 last year.  He’s been given the job for now, but Evan Meek looms if he fails.  The skills are there, but does he have the fortitude to closer?  I’d bet yes.

Leo Nunez – He had a career year in his first as the full-time closer which is enticing, but can it last?  He makes a strong secondary or tertiary closer on a team with a T1 in mixed leagues.  I also like him as a cheap option in an NL-Only if you don’t like investing a ton in saves.  I like him a lot more than most and I think he’s being a bit underrated.

Tier 5

Brad Lidge – A sore biceps tendon has caused a preseason scare, but Lidge asserts it’s something he has dealt with before and writes it off as no big deal.  Even still, he’s far from “Lights Out” these days despite the still impressive strikeout totals.  Tread cautiously. Update: Injuries also move him down as he’s now set to start the season on the DL.

Frank Francisco – He’s closed before and posted 3.2 K/BB rates or better each of the last three years, but a sore pectoral has cast some doubt over him, especially in light the depth of competition in Toronto.  If healthy, he could be a cheaper option that pans out very nicely.

Francisco Cordero – His eroding skillset belies the gaudy save totals (79 the last two years) as his strikeout rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons coming in below 8.0 each of the last two seasons.  Mix that in with his age (36) and legitimate competition behind him (Aroldis Chapman and Nick Masset) and Cordero becomes a risky proposition.

Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters – Listing them together because they are set to share the job for now.  I think one will emerge, but who knows who?  Venters was brilliant in 83 innings so it seems like he’d be more reliable, but Kimbrel really impressed with 40 strikeouts in 21 innings.  I wouldn’t be afraid to invest in either or both if the prices weren’t out of whack.  They only rate this low because saves are the guiding factor of these tiers.  From a pure skills standpoint, both can be elite relievers.

Kevin Gregg – Middling skills combined with legitimate competition on hand (namely Koji Uehara) make Gregg a risky option.  Throw in a mediocre at best team in the league’s toughest division and this could get ugly.  That said, he held on for 37 saves in the same division last year.

Ryan Franklin – Regression popped his ERA last year, but he tightened up the control a lot yielding an even better WHIP than 2009.  Still, I don’t like closers with lame strikeout rates especially if I can’t count on excellent ERA and WHIP.

Tier 6

Alexei Ogando – My main concern is that Ron Washington seems to lack much confidence in him and this whole Neftali Feliz melodrama might not be over yet, either.  Buying Ogando while things remain pretty uncertain could represent a nice bargain as I think he is the clear choice behind Feliz if he does end up a starter (which he should if Texas is smart… and they generally are…)

Jake McGee/Kyle Farnsworth – Manager Joe Maddon is firm on going with a committee marginalizing the value of both of these guys, who would otherwise be pretty valuable if they were the lone closer.  Their skills and team situation is better some of the other committees found in T6 so they still rate above them even as a tandem.

Fernando Rodney – I can’t envision a scenario where he keeps the job all year long.  Any one of Jordan Walden, Kevin Jepsen or Scott Downs would be better options.  Of course, they will probably get their shot in reverse order of how I listed them.  Downs is on the DL right now, but Rodney should at least hold it through April.

Brandon League/David Aardsma – League is a placeholder until Aardsma is healthy after having hip surgery in January.  I loved League heading into last year after his 2009 season, but he pretty much flopped and made his 2009 skills (9.2 K/9, 3.6 K/BB) look like an outlier.  Don’t buy both.  If you buy one, it should only be as a third option regardless of league format.

Drew Storen – A rough spring is putting his grasp on the job in serious doubt as manager Jim Riggleman obviously doesn’t realize how worthless Spring Training numbers are in the grand scheme.  Add in the myriad of options (none particularly good) behind Storen and he becomes a serious risk.

Brandon Lyon – A lesser version of Ryan Franklin on a much lesser team.  Wilton Lopez lingers, too, but I’m not sold he keeps the 0.7 BB/9 he displayed in 67 innings last year.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Closers, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Rankings, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Wednesday: 03.16.2011

Save Opportunities According to Team Performance

This will serve as the 3/16 Daily Dose

There may not be a more polarizing subject in terms of how to approach it in fantasy drafts than relief pitching.  Some hold firmly to the mantra of “Don’t Pay for Saves” while others advocate doubling up on stud closers as early as the 4th and 5th rounds.  Still others play it by ear and kind of mix the two nabbing a reliable guy in the 7th/8th round and supplementing him with upside plays who might get saves, low end guys with the job right or punting a second one altogether and playing the wire during the season.

I think a lot of league variables go into deciding which is best for you in your setup.  One adage that always strikes me is the discounting of closers on worse teams (regardless of talent) because “they will get fewer opportunities” than the guys in better overall situations.

That isn’t an outlandish statement taken at face value.  It makes very good sense in a practical manner, but there have been several beliefs in baseball that seem viable enough on the surface and are accepted as truisms until further review blows them out of the water.  This one has always struck me as one that might not hold up against the numbers after digging into it.  So I decided to do the digging.

I just thought that with at least 65 wins per team each year, even the low end closers were getting enough opportunities to convert a healthy number of saves on par with those on the best teams.  Also, a worse team is likely playing closer games and a lot more of their 65 wins are probably coming down to the wire as opposed to those of a 90-win ballclub.   Essentially, I was worried that the disparity in opportunities between the best and worst teams may have been overstated.

Conversely, a team winning 87-90 games and up is likely to have a much better entire bullpen than the bottom feeders lending credence to original theorem because they wouldn’t blow leads in the 6th-7th-8th innings leading up to their stopper.  So there’s a balance between the good teams winning by 4+ runs more often against their overall better bullpen holding otherwise tenuous leads in the middle innings more frequently than the lesser teams thus creating more chances for their closer.

What do the numbers tell us?

Win Percentage

(The data set used is from 2005 through 2010.)

Let’s take a look at the average save opportunities on a real basic level of win percentage split between teams over .500 and teams under .500:

Win Percentage Data Pts Avg. SVO
.500+ Win Pct. 95 62
sub-.500 WP 85 58

On a macro level, the theory holds true that closers on better teams will indeed average more attempts.  The four attempt split isn’t drastic, but again this is a high level view so I’m not sure it tells us all we need to know.

