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Friday: 05.20.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 7 The Weekend

With interleague play firing up tonight, it throws an interesting wrench into matchup plays since the rules are going to be different for one team in each game.  That said, I would hope an American League pitcher isn’t completely thrown off of his game just because he has to bat a couple times and the DH shouldn’t obliterate a National League pitcher in a one game sample if he’s anywhere close to a worthwhile arm.

Let’s take a look at the weekend picks.

FRIDAY:

Erik Bedard (SEA @ SD) – It might be too late for you to pick him up, but I want to add him with Brad Penny and Ryan Vogelsong to the Friday picks.  I’m not sure why he wasn’t originally included.  He’s pitching well and gets a start in San Diego, it doesn’t add up much better than that.

SATURDAY:

Clayton Richard (SD v. SEA) – Can’t chase a win here even against the Mariners as the Padres have to face Michael Pineda so run scoring will be even tougher than usual for the Padres.  Richard is an ultimate matchup play to be used exclusively at home almost regardless of opponent.  He has excelled against Cincinnati and Philadelphia at home while getting a reprieve for a terrible outing against Pittsburgh where he allowed seven but just one earned.  He has a 1.71 ERA at home; 7.27 on the road.

Joel Pineiro (LAA v. ATL) – I will reiterate what I said when I recommended him for Monday: I wouldn’t mess with him too often in innings cap leagues because of his meager strikeout rate, but he is an overlooked asset with legitimate value in the right league type.  He turned in a quality outing against the A’s going seven allowing three, but striking out just three.  Atlanta has been good this year on the whole, but they’re toting a .654 OPS on the road (22nd-ranked).

SUNDAY:

Tim Stauffer (SD v. SEA) – Can’t chase a win here even against the Mariners as the Padres get to face Felix Hernandez so run scoring will be MUCH tougher than usual for the Padres.  He was toting a meager 4.5 K/9 in his first four outings, but has struck out 6 or 7 in his last five totaling 33 in 30 innings (9.9 K/9).  Combine that with his improved walk rate of 2.1 BB/9  and now he has a career-best 3.7 K/BB.  He has held most of his groundball gains from last year (55%) with a 52% rate which all adds up to a great skill set.  He could reasonably shave a sizeable chunk off of his 3.81 ERA going forward.  I would roster him immediately.

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS @ BAL) – His ownership rates are higher than most of the recommendations on Trolling the Wire, but there are still lower than they should be, at least in my opinion (70% or below across all three major outlets).  His strikeout rate in his first five starts was a remarkably disappointing 4.2 K/9, which was worrisome because strikeouts were a significant part of his value coming into the season.  In May he has struck out 21 in 18 innings across three starts bringing his season mark up to 6.6 and rising.  He has a great 2.1 walk rate pushing his strikeout-to-walk rate above 3.0.  He has a mediocre at best 4.13 ERA, in fact it’s below average, but his FIP is 2.67 thanks to a 59% LOB% that is 13% below the average.  With these skills, Zimmermann has a good chance to become an above average pitcher the rest of the way.

Rick Porcello (DET @ PIT) – He was slated for Tuesday, but rained out.  He is going Sunday so I’ll keep him as a recommendation especially since his draw improves getting the Pirates instead of the Blue Jays.  And in case you missed it, here is what I said about in Sunday’s piece: After allowing 10 runs in 10 innings in his first two starts, he has allowed just seven in the next 32 innings across five starts (1.99 ERA) with a passable 5.9 K/9.  More importantly, he has a 3.0 K/BB walking just seven.  His walk and groundball rates have held from last year while he has added more than a full strikeout per game to his rate.  A 3.65 xFIP and 3.76 FIP suggest that his 3.67 ERA is completely legitimate.  Buy with confidence.

Results for Week 7 and Week 8’s Monday-Friday picks coming up Sunday evening.

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Thursday: 05.19.2011

Prospect Spotlight: Jemile Weeks

Earlier this week I discussed the Oakland A’s and why they ought to consider moving Andrew Bailey if and when he comes back healthy and pitches like we are used to seeing.  They are at .500, just a game out of first powered almost exclusively by their great pitching, both starters and relievers.  Moving Bailey for the right bat would be an excellent upgrade to their lineup, but the 23rd-ranked offense (by runs) needs more than one move to make them a legitimate contender.

I mentioned that another move can be made from within the organization and I was referring specifically to second base prospect Jemile Weeks, brother of Rickie Weeks.  The 2008 first round pick out of the University of Miami has really struggled to stay healthy as a pro which has slowed his progress a bit, but he has been healthy so far this year showing why he was a first round pick and leading to his best season yet 29 games in.

Hip and leg issues have limited to just 77 and 80  games in his two full seasons as a professional.  When he is on the field, he shows an all-around game including speed, discipline, a quick bat and more power than you would expect from someone who is 5’9 and 160 pounds.  His stolen base numbers don’t suggest massive speed, but that is certainly tied to the hip and leg issues.

His .325/.418/.467 line includes 10 extra base hits and 18 RBIs from the leadoff spot.  I asked Ben Badler from BaseballAmerica.comwhat he thought of this production from Weeks and he said it’s “what he’s capable of when healthy.  [He] has to show he can stay that way still.”

Weeks at AFL 2009 (Photo courtesy of Amanda Rykoff)

His ceiling doesn’t quite have the near-30 home run power like his brother, but in exchange for that he shouldn’t have the same strikeout issues that does Rickie does which often drain his batting average.  Badler and colleagues compared Weeks to Ray Durham in this year’s handbook and Durham was a mid-teens home run hitter and a career .277 hitter so that fits the trade of power for batting average as compared to Rickie.

It’s only 29 games of elite production, but it’s health not talent with him so there shouldn’t be a fear that the bottom will fall out on his stat line.  He wouldn’t even need to be playing this well to merit a call up when you consider the “production” the A’s are getting at second base right now.  Mark Ellis has a gawd-awful .204/.229/.279(!!!) line in 147 at-bats with no home runs, 11 RBIs and 4 stolen bases.  He has had some pretty decent years in the past and he was never at risk of losing his job because he was an elite defender.  Maybe he is hiding an injury because he looks completely lost at the dish.

