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Tuesday: 02.23.2010

2010 Echelons of Starting Pitching: Part 1

I haven’t posted for three weeks, but it hasn’t been without good reason. I have been working on my favorite piece of the winter, the Starting Pitcher Echelons. It’s my third year doing this and this year’s is the biggest yet. Last year, I went 154 deep and in 2008 there were 112. This year, I have 263 names. I’d be surprised if I was missing anybody of consequence but I will rely on you the reader to let me know if there are glaring omissions.

There are five distinct echelons this year and it is meant to emulate a starting rotation. The 1s are your aces that will be taken early and cost the most money in most leagues. They have reliable track records and excel across the board. Meanwhile the 2s are guys I really like and their best-case-scenario season would be ace-level. There is usually just one small thing missing from their equation that keeps them out of the top echelon, but you can reasonably anchor your staff with these guys if you choose to wait on pitching. The 3s are a mix of young guys on the rise still putting it all together and crafty veterans capable of eating a boatload of innings without destroying your team. All of them have enough discernible skill to put up a very good season, but it would definitely standout either because they are returning from injury, have yet to do at the big leagues or haven’t done in several seasons. The 4s are essentially 3s with bigger, more glaring questions surrounding them. They are likely further away from the majors if they are youngsters. The veterans found within the 4s have some skill, but lack any clear path into the rotation or simply have a bigger chance at hurting your team should they get several starts. And the last echelon is the 5s which contains severely unpolished young arms who are likely a year or two away in most cases, but merit some consideration in dynasty leagues or leagues with minor league rosters and veterans who should be spot-started at best and should only be considered as stopgaps in disaster scenarios.

The 4s and 5s won’t have a whole lot written about them since their projected impact for 2010 is much lower by comparison to the 1s, 2s and 3s. For the 5s especially, I’ll probably stick to one sentence about them and move on. Some of the 4s who could be a factor later will get a little bit more detail included, but the meat of the analysis will be on the 2s and 3s. Even the 1s don’t need a ton of breakdown as we already know why they are there. Also this year I’ve included a special 6th echelon which is a 10-pack of 4s and 5s who will miss a significant amount of time in 2010 due to injury or who are returning from a major injury in 2009 and should be approached with the utmost amount of caution in terms of expectations. Let’s start with that group.

Supplemental Echelon “Six” – The Infirmary

1. Jesse Litsch (right elbow; July return), 24 years old, Toronto Blue Jays (echelon 4) – He enjoyed some success in 2007 and 2008 (combined 3.67 ERA in 287 IP) despite striking out just 4.7 batters per nine.

2. Edinson Volquez (Tommy John; late ’10 if at all), 26 years old, Cincinnati Reds (echelon 4) – If you have a reserve roster where you could get Volquez on the cheap and hold him over for 2011, he’s worth a look late just for the long-term investment. Could pitch 30-40 innings down the stretch, but who knows how valuable those would be?

3. Erik Bedard (left shoulder; August return), 30 years old, Seattle Mariners (echelon 4) – Same old story with Bedard. I heard a rumor that Rich Harden was quoted as saying Bedard is a candyass. Bedard could be a stretch run asset if he returns for the final two months, but I wouldn’t bend over backwards to land him, even in a league with a reserve roster.

4. Justin Duchscherer (back, right elbow, depression; Spring Training return), 32 years old, Oakland A’s (echelon 4) – Didn’t throw a single pitch in 2009 after a tremendous 2008 breakout. Like Bedard, Harden and the next guy on this list, he will ALWAYS carry significant risk no matter how well he pitches.

5. Kelvim Escobar (shoulder; Spring Training return), 34 years old, New York Mets (echelon 4) – I’m a huge fan of this guy but the simple fact is that he can’t be trusted. Word out of the Mets camp is that he could be used as a reliever, but I’m including him on the starting pitcher list because there’s a good enough chance he will get starts for that lame rotation sooner or later.

6. Ross Detwiler (hip; June return), 23 years old, Washington Nationals (echelon 5) – He has struck out nearly a batter per inning in 234 minor league innings, but managed just five per nine in 76 innings last year in 14 starts. Need to see some consistent performance upon return to even recommend a spot start duty.

7. Jordan Zimmerman (elbow; late ’10 if at all), 23 years old, Washington Nationals (echelon 5) – Like Volquez, Zimmerman is worth snapping up late if he can be reserved and kept inexpensively for 2011. I love his potential and would have had him possibly as high as echelon 2 if he were pitching this year. He and Stephen Strasburg will be a viable 1-2 for the Nationals for the coming years.

8. Josh Outman (Tommy John; late ’10), 25 years old, Oakland A’s (echelon 5) – The only reason Outman is echelon 5 is because I’m uncertain how much he can really offer upon his return in 2010. Plus by the time he returns, the Oakland rotation might be locked up so he might be relegated to relief work.

9. Dustin McGowan (shoulder; mid ’10), 27 years old, Toronto Blue Jays (echelon 5) – He didn’t throw a pitch last year and likely won’t throw one until midseason this year. Plus he’s really only had one above average season thus far. He’s displayed solid skills in his 354 major league innings (7.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9), but he’s complete wildcard with this much time off.

10. Shawn Hill (Tommy John; mid ’10), 28 years old, Toronto Blue Jays (echelon 5) – He’s another guy who always seems to be injured with one thing or another. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but holds enough control to manage a 2.0 K/BB rate. I liked him better in Washington and even better in San Diego. Even a healthy Hill could have some tough sledding in the AL Beast.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Strategy | 8 Comments »

Tuesday: 02.2.2010

2010 First Basemen Tiers

Let me start off by stating the obvious: first base is remarkably deep this year. I mean, remarkably. That said, it’s still a position that is worth grabbing early on given the abundance of elite-level players at the position sure to go in the first few rounds/for some of your auction’s highest dollar values. In fact, it would not necessarily be out of the ordinary to see five first basemen go in the first round of a standard 12-team mixed league draft followed by a few more in the second and still a few more in the third and fourth. But that doesn’t even begin to dry up the pool which is why matched with the lack of depth at third base, many teams will be looking to scoop two first basemen to cover their 1B and corner infield roster slots.

Unlike with the third basemen, I’m not going to write a full capsule on everybody. The simple fact is that I won’t have enough time this offseason to hit every position with a full rundown if I go that route and I really enjoy the outfield and pitcher lists so I plan to devote my time there. With the podcast taking off, that saps the time that would’ve been used for in-depth capsules on first base, second base, shortstop and catcher. Don’t worry; there will be countless magazines and several other sites available to satiate your need to read more details about each infielder available this year. Besides, I know you’re just here for the rankings anyway.

Tier 1 – The Elite
1. Albert Pujols, STL Cardinals
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET Tigers
3. Prince Fielder, MIL Brewers
4. Mark Teixeira, NY Yankees
5. Ryan Howard, PHI Phillies

Depending on where my pick fell and how the opening round played out, I could envision rostering any one of these five with my first pick. Pujols and Cabrera are obvious to most, but Fielder and Teixeira are almost as obvious to me, too. Fielder is just 26 years old and has already posted two 46+ home run seasons, three straight 100-RBI seasons and has proven to be a batting average asset in two of his four years including a .299 last year. In the two “off” seasons, he still hit a passable .271 and .276.

Teix has disappointed by failing to reach the 43-144 heights of 2005, but I’m more than happy with a four-category beast who promises 100-30-100 with an excellent batting average year after year. And when he does fall short of those thresholds, it’s barely noticeable. In 2006, he “only” scored 99 runs followed by 86 the year after. Those are the only two instances since 2004 where he hasn’t hit those figures. His only departures from the .300 range include seasons of .281, .282 and .292. As for Howard, he doesn’t get much run as a first round because of the fluctuating batting average, but I’m more than willing to subsidize his AVG with an Ichiro or Michael Young later on for the power production he delivers. I think sometimes the fantasy baseball community forgets that we’re not in the early ‘00s anymore so 40+ home run seasons are elite level, let alone 45+ ones. Since 2006, there have been just 13 instances of the latter and Howard owns four of them. That’s right, he’s done it four years in a row and his total accounts for 31% of the whole list. Need more convincing? There have been a whopping five, yes five, 140+ RBI seasons since 2006. Howard has three of them.