Sticking with this split for another moment, how do things look from a conversion rate standpoint?

Win Percentage Blown Opps Close Rate
.500+ Win Pct. 1774 5919 70%
sub-.500 WP 1797 4895 63%

This goes back to the point I made above in support of the theorem that the better bullpens as a whole will generate more leads for closers thus leading to more saves.  We see a stark difference in the split here with the sub-.500 teams not only blowing more saves, but doing so with more than a 1,000 fewer opportunities.

Wins

Getting a bit more granular now, let’s look at how things breakdown at four different levels going by 10s until 70 and then using sub-70 as one level:

Wins Data Pts Avg. SVO
90-100 41 64
80-89 61 61
70-79 48 59
<69 30 55

Now we are really seeing where a good surrounding team can make a significant difference opportunity edge.  This only makes Joakim Soria’s two 40+ save seasons all the more impressive considering how much his team hamstrung him.  He has closed out 91% of his saves for his career and was at a 93% clip in the two 40+ seasons.

Yet another step down gives us our best look at how things stratify within the standings:

Wins Data Pts Avg. SVO
92-100+ W 31 64
87-91 W 32 62
82-86 W 27 61
76-81 W 31 59
70-75 W 29 59
69 or fewer W 30 55

The conclusion to this point fully supports the basic theory that closers on better teams (or perceived to be better since we can’t know how the season will play out) are likely to receive more opportunities from their team than those at or near the bottom of the standings.

I am thinking of doing a part 2 of this piece.  I want to take a look at things at the player level.  These numbers so far aren’t completely useless, they confirm an adage that has been in play for some time, but they also take into account all save opportunities including those blown by the non-closer before the 9th inning.

What can individual data tell us about this adage?  It would stand to reason, based on what we have seen so far, that guys like Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan should be getting more opportunities than Soria or someone like Chad Cordero when he was in Washington.  Is that how it plays out or do we see opportunities tied more to team type where someone like Brian Wilson notches more opps than a Rivera because his team not only wins, but plays closer games because they aren’t led by their offense?

For now while we do have evidence that the better teams offer more save opportunities on average, I would be careful not to use it as an a primary factor for closer selection.  I would still focus entirely on the skill of the pitcher well before this opportunity factor came into play.

Soria, who I continue to mention since he is the best example of a great closer on a terrible team, deserves to be at or near the top of the closer rankings for 2011 regardless of how pitiful the Royals will be this season.  Don’t take a less skilled player on a better team (Francisco Cordero, for example) just because they might notch upwards of nine more opportunities over the season (and there’s no guarantee for that again because this data takes all save opportunities into account).

Tomorrow: My Closer Tiers for 2011

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Closers, Daily Dose, Fantasy Baseball, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 03.15.2011

Why Joe Mauer Isn’t the Top Catcher in 2011

This will serve as the 3/15 Daily Dose (Ed. note – I’ve got time for one post a day right now, so it’s either a feature like this or the DD).

Catcher is always a tricky spot in fantasy baseball.  It’s usually pretty thin putting a premium on the studs, but that is counterbalanced by the fact that even the studs are guaranteed to miss time by not catching at least a day and sometimes two each week.  There is a firm ceiling on a catcher’s output because of those built-in days off plus the significant risk of more missed time due to injury.

Despite all of that, Joe Mauer remains the consensus top catcher and usually goes very early.  Whether people are still salivating over that MVP season from 2009 and hoping it will return (only for a full season this time instead of five months) or they just want to get the perceived best player at a perceived scarce position who will at the very least give you a major boost in an oft-forgotten or at least generally mishandled category (batting average).

First things first, catcher isn’t as scarce as conventional wisdom suggests.  It’s not superstar-laden, but the upper crust (8 or 9 guys spread across two, maybe three tiers) is thicker and the mid-to-late round options contain about 10 or so guys who don’t vary much in their overall value.

The point of this article is less about scarcity and more about that perceived top option.  I have nothing against Mauer.  Despite being a Tigers fan with the Twins as one of our chief rivals, I really like the guy.  I actually want him to become the guy he was in 2009 and I was convinced he would be for most of the 2010 offseason until March hit and I came to my senses and backed off in the nick of time (a lot of it had to due with reading some convincing pieces, namely by Ron Shandler).  I still think he’s capable of being truly elite when it comes to power and pure hitting, but until he shows it that 2009 season is a major outlier.

When I posted my catcher rankings back on February 9th, I had Mauer first.  In fact every single one of the seven offseason magazines I sheepishly admit to having bought (Borders giftcard + addiction to fantasy baseball = win!) did, too.  I have thought long and hard about it and I’m making a change.  This is not home team bias driven, but I think Victor Martinez should be the top catcher for 2011.

Before I get into why, I want to clarify that this doesn’t mean you have to draft him first.  I think he will have the most value, but you will still see at least Mauer go before if not Brian McCann, Buster Posey and maybe even Carlos Santana, too.  Be careful, though, catcher is a position that tends to go in runs so if you see Mauer go, it is probably time to pounce on Martinez if you’re on board with my thoughts.

The reason I like him as the top catcher is the obvious one: he’s not going to be catching much at all.  The problem with catchers is the position.  It’s a grueling position that inherently wears guys down and cuts into their offensive value in a myriad of ways, most of which I already covered.  The general degradation of their bodies as the season progresses just eats into their value.

The Tigers are planning to play Martinez at DH most days, catcher every once in a while to spell Alex Avila and some first base when Miguel Cabrera needs a partial day off and moves to DH.  Speaking of Cabrera, if a worst-case scenario came to fruition for the Tigers whereby they missed Cabrera for any amount of time due to his off-the-field issues, then that would just mean more time for Martinez not catching as he is the primary backup at first.

So what does not catching do to his value?  We have a glimpse of it in the form of his 2009 season.  He caught 85 games and played first for another 70 logging a career high 155 games and essentially matched the production in line with his best seasons.  Coming at age 30 for a catcher, that’s impressive.  His OPS+ was 126, 3rd-highest of his career (130 as a 26 year old, 129 at 28).  He hit .303 with 23 homers and 108 RBIs (2nd-best HR, RBI totals and 3rd-best AVG of his career).

