Archive for ‘Starting Pitchers’

« Older Entries  |   Newer Entries »
Thursday: 07.12.2012

The Second Half Hail Mary Team

Your team sucks.  Way to go, idiot.  You are wallowing near or at the bottom of the standings with seemingly no hope.  It’s a redraft league so you don’t even have the option of trading for the 2013 which can be a fun exercise once you realize a season is lost.  So what do you do with the second half?  Hint: ignore your team and start looking for sleepers who will definitely fail in fantasy football is not the answer.  No, the answer is you throw conservatism out the window and chuck some Hail Marys to see if you can make a run.  Cross-sport reference!!!!

As dire as the situation may look now, there is time.  It’s not exactly the halfway point, four teams have played 87 games and all but two have (Washington & Kansas City at 83 & 84, respectively) played 85 or more, but a lot of baseball is still going to be played.  There will be plenty of Cinderella stories in October about a team that was buried at the All-Star Break only to surge through the standings in the dog days of summer en route to an improbable victory.  Let’s make that your story.

Presenting the Hail Mary Team for 2012.  This group of strugglers contain a ton of upside if they can reach previously established heights in the coming months.  Honestly, if you are one of the teams looking up at most of the league in your standings, you probably have a couple of these guys on your team.  They came into the season with elevated expectations and have failed to meet them for a bevy of reasons.  Their price tags have lowered (and if they haven’t, just pass, because there’s no sense paying full price) and with nothing to lose, they could be your ticket to a much better slot in your standings.

CATCHER – Carlos Santana

He’s been wretched this year after a great 2011 season.  And it’s not just the concussion that sidelined him near the end of May as he was horrible in that whole month leading up to the injury (.233/.314/.344).  The concussion may be exacerbating the situation, but it’s just been a rough go since a solid .262/.417/.446 line April suggesting that maybe something other than the concussion is in play.  Nevertheless, this is a power force at a scarce position who can be a big time run producer if he gets back to the guy we saw in his first 201 games spanning part of 2010 and all of 2011: .244/.362/.459 with 33 HR and 101 RBI.  Brian McCann got some consideration, but his surge before the break (.421, 4 game HR streak w/11 RBI) likely allayed the fears of many and ate into any discount you could’ve gotten previously.

FIRST BASE – Ike Davis, Eric Hosmer

Both guys have been hot of late, but such wretched starts have their overall lines still in shambles resulting in their appearance on waiver wires in shallower leagues and making them available for little more than a song in leagues where they are on a roster.  Davis has a very healthy .294/.351/.635 line with 7 HR and 28 RBI in the last month so his price might be one of the higher ones on this list comparatively speaking, but I’d be willing to pay it as long as it still represented a discount against preseason expectations.  He’s been a bit Dan Uggla-esque circa 2011 where the batting average was just awful, but the power was still present.  I’m not sure he’s going to run off a 33-game hit streak like Uggla did, but who cares?

Hosmer ripped off a 3-hit game in Yankee Stadium in late May, his first of the year, and that seemed to be something of a turning point for his season.  From that game on: .289/.352/.430 with 4 HR, 19 RBI and 7 SB in 165 plate appearances.  He is still toting a .231/.299/.371 season line, though, which is why he still qualifies for this team.  Like Davis, he will be on the higher end of the cost spectrum among this list of players, but he should still be available at a sharp discount compared to the preseason which is what makes him a worthy Hail Mary target.

SECOND BASE – The Weekeseseseses, Rickie & Jemile

The Brothers Weeks have been awful this year lending to the decimation of the second base this year which could’ve been a plentiful position had players met or at least been near expectations.  Surges from Aaron Hill, Neil Walker, Jason Kipinis and Jose Altuve are only masking failures of the brothers, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Dustin Ackley instead of adding depth.  Back to these two, though, with Rickie first.

Injuries have always been a problem as he has just one season with more than 129 games played, otherwise he has usually performed quite well as long as he is on the field.  Until this year.  Even a depressed offensive environment can’t mask his woes as he checks in just under the Mendoza Line at .199 with just 8 HR and 6 SB in 81 games.  He hit 20 HR in 118 games last year, so even doubling his current output would be short of expectations.  He’s running at the same clip as last year, but he’s not really a speed asset these days anyway, that’s his brother’s area of expertise.

Speaking of Jemile, he has been an abomination thus far.  Imagine he were even average, the A’s might be above .500.  As it is, they are right at the mark and his return could help them stay there or exceed the level going forward.  The real bummer is that his poor half has overshadowed the huge gains in walk rate (up from 5% last year to 11% this year) paired with a small improvement in strikeout (down 1% to 13%).  If Dee Gordon can lead baseball in stolen bases (30) with a .280 on-base percentage, Weeks should have more than 12 with a more palatable .312 OBP.  He is an easy target if steals is a category where you’re severely lagging.

SHORTSTOP – Alexei Ramirez

When Ramirez ended up April with a paltry .498 OPS, some may have seen that as a prime buying opportunity as he routinely takes a while to get going.  Over his career, April is easily his worth month checking in with a .561 OPS compared to .721 or better in every other month peaking with .822 in July.  He sputtered to a .581 mark this May.  He improved to .678 in June so he is progressing, but not nearly as rapidly as usual.  In a scant 7-game sample for July, he is at 1.057 so maybe he finally ready to let loose.

The power has been noticeably absent throughout with just two home runs.  He has run a bit more to help alleviate a bit of the damage checking in with 10 SB, three more than all of last year in a full season.  He has long been one of those guys who is much better as a fantasy asset than as a real life one with only one season over 99 OPS+ (104 as a rookie).  He had become a bankable 15-70-10-80 with an average around .270.  It will take a helluva rally to get there this year, but if he just performs to the levels we have seen in the past, he will be a positive asset at shortstop at a nothing cost.

THIRD BASE – Ryan Zimmerman

I was surprised the other day when I heard some fantasy analysts dismissing him as a non-entity.  The basic premise was essentially that he’s never been any good so why are folks still hung up on him?  That’s just crazy talk.  He was excellent in 2009-2010 and was tracking toward another great season last year when injuries cut it short.  He hasn’t been good this year and I think injuries are a big reason again as he had a DL stint back in late April through early May and then he took a while to get going once he was back.

I’ll grant that he isn’t the sturdiest guy around.  That seems to come with territory when dealing with defensive stalwarts like Zimmerman, but he is definitely a damn fine hitter capable of big numbers.  In fact, he has been hot of late starting with a Coors Field trip (always a nice remedy for a hitter) totaling 14 games in all during which he has hit .333/.394/.683 with 5 HR and 18 RBI.  He has a 1.003 OPS with 3 HR in the non-Coors part, so don’t worry that he is Brandon Mossing us.  His bottom line is still gruesome (.694 OPS) enough that the price won’t be too steep.

OUTFIELD – Cameron Maybin

Proponents of Maybin’s are pointing toward last year’s second half dash to the finish that saw him swipe 28 bases after the break with an improved .268 average (up from .259) and hoping he has another such run (pun fully intended) in him.  The talent is there in glimpses, but those are all too brief because even when he’s hitting the longest home run in Chase Field, he’s still only carrying a .212 average.

Ichiro Suzuki

This is probably just the decline of a 38-year old former star, but it’s hard not to look at his 39 SBs from just a year ago and dream of him stealing 20+ in the second half.

Shane Victorino

He has been a far cry from what we expect in the slugging department thanks to a precipitous drop in triples as he has just two after leading baseball two of the last three years and notching 10 in the third of those seasons.  Aside from that, he hasn’t been awful save a little batting average misfortune.  I think the perception of his struggling is stronger than the truth of it as he already has as many steals (19) as he did in all of last year and his eight homers are just off of last year’s pace.  Try to prey on the trade rumors swirling about and his benching the other day for not liking his slot in the order as well as the general Phillie malaise that has seemingly stunk up every non-Hamels entity.

Bes Jond Unnings and D.J. Jupton

Paired together for obvious reason, Desmond Jennings and B.J. Upton have been colossal disappointments this year, though like others in the list they have run enough to stem the tide a bit on their being fantasy sinkholes.  Both have 15 SBs, impressive more so for Jennings coming in eight fewer games, but both are still on the wrong side of .680 OPS to date.  It looks even worse if you extend back into September for Jennings as he jumped off a cliff after a blazing hot run from late July through August.

Meanwhile, no one is expecting anything batting average-wise from Upton, but what is with the power outage?  He’s been around a 20 HR hitter the last two years which combined with his speed and 80ish runs driven in and scored made the batting average plenty palatable.  He’s now on pace for 13, down 10 from last year, but he can string together some 4-5 HR months and rally to or above 20 if he’s right.  Both of these Rays have plenty of upside that make gambling on them easy, especially at a discount.

Nelson Cruz

He has been lying in wait just ready for a Cruzian streak.  It may be bubbling up near the surface, too, as he entered the break with three multi-hit games including four doubles, but no homers.  When he gets hot he can carry a fantasy team so he is an easy inclusion even though he hasn’t been as rotten as the others with a 99 OPS+.  You may have to package one of your few worthwhile assets to get him and someone else on this list.  It could pay major dividends with a monster like Cruz.

PITCHING

Tim Lincecum

Duh.  Just look at the track record, I don’t really need to tell you why he’s a Hail Mary candidate.

Dan Haren

Currently injured making it a nice time to strike.  For the purposes of this exercise it also helps that he was terrible for five starts (8.67 ERA) before finally hitting the DL with a balky back.  His brilliant track record and the glimpses of greatness this year when healthy make it clear that he is still someone worth targeting.  The rest will hopefully get him back to 100% and he will return to his previously established level of excellence.

