Archive for ‘Starting Pitchers’

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Friday: 06.10.2011

SP List: Notable Exclusions

On yesterday’s updated Starting Pitcher List for the rest of the season, you have may have noticed some names weren’t included that you might have otherwise expected on a list running 116 deep.  Here are those names along with some information on why I didn’t include them.

Dustin Moseley (SD) – He doesn’t do anything especially well.  He isn’t a strikeout guy, he isn’t an elite control guy and he doesn’t use Petco Park to his advantage (3.70 ERA; 2.52 road ERA).  I just don’t see how he can keep his 3.16 ERA all year and I’m not going to hold onto his sub-5.0 K/9 and try to find out.

Josh Collmenter (ARI) – I can’t find anyone who believes in his stuff.  He is succeeding (quite a bit, in fact) off of deception and guile at this point with his windmill delivery.  He at least does something really well, unlike Moseley, he doesn’t walk anybody (1.0 BB/9).  Alas, it is still a small sample and it would be a minor miracle for him to continue at this clip or anything like it.

Clayton Mortensen (COL) – Even if he hadn’t just lost his job, his 1.1 K/BB would’ve been enough to keep him far away from the list.

Tyler Chatwood (LAA) – Chatwood is like, “1.1 K/BB, huh?  Overachiever.”  He is toting a jaw-dropping 0.97 mark in 71 innings of work.  How his ERA is 3.79 and not 9.73 is beyond me.

John Lannan (WAS) – He is one of the strikeout “aces” on this list at 5.4 K/9.  That is about the best that can be said for him right now.  His strikeout rate has risen yearly since 2009, but so has his walk rate.  The groundball rate is very strong, but he will do more harm than good the rest of the way.

Jason Marquis (WAS) – When he walked five in 34 innings during April, he had some people fooled.  Industry people, even.  They fell for the ol’ “since it’s our only sample it must mean something” routine.  I won’t name names because we all make mistakes, but I thought we were all beyond falling for his tricks (although, he definitely pulled a quarter out of my ear).  Since April Marquis has walked 15 in 41 innings which yields passable 3.3 BB/9, but not when it’s paired just 18 strikeouts.  Gimme back my quarter and leave me alone, Jason.

Carlos Villanueva (TOR) – He is the true strikeout ace on this list at 6.8 K/9, but that includes his relief work which accounts for more than half of his innings this year (24 to 22).  His K rate is 5.6 as a starter against 7.8 out of the bullpen.  His ERA as a starter should be better than the 4.84 it is now based on the skills he has displayed, but he is still at best a borderline guy.  Don’t be fooled by the composite numbers.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 06.9.2011

SP List Update – 40% Mile Marker

As we creep toward the 40% marker in the season (24 teams have played at least 38% of their games, the Yankees are the low mark at 36%), I feel it is time to offer up a revamped starting pitcher list so you can assess your arms with more than half of the season left.  There is still plenty of time to make a move so unless you have a team ravaged by star player injuries, don’t give up.

In the SP Guide, I broke the arms down in five tiers ranging from aces to deep prospects.  For the update, we’re just going 116 arms deep with fantasy-usable guys.  These 116 were broken up into four tiers and the tiers are just a little different than you will remember from the guide.  With the pitching-heavy landscape the way it is, tier three as it was constructed this preseason would be too large so I broke it up into two with the new tier four essentially bumping down the old four & five into five & six.  Is that confusing enough?

Tier 1 is still ace-level guys.

Tier 2 is near-ace-level guys.

Tier 3 is all single & deep mixed league must-start guys.

Tier 4 is matchup guys is most formats except the deeper single leagues.

I will also soon post a “Watch List” of guys who aren’t currently in rotations or even in the majors, but could make an impact during the summer.

Tier 1

There isn’t much change her and that’s on purpose.  This tier is reserved for the truly elite and two-plus months isn’t enough to boost someone up unless they were already toting a rock-solid skills profile and were Tier 2 arms from the preseason.  There were only four changes within this grouping from the preseason: two in, two out.  (Note: I’m not going to comment on everyone in this update, espec. w/the elite guys.)

Roy Halladay (PHI) – Duh.

Felix Hernandez (SEA)

Tim Lincecum (SF)

Cole Hamels (PHI) – I did my best to get y’all on the Hamels Train.  I put him here in the preseason; hope you’re reaping the benefits.

Cliff Lee (PHI) – Oh my jeezorz, his ERA is 3.62!  And because of that he is probably my #1 pitching trade target.  Why?  How about a 5.0 K/BB.  Sure it isn’t last year’s otherworldly 10.3 K/BB mark, but he does have a 10.3 in his profile this year: his K/9.

