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Friday: 06.24.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 12 The Weekend

Some quick picks for the weekend

SATURDAY:

John Danks (CHW v. WAS) – In three June starts, he’s 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 7 K/9.  Take out the butt-kicking he suffered in Toronto at the end of May and he has a 3.31 ERA since April 30th.  He’s coming back around and this is a guy who should be owned across all formats.

Justin Masteron (CLE @ SF) – Masterson’s Achilles heel is lefties and SF only has three: Brandon Crawford, Aubrey Huff & Nate Schierholtz.  Crawford is an all-leather rookie in there for his defensive chops at short while neither Huff nor Schierholtz has been able to post an OPS better than .700 this year.

Jason Vargas (SEA “at” FLO) – Florida is only the home team in that they will bat last, but the game is in Safeco where Vargas has allowed a .650 for his career and .631 on the year. 

SUNDAY:

Doug Fister (SEA “at” FLO) – Taking full advantage of the U2 concert that forced this series to Seattle, I’ll go with another Mariners pitcher who takes advantage of his home park.  Fister allows a .68 OPS at home and just a  .590 OPS against right-handers.  The Marlins have just one regular lefty in their lineup (Logan Morrison) and the only other one who could start is the non-threatening Dewayne Wise.

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Sunday: 06.19.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 12 Monday-Friday

Another big week for Trolling the Wire that was actually the best week yet.  With a 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 4.7 K/BB in 70 innings, this week’s waiver wire pickups set four new records.  Only the K/9 failed to set a new high checking in at 7.9, just below the 8.2 record set in weeks 5 & 6.

I don’t mean to be boastful, but setting these records in week 11 is an impressive feat.  When you think about it, the records should have been easier to set earlier in the season when better guys were available.  As we sit 11 weeks in, a lot of rosters have multiple guys on their staff that they got from the wire, but there was still enough talent for us to better our teams via streaming.

Let’s see what week 12 brings…

MONDAY:

Jake Arrieta (BAL @ PIT) – He might finally start to be getting on a roll and he heads to Pittsburgh to face a below average lineup in a nice ballpark.

Gavin Floyd (CWS v. CHC) – He is right there on the fringe between just above and just below average which makes him a perfect matchup play.  The Cubs don’t have a particularly scary lineup and Floyd’s 3.0 K/BB skills should play well against them.

Juan Nicasio (COL @ CLE) – With a 3.6 K/BB powered by a 1.9 BB/9, Nicasio is making a nice impression out of the gate in his major league debut.  I was a fan of his coming into the season and though he made it to the big leagues faster than I expected, it appears to be the right call.

TUESDAY:

Dillon Gee (NYM v. OAK) – Gee at home (1.77 ERA v. 4.15 road) against an inferior offense is an auto-start.

James McDonald (PIT v. BAL) – Trolling has been on the McDonald for most of 2011 and while he burned us a bit early on, he has posted a 3.04 ERA in 10 starts since having a 10.12 ERA in his first four.

WEDNESDAY:

R.A. Dickey (NYM v. OAK) – Struggled in his last start, but even including that he has a 2.48 ERA with 7.0 K/9 in the last month so let’s pick on the A’s two days in a row.

Rick Porcello (DET @ LAD) – If you take out blow up starts against Boston and in Colorado, he has a 1.93 ERA in the last month.  The Dodgers are nowhere near the Red Sox or Rockies so I expect to see the good Porcello here.

THURSDAY:

Brian Duensing (MIN @ SF) – His skills have been strong the last month (7.2 K/9, 3.0 K/BB) despite poor results.  Against the Giants in their spacious park, the results should finally start catching up.

FRIDAY:

Tim Stauffer (SD v. ATL) – Stauffer has been amazing this year, yet he’s criminally under-owned.  Of course I’m going to take him at home against a middling offense.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE @ SF) – Carrasco was essentially my AL-version of James McDonald coming into this year, a deep sleeper I thought would take a big step forward.  He got off to a slow start, like McDonald, but he’s got a 2.72 ERA in the last month spanning 40 innings.

Scott Baker (MIN @ MIL) – The gopheritis scares me a bit as I have been burned by Baker too many times, but it’s hard to argue with how well he has been pitching so let’s ride the hot hand, even against Milwaukee.

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Friday: 06.17.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 11 The Weekend

Quickly taking a look at the weekend Trolling picks…

SATURDAY:

Tim Stauffer (SD @ MIN) – Still massively under-owned for whatever reason even on the heels of back-to-back brilliant performances (15 IP, 0 ER w/13 K).  The Twins are playing better in June, but still have a below average team OPS.