Rickey Romero

Let’s be honest, he didn’t really earn a 2.92 ERA last year from a skills standpoint. He still got the 2.92 ERA and I’m sure it helped many a fantasy team, but expecting that this year would’ve been silly.  Similarly, he isn’t a 5.22 ERA pitcher, either.  The skills have deteriorated this year without question, but not 5.22 deterioration.  His control is all out whack with a career-worst 4.7 BB/9.  That points to a potential mechanical issue which hopefully can be identified and corrected.

Unfortunately, the bubonic plague is sweeping across the Toronto rotation so injury could be an issue, too, but he doesn’t seem to be laboring or hurting when I view his starts with my amateur scouting eye.  A 3.50 ERA from a workhorse who will put himself in position for decisions (and ideally wins given their stout offense) can go a long way toward fixing your flailing staff.

Derek Holland

We saw last year, specifically in the second half and playoffs, what he can do when he is click.  His skills are in line with last year’s save a bit of home run trouble which has no doubt led to his inflated 5.05 ERA.  He quietly came off the DL just before the break and had a quality start, strike quickly before he strings a few together and saps up any discount via trade or starts getting scooped up off the waiver wires.

Doug Fister

The infield defense has struggled as planned and Fister has been a prime casualty, but that isn’t the only factor as a 17% HR/FB rate has led to a 1.2 HR/9 rate.  That factor should regress, especially for a groundball artist (2.2 GB/FB ratio), and that will cut into his 4.75 ERA.  Completing the Hail Mary pass would be a tightening up of the defense allowing him to pitch to a level on par with his skills which would be around 3.45 or better.

Francisco Liriano

Personally, I don’t think he should be trusted, but we are talking Hail Marys here.  He has a 3.12 ERA and a strikeout per inning in his seven starts since returning to the rotation.  We know the upside he has when everything is going perfectly.

Ubaldo Jimenez

Is he the next Liriano after his fall from grace last year?  Probably so, but like Liriano he is streaking in his last seven with a 2.93 ERA and 44 Ks in 46 innings.  In fact, they both started their streaks on June 5th so they are even more similar this year.  They both have ace upside.  Doesn’t mean they’ll will reach it, but the chance is there.

Ervin Santana

He likes to throw a stinker season in every once in a while to keep everyone honest I guess, but his capability is a commodity as proven in three of the previous four years from 2008-2011.  Unsurprisingly home runs were his issue in 2009, too, so figuring that out will be the key to his potential success going forward.  He doesn’t quite have ace potential because he peaks around 6.8-7.0 K/9, but with the Angels clicking, he can run off a bunch of wins with quality ratios if he gets himself figured out.

Clay Buchholz

Another guy I don’t really buy into, but people I respect do and besides, I’m trying to fix your crappy team not mine.  Even including the thrashing he suffered right before hitting the DL, he had 3.35 ERA and 5-1 record (including 4 straight Ws) in eight starts whittling his ERA from 9.09 to 5.53 in the process.  He is currently sitting on the DL with terrible bottom line numbers making now the best time to strike if you are interested.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Bold Predictions, Catcher, Fantasy Baseball, First Base, Hitters, Outfield, Player Focus, Predictions, Roster Management, Second Base, Shortstop, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trading | 3 Comments »

Tuesday: 07.10.2012

For Sale: Quality Arms

The Colorado Rockies pitching staff is a mess right now.  They have a league-worst 5.26 ERA which eclipses second-worst Minnesota by 0.40 thanks in large part to their home ballpark ignoring the current state of baseball as a pitcher’s dreamland and playing like the early 2000s Coors Field.  To wit, their home ERA is 5.87, nearly a full run worse than Minnesota 4.91 (yikes, I thought they had a pitcher’s park?).  They are more than two runs worse than the 3.78 NL average at home.

While they are better on the road at 4.57, they are still nowhere near the 4.19 NL (and league, in this case) average.  So we can’t just pin the blame on Coors Field and be done with it.  That environment certainly isn’t helping matters, but an overwhelming lack of talent is the real problem here.  Yet I can’t help but think that perhaps they would be better off if they stopped giving away talent for absolutely nothing.

FELIPE PAULINO

The Rockies acquired Paulino from the Houston Astros for Clint Barmes in November of 2010.  It was a small move, but definitely one where they got the upside even before the 20/15 hindsight.  Paulino labored a bit through 92 innings (5.11 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), but the upside was there in a 27-year old who averaged 95.5 MPH on his fastball with a groundball lean.  He needed to learn how to work with runners on (59% LOB in ’10), but the 4.36 xFIP pointed to promise.

Barmes, meanwhile, was a glove-only shortstop as he followed up his 23 home run season of 2009 with just eight.  In fact, his OPS+ of 82 showed that even the 23 HR season wasn’t terribly special and his 67 OPS+ in 2010 only punctuated that fact.  Even before either suited up for their new teams, this looked like a strong move for Colorado with the potential to be a truly great one if Paulino could figure it out.

Something stood out from Paulino’s time in Houston: he seemed to really struggle as a reliever.  Granted the samples were tiny (21 total innings across three years), but he was just insanely bad compared to when he was starting.

Something about relieving just didn’t seem to sit right with Paulino.  You might think that slotting him in relief would work, maybe add a tick or two to his 95 MPH heat and allow him to become a dominant force out of the bullpen, but at the same time it was probably best to explore the starting option with him given the aforementioned velocity he carried as a starter.

The Rockies were set on the relief role for Paulino and in 18 outings he posted an ugly 7.36 ERA and 2.05 WHIP across 14.7 innings.  Outings of five and two runs in 0.3 of work for each definitely inflated the numbers of his small sample, but alas the Rockies had seen enough.  In fact the 2 ER/0.3 IP outing was his last as with the team, they were done with him

OK, so find another team willing to take a shot on the 95 MPH flamethrower and get an upside prospect or team-controlled major leaguer in return, right?  Or just sell him to the Kansas City Royals.  After 4.3 innings of scoreless mop up work in his first outing for the Royals, they made him a starter full-time and immediately saw glimpses of his potential.

Including the relief outing, Paulino opened his KC tenure with 12.3 scoreless innings and had a 1.29 ERA in 21 innings through the relief outing and his first three starts.  He was up and down the rest of the way, but more good than bad with only a couple of true flameout starts (including one in Oakland, oddly enough).  He closed the season with four really strong starts yielding a 3.75 ERA and 1.17 ERA in 24 innings, but more importantly an 11.6 K/9 and 4.4 K/BB.

Unfortunately injuries delayed the start of his 2012 season and then ended it way too prematurely, but he was headed for a breakout season posting a 1.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.6 K/BB in 37.7 innings of work before succumbing to an elbow injury that many believe will end up being a Tommy John Surgery.

That doesn’t change the fact that the Rockies gave up on him after less than 15 innings of crappy relief and got nothing in return.  He may have eventually gotten injured in Colorado, too, but that outcome of an injury doesn’t change the fact that their process was horrible especially since they started off on the right foot by trading a piece that they had no use for in Barmes to get Paulino..

FRANKLIN MORALES

Morales was a product of the Rockies system and was heavily lauded as a future star.  Kevin Goldstein had him first in the system in 2008 as a five-star prospect and slotted him 13th overall on his top 100 list that year.  Baseball America also had him first in the organization and liked him even more on the bigger scale tabbing him as the 8th-best prospect in baseball that year.

Control was a major issue for Morales coming up with walk rates ranging from 4.2 to 6.9 BB/9 in his five stops en route to his 2007 big league debut (a year before the glowing ratings from prospect mavens).  In eight starts down the stretch, Morales was great for the Rockies including a stretch of 20-scoreless than spanned three outings (of 5, 6, and 6 IP) and three innings of a fourth.  His peripherals weren’t flashy (5.9 K/9, 1.9 K/BB), but a 55% groundball rate aided him to a 3.43 ERA.

He opened 2008 with an outing of six scoreless innings before imploding and walking four or more in three of his next four starts.  The Rockies pulled the plug in April after a 6.39 ERA in 25.3 innings and sent him to the minors where he finished the implosion (5.47 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 K/BB).  He opened 2009 with another gem, but left his second start with a shoulder strain.

He wouldn’t start another game for the Rockies.  He spent some time in the minors in 2009 before coming back as a reliever.  He wasn’t too bad to close out 2009 and even closed for a spell.  He would pitch another 42.7 innings in 49 appearances over 2010 and 2011 with rather awful results: 5.48 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 1.2 K/BB.  Nevertheless, he was a 25-year old lefty throwing 94+ MPH so there was still some hope.  Alas, the Rockies jettisoned him to the Red Sox.

That’s OK, surely they picked up a nice upside lottery ticket of their own in return given Morales’ youth, handedness and velocity.  What’s that?  They got actual lottery tickets?  Like Paulino, Morales was sold and unsubstantiated reports suggest that the Rockies spent the money on Powerball tickets during the last big drawing.

He was instantly better with the Red Sox slicing two walks off of his rate down to 3.1 in 32.3 innings out of their bullpen late last year.  He pumped his strikeout rate up to 8.6 K/9 as well.  After getting 23.7 more innings of solid relief out of him this year (3.04 ERA, 20 Ks), the Red Sox have given him another shot at starting.

The early returns are encouraging.  He brilliant through the first three before stumbling against the Yankees against whom he allowed four home runs in just 3.3 innings.  Even still, he has a 4.22 ERA as a starter (not bad especially when considering the 6 ER dud vs. NYY) with a ridiculously impressive 1.17 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 and 5.2 K/BB in 21.3 innings.  And the Rockies got nothing for this guy.  OK, not nothing, they got cash, but that’s really nothing on the baseball landscape.

Rotoworld posted an update (I don’t see a way to link to individual updates from RW) under both Morales and Paulino’s profiles around the time they were being shopped that included this nugget: “The Rox are fed up with both pitchers, but they’re both out of options and they don’t want to lose them without getting anything in return.”  Whoops.  Didn’t quite achieve that.