In the 2011, his split between games catching and not catching will be much greater which should result in another 150+ games played and could even yield career-high production.  I think we could see as much as a 7-10% increase of his production from 2009 season with the bulk of his catching duties removed from his plate combined with the fact that he is still in his prime (although 32 years old is generally regarded as that final year of the prime).

Just using the low end of that increase yields a .324 average, 25 home runs, 116 RBIs and 94 runs scored, which would no doubt lap the field in terms of catchers.  In fact, unless Mauer repeats his 2009, Martinez with “just” a .300-20-100- season is better than Mauer at .330-10-80.  Mauer’s batting average advantage offers .002 more to the bottom line over Martinez, but Martinez more than makes up that difference with 10 more HRs and 20 more RBI.  Martinez has three 20-100 seasons; two included a .300+ average.  He also had .302-20-79 last year in just 127 games.

Consider also that power is drying up recently making his 20+ ability all the more valuable, especially since it doesn’t come with the deficiencies found in a Mike Napoli 20-homer season (granted, V-Mart costs more than Nap, too).  Mauer’s batting average boost is nice, there is no denying that, especially since he is capable of .350 in any given season, but Martinez is hardly a liability there and he often logs more at-bats than Mauer.  Mauer has yet to reach 540 at-bats in a season while Martinez has four such seasons, three of which topped 560.

For as great a hitter as Mauer is, he has yet to rack up 100 RBIs in any given season, either.  Martinez has three such seasons.  I’m struggling to see why Mauer is an unchallenged #1 at the position.  The batting average impact is undeniable.  His “worst” season in the last three was last year’s .327, but compared to Martinez the advantage isn’t as glaring.  Apart from 2009’s explosion of 28 homers, he has reached double digits just once (13, 2006).  Same with topping 85 RBIs, only 2009’s 96 fit the bill.

Instead of betting on what Mauer can be, why not invest in what Martinez already is?  There is too much risk tied up in catchers already before you even get into the personal situations of each, but then you look at Mauer with his injury history combined with the underwhelming production save the one star category.

Looking at Martinez, you’re alleviating a great deal of the risk associated with catching by getting a catcher-eligible DH/1B, combining that with a proven track record of power production at a position lacking it (just four 20+ HR hitters in 2010; more than four just once since 2003 [2009]) with a guy still in his prime.  Adding it all up, you have a new #1 atop the catcher rankings.  Martinez is your guy if you want to go with catching early.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Catcher, Daily Dose, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Monday: 03.14.2011

Spring Training Stats are WORTHLESS!

This will serve as the 3/14 Daily Dose

It seems that no matter how often it’s said (even if it’s every year), fantasy baseball owners still want to put stock into Spring Training stats.  I understand the enticement of them.  You spent a long, cold winter desperate for Hot Stove news, poring over the previous year’s stats and preparing a bit for the upcoming season.  Finally in late February you have some actual boxscores and with the real season just a month or so away, you get caught up in a frenzy and start to give meaning to the numbers before you.

Let me assure you that they are almost 100% meaningless.  In fact, the numbers themselves are 100% meaningless and the only instance where they have some significance is when someone is competing for a job.  If a marginal player or up & coming rookie believed not to be ready has a blistering spring to win a job, the gaudy stats aren’t a precursor of things to come during the season, rather they are merely a ticket to entry.  You should use previous career track to that point for a projection going forward, not the spring numbers.

Still articles and podcasts all over the internet are littered with lines about how well established player X is hitting so far or how poorly established pitcher B has been doing thus far.  Often people will then use confirmation bias in May or June for the few instances of players who continue to perform (for better or worse) as they did in spring, all the while ignoring the 100s of examples going against them.

For every Jose Bautista (.439, 5 HR, 11 RBI) there are four or five Shaun Marcums (8.10 ERA in 10 IP returning from TJS).  Bautista’s September should have been your indicator if you were looking for a sign of breakout, not Spring Training.  He hit 10 bombs with 21 RBIs in 125 plate appearances in games that mattered.

Pitching is especially deceptive.  Guys are just working on various things during their spring stints whether it’s building velocity, spinning a new pitch, refining their worst pitch, gaining stamina, developing their command, etc…  They don’t really care about the ERA and WHIP accumulated, nor should you.

Even strikeout-to-walk ratios can be misleading.  You will hear some back that as the most reliable spring stat for a pitcher, but it is just as prone to failure as the rest of them.  Rodrigo Lopez had a 4.3 K/BB in 19 innings with a 1.90 ERA.  He then posted a 5.00 ERA with 2.1 K/BB in 200 innings for the Diamondbacks.

Or what about last year’s breakout star, Ubaldo Jimenez?  If you kept yourself from getting too giddy about the 2.89 ERA and instead just trusted the strikeout-to-walk ration, you wouldn’t have been too heartened by his 1.3 K/BB mark (14 K, 11 BB in 19 IP).

Teammmates Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are couple of other interesting cases.  Nolasco had a ridiculous spring where he threw 25 brilliant innings striking out 21 and walking just one en route to a 1.78 ERA.  His skills were still solid throughout 2010 (4.5 K/BB), but he had a 4.51 ERA because of his 1.4 HR/9.  Sanchez meanwhile was trash throwing 18 ugly innings with a 7.00 ERA striking out a healthy 17 but also walking 11.  He then had the first full season of his career notching 32 starts posting a 3.55 ERA in 195 innings.  He had a 7.2 K/9 and 2.2 K/BB.

These examples are all admittedly cherry-picked as I peruse the 2010 Spring Training stats, but I could put together a 3,000-word piece further proving the point.  I stand firmly behind the notion that spring stats don’t mean anything.  What about last year’s spring HR leaders?

1. Chris Johnson – 8
2. John Bowker – 6
3. Aaron Hill – 6
4. Mike Napoli – 6
5. Sean Rodriguez – 6
6. Justin Upton – 6
7. Delwyn Young – 6
8. Ryan Zimmerman – 6
9. Jose Bautista – 5
10. Nelson Cruz – 5

You’ve got six established studs already known for their power, a guy whose spring made him a massively overrated commodity in fantasy drafts (Rodriguez) and three trashbags who were trashbags before their spring and then throughout the 2010 season (Johnson, Bowker and Young).