Scott Baker (MIN v. SD) – Another under-owned arm that boggles my mind.  What more are people looking for?  He has 8.4 K/9, 3.4 K/BB and a 113 ERA+, he should be on a team permanently.  I realize pitching is deep this year, but not deep enough for guys like this to be on the wire.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE v. PIT) – Save his ugly first start of the year and a quick stint on the DL, he is fulfilling the promise I thought he had coming into with a 3.55 ERA since the 7 ER season debut.  He is understandably owned in fewer leagues, but definitely worth a matchup play against a modest offense.

SUNDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. LAA) – He’s a 2-start guy this week and I like him for both.  He offered a strong start on Tuesday against Atlanta (6.3 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 0 BB, W) and I think he can do even better against a putrid LA offense (league-worst .592 OPS in June).

Jeff Karstens (PIT @ CLE) – He gave Trolling users a gem last week and he is on a ridiculous hot streak so let’s ride the hot hand.  I wish he struck out more guys, but he walks nobody so it’s easier to swallow.

Results and Week 12 picks on Sunday.

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Sunday: 06.12.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 11 Monday-Friday

It was a big week for Trolling the Wire so I hope you took advantage this week.  In case you were curious, I do hop on board with my own recommendations and I used of eight of the 13 to sweep the pitching categories in my daily transaction head-to-head league.  Unfortunately, my hitting couldn’t hold a candle to Prince Fielder, David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury on the other ballclub so I took the split week.

Anyway, enough about my team, let’s see if I can help your teams again next week.  After back-to-back weeks of Trolling picks topping a 4.00 ERA, the bounce back bring a sub-3.00 ERA and a single week high of six wins.

MONDAY:

Randy Wolf (MIL @ CHC) – Strong skills (6.8 K/9, 2.2 K/BB), a weak opponent and a hot streak (2.59 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) in his last five starts makes him our only Monday start on a lean schedule.

TUESDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM @ ATL) – He has allowed more than 2 ER just twice in his last 10 starts.  In fairness, there is also a 6 R/2 ER outing in there, but even if you added back those four earned runs his ERA in that span would be 3.19 instead of the sparkling 2.63 we see.  Wasn’t striking out a lot of batters early on, but has fewer than five just once since April 30th, good for an 8.0 K/9 in 46 IP.

Bud Norris (HOU v. PIT) – Ownership rates dipped during rough stretch, but as I mentioned in Twidbits his strikeouts make him enticing even with an ERA that vacillates between slight above average to slightly below.

WEDNESDAY:

None – There are two borderline plays I could make, but they both against their split so I don’t want to force it.  If you’re desperate for a play for go with Chris Narveson or Dillon Gee, both on the road, but I can’t fully endorse them so don’t bark at me on Twitter if they fail.  Both are pitching very well, with Narveson having smoked St. Louis last time out and Gee knocking down the Pirates on the road, but they both excel at home so far this year so I’ll sit this one out.

THURSDAY:

James McDonald (PIT @ HOU) – I’ll quote my Sunday Twidbit to back J-Mc this week: “Horrid start buried James McDonald’s ERA (10.12 after 4 GS), but 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 & 2.0 K/BB in 51 IP (9 GS) since.”  Astros aren’t terrible offensively, but this is more of a vote for McDonald than it is picking on Houston.

Edwin Jackson (CWS @ MIN) – Back-to-back strong starts and solid record since his horrid April (5.86 ERA): 3.22 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB.  His 1.42 WHIP is ugly, but a .340 BABIP is driving that more than poor control which usually hurts Jackson.

FRIDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. SD) – Maddening up and down season so far this year to the point where it wouldn’t be surprising if somehow San Diego got to him on the heels of a complete game shutout against Texas.  I don’t think that will happen and I’m more than willing to play the favorable odds here, but some of the weird fluctuations in his performance this year have left me scratching my head.

Brad Hand (FLO @ TB) – This a pure odds play.  Tampa Bay has been terrible against southpaws this year (.675 OPS/22nd ranked, 60 runs/25th ranked) which is exactly the paw that Hand throws with so we’ll see if one of Florida’s best prospects can exploit a weakness and play on the Rays’ penchant for striking out against lefties (147/3rd most in MLB).

Weekend picks later this week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 06.6.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 10 Monday

I’ll post the rest later, but I’ve been quite busy at work today.  I wanted to get Monday’s picks out for leagues that still allow pick ups (namely ESPN ones).