The real question is why were they so fed up with the two?  It seems both were given awfully short leashes before being cast out for some money.  For an organization that has long been starved for pitching, how can you really justify giving up on one of the hardest throwers in baseball (Paulino) and a young lefty with his own incredible velocity (Morales)?

While that issue likely falls at the feet of Dan O’Dowd and his front office team, the coaching staff doesn’t get off scot-free as both pitchers began exhibiting some of their potential immediately after they left Colorado.  First off, I think they improperly deployed both.  But even when the Red Sox used Morales as a reliever, he was much better with them.  How did they instantly cut his walk rate like that?  That can’t be blamed on Coors Field.

I don’t have all the answers here, but these look like a couple of inexcusably bad moves on the part of the Rockies.  And I didn’t even dive into the case of Esmil Rogers who was recently sold to the Indians and instantly turned into a far better pitcher than he was with Colorado.

His scant 13.3 inning sample isn’t enough to make any sweeping judgments from, but again, how does he go from a 4.5 BB/9 (and 6.3 in 25.7 IP this year) with the Rockies to 0.7 with the Indians?  How is a 96 MPH hurler just sold away for no talent in return?  I realize there are more hard throwers available these days (seems every pen has a 95+ guy or three), but that doesn’t mean they should be given away.

Maybe it is time for a full scale regime change within the Rockies from top to bottom as they simply don’t seem to be making the most of their talent whether when deploying it on the field (coaching) or when turning into assets once they deem it to no longer worthy of the organization’s time (front office).

 

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Team Specific | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 07.4.2012

Paul’s 24 to Target

(Ed. note – This will likely be it for the week on PaulSporer.com.  I was going to split it up, but decided to give you all 5,000+ words at once.  I may have something up for Friday, otherwise look for my stuff at BP and then back here next week.)

We have flipped the calendar to July, we’re officially beyond labeling a player’s stat line as a hot or cold “start”*, the All-Star break is right around the corner and trade season is kicking into high gear in both fantasy and real baseball.  With that, I wanted to take an opportunity to highlight my favorite starting pitcher trade targets.  Why 24?  Because it’s my favorite number, that’s really the only reason.

* let’s be honest, this probably should’ve stopped around Memorial Day, but I heard it a lot throughout June.

There is a range of talent within this list so it’s not just a bunch of aces leaving you saying, “No f’n duh!” though some will be entirely unsurprising (“what, Paul likes Hamels?? Weeeiiirrrdddd”), but they represent the group of guys I’d be buying via trade or definitely hanging onto if I already had them on my team.

They aren’t necessarily ranked in order, but look at it more as a talent spectrum with the better guys clustered near the top and the riskier, less-established arms in the 20s.  The exclusion of guys doesn’t mean I don’t like them (obviously acquire Justin Verlander if you can at a reasonable price, but he’s guaranteed to cost two arms and nine legs), these are just my 24 favorites to target.

1. Cole Hamels – I didn’t waste any time with him, did I?  I still don’t think he is universally treated like the ace that he is and that means you may not have to pay ace-level prices for him via trade.  This is especially true with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee pitching at peak, which they obviously aren’t with the former on the disabled list and the latter struggling at times and not getting any support when he’s excelling.

This doesn’t mean you are going to steal him from a leaguemate for Carlos Lee and Justin Masterson, but he rarely costs a price commensurate with his value like a Verlander or Stephen Strasburg.  He is a four-category star (10 wins even on the Phillies, while Lee has 0 showing you just how random the stat can be) with bankable strikeouts, ERA and WHIP and pacing toward a career-high in wins after reaching 15 just once in his career.

2. Madison Bumgarner – Despite posting great ratios (2.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) in his first four starts, his peripherals were a bit wobbly (4.6 K/9, 1.6 K/BB) which was a bit unnerving especially for those expecting an ace-level season out of him.  Since then he has a 2.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP backed by 8.5 K/9 and 5.4 K/BB rates in 86.3 innings of work.

That is despite giving up exactly four runs in five of the 12 outings.  He has been virtually unhittable in the other seven giving up an average of 1 run (four w/1 ER, one w/2 ER and a shutout).  He has three double-digit strikeout outings in that span as well.  In short, he has been the beast we were hoping to see in 2012.  The best part is that he is just 22 years old so he works for those trading for 2012 and those trading with an eye on 2013.

3. David Price – Price is rounding into form as the season wears on.  While his strikeout rate and WHIP improve month over month, his ERA is incrementally on the rise, though a 3.29 peak as we saw in June is hardly reason for concern.  I’m far more interested in the first two factors as he continues to miss more bats and allow fewer baserunners.

As the Rays move toward being whole again (namely getting Evan Longoria back) and stabilizing the defense, his and this next guy’s improved groundball rates will pay bigger dividends.  This franchise isn’t used to spotty D in recent years, but the shuffling in and out of reserves who were supposed to play sparingly throughout the year has compromised their usually razor-sharp defense.   Price could actually get better in the dog days and improve upon his 2.92 ERA, while this guy almost assuredly will…

4. James Shields – Another guy that anyone who has read my work for a while is completely unsurprised to see gracing a list like this.  I’m a huge Shields fan and while things haven’t gone exactly according to plan this year, I foresee improvements in the near future.  He, too, will benefit from a more solid defense as his groundball rate is at a career-high 54%, up from last year’s 46% which was a previous career-high.  Meanwhile he has improved his strikeout rate with only little harm to his walk rate (2.8 BB/9, up from 2.4).

He is the first guy on the list who you can probably acquire at a significant discount compared to his value since the 4.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are pretty ugly right now.  The danger is that this become a mini-2010 as his skills were great that year yet he ended up with a 5.18 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  I don’t see a 5.18 ERA coming, but he needs the defense to start turning his groundballs into more outs and he himself needs to sharpen up with runners on.  I believe he will.

5. Johnny Cueto – Being the unabashed strikeout love I am, you might be surprised to see Cueto on this list, but I just love what he is doing these days.  I’ve watched his last few outings to get a better feel for the 2012 iteration and I came away impressed.  What he lacks in strikeouts (6.6 K/9), he makes up for in groundballs (49%) which is my second favorite skill of a pitcher.  He has a four-seamer and sinker that both sit around 93 MPH and he peppers the zone with both.  Meanwhile he pounds his 83-84 MPH changeup low in the zone, but also down out of the zone (22% of them are out of the nine square strikezone).

He continues to lower his walk rate, too, dropping down to 2.1 BB/9 this year making his strikeout rate more palatable.  He is going deeper into games this year as well averaging 6.7 innings per outing, a number on the rise yearly since 2009.  His next hurdle is a 200-inning season, a figure he is tracking toward this year (on pace for 223 innings in 33 starts).  Obviously if strikeouts are your main need, Cueto isn’t for you, but he delivers everywhere else.

6. Josh Johnson – The start of a player’s season, whether good or bad, can have a lasting effect that often skews the perception of that player for the rest of the season.  Take Johnson for example.  I think a lot of folks in the fantasy community would say he’s having kind of a “meh” season (if not worse) if you asked them their thoughts on him without showing them a stat sheet.  If you brought his 3.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP into the mix, they would probably feel justified in their assessment.

However, a look into his game log shows that he struggled to work the kinks out after spending most of 2011 on the shelf, but turned a corner in early May and has been quite excellent since then.  The Padres tattooed him for six runs in 2.7 innings in Petco back on May 4th pushing his ERA up to 6.61.  To that point, he had gone more than six innings just twice and completed the seventh just once.  Since then he has a 2.47 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 66 innings across 10 starts going fewer than six innings just once and going seven or more in six of the 10.

His strikeout rate is at 7.8 K/9 in that stretch with a strong 3.0 K/BB.  The strikeouts aren’t up a ton from those first six starts (7.5 K/9), but his walks are done a ton (2.2 K/BB) as he has walked 19 in the 10 starts after 12 in those first six.  He isn’t 100% back to 2010-2011 Josh Johnson, but he isn’t far off and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran off a stretch of vintage JJ starts at some point later this season.

7. Yovani Gallardo – I know I have been beating this drum since early May, but if you lift Gallardo’s two starts against the Cardinals and look at his numbers, he has a 2.80 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  His walk rate also drops from 4.1 BB/9 to 3.7.  I realize you can’t cherry-pick starts, but if you just avoid his St. Louis starts (he’s always struggled against them), then Gallardo is still the stud we expected him to be this year.

Even with the Cardinals starts, his bottom line numbers are palatable (3.87 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), though hardly star level.  His walk rate has regressed severely after he showed tons of improvement down to a very strong 2.6 BB/9 last year.  He can be successful walking that many, but it obviously eats into his margin for error.  He can be a star if he just gets it back to 3.5 or better.  I am still all-in on Gallardo.

8. Mat Latos – I have stood by Latos all season long and it is finally paying big dividends with back-to-back complete games (1 ER in each).  Home runs look like the primary culprit for his 4.42 ERA as he has allowed 1.6 HR/9, however it isn’t really a consistent issue so much as it is a few bouts of gopheritis really hampering him.  He has allowed 2+ home runs three times this year and those are three of his four worst outings (the other was against those blasted Cardinals).

He allowed five solo shots to the Rockies (not in Coors believe it or not), three in Cleveland and a pair to the Astros at home.  In those outings, he gave up five, seven and five earned runs.  Also of note is that his problems are incorrectly being tied to his shift into the Great American Ballpark.  He has actually fared much better at home (3.47 ERA) than on the road (5.92) despite a better strikeout rate (9.7 compared to 7.4 at home) and nearly equal K/BB rate (3.2 compared to 3.3 at home).

