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Thursday: 03.24.2011

2011 Guide to Middle Reliever Methodology

Previous versions:

2009

2008

I didn’t do a 2010 version of the MR guide.  I think it was because my main Thursday column over at Fanball was called “Middle Men” so I was writing about middle relievers every week.  A quick refresher on the idea of MRM for the uninitiated—the goal is to acquire three dirt-cheap middle relievers who in turn will net you the stats of an elite starting pitcher. From my experiences, it is best employed in single league auctions. That doesn’t mean that it can’t be done in mixed league drafts and auctions, especially deep ones, just that I find it most effective in SLAs.

This strategy seems to gain traction yearly with more and more fantasy magazines and online draft kits dedicating a portion to middle relievers.  Of course they often identify the elite middle relievers.  I won’t gloss over the elite of middle relievers in my list, but I hope to highlight the up & comers so that you have a deep list in case other owners choose to utilize the MRM for their teams as well.  Not only that, but some of us will invariably end up in leagues where the bulk of middle relievers are ignored or severely undervalued.

I’d hate to assume that every league was going to bid up the top ones and leave you empty-handed when they finally do come available on the cheap.  The idea is to find the next elite reliever since the whole goal is to save money in the budget for more hitting*.

(*I’m saving it for hitting, you may choose to invest it in a higher priced ace starter or closer.)

VOLUME

When you’re constructing your three-pack of relievers, you need to keep an eye on their innings totals from the past couple of seasons. Some guys have very appetizing strikeout and walk rates, but are used in a very limited capacity (30-40 IP) and thus should be counted only as your third guy, if at all, unless you are predicting an increased role for 2011.

We are seeing greater balance in workload among the relief corps.  In 2009, eight non-closing relievers managed 80+ innings of relief work.  In 2010, there were only five such non-closing relievers.  Compare that with five years ago when there were 14 and 10 years ago when there were 19.  Only two relievers topped 90 innings last year so you’re looking for 70+ innings at the high end.

WHO’S NEXT?

Here are five young small-sample strikeout studs that you should keep on your radar:

1. Jordan Walden, 23 years old, Los Angeles Angels – He displayed blistering heat (avg. 99 MPH w/his fastball) in his 15-inning sample at the big league level last year striking out 23 batters.  He’s a failed starter as a 2-pitch pitcher whose third just never developed, but he looks like he could be a dominant setup guy behind Fernando Rodney and might even get a shot at saves at some point this year.

2. Kenley Jansen, 23, Los Angeles Dodgers – He had a star turn in 27 innings similar to Walden’s where he struck out 41 batters.  He’s actually a failed catcher that the Dodgers shifted to the pen with great success in limited samples thus far.  Unlike Walden, there is legitimate competition for saves on the Dodgers with Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo so he’s almost certainly going to spend the year in the 6th through 8th innings.

3. Zach Braddock, 23, Milwaukee Brewers – Likely to be just a LOOGY as a southpaw who crushed lefties in his 34 innings of work.  Even still, he has massive strikeout potential and could develop a larger role if veteran arms LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito succumb to injury.

4. Collin Balester, 25, Washington Nationals – Another failed starter, Balester shifted to the pen last year with great success in 21 innings striking out 28 batters.  If the team places importance on Spring Training numbers, Balester should grab a spot in the bullpen as he’s excelled in his nine innings striking out 10 and walking just two.  As a former starter, he could be stretched out for 2-inning stints and end up pushing the 100-inning mark which could make him especially valuable if he continues to strikeout a batter per inning or better.

5. Ernesto Frieri, 25, San Diego Padres – With Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb shipped out for Cameron Maybin, spots are open in the SD bullpen and Frieri had a great 32 inning audition during which he struck out 41 batters.  This could be the next great unheralded middle reliever for the Padres.  He’s no better than fifth on list for saves, so don’t speculate here if you want saves.

NON-STARTING STARTERS

Here are three guys that have come up as starting pitchers, but may be forced to the bullpen due to filled rotations:

1. Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins – He’s carried a solid 6.9 K/9 in 473 innings as a starter and I could see that ticking up above eight as a reliever.  How he will be utilized out of the bullpen is a bit of a mystery at this point, but I can’t imagine he would be much more than a 6th-7th inning guy and then a long relief guy for the 2nd through 5th innings every fifth day when Nick Blackburn pitches.

2. Hisanori Takahashi, Los Angeles Angels – The swingman pitched 122 innings for the Mets last year and was much better out of the bullpen.  He struck out 9.4 batters per game in 57 relief innings posting a 2.04 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.  Meanwhile he struck out 7.5 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 12 starts totaling 65 innings.  He could have some sneaky value, especially if they use him more than an inning at a time.

3. Manny Parra, Milwaukee Brewers – Like Takahashi, Parra struggled when starting and excelled out of the ‘pen.  His strikeouts were strong regardless of role (9.4 as SP, 9.8 as RP), but in 16 starts he posted a 6.19 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 84 innings.  Meanwhile his ERA was 2.39 with a 1.35 WHIP in 38 relief innings.  The WHIP was still high, but I’m really not concerned with a reliever’s WHIP in terms of impact on a team’s bottom line by the end of the season.  As I mentioned in the Closer Tier’s piece, Carlos Marmol’s crazy awful WHIP from 2009 (1.46) would impact a standard 12-team staff by 0.01-0.02 depending on the final innings count.  There’s an impact, but not nearly to the degree many analysts suggest.

THE ELITE

This is the cream of the middle reliever crop as I see it.  These are the guys that will likely cost you the most to acquire as just about everyone recognizes their value.  In the cases where your league fails to pump their costs, jump at the chance to get them at a discount.  Also, I’m not saying you can’t pay more than a dollar on them, but some of them might creep as high as $8-10 which is a price I’m not willing to pay.  In fact, anything above $5 would likely push me out.  Here are the favorites:

1. Luke Gregerson, San Diego Padres – Back-to-back 75+ inning seasons averaging 10.7 K/9 combined with the ever-looming threat of a Heath Bell trade make him the most sought after middle man these days.  He doesn’t give an elite ERA (3.24 and 3.22), but it doesn’t hurt, either.  You are drafting him for the major strikeouts and potential emergence into the closer’s role.

2. Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds – He’s one of the hottest prospects in the game so his value is likely to be through the roof relative to middle relievers.  He could be a 100-inning, 100+ strikeout guy if Dusty Baker doesn’t lean veteran heavy and realizes the gem he has with Chapman.  Eventually he should be tried as a starter, so he should get some 2-inning stints to keep him at least somewhat stretched out.

3. Daniel Bard, Boston Red Sox – The arrival of Bobby Jenks likely puts Bard third on the list for saves, but that doesn’t curb his value for me.  He’s their best reliever for sure and they need him pitching the most important outs to get to the ninth with a lead.  He was excellent in 2010 and I could see him getting even better and taking that strikeout rate back up over 11 as he did in 2009.

4. Mike Adams, San Diego Padres – The skill is not in question at all.  It’s a matter of staying healthy for Adams.  He has yet to put together back-to-back healthy seasons so 2011 would complete his first pair.  He’s been the complete package at relief with gaudy strikeout totals and minuscule ERA and WHIP rates.

5. Joaquin Benoit, Detroit Tigers – Missed all of 2009, but came back with a career year that earned him a hefty contract.  Like Adams, the skill is not in doubt at all, it’s all about staying healthy.  He will be a major asset setting up Jose Valverde and could get some sneaky saves when Valverde needs a break.

6. Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers – Another guy similar to Adams whose skill is elite, but staying on the field has been problematic.  A complete season in 2011 would be his first pair of back-to-back full seasons, too.  He absolutely obliterates lefties (.095 last year), but crushes righties too, avoiding LOOGY status.

7. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants – His value is ticking upward as Brian Wilson’s status for Opening Day remains in doubt.  Romo isn’t guaranteed to get the saves if Wilson is absent, but he is the one most are speculating on thanks to back-to-back seasons with 10+ K/9 rates matched with a sub-3.0 BB/9.

8. Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics – Balfour is a good example of how a reliever’s ERA can vary wildly year-to-year even if the skills stay relatively steady.  The samples are so small that it a bit of randomness can make a huge difference.  He has maintained strong skills with strikeout per inning stuff for his entire career and the control is improving as he ages.  In Oakland’s spacious park, he’ll be even better.

9. Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies – The home runs are always going to keep his ERA high for an elite reliever (3.50 or higher), but the ridiculous control (3 seasons below 2.0 BB/9 including 1.2 last year) and equally ridiculous strikeout rates make him a useful asset.

10. Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees – Speaking of home runs, I’m worried about how Soriano’s massive flyball rate (52% last year, 50% career) will play in Yankee Stadium.  The skills are strong otherwise, but the ERA will likely be higher than the sub-3.00* totals he has posted since 2006.  (*it was right at 3.00 in 2007)

THE NEXT LEVEL

Here is where you can find value.  A few of these guys likely won’t be at the forefront of many radars in your league.  Some are known, but still just don’t command a price tag commensurate with their value (which is of course great for us).  And others have the name, but found themselves in this tier because I value them as next-level despite their elite tier price tag—you may want to pass on those that fit those criteria:

1. Matt Belisle, Colorado Rockies – Came out of a nowhere with a brilliant season last year, but the lack of a legitimate track record is what keeps him out of the elite column.  Can he maintain the strikeout per inning stuff and more importantly will Colorado allow him to throw 92 innings again or close to it at least?  If so, he’s great and likely quite underrated.

2. Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals – This is an example of what we’re trying to find the next example of in 2011.  Clippard was taxed by the Nats throwing 91 innings in 78 appearances, but he delivered with 11.1 K/9, a 3.07 ERA and 11 wins.  In fact, he had 17 decisions.  I wouldn’t bet on anything close to that again as reliever wins are even flukier than starting pitcher ones.  He will likely be overrated in 2011.

3. Bobby Jenks, Boston Red Sox – Don’t underestimate Jenks this year.  He could be closing at some point if Papelbon is moved, but if not we could see his workload increase back into the high 60s for the first time since 2007 as he won’t be used solely according to save availability.

4. Takashi Saito, Milwaukee Brewers – Even at 41, he shows no signs of slowing down.  He’s more a 55-inning pitcher these days as opposed to 65-70 he gave when came to the majors in 2006, but he can still offer 65+ strikeouts in that time.