[T1 Addition] David Price (TB) –I had a little concern about his draft day cost given his tendency for walks, but that hasn’t been a problem at all this year (down from 3.4 to 1.4 BB/9) leading to a 5.9 K/BB.  He reversed his ERA/FIP trend whereby his FIP is now 2.71 (3.42 last year) and his ERA is 3.35 (2.72 last year).  Invest.

Dan Haren (LAA)

Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

Justin Verlander (DET)

Tommy Hanson (ATL)

Jon Lester (BOS) – He moved down a bit within the tier, but nothing in his skill set has me particularly worried.  The home runs are more a product of a high HR/FB than anything else.  The bump down is more of a reward to the others than a disparagement of Lester.

[T1 Addition] James Shields (TB) – The second T1 addition is another Ray.  His results are finally starting to match his elite skills.  His 83% LOB% rate will dwindle, but there is a strong chance that his 14% HR/FB will as well thus any ERA deterioration should not be too drastic.  This is why we draft skills and not previous season ERAs.

Jered Weaver (LAA) – His ERA is 3.29 since posting a 0.99 in six sparkling April starts.  The former should be the expectation going forward with anything better being a bonus.

Matt Cain (SF)

CC Sabathia (NYY) – The strikeout rate continues a three-year decline, but a walk rate decline in concert has left the K/BB rate intact.  He’s always been good at limiting home runs, but his 0.4 HR/9 so far this year is inflated by a 4.4% HR/FB so I wouldn’t bet on a continuation.  Still a bankable stud, but toward the bottom of that class.

T1 Roundup: Price, Shields added; J.Johnson, Carpenter dropped

 —

Tier 2

Plenty of change here.  Most of the movers in and out of this tier have shown significant skills growth or deterioration that isn’t completely out of left field thus a move could reasonably be made after just 40% of the season.

Ricky Romero (TOR)

Shaun Marcum (MIL) – The reverse split from last year seems to have been an anomaly two months into this season allowing him to go from good to great in his debut NL season.

Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Caused a panic for some back in April, but skills are back in check over his last six starts.  Expect him to keep chiseling away at that 3.72 ERA over the summer.

Zack Greinke (MIL) – The career-best strikeout and walk rates may not hold, but the 62% LOB% definitely will not hold meaning his 4.83 ERA will improve dramatically.

 [T2 Addition] Chris Carpenter (STL) – He was squeezed out of Tier 1 because the massive amount of hits allowed is at least partially due to factors beyond his control: the defense, but the skills remain very strong so he is still a strong Tier 2 and the buying window is rapidly closing if it hasn’t already.

Ricky Nolasco (FLO) – Are we going to have another season where his elite skills don’t yield equivalent results?  How does he give up 15 hits to the Dodgers??  I still love the talent enough to bet on him.

Ian Kennedy (ARI)

Daniel Hudson (ARI)

[T2 Addition] Josh Johnson (FLO) – Dropped from Tier 1 because injury concerns hang overhead and threaten his value.  This ranking is still a bet on Johnson, to be honest.

Chad Billingsley (LAD)

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – He drops within the tier, but it was laughable to see him getting dropped in leagues throughout May.

Mat Latos (SD)

Matt Garza (CHC) – The stuff is still ahead of the results, but he’s been punished by ugly .364 BABIP and 63% LOB% rates, too.  I was worried about his flyball ways in Wrigley, but a drastic change from 36% to 50% groundballs has been paired with a miniscule 5% HR/FB to avoid gopheritis issues thus far.  Regression to his HR/FB rate will almost certainly be mitigated by BABIP and LOB improvements which could make him an excellent second half bet.

 [T2 Addition] Jaime Garcia (STL) – For some reason this Cardinals groundballer hasn’t been bitten by the drop in defensive quality like Carpenter.  That doesn’t mean it won’t happen at some point, but skills improvement has driven his big start.  If it weren’t for an 11-run thrashing in 3.3 innings at the end of May, he’d be a strong contender for NL starter at the All-Star Game.

[T2 Addition] Josh Beckett (BOS) – All the bad luck suffered in 2010 has come back to him in the first two-plus months of 2011.  Skills remain strong, but not 2.01 ERA strong.   

[T2 Addition] Anibal Sanchez (FLO)

[T2 Addition] Jhoulys Chacin (COL) – Traded some Ks for a ton of groundballs (from 47% to 59%) and has become one of the more underrated arms in the game.

[T2 Addition] CJ Wilson (TEX) – Cut more than a walk off of his rate so far while adding some strikeouts.  His skills now match the 3.35 ERA he posted in 2010.

[T2 Addition] Trevor Cahill (OAK) – He has added strikeouts, but also walks.  His skills still say his ERA should be nearly a run higher than it is right now.  Last year he managed to avoid regression, be careful if you bet on a repeat going forward.