His 3.61 road xFIP suggest brighter days ahead away from home.  Meanwhile, after an ugly 5.7 K/9 in April, he has a 9.4 K/9 in 69 innings since so he could be in for a huge second half as an across-the-board contributor.  On the heels of those complete games, his price has likely risen, but you may also have the effect of some wanting to parlay the outings into an opportunity to dump Latos at a peak.  I think there are more peaks in his future.

9. Adam Wainwright – Getting pummeled by the Pirates (7 ER on 11 H in 5 IP) might seem like the end of the world for someone of Wainwright’s caliber, but you might be surprised to learn that the Pirates scored the most runs in baseball during the month of June (146) and led the NL in home runs (39).  So it’s not as bad as it would seem at first blush.  Wainwright has been a rollercoaster ride during his return from Tommy John Surgery, which shouldn’t be too surprising.

Expected him to be vintage Wainwright right out of the gate would be stupid.  So while the peripheral skills have been pretty close to 2009-2010 Wainwright, he still has his off games.  For example, he had a stretch of four starts in June where he posted a 2.70 ERA with 27 Ks in 27 innings, but he sandwiched that run with a pair of 7 ER outings (including the most recent one against the Pirates).

He is still a work in progress in terms getting back to his elite level, but I think the flameout starts will be fewer and farther between as the season wears on.  I think the Cardinals have handled him masterfully with just two starts over 110 pitches and only seven over 100.  He didn’t even hit the century mark until his sixth start.  As much as they need him with Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia on the shelf, they know that pushing him beyond his limits will only result in him joining his fallen teammates on the disabled list.

10. Ian Kennedy – Kennedy was amazing last year, there is no denying that: 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 21-4 record in 222 innings.  He had an 8.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.  His BABIP, LOB and HR/FB rates all beat league averages which aided his 2.88 ERA compared to his 3.50 xFIP.  His skills have actually been a tick better this year (8.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9) yet his ERA has skyrocketed to 4.20 thanks in part to a leveling out of his BABIP, LOB and HR/FB rates.  His 3.96 xFIP says the ERA probably regressed a bit too far.

These are skills to invest in and now is the optimal time with his ERA up over 4.00.  You’re unlikely to find someone selling him at a bargain basement price, but there is no way you still have to pay for 2011 Kennedy and he could be that guy from here on out.  We even saw glimpses of it in June, but he was just inconsistent as you can see from earned runs allowed in the month: 0, 6, 2, 5, 1.

He seems to have worked through the home run issue that got him throughout May as he allowed 2 HR in three of his six outings.  And as a flyball pitcher in that home ballpark, home runs will be a big key to his success for better or worse.  I’m betting on better.

11. Matt Garza – Cherry-pick alert.  Garza was brilliant through his first seven starts (2.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) before suffering through his worst two outings of the years during which he allowed 13 runs (12 earned) in eight innings thanks in large part to five home runs.  Since then, he has been solid with a 3.72 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 36.3 innings.  The kicker?  Those two outings were against Houston and Pittsburgh, both on the road so you can’t blame the wind in Wrigley.  Minute Maid can be prone to longballs, but PNC Park is a pitcher’s haven.

I know boiling it down to two starts seems simplistic, but he allowed five of his 12 home runs in that outing and he has been a 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP pitcher outside of those outings.  He basically had a bad week.  A couple of rough outings can still skew the bottom line enough to distort how good someone has been as I mentioned with Gallardo and his St. Louis starts, and also Garza in these two starts.

12. Matt Moore – I know better than to jump on the hype train with unproven pitchers, but I still fell victim to it with Moore.  His incredible stretch at the end of last year was a limited sample, but he was so good and those flawless mechanics are hypnotizing.  As much as I bought in on him, I was at all surprised to see him stumble out of the gate because that’s just how it goes so often with inexperienced pitchers.  That said, he is immensely talented and even while struggling he was showing positive signs.  I firmly believed early on that he would get better as the season progressed.

So far that is how it has played out.  He sprinkled a few good starts in during his first nine, but still finished the run with an ERA slightly north of 5.00 at an ugly 5.07 in 49.7 innings.  He hadn’t completed seven innings to that point.  He did so for the first time in his 10th start (the incredible Memorial Day showdown between he and Chris Sale) and has done so three other times since then, too.  In those seven starts, he has a 3.18 ERA in 45.3 innings with 45 strikeouts and just 18 walks (compared to 27 in those first 49.7 innings).

Moore still has room for growth this year, specifically with the walk rate as a 3.6 BB/9 (his rate in the 45.3 IP sample) is hardly special.  You aren’t going to see Moore discounted even a little bit in keeper leagues (which doesn’t deter me from buying), but the ERA north of 4.00 after 95 innings has very likely lowered his price (which was sky-high on draft day) in re-draft leagues and I’d be ready to take advantage of that.

13. James McDonald – I am not averse to buying high on guys when I believe they are for real and as the driver of the James McDonald Bandwagon, I obviously believe in him, but his inclusion is as much about letting fantasy managers know they don’t have to sell high for fear of a second half implosion.  There were 16 pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA last year and there are 21 in the 2012 group.  There is no reason McDonald can’t be one of the 2012 group by season’s end.

For me, command and control were the missing ingredients for McDonald to reach his potential so it’s no surprise that chief among his improvements this year include a career-best 2.7 BB/9, down from 4.1 BB/9 a year ago.  Meanwhile, his breaking stuff has been downright unhittable, especially his curveball.  In the 73 plate appearances ending on a curveball, batters have a .096/.096/.192 line with 31 strikeouts.  They haven’t fared much better against his slider: .143/.194/.222 with 29 strikeouts.

This isn’t smoke and mirrors.  He has made some real improvements as a pitcher and should remain a quality asset for the remainder of the season.

14. Jonathon Niese – Niese is posting a career-high strikeout rate thus far at 8.6 K/9 aiding career-bests in ERA (3.55) and WHIP (1.27), too.  The intriguing part is that he is some home run bad luck (19% HR/FB rate) away from an even lower ERA as we see from his 3.36 xFIP.  Always a groundball pitcher, Niese has taken it to new heights the last two years at 52% and 51% the last two years (identical 1.8 GB/FB rates).

Niese is hovering around 50% availability at ESPN and Yahoo! and I just don’t get it.  This lefty seems to be improving year over and year, plus at 25-years old, he has keeper potential, too.  He is someone to invest in regardless of league type.  By the way, I typed the Niese portion on Tuesday afternoon and then he went out and threw eight innings of 1-run ball against the Phillies.  Not the stiffest competition, but that should cut into his availability at ESPN and Yahoo!, so act quickly.

15. Dan Haren – I know, you’re surprised that Haren wasn’t listed immediately after Hamels.  I haven’t completely lost faith in my boy Haren, but I am at least a bit concerned.  I know he was dealing with some back soreness early in May when he labored through a trio of starts that he would normally cut through with ease (6.61 ERA at Min, vs. Oak and at SD).  He bounced back with a 1.29 ERA in his next three including outings against the Yankees and Rangers.

Since then he has just been bad (7.94 ERA in four starts) and while you can give him a break for going into Coors, that one was actually his best outing in terms of earned runs (4).  He allowed five earned runs to the Dodgers which I believe accounted for 68% of their June runs.  Through it all, he is still fanning more than last year (7.7 K/9) and maintaining an elite K/BB ratio (3.7) and I just can’t quit him.

His value may never be lower so now is the time to buy in if you’re a believer like me.  I also typed Haren’s piece Tuesday afternoon and he went out and had yet another garbage outing further depressing his value.  You may have to hold your nose while proposing a trade to acquire him, but I don’t think we’re at Tim Lincecum levels with him.  The All-Star break will hopefully help him get right.

16. Jordan Zimmermann – I put some lofty expectations on Zimm heading into the 2012 season and he has essentially delivered.  No one is complaining about a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but a meager 4-6 record and modest 6.0 K/9 have kept him from a truly special season.  The former is hardly his fault as the Nats don’t have a great offense and have often scratched out wins late in the game.  The latter seems to be more of a choice by Zimmermann.

He seems to be one of those guys who will go for the strikeouts when he needs them and take them when hitters are vulnerable, otherwise he is plenty happy to induce weak contact and conserve pitches through shorter at-bats. He has outings with 9,7, 6, 6, 6, 6 & 5 Ks all in seven or fewer innings.  He also has a pair of 1 K outings during which he induced 16 and 14 groundballs, including his start in Colorado where keeping the ball down is paramount to succeeding (to wit he threw seven 1-run innings).

He is probably going to be a guy in the 6.0-6.5 K/9 range, which I can live with if he maintains a 50% or better groundball and sub-2.0 BB/9 rates to go with it.  He essentially becomes a Cueto-type at that point.  These kinds of guys have to be seen to get a better handle on their game because those who just look at the stats will be unsatisfied and automatically assume regression is coming since their ERAs have such big splits from their xFIPs.

17. Edwin Jackson – He was in the midst of a special first half before falling victim to Coors Field (8 ER in 3 IP).  In his other 14 starts, he allowed more than three runs just twice.  He continues to develop as a pitcher and get incrementally better.  For the first time since his season in Detroit, he has a WHIP that doesn’t hurt you, in fact it is very helpful at 1.13.  He has become a rather reliable asset since 2009 and at 28, there is still a bit of upside, too.  That is exactly the kind of guy to invest in, especially since he never carries an exorbitant price tag.

18. Phil Hughes – Home runs are really the only thing keeping Hughes from a great season.  He gave up at least one in each of his first 12 starts, snapped the streak for just a game and then gave up four to the Braves during a home run derby in Yankee Stadium with temps pushing up toward 100.  He doesn’t get a reprieve just because of the park and weather, though, if for no other reason than the fact that he will have to deal with both all season long.

He has finally had back-to-back homer-less games and unsurprisingly he has managed 16 innings of 2-run ball with 12 strikeouts and just two walks.  And both games were at home, so that is also encouraging.  He came out of his May 1st start with a 7.46 ERA, but has a 3.34 ERA since despite that stretch including outings with seven and six earned runs.  In other words, he has been great in his last 11 starts.

