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Wednesday: 07.4.2012

Paul’s 24 to Target

(Ed. note – This will likely be it for the week on PaulSporer.com.  I was going to split it up, but decided to give you all 5,000+ words at once.  I may have something up for Friday, otherwise look for my stuff at BP and then back here next week.)

We have flipped the calendar to July, we’re officially beyond labeling a player’s stat line as a hot or cold “start”*, the All-Star break is right around the corner and trade season is kicking into high gear in both fantasy and real baseball.  With that, I wanted to take an opportunity to highlight my favorite starting pitcher trade targets.  Why 24?  Because it’s my favorite number, that’s really the only reason.

* let’s be honest, this probably should’ve stopped around Memorial Day, but I heard it a lot throughout June.

There is a range of talent within this list so it’s not just a bunch of aces leaving you saying, “No f’n duh!” though some will be entirely unsurprising (“what, Paul likes Hamels?? Weeeiiirrrdddd”), but they represent the group of guys I’d be buying via trade or definitely hanging onto if I already had them on my team.

They aren’t necessarily ranked in order, but look at it more as a talent spectrum with the better guys clustered near the top and the riskier, less-established arms in the 20s.  The exclusion of guys doesn’t mean I don’t like them (obviously acquire Justin Verlander if you can at a reasonable price, but he’s guaranteed to cost two arms and nine legs), these are just my 24 favorites to target.

1. Cole Hamels – I didn’t waste any time with him, did I?  I still don’t think he is universally treated like the ace that he is and that means you may not have to pay ace-level prices for him via trade.  This is especially true with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee pitching at peak, which they obviously aren’t with the former on the disabled list and the latter struggling at times and not getting any support when he’s excelling.

This doesn’t mean you are going to steal him from a leaguemate for Carlos Lee and Justin Masterson, but he rarely costs a price commensurate with his value like a Verlander or Stephen Strasburg.  He is a four-category star (10 wins even on the Phillies, while Lee has 0 showing you just how random the stat can be) with bankable strikeouts, ERA and WHIP and pacing toward a career-high in wins after reaching 15 just once in his career.

2. Madison Bumgarner – Despite posting great ratios (2.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) in his first four starts, his peripherals were a bit wobbly (4.6 K/9, 1.6 K/BB) which was a bit unnerving especially for those expecting an ace-level season out of him.  Since then he has a 2.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP backed by 8.5 K/9 and 5.4 K/BB rates in 86.3 innings of work.

That is despite giving up exactly four runs in five of the 12 outings.  He has been virtually unhittable in the other seven giving up an average of 1 run (four w/1 ER, one w/2 ER and a shutout).  He has three double-digit strikeout outings in that span as well.  In short, he has been the beast we were hoping to see in 2012.  The best part is that he is just 22 years old so he works for those trading for 2012 and those trading with an eye on 2013.

3. David Price – Price is rounding into form as the season wears on.  While his strikeout rate and WHIP improve month over month, his ERA is incrementally on the rise, though a 3.29 peak as we saw in June is hardly reason for concern.  I’m far more interested in the first two factors as he continues to miss more bats and allow fewer baserunners.

As the Rays move toward being whole again (namely getting Evan Longoria back) and stabilizing the defense, his and this next guy’s improved groundball rates will pay bigger dividends.  This franchise isn’t used to spotty D in recent years, but the shuffling in and out of reserves who were supposed to play sparingly throughout the year has compromised their usually razor-sharp defense.   Price could actually get better in the dog days and improve upon his 2.92 ERA, while this guy almost assuredly will…

4. James Shields – Another guy that anyone who has read my work for a while is completely unsurprised to see gracing a list like this.  I’m a huge Shields fan and while things haven’t gone exactly according to plan this year, I foresee improvements in the near future.  He, too, will benefit from a more solid defense as his groundball rate is at a career-high 54%, up from last year’s 46% which was a previous career-high.  Meanwhile he has improved his strikeout rate with only little harm to his walk rate (2.8 BB/9, up from 2.4).

He is the first guy on the list who you can probably acquire at a significant discount compared to his value since the 4.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are pretty ugly right now.  The danger is that this become a mini-2010 as his skills were great that year yet he ended up with a 5.18 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  I don’t see a 5.18 ERA coming, but he needs the defense to start turning his groundballs into more outs and he himself needs to sharpen up with runners on.  I believe he will.

5. Johnny Cueto – Being the unabashed strikeout love I am, you might be surprised to see Cueto on this list, but I just love what he is doing these days.  I’ve watched his last few outings to get a better feel for the 2012 iteration and I came away impressed.  What he lacks in strikeouts (6.6 K/9), he makes up for in groundballs (49%) which is my second favorite skill of a pitcher.  He has a four-seamer and sinker that both sit around 93 MPH and he peppers the zone with both.  Meanwhile he pounds his 83-84 MPH changeup low in the zone, but also down out of the zone (22% of them are out of the nine square strikezone).

He continues to lower his walk rate, too, dropping down to 2.1 BB/9 this year making his strikeout rate more palatable.  He is going deeper into games this year as well averaging 6.7 innings per outing, a number on the rise yearly since 2009.  His next hurdle is a 200-inning season, a figure he is tracking toward this year (on pace for 223 innings in 33 starts).  Obviously if strikeouts are your main need, Cueto isn’t for you, but he delivers everywhere else.

6. Josh Johnson – The start of a player’s season, whether good or bad, can have a lasting effect that often skews the perception of that player for the rest of the season.  Take Johnson for example.  I think a lot of folks in the fantasy community would say he’s having kind of a “meh” season (if not worse) if you asked them their thoughts on him without showing them a stat sheet.  If you brought his 3.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP into the mix, they would probably feel justified in their assessment.

However, a look into his game log shows that he struggled to work the kinks out after spending most of 2011 on the shelf, but turned a corner in early May and has been quite excellent since then.  The Padres tattooed him for six runs in 2.7 innings in Petco back on May 4th pushing his ERA up to 6.61.  To that point, he had gone more than six innings just twice and completed the seventh just once.  Since then he has a 2.47 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 66 innings across 10 starts going fewer than six innings just once and going seven or more in six of the 10.

His strikeout rate is at 7.8 K/9 in that stretch with a strong 3.0 K/BB.  The strikeouts aren’t up a ton from those first six starts (7.5 K/9), but his walks are done a ton (2.2 K/BB) as he has walked 19 in the 10 starts after 12 in those first six.  He isn’t 100% back to 2010-2011 Josh Johnson, but he isn’t far off and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran off a stretch of vintage JJ starts at some point later this season.

7. Yovani Gallardo – I know I have been beating this drum since early May, but if you lift Gallardo’s two starts against the Cardinals and look at his numbers, he has a 2.80 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  His walk rate also drops from 4.1 BB/9 to 3.7.  I realize you can’t cherry-pick starts, but if you just avoid his St. Louis starts (he’s always struggled against them), then Gallardo is still the stud we expected him to be this year.

Even with the Cardinals starts, his bottom line numbers are palatable (3.87 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), though hardly star level.  His walk rate has regressed severely after he showed tons of improvement down to a very strong 2.6 BB/9 last year.  He can be successful walking that many, but it obviously eats into his margin for error.  He can be a star if he just gets it back to 3.5 or better.  I am still all-in on Gallardo.

8. Mat Latos – I have stood by Latos all season long and it is finally paying big dividends with back-to-back complete games (1 ER in each).  Home runs look like the primary culprit for his 4.42 ERA as he has allowed 1.6 HR/9, however it isn’t really a consistent issue so much as it is a few bouts of gopheritis really hampering him.  He has allowed 2+ home runs three times this year and those are three of his four worst outings (the other was against those blasted Cardinals).

He allowed five solo shots to the Rockies (not in Coors believe it or not), three in Cleveland and a pair to the Astros at home.  In those outings, he gave up five, seven and five earned runs.  Also of note is that his problems are incorrectly being tied to his shift into the Great American Ballpark.  He has actually fared much better at home (3.47 ERA) than on the road (5.92) despite a better strikeout rate (9.7 compared to 7.4 at home) and nearly equal K/BB rate (3.2 compared to 3.3 at home).

His 3.61 road xFIP suggest brighter days ahead away from home.  Meanwhile, after an ugly 5.7 K/9 in April, he has a 9.4 K/9 in 69 innings since so he could be in for a huge second half as an across-the-board contributor.  On the heels of those complete games, his price has likely risen, but you may also have the effect of some wanting to parlay the outings into an opportunity to dump Latos at a peak.  I think there are more peaks in his future.

9. Adam Wainwright – Getting pummeled by the Pirates (7 ER on 11 H in 5 IP) might seem like the end of the world for someone of Wainwright’s caliber, but you might be surprised to learn that the Pirates scored the most runs in baseball during the month of June (146) and led the NL in home runs (39).  So it’s not as bad as it would seem at first blush.  Wainwright has been a rollercoaster ride during his return from Tommy John Surgery, which shouldn’t be too surprising.

Expected him to be vintage Wainwright right out of the gate would be stupid.  So while the peripheral skills have been pretty close to 2009-2010 Wainwright, he still has his off games.  For example, he had a stretch of four starts in June where he posted a 2.70 ERA with 27 Ks in 27 innings, but he sandwiched that run with a pair of 7 ER outings (including the most recent one against the Pirates).

He is still a work in progress in terms getting back to his elite level, but I think the flameout starts will be fewer and farther between as the season wears on.  I think the Cardinals have handled him masterfully with just two starts over 110 pitches and only seven over 100.  He didn’t even hit the century mark until his sixth start.  As much as they need him with Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia on the shelf, they know that pushing him beyond his limits will only result in him joining his fallen teammates on the disabled list.