5. David Robertson, New York Yankees – He’s been a favorite of mine since back in 2009 when he was an unknown.  Now part of a deep bullpen, he’s still pumping out massive strikeout totals, but the lack of control leaves his ERA & WHIP elevated.  The latter doesn’t bother me in the least.

6. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox – I love this kid, but there’s no way he deserved the closer’s role over Matt Thornton based on a 23 innings at the end of the season.  Drafted as a starter, he could be the swingman for Chicago this year which could boost his innings total and add to his value.

7. Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox – The converted infielder came out of nowhere to have a very good season out of the bullpen last year striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings.  His control was a bit erratic and he seemed to wear down late in the season.  He should improve in 2011.

8. Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals – I know he’s done it for two and a half years, but I still don’t buy Ryan Franklin as a closer.  Motte will get a chance sooner or later.  In the meantime, he’s good for a strikeout an inning and improving control and rate stats.

9. Kevin Jepsen, Los Angeles Angels – Another guy I’ve liked for a while, he’s been up and down, but with Scott Downs on the DL to start the season, he could be first in line for saves behind an ever-shaky Fernando Rodney.

10. David Hernandez, Arizona Diamondbacks – After struggling as a starter despite some quality stuff, he transitioned nicely to the bullpen raising his strikeout rate from 5.7 K/9 in eight starts (42 IP) to 10.9 in 37 innings of relief.  In fact, he improved across the board.  I love JJ Putz this year, but back spasms are putting his Opening Day in doubt and Hernandez should be heir apparent.

11. Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees – We all know what he can do.  The Yankees aren’t afraid to allow him to pitch more than an inning at a time (did so 15 times last year) so he could feasibly push the 80-inning mark, though the depth of the NY bullpen might eliminate the need.

12. Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers – With Neftali Feliz officially taking back the closer’s role, Ogando is firmly entrenched as his setup man.  He looked strong in his 41-inning debut and has looked even stronger in the minors with a 12.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 112 innings (all but 31 came in Dominican Summer League, but he dominated AA and AAA for those 31, too).

13. Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies – Another high dollar guy (again, relative to middle relievers) because Brad Lidge is so shaky in front of him and he has a long track record of quality middle relief.  His strikeout rate has increased yearly since 2006 nearly touching 11 last year.  A chair kicking incident cost him a lot of time last year as it resulted in a broken toe.  Otherwise, he’s a high workload reliever when healthy.

14. Joel Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays – He enjoyed a breakout season at age 34 last year and color me a bit skeptical.  He is in the mix for some saves as they vow to go closer by committee, but I want to see if the strikeouts are for real before investing.

15. Edward Mujica, Florida Marlins – He finally paired his elite control (0.8 in ’10, 1.4 career) with a big time strikeout rate (9.3) resulting in a sick 12.0 K/BB rate.  His home run rate has been a problem for his entire career and leaving PETCO will be problematic even though Sun Life Stadium is still solid for pitchers.

GOLD MINING

If the last tier is where you find value, then this is where you get rich. Some of your leaguemates won’t even know who a handful of these guys are, but they have the skills and they just might become the next best thing. Even if they don’t become sometimes-closers or vulture five-plus wins, they could just rack up 65+innings of quality work anonymously for your team:

1. Clay Hensley, Florida Marlins – He might be a bit more known as he is supposed to be the next in line behind Leo Nunez, but Nunez was much better than many are giving him credit for so I think he holds the job.  Hensley had his best season yet last year after spending all of ’09 in the minors.  I wouldn’t pay more than $2 to find out if he can repeat.

2. Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants – His career profile is a great example of how volatile a middle reliever’s skills can be as he has bounced from useful to scrub before finally notching his best season last year at age 30.  Don’t go crazy for him.

3. Chris Resop, Pittsburgh Pirates – He has remade himself as a strikeout-heavy reliever and should finally get a chance to do it for a full season, especially since he’s out of options.

4. Sean Marshall, Chicago Cubs – In his first season as a full-time reliever, he took a nice step forward in the strikeout rate and pitched in a lot of high leverage situations allowing him to accumulate seven wins.  Don’t bet on the wins, but this lefty can get right and left handers out.

5. Bobby Parnell, New York Mets – Looked sharp in 76 relief innings between AAA and the majors and I think he is a primed for 80+ inning season with quality stats.  A great dollar value very late.

6. Jesse Crain, Chicago White Sox – If the spike in strikeout rate (8.2 last year, 5.8 career to date prior to ’10) is for real, he’s usually good for at least 65 innings making him plenty useful as a dollar guy in that deep bullpen.

7. Sean Burnett, Washington Nationals – Emerged with an outburst of strikeouts last year raising his rate more than two to 8.9 K/9 in 63 innings.  The backend of Washington’s bullpen is uncertain so he could grab some saves, too.

8. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs – He’ll pump tons of strikeouts, but also tons of walks and he’s good for at least a DL stint or two so if you league counts injuries he is a first round pick.

9. Tim Collins, Kansas City Royals – The diminutive Collins (5’7) carries a strikeout rate that belies his stature (13.3 K/9 in 223 minor league IP).  He should make the team out of camp and I see no reason he won’t continue to pile up the strikeouts.

10. Anthony Slama, Minnesota Twins – Nicked a little bit with an elbow issue this spring, but he should be back at some point this season and he can be a huge strikeout asset out of the Minnesota bullpen.  Monitor his return and be ready to jump in.

11. Michael Wuertz, Oakland Athletics – He’s only had the one great season, 2009, so I’m a little skeptical, but he did maintain a strikeout per inning in an injury-riddled season last year.  The home ballpark always helps, but don’t bet on 2009 numbers.

12. Bill Bray, Cincinnati Reds – Looked as good as ever after missing all of 2009, but he is a LOOGY so he doesn’t pile up many innings which limits his potential.

13. Dan Runzler, San Francisco Giants – He’s got an explosive strikeout rate in his 41 innings as a big leaguer, but a 5.5 BB/9 suggests caution.  He could be a great sleeper if he tames the control and increases the workload.

14. Jeremy Jeffress, Kansas City Royals – Triple digit heat and a devastating breaking pitch scream future closer for this top prospect.  He may not break camp with the team, but when he comes up, he will be a target.  Don’t overpay, though.

15. Louis Coleman, Kansas City Royals – A big 2010 in the minors coupled with a big spring have earned him some sleeper buzz.  Reliever spring stats might be the most worthless of all as they samples are insanely small.  His 92 innings from last year are enough to know he can be a big strikeout guy out of KC’s pen.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Middle Reliever Method, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 10 Comments »

Thursday: 03.24.2011

2011 Bold Predictions-Part 3

Continuing on with the AL West…

Part 1

Part 2

Part 4

Los Angeles Angels:

Jordan Walden strikes out 100 batters – Twice a top 81 prospect (2008: 81, 2007: 70), Walden failed as a starter, but looks like he could become the next great middle reliever for the Angels.  It was a tiny sample, but he dominated in his 15-inning stint out of the pen last year striking out 23 batters.  The Angels aren’t afraid to give a reliever they like 70+ innings and Walden’s recent history as a starter could lead to some 2-inning relief stints.  Even if your league doesn’t use holds, Walden is a nice $1-2 addition to the back end of your AL-Only staff if only for the strikeout help.

Howie Kendrick hits .347 – Seems like predictions of a Kendrick batting title have been floating around for years.  Now a 6th-year big leaguer, he finally played his first full season last year (injuries shortened most of the others), but hit an underwhelming .279 in 616 at-bats.  He still has the skills to rack up hits and this could be the year he finally delivers on the batting average promise of his prospect days.  Some seem to believe second base is thin this year, but it’s really not so don’t reach for Kendrick even if you think he could explode for this big season.  I think it is better to use the 2B depth to fill in your middle (2B/SS) position since shortstop is such a wasteland.

Oakland Athletics:

Coco Crisp stays healthy and goes 20-50 – Like the Carlos Quentin prediction, this one is more of a health one than anything else.  Crisp has never played more than 145 games in a season, but he will need to this year if he’s to meet this 20 home run/50 stolen base projection.  He is seemingly always nicked or bruised with something or other.  The skills are there, as evidenced by his excellent 75-game sample last year (8 HR, 32 SB), but he needs to find a way to play 150+ games.

Gio Gonzalez takes another step forward with the control and tops his ’10 ERA – The easy play is to predict an ERA regression for Gonzalez as his control, though improved, is still high at 4.1 BB/9.  But what if he is just getting started?  What if he regains his K/IP stuff from 2008 and 2009 while improving that 4.1 walk rate and takes the ERA even lower?  I feel like I have been touting Gonzalez forever, but he will be just 25 this year and 2010 was just his first full season.  He is a star in the making and it could come as soon as 2011.

Seattle Mariners:

Michael Pineda throws 175 innings of 3.50 ERA – I have preached time and time again that seasons like Tommy Hanson’s rookie year in 2009 (128 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) are the exception and not the rule with freshmen pitchers, even the best prospects.  I still firmly believe that, but Pineda could be another exception.  He is going to secure a rotation spot out of camp and the 22-year old will combine major league-ready stuff with a friendly home ballpark and quality supporting defense.  He will eventually become a legitimate #2 behind Felix Hernandez, but he’s a good spec play in keeper leagues right away because he could easily hit the ground running with the factors working in his favor.  The 175-inning count would only be 35 more than last year across AA and AAA so the Mariners don’t have to limit him too much.

Erik Bedard throws 180 innings – The skill isn’t in question so even projecting a sub-3.00 ERA with 180+ Ks wouldn’t be terribly bold.  It’s all about keeping Bedard healthy and getting him on the mound every fifth day.  He’s a late round upside play that can pay massive dividends just by staying healthy.  Easier said than done, but I think Seattle finally gets some returns from that awful trade with Baltimore that brought Bedard to the Pacific Northwest.

Texas Rangers:

Nelson Cruz hits 44 home runs and steals 31 bases – From a pure 5-tool skills standpoint, Cruz is one of the best players in all of baseball.  I don’t think he gets the credit he deserves for that, though, because in his two big seasons he has only played 128 and 108 games, respectively.  If he can make it 150+ games, he can have an all-time fantasy baseball season.