A heavy flyball pitcher with home run issues in that ballpark means there is probably a cap on how low his ERA can go (probably around 3.70 or so).  To reach that mark for the season he would be around 3.00-3.10 the rest of the way, but even if he is just a 3.70 guy for the remainder of 2012, he still has plenty of value with his strikeouts (8.5 K/9) and heightened win potential as a Yankee (9 W already this year).

19. Gavin Floyd – Despite the best strikeout rate of his career (8.3 K/9) and a walk rate right in line with what we have come to expect from Floyd (2.7 BB/9), he has posted his worst ERA since 2007 (4.91).  He just hasn’t been consistent this year.  Every time he appears to get going, he flames out for a start or three.  So why am I buying?  Well, apart from the quality skills profile (which also includes a consistent groundball lean; 1.1 GB/FB this year), Floyd has also shown himself to be a better pitcher later in the season.

For his career, he has a 4.87 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 2.0 K/BB in 620 first half innings and a 4.06 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 K/BB in 435 second half innings.  Half-season trends aren’t the most stable splits so I don’t trust them blindly, but Floyd’s skills are such that I would be buying anyway and his penchant for turning it up in the second half only adds to the desire to acquire him.

20. Doug Fister – One of the worries for the 2012 season was that the infield defense of the Tigers would heavily impact both Fister and Rick Porcello negatively as groundball pitchers.  Unfortunately, that has played out as both have bloated .339 BABIPs with Fister allowing 10.7 H/9 and Porcello at 11.2 H/9.  Still, I look at Fister’s peripherals and see someone who has to be better than his 4.61 ERA.  He has a 7.6 K/9 and 3.8 K/BB in 54.7 innings, but the hits just pile up and lead to meltdown innings.

Anecdotally, the defense has extended approximately 53 of the 55 innings he has pitched in with poor defense giving the opposition a fourth, fifth or twelfth out.  Rumors are swirling that the Tigers will look to address second base during the trade deadline and hopefully they look for a defense-first option.  Jhonny Peralta has been fine at shortstop, not great and not awful (-0.1 UZR), but the corners have been as bad as feared with both Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder posting -3.6 and -3.9 UZRs.

UZRs aren’t terribly trustworthy in full year samples let alone three month samples, but as someone who has watched every Tigers game, those numbers feel pretty accurate.  All that said, the defense was garbage during his first eight starts and he had a 2.72 ERA.

His start in Texas was the worst of his career and that can’t be laid at the feet of the defense and he followed that up with an outing that just went off the rails after three excellent innings.  He was singled to death in fourth inning some of which was poor defense.  Anyway, I’m rambling at this point.  On the heels of two of the worst starts in his career, now is the time to buy.  He will be fine with these skills.

21. Jarrod Parker – A hard-throwing super prospect with great stuff and a favorable home park is easy to get behind.  Walks are an issue (4.4 BB/9), but he showed some improvement there from May to June (he only had six innings in April).  I think they will remain his biggest issue this year, but that park can cover a lot of mistakes so the key to his success will be keeping his head afloat on the road which he has done with aplomb thus far including seven shutout innings in Coors Field.

He has given up more than two runs just twice this year (though both were 6 ER outings) leading to a 1.54 ERA in seven home starts.  Both of the ugly outings are on the road, but he has still maintained a 3.74 on the road.  At the very least, he is a worthy home-only spot starter for those of you in leagues where such roster management is possible (10/12 mixers, ideally with daily transactions).  I also see him adding strikeouts as the season wears on, too.

22. Michael Fiers – Where the heck did this guy come from?  At 27, Fiers feels like a journeyman, but he was drafted at 24 so it’s not like he has labored through the minors year after year.  He raced through the minors with impressive numbers at each level, though his age kept him from being much of a prospect and likely had some discounting the performance.

He doesn’t have overly impressive stuff, either, which is another reason he wasn’t exactly a blue chip prospect for the Brewers.  You can’t argue with the major league results, though.  It has been a tiny 39-inning sample, but he is striking out 9.4 per game and walking just 1.8 leading to a 2.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.  He has been a good bit below average with his HR/FB rate (4%), especially as a flyball pitcher so we can probably expect some regression there.

But the skills are rock solid and he should be usable across all formats even if he is more a 3.60ish ERA pitcher the rest of the way.  He has shown to have strong command and control throughout his pro career and a deception in his delivery that keeps hitters guessing.  Those elements do a lot to cover up a lack of raw stuff.

23. Brandon McCarthy – It’s not about skill with McCarthy, it’s all about health.  And right now, his health simply cannot be relied upon.  That makes him a worthy trade target though because it lowers the price.  By the way, if for some reason it doesn’t lower the price in your league, then just move on.  Love the pitcher, love the potential, hate the shoulder.  I didn’t deep dive into the numbers here because there is no real need, they’re great and they will likely continue to be great when he is pitching.  It’s just a matter of keeping him on the field consistently.

24. Joe Blanton – Maybe I’m just being sucked in by an NL-best 5.9 K/BB (OK, not maybe, I am), but I think Blanton’s best work is still ahead of him.  He doesn’t walk anyone (1.3 BB/9, also an NL-best) and he misses plenty of bats with a 7.7 K/9.  His 9.6% swinging strike rate is on a four year rise, too.  On the downside, perhaps he is finding his pitches in the zone too often as his 19 home runs and 115 hits are also “lead” the NL.  Of course, you don’t want to be leading those categories.

The control is there, he can miss bats and he limits walks, but in order to push these skills into better results, he needs to show some better command and put the ball where he wants it more often within the zone as opposed to where the hitters want it.  He is a speculative play worthy of NL-only leagues or deeper mixed leagues.  If you’re in dire need of WHIP with few options available to you, you could do worse than Blanton (1.25) especially since he brings some potential ERA upside along with him.

—

This will likely be it for the week on PaulSporer.com.  I was going to split it up, but decided to give you all 5,000+ words at once.  I may have something up for Friday, otherwise look for my stuff at BP and then back here next week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trading | 2 Comments »

Wednesday: 06.13.2012

Gio Gonzalez’s Breakout Season

It is hard to be overshadowed during a season when you have an 8-2 record, 2.35 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 and 3.0 K/BB in 73 innings.  And that doesn’t even mention the MLB best hit (5.3 H/9) and home run (0.1 HR/9… just 1 HR allowed) rates.  Alas such is life when you are teammates with Stephen Strasburg (he of the 7-1 record, 2.41 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and MLB-best 11.7 K/9 heading into his Wednesday afternoon start) as is the case for Washington’s Gio Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is in the midst of a Cy Young-worthy season with only his teammate standing in his way at this point.  I’m sorry, but Zack Greinke having a better fWAR than both of them shows a flaw in fWAR as far I am concerned.  Results have to count for something.  Greinke has been fantastic again in 2012 despite being saddled with a .350 BABIP that has no doubt contributed to his 1.22 WHIP, but part of that is on him.  Getting obliterated by the Cubs (8 ER in 3.7 IP) and the D’Backs (7 ER in 2.3 IP) no doubt elevated that BABIP so you can’t just blame the defense, claim bad luck and move on expecting things to regress to a more palatable level.

Strasburg’s biggest implosions are a pair of 4 ER outings, both of which still saw him last longer than either of Greinke’s.  Gonzalez, meanwhile, was popped by the Cubs in his opener (4 ER in 3.7 IP) and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER since including four scoreless outings of six or more innings.  Apologies for the tangent, I was just perturbed to see fWAR list Greinke at 3.0, Gio at 2.7 and Strasburg at 2.6.  How Strasburg is last among those three is beyond me.  Both Nats fan more than Greinke, he walks fewer than either and he is in the middle for home runs.  His ERA and WHIP are significantly* higher.

*significantly relative to the levels we’re discussing with these three this year, all of whom have been excellent

This is about Gonzalez, though.  An incredible left-handed talent, Gonzalez has been coming into his own the last few years as he works through his mid-20s.  Command and control have always been a problem for him as evidenced by the 4.4 BB/9 over his career.  He has shown incremental improvement yearly since first reaching the majors in 2008, though:

OK, improvement is a bit of a stretch for 2010 to 2011 as he simply walked one less batter in virtually the same amount of innings.  In fact, his 92 walks in 2010 didn’t even lead his league thanks to C.J. Wilson’s 93, but 2011’s 91 led all of baseball as he was the only one to reach 90.

So what has changed in Gonzalez that has elevated from a quality mid-rotation arm with potential to ace-level material (with only some of the potential showing) through the first two and a half months of the 2012 season?  Obviously shifting into the National League has aided some of the improvement as it is generally an easier league for pitchers to traverse due in part to the fact that they get to face their counterparts a couple of times a game and even when they aren’t, they are facing pinch hitting bench types instead of a DH.

So far in 2012, starting pitchers in the National League are 0.41 ERA, 0.05 WHIP, 0.4 K/9 and 0.2 BB/9 better than their American League counterparts.  Factoring those changes into Gonzalez’s current totals is a bit crude, but just for the sake ease it would push him to 2.76 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.   Among the reasons it is crude include the fact that the AL numbers are influenced by Oakland being the worst hitting team in that league and he wouldn’t face them.  Of course, he would also get to pitch in Oakland’s stadium which is very friendly to pitchers (Gio had a 2.63 ERA there the last two years).

FASTBALL VELOCITY/PERFORMANCE

Regardless of league, it is clear that Gonzalez is pitching as one of the best in baseball and his stuff would play anywhere.  He has enjoyed a slight velocity gain that has given his four-seam fastball and sinker more punch.  The four-seamer has improved from an average of 93.5 MPH to 94.1 MPH and he is throwing it more often going from 37% a year ago to 43% so far this year.  The result has been more swings-and-misses and fewer balls in play (naturally).