10. Ian Kennedy – Kennedy was amazing last year, there is no denying that: 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 21-4 record in 222 innings.  He had an 8.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.  His BABIP, LOB and HR/FB rates all beat league averages which aided his 2.88 ERA compared to his 3.50 xFIP.  His skills have actually been a tick better this year (8.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9) yet his ERA has skyrocketed to 4.20 thanks in part to a leveling out of his BABIP, LOB and HR/FB rates.  His 3.96 xFIP says the ERA probably regressed a bit too far.

These are skills to invest in and now is the optimal time with his ERA up over 4.00.  You’re unlikely to find someone selling him at a bargain basement price, but there is no way you still have to pay for 2011 Kennedy and he could be that guy from here on out.  We even saw glimpses of it in June, but he was just inconsistent as you can see from earned runs allowed in the month: 0, 6, 2, 5, 1.

He seems to have worked through the home run issue that got him throughout May as he allowed 2 HR in three of his six outings.  And as a flyball pitcher in that home ballpark, home runs will be a big key to his success for better or worse.  I’m betting on better.

11. Matt Garza – Cherry-pick alert.  Garza was brilliant through his first seven starts (2.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) before suffering through his worst two outings of the years during which he allowed 13 runs (12 earned) in eight innings thanks in large part to five home runs.  Since then, he has been solid with a 3.72 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 36.3 innings.  The kicker?  Those two outings were against Houston and Pittsburgh, both on the road so you can’t blame the wind in Wrigley.  Minute Maid can be prone to longballs, but PNC Park is a pitcher’s haven.

I know boiling it down to two starts seems simplistic, but he allowed five of his 12 home runs in that outing and he has been a 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP pitcher outside of those outings.  He basically had a bad week.  A couple of rough outings can still skew the bottom line enough to distort how good someone has been as I mentioned with Gallardo and his St. Louis starts, and also Garza in these two starts.

12. Matt Moore – I know better than to jump on the hype train with unproven pitchers, but I still fell victim to it with Moore.  His incredible stretch at the end of last year was a limited sample, but he was so good and those flawless mechanics are hypnotizing.  As much as I bought in on him, I was at all surprised to see him stumble out of the gate because that’s just how it goes so often with inexperienced pitchers.  That said, he is immensely talented and even while struggling he was showing positive signs.  I firmly believed early on that he would get better as the season progressed.

So far that is how it has played out.  He sprinkled a few good starts in during his first nine, but still finished the run with an ERA slightly north of 5.00 at an ugly 5.07 in 49.7 innings.  He hadn’t completed seven innings to that point.  He did so for the first time in his 10th start (the incredible Memorial Day showdown between he and Chris Sale) and has done so three other times since then, too.  In those seven starts, he has a 3.18 ERA in 45.3 innings with 45 strikeouts and just 18 walks (compared to 27 in those first 49.7 innings).

Moore still has room for growth this year, specifically with the walk rate as a 3.6 BB/9 (his rate in the 45.3 IP sample) is hardly special.  You aren’t going to see Moore discounted even a little bit in keeper leagues (which doesn’t deter me from buying), but the ERA north of 4.00 after 95 innings has very likely lowered his price (which was sky-high on draft day) in re-draft leagues and I’d be ready to take advantage of that.

13. James McDonald – I am not averse to buying high on guys when I believe they are for real and as the driver of the James McDonald Bandwagon, I obviously believe in him, but his inclusion is as much about letting fantasy managers know they don’t have to sell high for fear of a second half implosion.  There were 16 pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA last year and there are 21 in the 2012 group.  There is no reason McDonald can’t be one of the 2012 group by season’s end.

For me, command and control were the missing ingredients for McDonald to reach his potential so it’s no surprise that chief among his improvements this year include a career-best 2.7 BB/9, down from 4.1 BB/9 a year ago.  Meanwhile, his breaking stuff has been downright unhittable, especially his curveball.  In the 73 plate appearances ending on a curveball, batters have a .096/.096/.192 line with 31 strikeouts.  They haven’t fared much better against his slider: .143/.194/.222 with 29 strikeouts.

This isn’t smoke and mirrors.  He has made some real improvements as a pitcher and should remain a quality asset for the remainder of the season.

14. Jonathon Niese – Niese is posting a career-high strikeout rate thus far at 8.6 K/9 aiding career-bests in ERA (3.55) and WHIP (1.27), too.  The intriguing part is that he is some home run bad luck (19% HR/FB rate) away from an even lower ERA as we see from his 3.36 xFIP.  Always a groundball pitcher, Niese has taken it to new heights the last two years at 52% and 51% the last two years (identical 1.8 GB/FB rates).

Niese is hovering around 50% availability at ESPN and Yahoo! and I just don’t get it.  This lefty seems to be improving year over and year, plus at 25-years old, he has keeper potential, too.  He is someone to invest in regardless of league type.  By the way, I typed the Niese portion on Tuesday afternoon and then he went out and threw eight innings of 1-run ball against the Phillies.  Not the stiffest competition, but that should cut into his availability at ESPN and Yahoo!, so act quickly.

15. Dan Haren – I know, you’re surprised that Haren wasn’t listed immediately after Hamels.  I haven’t completely lost faith in my boy Haren, but I am at least a bit concerned.  I know he was dealing with some back soreness early in May when he labored through a trio of starts that he would normally cut through with ease (6.61 ERA at Min, vs. Oak and at SD).  He bounced back with a 1.29 ERA in his next three including outings against the Yankees and Rangers.

Since then he has just been bad (7.94 ERA in four starts) and while you can give him a break for going into Coors, that one was actually his best outing in terms of earned runs (4).  He allowed five earned runs to the Dodgers which I believe accounted for 68% of their June runs.  Through it all, he is still fanning more than last year (7.7 K/9) and maintaining an elite K/BB ratio (3.7) and I just can’t quit him.

His value may never be lower so now is the time to buy in if you’re a believer like me.  I also typed Haren’s piece Tuesday afternoon and he went out and had yet another garbage outing further depressing his value.  You may have to hold your nose while proposing a trade to acquire him, but I don’t think we’re at Tim Lincecum levels with him.  The All-Star break will hopefully help him get right.

16. Jordan Zimmermann – I put some lofty expectations on Zimm heading into the 2012 season and he has essentially delivered.  No one is complaining about a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but a meager 4-6 record and modest 6.0 K/9 have kept him from a truly special season.  The former is hardly his fault as the Nats don’t have a great offense and have often scratched out wins late in the game.  The latter seems to be more of a choice by Zimmermann.

He seems to be one of those guys who will go for the strikeouts when he needs them and take them when hitters are vulnerable, otherwise he is plenty happy to induce weak contact and conserve pitches through shorter at-bats. He has outings with 9,7, 6, 6, 6, 6 & 5 Ks all in seven or fewer innings.  He also has a pair of 1 K outings during which he induced 16 and 14 groundballs, including his start in Colorado where keeping the ball down is paramount to succeeding (to wit he threw seven 1-run innings).

He is probably going to be a guy in the 6.0-6.5 K/9 range, which I can live with if he maintains a 50% or better groundball and sub-2.0 BB/9 rates to go with it.  He essentially becomes a Cueto-type at that point.  These kinds of guys have to be seen to get a better handle on their game because those who just look at the stats will be unsatisfied and automatically assume regression is coming since their ERAs have such big splits from their xFIPs.

17. Edwin Jackson – He was in the midst of a special first half before falling victim to Coors Field (8 ER in 3 IP).  In his other 14 starts, he allowed more than three runs just twice.  He continues to develop as a pitcher and get incrementally better.  For the first time since his season in Detroit, he has a WHIP that doesn’t hurt you, in fact it is very helpful at 1.13.  He has become a rather reliable asset since 2009 and at 28, there is still a bit of upside, too.  That is exactly the kind of guy to invest in, especially since he never carries an exorbitant price tag.

18. Phil Hughes – Home runs are really the only thing keeping Hughes from a great season.  He gave up at least one in each of his first 12 starts, snapped the streak for just a game and then gave up four to the Braves during a home run derby in Yankee Stadium with temps pushing up toward 100.  He doesn’t get a reprieve just because of the park and weather, though, if for no other reason than the fact that he will have to deal with both all season long.

He has finally had back-to-back homer-less games and unsurprisingly he has managed 16 innings of 2-run ball with 12 strikeouts and just two walks.  And both games were at home, so that is also encouraging.  He came out of his May 1st start with a 7.46 ERA, but has a 3.34 ERA since despite that stretch including outings with seven and six earned runs.  In other words, he has been great in his last 11 starts.

A heavy flyball pitcher with home run issues in that ballpark means there is probably a cap on how low his ERA can go (probably around 3.70 or so).  To reach that mark for the season he would be around 3.00-3.10 the rest of the way, but even if he is just a 3.70 guy for the remainder of 2012, he still has plenty of value with his strikeouts (8.5 K/9) and heightened win potential as a Yankee (9 W already this year).

19. Gavin Floyd – Despite the best strikeout rate of his career (8.3 K/9) and a walk rate right in line with what we have come to expect from Floyd (2.7 BB/9), he has posted his worst ERA since 2007 (4.91).  He just hasn’t been consistent this year.  Every time he appears to get going, he flames out for a start or three.  So why am I buying?  Well, apart from the quality skills profile (which also includes a consistent groundball lean; 1.1 GB/FB this year), Floyd has also shown himself to be a better pitcher later in the season.

For his career, he has a 4.87 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 2.0 K/BB in 620 first half innings and a 4.06 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 K/BB in 435 second half innings.  Half-season trends aren’t the most stable splits so I don’t trust them blindly, but Floyd’s skills are such that I would be buying anyway and his penchant for turning it up in the second half only adds to the desire to acquire him.

20. Doug Fister – One of the worries for the 2012 season was that the infield defense of the Tigers would heavily impact both Fister and Rick Porcello negatively as groundball pitchers.  Unfortunately, that has played out as both have bloated .339 BABIPs with Fister allowing 10.7 H/9 and Porcello at 11.2 H/9.  Still, I look at Fister’s peripherals and see someone who has to be better than his 4.61 ERA.  He has a 7.6 K/9 and 3.8 K/BB in 54.7 innings, but the hits just pile up and lead to meltdown innings.