Brian Matusz v. OAK

Scott Baker v. CLE

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Saturday: 06.4.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 9 The Weekend

I don’t usually post on Saturday, but I owe you all some spot starter picks!  I fell asleep early and was out like a light last night.  I finished my top 30 picks, then focused in entirely on my Tigers against the White Sox and wasn’t awake to see the end of the 6-4 loss.  So let’s get these out quickly and you still might be able to make a move:

SATURDAY:

Doug Fister (SEA v. TB) – I never bought in on Fister last year and was eventually proven right as he ended the season with a 4.11 ERA.  He just didn’t strikeout enough guys for my liking.  He has changed that so far this year with 6.0 K/9 in May and 6.2 for the season.  Combine that with a strong 2.0 BB/9 and this is an appealing skill set.  The M’s are somehow smoking the Rays early on in this series and it doesn’t get easier for the Rays facing Fister.

Dillon Gee (NYM v. ATL) – Not much is going right for the Mets this year, but Gee has been a bright spot for the Mets rotation and I like him at home (2.20 ERA in Citi) against the Braves.

SUNDAY:

Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. COL) – The strikeouts are on the decline a bit in his last three starts, but he has a 0.38 ERA at home despite 5.3 K/9.  He amps up the punchouts on the road (8.6) so if you need Ks, the trends say this might not be the best spot for him, but for a quality outing I’d go with him.

Erik Bedard (SEA v. TB) – His swan song on Trolling the Wire as his ownership rates continue to climb because owners are finally catching on.

James McDonald (PIT v. PHI) – He was positively brilliant in May (2.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 K/BB in 35 IP) and I think he can hold his own against the Phillies, especially at home (2.55 home ERA/6.49 road).  His offense faces Roy Halladay so a win might be tough to come by, but we don’t chase wins.

Results (need to rally this weekend!) and Week 10 picks tomorrow…

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Sunday: 05.29.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 9 Monday-Friday

Stupid ESPN scoreboard.  They told me Bartolo Colon was pitching on Sunday against Seattle.  Alas he did NOT, instead pitching on Monday while teammate CC Sabathia got the nod against the Mariners.  That little mishap cost this week’s set of picks the chance at a sub-4.00 ERA.  The week started off poorly with Colon allowing six in six against Toronto and his supposed counterpart for today, Jason Vargas, getting knocked around on Monday, too.

Chris Narveson was also torched on Tuesday, leaving the picks with a 10.93 ERA after just three starts.  It was smooth sailing from that point forward as the remaining nine starters posted a 2.33 ERA in 58 innings, but as I mentioned it just wasn’t enough to erase that early damage.  At least if you’re streaming in a head-to-head league, the picks down the stretch were much better than the rough start.

MONDAY:

Colon (NYY @ OAK) – It’s still a nice start against a weak offense in a friendly ballpark.

Ervin Santana (LAA @ KC) – The Royals offense has fallen back to the middle of the pack this month while Santana is getting into a groove.  He will still have that implosion from time to time that leaves his composite numbers right around league average.  I think this is a good spot for him.

Jason Hammel (COL @ LAD) – Hammel is something of an enigma as his first two years in Colorado saw some great skills paired with less-than-stellar ERA & WHIP totals not commensurate with those skills.  This year the skills have eroded a bit, but the ERA & WHIP totals are around what we’d have expected in those other two years.  I think his skills rise to where they were in 2009 and 2010 while holding firm or improving the ERA & WHIP, plus the Dodgers are an auto play-against team with their weak offense.

Prediction: Jo-Jo Reyes will break his no-win streak against Cleveland on Monday.  I like his skills a bit and could see him on Trolling at some point soon.  He’s been horrifically unlucky to this point.  For now, I’ll just predict a win for him snapping that ugly streak. 

TUESDAY:

Ryan Vogelsong (SF @ STL) – His ownership rates are on the rise, but he is still available in a ton of leagues for at least another week.  The skills are there with a  7.0 K/9 and 2.9 K/BB so keep riding the streak while it lasts.  With the rash of injuries hitting the pitching ranks of late, I’d hang onto Vogelsong for the time being.

Mike Minor (ATL v. SD) – He did well in last week’s start against a lame Pittsburgh Pirates offense and his reward is a start against the lowly San Diego Padres.  They’ve been improved from their awful April performance, but I’m still not afraid of them.  I really like Minor.  Things will get crowded once Brandon Beachy gets back, but I think Minor will perform well enough to make things difficult for the Braves brass.

Erik Bedard (SEA v. BAL) – Bedard is no longer available in many CBS leagues (84%), but he’s still widely available in ESPN (66%) and Yahoo! (44%) leagues, so we’ll throw him out for another week, but he also joins the Hold List.  He’s another guy who is probably being snapped up permanently a lot more given the spate of injuries that recently hit the game (Beachy, Josh Johnson and Wandy Rodriguez to name a few).