[T2 Addition] Gio Gonzalez (OAK)

Max Scherzer (DET) – His skills are intact when compared to last year’s.  We have seen him go on these skids before, hopefully this one doesn’t require a trip to Toledo.  Stay the course.

Hiroki Kuroda (LAD)

Gavin Floyd (CHW)

T2 Roundup: Carpenter, J.Johnson, Garcia, Becketter, Sanchez, Chacin, Wilson, Cahill, Gonzalez added; Oswalt, B.Anderson, Lewis, Lilly, Dempster, Danks, Baker, Myers, Liriano dropped

  —

Tier 3

The T3 from the preseason was 78 players deep and now this T3/T4 breakup is 79 deep.  Like I said, I basically just split the two as there is a new pitching landscape that we are dealing with now.

Michael Pineda (SEA) – The skills say he is no doubt legit, but he has also had luck on his side, too.  That combined with the dreaded “second time around the league” and the threat of an innings cap later in the year bump him down a little lower than most probably would’ve expected to see him.

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS)

Brandon Morrow (TOR) – Filthy stuff remains, but the rest of his skills profile is out of whack.  I’ll bet on the Ks and near-3.0 K/BB rate yielding better than a 4.50 ERA the rest of the way.

Roy Oswalt (PHI) – He has lost nearly three strikeouts per game.  His 7% rise in groundball rate (to 53%) isn’t enough to alleviate fears of those lost Ks.  Plus in innings cap leagues, it is tough to trot out 5.3 K/9 for 170+ innings.

Ted Lilly (LAD) – Ks have dipped a bit, but BBs have come down in concert meaning the ERA should trickle down soon as well.

John Danks (CHW)

Wandy Rodriguez (HOU)

Scott Baker (MIN) – Home runs are a bit higher than usual for Baker as are his walks, if both regress toward the mean his 3.86 ERA should see some worthwhile improvement.

Erik Bedard (SEA) – It’s never been about talent, only health.

Brian Matusz (BAL) – Only two starts so far this year, but I’m sold on the talent.

Ryan Dempster (CHC) – Skills are intact from last year, but an ERA 2 runs higher?  That’s coming down.

Madison Bumgarner (SF)

Justin Masterson (CLE) – He was my favorite Indians pitcher before the season and remains so now.

Jair Jurrjens (ATL) – Count me as a non-believer in his 1.75 ERA.  The skills just don’t support it.  Sell now.

Bartolo Colon (NYY) – Durability is my only concern.  Honestly, if he was 32, he’d be in Tier 2 with these skills.  You may want to sell just to avoid the unknown.

Tim Stauffer (SD)

Bud Norris (HOU) – Walks were down nicely in the first month, but have since bumped back up to four.  The Ks remain intriguing enough to roster what amounts to a below average ERA at this point (yes, a 3.67 ERA yields a 99 ERA+).

Chris Narveson (MIL) – Is that you, Dave Bush?  Needs to learn how to work with runners on (66% LOB%) and the ERA will plummet.

Edwin Jackson (CHW) – Absurdly high BABIP is really hurting him at this point.  The skills are exactly in line with last year.  Second half surge is in order.

Jeremy Hellickson (TB) – The ERA and WHIP match the lofty expectations, but the skills sure don’t meaning the regression could hit hard unless his skills jump back toward his 2010 levels.  Keeper leagues hold strong, re-drafters sell.

Johnny Cueto (CIN) – Ks have slipped yearly since his rookie season and while the groundball rate has risen from 42% to 53%, I’m certain the 2.27 ERA can’t hold barring major changes.

Clay Buchholz (BOS)

Jonathan Sanchez (SF)

James McDonald (PIT)

Colby Lewis (TEX) – Holy home run, Batman!  His 2.0 HR/9 should decline, but you know how it can get in Arlington during the summer.  Plus the strikeouts haven’t held from last year.  Tread lightly.

Alexei Ogando (TEX) – He may well pitch a full season without issue, but it won’t be at a 2.10 ERA.  The skills control is elite (2.0 BB/9), but other than that it’s been a lot of favorable circumstance (.210 BABIP, 88% LOB).

Kyle Lohse (STL)

Tim Hudson (ATL)

Rick Porcello (DET)

Jonathon Niese (NYM)

Ryan Vogelsong (SF) – Ks were slipping throughout May, but then got seven against Colorado in first June start.  Skills support success, but not a 1.68 ERA.

Charlie Morton (PIT) – Disgustingly elite groundball rate can sustain success, but probably not this much. And while it can also cover low strikeout rate, that doesn’t do innings-cap fantasy leaguers much good.

Aaron Harang (SD)

Derek Lowe (ATL) – K’d 5+ six times in first nine starts, just once in last five.

Dillon Gee (NYM) – Drastic home/road ERA splits, yet strikes out 1.3 more batters per game on the road.

Doug Fister (SEA) – Not just a Safeco product so far this year.