The sinker has gone from 92.8 MPH to 93.3 MPH.  He has been more selective with it throwing it 3% less than last year, but it is generating more swings-and-misses, too.  There are a few more balls in play with it percentage-wise, but a sharp rise in the groundball percentage with it suggests that batters aren’t exactly squaring it up.

More strikes, fewer balls and poorer contact from two pitches that make up 68% of his arsenal is the foundation to the stark improvement in Gio’s numbers.  The improvements in his four-seamer and sinker have spurred his surge in strikeouts, too, especially the four-seamer.

CURVEBALL PERFORMANCE

Gonzalez has a true hammer curveball.  It is his best pitch, his strikeout pitch, and one of the better ones across baseball.  He has taken it to another level this year.  First off, he has been more selective with it throwing it 20% of the time, down from 28% a season ago.  It is easily the lowest usage rate of his career, his first time below 25% in fact, and batters are having an even tougher time doing anything with it in 2012.  He is throwing it for a ball nearly 3% more at 45%, but he is generating more called strikes and whiffs with it, too.

He is commanding the pitch lower in the zone which has probably led to the rise in balls thrown with it, but has also left batters powerless against it yielding a filthy .225 OPS (yes, OPS) against the pitch.  There was nothing wrong with last year’s .524 OPS against the pitch, .225 is just… insane.  What comes after elite?  That’s what his curveball has been this year.  He has had 64 plate appearances end on curveballs and just five have been hits.  Nearly half, 30 to be exact, has been strikeouts while three have resulted in a walk.

CHANGEUP PERFORMANCE

A big improvement for Gonzalez has been the advancement of his changeup.  He used it just 8% of the time last year and while it still isn’t much more than an occasional pitch (11%), the results have dramatically improved.  He achieved all of one strikeout with the changeup a year ago in his 44 plate appearances that ended on the pitch.  This year has already seen 36 plate appearances end on changeups and 11 were strikeouts.  Batters are swinging 10% more often and missing 6% more often despite Gio putting it in the zone 5% less often.

He only threw it 2% of the time in 2-strike counts a year ago, whereas this year that number has risen to 9%.  He is trusting the pitch more and it isn’t letting him down.  Hitters can’t sit on the curveball expecting him to go to it in those counts like he did 44% of the time a season ago.  He is using the curve 32% of the time in those counts and the excess has been shifted to the four-seamer and changeup.

GOING FORWARD

Gonzalez is in the midst of a special season and the obvious question is whether or not he can maintain this level of success.  There is nothing he has done thus far that is ridiculously unsustainable especially for a pitcher as talented as Gonzalez.  The issue remains his elevated walk rate.  But it doesn’t preclude him from success.  When I first looked at Gio’s stat line for this year, it reminded me of Ubaldo Jimenez’s 2010 season.

Even while he was running up that insane 15-1 first half record, he was still walking 3.3 per game.  He ended the season with a 3.7 BB/9.  In fact, he and the 2009 iteration of Clayton Kershaw are the only two pitchers in the last three years to post a sub-3.00 ERA with a  3.7 BB/9 or higher, which is what Gonzalez has done thus far.  Gonzalez has a much better strikeout rate than either of those two had, but the common thread is that all three were eminently unhittable.  Kershaw led baseball with a 6.3 H/9 rate while Jimenez was at 6.7 H/9 in 2010.

Like I said, nothing in Gonzalez’s line is crazy and unsustainable, not even his .244 BABIP.  His infield defense is sound and continue to turn the weak groundball contact he generates into plenty of outs.  He has been at .274 and .287 the last two years, too, so it’s not like the .244 is a major outlier for him.  He will probably allow a few more home runs and not necessarily maintain a 1 per 73 inning rate (0.1 HR/9), but even regressing that out toward his career mark (0.8) won’t sink his ERA.  His xFIP is a very strong 2.91.

Then just imagine if his command and control show more improvement as the season goes along and he chisels away at the walk rate.  There is nothing in his line indicating that will happen, but it isn’t implausible as we watch the maturation of Gonzalez before our eyes.

I would still say he is the second best pitcher on his team, but the difference has been slight thus far.  They are a great righty-lefty combo atop a rotation while Jordan Zimmermann and Edwin Jackson have been great in their own right, too.  If you haven’t watched a Gonzalez start this season, I implore you to do so.  Not only will you have the added benefit of watching Bryce Harper play, but Gio has some of the most entertaining stuff in the game.

Plus, the Nationals announcing duo of Bob Carpenter and F.P. Santangelo is really good.  That statement was meant with some derision when I made it on Twitter, but I really think so.  Carpenter is a strong play-by-play by with a good voice and Santangelo offers tons of great insight.  The one downside I heard a few times was that they’re too “homery”, but I always compare that on a scale with Hawk Harrelson as the absolute worst & completely unlistenable, and they don’t even come close to that.  I think they call a straight up game reacting properly to great stuff the opposing team does even though it goes against their Nats.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Breakdown, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 06.6.2012

Brandon Beachy’s Strikeout Decline

Brandon Beachy seemingly emerged out of thin air last year to make 25 great starts for the Atlanta Braves.  His rookie campaign was injury shortened as he missed most of May and June limiting him to 142 innings, but his numbers were quite impressive.

While his 3.68 ERA was fourth (of five) among rookie hurlers with 100+ innings in the National League, his 10.7 K/9 led all MLB pitchers who threw 140+ innings.  His 1.21 WHIP was quite good, too.  In fact, everything about his stat profile said his ERA should’ve been better, evidenced further by his 3.16 xFIP.  His 1.0 HR/9 hurt with seven of 16 longshots including additional runners on base.

After all of that, many looked forward to the encore presentation of Beachy.  So far it has been nothing short of amazing.  He leads baseball with a 1.87 ERA and trails just a few guys for lead in WHIP with his 0.95 in 72 innings.  He has cut the flyball and line drive rates channeling it into a 9% increase in groundball rate (42%) resulting in a near-halving of his home run rate to 0.6 HR/9.

He has some good fortune and sparkling defensive support yielding a miniscule and league-best .207 BABIP.  Despite all that he is just 5-4 which is exhibit 5,938,291,764 of why win-loss record is virtually useless as a standalone judge for how a pitcher has fared.  So tired are his defenders from flashing the leather that they’ve given him just 6.4 runs per game, 50th-best among qualified starters in baseball.

While there is so much good going on in Beachy’s season, it is hard not to notice the 3.6 strikeouts he has shaved off of his rate down to 7.1 K/9.  He has actually cut his strikeout rate by more Henderson Alvarez (2.6), Derek Lowe (2.7) and Kevin Correia (3.1) have this season.  By maintaining his walk rate and matching last year’s 2.9 BB/9, he still has a solid if unspectacular 2.5 K/BB (61st among qualified starters).  But why the stark drop in punch outs?

He reached the majors in 2010 after spending most his season in the AA bullpen followed by seven strong starts AAA where he posted a 9.5 K/9 and 8.0 K/BB in 46 innings.  In three late-season starts for the big league club he was solid, especially for a 23-year old rookie.  He had a 3.00 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 2.1 K/BB in his 15 innings.

His 2011 breakout was spurred by the development of a slider, a pitch he didn’t even throw in his three late-season starts in 2010.  He had a strikeout per inning during those three 2010 starts though none of his three pitches (fastball, changeup, curveball) was his specific strikeout pitch.  The slider became his most-used secondary pitch at 19% easily outpacing the changeup (11%) and curveball (10%).  It turned the strikeout rate we saw in his 2010 season, both in the majors and minors, into something real.

Not only did batters put together a measly .182/.223/.339 line in plate appearances that ended on sliders, but they struck 40% of the time on it.  He generated 52 of his 169 strikeouts (31%) on the pitch burying it low and away to righties, down and in on lefties.  Righties flailed at it while lefties swung over the top of it.

The fastball (28%), changeup (22%) and curveball (17%) contributed plenty to the bottom line which isn’t surprising as you aren’t going to carry a 10.7 K/9 with one pitch for strikeouts (unless you’re a reliever).  The slider was his secondary pitch of choice when it counted, though.  He threw his fastball 52% of the time in 2-strike counts and his slider 29% of the time while the change and curve were at 9% and 10%, respectively.

His pitch usage in 2-strike counts this year isn’t really any different with the slider being used a little less at 25%, the fastball up to 55% and the change (8%) and curveball (12%) almost exactly the same.  So he hasn’t changed his approach for garnering strikeouts, but the pitch selection just hasn’t been as effective (obviously).

Batters are laying off the fastball and slider much more with precipitous declines in the swing-through rates on both with two strikes.  Both are being put into play more often, though obviously with good results based on his great results and tiny BABIP.  Only 6% of the fastballs in play last year were groundballs, this year it is up to 11% while the slider has risen from 10% to 12%.  Again, that is in 2-strike counts.  Perhaps the more patient approach from hitters is causing Beachy to find the zone more often with the slider.

So far it hasn’t hurt him at all, but in general allowing more balls in play is obviously more dangerous than fanning a guy.  The 5% increase in ball rate on 2-strike counts from the slider cannot be ignored, either.  Those could just be waste pitches as he tries to get batters to chase as they did often last year, but it looks like batters are laying off of the bad ones and waiting for something more hittable.

Hittable absolutely being a relative phrase because as while they aren’t striking out on the pitch, they certainly aren’t doing anything worthwhile with the slider.  Opponents have a .172/.180/.207 (yes, .387 OPS!) against the pitch overall.  Beachy has clearly traded those strikeouts in for tons of weak contact which can be an effective path toward success, too.  Yes it is unlikely that he can sustain a .207 BABIP over the season, but he doesn’t need to end the year with a 1.87 ERA/0.95 WHIP to be successful.