Elvis Andrus hits .324 and steals 56 bases – Too often the fantasy community pigeonholes players and closes off the possibility of growth within their profile after one bad season.  I think Andrus might be falling into that category a little bit already (he’s 22!!!).  He regressed some in his sophomore season, there is no doubt about it.  He hit for less average, had a disgustingly bad .301 SLUGGING PERCENTAGE and was only 32-for-47 (68%, 72% is the break-even point for SBs) on the basepaths.  So now he’s a no-hit slick fielding shortstop with some speed for the rest of his career?  After his rookie season, he was the next big thing, but a slight regression as a 21-year old now has many down on him.  There is often too much overreaction to one season whether positive or negative.  Stepping off of my soapbox, Andrus is a talented ballplayer who has legitimate growth potential in his profile.  And we could see a large dose of it in 2011.

Next up: NL East

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Bold Predictions, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 3 Comments »

Wednesday: 03.23.2011

2011 Bold Predictions-Part 1

One of the more exciting things to think about as the season approaches is which players are going to have the break through seasons?  Who are going to be this year’s Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto and Jose Bautista or David Price, Jaime Garcia and Ubaldo Jimenez?  For the past few years I have tried to answer that question with “Bold Prediction” columns over at Fanball.  I could’ve sworn I posted at least the 2009 iteration here, too, but I can’t seem to find after an extensive search.

I’m hardly the only one undertaking this task as Ron Shandler and crew have their Longshot Caucus over at BaseballHQ.com and Matthew Berry has his You Heard Me! piece over at his page on ESPN.  I believe he will be releasing that soon and it’s always a fun read.  Both are, in fact.  Hopefully I am able to deliver to that end as well.

In case you don’t remember from previous versions over at Fanball, the bold predictions column isn’t a bunch of aimless predictions, but rather it looks at a player’s whole profile, in the pros and minors, and tries to project out some best case scenarios for them.  These aren’t surefire bets, they are longshots that need a myriad of factors to go right if they are to happen.  You should reasonably expect between 15% and 20% of them to come to fruition.  The point is to get you thinking outside of the box(score) and not focus so much on what we’ve seen, rather entertain what we could see.

I am not going to have the Brady Anderson 50 home run season-type prediction in here because nothing in his profile would’ve told me that was possible so I wouldn’t project it.  Some of these may be “duhs” to you which simply means you’re already looking at possible outcomes beyond what we’ve seen to date.  In the end if there is a prediction you agree with and it causes you to go the extra buck on a guy and outperforms his cost, but doesn’t necessarily meet the exact figure in the prediction, it’s still a win (i.e. I had Gio Gonzalez projected for 175 Ks last year coming off of a season in which he had a near-6.00 ERA.  He finished with 171 and a 3.23 ERA.  If you bought in, you certainly profited significantly).

Some of the other calls from last year include:

  • Shaun Marcum will pick up right where 2008 left off
  • Luis Valbuena will hit 18 HR and steal 18 bases
  • Juan Pierre will steal 70 bases
  • Kelly Johnson will hit 21 HR and .300
  • Manny Ramirez will hit 40 HR
  • Nate Schierholtz will hit .320 with 15 HR
  • Ubaldo Jimenez wins 20 games
  • Billy Wagner will save 40 games (“And might very well be the league’s best closer.”)
  • Mike Stanton will hit 17 HR
  • Mike Jacobs will hit 35 HR
  • Lastings Milledge will hit 20 HR, steal 20 bases
  • Joey Votto will hit 35 HR, drive in 120 runs

That’s a decent sample of wins and losses.  As you can see, some were incredibly far off the mark by October, but you could have envisioned a scenario where they came true and you wouldn’t have have been utterly baffled as to how like you probably were after Ben Zobrist’s 2009 line of .297, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 91 R and 17 SB.  Yes, I highlighted some of the big wins there.  I definitely did not have a 58% success rate as this sample of 12 might lead you to believe.  In fact, I went 18-for-73 yielding a 25% success rate.  Let’s see if we can top that for 2011:

AL East

Baltimore Orioles:

J.J. Hardy hits a career-high 33 home runs – A bum wrist (and other various bumps & bruises) have sapped his power the last two years after a pair of mid-20s home run seasons in Milwaukee back in 2007 and 2008.  He moves to a very hitter-friendly ballpark and he is reportedly finally 100% healthy and clear of the wrist issues.  He is in the midst of his prime and I’m buying the clean bill of health.  He is going very late in fantasy drafts at the most scarce position on the diamond.  If you out on the “studs” at short in an AL-Only, wait on Hardy.

Zach Britton pitches 120+ quality innings at the big leagues – His absurd sinker and devastating slider are major league ready while his changeup is catching up quickly.  He will almost certainly start the season in AAA, but he shouldn’t be there long.  The O’s rotation is hardly stable as it currently stands so once the Super 2 Deadline passes, he should be inserted into the big league rotation where I think he will be an instant success.  “Quality innings” is a bit vague so to clarify, I’m thinking he can net a 3.50ish ERA (give or take .15 for random variance) with 6.5 K/9 and 2.0+ K/BB.  The strikeouts will rise as he gains experience, but he will utilize that sinker to induce a ton of groundballs as he gains his feel for the big leagues.

Nick Markakis finally has the .300-30-100 season – I made this one last year and I’m headed to the well again.  I was only off by 18 home runs and 40 RBIs last year!  Joking aside, he is just too good of a player to be hitting 12 home runs in a season.  A 30-home run season would be seven higher than his previous career high and 10 more than his last three seasons.  He is still at the front end of his prime so don’t rule out an explosion that would shock the narrow-minded.

Jake Fox’s regular season home run total won’t match his Spring Training total… – … because he’s not good.  He has eight as of this writing and even if he doesn’t hit another one this spring, he still won’t top that figure in the 2011 regular season.  Don’t waste your money.

—

Boston Red Sox:

Jacoby Ellsbury hits .320 with 16 HR – The speed will be there, too, but with a career high of 70 there is nothing that would be all that bold.  If he met this projection, he would be a Carl Crawford-lite.

Jon Lester posts a 2.50-2.75 ERA with 24 wins en route to an AL Cy Young – I had too many wins-based predictions for pitchers last year which was dumb because I’m always beating the “skill doesn’t always translate to wins” drum so I was leaving the projection in the hands of the offenses, defenses and bullpens when I was really trying to comment on the pitcher’s skill.  I included the 24-win mark in Lester’s prediction because I think he has the appropriate backing of offense, defense and bullpen to reward his increasingly excellent skill.

—

New York Yankees:

Alex Rodriguez hits 52 home runs – It’s hard to really predict anything that can reasonably be considered bold with A-Rod, but he’s 35 years old and has back-to-back 30 home run seasons leading many to believe he is firmly into his decline phase.  There is some skill erosion, but the decline is much smoother with transcendent players like A-Rod and I think he has at least one more MVP-type season in him.  He is a bona fide bargain at a very thin position as he goes mid-to-late second round in many leagues.  The best part about A-Rod, other than the fact that he’s finally healthy again, is that there’s a very high floor so why not invest?

Nick Swisher hits 38 home runs – He’s actually getting better the deeper he goes into his prime and though he hasn’t topped 29 in the last four seasons and 38 would be a career-high, the potential is there especially in that park.  He’s another guy with a high floor having played 150+ games each of the last five seasons.  The batting average isn’t quite the risk that many make it out to be as his .219 season in 2008 is now the clear outlier of his career.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Evan Longoria hits .324-41-133 – No, I’m not among those freaking out about his 11 homer  drop from 2009 to 2010.  After all, his OPS dropped a whopping .010 to .879.  This guy is a superstar and as such he will have some truly excellent seasons in his career.  I am looking at his age 25 in 2011 as the first such season.  All three figures would be career highs and while it wouldn’t necessarily come out of nowhere as he’s a clear first round pick, it would definitely be a profit-laden season.  Some outlets have questioned his mid-first round status, but I think it’s justified even if he “just” repeats 2010 because third base is so lame after the star cut.

James Shields posts a 3.25 ERA – His base skills actually showed significant improvement in 2010 yet his surface stats were the worst of his career because of an atrocious 1.5 home run rate.  He’s not a flyball-heavy pitcher, in fact he’s had a sub-40% flyball rate each of the last three years, yet when someone got a hold of one it was gone.  His skills are just too damn good for a 5.18 ERA or even the 4.14 ERA from 2009. I’m seeing a major course correction.

—

Toronto Blue Jays:

Ricky Romero shaves nearly a full walk off of his control rate and takes his ERA below 3.00 – I could see the strikeouts rising up above eight per game, but I’m not betting on it just yet as he seems to understand that inducing groundballs is the more efficient way of pitching.  I love that he has the groundball and strikeout in his arsenal.

Travis Snider completes his Adam Lind Path to Stardom – I hope he doesn’t take every step Adam Lind has after Lind’s 2010.  Both had a strong call up, then regressed in their true rookie season and bounced back to average in another half season of play.  Lind followed it up with an explosive 2009 hitting .305 with 35 HR and 114 RBIs.  I’m not sure Snider will hit .305, but he could also top the 35 homers that Lind hit.  I think a big season is in the offing and he’s two years younger than Lind was during his ascension.  Put Snider down for .270 and 38 bombs.  His RBIs will be determined by batting order.

Brandon Morrow improves his walk rate and cuts over a run off of his ERA – With his incredibly electric stuff, Morrow could accelerate his progression with improved command.  Regardless of how much he can improve his walk rate, I think there is a legitimate ceiling on Morrow’s 2011 because the Jays will cap his innings.  I could see the cap ending up somewhere around 175.  In a surprise announcement today, he will start the season on the disabled list with elbow inflammation.  Hopefully this curbs his value a few days before one of the biggest draft/auction weekends of the season.  As I mentioned re: Kevin Slowey yesterday, don’t draft for April.  If anything, take advantage of any inherent discount brought on by his missing a start or maybe two.

Next Up: AL Central

The goal is to put these up throughout the day tomorrow.  I didn’t realize how lengthy they were going to get as I originally intended to go AL/NL in a two-parter.  That would’ve been too long (that’s what she said) so I’m breaking it up by division.  I will also have my Middle Reliever Guide out this week.  I was hoping for today, but again this project expanded a bit more than I expected.