His defense is still strong, but the bat is just so bad that no amount of quality defense can offset the hit their lineup is taking primarily because Ellis isn’t the only gaping hole in their set of nine.  And at 34, he isn’t going to be a major part of their future so it is time to get the 24-year old up and into the lineup.  Weeks’ defense isn’t up to Ellis’ caliber, but it’s passable especially if he is contributing with the bat.  I asked Adam Foster of ProjectProspect.com what he thought of Weeks and he said, “[He] is off to a hot start.  I think he’ll cool off a bit, but if the A’s want an offensive upgrade at 2B, he is certainly an option.”

If you have an open bench spot, I would definitely speculate on Weeks in an AL-Only league and possibly in deeper mixed leagues if I really needed a middle infield boost in my lineup.  The A’s certainly do so they shouldn’t hold Weeks back too much longer as they are clearly contenders in that AL West with their ridiculous pitching.  A lot of times these call ups happen without warning so if you grab him early, he will be very cheap which is also good insurance because if it doesn’t work out for some reason then you can cut him with minimal damage to your FAAB budget.

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Wednesday: 05.18.2011

We’re Going Streaking!

Carlos Pena is in the midst of one of his famous Pena Power Pushes with five home runs in his last 12 games.  He has a .368/.490/.789 line during the stretch with 9 R, 11 RBI and 10 BB.  I’m sure many of his fantasy league owners didn’t get all of or any of this stretch as they were frustrated by the .157/.286/.171 line prior to the run.

Of course if you know anything about Pena then you know you have to sit through these kind of slumps so if you draft him then the onus is on you to practice extreme levels of patience.  Since emerging as a prolific and consistent power hitter in 2007, he has been possibly the streakiest home run hitter in the game.

  • He had 10 streaks of 10+ games without a home run from 2007-2010:
    • 10 – 3 times
    • 11 – 2 times
    • 12 – 2 times
    • 13 – 1 time
    • 18 – 1 time
    • 19 – 1 time
  • He had 12 streaks of 5+ home runs where he hit at least one every other game:
    • 5 in 6 games
    • 5 in 10 games
    • 5 in 11 games
    • 6 in 5 games
    • 6 in 8 games
    • 6 in 10 games
    • 6 in 10 games (followed by an 18-game cold streak, his longest of ’08)
    • 6 in 11 games
    • 7 in 6 games
    • 7 in 13 games (followed by an 11-game cold streak, his longest of ’09)
    • 7 in 13 games (preceded by a 13-game cold streak, his longest of ’07)
    • 9 in 11 games

The 21-game homer-less streak he started this season with is his longest since his rise to prominence, but it was also injury-related as he was dealing with a thumb injury so that only compounded things for a guy who is naturally inconsistent.  Morale of the story: if you are willing to take the risk of drafting him, set it and forget it.  Secondary morale: NEVER draft him in a H2H week.  He will kill you three weeks at a time before finally winning one by himself.

—

Carl Crawford is hitting .290 in 62 May at-bats notching a hit in 13 of his 15 games.  There hasn’t really been much else yet (2 SB, 4 RBI, 7 R), but considering the fact that he hit .155 for entire month of April his owners will take any glimmer of hope that their first round (or second round at latest) pick is ready to perform like one.

—

Drew Stubbs has reached base in his last 10 games posting a very strong .349/.440/.535 with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 SB, 7 BB and 9 R in 43 at-bats.  He was a target sleeper for many, namely Matthew Berry of ESPN and Cory Schwartz of MLB.com, being tabbed as potentially this year’s Carlos Gonzalez.  So far he has lived up to the billing pacing for a season of .279 batting average with 27 home runs, 77 RBIs, 123 runs scored and 54 stolen bases which would no doubt make him one of the best fantasy players in all of baseball.  He is currently rated 5th on ESPN’s Player Rater and checks in 8th overall in Yahoo!’s ranking.

—

Before hitting the disabled list with an injury, Victor Martinez had a .250/.292/.417 line and hadn’t hit a home run in 12 games as the Tigers were an underwhelming 8-9.  He has torched the place since coming back from injury hitting .415/.489/.683 with 7 XBH (including 2 HR), 14 RBI, 9 R and 6 BB in 41 at-bats.  His surge places him 3rd among catchers on ESPN’s Player Rater behind teammate Alex Avila.

—

Martin Prado has reached base in 20 straight games dating back to April 26th including hits in 19 of them.  He was hitting .240 before the run, but going .360/.394/.551 w/4 HR, 17 RBI, 13 R, 5 BB, 3 CS in 89 AB has brought him to .296/.338/.450 which is just a tick below his career marks while his 117 OPS+ is right in line with his career 116 given the down hitting environment of 2011.

—

Perhaps Alberto Callaspo is the oasis you are looking for in the third base wasteland.  It was pretty weak before the season started and a rash of injuries might have taken it past shortstop as the worst fantasy position on the diamond.  He is available in a lot of leagues, too: CBS: 60%, ESPN: 49%, Y!: 32%.  In his last 12 games he is hitting .391/.404/.522 w/11 RBI.  Only 2 R and 0 HR & 0 SB, but again, it’s awful at third base so beggars can’t be choosy.  He is hitting .309 on the season and on pace for 75 RBI.

—

Adrian Gonzalez is positively destroying the competition in his last 10 games to the tune of a .386/.429/.932(!) line with 7 HR, 16 RBI and 12 R in 44 at-bats.  He was hitting .250 exactly a month ago; he is hitting .327 now.

—

Rajai Davis has surged since returning from injury with 10 stolen bases and 10 runs scored in 15 games.

—

Mike Trout is living up to the prospect hype following his 2010 breakout, especially in his last 10 games: .357/.417/.643 with 2 HR, 5 RBI, 7 R, 2 SB, 5 BB in 42 AB.  Of course, he has been raking all year long hitting .315/.400/.569 with 6 HR, 17 XBH, 17 RBI, 17 BB so he is almost making it difficult on himself to have a stretch that actually stands out.