Chris Capuano (NYM)

Randy Wolf (MIL)

Jake Arrieta (BAL) – Could have a big second half a la teammate Matusz last year.

Jeff Karstens (PIT)

Jason Hammel (COL)

  —

Tier 4

For mixed leagues these are the kind of guys you can stream with good matchups and who are at least one skill away from being full-time options.  These guys are owned in just about every AL/NL only league.

Chris Volstad (FLO) – A lot of skills improvement early on being hidden by disastrous 16% HR/FB rate.  Monitor.

Edinson Volquez (CIN) – A strikeout an inning guys should be on a roster so if you have a reserve spot, he’s worth holding to see if the control improves over the summer.

Philip Humber (CHW) –This is not a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher barring a skills change.

Ervin Santana (LAA)

Derek Holland (TEX) – Remember, he is still just 24 so he is still growing.  This is his first season as a full-time starter.

Zach Britton (BAL) – There will be ups and downs all summer.

Jeremy Guthrie (BAL)

Brett Myers (HOU)

AJ Burnett (NYY)

Brian Duensing (MIN) – Knew he’d regress from last year, but skills have held better than I thought so the 4.73 ERA should come down.

Randy Wells (CHC)

Rubby de la Rosa (LAD) – I really like this kid.

Travis Wood (CIN)

Carlos Carrasco (CLE)

Mike Leake (CIN)

Paul Maholm (PIT)

Jason Vargas (SEA)

Josh Tomlin (CLE) – Regression Monster go NOM-NOM-NOM!  Last 3 starts: 18 IP, 16 ER.  Great control, but little else.

Carlos Zambrano (CHC)

Francisco Liriano (MIN) – Fantasy Russian Roulette.

Zach Duke (ARI)

Danny Duffy (KC) – Been crushed just once, I think he could have a nice summer.  Watch him carefully.

Fausto Carmona (CLE)

Nick Blackburn (MIN) – I just don’t get it… this guy has an endless supply of smoke & mirrors.

Jeff Francis (KC)

Phil Coke (DET)

Brad Penny (DET)

Kevin Correia (PIT) – 6th in the NL for Starting Pitcher Run Support, but in fairness, also 8-of-14 quality starts and has allowed 2 or fewer in all eight.

Joel Pineiro (LAA) – If he can get back to his career 5.5 K/9, he is a lot more usable.

Wade Davis (TB)

Josh Outman (OAK)

Tom Gorzelanny (WAS)

Matt Harrison (TEX)

Juan Nicasio (COL)

Javier Vazquez (FLO) – Strikeout an inning the last five starts, but two 6 ER outings.  Tough to figure out right now, but I’d still monitor.

Carl Pavano (MIN) – Sub-4.0 K rate… innings-cap league or not, that’s tough to roster for more than a matchup here & there.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Monday: 06.6.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 10 Monday-Friday

It was the roughest week in a long time for Trolling the Wire as Ervin Santana and Jason Hammel dug a hole (13 ER in 11 IP) the rest of picks couldn’t climb out of by Sunday.  The remaining 12 starters from Monday on had a respectable 3.68 ERA, but that gets masked by the Memorial Day thrashings suffered by big Erv and Hammel.

Despite some up and down weeks with ERA and WHIP, I would like to point out that only once has the ground of TtW picks ending the week with a sub-2.0 K/BB rate.  Also, the strikeout rate has been 6.2 K/9 or better in all but one week (not the single sub-2.0 week; K rate was 6.2 that week).

Overall, I am pretty happy with the picks given that almost every single one of the 104 selections has been someone available in 50% or more of all leagues across all three of the main fantasy baseball outlets.  At times, I pick someone with a higher yet still too low (in my opinion) ownership rate, but I always make sure to note that so everyone understands he may not be available in your particular league.

Let’s see what week 10 holds.

MONDAY:

Brian Matusz (BAL v. OAK) – This guy needs to be owned, plain & simple.  I don’t care what the format is, I love his talent.  He may have some bumps in his first handful of starts back, but if you wait until he’s running completely hot, he won’t be available to pick up.

Scott Baker (MIN @ CLE) – He’s off the hold list for a while because he’s been uneven this year, but I still think he is worthwhile as a spot starter.

TUESDAY:

Phil Humber (CHW v. SEA) – Hats off to the Mariners for their recent surge, but it’s being driven mostly by their pitching and I’m still not afraid of that lineup in the least.  Humber doesn’t miss as many bats as I would like (5.1 K/9), but I love the matchup.

Rubby de la Rosa (LAD @ PHI) – This one isn’t for the faint of heart, but I love the talent this kid has and think he could hit the ground running as a starter.  Citizen’s Bank Ballpark is a bit scary, but the Philadelphia Phillies lineup really isn’t.  This pick is also a bit of a futures play.  If he goes out and dominates, he becomes much harder to acquire him, especially in faster-finger leagues, because he will draw the attention of your leaguemates.  So let’s get the jump on this blue-chip prospect.