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Tuesday: 03.22.2011

Walking the Walk

Have you ever wondered how much analysts follow the advice they dole out?  I get curious sometimes when I’m listening to various podcasts or reading different sites.  In case that is something you have wondered about me, I wanted to share some information from a 15-team mixed league draft I just completed.

All told, I drafted five of the pitchers from the list of 18 favorites for 2011:

Chad Billingsley (95th overall, 7th round)

Ricky Romero (176th overall, 12th round)

Edwin Jackson (245th overall, 17th round)

James McDonald (296th overall, 20th round)

Tim Stauffer (326th overall, 22nd round)

I had a few others queued up and watched as they were swiped right before I could take them.   Of the many interesting picks throughout the draft, one that is pertinent to this discussion was Brandon Morrow being taken 101st overall (7th round).  Remember what I said about him yesterday, “I think he is getting a little trendy raising his value, but that doesn’t dissuade me.”

Going that early does dissuade me.  I like him a lot, but I have my limits.  Notable names taken shortly after him that I value higher include: Shaun Marcum, Wandy Rodriguez, Colby Lewis, Brett Anderson, Hiroki Kuroda and Romero.  And that was just in the subsequent two rounds.  In a 15-team draft, you will have to extend out at times to get your target, but that was a bit egregious as far as I’m concerned.

Even though there is a near-100% chance nobody cares, here’s how my whole team turned out.  I picked 5th and it’s a hold + saves league otherwise standard 5×5 categories:

C – J.P. Arencibia

C – A.J. Pierzynski

1B – Billy Butler

2B – Omar Infante

3B – Evan Longoria

SS – Derek Jeter

CI – Gaby Sanchez

MI – Danny Espinosa

OF – Shin-Soo Choo

OF – Ichiro Suzuki

OF – Jay Bruce

OF – Nick Markakis

OF – J.D. Drew

UT – Adam Lind

BE – Juan Uribe

BE – Mark DeRosa

BE – Bill Hall

—

P1 – Chad Billingsley

P2 – Ricky Romero

P3 – John Lackey

P4 – Edwin Jackson

P5 – James McDonald

P6 – Tim Stauffer

P7 – Aroldis Chapman

P8 – Mike Adams

P9 – J.J. Putz

BE – Rick Porcello

BE – Randy Wells

BE – Jordan Walden

BE – Bobby Jenks

Miguel Cabrera was available at 5, but I went with Longoria because third base dries up in a hurry and I didn’t think Ryan Zimmerman would make it back to me in the 2nd round (I was right, he went 5 picks before me in that round).  I was going to build my infield with Dustin Pedroia in the 2nd round, but he went the pick before more so I shifted to outfield with Choo.  The same exact thing happened in the 3rd round as I was looking infield again with Jose Reyes and he went three picks before me so I shifted again to the outfield.

I think the depth/scarcity of outfield is consistently misperceived in these leagues with five outfield spots.  I do think there is some scarcity within the position in that middle area so I decided to build a beastly outfield since I covered the two scarcest positions very well (Longoria) and pretty well (Jeter).

I trust myself enough with pitching that I can work with this group and on the wire to put together a strong staff.  I would rather have enough offense at the outset and have to work on the pitching aspect than vice versa.  Consider one team that has Roy Halladay, C.C. Sabathia, Tommy Hanson, Chris Carpenter, Carlos Marmol, Brian Wilson and Jonathan Papelbon giving them the makings of a tremendous staff, but a severely lagging offense after Miguel Cabrera including an outfield “highlighted” by Brett Gardner along with Franklin Gutierrez, Johnny Damon, Matt Joyce and Seth Smith.

That’s just one example, of course.  But I got “my guys” on that pitching staff and if they perform as I expect/hope, I may not have to do much work on the wire, anyway.

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Tuesday: 03.22.2011

18 of My Favorite Pitchers for 2011, Part 2

Here is the second half of my favorites for this year:

Part 1

10. Kevin Slowey – Without a spot in the rotation his value is going to plummet, but it’s a buying opportunity.  Don’t draft solely for April.  It’s a 6-month grind and skills almost always win out.  Slowey has more talent than Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing, but to start the season both will have rotation spots while Slowey will work out of the bullpen.  Slowey will be an afterthought even in AL-Only leagues and I would be more than willing to slot in him as your 8th or 9th pitcher for a few bucks and wait for him to win a spot that he deserves.  A 4.6 K/BB rate doesn’t lie.  He’s long been one of my favorite pitchers and a poor decision by Minnesota at the beginning of the season isn’t going to change that.

11. Tim Stauffer – The former #4 pick overall took a while (29 y/o in 2011), but it looks like he’s finally paying dividends on that lofty draft status.  He plays in the perfect park for pitchers, showed a major uptick in groundballs last year (up to 55%) and has seen his team add strong middle infielders (Jason Bartlett & Orlando Hudson) to field those grounders adding up to a potential breakout season.  There is a slight premium on anyone in PETCO for obvious reasons, but Stauffer seems to be firmly entrenched off the radar in most standard drafts.  He went for $8 in NL Tout Wars and could easily return twice that when you consider what PETCO did for someone with lesser skills than Stauffer in Jon Garland.

12. Chris Narveson – His near-5.00 ERA from 2010 (4.99 in 168 IP) is sure to scare most away, but he pitched much better than that.  He doesn’t have the groundball tilt I usually like out of my pitchers, but with Milwaukee’s horrendous infield defense, that might not be such a bad thing.  He has nice base skills, the next step is learning to work with runners on so he can strand a few more guys.  Part of that is cutting down the long balls, too.  I think he takes a step forward in 2011 and ends up as one of those $1-3 glue guys instrumental in a team’s success.

13. Bud Norris – Like Narveson, his skills were better than his 4.92 ERA indicates, but many will pass based on that figure and the team name on his jersey.  I’d caution strongly against that as Norris has the kind of stuff that “out-of-nowhere” seasons are made of starting with his 9.3 K/9 rate being overshadowed by unimportant factors.  Are you one of those owners dying for an upside pick?  Norris is your guy.  The lofty strikeout rate is matched with an average groundball rate and a BABIP and LOB% combo worse than league norms that could be in for positive regression.  Even if he doesn’t take that major step forward this year, his sub-$5 price tag is at worst an even investment with all of the strikeouts.

14. Carlos Carrasco – We could have a budding Sporer Trifecta of Excellence (patent pending) profile on our hands.  It was only 45 innings of work last year, so temper the expectations a bit, but he had a 7.7 K/9 with an elite 57% groundball rate and his changeup was the best pitch in his arsenal.  This is a 3-time top 54 prospect (2007: 41, 2008: 54, 2009: 52) according to Baseball America so the pedigree is there, too.  Like Norris, his jersey will have some shying away or ignoring him completely, but his first full season in the majors could be a big one.

15. Derek Holland – It seems like I have been touting Holland for so long that he should be older than 24.  Alas, he doesn’t even have 200 major league innings under his belt yet here I am again espousing the virtues of this man’s abilities.  He started to come together in a 57-inning sample last year, but the loss of Cliff Lee opens an opportunity for him to finally prove it over a full season.  Although the sample was tiny, it was nice to see him greatly improve on 2009’s ugly 1.7 HR/9 down to 0.9 a season ago.  That’s about the limit for him if he is to have that breakthrough season many see as a possibility.  He’s one of those popular sleepers so be careful if his value gets too high in your league.

16. Jason Hammel – Similar to several guys on the list whereby he has above average base skills, but is missing one ingredient that keeps him from legitimate success.  For Hammel, it’s an ability to work with runners on as he his LOB% actually got further from league average 2010 leaving him with an ERA a half run higher despite improved skills.  You could easily be looking at $10+ profit out of Hammel if leaves a few extra men on base and continues or improves his already impressive skill set.

17. Chris Tillman – Remember when Tillman was the 22nd-ranked prospect in all of baseball?  It was alllll the way back in 2009.  He then proceeded to dominate AAA for 97 innings posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 9.2 K/9 and a 3.8 K/BB.  Later that season he was knocked around in 12 starts in his major league debut resulting in an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.  The skills were nothing like his minor league pedigree at 5.4 K/9 and 1.6 K/BB.  It was essentially rinse & repeat for 2010 with 121 strong innings at AAA then 54 ugly ones in the majors.  He turns 23 on Tax Day this year.  Too often the fantasy community gives up on top prospects if they don’t set the world afire right away a la Ryan Braun or Jered Weaver.  This is a post-hype play going for as little as a dollar in some AL-Only leagues who could end up as a tremendous keeper for 2012 and beyond.  Worst case is he is still not ready in 2011 and you cut bait with little invested.

18. Ross Detwiler – This is my biggest spec play of the bunch.  I just think there could be something here with Detwiler.  He has 278 innings of minor league success suggesting he is better than the 106 innings of major league work thus far.  He is the left-handed Tillman with less fanfare and a few years older (OK, I guess there are a enough differences to make that a bad comp).  Point being he showed enough in the minors to be something of a top prospect and though he hasn’t put it all together at the major league level yet, there is reason to believe he still can and will.  Furthering his spec play status is the fact that he’s not going to have a rotation spot on Opening Day, but the four surrounding Jordan Zimmermann are neither bastions of health, nor particularly skilled at pitching so he will get a shot at some point.  If he doesn’t win a bullpen spot, just monitor him.  But if he does make the team out of camp, he could be a high strikeout $1 reliever as he bides his time for a rotation chance.

So there they are, my favorite 18 for 2011.  There is something in here for everyone regardless of what kind of league format you play in.  I guess the only thing missing is minor league prospects, but I posted 50 from each league just a few weeks ago, so you know who I like there.  I know it’s a big draft/auction week for everybody so I’m trying to get as much material out as possible for your last minute prep.  I have a draft tonight, but hopefully I can get another piece up shortly after it finishes.

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Monday: 03.21.2011

18 of My Favorite Pitchers for 2011, Part 1

Any fantasy baseball magazine, book or website is bound to have a sleepers section somewhere.  They are a fantasy staple loved by all and for good reason as everyone is looking to get the next big thing at a great price that will propel them to a title and help them for years to come if they play in a keeper league.