—

The Kansas City Royals have already called up two of their best prospects in Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy, who makes his major league debut on Wednesday night.  Could Mike Moustakas be next?  There isn’t quite the natural opening that there was for both Hosmer and Duffy as Mike Aviles is playing well and even if you were to suggest moving him to second base, they still have Wilson Betemit.  That hasn’t stopped Mous from letting his bat make a bid for a call up as he has posted a .394/.474/.909 line in his last nine games with 9 XBH (4 HR), 12 RBI, 10 R, 1 SB, 5 BB and just 3 K (24 in his other 26 games) in 33 at-bats.  Man, perhaps even Dayton Moore can’t mess this up.  What a ridiculous crop of talent.

—

Dustin Ackley is also making a strong bid to get called up, but unlike with Moustakas in KC, the Mariners can definitely use his bat… and how.  Ackley is white-hot in his last 10 going .463/.540/.707 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 10 R, 8 BB, 5 K in 41 AB.  During the streak he has one 0-fer and seven multi-hit games.  His season line is now up to .280/.399(!)/.445.  He has 33 walks against just 25 strikeouts.  Given their anemic offense and his brilliant control of the strike zone, it might be time to speculate on Ackley in leagues where he is available and would be useful (this wouldn’t include 10 team mixed leagues) such as any AL-Only league and deeper mixed leagues with a bench.  I would definitely speculate in any OBP league that fits these size criteria because at the very least he will draw walks as soon as he reaches the bigs.

Next time, I will look at some pitchers in the midst of a hot streaks.

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Wednesday: 05.18.2011

Mazzaro’d

By now you are familiar with the disastrous outing that Kansas City Royals pitcher Vin Mazzaro suffered through last night.  He threw 2.3 of the worst innings in baseball history yielding a jaw-dropping 14 runs on 11 hits and three walks.  Anyone that plays fantasy baseball had one thought once they saw the line: “Holy crap, who has him??” and then they scurried off to their league’s website to see if anyone took the beating.  Of the AL-only and mixed leagues I am in, only one team had him rostered and he was on the reserve roster, thankfully for them.

But what if he wasn’t?  What would it feel like to be Mazzaro’d?  It sure as hell wouldn’t have been good, but you don’t need me to tell you that.  Let’s take a look at how it would’ve affected the 13 teams in my 5×5 mixed league:

Yikes, that is horrible.  On average it did 0.30 points of damage to an ERA with just under 400 innings.  Coincidentally, my team is the one that took biggest hit (Team 1) thanks to my league low in innings of 329.  I didn’t include the WHIP damage because it was exactly the same for 12 of the 13 teams at 0.03.  Team 13 with its huge innings cushion would have suffered a hit of 0.02 to its WHIP had it been Mazzaro’d.

After seeing the average of 0.30 ERA damage, I wondered how many scoreless innings each team would need to get back to their starting ERA pre-Mazzarofication.

On average the teams in my league would need about three and a half straight shutouts to get de-Mazzaro’d.  There is no way you would get that in a row immediately after this beating, but even spreading it over the remainder of the season, you would need some fanciful pitching to get out from under that microburst of destruction.

We have seen the damage that getting Mazzaro’d does to the whole numbers on the ERA and WHIP, but what kind of hit would a team have taken to their point total?

A pretty wide range of damage done depending on team.  One team would have suffered no wholesale damage to their point total from the Mazzaroing.  That is kind of incredible.  The damage is still done the ERA and WHIP, though, it is just that the placement in the standings for that team was fortuitous enough not to cause any immediate harm.  Team 11, doing pretty well with 18 points between the two categories, would have suffered a major hit losing six points in the two categories.  Can you imagine losing six points in two categories in a single night on May 17th?  Most league standings are stratified enough that you wouldn’t see that kind of movement this late barring some crazy stuff like a Mazzarolation.

So was anyone Mazzaro’d in your leagues?  If so, how much did it sting them?  How many points did they lose that night and did they instantly cut Mazzaro even before the next transaction period?  Let me know in the comments or on Twitter (@sporer).

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Tuesday: 05.17.2011

On Andrew Bailey

 catbird seat

–noun (Informal)

an advantageous situation or condition:

His appointment as acting dean put him in the catbird seat.

A team that is just a game over .500, one game out of first place and in third place in their division isn’t often said to be in the catbird seat, but you could make a case that the Oakland A’s are in fact there.  The A’s have the best pitching in all of baseball when measured by ERA (2.75) and the best in the AL when measured by FIP (3.19) and xFIP (3.49).  Their bullpen ranks very well, too, checking in third and fifth in baseball by ERA and FIP and tied for 14th in xFIP.  The best part about their pitching is that they have the 2nd-most innings pitched in baseball, but their bullpen has the second fewest (by a third of an inning to Philly).

Their advantageous situation comes in the fact that they are succeeding this much despite their ace closer, Andrew Bailey, not having logged a single inning this year.  In fact the fill-in closer, Brian Fuentes, has been one of their worst relievers to date (4.19 ERA, modest 7.0 K/9).  Their bullpen is in for significant improvement when Bailey returns which is expected at the end of May.  He slots in at closer and everyone else moves down a peg (or out in Craig Breslow‘s case as he is the worst reliever to date statistically speaking).

But what if he doesn’t return?  Bailey has hardly been the bastion of health during his three year career and while the results when in have been excellent, he has three different DL stints for three different parts of his body (back, right elbow, right forearm) making him a constant risk.  The prospect of using Fuentes as their closer for the whole season is probably unsettling for the Athletics’ brass.  He has a history of home run issues which is about the worst thing for a closer.

He has avoided them this year with a 0.5 HR/9, but that’s thanks to a 3.3% HR/FB rate which is highly unlikely to stick considering he has a 55% flyball rate.  The home ballpark definitely masks some of it, but I doubt the park will cover him ALL year.  He has already notched three losses, a blown save-win and an ugly save where he allowed two hits and a run (a Dirty Fuentes if you will–full credit to Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz of ESPN).  And that is with just the one home run on his record.  As that HR/FB rate regresses to the mean, it could get really dirty.

Enter the catbird seat.  Their AAA closer in Sacramento is a name you might be familiar with, Joey Devine.  He makes Bailey look like Cal Ripken Jr. with an injury track record longer than Paris Hilton’s STD test results.  But he is healthy right now and mowing down the competition with 12 shutout innings during which he has struck out 17, walked one and allowed just four hits notching three saves and three wins.