WEDNESDAY:

Chris Capuano (NYM v. PIT) – He has the one blowup in May (6 ER on 5/21), but otherwise he has allowed no more than 2 ER in his other four starts this month.  The blowup was at the Yankees where he allowed four home runs so it’s fair to say it’s an anomaly.  Best of all, he has 28 K in 29 innings this month.  This a nice start for him.

THURSDAY:

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS @ ARI) – He’s off to the Hold List this week as his ownership rates creep near 70% at two of the three outlets (Y! is the holdout) and I don’t want to keep recommending a guy who isn’t widely available.

Tim Stauffer (SD v. HOU) – His skill set this year is really nice.  He has kept most of his groundball gains from 2010 (53% after 55% last year) while adding strikeouts and cutting walks.  Meanwhile his BABIP, LOB% & HR/FB indicators point toward some favorable ERA headed his way cutting into the 3.60 he is currently toting.  I love him in a start against Houston, but that stupid, dumb offense of his might continue to cost him wins.

FRIDAY:

Danny Duffy (KC v. MIN) – Facing Texas twice and heading to Camden Yards, the rookie southpaw has acquitted himself well in the first three starts of his career all things considering.  There is nothing particularly special about his 4.11 ERA or 1.57 WHIP (10 BB in 15.3 IP), but the 8.2 K/9 is very nice and he seems to be getting better start-to-start as he gets his feet underneath him in his debut season.  He finally draws a favorable matchup and I think we could get our first glimpse of the high end ability this kid has in his future.

The weekend later this week…

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Friday: 05.27.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 8 The Weekend

The week started off pretty horribly so even though the last five starts have been gems, they have just been chiseling away at a bloated ERA caused by the first three guys trotted out there.  I’ve got four weekend picks to cover and perhaps they can keep the momentum going giving the group a good composite week.

SATURDAY:

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS v. SD) – After an up and down April, Zimmermann has thrown 25 innings with a 3.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while striking out 26 in four May starts, the last three of which have been on the road.  Now he gets a home bid against the putrid San Diego Padres offense making him a must-start.  He is still on a lot of league wires for some reason, but he is someone I really like for the remaining four months of the season so I’d consider hanging onto him in leagues where available.

Carlos Villanueva (TOR v. CHW) – He has been dealing this year for the Jays, mostly out of the pen, but got a start on Monday and looked very sharp against the Yankees.  He is a strikeout guy (26 in 29 IP, 5 in 5 on Monday) which can build a pitch count.  That combined with the fact that they are just starting to stretch him out could limit him to around six innings, but I think he will fare well.

Randy Wolf (MIL v. SF) – He was on fire earlier this year (2.39 ERA in 6 Apr. starts), but then cooled off with two poor starts at the beginning of May including one against the Padres.  He’s throwing well again of late and he completes his tour of the NL West (last three starts v. SD, COL & @LAD) with a shot against a weak Giants offense that recently lost their best player, catcher Buster Posey.

SUNDAY:

Bartolo Colon (NYY @ SEA) – He was knocked around earlier this week on my watch as was his opponent in this game, Jason Vargas.  They are a big part of why the composite numbers look so bad, but I’m willing to stand by Colon after a bad start.  It’s only second down start of the season and he still struck out eight so he can be trusted against the anemic M’s in Safeco.

 

Results and Week 9 picks on Sunday.

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Monday: 05.23.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 8 Tuesday-Friday

I am doing a great job at picking starters who end up involved in rainouts.  Of course, half the league gets rained out nightly so I guess that’s not too surprising.  Tuesday was a total washout with Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann getting wiped out, but I went back to the well with both on Sunday and it went quite well (14.3 IP, 2 ER, 8 K).

I pound this one home time and time and time again, but the week 7 Trolling picks accentuate perfectly just in case you still don’t believe: you cannot chase wins… ever.  Twelve starters threw 78 innings with a 2.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP yet netted just two wins.  TWO!  It wasn’t a necessarily an ill-begotten ERA, either, as the group had a solid if unspectacular 6.1 K/9, but a very strong 2.5 K/BB.

We will still aim for skills first and foremost, but hopefully we can pull a few more wins with this week’s picks.

MONDAY:  Found here.

TUESDAY:

Chris Narveson (MIL v. WAS) – He has spent most of May chiseling away at an ERA that was heavily damaged by a 7 ER in 2.3 IP outing, but now it’s at a very respectable 3.44 thanks to a really strong month.  Again, I know you can’t pick and choose starts, but if you remove that outlier, you see a 2.34 ERA in eight starts with a strong 7.9 K/9.  Of course, leave it in and the strikeout rate remains the same and the ERA above average, even in the very heavy pitching environment of 2011.