Of course in the Information Age we live in these days, it is really hard to get anything by your leaguemates in terms of a legitimate sleeper.  The more obvious sleepers turn up in seemingly every one of these articles all of sudden making them overvalued or at least just fairly priced sapping the value.  I am not here to bash sleeper articles as I have done them for the last five or six years whether here or at the various outlets I have worked for in the past.  I wanted to try a different approach this year.

Instead of worrying about sleeper label and pretending like we are pulling a fast one on our leaguemates, let’s just look at some guys I like for 2011.  These aren’t necessarily sleepers as many will be firmly entrenched on the radar of your opponents.  Nor are they necessarily breakout candidates, either.  After all, who really knows what defines a breakout?  It can mean 10 different things to 10 different people.

If you read the Starting Pitching Guide then you won’t be surprised by some of these guys as I made it clear how much I liked them there by suggesting you aggressively buy in or go the extra dollar or a host of other ways I used to convey my excitement for them.  Essentially if they are on this list, I like them more than their current projection meaning there is profit to gained.  There isn’t a uniform theme to this piece so let’s just get started with the names and you’ll see what I mean.

1. Cole Hamels – Seeing Hamels on a list like this might come as a surprise after all he doesn’t fall too far out of the top 10 starting pitchers in most drafts.  His inclusion is due to the fact that I have him as a top 5 guy for 2011.  He has Cy Young-quality stuff.  It was a travesty that his pitching led to just 12 wins, but that’s why judging pitchers on wins is foolish.  He is a bit overshadowed by teammates Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt, but I think he’s the best bet from a production-to-cost ratio.

2. Tommy Hanson – Like Hamels, this is a superstar in the making, but an overreaction to a 10-11 record from 2010 is depressing his value a bit.  Guys like Hamels and Hanson are the ones who will be my aces in 12-team mixed leagues because I refuse to pay the premium attached to the Lincecums and Felixes of the world.  If you’re looking for guys to take Ubaldian leaps from good to great, target Hanson and this next guy…

3. Chad Billingsley – Noticing a trend with these first three guys?  Billingsley also had a record that belied his true value going 12-11 for the second straight season masking his return to 2008’s 2.5 K/BB and a career best 0.4 HR/9.  Are you surprised to learn that he is just 26 years old?  In a standard 12-team mixer, I’m building my hitting base filling in some scarcity fields like shortstop (if I can get Hanley or Tulow), third base and outfield (remember, we need five) while taking advantage of the first base depth with those first 6-8 picks then pairing Hanson and Billingsley as my 1-2 punch.  My offense is going to be better than the guy who took Halladay in round 1 or 2 and my pitching is going to nearly on par and potentially better even if he paired a Sabathia or Weaver with him using yet another early round pick.

4. Brandon Morrow – I think he is getting a little trendy raising his value, but that doesn’t dissuade me.  Last year, I loved Gio Gonzalez and Jonathan Sanchez to make big leaps forward and they didn’t let me down.  Morrow is my guy of that class this year.  If he can shave a full walk off of his rate like Gonzalez did, he would be near 3.0 and if it didn’t cost him over two strikeouts in the process (as it did Gonzalez), he can be truly elite.

5. Ricky Romero – I love me some Blue Jays this year.  I will lift a quote from myself from the Guide re: Romero, “Romero meets the three criteria of Sporer Trifecta of Excellence (patent pending) with a strong strikeout rate (7.5 K/9), a truly elite groundball rate (55% career) and an above average changeup (though it was valued higher in ’09)”.  He has the stuff to take a step forward, but even a 2010 repeat has value at the cost I’m seeing for him in the two drafts I have already done and the expert leagues that have already taken place.

6. Hiroki Kuroda – A victim in the W-L column going just 11-13 last year despite a very strong skill set.  He has managed three straight sub-3.80 ERA seasons in the majors despite failing to reach even 70% LOB% let alone the league average 72% mark.  His age (36) undoubtedly scares some off, but nothing in his profile warrants fear (50%+ GB rate, 2.2 or better BB/9 and improving K/9 reached 7.3 last year).  He comes cheaper or at the same cost as the likes Matt Garza and Tim Hudson despite a more stable set of skills and even a tick of upside if that LOB% bumps up to average.

7. Edwin Jackson – Not much love out there for Jackson for some reason.  Maybe because it took him so long to begin paying any sort of dividends on his elite prospect status (4th in baseball in 2004) or because he teased and tantalized with so many false starts prior to that breakout year in Detroit back in 2009.  In Don Cooper I trust.  In 75 innings he righted Jackson’s season from the disaster it was in Arizona assisting Jackson to eight quality starts out of 11 including a run of three in which he struck out 11, 10 and 11.  I think Cooper and the Sox will finally extract the best out of Jackson for a full season returning a sharp profit on his current value.

8. James McDonald – This is the third year of me driving the McDonald Bandwagon.  He’s just getting going after a trade to the Pirates finally got him into a rotation so I’m not going anywhere now.  He went for $4 in NL Tout Wars over the weekend.  He is the kind of endgame play that can yield $10+ dollars of profit and be integral to a championship run.  Frankly I’m surprised he was so cheap as he has popped up on a lot of sleeper lists this offseason, much to my chagrin.

9. Jordan Zimmermann – He got a nice little 71-inning (31 in the majors) tune up last year coming back from Tommy John Surgery displaying 99% of his velocity from 2009 (92 of 93 MPH) and posted some decent stats albeit in smallish sample.  I am quite intrigued by what he can do in a full season (though a full season this year may mean  approx. 170 innings) having displayed strikeout an inning stuff throughout his minor league career as well as the 91 innings from his rookie year.  Injury returns are often a great source of profit and Zimmermann will be a prime candidate in this field for 2011.

Tomorrow’s portion of the list will feature nine names geared more towards single leagues and deeper mixed leagues.  That doesn’t mean they are entirely out of play for 10 and 12 mixed leaguers, especially if you have a reserve roster or taxi squad, but a lot of those leagues will have several of these guys on the waiver wire after the draft.

Ed. Note – if you’re wondering where Dan Haren is on this list, I figured he was too obvious to include.  If you’ve been reading my work at all this offseason, participated in the chat I hosted a few weeks back or talked with me via Twitter, you know how much I love this guy for 2011 (and beyond for that matter).  He is an unheralded ace with one of the best and most stable skills profiles in all of baseball.  He was tied with Max Scherzer as the 6th most expensive starter in AL Tout Wars ($20), a bargain in my book.  I have him 3rd-best in the AL behind Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester, just ahead of Justin Verlander.

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Wednesday: 03.16.2011

Save Opportunities According to Team Performance

This will serve as the 3/16 Daily Dose

There may not be a more polarizing subject in terms of how to approach it in fantasy drafts than relief pitching.  Some hold firmly to the mantra of “Don’t Pay for Saves” while others advocate doubling up on stud closers as early as the 4th and 5th rounds.  Still others play it by ear and kind of mix the two nabbing a reliable guy in the 7th/8th round and supplementing him with upside plays who might get saves, low end guys with the job right or punting a second one altogether and playing the wire during the season.

I think a lot of league variables go into deciding which is best for you in your setup.  One adage that always strikes me is the discounting of closers on worse teams (regardless of talent) because “they will get fewer opportunities” than the guys in better overall situations.

That isn’t an outlandish statement taken at face value.  It makes very good sense in a practical manner, but there have been several beliefs in baseball that seem viable enough on the surface and are accepted as truisms until further review blows them out of the water.  This one has always struck me as one that might not hold up against the numbers after digging into it.  So I decided to do the digging.

I just thought that with at least 65 wins per team each year, even the low end closers were getting enough opportunities to convert a healthy number of saves on par with those on the best teams.  Also, a worse team is likely playing closer games and a lot more of their 65 wins are probably coming down to the wire as opposed to those of a 90-win ballclub.   Essentially, I was worried that the disparity in opportunities between the best and worst teams may have been overstated.

Conversely, a team winning 87-90 games and up is likely to have a much better entire bullpen than the bottom feeders lending credence to original theorem because they wouldn’t blow leads in the 6th-7th-8th innings leading up to their stopper.  So there’s a balance between the good teams winning by 4+ runs more often against their overall better bullpen holding otherwise tenuous leads in the middle innings more frequently than the lesser teams thus creating more chances for their closer.

What do the numbers tell us?

Win Percentage

(The data set used is from 2005 through 2010.)

Let’s take a look at the average save opportunities on a real basic level of win percentage split between teams over .500 and teams under .500:

Win Percentage Data Pts Avg. SVO
.500+ Win Pct. 95 62
sub-.500 WP 85 58

On a macro level, the theory holds true that closers on better teams will indeed average more attempts.  The four attempt split isn’t drastic, but again this is a high level view so I’m not sure it tells us all we need to know.

Sticking with this split for another moment, how do things look from a conversion rate standpoint?

Win Percentage Blown Opps Close Rate
.500+ Win Pct. 1774 5919 70%
sub-.500 WP 1797 4895 63%

This goes back to the point I made above in support of the theorem that the better bullpens as a whole will generate more leads for closers thus leading to more saves.  We see a stark difference in the split here with the sub-.500 teams not only blowing more saves, but doing so with more than a 1,000 fewer opportunities.

Wins

Getting a bit more granular now, let’s look at how things breakdown at four different levels going by 10s until 70 and then using sub-70 as one level:

Wins Data Pts Avg. SVO
90-100 41 64
80-89 61 61
70-79 48 59
<69 30 55

Now we are really seeing where a good surrounding team can make a significant difference opportunity edge.  This only makes Joakim Soria’s two 40+ save seasons all the more impressive considering how much his team hamstrung him.  He has closed out 91% of his saves for his career and was at a 93% clip in the two 40+ seasons.

Yet another step down gives us our best look at how things stratify within the standings:

Wins Data Pts Avg. SVO
92-100+ W 31 64
87-91 W 32 62
82-86 W 27 61
76-81 W 31 59
70-75 W 29 59
69 or fewer W 30 55

The conclusion to this point fully supports the basic theory that closers on better teams (or perceived to be better since we can’t know how the season will play out) are likely to receive more opportunities from their team than those at or near the bottom of the standings.

I am thinking of doing a part 2 of this piece.  I want to take a look at things at the player level.  These numbers so far aren’t completely useless, they confirm an adage that has been in play for some time, but they also take into account all save opportunities including those blown by the non-closer before the 9th inning.