If you will recall, the last time he pitched in the majors was 2008 for the A’s and he was excellent in 45.7 innings.  He had a miniscule 0.59 ERA, microscopic 0.83 WHIP and elite-level 3.3 K/BB rate powered by his 9.7 K/9.  He is a major talent who could definitely wrest the closer’s role away from Fuentes should Bailey miss more time than expected.  Or his & Bailey’s health and performance could facilitate a trade for the A’s to shore up their woeful lineup.

It is unlikely that they could flip Devine for a game-changing piece, but a healthy Bailey (who is only signed through 2011 according to Cots combined with the fact that the Billy Beane brass has never been tied singling out a closer and making him the unquestioned guy in the role) could probably net a useful bat especially as several wannabe contenders have a hole (or five) in their bullpen (Reds, Angels, Cardinals, Rockies, Brewers, both Sox, Rangers, Dodgers and Tigers all rate 16th or worse in bullpen ERA).  And six of those teams (Cardinals, Reds, Yankees, Rangers, Tigers, Red Sox) are among the top 10 in runs scored adding to the potential for a trade fit.

The Reds look like a strong fit because they have an aging (36) closer in Francisco Cordero whose strikeout rate is dwindling rapidly (12.2 K/9 in 2007 down every year to 6.1 this year) and their heir apparent, Aroldis Chapman, would walk Vladimir Guerrero… repeatedly.  Couple that with their abundance of bats with no place to play, namely Chris Heisey, and trading seems to fit.

In addition to Heisey, the Reds also have Fred Lewis and Jonny Gomes (though he is a platoon player on the short end as righties kill him) at the major league level.  But if they wanted to keep Heisey and the A’s had no interest in Lewis or Gomes (which would be smart), their AAA team has two strong candidates the A’s would be wise to covet: Yonder Alonso and Juan Francisco.

Alonso is a first baseman they are trying at left field simply because he is blocked by the reigning MVP Joey Votto, but their best deployment of him is probably in a trade.  He is carrying a .331 average .916 OPS in 130 at-bats for AAA-Louisville and for his career he has nearly 600 plate appearances of .848 OPS at AAA suggesting he is ready for .

I appreciate Daric Barton’s ability to take a walk as much as the next guy, but a team can’t compete with a  .293 SLG out of their first baseman.  That’s so disgustingly bad that I’m sure 64% of you will go check his stats just to make sure it’s not a misprint.  The A’s could keep Alonso in the outfield, but that would put him in Josh Willingham’s spot or require moving Willingham to rightfield.  You can’t take his bat out of the lineup, though, because his .405 SLG actually qualifies as a power bat in the Oakland lineup.  I guess they could put Alonso in left and then Willingham in for Barton (Willingham has played 3 games at 1B.  Letting him learn on the fly would still be better than having to suffer Barton’s bat even though Barton is a plus defender), but that would only be an option if they decided that Alonso was a major value-add in left.  I can’t speak to his defense in the outfield at all.

Francisco is primarily a third baseman which just so happens to be another power position from which the A’s are getting ZERO power.  Kevin Kouzmanoff has an OPS (.591) that you would like to see as a SLG from one of (if not more) of your power positions of 1B, 3B, LF and RF.  His .351 SLG would make a nice OBP for crying out loud.  Francisco is a 24-year old top 10 prospect in their organization from whom big things are expected, but even the .295/.356/.400 production from his 59-game sample in the majors the last three years would be better than anything Kouz can deliver at this point.

The Reds also have a multi-positional Todd Frazier in the midst of a breakout at age 25 on their AAA team so the options run deep.  With as many holes as they have in their lineup, a singular trade won’t completely turn around Oakland’s offense, but it would be a big step in the right direction.  Plus they are doing pretty well overall despite their scrub lineup so maybe one bat would make a world of difference.  They have also some options on their own AAA team that could boost the lineup.  I’ll cover that at a later date.

Of course before any of this Bailey trade talk can come to fruition, he needs to come back and prove his health as well as show the kind of excellence we have seen from him in the past two years.  If he doesn’t, the A’s won’t have as much leeway to trade bullpen arms for help in their lineup, but with Devine surging and a major league bullpen that has been one of the best in baseball so far, they don’t need Bailey to return to succeed.  They are in a strong position either way, but obviously Bailey returning to greatness is the ideal scenario for them to maximize their time in the catbird seat.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Statistical Analysis, Team Specific, Trade Deadline | 2 Comments »

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Monday: 05.16.2011

Sunday Twidbits: May 15th

On the Sunday before last, I started something called MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Starting with yesterday’s, I will post each week’s Twidbits here at paulsporer.com for anybody who misses them on Sunday and just for a quick and easy reference later on instead of having to scroll through my feed days later.  They are grouped by the Sunday game matchups.

KC – Mike Montgomery was thrashed on Sat – 11 R (8 ER) in 4.3; 25 BB in 42 IP

Det – Brad Penny has 1 BB in last 20 IP; career high 54% GB in ’11

Sea – Brandon League‘s last four ERA has gone from 2.08 to 7.31 3: IP, 10 ER

Cle – Cleveland scored a lg high 141 R in Apr (5.4/gm). Their OPS is down from .791 to .670 in May & they are scoring 3.6 R/G. Easy w/Oct. plans.

StL – Chris Carpenter has allowed 40 H in last 4 starts; Josh Johnson has allowed 32 in 8 starts

StL 2 – Albert Pujols is hitting .302 w/6 HR and 20 RBI in the last calendar month

Cin – The Reds C combo (Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan) has 8 HR, 27 RBI & .321/.373/.526 line; hands down the best backstop production in baseball.

Cin 2 – Drew Stubbs has been Matt Kemp-lite: R 30/23, HR 7 ea., RBI 20/25, SB 13/12, AVG .276/.336

Phi  – Buoyed by a return in his BABIP, Jimmy Rollins is hitting .279 along w/a career high .362 OBP, but last yr’s power outage remains (.377 SLG)

Atl – Martin Prado has 8th-most RBI in baseball (27); far & away the most for a leadoff hitter (Brian Roberts, 19)

Flo – Florida’s Gaby/LoMo 4-5 combo is hitting .332/.418/.572 w/12 HR, 37 RBI & 32 R even w/LoMo playing just 17 G so far.