How has the lower strikeout rate impacted his ability to go deeper into games?  One issue with Beachy in his rookie season was his sub-6.0 innings per start rate.  He only found the seventh inning three times in his 25 starts and the eighth inning just once.  He was awesome at six inning outings, though.  He had 13 of them and gave up more than three runs just three times.

He has raised his average innings per start from five and two-thirds to just about six and two-thirds.  Over the course of a 32-start season, that’s a 29-inning increase and he is currently pacing toward a 211 inning season.  With 34% of his season banked at such an incredible ERA, he has a lot of wiggle room.  While it is reasonable to expect some regression, it would be surprising if the bottom randomly fell out for Beachy.

There were 16 pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA last year including the likes of Ryan Vogelsong and Jeremy Hellickson, both of whom didn’t have the skills that Beachy previously displayed and is currently displaying.  But even if we are conservative and just give Beachy a 3.00 on the dot, he still has 138.7 innings of 3.57 ERA.  You don’t have to sell high to avoid apocalypse.  You can, especially if the returns significantly help your team, but Beachy has been great this year and he is still fooling hitters even with the diminished strikeout rate.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Wednesday: 05.30.2012

Matt Moore’s Big Memorial Day

Lost in the shuffle of celebrating Chris Sale’s incredible 15 strikeout performance from Memorial Day is the fact that heralded prospect Matt Moore had far and away his best start of the season in the same game.  Moore, a top three prospect anywhere you looked this preseason, has been consistently overshadowed by the opposing pitcher in his starts this season and while Monday was no different in that respect, it finally wasn’t because of Moore’s shortcomings.

Moore parlayed a pair of late season starts, one in the Bronx and one in Arlington during the playoffs, along with an exquisite minor league track record into a lofty preseason ranking on prospect lists everywhere.  In many instances he out-ranked either Mike Trout or Bryce Harper including topping both at Baseball Prospectus as Kevin Goldstein slotted him atop the list.  He never landed lower than third in the lists I saw.

The polished lefty had 497 minor league innings under his belt posting a 2.64 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 and 3.3 K/BB.  That said, just 53 of the innings came in AAA and his MLB experience amounted to all of 19 innings.

I am not pointing any fingers when it comes to preseason praise as I went against my own code and heaped plenty of praise on the rookie myself.  Despite pointing out the pitfalls of teammates of David Price and Jeremy Hellickson during their rookie seasons, both uber-prospects like Moore, I still slotted him 10th in the American League projecting some Strasburgian success right out of the gate.

The control issues that plagued him early in his minor league career have been present in many of his starts this year resulting in a 4.4 BB/9 and preventing him from even seeing an eighth inning as high pitch counts have limited him to an average of 5.7 innings per start.   He was in control on Monday and while he still didn’t see the eighth inning, he finish the seventh for the first time all year.

He was pulled after 104 pitches which just so happens to be exactly how many pitches he has averaged per start topping out at 109 and falling below 100 just once (97 in his May 22nd start).  He threw a season-high 73 strikes, 18 of which were swinging, also a high watermark for the season.  Strikeouts haven’t been an issue this year as his 9.2 K/9 is 10th-best in baseball, but Monday’s 10 were due in large part to Moore being in control of the hitters as opposed to neither Moore nor batter knowing exactly where the ball is going from pitch-to-pitch.

Great stuff can generate strikeouts at an elite clip whether it is paired with command and control or not, just ask Nolan Ryan among many others.  That’s why it is important to make the distinction between Moore’s previous nine starts and the Memorial Day gem.  While everything was working for him, it was the secondary stuff that really stood out, specifically his 70-grade curveball.

Baseball America rated the pitch as such on the 20-80 scale in their 2012 prospect guide, but he hasn’t thrown the 70-grade version too often this year.  On Monday, it might’ve been 80-grade.  He threw 15 benders, eight of which were swung (flailed?) at and four of which resulted in punch outs.  That doubled his season total for strikeouts on the curveball.  Meanwhile he got four more strikeouts out of his 21 changeups boosting his season total to 13 on the pitch.

Here are the four curveball strikeouts as well as an additional strong curveball that he threw in the seventh inning at-bat to Alexei Ramirez that resulted in one of the foursome:

How does he build on this game and enjoy more success as he continues through his rookie season?  He still needs to be more pitch efficient.  In the first inning alone he threw 15 pitches in two strike counts.  He had Alejandro De Aza and Paul Konerko 0-2 and Gordon Beckham 1-2.  He threw seven more pitches and eventually hit De Aza.  He eventually fanned Konerko and Beckham, but Konerko drew him full from 0-2 while Beckham fouled a pair of extra pitches off before going down.

It appears as though he is going to get about 105 pitches per outing so if he wants to go deep into games, he is going to have to average about 13-15 pitches per inning (that would give him seven-eight innings).  He is currently averaging 18.3 per inning.  His 4.14 pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) is the third highest amongst qualified starters just behind Felix Doubront (4.20) and Neftali Feliz (4.19).  Coincidentally enough, Sale is just behind Moore at 4.13 in his 57.7 innings.

Strikeout pitchers are naturally going to have a high P/PA than other pitchers, but consider that Moore’s 62% first strike percentage is highest by an average of 7% among those in the top 10 of P/PA meaning he isn’t taking advantage of his ability to get out ahead of hitters.  By getting ahead of hitters at that clip, he should still be able to generate strikeouts without expiring so much of allotted pitch count.

He will get it and there will be more and more glimpses of greatness on par with or better than Monday’s outing.  I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him get better as the season wore on.  In fact, I expect it.  While his in-game pitch count appears to be capped around the 105-mark, his innings for 2012 shouldn’t have any sort of cap that would leave him short of a full season’s allotment.

He threw 174 innings between the minors and majors (postseason included) last year so even if the Rays conservatively allotted an extra 25 this year, he could throw 199.  At his current pace of 32 starts with 5.7 innings per outing, he would throw about 182 innings.  That would still leave him plenty for a playoff run should the Rays win the division or secure one of the two wildcards.

In keeper leagues, he is no doubt coveted as one of the best in the game as he is still contributing this year and has an excellent long term outlook, but you might be able to get a discount in redraft leagues.  I would definitely explore the option and do so immediately as Monday might have cut into that discount already.  It may take still another month before we see some consistency out of him from start-to-start, but the second half of the season should yield more positive results than what we have seen thus far.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, GIFtastic, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 05.29.2012

Roy Oswalt in 2012

It is being reported that the Texas Rangers have won the Roy Oswalt Sweepstakes, a not-too-shocking result on the heels of the Neftali Feliz injury, the ineffectiveness of Scott Feldman in his stead and the reticence of the Rangers to put Alexi Ogando back into the rotation in light of how excellent he has been as a bullpen asset.

The Rangers were always a frontrunner for Oswalt and while the Feliz injury may have expedited the process to get him signed, the Roy Halladay injury and subsequent DL’ing may have been the final push to get something done officially.  I don’t necessarily believe the Phillies would’ve made a big push for Oswalt, though.  Their staff can withstand a two month absence of Halladay as it is their abysmal hitting that leaves them tied for last in the division, four games behind the Washington Nationals.

What should the Rangers expect in an abbreviated season from the 34-year old righty making his foray into the American League?

They are getting a pitcher coming off of his worst season in a lot of respects: ERA, WHIP, fastball velocity, strikeout rate and innings pitched.  His xFIP of 3.95 was just 0.02 better than his career-worst mark set in 2007.  From 2002-2008, Oswalt was one of the most reliable starters in the game averaging 32 starts and 211 innings per season with 2003 standing as the only season that saw him throw fewer than 209 innings or make fewer than 32 starts (127 IP in 21 starts losing time to a recurring groin injury).

The 2009 season was the first time that back issues cropped up costing him some time and snapping his streak of five straight 200+ inning seasons (181 in 30 starts).  He bounced back with a vengeance in 2010 splitting time between Houston and Philly and posting his best ERA (2.76) and strikeout rate (8.2 K/9) since his rookie season (2.73 ERA & 9.1 K/9 in 142 IP).

Then last year he was limited to just 139 innings as the lower back issues returned and put him on the disabled list two separate times.  It clearly hampered his production as pointed earlier with the diminished velocity and suppressed production compared to his career marks.  He was still above average, but definitely vintage Oswalt.

A 34-year old Oswalt returning from back issues and trying his hand in the American League for the first time isn’t likely to be vintage Oswalt, either.  Having pitched in Houston for so many years, he was guaranteed interleague time against the Rangers so he has a sizeable in that ballpark.  The obvious caveat is that he had to face the Texas lineup which has seemingly always been good even when they were a third or fourth place team in their division.

A snapshot of his stats in Texas, against the AL as a whole, for his career and in the last three years shows the disparity in production in that ballpark.

Oswalt has always been a groundball pitcher with career 1.5 GB/FB and 47% groundball rates, however there has been a shift in recent years as his flyball rate has crept up a bit.  He still has a discernible groundball lean, but more flyballs than ever, too.  After ranging above 32% with his flyball rate just once from 2002-2008, Oswalt has been at 36% each of the last three years.  Meanwhile his groundball rate, which used to sit high-40s/low-50s, has been between 43-46% the last three years.

It is hard to even foster a guess what kind of peripherals we will see from Oswalt given the wide range of his recent track record and the great unknown of his back issues. Last year’s 6.0 K/9, if a new level for aged Oswalt, will likely erode some transitioning to the AL leaving him only marginally better than Feldman.  His 2.1 BB/9 from last year is significantly better than anything Feldman has ever posted, though, and the limiting of free passes has long been a calling card of Oswalt’s.

It will come down the command of his stuff.  With last year’s walk rate as good as ever, but the strikeout and hits allowed rates at their nadir, Oswalt was clearly displaying plenty of control but not much command as he pounded the zone with too many hittable pitches.  This isn’t Andy Pettitte/Roger Clemens hired gun stuff, rather it is a pitcher who likely knew he couldn’t make it through an entire season so he sat out the first two months in order to save some bullets.