And like I said, I could easily keep going.  Don’t let quality spring numbers validate someone you’re high on or worse, dissuade from someone whose skills you love and expect a breakout from in 2011.  They are a non-factor and you really would be better off ignoring them completely if you can do it.

If you can’t contain yourself and must peruse them, use them as a tool against your opponents.  Talk up another nice spring from Delwyn Young (fewer HR, but .333 AVG in 2nd-most AB [42]) or mention how Mark Trumbo has had a great spring and will be ready to take over if Kendrys Morales isn’t 100% by Opening Day (hopefully wasting money on Trumbo and driving Morales’ cost down).

Or loudly discuss how Carlos Zambrano has continued his hot second half (which was a complete and utter worthless fluke) posting a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings so far (make no mention of his pathetic 6-to-4 K/BB).  And lastly, point out how Joe Blanton might have to replace Cole Hamels in that famed Fantastic Four for Philly because Hamels has been getting rocked with a 4.61 ERA.  Then promptly buy Hamels and enjoy a Cy Young season.

Trust skills, especially for established stars.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Spring Training, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 3 Comments »

Thursday: 03.10.2011

National League Pitching Prospects List

This will serve as the 3/10 Daily Dose

It’s time for my prospect rankings for each league and I want to throw out a few points before I get to today’s National League list:

o   I’m new to prospecting.  This is my first ranking of prospects as I’ve spent the last two years getting better at it before finally diving in this year.  Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, John Sickels, Jason Collette, the BA folks (Jim Callis, Aaron Fitt, John Manuel, etc…) and Adam Foster are all much more seasoned, just to name a handful whose work I enjoy.  I stand 100% behind the work, but this isn’t yet an area of expertise for me.  I wouldn’t necessarily be eager to suggest anything is an area of “expertise” for me, but I’m much more in my element discussing major leaguers right now, but I want to get better at prospecting so it’s time to start ranking.

o   I have seen a handful of these guys live, though the bulk of my experience with them comes from reading extensively and watching video online.

o   There aren’t individual player capsules here, those are all in the Starting Pitcher Guide.

o   The ceiling is a best-case scenario as I see it.

o   The ranking combines the best-case scenario with how likely they are to reach it.  This means someone might project with a higher ceiling, but be less likely to reach it and thus rank below someone with a lower ceiling who is closer to it.

o   This doesn’t slant toward 2011.  It’s all encompassing.  In other words, don’t use it in your re-draft fantasy leagues and get upset with me if Arodys Vizcaino doesn’t throw 120 innings for you later this summer.  It’s meant more for leagues with minor league rosters of any size and dynasty leagues.

RK Player TEAM ETA Ceiling
1 Julio Teheran ATL 2012 1
2 Jameson Taillon PIT 2014 1
3 Mike Minor ATL 2010 2
4 Jarrod Parker ARI 2011 1
5 Shelby Miller STL 2012 1
6 Simon Castro SD 2011 1
7 Jordan Lyles HOU 2011 2
8 Jenrry Mejia NYM 2010 1
9 Randall Delgado ATL 2012 1
10 Tyler Matzek COL 2013 1
11 Zach Lee LAD 2013 1
12 Casey Kelly SD 2012 2
13 Trey McNutt CHC 2012 1/Closer
14 Arodys Vizcaino ATL 2013 1
15 Trevor May PHI 2013 1
16 Stetson Allie PIT 2014 1/Closer
17 Matt Harvey NYM 2013 1
18 Zack Wheeler SF 2013 1
19 Brandon Beachy ATL 2010 3
20 Jarred Cosart PHI 2014 2
21 Christian Friedrich COL 2011 2
22 Tyler Skaggs ARi 2013 2
23 Chad James FLO 2013 2
24 Cory Luebke SD 2010 3
25 Brody Colvin PHI 2014 1
26 AJ Cole WAS 2014 2
27 Chris Withrow LAD 2012 2
28 Rubby de la Rosa LAD 2013 1
29 Brad Hand FLO 2012 3
30 Mike Foltynewicz HOU 2014 2
31 Luis Heredia PIT 2014 1
32 Chad Bettis COL 2014 3
33 Jesse Biddle PHI 2014 2
34 Juan Urbina NYM 2014 2
35 Jay Jackson CHC 2011 3
36 Lance Lynn STL 2011 3
37 Juan Nicasio COL 2013 2
38 Sammy Solis WAS 2012 3
39 Aaron Miller LAD 2012 3
40 Hayden Simpson CHC 2013 2
41 Carlos Martinez STL 2014 1
42 Daryl Thompson CIN 2008 3
43 Ethan Martin LAD 2013 2
44 David Holmberg ARI 2014 3
45 JJ Hoover ATL 2012 3
46 Pat Corbin ARI 2013 3
47 Mark Rogers MIL 2010 3
48 Tyrell Jenkins STL 2015 2
49 Bryan Morris PIT 2011 3
50 Brad Boxberger CIN 2012 3

I’ll be hosting a chat soon to discuss both this and more of the Starting Pitching Guide. Plan for next Thursday, but I’ll definitely post the details ahead of time. In the meantime you can reach me on Twitter or Facebook if you have questions about this list.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Daily Dose, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Off-Season, Predictions, Prospects, Starting Pitchers, Strategy | 7 Comments »

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Wednesday: 03.9.2011

American League Pitching Prospects List

This will serve as the 3/9 Daily Dose

It’s time for my prospect rankings for each league and I want to throw out a few points before I get to today’s American League list:

o   I’m new to prospecting.  This is my first ranking of prospects as I’ve spent the last two years getting better at it before finally diving in this year.  Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, John Sickels, Jason Collette, the BA folks (Jim Callis, Aaron Fitt, John Manuel, etc…) and Adam Foster are all much more seasoned, just to name a handful whose work I enjoy.  I stand 100% behind the work, but this isn’t yet an area of expertise for me.  I wouldn’t necessarily be eager to suggest anything is an area of “expertise” for me, but I’m much more in my element discussing major leaguers right now, but I want to get better at prospecting so it’s time to start ranking.

o   I have seen a handful of these guys live, though the bulk of my experience with them comes from reading extensively and watching video online.

o   There aren’t individual player capsules here, those are all in the Starting Pitcher Guide.

o   The ceiling is a best-case scenario as I see it.

o   The ranking combines the best-case scenario with how likely they are to reach it.  This means someone might project with a higher ceiling, but be less likely to reach it and thus rank below someone with a lower ceiling who is closer to it.

o   This doesn’t slant toward 2011.  It’s all encompassing.  In other words, don’t use it in your re-draft fantasy leagues and get upset with me if Jacob Turner doesn’t throw 120 innings for you later this summer.  It’s meant more for leagues with minor league rosters of any size and dynasty leagues.