Tier 2 – Star Power
6. Joey Votto, CIN Reds
7. Adrian Gonzalez, SD Padres
8. Justin Morneau, MIN Twins
9. Kevin Youkilis, BOS Red Sox
10. Lance Berkman, HOU Astros

A cursory look at Votto’s 2009 line against his 2008 one shows no substantial gain when you see 24/25 home runs, 84/84 RBIs, .297/.322 AVG and 69/82 runs scored, but you have to be careful not to overlook a very key number: 526/469 ABs. He matched or improved his production across the board in fewer at-bats. He’d have had a full on breakout season had he not battled through injuries and depression. Massive gains in OBP (.368/.410) and SLG (.506/.567) show the real growth for Votto in 2009. At 27 years old, he’s poised to follow through on the breakout promise we got a taste of last year. I’d much prefer to take Youkilis as a third basemen, but that doesn’t make him worthless at first, especially if you lock up Alex Rodriguez or Evan Longoria prior to taking Youk.

Injuries sliced into the production of Morneau and Berkman, but I’d happily roster either in 2010 with Morneau the preferable choice if for no other reason than his five year age advantage at 29 years old. In OBP leagues, Berkman remains a true superstar having reached or topped .400 in four of the past five seasons. This year should be no different and while he is showing a four year decline in home runs since 45 in 2006, I think he actually has another 30+ HR season left in his bat. Last year fell short of that mark because of the injury, not because of a skills decline. Big Puma could return a nice little profit on his draft day price, even as a 5th rounder.

Tier 3 – A Mixed Bag
11. Adam Dunn, WAS Nationals
12. Pablo Sandoval, SF Giants
13. Billy Butler, KC Royals
14. Kendry Morales, LA Angels
15. Derrek Lee, CHI Cubs

Do you see what I mean about the depth here? This group is a nice mix of youth and age all with distinct skill sets. They don’t necessarily have flaws, but they lack a little something that keeps them from cracking the top 10. Dunn has the consistently excellent power, but he does negatively impact the batting average. I maintain that the impact is largely overblown in most circles, but it’s still an issue. Sandoval set the world on fire last year, but he’s better suited to fill your third base slot not only because that position is thin but because he doesn’t bring the power you typically like to see out of your 1B.

Butler is similar to Sandoval in that he doesn’t quite bring the power totals you’d like to see for the position and he doesn’t have the luxury of qualifying at another position offset that slight deficiency. However, as one of only two players in 2009 to top 50 doubles, I’m betting on a power spike in 2010 and could see Butler chasing down 30 HR by season’s end. The reason he still rates 13th though is because he is just 24 still and the power spike could still be a year off. I realize that’s a hedge and seems to straddle the fence, but anyone who has done a mock draft with me this winter knows that I fully believe the spike is coming this year. I’m comfortable enough betting on a repeat from Morales in 2010, but the fact that he was waiver wire fodder until last year’s breakout makes him at least somewhat risky. Lee’s age (35) and seemingly aberrant power spike stand out as red flags. Injuries, both nagging and severe, seem to have sapped his power in the previous three seasons so perhaps he was just displaying his 2005 skill with a bit of age progression last year. We will see in 2010.

Tier 4 – Worthy Investments
16. Carlos Pena, TB Rays
17. James Loney, LA Dodgers
18. Chris Davis, TEX Rangers
19. Michael Cuddyer, MIN Twins
20. Paul Konerko, CHI White Sox
21. Todd Helton, COL Rockies
22. Jorge Cantu, FLO Marlins
23. Adam LaRoche, SF Giants
24. Nick Swisher, NY Yankees
25. Nick Johnson, NY Yankees

As the tier name suggests, these are good players to own but either their skills ultimately fall short of those they are listed behind or they have a glaring risk or two that puts them in this 16-25 range. Pena has absurd amounts of power, but he hasn’t topped 500 at-bats ever in his career and while I’ll build a case that a .255-.260 average won’t kill your team as much as many believe, I’d have a helluva time doing the same for a .227 average, which Pena hit last year. Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum, Loney has the batting average and logs the playing time but simply hasn’t displayed the power desired at 1B. He is entering his prime this year at age 26.

Davis flopped last year, but has tremendous power and ended with a great September. Cuddyer has a spotty track record after posting his first useful season since 2006 and if he struggles, there are capable replacements on the Twins. Konerko has a few more 30-90 seasons in him. Helton is 100 years old and hasn’t topped 20 home runs since 2004. Cantu has displayed Cuddyer-like inconsistency, but at least managed to avoid being a total bust after his 2008 rebirth unlike his follow-up to his 2005 breakout. LaRoche and Swisher are infuriating to impatient owners, but reward those who wait them out all season with bankable consistency each year. The other New York Nick is a health nightmare, but could put up a 90 run, .290 average, 12 home run odd, but useful season best suited for your corner infield or DH position.

Tier 5 – Still Mixed-League Worthy
26. Matt LaPorta, CLE Indians
27. Garrett Jones, PIT Pirates
28. Carlos Delgado, Free Agent
29. Martin Prado, ATL Braves
30. Troy Glaus, ATL Braves

LaPorta is a guy I’m rather high on for 2010. He had some surgery this offseason which could cause him to start slowly in Spring Training and perhaps through April, but once he gets going he will be a legitimate power source capable of mid-20s home runs with a boatload of RBIs, too. If he hits the ground running right out of spring, he could top 30 homers. Many don’t believe in Jones’ excellent 314 at-bat sample from 2009, but there are parts worth buying into. He won’t knock 40 homers with a 600-AB season, but he could reach 30. Don’t pay for a .293 batting average, look for closer to .270, but the power is real with a tick of speed (another 10 SB season, but in a full season). Delgado is just a season removed from a 38-home run season back in 2008, so I’m reticent to write him off just yet even at the advanced age of 38. Prado’s value is tied to his multi-positional eligibility which includes second and third base. He doesn’t have enough power for first base, but I listed him because he could fill in at corner-infielder. I like him for 2010, but mostly at second base. Glaus doesn’t qualify at first yet, but he will very quickly into 2010 giving him 1B/3B eligibility.

Tier 6 – Single League Options (Youth, Mid Prime, Past Prime)
– Brandon Allen
– Daric Barton
– Kila Ka’aihue
– Steve Pearce
– Gaby Sanchez
– Brett Wallace
– Brandon Wood
—
– Garrett Atkins
– Willy Aybar
– Hank Blalock
– Ryan Garko
– Micah Hoffpauir
– Travis Ishikawa
– Casey Kotchman
– Daniel Murphy
– David Murphy
—
– Russ Branyan
– Jason Giambi
– Aubrey Huff
– Lyle Overbay
– Ty Wigginton

There’s a real grab bag of players here from unproven young lottery tickets to uninspiring but capable mid-primers to veterans with a little something left in the tank. Only the deepest mixed leagues (15+ teams) would consider these guys, but single leagues will see these guys filling corner and DH spots as well as reserve rosters. My favorites from each group are Wood, David Murphy and Overbay.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, First Base, Player Focus, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 01.29.2010

Top 52 Starting Pitchers v2.0

Back in early November I posted my top 60 pitchers which accounted for tiers 1 and 2 of my rankings. I hadn’t really chewed on the season yet so it was never going to be final product, but now looking back is almost laughable. For starters, I foolishly forgot that Jordan Zimmerman had been injured and is slated to miss all of or at least most of the 2010 campaign making his 54th ranking a bit odd. I’m also a bit unhappy with the inclusions of Gil Meche (57) and Joba Chamberlain (59) as I feel they really stick out as not belonging.

As I knew I would, the list has been overhauled completely. I didn’t just rework the November list, I started from scratch. The new product shows eight fewer pitchers in my top two tiers and some new faces meaning even more than eight have departed from the first iteration. I haven’t put the pitchers in any order except to identify tiers 1 and 2. That doesn’t mean that all 15 in tier 1 are 100% interchangeable, just that I find them the most ace-worthy arms. The idea is that there is almost no risk (at least no overt risk, there is always a risk with pitchers) with this group anchoring your staff for 2010. Tier 2ers have at least one standing question about them that could roadblock them from an elite season whether it’s simply the uncertainty of youth, the fear of recurring injury from 2009 or just a skills hurdle (control, gopheritis, etc…) to believe they can be true aces. Tier 2 is a mix of high skills and moderate risk with some above average skill/low risk guys in for good measure.