Was – Jayson Werth‘s .232 AVG is the best qualifying AVG on Wash. Only one Nats hitter w/80 AB holds an OPS over .752 (Nix, .892).

Bal – SSS caveats, but JJ Hardy has two 6 G set this yr. .200/.294/.400 in his 1st, then .435/.480/.696 since returning. A must-add at thin SS.

TB – Ben Zobrist only has 1 HR, 2 RBI since his crazy DH on Apr 28th, but he’s hitting .360/.468/.540 w/6 2B and 11 BB.

NYM – Carlos Beltran has matched or exceeded performance from ’10 in 64 G playing just 37 so far in ’11. Same R, 2 more 2B, 1 more HR, 3 fewer RBI

NYM 2 – Most importantly, Beltran’s .294/.384/.587 line is well above last year’s .255/.341/.427 line.

Hou – After four 6 IP starts (Apr 9-26), Bud Norris has gone 7+ in last 3 in an effort to keep his fate away from NL’s worst ‘pen (5.25 ERA).

Pit – Jose Tabata has 21 walks in 147 PA (14.1%) & is just 7 away from ’10 mark of 28 in 441 PA. 45 SB pace is legit as AVG will rise soon, too.

Mil – Ryan Braun is pulling out of 15-gm minislump (.193)-hitting .389/.522/1.056 w/2 HR, 10 RBI & 6 R in last 5 gm.

Tor – Jose Bautista has 7 HR in last 30 AB; .400/.486/1.167 w/11 RBI, 9 R… Bondsian treatment upcoming? TOR #4s have .734 OPS, 20th in MLB

Tor 2 – More Bautista, his .868 *SLG* would be the 17th best *OPS* in the AL. :drool: He’s prob <$5 keeper in most lgs.

Min – Minnesota’s .617 OPS is easily a league worst; 6 batters w/75+ PA have better *SLG* (Bautista, Berkman, Morrison, Sizemore, R.Hernandez & Granderson). Joyce’s .615 is close.

SF – Just two healthy regulars (Sandoval on DL) w/70+ PA have an OBP above .316 (Posey .347, Burrell .350).  Alas, elite pitching staff has propelled them atop tough division (-2 run diff.)

Chc – Kosuke Fukudome‘s trend of hot April followed by precipitous drop in May is holding to form. His OPS has drop .130 pts; he’s empty OBP.

LAA – Scioscia has split time equally b/w Hank Conger (.788 OPS) & Jeff Mathis (.499 OPS) & while it’s sub-optimal, it’s better than expected.

Tex – Adrian Beltre‘s power is intact w/same ISO as ’10 (.233), but disgustingly low .218 BABIP is holding his AVG to .252; target for AVG upside.

SD – Will Venable on pace for 45 SB, but empty otherwise. Rise in MLB SB (0.67/G v. 0.61 in ’10) makes him less valuable, even w/high pace.

Col – Seth Smith hitting .250 v. LHP (up from ugly .154 clip in 55 PA last yr), but he’s still best deployed in daily lgs v. RH starters.

Chw – Alexei Ramirez is once again heating up after an ugly April w/.790 OPS in May. Career .840 OPS in June (.820)/July (.860)… buy immediately.

Oak – Batting 3rd often Conor Jackson may chase down a line near his 06-08 peak, maybe: .290, 10 HR-65 R-65 RBI-12 SB. *Cheap* AL-only usefulness.

Ari – Ugly .233 BABIP is saddling Chris Young w/.219 AVG & masking improved K rate & career-best ISO. Regression will improve SB opp; buy now.

LAD – Apart from Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier, the rest of the Dodgers are hitting .230/.282/.320. They’re tied w/Bautista w/16 HRs in 1057 AB!!!

Bos – A month ago Adrian Gonzalez was hitting .244 w/1 HR & 7 RBI; since then .357 w/8 HR & 27 RBI, leads AL in RBI & on pace for 36 HR.

NYY – Despite Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada & Nick Swisher being useless, NYY is pacing the lg w/859 RS (41 more than BOS).

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Sunday: 05.15.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 7 Monday-Friday

The week started off brilliantly with a pair of shutout performances from Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson.  In fact through Tuesday, which included three starters for the first time on any given day, the five starters posted a 2.09 ERA across 34 innings.  Then the week kind of came unhinged.  Chris Narveson and Ryan Dempster delivered strong starts, but four flameouts and three rainouts derailed what was lining up to be a great week.

I told y’all I felt dirty recommending a no strikeout guy like Kevin Correia.  I should’ve just stuck to the original plan with Jake Arrieta.  The rainouts have been the real killers, giving those of us employing this strategy less margin for error and fewer chances for a gem.

The results to date have been pretty strong, though and the three hold listers who have emerged are proving to be legitimate assets worth relying on regardless of matchup and venue.  No one joining the list this week, but let’s look at this week’s options for spot starts.

MONDAY:

Edwin Jackson (CHW v. TEX) – I still believe.  Looking through his eight start gamelog, he really has just the two poor starts at Detroit and New York.  The Rangers are a challenge, but I don’t think Jackson’s is a flimsy skill set that needs to be protected against anything but the weakest of opponents.  He still has high strikeout potential meanwhile his control has held strong at 3.4 BB/9.

Joel Pineiro (LAA @ OAK) – The ERA isn’t going to hold at 1.33, but his pinpoint control, hyper-groundball profile can deliver a 3.50-3.75 ERA, seven innings at a time.  I wouldn’t mess with him too often in innings cap leagues because of his meager strikeout rate, but he is an overlooked asset with legitimate value in the right league type.

TUESDAY:

Rick Porcello (DET v. TOR) – He’d better just throw four wide to Jose Bautista and move on.  After allowing 10 runs in 10 innings in his first two starts, he has allowed just seven in the next 32 innings across five starts (1.99 ERA) with a passable 5.9 K/9.  More importantly, he has a 3.0 K/BB walking just seven.  His walk and groundball rates have held from last year while he has added more than a full strikeout per game to his rate.  A 3.65 xFIP and 3.76 FIP suggest that his 3.67 ERA is completely legitimate.  Buy with confidence.