RK Player TEAM ETA Ceiling
1 Jeremy Hellickson TB 2011 1
2 Matt Moore TB 2012 1
3 Michael Pineda SEA 2011 1
4 Manuel Banuelos NYY 2012 1
5 Zach Britton BAL 2011 2
6 Jacob Turner DET 2013 1
7 Martin Perez TEX 2012 1
8 Kyle Drabek TOR 2010 2
9 Mike Montgomery KC 2012 1
10 Chris Sale CHW 2010 1/Closer
11 Dellin Betances NYY 2012 2/Closer
12 John Lamb KC 2012 2
13 Chris Archer TB 2012 2
14 Kyle Gibson MIN 2011 2
15 Andy Oliver DET 2010 2
16 Danny Duffy KC 2012 2
17 Drew Pomeranz CLE 2012 2
18 Casey Crosby DET 2013 2
19 Alex Wimmers MIN 2013 2
20 Chris Dwyer KC 2012 2
21 Alex White CLE 2012 2
22 Aaron Crow KC 2012 2
23 Drake Britton BOS 2013 2
24 Alex Torres TB 2012 2
25 Jason Knapp CLE 2012 2
26 Tyler Chatwood LAA 2011 2
27 Alex Colome TB 2013 2
28 Anthony Ranaudo BOS 2013 2
29 Michael Kirkman TEX 2010 3
30 Tijuan Walker SEA 2014 1
31 Tanner Scheppers TEX 2011 2/Closer
32 Robbie Erlin TEX 2013 3
33 Miguel de los Santos TEX 2013 2
34 Ivan Nova NYY 2010 3
35 Jason Thompson TB 2013 2
36 Enny Romero TB 2014 2
37 Andrew Brackman NYY 2012 2/Closer
38 Felix Doubront BOS 2010 3
39 Mauricio Robles SEA 2011 3
40 Zach Stewart TOR 2011 3/Closer
41 Drew Smyly DET 2013 2
42 Andre Rienzo CHW 2014 2
43 Jake Odorizzi KC 2013 2
44 Ian Krol OAK 2013 3
45 Brett Marshall NYY 2013 3
46 Alex Cobb TB 2012 3
47 Aaron Sanchez TOR 2014 2
48 Yordano Ventura KC 2014 2
49 Charlie Furbush DET 2011 3
50 Shawn Haviland OAK 2012 3

I’ll be hosting a chat soon to discuss both this and more of the Starting Pitching Guide.  Plan for next Thursday, but I’ll definitely post the details ahead of time.  In the meantime you can reach me on Twitter or Facebook if you have questions about this list.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Off-Season, Predictions, Prospects, Starting Pitchers, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 03.9.2011

Podcast Appearance Tonight at 7 PM Central

I’ll be on Joel Henard‘s show tonight at 7 PM discussing the Starting Pitcher Guide.

Show link.

Posted in Podcast | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 03.8.2011

Baseball Podcast Recommendation List

This will serve as the 3/8 Daily Dose

I grew up loving sports radio.  I used to listen to WDFN in Detroit all the time and eventually I began calling in.  The evening show in Detroit was hosted by a guy named Mega Man Ike Griffin and I loved the show.  I would write down all of my points, wait on hold for 30+ minutes and then deliver my thoughts in 1-2 minute spurts almost nightly.

One of my best sports radio memories was going to an on-site of Griffin’s show with my mom, best friend and sister.  Detroit Lions defensive end Robert Porcher was a guest and they had a Porcher-related trivia question for his tickets at the upcoming game against the Packers.  You had to name the mascot of Porcher’s alma mater, South Carolina State.  I instantly raised my hand despite the fact that I really didn’t have a clue what the answer was for this question.

I knew South Carolina was the Gamecocks, but that knowledge would be useless to me here.  Thankfully my mom was on hand.  It was her idea to just guess Bulldogs, seeing as it was a popular enough nickname that we might get it right.  And we sure did!  A few weeks later I was sitting 7th row in Porcher’s seats enjoying an excellent game that the Lions won (it was pretty rare back then, too).

We moved to Harlingen, TX when I was 14 and it took me a while to even find the lone sports talk radio station there.  For the years I lived there (3, sophomore-senior years of high school) it was purely an affiliate with no local stuff.  That made sense as there wasn’t a pro or even a viable college team anywhere in the area so there was no real need for a local flavor for the national stuff.  Might as well just stick with the pros.  We had Sporting News Radio then Fox Sports Radio followed finally by ESPN Radio.

I listened to it a lot in high school.  My dad and I would listen every day when he drove me to school and I would listen on summer nights when I stayed up late playing baseball simulators online (Jeez, I was [am?] a dork!).  Just like when I was in Detroit, I loved to call in.  Sometimes I’d wait even longer on the national shows, especially during peak hours, but I had my handy notes and an inexplicable amount of patience just so I could be heard.  I’d get most excited when I could actually respond to the host’s response instead of saying my initial piece and then having to listen to them offline.

I have taken the long way of showing how far back my love for sports talk goes with the point being that I didn’t just happen upon podcasts.  After loving sports talk radio for years, podcasts were a natural step in the process.  First off, the local stuff here in Austin isn’t very good even with two stations now.  Secondly, I cannot stand the fact that it feels like 43 minutes of every hour is commercial-laden.  So when I discovered podcasts were essentially commercial-less sports talk radio, I was immediately hooked.  Not only did they cut out my least favorite part of sports radio, but the content is often much better, too.