Again, I’ve opted to just list the two tiers without ranking each because the point isn’t to debate whether Zack Greinke should be above Felix Hernandez or not. That’s largely irrelevant in the grand scheme because their value in 2010 will be too similar to be concerned about whether they’re list 4th or 5th.

Tier 1
1. Dan Haren, ARI Diamondbacks
2. Josh Beckett, BOS Red Sox
3. Jake Peavy, CHI White Sox
4. Justin Verlander, DET Tigers
5. Josh Johnson, FLO Marlins
6. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU Astros
7. Zack Greinke, KC Royals
8. Johan Santana, NY Mets
9. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees
10. Roy Halladay, PHI Phillies
11. Cole Hamels, PHI Phillies
12. Felix Hernandez, SEA Mariners
13. Cliff Lee, SEA Mariners
14. Tim Lincecum, SF Giants
15. Adam Wainwright, STL Cardinals

Tier 2
16. Edwin Jackson, ARI Diamondbacks
17. Brandon Webb, ARI Diamondbacks
18. Tommy Hanson, ATL Braves
19. Jair Jurrjens, ATL Braves
20. John Lackey, BOS Red Sox
21. Jon Lester, BOS Red Sox
22. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS Red Sox
23. Ryan Dempster, CHI Cubs
24. Ted Lilly, CHI Cubs
25. Carlos Zambrano, CHI Cubs
26. John Danks, CHI White Sox
27. Gavin Floyd, CHI White Sox
28. Johnny Cueto, CIN Reds
29. Aaron Harang, CIN Reds
30. Jorge de la Rosa, COL Rockies
31. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL Rockies
32. Max Scherzer, DET Tigers
33. Ricky Nolasco, FLO Marlins
34. Roy Oswalt, HOU Astros
35. Scott Kazmir, LA Angels
36. Jered Weaver, LA Angels
37. Chad Billingsley, LA Dodgers
38. Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers
39. Scott Baker, MIN Twins
40. Francisco Liriano, MIN Twins
41. Kevin Slowey, MIN Twins
42. Yovani Gallardo, MIL Brewers
43. A.J. Burnett, NY Yankees
44. Javier Vazquez, NY Yankees
45. Brett Anderson, OAK Athletics
46. Matt Cain, SF Giants
47. Chris Carpenter, STL Cardinals
48. Matt Garza, TB Rays
49. Jeff Niemann, TB Rays
50. David Price, TB Rays
51. James Shields, TB Rays
52. Rich Harden, TEX Rangers

There is an inherent risk with drafting starting pitchers, we’re all aware of that. That’s why Tier 1 is such a small class of bankable arms capable of 200 quality innings yielding exemplary ratios and a bundle of strikeouts. Tier 2 is also mindful of risk, but there are smart risks throughout the list. Brandon Webb is returning from a completely lost season, but signs point to a fully healthy return. Generally he is a Tier 1 pitcher, but given the lost season he gets bumped down. Francisco Liriano carried a 5.80 ERA last year making his appearance Tier 2 look out of place, but had FIP and xFIP number significantly lower (4.87 and 4.55, respectively) and struck out eight batters per nine innings (122 in 137 innings). Combine that with his dominant showing in the Dominican League this winter and I like his potential for 2010. The beauty of someone like Liriano and a handful of others in Tier 2 is that they will be had much cheaper.

I’ll release the remaining tiers soon. I’ve got 210 total arms and Tier 3 is the biggest so I’ll be releasing it by itself.

SP List v1.0

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Predictions, Strategy | 4 Comments »

Thursday: 01.21.2010

26 Under 26 Part 1

As I prepare myself for another fantasy baseball season (which seems to be a year-round endeavor these days, and I’m not complaining), I love to see how everyone is valuing “The Next Big Things”. I think as a whole the fantasy community generally overvalues youth in hopes of landing the next Albert Pujols or Ryan Braun. Then when someone does struggle out of the gate (as many, perhaps most, do), they are cast aside as a failure by a large segment of the community as another next big thing is put on a pedestal. This then creates value in subsequent seasons for the “failures”.

I used to heavily favor youth in my gameplan, probably to a fault. But in recent years I’ve become much more risk averse and therefore have curbed my desire to acquire rookies unless they present tremendous value. Of course they are caveats to all strategies based on the draft you’re in. I won’t get into those right now because that’s probably a whole other 2000-word piece. I want to present a group of 26 players 26 & under who I think are ready for a significant step forward. There aren’t any superstars on this list. Everyone knows that Prince Fielder is a stud who will deliver. Same with Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton and Evan Longoria. These are first and second rounders that I don’t need to cover. That isn’t to say the list is a group of unknowns. That’s not the case at all. It’s just a group of young players poised for a step forward that will give them value beyond their average draft position (ADP).

I’ve ranked the 26 players based on their overall value in my estimation:

26. Jesus Flores, C – Washington Nationals – I wanted to rate him as high as 23rd, but the presence of Ivan Rodriguez makes that impossible. Despite being 100 years old, Pudge is still churning out the at-bats however poor they may be and that will relegate Flores to a sub-400 AB season barring an injury or a complete fade of Pudge’s skills (I’m talking even worse than his .664 OPS from last year). Flores has had flashes and through 90 at-bats last year, he appeared to be in on his way towards a breakout season hitting .311/.382/.522. Injuries would relegate him to just three at-bats the rest of the way. Even in 350 at-bats, he could pop 12-14 home runs with a .270 average. That’s a pretty solid C2, heck it wouldn’t be the worst C1 given the wasteland that is catching.

25. Steve Pearce, 1B – Pittsburgh Pirates – After just 165 at-bats last year, Pearce should be ready for a full workload in 2010. It’s make or break time for him with the Pirates as they are starting to build something bordering on legitimacy with this front office and he will be pressed out of action if he hits .206 again. I see Pearce putting up a Garrett Jones-type season (low 20s in home runs with 10-12 stolen bases) except across 450-500 ABs instead of the 314 Jones used to hit 21 bombs with a .293 average. Pearce struggles far too much against righties to hit .293 like Jones without vast improvement, but he can mash lefties enough to sustain a .265 average. He’s definitely an NL-Only league option right now, but like Jones he could emerge into an option across all formats.

24. Buster Posey, C – San Francisco Giants – I discussed Posey for 2010 in a piece some time back. I think he will be impactful as a mid-level catcher, but the fantasy community appears to have learned from Matt Wieters a season ago. Posey isn’t going outrageously early and that’s good because he is very unlikely to have a massive season. Geovany Soto’s 2008 is an exception to how rookie catchers perform while Wieters’ struggles relative to expectations is more in line with what you should expect. There is so much demand defensively and with handling the staff that hitting becomes secondary. Play up Posey’s poor showing at the AFL when he was clearly gassed from such a laborious season and hopefully you can drive his value down even further. A hot spring would likely put him in the Wieters Zone, but stay strong and value him around what John Baker was last year, at least in terms of overall value ($11). … Stupid Bengie Molina!!!

23. Chris Young, OF – Arizona Diamondbacks – Yes, I love the guy. I know I’m not alone but this bandwagon has cleared out since the beginning of 2009. It is so hard to forget the 32 home runs and 27 stolen bases from 2007. At 26, it’s not unreasonable to believe he can get back to that level or better, but it is going to take significant improvements from Young. He must change his approach if he wants to stick around in this league. The simple fact is that his tools alone, which are plentiful, won’t get him through 162 games. At least not 162 games at the major league level. This is his last chance to a relevant fantasy asset. He will come cheap and could return massive dividends.

22. Eric Young Jr., 2B – Colorado Rockies – Young doesn’t have a guaranteed spot in 2010, but he will contend with Clint Barmes and could push his way into some outfield at-bats, too. His primary asset is a ridiculous amount of speed. In the minors since 2006, he’s stolen 87, 73, 46 and 58 bases while hitting between .290 and .299. His ceiling in 2010 would be a Juan Pierre clone, but I wouldn’t bank on the batting average coming right away. Though it was just 57 at-bats, Young looked lost at the dish during his big league stint in August and September. On the low end, he will be a cheap speed option in NL-Only leagues struggling for regular at-bats. Keep an eye on his battle for playing time in Spring Training and pay accordingly.