Charlie Morton (PIT v. ATL) – This is still a tough nut to crack with his just over 1 K:BB rate (1.12), but the insane groundball (62%) masks some of the K:BB shortcomings.  He has three really weird starts with five walks in each and just one or two strikeouts (five total), but he has a 3.50 ERA in 18.3 innings with two wins during the starts.  In his last two starts, he has five Ks in each with 14 and 17 groundballs, respectively.  He’s facing a team with 21st ranked OPS on the heels of losing one of their best hitters in Jason Heyward.  He has succeeded against much better teams including two complete games at Cincinnati (1 ER total).

WEDNESDAY:

James McDonald (PIT v. ATL) – He has really picked it up in May with a 3.18 ERA in 23 innings along with 24 strikeouts.  Still a little inconsistent, but the favorable matchup (6th-most Ks in MLB) helps.

Erik Bedard (SEA @ MIN) – I’ll simply reiterate my Sunday Twidbit on Bedard: “After posting an 8.56 ERA in first 3 starts, Erik Bedard has a 1.97 ERA & 0.97 WHIP in last 5 w/7.3 K/9 & 2.4 K/BB.”  Plus he has 18 K in his last 13 IP and he gets to face Minnesota in a pitcher’s ballpark.

Mike Minor (ATL @ PIT) – I love the skills of this kid and he’d have probably gotten a shot sooner had he been on rotation when they needed the spot starts that eventually went to Julio Teheran.  He has better than a strikeout per inning in 53 innings at AAA-Gwinnett and just 2.4 BB/9 leading to a near-4.0 K/BB.  He had nearly identical skills in 41 major league innings last year (9.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.9 K/BB) and I think he has a chance to be a high-impact starter the rest of the way.

THURSDAY:

Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. FLO) – His huge, albeit surprising, skills are holding strong with a 2.9 K/BB rate in 33 innings.  He has also added in some luck so the 1.93 ERA will almost certainly rise a bit, but I’d be surprised if there was a total implosion as long as he maintains the skills hold.

FRIDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. LAA) – The Hold List is coming apart at the seams with Brandon McCarthy on the disabled list and Baker struggling in his last three with a 7.04 ERA, though he does have 21 Ks in 15 innings.  While a 4.12 ERA might have been usable 2-3 years ago (in fact, Baker’s 4.37 in 2009 netted a 100 ERA+), it’s below average now which costs Baker his HL spot.  That said, I’m going to use him for this matchup because the skills are still strong (2.8 K/BB power by 9.1 K/9) and his main weakness (home runs) isn’t a particular strength of the Angels (17th-most in baseball w/38).

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Sunday: 05.22.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 8 Monday

I’ve only got a time for a very quick post before heading to bed (I’m beat), but I wanted to get Monday’s selections out.  I’ll post Week 7 results and Tuesday-Friday picks tomorrow.

MONDAY:

Jason Vargas (SEA @ MIN) – Vargas has become a really nice spot starter that many still don’t believe in for some reason.  Sure, he’s not a great pick if you’re chasing wins.  But if you’re chasing wins then you’re not paying attention anyway.  You look for the best possible scenarios for strong starts and let the wins fall where they may.  There is just too much randomness tied to the stat to get caught up in chasing them.  The Minnesota offense has been absolutely disgusting this year so while Vargas is usually more of a home-road play (leaning home), this is a prime road start for him.

Bartolo Colon (NYY v. TOR) – Colon is three-time pick on Trolling and he been amazing having posted a 1.57 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 10 K/BB in 23 innings of work.  Further accentuating my point about chasing wins, he has just one win in the three outings.  He is still widely available in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues with ownership rates under 35% while his CBS mark has risen to 73%.  Of course that still leaves 17% and a lot of those are probably leagues where streaming pitchers is a viable strategy.

—

Keep An Eye On: Josh Outman (OAK) – I was a big fan of Outman’s back in 2009 when he was in the midst of a breakout before succumbing to injury that cost him all of 2010.  He is back with the A’s and starting on Monday in Los Angeles and I recommended keeping him on your watch list.  His minor league numbers are ugly as home runs and walks plagued him leading to a 4.78 ERA, but his 7.2 K/9 is right there in line with the 7.1 we saw in ’09.  He was a bit fortunate back in ’09 with a .233 BABIP, but his massive flyball tendencies are less damaging in his home park so at the very least he could become a nice matchup play for his home starts.  If you’re in a super-deep league looking for pitching and have a spot, he might be worth stashing ahead of the curve.

Week 7 results and the rest of the week tomorrow.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

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