This all leads to my podcast recommendation list.  I listen to sports-related podcasts almost exclusively with a few general topic ones sprinkled in, but for the sake of this list, I’m going to whittle it down to baseball only.  There are different types and formats here so I’m sure there is something for everyone.  Or at least everyone who enjoys listening to baseball talk on some level.

By the way, if there is something missing on this list that you think needs to be a part of it, please don’t hesitate to leave a comment or hit me on Twitter because I’m always up to give a podcast a shot.

(UPDATED: MAY 23rd-Podcasts added and some commentary to previously listed podcasts has been added, too.  That commentary can be found in italics at the end of the original write up.)

FanGraphs Audio – Mix the usually sharp insights of FanGraphs.com analysts with the irreverent wit of host Carson Cistulli and it’s a winning combination.  Cistulli also brings in non-FanGraphs guests which only improves the show.  Check out a recent episode with player Matt Antonelli and I dare you not to become a fan of his almost instantly.  Oh and while it may not be for everybody, I for one love the intro music with Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass.  Yes, I even bought it on iTunes.  It’s called “The Charmer” and it’s available for a scant $0.99, iTunes giftcard FTW!

As for frequency of the show, I think it will ramp it up as the season gets nearer.  There were four in February and there were two right off the bat in March, so while they don’t keep a regular schedule I’d expect four-five per month during the season.  It checks in between 35 and 50 minutes per show.

MLB.com Fantasy 411 – This is one of the first shows I started listening to years ago.  It used to be a daily show that could be podcasted, but it has evolved into a television show on the MLB Network that will likely start soon and I believe runs 4:30-5:00 (new time!) 1:30 PM central when it’s not preempted and podcast-only.  I think they podcast most episodes, but like ESPN’s PTI, it’s better to watch since it’s a show with graphics and highlights.  Still, hosts Mike Siano and Cory Schwartz will do an episode every once in a while that is podcast only.  Great content and analysis with humor thrown is what you can expect to find on this show.  I would definitely keep it in your iTunes feed, but also set your DVR to record daily.

Baseball America Podcast – Attention prospect mavens and wannabe prospect mavens, this is your podcast.  It runs often with a college rundown focusing on the Top 25 each week, draft podcasts throughout May and prospect roundup episodes all throughout the season.  Of course they do top 100 prospect stuff around this time each year (which they ran back on Feb. 23rd with the recent list), too.

They stay busy in the offseason as well with 18 podcasts since the season ended through today and if you want to only count mid-October to mid-February as kind of the dead period, 14 of the 18 came in that 4-month timeframe.  Time fluctuates based on the topic.  They are usually at least 30 minutes, but bigger topics stretch past an hour (top 100 coverage, draft report cards, signing deadline, etc…).

If you don’t have time to subscribe and digest all the fantastic writing on their site and in the bi-weekly (I believe) magazine, then this is a great substitute.  If you do subscribe to the site and/or the mag, this is the perfect supplement for your commute, dog walks or whenever you like to listen to podcasts.

The Jonah Keri Podcast – This one isn’t purely baseball, but it skews baseball enough to be included.  I’ve already recommended this in a previous Daily Dose, so I won’t just rehash everything again.  It’s a great podcast that has quickly become one of my favorites.  Keri reels in brilliant guests weekly (oftentimes more than once a week) and discusses a range of topics touching sports, pop culture, technology and the writing profession among others.  Baseball and college hoops seem to be his favorite sports with the podcast leaning toward the former thus far.  As he is Canadian, he also likes hockey a good bit and isn’t afraid to do a full episode on it either.  As a native Detroiter, I like hockey plenty but the coverage is scant here in Austin, TX.

The show is a must-listen for anyone who likes podcasts and likes sports.

Up & In: The Baseball Prospectus Podcast – If you’re not a fan of long-form podcasts, then you’re out on this one from the jump.  They routinely run two hours and sometimes push the two and a half hour mark.  Hosts Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks are the opinionated minds behind this operation and if you’re easily offended, you may want to pass.  So now that I’ve given you two reasons not to listen, here are two reasons you would want to listen.  The long-form is awesome to me so it’s a plus in my book, but I know it can go either way toward attracting or dissuading listeners.  And the fact that Goldstein and Parks are direct with their opinions is another plus for me that can put off some.

They are prospect guys from the scouting side of the ledger when it comes to their baseball knowledge, but they understand stats and incorporate at times (they aren’t afraid to dismiss them entirely, though, either).  I think they give deep and interesting perspectives on a wide range of topics in the game and that’s what drew me in from the start (I’m a point-9’er).  They segment the show so if you only want the baseball portion or only want, as Kevin calls it, the goofy stuff, then you can pick the spots you want with his handy timed segment guide attached to each episode.

Sometimes I find their music snobbery a bit overbearing as it seems they like some of the stuff just because it’s not popular.  Honestly a lot of it is utter trash to me.  But that’s my opinion and I don’t mind that they like it.  I just think they should be the same way about mainstream music they don’t like… just move on.  No one cares that you don’t like it.  That aside, the baseball talk is plentiful and rich enough to easily overlook the slight annoyance that their condescension toward most things popular triggers (Jason does make a good point that they can’t be pegged as hating all things popular as he loves the Beatles more than anything).

If you want good baseball talk, great guests and colorful language, then you need to be listening to this show.

ESPN Fantasy Focus: Baseball – Another ESPN offering, Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz are well-known in the industry far beyond the reaches of this podcast.  They also both play in Tout Wars leagues, too.  As for the show, it appeals to a more broad fantasy baseball player.  The standard league they discuss is a 10-team mixed which just isn’t my cup of tea.  That said, there is still some good discussion of players that range beyond standard league value and it’s worth a listen.

At times they can veer off topic a bit too much for my liking, but they are upfront that it’s a part of the show so if you don’t like it, it’s more of a “you problem” than something with them.  It’s a fun listen and a worthwhile way to pass 30-40 minutes a day.  I’ve also heard from some of my friends that both guys are really cool in person so even if you don’t love their on-air personas, they seem to be relatively well-liked guys within the industry.