Anecdotally, the defense has extended approximately 53 of the 55 innings he has pitched in with poor defense giving the opposition a fourth, fifth or twelfth out.  Rumors are swirling that the Tigers will look to address second base during the trade deadline and hopefully they look for a defense-first option.  Jhonny Peralta has been fine at shortstop, not great and not awful (-0.1 UZR), but the corners have been as bad as feared with both Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder posting -3.6 and -3.9 UZRs.

UZRs aren’t terribly trustworthy in full year samples let alone three month samples, but as someone who has watched every Tigers game, those numbers feel pretty accurate.  All that said, the defense was garbage during his first eight starts and he had a 2.72 ERA.

His start in Texas was the worst of his career and that can’t be laid at the feet of the defense and he followed that up with an outing that just went off the rails after three excellent innings.  He was singled to death in fourth inning some of which was poor defense.  Anyway, I’m rambling at this point.  On the heels of two of the worst starts in his career, now is the time to buy.  He will be fine with these skills.

21. Jarrod Parker – A hard-throwing super prospect with great stuff and a favorable home park is easy to get behind.  Walks are an issue (4.4 BB/9), but he showed some improvement there from May to June (he only had six innings in April).  I think they will remain his biggest issue this year, but that park can cover a lot of mistakes so the key to his success will be keeping his head afloat on the road which he has done with aplomb thus far including seven shutout innings in Coors Field.

He has given up more than two runs just twice this year (though both were 6 ER outings) leading to a 1.54 ERA in seven home starts.  Both of the ugly outings are on the road, but he has still maintained a 3.74 on the road.  At the very least, he is a worthy home-only spot starter for those of you in leagues where such roster management is possible (10/12 mixers, ideally with daily transactions).  I also see him adding strikeouts as the season wears on, too.

22. Michael Fiers – Where the heck did this guy come from?  At 27, Fiers feels like a journeyman, but he was drafted at 24 so it’s not like he has labored through the minors year after year.  He raced through the minors with impressive numbers at each level, though his age kept him from being much of a prospect and likely had some discounting the performance.

He doesn’t have overly impressive stuff, either, which is another reason he wasn’t exactly a blue chip prospect for the Brewers.  You can’t argue with the major league results, though.  It has been a tiny 39-inning sample, but he is striking out 9.4 per game and walking just 1.8 leading to a 2.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.  He has been a good bit below average with his HR/FB rate (4%), especially as a flyball pitcher so we can probably expect some regression there.

But the skills are rock solid and he should be usable across all formats even if he is more a 3.60ish ERA pitcher the rest of the way.  He has shown to have strong command and control throughout his pro career and a deception in his delivery that keeps hitters guessing.  Those elements do a lot to cover up a lack of raw stuff.

23. Brandon McCarthy – It’s not about skill with McCarthy, it’s all about health.  And right now, his health simply cannot be relied upon.  That makes him a worthy trade target though because it lowers the price.  By the way, if for some reason it doesn’t lower the price in your league, then just move on.  Love the pitcher, love the potential, hate the shoulder.  I didn’t deep dive into the numbers here because there is no real need, they’re great and they will likely continue to be great when he is pitching.  It’s just a matter of keeping him on the field consistently.

24. Joe Blanton – Maybe I’m just being sucked in by an NL-best 5.9 K/BB (OK, not maybe, I am), but I think Blanton’s best work is still ahead of him.  He doesn’t walk anyone (1.3 BB/9, also an NL-best) and he misses plenty of bats with a 7.7 K/9.  His 9.6% swinging strike rate is on a four year rise, too.  On the downside, perhaps he is finding his pitches in the zone too often as his 19 home runs and 115 hits are also “lead” the NL.  Of course, you don’t want to be leading those categories.

The control is there, he can miss bats and he limits walks, but in order to push these skills into better results, he needs to show some better command and put the ball where he wants it more often within the zone as opposed to where the hitters want it.  He is a speculative play worthy of NL-only leagues or deeper mixed leagues.  If you’re in dire need of WHIP with few options available to you, you could do worse than Blanton (1.25) especially since he brings some potential ERA upside along with him.

—

This will likely be it for the week on PaulSporer.com.  I was going to split it up, but decided to give you all 5,000+ words at once.  I may have something up for Friday, otherwise look for my stuff at BP and then back here next week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trading | 2 Comments »

Wednesday: 06.27.2012

Yadier Molina’s Superstar Season

In “Year of the Pitcher: Part 3”, the headlines are being grabbed by R.A. Dickey, Matt Cain, Chris Sale, Yu Darvish, Brandon Beachy before his injury, Stephen Strasburg (and actually the Nats rotation as a whole) and whoever is six-plus innings into a no-hitter or perfect game on a given night.  And rightfully so given how incredible those guys have been.  Apart from the wunderkinds (Bryce Harper & Mike Trout), Josh Hamilton and Matt Kemp before his injury, hitters aren’t really getting as much run as individual story makers.

This attention on pitchers isn’t a problem, but it has left some hitters in the midst of great seasons off the radar including the brilliant season that Yadier Molina has had thus far.  The 29-year old backstop signed a five-year, $75 million dollar extension in early March that includes a mutual option for a sixth year that would keep him in St. Louis through 2018.

Instead of signing Albert Pujols, they essentially doled the money out to Molina, Carlos Beltran (2/$26mm) Rafael Furcal (2/$14mm) and Lance Berkman (1/$12mm) with Molina as the obvious centerpiece to be paired with Matt Holliday through the 2000-teens.  They are hoping that Molina can be their Jorge Posada in terms of longevity.

The challenge in that comparison is that Molina was up at 21-years old and full-time by 22 while Posada first saw significant time at 25-years old and that lack of wear and tear applied in his early 20s allowed him to remain an offensive force through his 30s with only two seasons below 101 OPS+ and zero below 90 (he was at 90 last year w/a .714 OPS).

However the story worthy of attention right now is that present-day Molina has become the best all-around catcher in baseball.  He has long been the league’s gold standard when it comes to the defensive discipline of catching, but he took a major step forward offensively last year and has not only continued it in 2012, but amped it yet another several notches.

When I saw Yahoo!’s Scott Pianowski tweet on the matter, I found myself nodding in agreement as I had just recently looked at Molina’s stat line over the weekend and marveled at the fact that he is ridiculously close to career-highs almost across the board in only 276 plate appearances.

He achieved career-bests in home runs (14), RBIs (65), runs (55), batting average (.305) and slugging percentage (.465) last year in 518 plate appearances.  He is already exceeding both rate stats (.319 and .512) to go with his 12 home runs, 44 RBIs and 33 runs scored in just 53% of last year’s plate appearance total.  His .369 on-base percentage is also tracking to be a career-best.  After an embarrassing 4-for-9 (44%) stolen base rate last year, he is just two away from his career-high with seven so far in eight attempts (88%).

It is a generally accepted fact that catcher’s develop later offensively speaking because the early part of their career is spent learning the finer points of handling a pitching staff and taming a running game, but that development is usually confined to a power spike.  Molina’s entire game is reaching new heights.

He is currently on pace for 26 HR, 95 RBI and 15 SB with his .317 batting average.  Only one catcher has ever reached or exceeded all four of those marks: Ivan Rodriguez in 1999 when he had 35 HR, 113 RBI and 25 SB with a .332 batting average en route to an MVP.  Of course the offensive environment was much different back then so while Pudge’s dream season netted a 125 OPS+, Molina’s carrying a 142 so far.

None of this offensive explosion is coming at the expensive of the defensive work that made him famous in the first place and earned him four Gold Glove Awards.  GGs aren’t a perfect measure of defensive prowess so you can’t just use them blindly, but I think it is universally agreed upon that Molina has deserved every single one he has earned.

In fact, a major & valid complaint of the awards is that they are often offensively driven for some ungodly reason, but Molina bucked that trend with his 2010 win as he was rather putrid at the dish netting a meager 84 OPS+, but even voters couldn’t ignore his MLB-best 49% caught stealing rate as he threw out a career-high 33 runners (against 35 steals).

So far this year he is popping runners at a 37% clip (13-of-35), but that doesn’t even tell the full story.  He is so good that he stops the running game before it even starts.  The opposition is running at a clip of nearly once per two games, easily baseball’s best rate.  There is currently an attempt once every 16 innings against Molina.  Compare that with San Diego’s Nick Hundley who doesn’t see six innings pass without someone attempt larceny on his watch.  Molina’s rate was even better a year ago when base runners ran just once every 17.7 innings.

The closest catcher to Molina this year is John Buck who is two innings behind (1 every 14 innings) and right behind him is Yadier’s brother, Jose Molina (13.8).  Yadier remains the most feared catcher in the game defensively speaking and with good reason.  The other bias usually associated with Gold Gloves is that multiple winners seem to get favored and ties usually go their way.  Arizona’s Miguel Montero is having a helluva year cutting down runners (22-of-42, 52%), but that might not be enough to trump Molina’s reputation.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t also mention that Carlos Ruiz is another catcher also having a truly brilliant year at the dish (and behind it).  His .361 average is the best in baseball and his 10 home runs are already a career-best while his 41 RBIs in 67 games have already topped the 40 he amassed in 132 games last year.  He has been no slouch behind the dish, either, with a career-best 39% caught stealing rate stopping 22 of the 56 would-be thieves.  Runners are testing him exactly once per game, but he is meeting the challenge.  At 33 years old, his 171 OPS+ is fourth in baseball behind just Joey Votto (198), David Wright (180) and Mark Trumbo (174).

When I was first gathering data and thinking about this piece, I was thinking of suggesting that Molina could be a longshot MVP candidate based on his excellent all-around season and he may be, but if he is then Ruiz definitely has to garner some consideration and likely even more than Molina as he is out-hitting him and playing sharp defense that is at least in the county of Molina’s, if not in the same ballpark.  I still give Molina the edge as baseball’s best all-around catcher both now and going forward.