21. Ryan Sweeney, OF – Oakland A’s – I’m a big fan of Sweeney’s. He’s a very good hitter and he managed to stay relatively healthy and log 484 at-bats. His primary contribution is a high batting average as evidenced by his .293 last year and .291 in 1928 minor league at-bats. He’s got the ability to hit .310-.320, but it remains to be seen how much more he can offer apart from that. He doesn’t do much by way of home runs or stolen bases while his runs scored and driven totals are hampered by being on an anemic squad in Oakland. At 25 (in February), he is still growing as a hitter so I think we will see more power come perhaps even in 2010. I think his ceiling is about 12-14, especially in that cavernous ballpark. He has the ability to match that figure in stolen bases, but given his injury history I don’t see the A’s putting any unnecessary pressure on his body and allowing him to run much more than he did last year.

20. Lastings Milledge, OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – Some idiot thought this guy was going to be HUGE last year. Yep, it was me. The only huge stat he posted in 2009 was games missed: 97. In late June he was traded from the Nationals to the Pirates where he will now be a left fielder after the emergence of uber-prospect Andrew McCutchen in center. Milledge, like a handful of guys on this list, is someone who has been labeled a bust already despite the fact that he isn’t yet 25 years old (April 5th) and has 1117 at-bats spreading across parts of three seasons and one full season. He’s the kind of guy who starts reaching his potential and people write stupid articles headlined, “Where Did Milledge Come From?” as if he’s a complete unknown or as if there wasn’t a colossal overreaction to bury these kids the instant they don’t come up and hit like Ryan Braun. Milledge is a very good power/speed capable of topping his 14 HR/24 SB season from 2008, but probably not right away. I would use that season as a gauge of what Milledge is capable of, but don’t pay for based off of that season for the simple fact that it’s completely unnecessary. He’s available VERY late across all formats.

I will do another part with 19-11 and then 10-1 soon.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 01.18.2010

2010 Focus: Grady Sizemore

Despite playing for a chief rival of my beloved Detroit Tigers, Grady Sizemore is a favorite of mine. He’s a do-everything fantasy asset that is important to the Indians as he is to your fantasy team and few guys were more sought after coming into the 2009 season than Sizemore. He was fresh off of a 30-30 season in 2008 and the only thing keeping him from being a legitimate #1 overall pick contender was batting average, which had lingered around .270 the two seasons prior to 2009. He was as reliable as they come too having played in 158, 162, 162 and 157 games in the four years leading up to 2009. So what happened?

Of course he only played 108 games, most of which he seemed to labor through with nagging injuries that would eventually shelve him for most of June and September, and failed to reach even .250 (.248) while hitting just 18 home runs and knocking in 64 runs. His 13 stolen bases were 25 off of his 2008 mark. It was a pretty significant bust of a season instead of a bust out 40-40 chasing season. But enough about last year. We need to accept that it was a washed out season and look forward to what Sizemore can do in 2010.

As is almost always the case, stars coming off of washout seasons in one year should be primary targets the next (exceptions being major, career-altering injuries). This is because the general populous of fantasy baseball owners tends to forgot those who don’t play or under-perform expectations. If not forget, at least shun. Sizemore’s average draft position (ADP) so far this season is 25th, which is third round for standard 12-team mixed mock draft. Even in AL Only leagues he’s sitting at 12th overall. Wow, how quickly we forget that this guy was a perennial 25-25 guys with 100 runs and 80 RBIs from 2005-2008. Mind you, this slide doesn’t bother me, especially if it holds until the Spring when real drafts and auctions start to take place. All things out of Cleveland have Sizemore at 100% by Spring Training and if he performs at all in the Cactus League, his draft spot will start heading upward.

Of the 24 going ahead of him right now, I’d take him ahead of Tim Lincecum (12), Ian Kinsler (16), Mark Reynolds (19), Victor Martinez (22), Jason Bay (23) and Matt Holliday (24). I would have a tough call between he and Carl Crawford (14) and might normally slot him above Jimmy Rollins (20) and Jose Reyes (21) if shortstop weren’t so god-awfully shallow. And I’d personally prefer him over Ryan Howard (10), but not at Howard’s ADP so I didn’t include him. The trick with a draft is that you don’t know where the other owners value everyone else so sometimes you have to take what might look like a reach to some but is impossible to really judge. If I’m picking 8th in a 12 team and I get Miguel Cabrera in the first round and then Sizemore is available at 17, I have to take him if I want him because there is virtually no chance he’s going to make it to 32. Is that a reach because his ADP is eight spots lower or is the right move because I took him with my slot in that ADP range. My only pick near the #25 spot is #17, so I either get my guy or bet that he’s now going to fall below seven spots below his ADP.

But enough on game theory in straight drafts. The bottom line is that I’m in the camp ready to bet on a full return by Sizemore in 2010. I wouldn’t let him get past me in the 2nd round of straight drafts regardless of what slot I’m picking in and I see him as a centerpiece investment in auction leagues. The beauty of it is you might not have to invest in him like a top tier player depending on when your auction takes place. Since a lot (ok, 4) of emailers have asked for the projection line as in the Wieters and Posey profiles, I will oblige.

Sizemore in 2009: .248-73-18-64-13
Sizemore in 2010: .290-115-32-85-25

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Thursday: 01.7.2010

2010 Third Basemen: 10-1

Finally wrapping up my three part series on third basemen with my top 10. As I’ve blasted through several mock drafts already this offseason, one thing was apparent early on: 3B is paper thin. It’s not the thinnest position, I will get to that next week when I unveil my shortstop rankings, but it’s a close second. There is some viable star power at the top, but it dries up in a hurry and then becomes a handful of names in a hat. I don’t even think the top 10 is fully bankable, starting at 10:

10. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves – Jones has topped 500 at-bats just once in the last six seasons (513 in 2007) yet he has managed to routinely put up top tier seasons in his limited playing time. Until last year. It was his worst HR (18) and RBI (71) season ever and his second-worst batting average (.264). His .264 was a 100-drop from his excellent 2008 leaving many wondering what to make of the two vastly disparate seasons. He hit .292 in the first half followed by .239 in the second so it’s hard to make much out of 255 poor at-bats. His 2008 power was a significant decline from where he had been all his career and then 2009 was another stair step down suggesting that it is likely for real at age 38. He is likely done with 20-home run seasons, but another .300 season may not be out of the question. Don’t pay for anything more than .285-15-75 while praying for .320-20-90 in one final hurrah.

9. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox – Youk acquitted himself brilliantly after a 2008 breakout turning in a near carbon copy performance in 33 fewer plate appearances. Though more valuable at third base without question, his dual-eligibility (1B) is a nice bonus. At 31, it looks like he has another 2-3 seasons at this level with a legitimate shot to top 30 home runs. In an OBP-league, Youk goes from solid to truly elite in the rate category. He is well known for his batting eye and after back-to-back .390 OBP seasons, he finally topped .400 last year (.413). If your league penalizes for getting your punkass smoked by 20-year old future aces, you may want to pass on Youkilis.

8. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants – I was a bit skeptical of Sandoval coming into last season. The hype was massive especially as many salivated over his potential catcher-eligibility. He eventually delivered to the leagues with loosest eligibility rules as he played three games behind the dish, but his stats were so good that it didn’t matter where you put him in your lineup. Like Youkilis, he holds 1B/3B eligibility though his days as a backstop are likely over. I don’t mind admitting I missed the boat on Sandoval, but I refuse to make the same mistake twice. There is nothing in his stat set that suggests he is a fraud and at 24, there is likely more power on the way. He racked up 79 runs and 90 RBIs in that garbage lineup last year which stands to improve in 2010 with newly acquired Mark DeRosa, a full season of Freddy Sanchez, growth in a full time role from Nate Schierholtz and rookie phenom Buster Posey. This could push Sandoval into 90 R/100 RBI territory if things break right. Plenty to like here.

7. Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks – This ranking isn’t a complete indictment of Reynolds so much as it is my preference for six others above him. That is to say I don’t think he will be a bum in 2010. He has completely legit middle-of-the-lineup power, but a 26% HR/FB just isn’t sustainable meaning the 44 HR total is coming down. I expect him to be in the low 30s for home runs this year. A lot is made of his batting average going from .239 in 2008 to .260 last year, but you are really looking at about 11-12 hits either way. Over the course of 26 weeks, that isn’t much. The home run dip will definitely drop his value from where it was in 2009, but the real drop will come in the stolen base department. He is much more likely to get the 11 he had in 2008 than the 24 he had last year. I would put him in the mid-teens and go from there. Consider that he had 11 in 1216 minor league at-bats and none during his first 405 major league at-bats. Even a .250-30-90-13 line is extremely valuable despite being a far cry from his 2009 breakout. The problem is that you’re going to pay a premium for 2009 in many leagues.

6. Chone Figgins, Seattle Mariners – Going from fantasy baseball Swiss Army Knife to 3B-only has impacted Figgins’ value. Unfairly in my opinion. Yes it was awesome when you could slot him in so many different spots, especially the middle infield spots, but he’s not worthless as a third baseman. Third base is a power position, but if you draft Figgins there you just adjust your plan to get power elsewhere. It’s not the end of the world. To hear some talk about it, if you draft Figgins you’re destined to last place in home runs before the season even starts. He has slowly added a sharp eye to his arsenal topping 100 walks for the first time ever last year. Though it was a large 39-walk improvement from 2008, it is supported by his gradual improvement since 2005. A great average and high walk total are perfect for improving his primary offerings in fantasy baseball: runs scored and stolen bases. A .290-100-40 line makes Figgins a viable 3-category. It’s not the three you generally you expect out of third base, but that doesn’t mean it is bad, just different.

5. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs – Ramirez labored through a bum shoulder in 2009 that relegated him to just 306 at-bats, but he still managed .317-46-15-65 in that time. He’s one of the more unheralded corner men as compared to his peers in this top 10, but he is as consistent as they get when on the field. And better yet, he won’t cost as much as some who will rank behind him. He’s had a few other stints on the disabled list during his time, but from 2001-2008 he averaged 146 games played with 30 HR and 100 RBI while hitting .289. The time off this winter gives him time to heal and come into Spring Training at 100%. A 100% Ramirez means another 30/100 season. He appears to have cured his woes against southpaws (.239 in 2008, .350 in ’09) making another .300+ season a near certainty. He should come cheaper than many of the elite 3B making him a great target.

4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals – From a pure value as compared to draft position standpoint, there might not have been anyone better than Zimmerman last year. Would you be surprised if I told you it was Zimmerman’s fourth full season in the bigs last year? Or would you more surprised if I told you he is just 25 years old? It should be no surprise that a player who showed excellent promise upon reaching the majors still had room to grow by season four and may still have another level yet. Too often a player is pigeonholed after a season or two when they first come up without much thought given to the fact that young players can get better as they pile up at-bats even if those first two seasons were very good. He has .310+ capability in his bat which take him up another level in the overall rankings when paired with 100-35-100. Don’t back down in a bidding war for his services.

3. David Wright, New York Mets – I originally had Wright second ahead of Longoria, but upon further review I made the switch but I don’t hate Wright in 2010 as many do. He had a bad season in 2009, there are no two ways around it. But he was positively brilliant for four straight seasons before that so why should one down season erase that body of work? That answer is it shouldn’t but in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately culture we live in, his value will be depressed (severely in some instances) on the heels of last year. Make no mistake, Citi Field WAS NOT the reason for his power outage. I don’t care how many magazines or how many times ESPN tells you as much, it’s simply not true. Trying to make heads or tails of his 2009 is fruitless endeavor. You can try and tailor excuses to fit his struggles and talk about how his stolen base bump alleviated some of the pain of the power outage, but it’s all futile at this point. He had a poor season. They happen. Even to superstars. He is going to be 27 in 2010 and if early mock drafts are any indication, he is going to be a huge value. He went 11th in an NL-Only I did and 15th (to me) in a 15 team mixed league that I was in. A good spring will restore the faith back in him and level set his value where it belongs, but anything mediocre or worse will leave him in the bargain zone.

2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays – An amazing pair of seasons already for Longoria who turned 24 in the offseason and has an even brighter future ahead of him. I think both 40-HR and .300+ AVG capability are within his skillset, though the latter may take another two to three years to develop as he works on his ability to make contact more consistently while the former could happen as soon as 2010. He may even sneak into the low teens in stolen bases after notching seven and nine in his first two seasons. There isn’t much more to say about this budding superstar except that I like him as a late first/early second round pick in mixed drafts and as high as third overall (behind A-Rod and Miguel Cabrera) in AL-Only leagues.

1. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees – In 444 at-bats, he nearly matched the 2008 totals he accumulated in 510 at-bats. And that was coming off of hip surgery and a remarkably tumultuous offseason during which he confessed to taking PEDs. At 34, he remains one of baseball’s absolute best players and he has another 2-3 MVP-caliber seasons in him starting with a healthy 2010. The mock drafters are very cognizant of this fact as he has an ADP of 3 at both CouchManagers.com and MockDraftCentral.com. Even with the hip surgery, he came back and stole 14 bases when many believed that element of his game would be almost completely cut out. He remains a bona fide 5-category superstar worthy of that ADP. In AL-Only leagues, he’s still my first pick overall. I’m so very glad I went against my initial instinct and bought into the hype about the injury and missed time during the preseason last year. As you may recall (since I’ve told the story ~ 4.7 million times), I had to turn in a 2-keeper list for my AL-Only league. I had Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and BJ Upton. I figured those were three of the top five in the AL at their best so I went with the two who would be playing from Opening Day and threw A-Rod back. It was the first time in 13 years that A-Rod wasn’t on my team and it cursed my season from the start. He was drafted second overall (behind Matt Holliday) and likely won’t be available to draft in the league ever again unless he hangs around too long and has a few flameout seasons at the end. For the record, I’m keeping Joe Mauer with Teixiera this year.

Next up: Shortstops

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Strategy, Third Base | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 12.23.2009

2010 Focus: Kevin Slowey

One of my favorite pitchers coming into 2009, Slowey was cut down after just 91 innings with a strained right wrist that eventually required surgery and ended his season on July 3rd. Though known for his remarkable control, Slowey isn’t a junkballer who gets by strictly on that control. He has maintained an above average strikeout rate since coming into the league in 2007 and it has steadily improved year over year. He went from 6.3 in 67 innings in 2007 to 6.9 in 160 innings in 2008 to a very healthy 7.4 last year. All the while keeping his BB/9 in the 1.3 to 1.5 range. That is sheer brilliance. To wit, only Joel Pineiro (1.1) and Roy Halladay (1.3) were sharper in 2009 amongst pitchers with at least as many innings as Slowey (1.5). In 2008, nobody bested Slowey’s 1.35 mark. It was moved out two decimal places because Cliff Lee (1.37), Mike Mussina (1.39) and Greg Maddux (1.39) were close. And in 2007, even with keeping the innings threshold in line with Slowey’s total (67), he finished 7th at 1.5.

He is expected to be ready to go by the start of Spring Training and I expect him to pick up where he left off and make good on the breakout promise he has shown thus far. He will be 26 years old shortly after the season begins (May 4th to be exact) and I believe he has another level to be reached in his game. It will all hinge upon his ability to keep the ball in the yard. Slowey is a severe flyball pitcher which thus far stands as the lone fly in his ointment (see what I did there?). It has led to ugly HR/9 rates ranging from 1.2 (in 2008 during his best season) to 2.2 (in 2007 which led to a 4.76 ERA). Last year, despite a brilliant 5.0 K/BB ratio, he was saddled with a career-worst 4.86 ERA because of a 1.5 HR/9.

The potential downside of the laser-like control displayed by Slowey is the fact that the ball is almost always over the plate. That means the ball will be hit, often. Where it goes determines the pitcher’s success. The perfect storm is pinpoint control and a high groundball rate to match. That leads to something resembling Pineiro’s excellent 2009 season in which he had a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP thanks to a 60% GB rate accompanying his aforementioned league-best BB/9 of 1.1. Imagine if he had the strikeout rate of Slowey, he’d have been nearly untouchable.