I always keep them on the iTunes list.  I love when they debate and you get both sides of a player, though.  That, to me, is very useful.  Give it a shot and see how they sit with you.  Plus, the theme song is awesome.  Gets in my head every day and I don’t mind.  Update 5/23 – This is arguably their best season, in my opinion. They’ve done a great job branching out their coverage from just 10-team league-relevant information.  They’ve got some funny segments that they have added and they have just the right amount of silly stuff, again in my opinion.  It’s been a must-listen for me this season.  

Beyond the Box Score Podcast* – Another recent feature of the Podcast Recommendation of a past Daily Dose, the BTBS podcast is quickly climbing the list as one of my favorites.  It’s another long-form podcast (1.5-2 hours) filled with guests and plenty of banter between hosts Dave Gershman and Matt Klassen.  I’ve told the two before that I think sometimes Matt steamrolls Dave a bit too much and comes across too eager to get his point across, but they let me know that Matt was encouraged to speak up when he saw fit.  But they are just seven episodes in (eight should come out today sometime) so they are still getting into their groove.

Gershman is booking great guests and they usually have a couple per episode, but even a guest-less episode with just Gershman and Klassen riffing on a variety of topics would be worth listening to as well.  I’m not a fan of the bumper music between segments (The Bare Necessities), but something like that isn’t going to drive me away from a show or else I’d almost never listen to Up & In.  Update 5/23 – Dave wins, the bumper music has grown on me. 

* (Now in iTunes!)

ESPN Baseball Today – I’ve been listening to this show since it started waaaaaaay back in 2006 when Alan Schwarz was hosting.  I absolutely loved the show when Schwarz hosted it.  That’s nothing against the hosts since, but he was just fantastic.  There was a lull last season and I wasn’t listening much as I didn’t love Seth Everett partnering with Eric Karabell, but Karabell has added Keith Law and contributor turned co-host Mark Simon for the 2011 season making it a must-listen once again.

ESPN likes to keep their podcasts under an hour and most check in around 30 minutes.  Baseball Today tops 30 most days, but rarely goes much longer than 40.  I think it’s probably the wheelhouse amount of time for most.  With Law and Simon joining Karabell, I’d love if they went long-form for an hour-plus a day, but that’s not going to happen so I’ll have to take my 30-40 minutes.  Update 5/23 – I was looking a lot more forward to this earlier in the preseason, but Law’s overwhelming negativity, which comes across as shtick at this point, is just too much.  It is making it hard to listen to on some days.  You literally expect him to take the negative angle to every single topic.  I think Karabell worries about what Law thinks a little too much, too.  He also worries way too much about going into “extra innings”, which is over an allotted time set by his producer Podvader.  First off, most people don’t mind if pods run long, but more to the point, settle that off-air with your co-host and producer.  Considering that it happens more often than not, what is the point of mentioning it at this point? 

Baseball Daily Digest – My good friend Joel Henard hosts a twice-a-week show with one as a general baseball show with co-host Albert Lang and the other covering his favorite team, the Chicago White Sox, with co-host Mike Rudd.  I only listen to the general one every week, but since I like Joel’s style so much I will tune into the White Sox one every once in a while, too.  Joel also just finished his excellent Fantasy February series where he had several guests from the industry to cover a host of topics.  This is a passion of Joel’s and that comes through in the shows.  They are hosted at Blog Talk Radio so they are hour-long timeslots and I highly recommend tuning in, especially because sometimes you can hear yours truly doing a special co-hosting spot.

Betting Dork w/Gil Alexander – Another niche podcast, the topic of this one is pretty obvious in the title and I haven’t been listening to it long, but I really liked the football betting analysis and Gil’s favorite sport to bet on is baseball so I’m anticipating liking this even more as we approach the season.  To be honest, I don’t even bet much these days, but I just enjoy hearing him and his guests uncover angles and discuss trends.  Sometimes he just has guests on talk about a particular sport without the betting angle.  He does that with Marc Spears of Yahoo! to talk about basketball and I’m hoping he has baseball guests on like that during the summer.

Baseball HQ Radio – If you like the insightful numbers-based analysis of the BaseballHQ.com writing staff, then chances are you will enjoy this podcast.  It’s essentially an hour-long version of the website.  Host Patrick Davitt starts by bringing on Harold Nichols and Matt Beagle to discuss the NL and AL, respectively.  They each cover a handful of guys in their league going into the second and third level of their stats and giving you the scoop on whether they are worth owning, trading or acquiring in your league.  After that Davitt has on his guest of the week which is someone from the fantasy baseball industry (sometimes part of the HQ family) and they have a 20-30 minute chat.

The main guest spot is followed by weekly segments that include a prospect round up, Beagle on again for Market Pulse, a new segment on keeper leagues and finally Ron Shandler’s Master Notes to close out the show.  It’s different from a lot of the shows on this list, but I find it enjoyable and it is definitely ripe with worthwhile information.

Broken Bat Single – Right off the bat, this is a Kansas City Royals-themed show so if you have no interest in the goings on of that team, then you probably think that you don’t want to listen to this show.  I would encourage you to at least give it a shot if you’re a fan of baseball podcasts.  I don’t have great interest in the Royals (as y’all probably know, I’m a Tigers fan), but I do love good baseball talk and that’s what Nick Scott offers on his show.  Scott books strong guests (I really enjoyed the episode with the GM of the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the AA team for KC) and covers the team top to bottom while also mixing in some general MLB and non-KC Central Division coverage as well.  The shows run an hour to an hour-plus, but like all of these long-form ones, it is easy to pick up where you left off if you can’t listen to it all at once.

The Detroit Tigers Podcast – While we are on the topic of team-specific podcasts, I will plug one for my favorite team.  Ian Casselberry and Mike McClary essentially do what Broken Bat Single does only for the Tigers, so of course I love it.  Again, if you’re not into team-centric shows, then you’re not going to like this, BBS or Joel’s White Sox show (it’s purely coincidental that all three are AL Central teams).

Baseball Press Podcast – Are you looking for a quicker baseball fix?  The Baseball Press Podcast is right up your alley.  The guys over at BaseballPress.com over a sub-30 minute (most of the time) covering the goings on of the game around once a week during the season.  They are in the midst of their team preview episodes right now with guests from various blogs and other outlets to talk about the team of the night.