What can individual data tell us about this adage?  It would stand to reason, based on what we have seen so far, that guys like Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan should be getting more opportunities than Soria or someone like Chad Cordero when he was in Washington.  Is that how it plays out or do we see opportunities tied more to team type where someone like Brian Wilson notches more opps than a Rivera because his team not only wins, but plays closer games because they aren’t led by their offense?

For now while we do have evidence that the better teams offer more save opportunities on average, I would be careful not to use it as an a primary factor for closer selection.  I would still focus entirely on the skill of the pitcher well before this opportunity factor came into play.

Soria, who I continue to mention since he is the best example of a great closer on a terrible team, deserves to be at or near the top of the closer rankings for 2011 regardless of how pitiful the Royals will be this season.  Don’t take a less skilled player on a better team (Francisco Cordero, for example) just because they might notch upwards of nine more opportunities over the season (and there’s no guarantee for that again because this data takes all save opportunities into account).

Tomorrow: My Closer Tiers for 2011

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Closers, Daily Dose, Fantasy Baseball, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Monday: 03.14.2011

Spring Training Stats are WORTHLESS!

This will serve as the 3/14 Daily Dose

It seems that no matter how often it’s said (even if it’s every year), fantasy baseball owners still want to put stock into Spring Training stats.  I understand the enticement of them.  You spent a long, cold winter desperate for Hot Stove news, poring over the previous year’s stats and preparing a bit for the upcoming season.  Finally in late February you have some actual boxscores and with the real season just a month or so away, you get caught up in a frenzy and start to give meaning to the numbers before you.

Let me assure you that they are almost 100% meaningless.  In fact, the numbers themselves are 100% meaningless and the only instance where they have some significance is when someone is competing for a job.  If a marginal player or up & coming rookie believed not to be ready has a blistering spring to win a job, the gaudy stats aren’t a precursor of things to come during the season, rather they are merely a ticket to entry.  You should use previous career track to that point for a projection going forward, not the spring numbers.

Still articles and podcasts all over the internet are littered with lines about how well established player X is hitting so far or how poorly established pitcher B has been doing thus far.  Often people will then use confirmation bias in May or June for the few instances of players who continue to perform (for better or worse) as they did in spring, all the while ignoring the 100s of examples going against them.

For every Jose Bautista (.439, 5 HR, 11 RBI) there are four or five Shaun Marcums (8.10 ERA in 10 IP returning from TJS).  Bautista’s September should have been your indicator if you were looking for a sign of breakout, not Spring Training.  He hit 10 bombs with 21 RBIs in 125 plate appearances in games that mattered.

Pitching is especially deceptive.  Guys are just working on various things during their spring stints whether it’s building velocity, spinning a new pitch, refining their worst pitch, gaining stamina, developing their command, etc…  They don’t really care about the ERA and WHIP accumulated, nor should you.

Even strikeout-to-walk ratios can be misleading.  You will hear some back that as the most reliable spring stat for a pitcher, but it is just as prone to failure as the rest of them.  Rodrigo Lopez had a 4.3 K/BB in 19 innings with a 1.90 ERA.  He then posted a 5.00 ERA with 2.1 K/BB in 200 innings for the Diamondbacks.

Or what about last year’s breakout star, Ubaldo Jimenez?  If you kept yourself from getting too giddy about the 2.89 ERA and instead just trusted the strikeout-to-walk ration, you wouldn’t have been too heartened by his 1.3 K/BB mark (14 K, 11 BB in 19 IP).

Teammmates Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are couple of other interesting cases.  Nolasco had a ridiculous spring where he threw 25 brilliant innings striking out 21 and walking just one en route to a 1.78 ERA.  His skills were still solid throughout 2010 (4.5 K/BB), but he had a 4.51 ERA because of his 1.4 HR/9.  Sanchez meanwhile was trash throwing 18 ugly innings with a 7.00 ERA striking out a healthy 17 but also walking 11.  He then had the first full season of his career notching 32 starts posting a 3.55 ERA in 195 innings.  He had a 7.2 K/9 and 2.2 K/BB.

These examples are all admittedly cherry-picked as I peruse the 2010 Spring Training stats, but I could put together a 3,000-word piece further proving the point.  I stand firmly behind the notion that spring stats don’t mean anything.  What about last year’s spring HR leaders?

1. Chris Johnson – 8
2. John Bowker – 6
3. Aaron Hill – 6
4. Mike Napoli – 6
5. Sean Rodriguez – 6
6. Justin Upton – 6
7. Delwyn Young – 6
8. Ryan Zimmerman – 6
9. Jose Bautista – 5
10. Nelson Cruz – 5

You’ve got six established studs already known for their power, a guy whose spring made him a massively overrated commodity in fantasy drafts (Rodriguez) and three trashbags who were trashbags before their spring and then throughout the 2010 season (Johnson, Bowker and Young).

And like I said, I could easily keep going.  Don’t let quality spring numbers validate someone you’re high on or worse, dissuade from someone whose skills you love and expect a breakout from in 2011.  They are a non-factor and you really would be better off ignoring them completely if you can do it.

If you can’t contain yourself and must peruse them, use them as a tool against your opponents.  Talk up another nice spring from Delwyn Young (fewer HR, but .333 AVG in 2nd-most AB [42]) or mention how Mark Trumbo has had a great spring and will be ready to take over if Kendrys Morales isn’t 100% by Opening Day (hopefully wasting money on Trumbo and driving Morales’ cost down).

Or loudly discuss how Carlos Zambrano has continued his hot second half (which was a complete and utter worthless fluke) posting a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings so far (make no mention of his pathetic 6-to-4 K/BB).  And lastly, point out how Joe Blanton might have to replace Cole Hamels in that famed Fantastic Four for Philly because Hamels has been getting rocked with a 4.61 ERA.  Then promptly buy Hamels and enjoy a Cy Young season.

Trust skills, especially for established stars.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Spring Training, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 3 Comments »

Thursday: 03.10.2011

National League Pitching Prospects List

This will serve as the 3/10 Daily Dose

It’s time for my prospect rankings for each league and I want to throw out a few points before I get to today’s National League list:

o   I’m new to prospecting.  This is my first ranking of prospects as I’ve spent the last two years getting better at it before finally diving in this year.  Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, John Sickels, Jason Collette, the BA folks (Jim Callis, Aaron Fitt, John Manuel, etc…) and Adam Foster are all much more seasoned, just to name a handful whose work I enjoy.  I stand 100% behind the work, but this isn’t yet an area of expertise for me.  I wouldn’t necessarily be eager to suggest anything is an area of “expertise” for me, but I’m much more in my element discussing major leaguers right now, but I want to get better at prospecting so it’s time to start ranking.

o   I have seen a handful of these guys live, though the bulk of my experience with them comes from reading extensively and watching video online.

o   There aren’t individual player capsules here, those are all in the Starting Pitcher Guide.

o   The ceiling is a best-case scenario as I see it.

o   The ranking combines the best-case scenario with how likely they are to reach it.  This means someone might project with a higher ceiling, but be less likely to reach it and thus rank below someone with a lower ceiling who is closer to it.

o   This doesn’t slant toward 2011.  It’s all encompassing.  In other words, don’t use it in your re-draft fantasy leagues and get upset with me if Arodys Vizcaino doesn’t throw 120 innings for you later this summer.  It’s meant more for leagues with minor league rosters of any size and dynasty leagues.

RK Player TEAM ETA Ceiling
1 Julio Teheran ATL 2012 1
2 Jameson Taillon PIT 2014 1
3 Mike Minor ATL 2010 2
4 Jarrod Parker ARI 2011 1
5 Shelby Miller STL 2012 1
6 Simon Castro SD 2011 1
7 Jordan Lyles HOU 2011 2
8 Jenrry Mejia NYM 2010 1
9 Randall Delgado ATL 2012 1
10 Tyler Matzek COL 2013 1
11 Zach Lee LAD 2013 1
12 Casey Kelly SD 2012 2
13 Trey McNutt CHC 2012 1/Closer
14 Arodys Vizcaino ATL 2013 1
15 Trevor May PHI 2013 1
16 Stetson Allie PIT 2014 1/Closer
17 Matt Harvey NYM 2013 1
18 Zack Wheeler SF 2013 1
19 Brandon Beachy ATL 2010 3
20 Jarred Cosart PHI 2014 2
21 Christian Friedrich COL 2011 2
22 Tyler Skaggs ARi 2013 2
23 Chad James FLO 2013 2
24 Cory Luebke SD 2010 3
25 Brody Colvin PHI 2014 1
26 AJ Cole WAS 2014 2
27 Chris Withrow LAD 2012 2
28 Rubby de la Rosa LAD 2013 1
29 Brad Hand FLO 2012 3
30 Mike Foltynewicz HOU 2014 2
31 Luis Heredia PIT 2014 1
32 Chad Bettis COL 2014 3
33 Jesse Biddle PHI 2014 2
34 Juan Urbina NYM 2014 2
35 Jay Jackson CHC 2011 3
36 Lance Lynn STL 2011 3
37 Juan Nicasio COL 2013 2
38 Sammy Solis WAS 2012 3
39 Aaron Miller LAD 2012 3
40 Hayden Simpson CHC 2013 2
41 Carlos Martinez STL 2014 1
42 Daryl Thompson CIN 2008 3
43 Ethan Martin LAD 2013 2
44 David Holmberg ARI 2014 3
45 JJ Hoover ATL 2012 3
46 Pat Corbin ARI 2013 3
47 Mark Rogers MIL 2010 3
48 Tyrell Jenkins STL 2015 2
49 Bryan Morris PIT 2011 3
50 Brad Boxberger CIN 2012 3

I’ll be hosting a chat soon to discuss both this and more of the Starting Pitching Guide. Plan for next Thursday, but I’ll definitely post the details ahead of time. In the meantime you can reach me on Twitter or Facebook if you have questions about this list.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Daily Dose, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Off-Season, Predictions, Prospects, Starting Pitchers, Strategy | 7 Comments »

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Tuesday: 03.8.2011

Baseball Podcast Recommendation List

This will serve as the 3/8 Daily Dose

I grew up loving sports radio.  I used to listen to WDFN in Detroit all the time and eventually I began calling in.  The evening show in Detroit was hosted by a guy named Mega Man Ike Griffin and I loved the show.  I would write down all of my points, wait on hold for 30+ minutes and then deliver my thoughts in 1-2 minute spurts almost nightly.