I don’t expect Slowey to all of a sudden induce groundballs at that kind of eye-popping clip. Heck, no one expected Pineiro to either as it was an 11% increase on the rate he had produced in the two years previous. Right now, Slowey is averaging around 33% each year. In order to have the kind of staff-leading season his K/BB suggests he can have, he will need to get that up to at least 40% if not closer to 45%. In the absence of such a rise, he will need to dramatically cut his HR/9. It can be done. Jered Weaver has shown as much with a flyball rate nearly identical to Slowey’s, but a HR/9 consistently at 1.0. Of course Weaver does this by defying the generally accepted norm of 10% HR/fb rate. He has held steady at 8% for virtually his entire career. Slowey can learn from what Weaver is doing should he not be able to correct his flyball ways instead.

For now, I strongly advise you pay for 2008 as your ceiling (3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, nearly 7.0 K/9) while knowing that hidden value may be on the horizon in the form of an improved groundball rate which could easily lop as much as 0.50 off of his ERA giving you an ace-like pitcher at #2 or even #3 cost, depending on how your league values injury comebacks. Go the extra dollar to secure his services and your WHIP will thank you mightily.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 12.15.2009

2010 Third Basemen: 18-34 & Others

The long promised tour around the diamond is finally beginning! I severely underestimated how busy work would be as the holidays approached. I’m in a different role than I was this time last year so I didn’t really know what to expect. Then a stint on the DL this weekend backed up this piece and the shortstops one. Don’t worry though, there will be plenty of content throughout December, January, February and March. Without further ado, let’s start the 2010 rankings:

I arduously debated how I was going to do this list before finally settling on what you’re about to read. I’m not sure the rest of the infield will be like this or not, but this is how I’m going to run with the hot corner. The goal, for me, is to write about enough players at a position without going overboard. The problem is that I’m not great at writing just a little bit about guys, but at the same time there are a group of players that simply don’t need 1,000 words written about them for the upcoming season. So I’ve put together a list of 47 players eligible for third base. The first group of 13 is what I’ll call the Clearance Bin. They won’t be drafted in a lot of leagues, and they will last deep into the draft of the leagues they will be selected in, but they have some value. The remaining 34 will be split into two groups of 17 with the first group (18-34) holding a level of upside that will merit drafting in most leagues depending on the various structures.

Clearance Bin (listed alphabetically)

Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates – His value in keeper leagues is much different than it is in one-year leagues. He hasn’t hit AAA yet so even if he does come up in 2010, it likely won’t be until after the All-Star Break.

Geoff Blum, Houston Astros – He’s 37 years old with a little pop in his bat, but not much else. The Astros are seeking a better option at third base which will only crush Blum’s miniscule value into complete oblivion.

Emilio Bonifacio, Florida Marlins – Looking at his batting average from Opening Day throughout May looks like the Dow as it steadily dwindles from .800 to .269 by month’s end. He set the fantasy world afire those first few weeks, but many saw him for the fraud he was pretty quickly. He’s cheap speed who will likely be picked up repeatedly throughout the season for those looking to pick up a quick base or two.

Pedro Feliz, Free Agent – He just watched the Phillies sign his replacement in Placido Polanco, but he won’t go unemployed given his strong defense and capable bat. As of right now, the Astros, Orioles and Twins have all been rumored to be interested. (The Astros have since signed Feliz.)

Josh Fields, Kansas City Royals – After a 23 HR debut back in 2007, Fields has disappointed in the two seasons since and now he finds himself with a change of scenery. He’s blocked by Alex Gordon, but Gordon hasn’t exactly been the model of health nor played up to expectations so Fields could get some time. He is still just 27 (on December 14th), but it remains to be seen if he can recapture the power stroke he displayed in 2007.

Mike Fontenot, Chicago Cubs – After a strong 243 at-bat sample in 2008, Fontenot was projected to build on that success in 2009, but instead fell flat on his face barely matching his counting stats in 130 more at-bats while dropping his average from .305 to .236. Now he enters 2010 as a 29-year old utility man, whose playing time is uncertain as the Cubs will no doubt be among the movers & shakers during the offseason.

Jake Fox, Oakland A’s – Fox hit the radar last year by hitting .409 and 17 home runs in 194 minor league at-bats prior to reaching the majors. He didn’t quite bring that kind of average and power to majors hitting .259 with 11 home runs. The playing time will be available in Oakland, but we all know how offense gets sapped in that park, too. As a guy with 20 home run potential, he just missed the cut into the Clearance Bin, but for now here is where he resides.

Mat Gamel, Milwaukee Brewers – Gamel is a big time power prospect who got his first taste in the majors last year, but didn’t do a whole lot. The emergence of Casey McGeehee and return of Rickie Weeks could relegate Gamel to bench duty, especially since he is atrocious in the field.

Troy Glaus, Free Agent – He’s 33, coming off of a lost season, injury prone and jobless. I don’t think he will remain jobless, but betting on a 2008 repeat (.270 AVG, 27 HR, 99 RBI) is a very risky proposition. He could easily make the top 34 once his 2010 destination is known, for now he’s a non-factor in most formats.

Jerry Hairston Jr., New York Yankees – A veritable fantasy baseball Swiss Army Knife, Hairston can play several positions, but that’s about the extent of his value. He’s never going to be an everyday player, but he can be a stopgap capable of running a bit.

Bill Hall, Seattle Mariners – With Chone Figgins aboard, Hall is really going to struggle for at-bats. It doesn’t help that he was completely awful in 2009 hitting just .201 in 334 at-bats with eight home runs. His 35 home run season back in 2006 seems eons away at this point.

Adam Kennedy, Free Agent – A career resurgence at age 33 should get Kennedy signed this offseason, but there is absolutely no reason to bet on a 2009 repeat. Seriously, no reason.

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles – He snapped his streak of 20 home run seasons in 2009, but it wasn’t because a lack of playing time. He actually had more at-bats than he had in 2008 when he hit 23 home runs. At 32, he’s not old by any stretch and he should get work in Baltimore as they wait for Josh Bell.

Third Basemen 18-34
34. Garrett Atkins, Free Agent – Atkins was, not surprisingly, cut loose by the Rockies after an abysmal 2009 season. He barely made the cut into the rankings because despite how awful he was last year (.226/.308/.342 in 354 AB), he was one RBI short of three straight 20+/100+ seasons from 2006-2008. Of course even that performance is looked at skeptically because of how disparate his home/road splits were for the latter two years of the stretch (OPS in 2007 H-.936/R-.773; 2008 H-.904/R-.661). I think Baltimore would be a nice destination for him where he could be a usable part in AL-Only leagues with a mid-teen home run total and low 60s RBI total. Think Stephen Drew of 2009, but that’s a ceiling at this point so Atkins still has plenty to prove.

33. Brandon Wood, Los Angeles Angels – The Angels hate Brandon Wood. Don’t ask me why, but it is quite clear that they do. Even with Figgins in Seattle, the depth chart shows Maicer Izturis as the starting third baseman. Despite three straight big seasons in AAA, he can’t get a legitimate shot at the big league level. He has posted a .287/.353/.548 line in 313 AAA games with 76 home runs and 233 RBIs while playing strong defense at shortstop and third base, yet the Angels seem entirely disinterested in using him. His best bet would be to get moved to a team that would actually use him, but in the interim he’s potential-laden 25 year old waiting for a break.

32. Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays – An injury-riddled 2009 saw EE shift from the Reds to the Blue Jays at the trading deadline where he was a little better, but still below average. He has shown the skills of a middle (5-6-7) of the lineup run producer at different times from 2006 to 2008. He looks to be capable of hitting for power, taking walks and managing a strong batting average, but can he put it all together for 600 plate appearances, a mark he has yet to reach in his career. He is in the midst of his prime and he will get every opportunity to succeed with the Jays. He sets up as a decent sleeper whether in a mixed league or AL-Only.

31. Juan Uribe, Free Agent –There is a market for third basemen this year so on the heels of a very strong 2009, Uribe will be picked up by some team despite three sub-.300 OBP seasons in row prior to last year. He has got pop in his bat and plays solid defense, which is essentially the prototype for a third baseman once you get past the game-changers.