What is clear is that these two plus the out-of-nowhere breakout from A.J. Ellis, the insane offensive surge from A.J. Pierzynski, the emergence of Jonathan LuCroy before his hand injury and the continued dominance of guys like Buster Posey, Miguel Montero, Joe Mauer (not 2009 levels, but still very good) and Matt Wieters, perhaps we are in the midst of “The Year of the Catcher” as well as the third edition of TYotP.  Given the return to earth by Mike Napoli and the struggles of Carlos Santana, Brian McCann and Alex Avila, who’d have thought we would be talking about superlative catchers this year?

For the Cardinals, it is still very early (in fact, the extension for Molina hasn’t even kicked in), but it certainly looks like he is trending in the right direction (improved OPS+ in five of the last six years) offensively without losing anything in the defensive game that went a long toward earning him the contract in the first place.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Breakdown, Catcher, Hitters, Player Focus, Statistical Analysis | 2 Comments »

Tuesday: 06.19.2012

Trout and Harper in 2013: The Industry Weighs In

Though we are in the midst of our third straight “year of the pitcher” (maybe it should be an “era of the pitcher”?), two hitters are capturing the attention of the baseball world.  Rookie hitters at that.  Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, the consensus top prospects in baseball this preseason, have lived up to their hype thus far leaving the baseball community drooling in anticipation of what will come next.  The fantasy baseball community might be drooling most of all, especially those with the wunderkinds on their teams.  Those playing in keeper leaguers are giddiest of the bunch.

Trout is on pace to produce one of the five best age 20 seasons since the expansion era (1961), in fact the 2nd-best if he maintains his current pace of production.  Only A-Rod’s insane age 20 season tops Trout’s current pace from an OPS and OPS+  standpoint.  Harper is on pace to be just the 2nd 19-year old to qualify for the batting title and post an OPS+ over 100.  Not 2nd-best, 2nd at all in the expansion era (and subsequently the best at his current pace).

(data courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com)

We got a 40-game taste of Trout at age 19 a season and it was less than impressive.  He hit .220 with a  .672 OPS including five home runs and four stolen bases.  In exactly 60 more at-bats than he had last year, he has a .328 average, .907 OPS, six home runs and 19 (!) stolen bases.

Harper, meanwhile, spent his first pro season between A and AA last year.  He crushed the former, posting a .977 OPS with 14 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 258 at-bats before getting a promotion.  He faltered upon arrival posting a .628 OPS in his first 80 at-bats, but closed the year with an .878 OPS in his final 49.

It looked like he was going to need a similar adjustment to AAA as he had a .708 OPS in 72 at-bats before getting the call to the majors as the decimated Nationals needed his potentially impactful bat.  Using arbitrary endpoints again, he seemed to need an adjustment period again posting a meager .650 OPS in his first 13 games.  However, since May 13th he has hit .325 with 15 extra-base hits include seven home runs leading to a .988 OPS in 123 at-bats.

The two are on pace for some pretty impressive seasons even if you don’t factor in their ages:

Harper’s RBI total is pacing a bit low, but it won’t take much to boost that up.  In fact, if you just added five to his current mark, he would move from 59 to 75 in a snap.  By the way, a quick note about the pacing.  I built in five off days for both of them just to be a bit conservative.  I also included an 85% pace which builds in some regression should they fall off their current production pace yet maintain the same amount of at-bats.  It’s kind of a wet blanket/reality check as they are likely at or very near the peak production of their seasons right now.

With the hysteria surrounding the two, I wondered about the future.  Specifically next spring.  I have my own ideas about their 2013 value, but I wanted to know where some of the top fantasy minds in the industry saw them going so I reached out to them with that very question.  Here are the results:

Derek Carty (Twitter) – I imagine both Harper and Trout will be drafted higher than they should — fantasy players love drafting on hype, so much so that they’ll draft a guy who has to make good on his ceiling just in order to break even on the pick (see: Brett Lawrie, 2012) — although both should be quite good.  Harper will offer more in terms of power while Trout will offer more in terms of speed.

A true 80 runner, Trout could swipe 40 bags next year (although some scouts feel he’ll slow quickly as he ages, given his body type).  Harper could challenge 30 HR. and both could provide solid averages, although Trout’s power/speed combo will likely be superior to Harper’s, giving him the edge (especially leading off for the Angels).  I’ll take Trout in the seventh and Harper in the 10th (subject to change, of course, based upon rest-of-2012 performance).

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Eno Sarris (Twitter) – We asked this of analysts in the online scouting community going into the year for FanGraphs+ ($) and they were all split.  Like right down the middle split.  Dave Cameron writes a piece about how impressive Bryce Harper has been in the early going, and then Wendy Thurm writes that we shouldn’t forget about how good Mike Trout has been.

It seems clear that both will be great, and quickly, and so we’re left with the quintessential question: do you prefer to have power first, or speed?  I’ll take the speedy guy, even if it’s a year older, and here’s why: 1) This speedy guy with power is more likely to add value in all five offensive roto categories. 2) This speedy guy comes with a great contact rate.

There’s nothing worse than a contact problem, and though Harper has a nice strikeout rate, his swinging strike rate (12.5%) is way above average and the sample is almost robust enough to worry about it (Ed. note: this was turned in before Harper’s 5 K performance, which Sarris subsequently wrote about).

Along with Trout’s speed, his better contact rate (9.6% better) should mean that his batting average will be better than Harper’s most years.  It’s as simple as that, but there’s a little more.  If stolen bases by themselves are rare, the true five-cat performer is even rarer, and if you can get your speed from guys with power, you avoid ever having to Juan Pierre it up. I know Harper has the ability to steal some bags now, but I see it more like athleticism and taking advantage of situations — a la Brandon Belt — than Trout-like wheels.

Both of these guys have upside — in one corner, you have a guy who could hit .280 with 25+ homers and 10+ steals as soon as next year, and in the other you have a guy that could hit .300 with 15+ homers and 40+ steals next year. The thing is, there’s an outside shot that Trout’s current batted ball mix (1.22 gb/fb, 12.2% HR/FB) and ISO (.192) are sustainable, in which case he might hit closer to 20 home runs and push the needle further in his favor.

I chose Trout over Harper when they came up and I’ll do it again. Oh, and round? I’ll take him as early as the third or fourth, depending on how the hype works out going into the season next year.  If Harper gets more of the attention, I might gamble on taking Trout in the fifth or sixth in order to really pump him for value.

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Joel Henard (Twitter) – Looking at Trout and Harper next season, it’s going to be a tough call.  I definitely see them going way too early in drafts with owners drafting them in the 2nd round.  I see both guys as later 3rd and early 4th round guys.  I am a Harper fanatic and will probably draft him way too early, with that being said I would rank them in 3rd and 4th round.

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Riley Breckenridge (Personal Twitter; PO Twitter) – Mike Trout: late 2nd round, early 3rd – Updated ZiPS projections have Trout pegged for a 90/15/60/33/.290 output in 2012. I think we’ll see an uptick in all five categories in 2013, (~95/18/70/38/.295), which brought to mind the 2011 model of Andrew McCutchen with more speed, a better batting average, and slightly fewer home runs. McCutchen’s ADP this year sat in the mid-20s, so I’d project Trout as a late 2nd rounder in most leagues.

Bryce Harper: late 3rd round, early 4th – Harper is a tougher call than Trout.  His real value will come when he can give a fantasy owner 30+ bombs and ~20 steals. While I’m fairly certain that day will come, I’m not sure it’ll be in 2013.

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Jason Collette (Twitter) – Along where Desmond Jennings and Brett Lawrie were this year both round and dollar wise to be honest.

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Nando Di Fino (Twitter) – I actually ran numbers with Harper, Griffey, Yount, Mantle, and A-Rod — their 19-year old season vs. their 20-year old seasons.  All but Yount put up insane numbers. Trout is essentially a year ahead of them right now, so it’s a sneak preview, to a degree. I look at them like this:

Harper: $32 roto player, with lots of power, great average, and some speed.

Trout: $34 roto player, with some power, great average, and a little more speed, which will get his value a tick above Harper’s.

In points leagues, I bet Harper is a little more valuable in 2013 when it’s all said and done, and I would wager that Harper would go in the first round in most drafts, while Trout falls to 2/3. In reality, they should probably both be late first-rounders in both formats next season, and will likely finish with late first-round value.

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Al Melchior (Twitter) – Trout probably won’t maintain a .300-plus batting average going into next season, but he should have some Shane Victorino-type value with his speed/power combo. With the added hype of having been a top prospect boosting his value, I see him going as a 4th or 5th rounder.

Harper will hit for more power than Trout, and that will offset his relative shortcomings in batting average and steals. Think of him as Hunter Pence, but with more stolen bases and walks. Also likely to be drafted in the 4th or 5th rounds on average.

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Cory Schwartz (Twitter) – Assuming both of these phenoms continue to produce at their current pace and rates, they’ll both be highly coveted in re-draft leagues next year.  Personally I’d go after Trout first, because his edge in the stolen base category will likely outweigh the value of Harper’s superior power.  He’s not likely to hit in the .320’s next year as he is right now, but I think his other production is realistic and projects to high teens in homers and 35-40 steals with an average in the .280’s and nearly 100 runs.

In a 12-team re-draft league, that type of player would probably go in the third round and possibly even sooner… think about Andrew McCutchen this year in terms of value; he’ll certainly go ahead of where Desmond Jennings did this year.  Harper projects for a slightly higher average and could challenge 30 homers next year, while stealing 12-15 bases.

He’ll probably go a half-dozen or so picks after Trout, comparable to or before someone like Hunter Pence. Either way, both have clearly established themselves as potential impact players next year and, based on their production so far this year and expected growth going forward, neither will last very long on draft day.