One of my best sports radio memories was going to an on-site of Griffin’s show with my mom, best friend and sister.  Detroit Lions defensive end Robert Porcher was a guest and they had a Porcher-related trivia question for his tickets at the upcoming game against the Packers.  You had to name the mascot of Porcher’s alma mater, South Carolina State.  I instantly raised my hand despite the fact that I really didn’t have a clue what the answer was for this question.

I knew South Carolina was the Gamecocks, but that knowledge would be useless to me here.  Thankfully my mom was on hand.  It was her idea to just guess Bulldogs, seeing as it was a popular enough nickname that we might get it right.  And we sure did!  A few weeks later I was sitting 7th row in Porcher’s seats enjoying an excellent game that the Lions won (it was pretty rare back then, too).

We moved to Harlingen, TX when I was 14 and it took me a while to even find the lone sports talk radio station there.  For the years I lived there (3, sophomore-senior years of high school) it was purely an affiliate with no local stuff.  That made sense as there wasn’t a pro or even a viable college team anywhere in the area so there was no real need for a local flavor for the national stuff.  Might as well just stick with the pros.  We had Sporting News Radio then Fox Sports Radio followed finally by ESPN Radio.

I listened to it a lot in high school.  My dad and I would listen every day when he drove me to school and I would listen on summer nights when I stayed up late playing baseball simulators online (Jeez, I was [am?] a dork!).  Just like when I was in Detroit, I loved to call in.  Sometimes I’d wait even longer on the national shows, especially during peak hours, but I had my handy notes and an inexplicable amount of patience just so I could be heard.  I’d get most excited when I could actually respond to the host’s response instead of saying my initial piece and then having to listen to them offline.

I have taken the long way of showing how far back my love for sports talk goes with the point being that I didn’t just happen upon podcasts.  After loving sports talk radio for years, podcasts were a natural step in the process.  First off, the local stuff here in Austin isn’t very good even with two stations now.  Secondly, I cannot stand the fact that it feels like 43 minutes of every hour is commercial-laden.  So when I discovered podcasts were essentially commercial-less sports talk radio, I was immediately hooked.  Not only did they cut out my least favorite part of sports radio, but the content is often much better, too.

This all leads to my podcast recommendation list.  I listen to sports-related podcasts almost exclusively with a few general topic ones sprinkled in, but for the sake of this list, I’m going to whittle it down to baseball only.  There are different types and formats here so I’m sure there is something for everyone.  Or at least everyone who enjoys listening to baseball talk on some level.

By the way, if there is something missing on this list that you think needs to be a part of it, please don’t hesitate to leave a comment or hit me on Twitter because I’m always up to give a podcast a shot.

(UPDATED: MAY 23rd-Podcasts added and some commentary to previously listed podcasts has been added, too.  That commentary can be found in italics at the end of the original write up.)

FanGraphs Audio – Mix the usually sharp insights of FanGraphs.com analysts with the irreverent wit of host Carson Cistulli and it’s a winning combination.  Cistulli also brings in non-FanGraphs guests which only improves the show.  Check out a recent episode with player Matt Antonelli and I dare you not to become a fan of his almost instantly.  Oh and while it may not be for everybody, I for one love the intro music with Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass.  Yes, I even bought it on iTunes.  It’s called “The Charmer” and it’s available for a scant $0.99, iTunes giftcard FTW!

As for frequency of the show, I think it will ramp it up as the season gets nearer.  There were four in February and there were two right off the bat in March, so while they don’t keep a regular schedule I’d expect four-five per month during the season.  It checks in between 35 and 50 minutes per show.

MLB.com Fantasy 411 – This is one of the first shows I started listening to years ago.  It used to be a daily show that could be podcasted, but it has evolved into a television show on the MLB Network that will likely start soon and I believe runs 4:30-5:00 (new time!) 1:30 PM central when it’s not preempted and podcast-only.  I think they podcast most episodes, but like ESPN’s PTI, it’s better to watch since it’s a show with graphics and highlights.  Still, hosts Mike Siano and Cory Schwartz will do an episode every once in a while that is podcast only.  Great content and analysis with humor thrown is what you can expect to find on this show.  I would definitely keep it in your iTunes feed, but also set your DVR to record daily.

Baseball America Podcast – Attention prospect mavens and wannabe prospect mavens, this is your podcast.  It runs often with a college rundown focusing on the Top 25 each week, draft podcasts throughout May and prospect roundup episodes all throughout the season.  Of course they do top 100 prospect stuff around this time each year (which they ran back on Feb. 23rd with the recent list), too.

They stay busy in the offseason as well with 18 podcasts since the season ended through today and if you want to only count mid-October to mid-February as kind of the dead period, 14 of the 18 came in that 4-month timeframe.  Time fluctuates based on the topic.  They are usually at least 30 minutes, but bigger topics stretch past an hour (top 100 coverage, draft report cards, signing deadline, etc…).

If you don’t have time to subscribe and digest all the fantastic writing on their site and in the bi-weekly (I believe) magazine, then this is a great substitute.  If you do subscribe to the site and/or the mag, this is the perfect supplement for your commute, dog walks or whenever you like to listen to podcasts.

The Jonah Keri Podcast – This one isn’t purely baseball, but it skews baseball enough to be included.  I’ve already recommended this in a previous Daily Dose, so I won’t just rehash everything again.  It’s a great podcast that has quickly become one of my favorites.  Keri reels in brilliant guests weekly (oftentimes more than once a week) and discusses a range of topics touching sports, pop culture, technology and the writing profession among others.  Baseball and college hoops seem to be his favorite sports with the podcast leaning toward the former thus far.  As he is Canadian, he also likes hockey a good bit and isn’t afraid to do a full episode on it either.  As a native Detroiter, I like hockey plenty but the coverage is scant here in Austin, TX.

The show is a must-listen for anyone who likes podcasts and likes sports.

Up & In: The Baseball Prospectus Podcast – If you’re not a fan of long-form podcasts, then you’re out on this one from the jump.  They routinely run two hours and sometimes push the two and a half hour mark.  Hosts Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks are the opinionated minds behind this operation and if you’re easily offended, you may want to pass.  So now that I’ve given you two reasons not to listen, here are two reasons you would want to listen.  The long-form is awesome to me so it’s a plus in my book, but I know it can go either way toward attracting or dissuading listeners.  And the fact that Goldstein and Parks are direct with their opinions is another plus for me that can put off some.

They are prospect guys from the scouting side of the ledger when it comes to their baseball knowledge, but they understand stats and incorporate at times (they aren’t afraid to dismiss them entirely, though, either).  I think they give deep and interesting perspectives on a wide range of topics in the game and that’s what drew me in from the start (I’m a point-9’er).  They segment the show so if you only want the baseball portion or only want, as Kevin calls it, the goofy stuff, then you can pick the spots you want with his handy timed segment guide attached to each episode.

Sometimes I find their music snobbery a bit overbearing as it seems they like some of the stuff just because it’s not popular.  Honestly a lot of it is utter trash to me.  But that’s my opinion and I don’t mind that they like it.  I just think they should be the same way about mainstream music they don’t like… just move on.  No one cares that you don’t like it.  That aside, the baseball talk is plentiful and rich enough to easily overlook the slight annoyance that their condescension toward most things popular triggers (Jason does make a good point that they can’t be pegged as hating all things popular as he loves the Beatles more than anything).

If you want good baseball talk, great guests and colorful language, then you need to be listening to this show.

ESPN Fantasy Focus: Baseball – Another ESPN offering, Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz are well-known in the industry far beyond the reaches of this podcast.  They also both play in Tout Wars leagues, too.  As for the show, it appeals to a more broad fantasy baseball player.  The standard league they discuss is a 10-team mixed which just isn’t my cup of tea.  That said, there is still some good discussion of players that range beyond standard league value and it’s worth a listen.

At times they can veer off topic a bit too much for my liking, but they are upfront that it’s a part of the show so if you don’t like it, it’s more of a “you problem” than something with them.  It’s a fun listen and a worthwhile way to pass 30-40 minutes a day.  I’ve also heard from some of my friends that both guys are really cool in person so even if you don’t love their on-air personas, they seem to be relatively well-liked guys within the industry.

I always keep them on the iTunes list.  I love when they debate and you get both sides of a player, though.  That, to me, is very useful.  Give it a shot and see how they sit with you.  Plus, the theme song is awesome.  Gets in my head every day and I don’t mind.  Update 5/23 – This is arguably their best season, in my opinion. They’ve done a great job branching out their coverage from just 10-team league-relevant information.  They’ve got some funny segments that they have added and they have just the right amount of silly stuff, again in my opinion.  It’s been a must-listen for me this season.  

Beyond the Box Score Podcast* – Another recent feature of the Podcast Recommendation of a past Daily Dose, the BTBS podcast is quickly climbing the list as one of my favorites.  It’s another long-form podcast (1.5-2 hours) filled with guests and plenty of banter between hosts Dave Gershman and Matt Klassen.  I’ve told the two before that I think sometimes Matt steamrolls Dave a bit too much and comes across too eager to get his point across, but they let me know that Matt was encouraged to speak up when he saw fit.  But they are just seven episodes in (eight should come out today sometime) so they are still getting into their groove.

Gershman is booking great guests and they usually have a couple per episode, but even a guest-less episode with just Gershman and Klassen riffing on a variety of topics would be worth listening to as well.  I’m not a fan of the bumper music between segments (The Bare Necessities), but something like that isn’t going to drive me away from a show or else I’d almost never listen to Up & In.  Update 5/23 – Dave wins, the bumper music has grown on me. 

* (Now in iTunes!)

ESPN Baseball Today – I’ve been listening to this show since it started waaaaaaay back in 2006 when Alan Schwarz was hosting.  I absolutely loved the show when Schwarz hosted it.  That’s nothing against the hosts since, but he was just fantastic.  There was a lull last season and I wasn’t listening much as I didn’t love Seth Everett partnering with Eric Karabell, but Karabell has added Keith Law and contributor turned co-host Mark Simon for the 2011 season making it a must-listen once again.