30. Brett Wallace, Oakland A’s – Wallace earned this ranking because he has the best shot at a full-time job. A strong 32-game stint (.281/.403/.438) at AA Springfield in the Cardinals organization earned him a promotion to AAA Memphis where he was solid, if unspectacular (.293/.346/.423) in 62 games before being the centerpiece return for Oakland in the Matt Holliday deal. His 44 games in Sacramento (.302/.365/.505) proved to be his most complete stop of the season. Combining it all, he notched 600 plate appearances and posted a .293/.367/.455 line with 20 home runs and 63 RBIs in 138 games. Eric Chavez just isn’t a legitimate roadblock keeping Wallace in AAA so as long as GM Billy Beane thinks his 443 plate appearances proved enough, he should start the season at third. I wouldn’t expect anything higher than .293-20-63 across a full season of work as he will have rookie struggles while playing in an atrocious park for hitters.

29. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia Phillies – Technically he won’t qualify here until he plays 20 games at the hot corner to open the season. Regardless of that fact, he will be drafted as a second baseman and likely stay there for his owner’s team for the duration of the season. With 10 home runs last year and a career high of 17 (set back in 2004 with the Phillies), he just doesn’t have enough power to stick at third base in fantasy baseball. However, since the position is so Mary-Kate Olsen thin, I’m still listing him because there will probably be some owners who get in a situation where they need Polanco there or even perhaps at corner infield. You should draft him as a second baseman and then enjoy his flexibility throughout the season as you deal with injuries or engage various trades. If you enter the 2010 season with him as your #1 third base option, you’d better be excellent everywhere else or you did something wrong.

28. Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds – You can ask me why the Reds traded a 27-year old injury-prone third baseman for a 35-year old injury-prone third baseman, but that doesn’t mean I have an answer. After a career year in 2004 in which he still only played 142 games and snapped a stretch of three straight seasons over 150 games, he played just 56 in 2005. He bounced back with 142 in 2006 giving him five out of six seasons with 142+ games and 593+ plate appearances. That said, he was past 30 and injuries once again became a big part of who he was. An injury-marred 2007 saw his lowest slugging percentage ever at .398 as he managed just 112 games. Things didn’t get much better in 2008 when he played 115 and posted another uncharacteristically low SLG (.431). He missed 34 games last year, but hit .305 with solid runs scored and driven totals despite another meager power output (11 home runs). He will be 35 right around Opening Day and the injury history is too blatant to ignore despite the potential to be a valuable fantasy asset. He’s nothing more than an NL-Only option on draft day.

27. Andy LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates – LaRoche went through an up-and-down 2009 season mixing in two great months with four awful ones leaving him with a .258/.330/.401 line to show for it. With Pedro Alvarez breathing down his neck, the pressure is on to start producing at the level of his minor league tenure: .295/.382/.517 with 95 home runs, 333 RBI and 346 R in 1800 at-bats from 2003-2008. The biggest thing in LaRoche’s favor is that Alvarez has yet to take a swing in AAA, so he will be in Indianapolis for at least two months. But if he tears that league up like he did AA (.333/.419/.590 with 13 HR in 258 PA) and LaRoche struggles, then LaRoche could be in trouble. With Akinori Iwamura brought in to man second base and Garrett Jones and Steven Pearce holding down first base, there aren’t any alternatives for LaRoche right now.

26. Mark Teahen, Chicago White Sox – Teahen is essentially at the ceiling I gave Atkins with additional speed positional flexibility. He is never going to make or break your season unless you play in a 15-team AL Central Only league, then and only then could he become an elite force. Use 2008 and 2009 as a guide and hope he can recapture his 2006-2007 batting average.

25. Brandon Inge, Detroit Tigers – This was virtually a carbon copy of his 2006 breakout except he had a sparkling first half, good enough for an All-Star nod, followed by a putrid second half and 2006 was the reverse. And he played through injuries throughout the second half which really took their toll on his performance at the dish. There was many instances when I was watching him gut it out that I respected the effort, but saw him as a detriment to my Tigers because he just had nothing left in his legs. Assuming full health in 2010, he has high teens power with low 70s RBI capability, but he will always be a drain on the batting average or on-base percentage, depending on league parameters. Don’t bid with 25+ HR power in mind, it takes too much going abnormally right for it to happen consistently for him.

24. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee Brewers – Journeyman minor league castoff latches on with division rival and enjoys a breakout season reaching new heights in many statistical categories. It’s a great story, but it’s incomplete and I have a feeling that Brewers fans might not like the dénouement. At 27, it’s unreasonable to project more growth from McGehee. In fact, projecting anything but regression seems foolish. I think he would be lucky to match his 2009 counting stat totals even with 200 additional PA (from 394 to a round 600). At this point, it remains unclear if he will even be an everyday player with Rickie Weeks back and Mat Gamel looming. Let someone else have this Cinderella story play out on their team because midnight is right around the corner and could hit before Memorial Day of 2010.

23. Mark DeRosa, Free Agent – Though teamless right now, it isn’t because a lack of interest in the veteran utility man. After smashing a career-high 21 home runs in 2008 (previous high was 13 in 2006), DeRosa’s approach went out the window as he seemed set on being a power hitter. Sure, he set a new career high with 23 home runs, but his average plummeted from the 2006-2008 mark of .291 down to .250. I would bet on more of the same in 2010 , but you can do much worse than 75-20-75 with an average around .260-.265 at third base.

22. Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves – Prado is another guy who is eligible at third base, but offers the most value at second base. He will also enter 2010 with first base eligibility making him a daily transaction owner’s dream. He showed signs of his breakout in limited work during 2008 when he posted a .320/.377/.461 line in 254 PA which is nearly identical to his 2009 work of .307/.358/.464 in 503 PA. He’s a great #2 hitter, which is where he saw most of work, but he was a Swiss Army Knife in the lineup too batting everywhere but first throughout the season. The power, though still modest, is a new wrinkle to his game so I wouldn’t bet on a spike even going into his age 26 season, but he can be a very useful player somewhere in the neighborhood of .300-80-10-60 with three position eligibility and a chance to add outfield during the season.

21. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals – Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you. Fool me until you retire because I refuse to give up on you, that is love, not shame. Though he hasn’t progressed as rapidly as many expected or hoped, he is still just 26 years old (or will be in February of 2010) and played just 130 games at AA as his only minor league experience before reaching the majors. He should have been tearing up Omaha for at least a season and a half when he was racking up 1171 big league plate appearances. And he showed marked improvements from years one to two. Last year was a throwaway lost to injury, but it was good that he got two months worth of action to close out the season so that Opening Day 2010 wasn’t his foray back into the mix after hip surgery. This year is definitely put up or shut up, but I think he puts together a fine .275-80-20-80-10 season at a great bargain price as a post-hype sleeper.

20. Mike Lowell, Boston Red Sox (for now) – The word about town is that Lowell is headed to Texas, but he will have to pass a physical first. Anyone who knows anything about Lowell knows that that won’t be easy. I’m willing to be he is in the Opening Day lineup for a team in April (barring a Spring Training injury) and he’s bound to put up season similar to the one he’s up two years in a row: 55 runs, 17 home runs, 75 RBIs, solid to good batting average in fewer than 450 at-bats. Set that as your ceiling and take any at-bats above that mark as pure profit.

19. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres – Headley wasn’t too bad in his first full season of work, but there was a sharp home/road split, just as you might expect from a San Diego Padre. At home, he was a vomit-inducing .208/.300/.351 while sharply improving to .305/.377/.426 on the road. The upshot was that he managed seven home runs at home. If he can match that mark while improving the five from the road, then the high-teens are well within reach.

18. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians – Poised for his biggest season yet, Peralta fell flat on his face with his worst season yet in terms of runs, home runs and all three triple slash stats (average, on-base and slugging). He became a groundball machine (50%) which led to the power outage, which made his 83 RBIs all the more impressive. His 83 RBI/.691 OPS combo was just the second time since 2000 that a player managed that many RBIs or more while posting a .691 OPS or worse. I loved Peralta coming into 2009, but I’m cautiously optimistic for 2010. The groundball percentage spike seems to be only the big change from 2008 to 2009 so a correction there should bring back the .275-80-20-75 lines we saw in three of four seasons from 2005 to 2008. Don’t be surprised Peralta corrects that GB% malfunction and actually builds on his 2008. From the good people of Hedge City, USA – I’m not saying bet on it, just understand that the possibility is real and wouldn’t take a series of events to occur.