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Derek VanRiper (Twitter) – Valuing Trout and Harper for 2013 requires an unscientific calculation of their expected adjustment period as big league pitchers find ways to get them out. As we’ve learned through the first two-plus months of Brett Lawrie‘s 2012 season, elite tools don’t immediately lead to elite results over the first 500-600 plate appearances.

Trout should run enough to steal at least 25 bases while providing double-digit power, while Harper seems to be a better bet for 15-20 homers and double-digit steals, albeit with a lower batting average because of his ongoing development against left-handed pitching.  In Trout, I think we’re looking at a player who will be valued as a third or fourth-round pick in many drafts next season (similar to Desmond Jennings in 2012), while with Harper it seems as though a Round 4-5 ADP seems more likely.

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Chris Liss (Twitter) – Off the top of my head – mixed league, Trout will be a 2nd round pick, Harper 3rd. That is if we drafted for 2013 today. But obviously that could change a lot.

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Scott Pianowski (Twitter) – I can’t see Trout lasting longer than two rounds, perhaps getting into the Top 12 or 15. He’s capable of being a dominant speed player right away and he has good (not elite) power, so we might have a five-category player here. It will be interesting to see how the league changes its pitching approach to him, and how the kid reacts.

Harper I don’t like as much as everyone else seems to for the immediate future. Down the road, of course, we can all see the superstar potential. I doubt I’d get him where I’m likely to slot him, maybe fourth or fifth-round value. And before anyone drafts either of these guys in 2013, remember all the sophomores that have broken our hearts.

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Ray Flowers (Twitter) – If I was drafting today for the 2013 season I’d roster Trout for the reason many others are saying Trout would be their choice – it’s the speed component. I don’t doubt that Harper could make a run at 20 steals, but if Trout is swiping 40 bags as is obviously possible, Harper is going to have to hit a who lot more dingers to make up that difference in the fantasy game. Plus, I’m not sure that Harper is going to be a .300 hitter right off the hop, which will make his need for a major home run driven effort exceedingly important if he is going to outpace Trout next season.

Speaking of sophomore slumps, notice the 4th-place hitter on that age 20 list from above.  Jason Heyward.  Just two years ago he took the league by storm with a five-tool game worthy of the #1 prospect ranking he earned that preseason.  Since then things haven’t necessarily gone as planned.  He labored through injuries dropping 50 points on his batting average and 141 points on his OPS a season ago.  He has been better on the whole so far this year, but his walk rate has dipped again while his strikeout rate is at a career-high 23%.

He serves as the most ready-made example of what Pianowski is talking about as does Brett Lawrie, a name elicited often by our panelists.  I know what you’re thinking, “Harper and Trout aren’t Heyward and Lawrie!”  And that may be true, but they were both elite, blue-chip prospects who took the league by storm in their debuts and have since struggled by comparison.

Trout didn’t take the league by storm initially (87 OPS+ in that 40-game sample last year) which is maybe why he feels different meanwhile Harper seems to be a generational, once-in-a-lifetime-type talent to whom rules of history don’t apply, unless we’re talking about the rules of Ken Griffey Jr.’s early career.  While Trout matches up somewhat with A-Rod (who struggled in 17 and 48-game samples as an 18 and 19-year old before storming the league at 20).

Nevertheless, if they maintain these incredible paces, no one is going to care about cautionary tales from history and the pair will be very highly drafted in 2013 (like top 10 if they keep their current paces up).  For me, I have Trout higher than Harper.  His speed changes the fantasy game and when paired with his run production ability and batting average potential makes him my favorite type of player.  I would value him as a 2nd rounder in 12-team mixed leagues and I can legitimately see him creeping into the 1st round.

Harper, meanwhile, is of course no slouch.  He oozes with ability and his power could be transcendent in a hurry.  In the lowered offensive era, that is huge.  The Hunter Pence comparison given by a few of the analysts makes sense, but I would give him more pop (30+ HRs) while taking away some of the batting average (closer to .265-.270, compared Pence’s .280-.290 range with a couple of .300s mixed in), at least initially.  Harper has .300/35 capability, I’m just not sure it shows up in year two.  I would value him as a 3rd rounder.

Loosely averaging everyone’s thoughts and opinions yields Trout as a late second/early third round pick and Harper as a mid-to-late third round pick.  They will continue to garner a ton of attention the rest of this season and their draft position will be written about a ton during the upcoming winter and early next spring at the various internet outlets and in every magazine that hits newsstands.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Hitters, Outfield, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Saturday: 06.16.2012

Welcome to Splitsville: Lefties

Welcome to Splitsville.  Here is Splitsville I analyze players through a particular lens, or split, and highlight those who excel.  I looked first at those excelling in each split so far this year, but then I compared it with their career performance to see if it is something that can be relied upon with any degree of certainty going forward or might just be statistical noise through two and a half months.

With the proliferation of daily games like FanGraphs The Game, Daily Joust, FanDuel, PickSix and many others, knowing which players excel in a particular split can help you decide who to pick for a single game.  It is incredibly hard to pick who will excel in a one day sample and even leaning on a favorable split won’t guarantee results, but it can enhance your odds.

Our first split to examine is “vs. lefties”.  Some guys just rake against southpaws.  They usually aren’t southpaws themselves as the lefty-lefty matchup is one of the tougher ones for hitters which aided the rise of the LOOGYs.  Here are 16 guys who are more or less LOOGY-proof:

Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen is on another level across the board this year with an .809 OPS against righties which is up a tick from his career .792 OPS mark against them.  Meanwhile, he is obliterating lefties this year as his 1.285 OPS against them is baseball’s best among those with 50+ PA facing left-handers.

David Wright

Wright has been unique this year in that he has actually been better against right handers (1.063 OPS) than lefties (.986 OPS), but he is still excelling against them so he makes the list plus he has been significantly better against them for his career.  As a superstar, he has excelled regardless of which hand the pitch is coming from (.855 career v. RHP), but his 1.021 OPS is akin to him being Jose Bautista (1.025 OPS in 1338 PA) circa 2010-2011 against southpaws.

Shane Victorino

Victorino has a .641 OPS against righties this year and a .742 for his career.  The Flyin’ Hawaiian is a slap-hitting useful, but unspectacular outfielder against righties, but becomes Mike Napoli with more speed against lefties.  Napoli has an .888 OPS in 1153 PA since 2010.

Billy Butler

Butler has always handled lefties, but this year’s power surge against them has put him on pace to push the 30-home run barrier for the first time in his career.  He was popping a home run every 24 at-bats coming into this season, but has upped that mark to every 14 at-bats with 4 in 57 AB so far.  Butler still hits pretty well against righties with a .288 average, but his slugging dips 100 points to .434 meanwhile he actually has more walks (99) than strikeouts (93) vs. LHP.

Derek Jeter

Unsurprisingly, this surefire first ballot Hall of Famer is doing well across the board.  He has always held an edge against lefties, but this year he has been on another level and it is propping up his entire stat line.  This year he has just a .696 OPS against righties.  He is still hitting .280 against them, but no power (.360 SLG).  He has the same amount of home runs against lefties (3) in 130 fewer plate appearances.

Kevin Youkilis

Youk has been an abomination on the whole this year, but he is still popping lefties to the tune of a solid .853 OPS (compared to his putrid .586 mark against right-handers).  He has held an advantage against lefties, but it was usually accompanied with an excellent mark against righties, too (career .852 OPS).  His career mark against lefties is essentially equal to 2010-2011 Troy Tulowitzki (.931 OPS in 1135 PA).

Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt doesn’t exactly have a rich career history having played all of 101 games in his career, but he does seem to feast on lefties in his limited sample.  His minor league record showed a similar domination of lefties suggesting we will continue to see this trend from him in the majors (1.390 OPS v. LHP; .934 vs. RHP in 131 and 326 PA, respectively).

Jose Altuve

Like Goldschmidt, Altuve has virtually a nothing sample of games compared to most of the guys on this list with just 119 played.  He is but a relatively hollow batting average against same-handed pitchers, but bashes the hell out of lefties with a near-.400 average this year.  This was present in his minor league career as he posted a .446 AVG and 1.165 OPS in 92 PA.

A.J. Ellis

Ellis is your prototypical late-blooming catcher as his 51 games this year are already a career-high.  He has always been an on-base machine with capable batting average and no real power before this year’s surge.  Though his career samples aren’t huge, he shows a pretty distinct edge when facing southpaws, especially for power.

Danny Espinosa

Espinosa has been so bad against right-handers both this year (.589 OPS) and during his career really (.676 OPS) that you could make a case that he should be a platoon player.  The switch-hitter’s split has been as stark as ever this year to the point where fantasy managers should definitely be platooning him where applicable.

Scott Hairston

Speaking of platoons, Hairston is deployed that way by the Mets with great success.  He has just 49 plate appearances against righties posting a paltry .600 OPS.  I am surprised it took this long for him to become a platoon player with a career .225/.287/.408 line against righties in 1328 plate appearances.

Trevor Plouffe

Plouffe currently doesn’t care which hand you throw with, he is going to hit a home run regardless.  But for his career, he has a distinct advantage against lefties in the form of a 230-point split in OPS.  In a lot of leagues, specifically any mixed league format, he was a waiver wire pick (and might still be out there in a few leagues) so the roster should be constructed in such a way that he can be platooned once this hot streak tamps down.

Gaby Sanchez

Sanchez’s performance this year has been one steeped in relativity.  A .698 OPS inspires exactly nobody, but compared to his .449 mark against righties, it is clear he fares better against lefties.  And his career record, filled with much more appealing data, bears that out as well with  a 177-point edge.

Jonny Gomes

Gomes notoriously feasts on lefties and the split seemed to be getting more distinct by the year before this year’s surge against righties (.752 OPS).  His career mark is probably still more instructive.  Same goes for teammate who would be a perfect platoon partner, though he too is enjoying an unexpected surge against same-handed opposition.