WEDNESDAY:

Gavin Floyd (CHW v. SEA) – A better option than Humber against the same feeble lineup.  Sign me up.  He’s heavily owned at CBS (88%), but definitely under-owned in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues checking in at 60% and 63%, respectively.  Won’t be available for all, but a must-own if he’s on your wire.

Randy Wolf (MIL v. NYM) – Wolf’s composite skills are solid enough, but the home/road split is what sells me on him this week.  Home: 2.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 32 IP; Road: 4.38 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 39 IP.  He strikes out more on the road, but give me the better rates against a middle of the pack lineup (14th-best OPS in baseball).

THURSDAY:

Aaron Harang (SD v. WAS) – We knew Petco would be friendly to Harang which is what made him intriguing in the first place this offseason.  It has played out that way with a 3.31 home ERA against a 4.84 mark on the road.  Take the known advantage of the spacious ballpark and pair it with a great matchup against a bottom five offense.

Jeff Karstens (PIT v. ARI) – Another sharp home/road split to take advantage of here.  Karstens is toting a career best strikeout (6.6 K/9) and walk (1.7 BB/9) rates, the latter of which sinks to 1.5 at home.  He is over three runs better at home with a 2.21 ERA in 37 innings at PNC Park (5.23 road ERA) and though Arizona is having a great run of late, their road offense is bottom five with 105 runs scored and a paltry .657 OPS.

FRIDAY:

Charlie Morton (PIT v. NYM) – What does this kid have to do to get some love?  He’s been fantastic this year.  The strikeout rate is low, there’s no doubt about it, so innings cap leaguers beware if you don’t have a strikeout ace.  But beyond that he’s been brilliant and the groundball rate is astronomical which covers that K deficiency nicely.

 

Weekend picks later this week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 06.6.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 10 Monday

I’ll post the rest later, but I’ve been quite busy at work today.  I wanted to get Monday’s picks out for leagues that still allow pick ups (namely ESPN ones).

Brian Matusz v. OAK

Scott Baker v. CLE

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Saturday: 06.4.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 9 The Weekend

I don’t usually post on Saturday, but I owe you all some spot starter picks!  I fell asleep early and was out like a light last night.  I finished my top 30 picks, then focused in entirely on my Tigers against the White Sox and wasn’t awake to see the end of the 6-4 loss.  So let’s get these out quickly and you still might be able to make a move:

SATURDAY:

Doug Fister (SEA v. TB) – I never bought in on Fister last year and was eventually proven right as he ended the season with a 4.11 ERA.  He just didn’t strikeout enough guys for my liking.  He has changed that so far this year with 6.0 K/9 in May and 6.2 for the season.  Combine that with a strong 2.0 BB/9 and this is an appealing skill set.  The M’s are somehow smoking the Rays early on in this series and it doesn’t get easier for the Rays facing Fister.

Dillon Gee (NYM v. ATL) – Not much is going right for the Mets this year, but Gee has been a bright spot for the Mets rotation and I like him at home (2.20 ERA in Citi) against the Braves.

SUNDAY:

Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. COL) – The strikeouts are on the decline a bit in his last three starts, but he has a 0.38 ERA at home despite 5.3 K/9.  He amps up the punchouts on the road (8.6) so if you need Ks, the trends say this might not be the best spot for him, but for a quality outing I’d go with him.

Erik Bedard (SEA v. TB) – His swan song on Trolling the Wire as his ownership rates continue to climb because owners are finally catching on.

James McDonald (PIT v. PHI) – He was positively brilliant in May (2.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 K/BB in 35 IP) and I think he can hold his own against the Phillies, especially at home (2.55 home ERA/6.49 road).  His offense faces Roy Halladay so a win might be tough to come by, but we don’t chase wins.

Results (need to rally this weekend!) and Week 10 picks tomorrow…

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 05.31.2011

Roy Halladay Even Struggles Better Than Everyone Else

How many pitchers would kill to have one of their bad games be one where they go seven, give up four runs and still get the win?  Hundreds, I’m sure.  It wasn’t Roy Halladay’s worst start of the season, no, that was his six earned run in six and two-thirds showing where he yielding 10 hits and allowed walked a season-high two.

His Memorial Day effort during which he allowed three home runs, easily a season-worst, yielded his second lowest Game Score of the season at 46 yet he still managed to strike out five, walk nobody and as I mentioned, earned the win.  Still don’t think wins are a fluky, unpredictable whore of a stat?