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS v. PIT) – His ownership rates are a lot lower than I expected, including just 70% at CBS, so he gets a nod this week, though I suspect his 11 K outing will pump his rates back up.  I recommend picking up and holding him where available as his strikeout ability is starting to shine through after a bit of a lull to start the season.  He is still coming off of a major injury so I would expect him to continue getting better as the season wears on.  He has a 3.44 ERA in 18 innings over three starts in May with 21 strikeouts and six walks.  Buy NOW!

WEDNESDAY:

Jason Vargas (SEA v. MIN) – Vargas has a somewhat Porcellian profile with his moderate strikeout rate and big time control, but he lags behind a bit in groundball rate (43% to Porcello’s 49%).  Vargas has a very favorable home park and strong defense supporting him, too.  Throw in a matchup against the only offense as bad as or perhaps worse than Seattle’s and it is a nice opportunity to start him.

Bartolo Colon (NYY @ BAL) – He is a borderline Hold List candidate with an excellent 8.5 strikeout rate and even more appealing 4.1 K/BB rate, but the 1.5 HR/9 is a bit worrisome.  His LOB% rate at 77% is bit higher than average (72%) and if that comes down it could be in the form of three-run homers.  That said, I am happy to trust him start to start right as the 38-year old looks like a completely new man (or man and a half… didn’t think I’d get a fat joke in, didjya?).

THURSDAY:

Tyson Ross (OAK v. MIN) – After a shaky first start (3 ER in 4.3 IP), he really settled in with a 1.69 ERA in the four starts since.  Oddly enough the first start was against the easiest competition (Mariners) while the four since have come against a range of competition, all reasonably viable (Angels, Indians, Royals and White Sox).  The performance has been supported by a 3.6 K/BB which has included a usable 6.0 K/9.

Chris Narveson (MIL @ SD) – Narveson has served us well multiple times this year and now he gets a trip to San Diego.  Sign me up.

FRIDAY:

Brad Penny (DET @ PIT) – Penny has 1 BB in last 20 IP and he’s carrying a career high 54% GB thus far.  He’s another super-low strikeout guy (and he’s facing the one I regretted trusting last time in Correia), but the difference is that I have seen every single one of Penny’s starts and I had only seen Correia throw once this year.  All that really means is I can more confidently back him as I have seen why he is succeeding in spite of the strikeouts.  It still isn’t a profile I love by any stretch, but he is getting the job done despite the lack of whiffs.  I wouldn’t use Penny, even for a spot start, in an innings cap or K/9 league, but he is worth trotting out against a weak opponent everywhere else.

Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. OAK) – The guy hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 before this year yet he is toting a 2.36 ERA 27 innings into his comeback.  I guess it’s more of a “come” since he isn’t really coming back to anything having never really enjoyed much success in the early 2000s.  It’s a small sample, but the skills profile (8.1 K/9, 3.0 K/BB) definitely supports his early success.  He won’t maintain his 83% LOB% or .240 BABIP, but that just means he won’t be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher.  It doesn’t mean he can’t be a sub-4.00 pitcher.

Weekend picks later this week…

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 05.13.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 6 The Weekend

Is it just me or does it feel like there is a significant (5+ innings) no-hit bid nightly lately?  Maybe I can pluck some of those for Trolling the Wire and then if one of them happens to go the distance without allowing a hit then maybe we’d have a trade asset on our hands.  It would probably have to be someone on the cusp of the hold list.

Heck, Francisco Liriano is a “name” guy and I was no more interested in him after his no-no than before.  I offered advice to several tweeters and emailers not to take deals for Liriano post no-no.  The Tuesday evening before he was set to pitch against my Tigers, I told my softball team in no uncertain words that he sucks.

“Don’t let a no-hitter fool you into believing he’s good,” I told them, “it takes more luck than skill to complete the feat especially against a lineup running as ineptly as the White Sox have been this year.”  Liriano made me look smart by tanking and failing to make it through four innings.  It doesn’t just go for Liriano, though.

If you didn’t believe in a pitcher’s skill and then he goes out and throws a no-hitter, nothing in his skill has really changed so don’t let a statistically oddity fool you.  You should never really let any one game influence you too much one way or another, but sometimes the with all the hoopla that goes into a no-hitter, it is easy to fall victim.  Same thing goes for cycles.  When you really think about, cycles are a neat little thing, but there is nothing inherently great about them.

Let’s find our no-hit pitchers for the weekend:

SATURDAY:

Alex White (CLE v. SEA) – The rookie righty has captured some of Cleveland’s early season magic for himself with two solid starts to kick off his career.  With 10 strikeouts in 12 innings and a 53% groundball rate, he is building a profile to believe in going forward.  Make no mistake, though, this pick has a lot to do with his opponent.  The Mariners have taken their .656 April OPS and made it worse posting a vomit-inducing, league-worst .549 mark in May thus far.  White’s 95% LOB% won’t last, but Seattle might not get anybody on to even test the fluky rate.

Chris Narveson (MIL v. PIT) – Anyone perusing their league’s wavier wire might be wont to skip over Narveson as soon as they see the 4.38 ERA.  In this pitching environment we’re dealing with right now, an owner may see him as run-of-the-mill junk.  A deeper look at his gamelog shows that the ERA is pumped by one bad start.  His April 25th outing where he allowed seven run in 2.3 innings or 37% of his earned runs.  His ERA in the other six starts is 2.94.  You can’t pick and choose which stats you want when playing fantasy baseball, but it does give a clearer picture of the pitcher to look game-by-game.  Against a weak opponent, I’m very interested in a guy who is striking out nearly a batter an inning (8.5 K/9) and walking just three per game.

SUNDAY:

Kevin Correia (PIT @ MIL) – For as poor as Seattle is running, Milwaukee isn’t far behind with a team .566 OPS in May giving Correia a chance to keep his impressive, yet improbable, run going.  I feel dirty  just recommending someone with a sub-4.0 K/9, but he’s walking fewer than two per game and his groundball rate is over 50% on the year so there are some worthwhile skills within the profile.  The Brewers have the third most strikeouts in the NL in May so maybe Correia can up his rate past four.

A lot of big arms are going on Sunday and the rest are unappealing so I’ll stick with the one pick.