Next: 17-1

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Strategy, Third Base | 3 Comments »

Monday: 12.7.2009

Update

I’ve been working hard on material to post this winter and the long-promised third basemen rankings should be out no later than tomorrow evening. From there, I’ll make my way around the diamond. I hope to finish those off before the holidays. Then during my Christmas vacation, I’ll put together & post my monster outfield & pitcher lists.

Of course if the Tigers trade Curtis Granderson, I might jump off of a bridge…

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 12.1.2009

2010 Mock Draft: Round 3

Continuing my analysis of an on-going draft taking place in the BaseballHQ.com forums:

3.1 – Victor Martinez, C/1B – Boston Red Sox
Outside of 2008 in which he was hurt, this is another durable and consistent performer with a solid BB% for a catcher. I’m curious to see if you guys think I’m overvaluing positional scarcity with this pick, but I’m pretty high on V-Mart with a full year in a potent BOS lineup.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Albert Pujols, 1B
Rd 2 – Kevin Youkilis, 3B

My thoughts: This is a powerful team so far with one very scarce (catcher) and another relatively scarce position (third base) locked up. Sometime you’ll hear gripes about picking first, but I think this drafter is off to a great start building around the best player.

3.2 – Dustin Pedroia, 2B – Boston Red Sox
This was a tough one; I think in an absolute sense, I’m passing on a few better players here. But Pedroia gets me a few things:

1. I need some steals after taking Dunn at 2.12.

2. There’s a dearth of OBP at 2B. Pedroia gets me that. And a ton of runs.

3. At just 26 this upcoming year, I get the hope of upside. But if he just does what he did in 08 and 09, I’m still pretty happy. I love the combo of consistency + upside.

Pedroia’s HR and SB splits by half were pretty weird in 2009, but I’ll chalk it up to noise.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Hanley Ramirez, SS
Rd 2 – Adam Dunn, OF/1B

My thoughts: For the reasons the drafter mentioned, Pedroia is a very solid pick here. I really love the trio he has put together. It has dominant OBP, great power, great speed and great runs. Three picks in, I think I like this team the best.

3.5 – Jayson Werth, OF – Philadelphia Phillies
36 HR, including 21 in the second half of 2009, with 20 SB in 23 attempts, this guy is clearly the best power/speed combination still on the board. Strangely enough despite his obvious base-stealing skills, his SX rates under 100 due to the almost total absence of triples. I think the only reason to possibly avoid this guy would be his past injury history, but he has now shown what he can do when completely healthy.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Ryan Braun, OF
Rd 2 – Joey Votto, 1B

My thoughts: Of course as I say I like one team the best, I move on to another that I really like. This team is also very well built with offensive production across the board. The only reason I’d give team 2 the edge is because they have more position scarcity covered.

3.6 – Jason Bay, OF – Boston Red Sox
I felt that I needed to add a run producer since I took Ellsbury with my second pick. In 4 of the last 5 years (2007 was the bad year) Bay has hit over 30 homers, driven in and scored over 100 runs and has not had a OBP below .374. I am a little concerned about his low contact rate but he seemed to make up for it with his 15% BB. I might not have taken him at this point if we were using BA; however his career OBP is very good.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Mark Teixeira, 1B
Rd 2 – Jacoby Ellsbury, OF

My thoughts: Like team 3, this team is building from the deep positions, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. If superstars last, you take them even if they are at the positions perceived to be the deepest. Tremendous power and speed here as well. There are a few others I’d have taken instead of Bay to go with Teix and Ellsbury, but it wasn’t a bad pick, either.

3.07 – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B – Washington
Third base is pretty thin for being a top power position with five very good ones already gone (ARod, Wright, Reynolds, Longoria and Youk). I actually have Zimm ahead of Youk for 3B so I’m getting the 5th-best by my list. His power really developed in 2009 and we might not have seen the peak as he is just 25 years old. With four full seasons under his belt, I’m sure that last piece about his age surprised some of you. His value is unchanged with the switch from AVG to OBP as he remains good, but not great. That said, I think his OBP will improve in the coming seasons by way of more walks. Even if it doesn’t happen in 2010, I’m happy with a big power source locked up at 3B.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Matt Kemp, OF
Rd 2 – Grady Sizemore, OF

My thoughts: I really wanted to get a 3B before the talent cliff dove and I couldn’t be happier with a young emerging star like Zimmerman.

3.8 – Chone Figgins, 3B – Los Angeles Angels
I have to admit since this is a mock draft that I feel like I was forced into this pick. My top 6 guys for this slot were picked in the last 8 picks and I feel that the dropoff at 3rd base for the team I’m building is huge after Figgins. 42 steals last year would be a welcome addition to my team with the 30/30 chance with Kinsler. 114 runs and a .397 obp more than make up for the fact that he doesn’t hit for power and his RBI’s are low. I also feel that the other guy I had targeted will be picked next.

I may sound a little defensive with this pick, but I can be huge on tiers. I just see the dropoff at third being to big to not take Figgins since all of you guys took my other targets.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Prince Fielder, 1B
Rd 2 – Ian Kinsler, 2B

My thoughts: It was between Zimmerman and Figgins for me. I would’ve been fine with either as I could’ve used a top base stealer just as much as a legit run producer. This team has an excellent infield.

3.9 – Jimmy Rollins, SS – Philadelphia Phillies
I have a feeling that this pick is going to come off as a “homer” pick as I am a Phils fan. His 1st half of 2009 was a complete disaster and that is masking a really nice 2nd half for Rollins. In the 2nd half of 2009 he hit .295 with 15 HRS, 50 RBIs and 21 SBs (can I just times that by 2 for 2010!). Jimmy hit the same amount of FBs in the 1st and 2nd halves but more of his GBs turned into LDs. Jimmy posted the 2nd lowest K% of his career combined with the lowest BABIP at .253 (career avg. is .295). I am assuming the sub .300 OBP is a thing of the past while locking up 25 HR/40 SB potential in RD 3 from SS is valuable.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Joe Mauer, C
Rd 2 – Mark Reynolds, 3B

My thoughts: A lot of risk locked up in this team with three of the biggest question marks for 2010 in three rounds. Two are coming off of career years with everyone wondering how sustainable it is while the other has fallen from his MVP-caliber production leaving many wondering if he’ll get back to that previous level. It’s more risk that I’m comfortable with this early, but it could really pay off.

3.10 – Justin Morneau, 1B – Minnesota Twins
Nothing out of the ordinary here. Hoping for health but reports say he’ll be fine.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Tim Lincecum, SP
Rd 2 – Evan Longoria, 3B

My thoughts: As long as he will be fine, this is an absolute steal in the third round.

3.11 – Pablo Sandoval, 3B – San Francisco Giants
After watching my 3B picks disappear before my eyes, I’ll not gamble on waiting for the 4th round. Kung Fu Panda for me. He may well move to 1B but for now he’s 3B eligible.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Ryan Howard, 1B
Rd 2 – Jose Reyes, SS

My thoughts: When you look at what Sandoval did in 2009, this pick isn’t surprising especially given how 3Bs were going as the drafter noted.

3.12 – Brian Roberts, 2B – Baltimore Orioles
Sandoval was my pick. I was praying he’d fall that far. The last month of last season Roberts showed a good walk rate, an almost .400 OBP. He’s a 20/30 guy, and I pretty much have stolen bases wrapped up with a good amount of power left on the board.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Carl Crawford, OF
Rd 2 – Matt Holliday, OF

My thoughts: Excellent consolation prize after losing out on Sandoval. Roberts is an unsung guy, but he’s a great addition to any team.

3.13 – Adam Lind, OF – Toronto Blue Jays
And Roberts was mine! I can’t believe you just snagged him.

Lind just kept staring at me and the more I looked, the more I liked. He’ll be 26 years old in 2010 and coming off of a 93/35/114/.370OBP season with an even better 2H power-wise. The reversion back to a normal G/F ratio in ’09 over ’08 also gives me comfort in his future, as do the doubles that came with the HR. I didn’t want to wait too long for my first OF, either.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Rd 2 – Troy Tulowitzki, SS

My thoughts: One of the bigger surprises of 2009, but I think he’s for real giving this team three elite run producers with a little foundational speed from Tulow. Great group to start considering he’s picking 13th.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Mock Drafts, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

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