Mark Reynolds

Reynolds hits for average against no one and hits for power against anyone, but he is exceptional at getting on base and hitting for power against lefties specifically.  He didn’t hit his first 2012 HR until May 4th so he only have 1 against lefties and 5 overall, but four doubles in his 12 hits vs. LHP gives him that gaudy SLG so far this year.

Cody Ross

Ross was hitting everyone before he went on the disabled list, and he has always hit like an All-Star against lefties, but this year he was at a superstar clip against them buoyed by his .625 SLG in the short sample.  The Green Monster probably aided his work against righties so you might not have to worry about sitting in those situations once he returns.  Either way, he has been out for nearly a month so he probably appears on more than a few waiver wires.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Breakdown, Hitters, Player Focus, Splitsville, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Wednesday: 06.13.2012

Gio Gonzalez’s Breakout Season

It is hard to be overshadowed during a season when you have an 8-2 record, 2.35 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 and 3.0 K/BB in 73 innings.  And that doesn’t even mention the MLB best hit (5.3 H/9) and home run (0.1 HR/9… just 1 HR allowed) rates.  Alas such is life when you are teammates with Stephen Strasburg (he of the 7-1 record, 2.41 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and MLB-best 11.7 K/9 heading into his Wednesday afternoon start) as is the case for Washington’s Gio Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is in the midst of a Cy Young-worthy season with only his teammate standing in his way at this point.  I’m sorry, but Zack Greinke having a better fWAR than both of them shows a flaw in fWAR as far I am concerned.  Results have to count for something.  Greinke has been fantastic again in 2012 despite being saddled with a .350 BABIP that has no doubt contributed to his 1.22 WHIP, but part of that is on him.  Getting obliterated by the Cubs (8 ER in 3.7 IP) and the D’Backs (7 ER in 2.3 IP) no doubt elevated that BABIP so you can’t just blame the defense, claim bad luck and move on expecting things to regress to a more palatable level.

Strasburg’s biggest implosions are a pair of 4 ER outings, both of which still saw him last longer than either of Greinke’s.  Gonzalez, meanwhile, was popped by the Cubs in his opener (4 ER in 3.7 IP) and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER since including four scoreless outings of six or more innings.  Apologies for the tangent, I was just perturbed to see fWAR list Greinke at 3.0, Gio at 2.7 and Strasburg at 2.6.  How Strasburg is last among those three is beyond me.  Both Nats fan more than Greinke, he walks fewer than either and he is in the middle for home runs.  His ERA and WHIP are significantly* higher.

*significantly relative to the levels we’re discussing with these three this year, all of whom have been excellent

This is about Gonzalez, though.  An incredible left-handed talent, Gonzalez has been coming into his own the last few years as he works through his mid-20s.  Command and control have always been a problem for him as evidenced by the 4.4 BB/9 over his career.  He has shown incremental improvement yearly since first reaching the majors in 2008, though:

OK, improvement is a bit of a stretch for 2010 to 2011 as he simply walked one less batter in virtually the same amount of innings.  In fact, his 92 walks in 2010 didn’t even lead his league thanks to C.J. Wilson’s 93, but 2011’s 91 led all of baseball as he was the only one to reach 90.

So what has changed in Gonzalez that has elevated from a quality mid-rotation arm with potential to ace-level material (with only some of the potential showing) through the first two and a half months of the 2012 season?  Obviously shifting into the National League has aided some of the improvement as it is generally an easier league for pitchers to traverse due in part to the fact that they get to face their counterparts a couple of times a game and even when they aren’t, they are facing pinch hitting bench types instead of a DH.

So far in 2012, starting pitchers in the National League are 0.41 ERA, 0.05 WHIP, 0.4 K/9 and 0.2 BB/9 better than their American League counterparts.  Factoring those changes into Gonzalez’s current totals is a bit crude, but just for the sake ease it would push him to 2.76 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.   Among the reasons it is crude include the fact that the AL numbers are influenced by Oakland being the worst hitting team in that league and he wouldn’t face them.  Of course, he would also get to pitch in Oakland’s stadium which is very friendly to pitchers (Gio had a 2.63 ERA there the last two years).

FASTBALL VELOCITY/PERFORMANCE

Regardless of league, it is clear that Gonzalez is pitching as one of the best in baseball and his stuff would play anywhere.  He has enjoyed a slight velocity gain that has given his four-seam fastball and sinker more punch.  The four-seamer has improved from an average of 93.5 MPH to 94.1 MPH and he is throwing it more often going from 37% a year ago to 43% so far this year.  The result has been more swings-and-misses and fewer balls in play (naturally).

The sinker has gone from 92.8 MPH to 93.3 MPH.  He has been more selective with it throwing it 3% less than last year, but it is generating more swings-and-misses, too.  There are a few more balls in play with it percentage-wise, but a sharp rise in the groundball percentage with it suggests that batters aren’t exactly squaring it up.

More strikes, fewer balls and poorer contact from two pitches that make up 68% of his arsenal is the foundation to the stark improvement in Gio’s numbers.  The improvements in his four-seamer and sinker have spurred his surge in strikeouts, too, especially the four-seamer.

CURVEBALL PERFORMANCE

Gonzalez has a true hammer curveball.  It is his best pitch, his strikeout pitch, and one of the better ones across baseball.  He has taken it to another level this year.  First off, he has been more selective with it throwing it 20% of the time, down from 28% a season ago.  It is easily the lowest usage rate of his career, his first time below 25% in fact, and batters are having an even tougher time doing anything with it in 2012.  He is throwing it for a ball nearly 3% more at 45%, but he is generating more called strikes and whiffs with it, too.

He is commanding the pitch lower in the zone which has probably led to the rise in balls thrown with it, but has also left batters powerless against it yielding a filthy .225 OPS (yes, OPS) against the pitch.  There was nothing wrong with last year’s .524 OPS against the pitch, .225 is just… insane.  What comes after elite?  That’s what his curveball has been this year.  He has had 64 plate appearances end on curveballs and just five have been hits.  Nearly half, 30 to be exact, has been strikeouts while three have resulted in a walk.

CHANGEUP PERFORMANCE

A big improvement for Gonzalez has been the advancement of his changeup.  He used it just 8% of the time last year and while it still isn’t much more than an occasional pitch (11%), the results have dramatically improved.  He achieved all of one strikeout with the changeup a year ago in his 44 plate appearances that ended on the pitch.  This year has already seen 36 plate appearances end on changeups and 11 were strikeouts.  Batters are swinging 10% more often and missing 6% more often despite Gio putting it in the zone 5% less often.

He only threw it 2% of the time in 2-strike counts a year ago, whereas this year that number has risen to 9%.  He is trusting the pitch more and it isn’t letting him down.  Hitters can’t sit on the curveball expecting him to go to it in those counts like he did 44% of the time a season ago.  He is using the curve 32% of the time in those counts and the excess has been shifted to the four-seamer and changeup.

GOING FORWARD

Gonzalez is in the midst of a special season and the obvious question is whether or not he can maintain this level of success.  There is nothing he has done thus far that is ridiculously unsustainable especially for a pitcher as talented as Gonzalez.  The issue remains his elevated walk rate.  But it doesn’t preclude him from success.  When I first looked at Gio’s stat line for this year, it reminded me of Ubaldo Jimenez’s 2010 season.

Even while he was running up that insane 15-1 first half record, he was still walking 3.3 per game.  He ended the season with a 3.7 BB/9.  In fact, he and the 2009 iteration of Clayton Kershaw are the only two pitchers in the last three years to post a sub-3.00 ERA with a  3.7 BB/9 or higher, which is what Gonzalez has done thus far.  Gonzalez has a much better strikeout rate than either of those two had, but the common thread is that all three were eminently unhittable.  Kershaw led baseball with a 6.3 H/9 rate while Jimenez was at 6.7 H/9 in 2010.

Like I said, nothing in Gonzalez’s line is crazy and unsustainable, not even his .244 BABIP.  His infield defense is sound and continue to turn the weak groundball contact he generates into plenty of outs.  He has been at .274 and .287 the last two years, too, so it’s not like the .244 is a major outlier for him.  He will probably allow a few more home runs and not necessarily maintain a 1 per 73 inning rate (0.1 HR/9), but even regressing that out toward his career mark (0.8) won’t sink his ERA.  His xFIP is a very strong 2.91.

Then just imagine if his command and control show more improvement as the season goes along and he chisels away at the walk rate.  There is nothing in his line indicating that will happen, but it isn’t implausible as we watch the maturation of Gonzalez before our eyes.

I would still say he is the second best pitcher on his team, but the difference has been slight thus far.  They are a great righty-lefty combo atop a rotation while Jordan Zimmermann and Edwin Jackson have been great in their own right, too.  If you haven’t watched a Gonzalez start this season, I implore you to do so.  Not only will you have the added benefit of watching Bryce Harper play, but Gio has some of the most entertaining stuff in the game.

Plus, the Nationals announcing duo of Bob Carpenter and F.P. Santangelo is really good.  That statement was meant with some derision when I made it on Twitter, but I really think so.  Carpenter is a strong play-by-play by with a good voice and Santangelo offers tons of great insight.  The one downside I heard a few times was that they’re too “homery”, but I always compare that on a scale with Hawk Harrelson as the absolute worst & completely unlistenable, and they don’t even come close to that.  I think they call a straight up game reacting properly to great stuff the opposing team does even though it goes against their Nats.

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Wednesday: 06.6.2012

Brandon Beachy’s Strikeout Decline

Brandon Beachy seemingly emerged out of thin air last year to make 25 great starts for the Atlanta Braves.  His rookie campaign was injury shortened as he missed most of May and June limiting him to 142 innings, but his numbers were quite impressive.