Results for Week 6 and Week 7’s Monday-Friday picks coming up Sunday evening.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Thursday: 05.12.2011

The Death of “Buying Low”, Part 2

Continuing on the Death of Buying “Low” theme from Tuesday, today I will look at a group of pitchers I think you should buy in on, even if you aren’t able to get a discount for their early season struggles.  For those who didn’t read the first piece, what I am looking at is some of the better players (guys owned in just about all formats) who are currently struggling.

When talks of their struggles come up, you will invariably hear the phrase “buy low” thrown out as if you can just bamboozle an owner into selling him for 50 cents on the dollar.  I don’t really believe this is possible, at least not very often.  Sure, there will be the one off trade where you can get someone to send you an established player who is struggling at least than 1:1 value, but by and large owners aren’t going to give up on their top picks without getting fair value in return.

So instead I am recommending guys to buy in on at market value despite their slow starts.  Don’t overreact to six weeks of baseball just because they run counter to years of proven performance or counter to the expectations you had when you paid a significant price for the player back in March.

If I had done this piece right when I was thinking of the idea a few weeks back, my #1 pitching candidate would have been Daniel Hudson.  His ERA was near 6.00 on April 21st, but he had struck out 26 in 24 innings and his stuff still looked sharp in the two starts of his (out of four) that I watched.

Now he’s completely dialed in and a shining example of what I am talking about.  He has allowed just six runs in his last three starts totaling 20 innings and he’s allowed just a run through six of his current start against San Francisco which is in progress.  He isn’t necessarily a star, but his cost was significant in most leagues so dumping him would have been taking a loss early in the season.

Some guys you can still buy in on and get their goodness going forward include:

Ryan Dempster (1-4, 7.20 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 38 K, 18 BB in 45 IP) – He is being obliterated by home runs (2.0 HR/9) having allowed 10 so far and doing a fair amount of the damage on his ERA which is 2nd-worst among qualified starters in all of baseball (John Lackey, 8.01).  But looking at the composite profile, his 7.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 aren’t too far removed from his marks over the last three years during which he has become a reliable 200-inning workhorse (8.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9).  Also throw in that Dempster is starting to turn the corner already allowing just three runs in his last 14 innings striking out nine, but walking just two.  Invest with confidence.

Yovani Gallardo (3-2, 5.11 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 36 K, 21 BB in 49 IP) – The strikeout rate is down three per game which can be alarming, but it’s tied heavily to three of his eight starts where he went nine and struck out two, went five and struck out three and then again went five and struck out two.  In the other starts, he has 29 strikeouts in 30 innings.  It is selective to sift through things start by start, but I think it’s warranted here as it shows that there isn’t an epidemic with Gallardo’s strikeouts.  Another reason not to be concerned is that his velocity remains essentially intact.  His fastball is 92.1 against 92.6 last year.  He’s going to be fine.

Brandon Morrow (1-2, 4.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 29 K, 10 BB in 21 IP) – One of my favorites coming into the year, Morrow didn’t even get started until April 23rd as the Blue Jays tend to play it very cautiously with him when it comes to potential injuries.  He was actually off to a nice start in his first three outings toting a 3.06 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 18 innings, but then he ran into the Tigers who knocked him around for five earned in three and a third innings pushing his ERA to 4.71.  See how one outing can skew things in a small sample.  His strikeout rate has been dynamite which is the main reason you got him.  His high ceiling is merely a benefit to having him on your team.  There is no reason to look at that ERA and think you should be concerned.  If anything, his missing the first couple of weeks could prove beneficial as he now might avoid being shutdown and help you down the stretch.

Ted Lilly (3-3, 4.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 29 K, 9 BB in 44 IP) – The strikeouts are down a bit from 7.7 K/9 last year to 5.9, but in the grand scheme that is hardly alarming.  Meanwhile his skills actually portend a stronger ERA than last year with his FIP down from 4.27 last year to 4.14 this year.  He is suffering from the worst BABIP of his career at .326 and while that will come down, it might not plummet all the way to his .273 career mark or to the .259 average from the last three years and that is because he is generating groundballs at a 37% clip, his highest mark since 2006.  If you need a stable, but not game-changing, pitcher with some strikeout upside, target Lilly.

John Danks (0-6, 4.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 40 K, 16 BB in 52 IP) – The 0-6 W-L record makes him look much worse than he has been, but he is someone I would target without fear.  Like Lilly, he is being punished by an abnormal BABIP (.327 as opposed to .267 and .274 marks the last two years), but unlike Lilly there is no discernible skill change to explain the difference meaning there is reason to believe it will regress.  Meanwhile, three year bests in his strikeout and walk rates also suggest positive things for Danks in the near future.  Buy.

Chris Carpenter (1-2, 4.32 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 37 K, 15 BB in 50 IP) – I asked the Cardinals’ MLB.com beat reporter, Matthew Leach (@MatthewHLeach) about Carpenter yesterday as I was preparing a trade for him and he said, “iffy command worries me a lot less than iffy stuff would; more fixable.”  There’s no positive way to spin three straight double-digit hits allowed games by Carp (10-10-13), but some of it is no doubt a concern I expressed about the Cards this preseason which is that they downgraded their SS defense significantly moving from Brendan Ryan to Ryan Theriot.  Carpenter’s spike in BABIP to .327, his worst mark since 1999, show the effects early on.  But going back to Leach’s comment, the stuff is fine and he is just missing some spots allowing more balls in play for a lesser defense to try and field.  He’s a savvy vet who can and I’m betting will make adjustments to improve.

There are no doubt more examples for batters and pitchers, I’ve just highlighted a handful of each for you.  The main point to take away is that you shouldn’t balk on acquiring a struggling guy you believe in just because the owner your trading with might not give you a discount based on six weeks of play.

You probably wouldn’t sell at a discount based on six weeks, so don’t expect others to do it.  Or at least don’t be surprised if they don’t and be prepared to up your offer to something more suitable. Be careful too that if you lowball too far down the ladder, you might put off your trade partner completely.

Remember, interest in a player alone is enough to tell your trade partner that you think he can help your team.  Why else would you trade for someone?  So if they know someone else believes the player could be an asset, why would they give him away for a discount?  Good luck and happy trading.

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Tuesday: 05.10.2011

The Death of “Buying Low”

A few weeks back, I was having an email discussion with Ray Guilfoyle from FakeTeams.com and we were discussing some pitchers to buy.  A phrase that surfaced was one we see a ton early on in the season, “buy low”.  It doesn’t matter what outlet you are reading or podcast/radio show you’re listening to, you will hear discussion about buying low on a player sooner or later.