Keep that in mind as your rush to place your FAAB bid or pick up Oswalt off of your waiver wire.  His name alone will draw attention and likely has him scooped off of any fastest-finger waiver wires, but I would be cautious in my expectations, especially in weekly transaction leagues.

Is he really more than a spot starter at best in 10 and 12 team mixed leagues?  How much of his struggles in Texas were the lineup and how much were the ballpark?  Getting starts in Oakland and Seattle helps mitigate the Texas starts, but I think we need to see something from him before trusting him fully.  I realize that will take you out of the running for him in most leagues as the FAAB bids will come long before he suits up, but that might not be such a bad thing if you can’t get him at a price commensurate with a 34-year old coming off of an injury-addled 2011.

In a 12 team mixed league where I could’ve scooped him on the open wire, I passed as I didn’t feel he was any better than my current staff that includes Dan Haren, James Shields, Matt Garza, Jordan Zimmermann, Jake Peavy, Max Scherzer, Derek Holland, Erik Bedard and some closers.  With names like Ervin Santana, Daniel Hudson, Tim Hudson and Brandon McCarthy on the wire, Oswalt doesn’t stand out as a “must have”.  If he doesn’t regain his velocity and thus his strikeout rate, can he really be expected to be anything other than Paul Maholm/Mike Leake circa 2011?  A solid performer likely to have some gems, but not a season saver for your fantasy team.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, FAAB, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 05.28.2012

Trolling the Wire Notes: Week 10

Early games made it difficult to get any Monday picks in with the holiday, but the rest are updated in the sidebar.  Some of the picks are thinning out, but the TTW All-Stars include Felipe Paulino, AJ Burnett, Erik Bedard and of course, Edwin Jackson.  Jackson’s becoming less available, but he is still on enough wires to fit into the threshold.  I still like Anthony Bass despite a hiccup last week.  Meanwhile, JA Happ looks like he might be emerging as a solid option to rely on going forward for those who stream starters.  I was surprised to see Trevor Cahill down at 15% at ESPN, but I guess his peripherals have been pretty weak thanks in large part to his elevated walk rate after walking 3 in each of his last three starts.

Last week saw 12 of the 23 recommendations pick up a win.  That has to be an all-time high for TTW.  The ERA was nice at 3.53, but the WHIP was high at 1.40 thanks in large part to the aforementioned Bass as well as Ross Detwiler and Juan Nicasio getting smoked.  Detwiler lost his rotation spot to Chien-Ming Wang.  Not sure how I missed RA Dickey‘s second start against San Diego on Sunday.  I feel like that wasn’t listed when I checked the list last week because I had him for his May 22nd start in Pittsburgh.  Maybe it was an oversight on my part or a schedule change later on.  He was amazing in both, but now he’s on too many rosters too qualify.  And finally, Mike Minor has a lot to prove before reappearing on a TTW slate.

Last Wk: 12 W in 23 starts, 3.53 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 133 IP

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 05.22.2012

Take Notice: Anthony Bass

Anthony Bass made his major league debut in June of 2011 as a second-tier organizational prospect (#22 for the Padres according to Baseball America before the season) making the jump from AA in order to make a spot start.  He went five solid innings allowing five hits and just one run though he walked four and struck out just one en route to a win.  Considering that the start came in Colorado and he allowed 12 flyballs to just seven groundballs, things could have gone much worse especially with the four free passes.

He was sent to AAA where he spent the rest of June before re-joining the big league club.  He spent July, August and most of September as a reliever who Bud Black wasn’t afraid to use for more than an inning.  In 12 of his 24 outings, he went at least an inning and a third.  He went two-plus innings in eight of them.  I don’t think it is out of bounds to say he was run-of-the-mill during the stretch other than the fact that he could go multiple innings, an eroding trait of relievers or perhaps it is an eroding desire of managers to use relievers for one-plus.

He had a 1.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 and 1.4 K/BB in his 33.3 innings with 4 holds.  The work earned him a pair of starts to close out the season.  The first: in Colorado.  He was even better this time around once again going five but allowing just two hits and one walk with a strikeout while holding the Rockies scoreless and earning his second win.  He ended his season with another five inning start, this time at home, during which he allowed a run on five hits with two walks and two strikeouts taking a no-decision for the effort.

The composite numbers yielded a solid 48.3 innings by ERA (1.68), but the other numbers told a different story as his 1.28 WHIP, 4.5 K/9 and 1.1 K/BB pointed toward a 4.62 xFIP.  He left 92% of his runners on base which is an excellent way to depress your ERA.  Less because of his performance and more because the Padres strengthened their system, Bass fell to #28 coming into 2012 according to Baseball America.  They worried his lack of consistent command would relegate him to the pen for the foreseeable future.

During Spring Training he threw 15 innings, but only got two starts.  Though it was a tiny sample, he walked just one batter while striking out nine.  I tend to put virtually zero stock into Spring Training numbers, but I don’t make decisions for the Padres and they obviously saw something they liked as he made the Opening Day roster and soon became the front-runner to take the injured Tim Stauffer’s rotation spot and be the fifth starter in the rotation.

He won the job outright and after a pair of two-inning outings to start the season, he made his first start on April 12th.  We have seen a new Bass so far.  He has six or more strikeouts in six of his eight starts and one of the other two was his debut during which he was limited to just 4.3 innings but still fanned five.  All told he has 51 strikeouts in 49 innings as a starter (he didn’t strike out or walk anyone in his four relief innings).

He has gone away from relying so much on his fastball shifting the mix over to his changeup and still seldom used sinker.  He has kept the majority of his 2011 fastball velocity and his mid-90s max isn’t much different, either, which is impressive considering the majority of his 2011 work came out of the bullpen where virtually everyone throws with more velocity knowing the workload will be shorter.

His command, the facet of his game that Baseball America thought might leave him a reliever permanently without massive development, have seen a sharp improvement leading to many more strikeouts.  He has seen a 6% rise in called strikes with his fastball and 8% with his changeup.  He is throwing the slider, his strikeout pitch, in the zone 4% more often and generating 3% more whiffs so while he has thrown 50 fewer sliders at this point than he did all of last year, he has just four fewer whiffs.

With two strikes last year, he was getting a lot of swings, but not many misses.  Fastballs were put into play 33% of the time, changeups were at 50% and the slider was at 17%.  All three are down significantly in 2012 with the fastball at 26%, the changeup at 32% and the slider at 15%.  Last year in two strike counts, he got a called third with the fastball just 8% of the time and the changeup just 5% of the time.

Control is putting the ball in the zone, command is putting the ball where you want it in the zone.  In 2012, his called strike percentage in two strike counts is up to 11% with the fastball and 18% with the changeup.  I didn’t include the slider because he doesn’t get called strikes with it (1 in ’11; 0 this year) and doesn’t really need to since it is his swing-and-miss pitch.  Look at the heat maps of his two strike pitches to get an even better idea of the difference between command and control.

Courtesy of ESPNTruMedia.com

Those pictures are all of his pitches skewing things a bit with this point about command since we’re focusing on the fastball and changeup.  Furthering the point another way, last year he populated the middle of the zone with his fastball and changeup in those two strike counts hitting it 42% of the time.  This year he is down to 28% in those middle three squares if you think of the strikezone as a nine square box.  Meanwhile he is pounding the bottom of the zone with those two pitches 36% of the time, up from just 17% last year.

We are seeing the emergence of Bass right before our eyes.  He has a three pitch mix (with a few sinkers sprinkled in) built on a solid low-to-mid 90s fastball and a swing-and-miss slider.  The changeup has a nice 9-11 MPH split from his fastball and continues to improve.  It is his least used pitch by a significant margin, but it is also more than a show me pitch already, too.  The 24-year old righty isn’t a PETCO product either, as his ERA at home is 3.09 compared to 2.57 on the road.  His skills improve away from PETCO Park as well suggesting he knows he can’t rely on a spacious field to cover his mistakes.

The 53-inning sample is a short one, I’ll grant that, but there are some real changes in Bass’s approach that suggest he is plenty real.  The fantasy community hasn’t exactly bought in en masse just yet, though.  He is on just 18% of rosters at ESPN, 29% at Yahoo! and 54% at CBS.  He has a real shot at becoming this year’s Cory Luebke which is an easy comp as they are teammates, though Luebke is lost for the season with an injury.

They both had similar pedigrees in the minors statistically, though Luebke found himself much higher on the prospect ranking at Baseball America checking in at #6 before last year’s breakout.  They both transitioned through the bullpen.  They are both displaying strikeout stuff that wasn’t present in the minors thanks in large part to wipeout sliders.  Luebke’s arsenal is a bit deeper, but I am making a general comparison, not a dead on 1:1.

Check your wire, there is a good chance that Bass is available.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 05.21.2012

Trolling the Wire Notes: Week 9

Lost some guys this past week as their availability rates shrunk taking them out of consideration for Trolling.  The causalities include:

Max Scherzer – knew that wouldn’t last long and 15 Ks will accelerate the process.

Ervin Santana – another one I knew wouldn’t last and a strong 2-start week sopped up his remaining availability.

Jeff Samardzija – he has really transformed himself this season as he has K’d just fewer than 6 twice in his 8 starts.

Chris Capuano – took his first loss in San Diego last week, but that hasn’t stopped him from being on 100% of ESPN league rosters.

Bud Norris – surprised and bummed about this one as he usually floats under the radar because of the Astros, but impossible to ignore his three win stretch during which he has a 0.47 ERA in 19 innings.

Check the sidebar for this week’s picks.

—

Last Wk: 8 W in 29 starts, 4.23 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 164 IP

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

« Older Entries  |   Newer Entries »