While his 3.68 ERA was fourth (of five) among rookie hurlers with 100+ innings in the National League, his 10.7 K/9 led all MLB pitchers who threw 140+ innings.  His 1.21 WHIP was quite good, too.  In fact, everything about his stat profile said his ERA should’ve been better, evidenced further by his 3.16 xFIP.  His 1.0 HR/9 hurt with seven of 16 longshots including additional runners on base.

After all of that, many looked forward to the encore presentation of Beachy.  So far it has been nothing short of amazing.  He leads baseball with a 1.87 ERA and trails just a few guys for lead in WHIP with his 0.95 in 72 innings.  He has cut the flyball and line drive rates channeling it into a 9% increase in groundball rate (42%) resulting in a near-halving of his home run rate to 0.6 HR/9.

He has some good fortune and sparkling defensive support yielding a miniscule and league-best .207 BABIP.  Despite all that he is just 5-4 which is exhibit 5,938,291,764 of why win-loss record is virtually useless as a standalone judge for how a pitcher has fared.  So tired are his defenders from flashing the leather that they’ve given him just 6.4 runs per game, 50th-best among qualified starters in baseball.

While there is so much good going on in Beachy’s season, it is hard not to notice the 3.6 strikeouts he has shaved off of his rate down to 7.1 K/9.  He has actually cut his strikeout rate by more Henderson Alvarez (2.6), Derek Lowe (2.7) and Kevin Correia (3.1) have this season.  By maintaining his walk rate and matching last year’s 2.9 BB/9, he still has a solid if unspectacular 2.5 K/BB (61st among qualified starters).  But why the stark drop in punch outs?

He reached the majors in 2010 after spending most his season in the AA bullpen followed by seven strong starts AAA where he posted a 9.5 K/9 and 8.0 K/BB in 46 innings.  In three late-season starts for the big league club he was solid, especially for a 23-year old rookie.  He had a 3.00 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 2.1 K/BB in his 15 innings.

His 2011 breakout was spurred by the development of a slider, a pitch he didn’t even throw in his three late-season starts in 2010.  He had a strikeout per inning during those three 2010 starts though none of his three pitches (fastball, changeup, curveball) was his specific strikeout pitch.  The slider became his most-used secondary pitch at 19% easily outpacing the changeup (11%) and curveball (10%).  It turned the strikeout rate we saw in his 2010 season, both in the majors and minors, into something real.

Not only did batters put together a measly .182/.223/.339 line in plate appearances that ended on sliders, but they struck 40% of the time on it.  He generated 52 of his 169 strikeouts (31%) on the pitch burying it low and away to righties, down and in on lefties.  Righties flailed at it while lefties swung over the top of it.

The fastball (28%), changeup (22%) and curveball (17%) contributed plenty to the bottom line which isn’t surprising as you aren’t going to carry a 10.7 K/9 with one pitch for strikeouts (unless you’re a reliever).  The slider was his secondary pitch of choice when it counted, though.  He threw his fastball 52% of the time in 2-strike counts and his slider 29% of the time while the change and curve were at 9% and 10%, respectively.

His pitch usage in 2-strike counts this year isn’t really any different with the slider being used a little less at 25%, the fastball up to 55% and the change (8%) and curveball (12%) almost exactly the same.  So he hasn’t changed his approach for garnering strikeouts, but the pitch selection just hasn’t been as effective (obviously).

Batters are laying off the fastball and slider much more with precipitous declines in the swing-through rates on both with two strikes.  Both are being put into play more often, though obviously with good results based on his great results and tiny BABIP.  Only 6% of the fastballs in play last year were groundballs, this year it is up to 11% while the slider has risen from 10% to 12%.  Again, that is in 2-strike counts.  Perhaps the more patient approach from hitters is causing Beachy to find the zone more often with the slider.

So far it hasn’t hurt him at all, but in general allowing more balls in play is obviously more dangerous than fanning a guy.  The 5% increase in ball rate on 2-strike counts from the slider cannot be ignored, either.  Those could just be waste pitches as he tries to get batters to chase as they did often last year, but it looks like batters are laying off of the bad ones and waiting for something more hittable.

Hittable absolutely being a relative phrase because as while they aren’t striking out on the pitch, they certainly aren’t doing anything worthwhile with the slider.  Opponents have a .172/.180/.207 (yes, .387 OPS!) against the pitch overall.  Beachy has clearly traded those strikeouts in for tons of weak contact which can be an effective path toward success, too.  Yes it is unlikely that he can sustain a .207 BABIP over the season, but he doesn’t need to end the year with a 1.87 ERA/0.95 WHIP to be successful.

How has the lower strikeout rate impacted his ability to go deeper into games?  One issue with Beachy in his rookie season was his sub-6.0 innings per start rate.  He only found the seventh inning three times in his 25 starts and the eighth inning just once.  He was awesome at six inning outings, though.  He had 13 of them and gave up more than three runs just three times.

He has raised his average innings per start from five and two-thirds to just about six and two-thirds.  Over the course of a 32-start season, that’s a 29-inning increase and he is currently pacing toward a 211 inning season.  With 34% of his season banked at such an incredible ERA, he has a lot of wiggle room.  While it is reasonable to expect some regression, it would be surprising if the bottom randomly fell out for Beachy.

There were 16 pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA last year including the likes of Ryan Vogelsong and Jeremy Hellickson, both of whom didn’t have the skills that Beachy previously displayed and is currently displaying.  But even if we are conservative and just give Beachy a 3.00 on the dot, he still has 138.7 innings of 3.57 ERA.  You don’t have to sell high to avoid apocalypse.  You can, especially if the returns significantly help your team, but Beachy has been great this year and he is still fooling hitters even with the diminished strikeout rate.

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Monday: 06.4.2012

Did You Realize…? NL Edition

It’s June 4th, did you realize…

AL Edition

…that R.A. Dickey not only has a killer 2.69 ERA on the heels of a shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals, but he also has 70 Ks in his 74 innings putting him on pace for 210 this year?

Charlie Hough was the last knuckleballer to punch out 200+ batters when he fanned 223 in 1987 for the Texas Rangers.  He did so in 285 innings (7.0 K/9), though, while Dickey is pacing 220 innings (8.5 K/9).

…that Gio Gonzalez, and not Stephen Strasburg, has been the Nationals best pitcher thus far?

It’s a matter of degree with just 0.04 points of ERA, 0.02 points of WHIP and a whopping 0.46 K/9 separating the pair.  And if you look below the surface numbers, Gonzalez has had more luck on his side with miniscule BABIP and HR/FB rates while Strasburg is nearly at league average in both yielding a significant edge for Strasburg in xFIP: 2.51 to Gio’s 2.82.  Fact is: both are awesome.

…that Tim Lincecum’s 5.1 BB/9 is the worst in the National League?

His struggles have been well-documented, but I was surprised to see that he has the worst walk rate in his league.  His inability to work with runners on (62% LOB%) has killed him this year.  Some of it might be bad luck, but watching him shows obvious struggles from the stretch that need to be fixed if he expects to come anywhere near that 3.88 xFIP that has many believing in a rebound.

…that Trevor Cahill is generating a career-high 64% groundball rate?

His strikeout and walk rates have gone the wrong way, especially with the transition to the National League, but he is still posting a strong 3.45 ERA and pairing it with a career-best 3.76 xFIP.  Even his 2.97 ERA of 2010 only yielded a 3.99 xFIP.  This 24-year old just keeps getting better as a pitcher and I think there is still another level for him to reach skills-wise, too.  Once he can command his sinker in the bottom of the zone a bit more and cut that walk rate, batters are in big trouble.

…that Matt Cain is posting the best skills of his career with an 8.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 4.9 K/BB?

Yes, his ERA continues to out-perform his xFIP, but his xFIP also continues to come down.  He has dropped it yearly dipping below 4.00 for the first time last year (3.78) and sitting at 3.57 so far this year.

…that Brandon Beachy is toting baseball’s best ERA at 1.87 despite cutting over three and a half strikeouts off of his 2011 rate?

He fanned 10.7 per game last year, but this year is down to 7.2 in his 72 innings.  In turn, he has shaved 5% off of his flyball rate, added 8% to his groundball rate and cut a whopping 10% off of his BABIP from .307 down to .207 (no, 100 points isn’t 10% of .307, but his hit rate on balls in play dropped from 31% to 21%, that’s the 10% I’m talking about).  There is some regression coming to that ERA, but the dip in strikeout rate doesn’t mean the success is a complete fluke, either.

…that despite his frightening 6.98 ERA, Mike Minor is actually posting skills good enough for a 4.33 xFIP?

His insane 17% HR/FB rate has led to a 2.0 HR/FB rate, but his 7.9 K/9 and 2.4 K/BB are quite good.  Part of the gopheritis is bad luck, but part of it is his own doing as he fails to locate properly in the zone.  He doesn’t have overpowering stuff so command and control are necessary for sustained success or else he is subject to getting batted around as evidenced by his 27% line drive rate a season ago.

…that the three NL leaders in K/BB rate are all Phillies yet Roy Halladay isn’t among them?

He’s right there at 10 with a 4.0 K/BB, but teammates Cliff Lee (5.4), Cole Hamels (5.0) and Joe Blanton (4.9) are leading the way.  Blanton isn’t the only surprise as Bronson Arroyo is right there with a 4.9 himself.

…that three NL relievers have fanned at least 40% of the batters they have faced, but that Jason Grilli (40%) is one them??

The other two, unsurprisingly, are Craig Kimbrel (41%) and Aroldis Chapman (49%!!!!!!!).  Grilli has actually raised his strikeout percentage yearly since 2005 starting at 8% before entering the 20s in 2008.  Though 35, Grilli seems to be throwing his best baseball.

…that Tony Campana is on pace for 54 stolen bases?

This is despite also being on pace for just 309 at-bats.  At this rate, if he could just get 400 at-bats, he would steal 70 bases.  It can be annoying to have a one-trick pony in your lineup, but Campana can win you stolen bases.  He should be rostered in any league, especially since he’s actually been a two-trick pony with a .291 average, too.