I’m not looking down my nose at those who use it as I have said it plenty myself, but I think it’s a misnomer.  I had been thinking it for a while and shared my thoughts with Ray who shared my thoughts on the matter.  Rarely are you going to be able to truly buy low on an asset.  Do you really think there was any legitimate discount on Albert Pujols early on in the season when he was struggling to get going?  How often do owners really slash prices on their early round picks who are underperforming in the first handful of weeks?

I think it is time to dispose of the phrase altogether or at least change the definition of it.  When people think of buying low right now, they think they can go out and get a player at something less (often dramatically less) than 100% of his value based on his performance.  What the “low” of buying low should mean is that a player’s numbers are under expectations.  You’re buying when his stats are low, not his value.  That said, I doubt we would see a shift in the phrase’s meaning thus abolishing it altogether is the likely the way to go.

Think about it this way, most owners know that when you inquire for their guy hitting below the Mendoza Line, you obviously believe he is going to rebound.  You wouldn’t purposely buy someone who is struggling if you thought it was going to continue that way.  Your interest will almost certainly raise the antenna of an owner on that player and he is NOT going to be undercut 99 times out of 100.

When I recommend a buy, I’m OK if his cost is still one hundred cents on the dollar (in other words 1:1) because I think that player will rebound to expected levels meaning you’re buying all of (or at least most of) his goodness.

Let me be clear before I get a flood of tweets and emails about trades where people got underperforming stars for 75 cents (or less) on the dollar that I am speaking generally.  I understand that it will happen at times, but by and large it is a thing of the past and in a league of keen owners, you’re not going to lift their top players on the cheap because a poor three or four-week spell.

I would also stress that it depends on the caliber of player.  Some third and fourth tier players who get off to weak starts might be had on the cheap, but they weren’t going to cost much even if they performed up to expectations because they are third and fourth tier guys.

So with that said, who are some guys worth buying on?

Hanley Ramirez (.208, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 15 R, 8 SB) – This is exactly the kind of guy I am talking about.  Do you really think Hanley owners are going to take a poo-poo platter headlined by Darwin Barney and Kevin Correia for a guy who was the second and sometimes even first pick of the draft?  I don’t see it happening.  If anything, his price might be raised to make owner throw in the towel on him and miss out on all of his great stats.  I don’t recommend overpaying, but I would pay a reasonable full value price for the stud shortstop.  The top trade on CBS has Hanley teamed with Brett Anderson and Justin Smoak for Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler.  There is no discount there (nor should there be).

Jason Heyward (.220, 7 HR, 14 RBI, 18 R, 2 SB) – The seven homers still stand out, but the ugly batting average might have opened up the smallest little crevice for the first time since Opening Day of last year that his owner might actually consider trading him.  Throw in a sore right shoulder suffered tonight (Tuesday, May 10th) and there may be a slight bit of trepidation creeping into the mind of the Heyward team owner.  Don’t be afraid to pay full price (unless the injury is super-serious), but it is a great time to at least inquire.

Carl Crawford (.210, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 11 RBI, 5 SB) – Part of this buy v. buy low is of course perception.  You may be paying a price that you feel is a buy low while others may think you paid equal value and still someone else might think you overpaid.  A recent trade in my 13-team mixed league saw Crawford and Fausto Carmona go for Jered Weaver and Nick Swisher.  Is that a discount for Crawford?  I don’t think so.  Swisher is going to regress to his mean for the other owner.  Carmona is a wildcard because there has been some skills improvement (strikeout, walk and groundball rates all better), but either way I think Weaver is a significant price to pay for Crawford.  And it should be that way, of course.

Nelson Cruz (.219, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 13 R, 1 SB) – Here’s a shocker to nobody in the world: Cruz is on the disabled list.  It’s making a bid to push out “taxes” and pair up with “death” for that cliché about certainties in life or at the very least get its own Geico commercial.  He has just eight ribbies after putting up 10 in the first nine days.  That said, he is an elite across-the-board threat who puts up full season totals in less than 130 games a year.  I wouldn’t trade for him in H2H weekly leagues, but roto leaguers may want to check in and see what he costs.

Adam Dunn (.176, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 10 R, 0 SB) – Dunn has the 2nd-worst average among major league regulars right now (Kelly Johnson & Jorge Posada tied at .174) which is awful even for a guy like Dunn who you expect to struggle with gathering hits.  The real issue is that this perennial 40-home run hitter has just three putting him on pace for a mere 13.  I certainly don’t see that continuing.  If you are in an OBP league, his 20 walks give him a .315 OBP which isn’t good by any stretch, but passable enough not to kill you as compared to those in a batting average league where the sub-.200 stings a bit more.  Dunn has averaged 6.5 home runs per month the last five years, and even if he just does that from here on out you’ve got about 31 home runs coming your way the rest of the season.

Carlos Santana (.214, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 16 R, 0 SB) – Like Heyward, the only major struggle is the batting average.  And like Heyward, that may be enough to finally open up an opportunity where his owner would be open to trading him.  Perhaps, he is worried that there are residual effects from last year’s injury or that is he just an overhyped prospect (neither are true).  Whatever it is, if it is there, it’s to your benefit.  Check the temperature and see if you can acquire this rising star.

These names shouldn’t surprise you much.  A lot of you might be thinking “Duh Paul? Of course I’d like to get that guy”, but my point is that you should be interested in acquiring them even if it costs your Roy Halladay or Mat Holliday or Joey Votto or Dan Haren.  Or whoever else you may have who is off to a great start, but can reasonably be dealt for these guys and from your team without decimating it.

If you can get these guys at any sort of discount, then by all means, but if you go in with the mindset of buying low or bust, you are likely going to come away disappointed more often than not.  What you really need to ask yourself after identifying what you believe is a “buy-low” target is, “Would I deal him away for anything less than 1:1 value?”  If (and when) that answer is invariably “no”, then you know you should be ready to pay an appropriate price based on the expectations and long-term track record of the player.

Tomorrow I’ll share some pitchers that I’m buying at fair market value despite sub-optimal starts to the season. 

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

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