What I found most interesting about Halladay’s start yesterday was that he gave up those three home runs yet still got a win.  How often does that happen?  More on that in that in a second.  Halladay doesn’t normally give up home runs, in fact even accounting for his Memorial Day three pack, his HR/9 rate is up to a still-tiny 0.5.

Since becoming a full-time starter back in 2001, his rate hasn’t topped 1.0.  In the parts of three years before that homers were a major issue for the young Halladay (21-23 years old in that span).  That said, he isn’t averse to allowing three or more in a start even during his reign as baseball’s best pitcher, or at least one of them.

In his Cy Young season of 2003 when he went 22-7 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and league-best 6.4 K/BB rate, he twice allowed three bombs in a game.  The first was against the Royals where the homers proved to be the only earned damage against Halladay as he went six leaving before there was a decision.  Toronto won the game 6-5.

The other was a bit more damaging, but again he didn’t expire the bullpen going 7.3 innings allowing six runs striking out seven and walking just one.  He had a similar outing the following year going 6.7 innings allowing seven, six earned against Detroit, but struck out nine and walked a pair.

He has allowed 3+ home runs seven more times since 2007 which is tied with eight others for the third-most in major league baseball, including Johan Santana interestingly enough.  In those games, he is a seemingly impossible 4-2 (.667 winning percentage) outclassing his mates with a 5.47 ERA (next best is 6.95; worst is 12.20) and 1.31 WHIP (1.43; 1.96).

One of his four wins even came when he allowed four home runs in a game.  That was last year in September against Milwaukee.  They were all solo shots and the only four runs allowed by Halladay.

Now, how often does a starting pitcher give up three home runs and still come out on the other end with a win?  Here’s a clue, it’s not two-thirds of the time like Halladay.  In that same 2007-2011 span, the league is 70-449 (.135 winning percentage) in 3+ home runs allowed starts for major league baseball pitchers.

Not surprisingly, Halladay is also the best at saving the bullpen during those poor outing going 51 innings with Santana and James Shields checking in behind him at 44 each.  Of the 35 players with 5+ three home runs allowed outing since 2007, only he and now teammate Cliff Lee have a complete game under their belt.  Even when he’s doing poorly, Halladay is still better than everyone else.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

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Sunday: 05.29.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 9 Monday-Friday

Stupid ESPN scoreboard.  They told me Bartolo Colon was pitching on Sunday against Seattle.  Alas he did NOT, instead pitching on Monday while teammate CC Sabathia got the nod against the Mariners.  That little mishap cost this week’s set of picks the chance at a sub-4.00 ERA.  The week started off poorly with Colon allowing six in six against Toronto and his supposed counterpart for today, Jason Vargas, getting knocked around on Monday, too.

Chris Narveson was also torched on Tuesday, leaving the picks with a 10.93 ERA after just three starts.  It was smooth sailing from that point forward as the remaining nine starters posted a 2.33 ERA in 58 innings, but as I mentioned it just wasn’t enough to erase that early damage.  At least if you’re streaming in a head-to-head league, the picks down the stretch were much better than the rough start.

MONDAY:

Colon (NYY @ OAK) – It’s still a nice start against a weak offense in a friendly ballpark.

Ervin Santana (LAA @ KC) – The Royals offense has fallen back to the middle of the pack this month while Santana is getting into a groove.  He will still have that implosion from time to time that leaves his composite numbers right around league average.  I think this is a good spot for him.

Jason Hammel (COL @ LAD) – Hammel is something of an enigma as his first two years in Colorado saw some great skills paired with less-than-stellar ERA & WHIP totals not commensurate with those skills.  This year the skills have eroded a bit, but the ERA & WHIP totals are around what we’d have expected in those other two years.  I think his skills rise to where they were in 2009 and 2010 while holding firm or improving the ERA & WHIP, plus the Dodgers are an auto play-against team with their weak offense.

Prediction: Jo-Jo Reyes will break his no-win streak against Cleveland on Monday.  I like his skills a bit and could see him on Trolling at some point soon.  He’s been horrifically unlucky to this point.  For now, I’ll just predict a win for him snapping that ugly streak. 

TUESDAY:

Ryan Vogelsong (SF @ STL) – His ownership rates are on the rise, but he is still available in a ton of leagues for at least another week.  The skills are there with a  7.0 K/9 and 2.9 K/BB so keep riding the streak while it lasts.  With the rash of injuries hitting the pitching ranks of late, I’d hang onto Vogelsong for the time being.

Mike Minor (ATL v. SD) – He did well in last week’s start against a lame Pittsburgh Pirates offense and his reward is a start against the lowly San Diego Padres.  They’ve been improved from their awful April performance, but I’m still not afraid of them.  I really like Minor.  Things will get crowded once Brandon Beachy gets back, but I think Minor will perform well enough to make things difficult for the Braves brass.