CBS Fantasy Baseball Podcast – I used to really dislike this podcast because one of the co-hosts was just insufferable.  I couldn’t listen to his trite pet theories and terrible analysis so I had to abandon ship on this one.  A few weeks ago when I was going through iTunes looking at stuff, I came across it again and decided to look through and see what new episodes they had done.  I saw they had started their positional preview episodes and this person was no longer a part of the show so I gave it a shot again.  I’m glad I did because it’s pretty enjoyable.  A three man booth with essentially a mediator and then the two analysts going back and forth, they went in depth at every single position and have followed that up with episodes dedicated to sleepers, breakouts and busts.

In season they do a few different shows each week: the weekly preview, the most added/dropped players and a recap/injury show on either Monday or Tuesday and sometimes both.  Episodes vary from 30-50 minutes long depending on what they need to cover.  They won’t cut time if the topic is meaty, but they won’t fluff it up if there isn’t anything to talk about, either (a mid-September add/drop show was 15’ long).  This is just hardcore fantasy analysis and it’s pretty enjoyable.

Bloomberg Sports’ Behind the Numbers – I really enjoyed this show during the season, but there hasn’t been a new episode since October 15th so I’m not sure if it will be back for season 2.  Last year it didn’t start until March 26th, so I won’t write it off for 2011 until April.  I’d put it in your iTunes for now and just wait and see.  They get great guests and it’s a show that generally checks in under 30 minutes, if I remember correctly.  Update 5/23: A few random episodes popped up a few weeks ago, but only one would download and it was a preview episode that included a Jonah Keri interview.  I guess this isn’t coming back full-time this year. 

CBS Baseball Podcast – This podcast in its current iteration as Ear on Baseball is just five episodes old and I’ve only heard two.  One was with Kevin Goldstein, who believes C. Trent Rosencrans (the host) and others with recent baseball podcasts have lifted their format from Up & In, and the other was with some band called The Baseball Project that I just couldn’t get through.  The guys in the band sounded nice enough, but it wasn’t something I was particularly interested in and I jumped to a few spots to see if it was the entire episode or just part of it and it was the whole thing.

I realize Goldstein is kinda joking with his friend when he says he stole the format, but he’s also kinda serious.  I didn’t see anything from Goldstein’s format in Rosencrans’ show.  Nor did Goldstein make up the format for long-form podcasts.  They have a very enjoyable show that I have liked since it came out, but podcasts were out loooong before Up & In started!

At this point, I’d have to give this show an incomplete grade because I’ve only really listened to one full episode.  Update: 5/23 – They did a handful of strong episodes February-April, but then there hasn’t been an update since April 7th so I guess it’s done. 

The New Additions: (May 23rd)

The Baseball Show with Rany & Joe – Rany Jazayerli and Joe Sheenan are long-time friends and industry stalwarts when it comes to baseball.  As Joe tells it, they used to have extended phone calls where they would just talk about everything that was going on in baseball so given the rise in podcasts, they decided to just start recording these calls and sharing them with the world.  If you enjoyed the writing of these two back at Baseball Prospectus or currently enjoy them either at Rany on the Royals or in Sheehan’s Newsletter, then you’ll definitely like this show.

Sports Poscast with Joe Posnanski – I was absolutely thrilled to learn that Joe Posnanski was starting a podcast and 11 episodes in, it has not disappointed.  It isn’t a pure baseball podcast, but there is enough baseball content for it to crack the list especially as we inch closer to summer.  He has done three episodes (technically four as one was a two-parter) with the creator of the best show on TV, Michael Schur (Parks & Rec.), including one where they did a fantasy draft of baseball books which was amazing.  He’s also had Bob Costas, Bill James, Ian O’Connor (who recently released a book about Derek Jeter) and Giants announcer Duane Kuiper for his baseball-centric episodes.  The only no-baseball episode was with Kevin Harlan.  This is quickly becoming one of my favorites.

Hot Clicks Podcast with Jimmy Traina – Another one that isn’t all baseball, but eminently listenable regardless of the guest.  I discovered the podcast this weekend and listened to all nine episodes.  The Logan Morrison and C.J. Wilson episodes are must-listens from a baseball perspective.  I also enjoyed the James Andrew Miller (co-author of Those Guys Have All the Fun: Inside the World of ESPN which releases May 24th), Erin Andrews and Chris Cooley episodes quite a bit.  If you enjoy Traina’s twice-daily link roundup at Sports Illustrated, you will probably like his podcast.

Bizball Radio – If you enjoy Maury Brown’s great work on the business of sports network (and specifically baseball) then you will no doubt enjoy this podcast where Brown speaks with some of the most intriguing guests in the sports business field.  Like some of these additions, it isn’t all baseball all the time especially with a topic like the NFL Lockout to speak about, but all except one of his guests (George Atallah from the NFLPA) was either mostly baseball talk or at least some within their episode.

Podcast To Be Named Later – Jason Collette and company from DRaysBay.com have resurrected this Tampa Bay-centric podcast.  Like the other team-focused podcasts on the list, it is best if you are a fan of that team, but if you are a diehard baseball fan in need of more podcasts then you will enjoy listening to this roundtable discussion of one of the league’s best teams.

Fantasy Pros 911 Podcast – Rich Wilson, Tony Cincotta and Tim McLeod get together every Sunday night for an hour to talk about the week that was and the one coming up in fantasy baseball.  They cover plenty of topics in their hour-plus (the first hour is always live on BlogTalkRadio while anything additional bleeds over onto the podcast only) with information for all fantasy players regardless of league size and format.  They engage their chatroom very well, too, and also respond to emails the following week.  The sound quality leaves a little to be desired, but I believe the only way to go truly live on BTR is over the phone which precludes them from recording on Skype and then posting a cleaner recording to the site.  I might trade the live aspect for better sound, but that would take away their interactive with the chatroom which is a key aspect to the show.

Posted in Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Podcast, Radio Show | 19 Comments »

Tags: , , , , ,
« Older Entries  |   Newer Entries »