ESPN likes to keep their podcasts under an hour and most check in around 30 minutes.  Baseball Today tops 30 most days, but rarely goes much longer than 40.  I think it’s probably the wheelhouse amount of time for most.  With Law and Simon joining Karabell, I’d love if they went long-form for an hour-plus a day, but that’s not going to happen so I’ll have to take my 30-40 minutes.  Update 5/23 – I was looking a lot more forward to this earlier in the preseason, but Law’s overwhelming negativity, which comes across as shtick at this point, is just too much.  It is making it hard to listen to on some days.  You literally expect him to take the negative angle to every single topic.  I think Karabell worries about what Law thinks a little too much, too.  He also worries way too much about going into “extra innings”, which is over an allotted time set by his producer Podvader.  First off, most people don’t mind if pods run long, but more to the point, settle that off-air with your co-host and producer.  Considering that it happens more often than not, what is the point of mentioning it at this point? 

Baseball Daily Digest – My good friend Joel Henard hosts a twice-a-week show with one as a general baseball show with co-host Albert Lang and the other covering his favorite team, the Chicago White Sox, with co-host Mike Rudd.  I only listen to the general one every week, but since I like Joel’s style so much I will tune into the White Sox one every once in a while, too.  Joel also just finished his excellent Fantasy February series where he had several guests from the industry to cover a host of topics.  This is a passion of Joel’s and that comes through in the shows.  They are hosted at Blog Talk Radio so they are hour-long timeslots and I highly recommend tuning in, especially because sometimes you can hear yours truly doing a special co-hosting spot.

Betting Dork w/Gil Alexander – Another niche podcast, the topic of this one is pretty obvious in the title and I haven’t been listening to it long, but I really liked the football betting analysis and Gil’s favorite sport to bet on is baseball so I’m anticipating liking this even more as we approach the season.  To be honest, I don’t even bet much these days, but I just enjoy hearing him and his guests uncover angles and discuss trends.  Sometimes he just has guests on talk about a particular sport without the betting angle.  He does that with Marc Spears of Yahoo! to talk about basketball and I’m hoping he has baseball guests on like that during the summer.

Baseball HQ Radio – If you like the insightful numbers-based analysis of the BaseballHQ.com writing staff, then chances are you will enjoy this podcast.  It’s essentially an hour-long version of the website.  Host Patrick Davitt starts by bringing on Harold Nichols and Matt Beagle to discuss the NL and AL, respectively.  They each cover a handful of guys in their league going into the second and third level of their stats and giving you the scoop on whether they are worth owning, trading or acquiring in your league.  After that Davitt has on his guest of the week which is someone from the fantasy baseball industry (sometimes part of the HQ family) and they have a 20-30 minute chat.

The main guest spot is followed by weekly segments that include a prospect round up, Beagle on again for Market Pulse, a new segment on keeper leagues and finally Ron Shandler’s Master Notes to close out the show.  It’s different from a lot of the shows on this list, but I find it enjoyable and it is definitely ripe with worthwhile information.

Broken Bat Single – Right off the bat, this is a Kansas City Royals-themed show so if you have no interest in the goings on of that team, then you probably think that you don’t want to listen to this show.  I would encourage you to at least give it a shot if you’re a fan of baseball podcasts.  I don’t have great interest in the Royals (as y’all probably know, I’m a Tigers fan), but I do love good baseball talk and that’s what Nick Scott offers on his show.  Scott books strong guests (I really enjoyed the episode with the GM of the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the AA team for KC) and covers the team top to bottom while also mixing in some general MLB and non-KC Central Division coverage as well.  The shows run an hour to an hour-plus, but like all of these long-form ones, it is easy to pick up where you left off if you can’t listen to it all at once.

The Detroit Tigers Podcast – While we are on the topic of team-specific podcasts, I will plug one for my favorite team.  Ian Casselberry and Mike McClary essentially do what Broken Bat Single does only for the Tigers, so of course I love it.  Again, if you’re not into team-centric shows, then you’re not going to like this, BBS or Joel’s White Sox show (it’s purely coincidental that all three are AL Central teams).

Baseball Press Podcast – Are you looking for a quicker baseball fix?  The Baseball Press Podcast is right up your alley.  The guys over at BaseballPress.com over a sub-30 minute (most of the time) covering the goings on of the game around once a week during the season.  They are in the midst of their team preview episodes right now with guests from various blogs and other outlets to talk about the team of the night.

CBS Fantasy Baseball Podcast – I used to really dislike this podcast because one of the co-hosts was just insufferable.  I couldn’t listen to his trite pet theories and terrible analysis so I had to abandon ship on this one.  A few weeks ago when I was going through iTunes looking at stuff, I came across it again and decided to look through and see what new episodes they had done.  I saw they had started their positional preview episodes and this person was no longer a part of the show so I gave it a shot again.  I’m glad I did because it’s pretty enjoyable.  A three man booth with essentially a mediator and then the two analysts going back and forth, they went in depth at every single position and have followed that up with episodes dedicated to sleepers, breakouts and busts.

In season they do a few different shows each week: the weekly preview, the most added/dropped players and a recap/injury show on either Monday or Tuesday and sometimes both.  Episodes vary from 30-50 minutes long depending on what they need to cover.  They won’t cut time if the topic is meaty, but they won’t fluff it up if there isn’t anything to talk about, either (a mid-September add/drop show was 15’ long).  This is just hardcore fantasy analysis and it’s pretty enjoyable.

Bloomberg Sports’ Behind the Numbers – I really enjoyed this show during the season, but there hasn’t been a new episode since October 15th so I’m not sure if it will be back for season 2.  Last year it didn’t start until March 26th, so I won’t write it off for 2011 until April.  I’d put it in your iTunes for now and just wait and see.  They get great guests and it’s a show that generally checks in under 30 minutes, if I remember correctly.  Update 5/23: A few random episodes popped up a few weeks ago, but only one would download and it was a preview episode that included a Jonah Keri interview.  I guess this isn’t coming back full-time this year. 

CBS Baseball Podcast – This podcast in its current iteration as Ear on Baseball is just five episodes old and I’ve only heard two.  One was with Kevin Goldstein, who believes C. Trent Rosencrans (the host) and others with recent baseball podcasts have lifted their format from Up & In, and the other was with some band called The Baseball Project that I just couldn’t get through.  The guys in the band sounded nice enough, but it wasn’t something I was particularly interested in and I jumped to a few spots to see if it was the entire episode or just part of it and it was the whole thing.

I realize Goldstein is kinda joking with his friend when he says he stole the format, but he’s also kinda serious.  I didn’t see anything from Goldstein’s format in Rosencrans’ show.  Nor did Goldstein make up the format for long-form podcasts.  They have a very enjoyable show that I have liked since it came out, but podcasts were out loooong before Up & In started!

At this point, I’d have to give this show an incomplete grade because I’ve only really listened to one full episode.  Update: 5/23 – They did a handful of strong episodes February-April, but then there hasn’t been an update since April 7th so I guess it’s done. 

The New Additions: (May 23rd)

The Baseball Show with Rany & Joe – Rany Jazayerli and Joe Sheenan are long-time friends and industry stalwarts when it comes to baseball.  As Joe tells it, they used to have extended phone calls where they would just talk about everything that was going on in baseball so given the rise in podcasts, they decided to just start recording these calls and sharing them with the world.  If you enjoyed the writing of these two back at Baseball Prospectus or currently enjoy them either at Rany on the Royals or in Sheehan’s Newsletter, then you’ll definitely like this show.

Sports Poscast with Joe Posnanski – I was absolutely thrilled to learn that Joe Posnanski was starting a podcast and 11 episodes in, it has not disappointed.  It isn’t a pure baseball podcast, but there is enough baseball content for it to crack the list especially as we inch closer to summer.  He has done three episodes (technically four as one was a two-parter) with the creator of the best show on TV, Michael Schur (Parks & Rec.), including one where they did a fantasy draft of baseball books which was amazing.  He’s also had Bob Costas, Bill James, Ian O’Connor (who recently released a book about Derek Jeter) and Giants announcer Duane Kuiper for his baseball-centric episodes.  The only no-baseball episode was with Kevin Harlan.  This is quickly becoming one of my favorites.

Hot Clicks Podcast with Jimmy Traina – Another one that isn’t all baseball, but eminently listenable regardless of the guest.  I discovered the podcast this weekend and listened to all nine episodes.  The Logan Morrison and C.J. Wilson episodes are must-listens from a baseball perspective.  I also enjoyed the James Andrew Miller (co-author of Those Guys Have All the Fun: Inside the World of ESPN which releases May 24th), Erin Andrews and Chris Cooley episodes quite a bit.  If you enjoy Traina’s twice-daily link roundup at Sports Illustrated, you will probably like his podcast.

Bizball Radio – If you enjoy Maury Brown’s great work on the business of sports network (and specifically baseball) then you will no doubt enjoy this podcast where Brown speaks with some of the most intriguing guests in the sports business field.  Like some of these additions, it isn’t all baseball all the time especially with a topic like the NFL Lockout to speak about, but all except one of his guests (George Atallah from the NFLPA) was either mostly baseball talk or at least some within their episode.

Podcast To Be Named Later – Jason Collette and company from DRaysBay.com have resurrected this Tampa Bay-centric podcast.  Like the other team-focused podcasts on the list, it is best if you are a fan of that team, but if you are a diehard baseball fan in need of more podcasts then you will enjoy listening to this roundtable discussion of one of the league’s best teams.

Fantasy Pros 911 Podcast – Rich Wilson, Tony Cincotta and Tim McLeod get together every Sunday night for an hour to talk about the week that was and the one coming up in fantasy baseball.  They cover plenty of topics in their hour-plus (the first hour is always live on BlogTalkRadio while anything additional bleeds over onto the podcast only) with information for all fantasy players regardless of league size and format.  They engage their chatroom very well, too, and also respond to emails the following week.  The sound quality leaves a little to be desired, but I believe the only way to go truly live on BTR is over the phone which precludes them from recording on Skype and then posting a cleaner recording to the site.  I might trade the live aspect for better sound, but that would take away their interactive with the chatroom which is a key aspect to the show.

Posted in Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Podcast, Radio Show | 19 Comments »

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