Erik Bedard (SEA v. BAL) – Bedard is no longer available in many CBS leagues (84%), but he’s still widely available in ESPN (66%) and Yahoo! (44%) leagues, so we’ll throw him out for another week, but he also joins the Hold List.  He’s another guy who is probably being snapped up permanently a lot more given the spate of injuries that recently hit the game (Beachy, Josh Johnson and Wandy Rodriguez to name a few).

WEDNESDAY:

Chris Capuano (NYM v. PIT) – He has the one blowup in May (6 ER on 5/21), but otherwise he has allowed no more than 2 ER in his other four starts this month.  The blowup was at the Yankees where he allowed four home runs so it’s fair to say it’s an anomaly.  Best of all, he has 28 K in 29 innings this month.  This a nice start for him.

THURSDAY:

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS @ ARI) – He’s off to the Hold List this week as his ownership rates creep near 70% at two of the three outlets (Y! is the holdout) and I don’t want to keep recommending a guy who isn’t widely available.

Tim Stauffer (SD v. HOU) – His skill set this year is really nice.  He has kept most of his groundball gains from 2010 (53% after 55% last year) while adding strikeouts and cutting walks.  Meanwhile his BABIP, LOB% & HR/FB indicators point toward some favorable ERA headed his way cutting into the 3.60 he is currently toting.  I love him in a start against Houston, but that stupid, dumb offense of his might continue to cost him wins.

FRIDAY:

Danny Duffy (KC v. MIN) – Facing Texas twice and heading to Camden Yards, the rookie southpaw has acquitted himself well in the first three starts of his career all things considering.  There is nothing particularly special about his 4.11 ERA or 1.57 WHIP (10 BB in 15.3 IP), but the 8.2 K/9 is very nice and he seems to be getting better start-to-start as he gets his feet underneath him in his debut season.  He finally draws a favorable matchup and I think we could get our first glimpse of the high end ability this kid has in his future.

The weekend later this week…

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Friday: 05.27.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 8 The Weekend

The week started off pretty horribly so even though the last five starts have been gems, they have just been chiseling away at a bloated ERA caused by the first three guys trotted out there.  I’ve got four weekend picks to cover and perhaps they can keep the momentum going giving the group a good composite week.

SATURDAY:

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS v. SD) – After an up and down April, Zimmermann has thrown 25 innings with a 3.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while striking out 26 in four May starts, the last three of which have been on the road.  Now he gets a home bid against the putrid San Diego Padres offense making him a must-start.  He is still on a lot of league wires for some reason, but he is someone I really like for the remaining four months of the season so I’d consider hanging onto him in leagues where available.

Carlos Villanueva (TOR v. CHW) – He has been dealing this year for the Jays, mostly out of the pen, but got a start on Monday and looked very sharp against the Yankees.  He is a strikeout guy (26 in 29 IP, 5 in 5 on Monday) which can build a pitch count.  That combined with the fact that they are just starting to stretch him out could limit him to around six innings, but I think he will fare well.

Randy Wolf (MIL v. SF) – He was on fire earlier this year (2.39 ERA in 6 Apr. starts), but then cooled off with two poor starts at the beginning of May including one against the Padres.  He’s throwing well again of late and he completes his tour of the NL West (last three starts v. SD, COL & @LAD) with a shot against a weak Giants offense that recently lost their best player, catcher Buster Posey.

SUNDAY:

Bartolo Colon (NYY @ SEA) – He was knocked around earlier this week on my watch as was his opponent in this game, Jason Vargas.  They are a big part of why the composite numbers look so bad, but I’m willing to stand by Colon after a bad start.  It’s only second down start of the season and he still struck out eight so he can be trusted against the anemic M’s in Safeco.

 

Results and Week 9 picks on Sunday.

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Monday: 05.23.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 8 Tuesday-Friday

I am doing a great job at picking starters who end up involved in rainouts.  Of course, half the league gets rained out nightly so I guess that’s not too surprising.  Tuesday was a total washout with Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann getting wiped out, but I went back to the well with both on Sunday and it went quite well (14.3 IP, 2 ER, 8 K).

I pound this one home time and time and time again, but the week 7 Trolling picks accentuate perfectly just in case you still don’t believe: you cannot chase wins… ever.  Twelve starters threw 78 innings with a 2.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP yet netted just two wins.  TWO!  It wasn’t a necessarily an ill-begotten ERA, either, as the group had a solid if unspectacular 6.1 K/9, but a very strong 2.5 K/BB.

We will still aim for skills first and foremost, but hopefully we can pull a few more wins with this week’s picks.

MONDAY:  Found here.

TUESDAY:

Chris Narveson (MIL v. WAS) – He has spent most of May chiseling away at an ERA that was heavily damaged by a 7 ER in 2.3 IP outing, but now it’s at a very respectable 3.44 thanks to a really strong month.  Again, I know you can’t pick and choose starts, but if you remove that outlier, you see a 2.34 ERA in eight starts with a strong 7.9 K/9.  Of course, leave it in and the strikeout rate remains the same and the ERA above average, even in the very heavy pitching environment of 2011.

Charlie Morton (PIT v. ATL) – This is still a tough nut to crack with his just over 1 K:BB rate (1.12), but the insane groundball (62%) masks some of the K:BB shortcomings.  He has three really weird starts with five walks in each and just one or two strikeouts (five total), but he has a 3.50 ERA in 18.3 innings with two wins during the starts.  In his last two starts, he has five Ks in each with 14 and 17 groundballs, respectively.  He’s facing a team with 21st ranked OPS on the heels of losing one of their best hitters in Jason Heyward.  He has succeeded against much better teams including two complete games at Cincinnati (1 ER total).

WEDNESDAY:

James McDonald (PIT v. ATL) – He has really picked it up in May with a 3.18 ERA in 23 innings along with 24 strikeouts.  Still a little inconsistent, but the favorable matchup (6th-most Ks in MLB) helps.

Erik Bedard (SEA @ MIN) – I’ll simply reiterate my Sunday Twidbit on Bedard: “After posting an 8.56 ERA in first 3 starts, Erik Bedard has a 1.97 ERA & 0.97 WHIP in last 5 w/7.3 K/9 & 2.4 K/BB.”  Plus he has 18 K in his last 13 IP and he gets to face Minnesota in a pitcher’s ballpark.

Mike Minor (ATL @ PIT) – I love the skills of this kid and he’d have probably gotten a shot sooner had he been on rotation when they needed the spot starts that eventually went to Julio Teheran.  He has better than a strikeout per inning in 53 innings at AAA-Gwinnett and just 2.4 BB/9 leading to a near-4.0 K/BB.  He had nearly identical skills in 41 major league innings last year (9.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.9 K/BB) and I think he has a chance to be a high-impact starter the rest of the way.

THURSDAY:

Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. FLO) – His huge, albeit surprising, skills are holding strong with a 2.9 K/BB rate in 33 innings.  He has also added in some luck so the 1.93 ERA will almost certainly rise a bit, but I’d be surprised if there was a total implosion as long as he maintains the skills hold.

FRIDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. LAA) – The Hold List is coming apart at the seams with Brandon McCarthy on the disabled list and Baker struggling in his last three with a 7.04 ERA, though he does have 21 Ks in 15 innings.  While a 4.12 ERA might have been usable 2-3 years ago (in fact, Baker’s 4.37 in 2009 netted a 100 ERA+), it’s below average now which costs Baker his HL spot.  That said, I’m going to use him for this matchup because the skills are still strong (2.8 K/BB power by 9.1 K/9) and his main weakness (home runs) isn’t a particular strength of the Angels (17th-most in baseball w/38).

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Sunday: 05.22.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 8 Monday

I’ve only got a time for a very quick post before heading to bed (I’m beat), but I wanted to get Monday’s selections out.  I’ll post Week 7 results and Tuesday-Friday picks tomorrow.

MONDAY:

Jason Vargas (SEA @ MIN) – Vargas has become a really nice spot starter that many still don’t believe in for some reason.  Sure, he’s not a great pick if you’re chasing wins.  But if you’re chasing wins then you’re not paying attention anyway.  You look for the best possible scenarios for strong starts and let the wins fall where they may.  There is just too much randomness tied to the stat to get caught up in chasing them.  The Minnesota offense has been absolutely disgusting this year so while Vargas is usually more of a home-road play (leaning home), this is a prime road start for him.

Bartolo Colon (NYY v. TOR) – Colon is three-time pick on Trolling and he been amazing having posted a 1.57 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 10 K/BB in 23 innings of work.  Further accentuating my point about chasing wins, he has just one win in the three outings.  He is still widely available in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues with ownership rates under 35% while his CBS mark has risen to 73%.  Of course that still leaves 17% and a lot of those are probably leagues where streaming pitchers is a viable strategy.

—

Keep An Eye On: Josh Outman (OAK) – I was a big fan of Outman’s back in 2009 when he was in the midst of a breakout before succumbing to injury that cost him all of 2010.  He is back with the A’s and starting on Monday in Los Angeles and I recommended keeping him on your watch list.  His minor league numbers are ugly as home runs and walks plagued him leading to a 4.78 ERA, but his 7.2 K/9 is right there in line with the 7.1 we saw in ’09.  He was a bit fortunate back in ’09 with a .233 BABIP, but his massive flyball tendencies are less damaging in his home park so at the very least he could become a nice matchup play for his home starts.  If you’re in a super-deep league looking for pitching and have a spot, he might be worth stashing ahead of the curve.

Week 7 results and the rest of the week tomorrow.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

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