…that Dexter Fowler is on pace for 18 doubles, triples and stolen bases?

As well as 24 home runs, 99 runs scored and 84 driven in.  He is also hitting .297 with a .400 on-base percentage.  In other words, he has been amazing this year.  It is absolutely ridiculous that he is 70% owned in Yahoo! leagues and 91% in ESPN.  I can’t envision a format (save AL-only obviously) where he isn’t a viable option.

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Friday: 06.1.2012

Did You Realize…? AL Edition

It’s June 1st, did you realize…

…that Felix Hernandez is toting a 3.42 ERA, good for 40th among qualified starters in the majors?

He posted a 4.45 ERA in May, but still had 33 strikeouts in his 32 innings with a 3.3 K/BB so I wouldn’t rush to the panic meter.  He had a BABIP of .378 for the month including three outings in which he allowed 10 or more hits.  Oddly enough one of his two good starts in May came against the Texas Rangers as he went eight strong allowing a run with seven strikeouts and a pair of walks.

…that Chris Sale leads the American League in ERA at 2.34 in 58 innings?

The month of May saw him get removed from the rotation (on May 4th) and thrust into the closer’s role where it was reported he would stay for “at least the rest of 2012”.  About a week later, he was having an MRI on his elbow and there was even some concern that he could be shutdown altogether.  He stayed in the closer’s role for all of 10 minutes blowing one save in his only relief appearance on May 8th before returning the rotation on May 12th.  He closed the month out with 25 innings of 1.82 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 31 strikeouts including a 15-strikeout outing on Memorial Day.

…that Sale’s White Sox are 30-22 with a +40 run differential despite Gavin Floyd (5.02), Philip Humber (5.37) and John Danks (5.70) all toting >5.00 ERAs?

It helps that Sale leads the AL and Jake Peavy isn’t far behind with a 3.05 ERA of his own.  Of those three, I am still buying Floyd.  He has a 3.2 K/BB built on a career-high 8.0 K/9 in 61 innings.  Home runs have killed him, especially in his last three outings as the Angels, Twins and Indians trounced him for 21 runs in 15 innings with five bombs.  The velocity is fine and the control only fell off in the Minnesota game (3 BB) so I don’t think there is an issue that plague him in the long term.  It appears to be a rough patch with better times ahead.

…that Felix Doubront has a 9.5 K/9 and has arguably been Boston’s best start thus far?

If you’ll afford me a small back pat, I would point out that I touted Doubront in this year’s pitching guide advising that if the Red Sox gave him the shot he deserved then he should be targeting.  He is even out-doing my expectations pairing the strikeouts with a 3.86 ERA and five wins in 56 innings.  His 1.36 WHIP is a bit high, but at his cost you can easily accept that flaw.  Furthermore, he is running hot of late with a 2.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last four with 27 Ks in 24 IP.

…that MLB’s strikeout leader, Max Scherzer (11.7 K/9), labored to a 4.04 ERA in May despite a 12.8 K/9 and 6.4 K/BB?

It was actually a marked improvement from his 7.77 ERA in April.  The big issue in May was a severe case of gopheritis as he allowed at least one home run in every start (yielding a 2.0 HR/9).  While some these struggles definitely fall on Scherzer’s shoulders, a good bit is bad luck, too, as his skills have been far more elite than his 5.55 ERA would suggest.  He has a 3.19 xFIP as his .387 BABIP and 17% HR/FB rate have to regress some in his favor.  He fanned 9 or more in four of his six May outings, I’d buy in if you can as his best outings are still ahead.

…that Henderson Alvarez and Derek Lowe both have K/9 rates lower than their ERAs?

Their ERAs are both on the right side of 4.00 which is what makes that such a weird phenomenon.  In the last 10 years, only three pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title have managed to post a K/9 lower than (or equal to) their ERA while maintaining a sub-4.00 ERA:

  • 2006 Chien-Ming Wang: 3.63 ERA, 3.1 K/9 in 218 IP
  • 2005 Carlos Silva: 3.44 ERA, 3.4 K/9 in 188 IP
  • 2009 John Lannan: 3.88 ERA, 3.88 K/9 in 206

…that Phil Hughes has allowed at least one home run in every start of the year?

His 14% HR/FB rate is high, but not as egregious as I thought it might be when I saw his 2.1 HR/FB.  His generally heavy flyball rate (career 46%) is at its heaviest of 49% so while I am intrigued by his 8.4 K/9 and 3.8 K/BB, that intrigue is tempered by home run issues that are unlikely to evaporate barring a change in his approach.  While it is easy to envision his 5.64 ERA coming down some, the xFIP of 4.34 says it isn’t exactly set to plummet in the vein of Scherzer.

…that Ervin Santana actually did make a change to curb his gopheritis with a 64% groundball rate in May?

After allowing 10 home runs (2.9 HR/9) in April en route to a 6.16 ERA, he figured that keeping the ball down going forward would be helpful.  His 41% groundball rate in April skyrocketed to an AL-best 64% and yielding a far more palatable 1.2 HR/9 in May.  That is right in line with his career mark of 1.1 HR/9 coming into this season.  He was actually in the midst of a great May with a 2.17 ERA through his first four starts before stumbling a bit against Seattle and New York and settling for a still solid 3.69 ERA in 39 innings.  I’m still buying where available.

…that Mike Trout is on pace for 96 Rs, 22 HR, 83 RBIs and 35 SBs?

In the last three years only two players have hit those thresholds: both Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury last year.  Even if you chop 20% off of those paces to 77-17-66-28, there are only 12 such seasons in the last three years across 10 players as Kemp and Ian Kinsler each did it twice.  Early on it looks like Trout is exactly the stud he was predicted to be when he was checking in as a top 3 prospect on lists all across the industry this preseason.

Here’s the kicker: take the 80% figures and tack on a .309 batting average threshold and we get just four instances in the last three years (it drops to three instances at the 100% paces).  Let’s say he hits the 80% paces and hits “only” .290, where does he go in 2013 drafts?  Is he a first rounder already?  What if he hits 95% or better of the current pace?

…that no one is on pace top 40 stolen bases in the American League?

Both Alejandro De Aza and Jason Kipnis are pacing the league with 12 apiece pacing them for 37 and 38, respectively, based on their team’s games played.  Paces can still be out of whack even two months into the season and with a category like steals, things can change rapidly.  Rajai Davis has 10 in his 38 games played, but has recently fallen into more playing time.  If he maintain anywhere near his current .819 OPS, he should stick in the lineup and I don’t think he would have any trouble reaching and topping 40 stolen bases.  If he gets a full set of at-bats in 90 of the remaining 110 games, he paces to steal about 50 steals based on his 10 in 68 at-bats thus far.  He is on a roster in just 3% of ESPN leagues.  That number should be much, much higher.

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Wednesday: 05.30.2012

Matt Moore’s Big Memorial Day

Lost in the shuffle of celebrating Chris Sale’s incredible 15 strikeout performance from Memorial Day is the fact that heralded prospect Matt Moore had far and away his best start of the season in the same game.  Moore, a top three prospect anywhere you looked this preseason, has been consistently overshadowed by the opposing pitcher in his starts this season and while Monday was no different in that respect, it finally wasn’t because of Moore’s shortcomings.

Moore parlayed a pair of late season starts, one in the Bronx and one in Arlington during the playoffs, along with an exquisite minor league track record into a lofty preseason ranking on prospect lists everywhere.  In many instances he out-ranked either Mike Trout or Bryce Harper including topping both at Baseball Prospectus as Kevin Goldstein slotted him atop the list.  He never landed lower than third in the lists I saw.

The polished lefty had 497 minor league innings under his belt posting a 2.64 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 and 3.3 K/BB.  That said, just 53 of the innings came in AAA and his MLB experience amounted to all of 19 innings.

I am not pointing any fingers when it comes to preseason praise as I went against my own code and heaped plenty of praise on the rookie myself.  Despite pointing out the pitfalls of teammates of David Price and Jeremy Hellickson during their rookie seasons, both uber-prospects like Moore, I still slotted him 10th in the American League projecting some Strasburgian success right out of the gate.

The control issues that plagued him early in his minor league career have been present in many of his starts this year resulting in a 4.4 BB/9 and preventing him from even seeing an eighth inning as high pitch counts have limited him to an average of 5.7 innings per start.   He was in control on Monday and while he still didn’t see the eighth inning, he finish the seventh for the first time all year.

He was pulled after 104 pitches which just so happens to be exactly how many pitches he has averaged per start topping out at 109 and falling below 100 just once (97 in his May 22nd start).  He threw a season-high 73 strikes, 18 of which were swinging, also a high watermark for the season.  Strikeouts haven’t been an issue this year as his 9.2 K/9 is 10th-best in baseball, but Monday’s 10 were due in large part to Moore being in control of the hitters as opposed to neither Moore nor batter knowing exactly where the ball is going from pitch-to-pitch.

Great stuff can generate strikeouts at an elite clip whether it is paired with command and control or not, just ask Nolan Ryan among many others.  That’s why it is important to make the distinction between Moore’s previous nine starts and the Memorial Day gem.  While everything was working for him, it was the secondary stuff that really stood out, specifically his 70-grade curveball.

Baseball America rated the pitch as such on the 20-80 scale in their 2012 prospect guide, but he hasn’t thrown the 70-grade version too often this year.  On Monday, it might’ve been 80-grade.  He threw 15 benders, eight of which were swung (flailed?) at and four of which resulted in punch outs.  That doubled his season total for strikeouts on the curveball.  Meanwhile he got four more strikeouts out of his 21 changeups boosting his season total to 13 on the pitch.

Here are the four curveball strikeouts as well as an additional strong curveball that he threw in the seventh inning at-bat to Alexei Ramirez that resulted in one of the foursome:

How does he build on this game and enjoy more success as he continues through his rookie season?  He still needs to be more pitch efficient.  In the first inning alone he threw 15 pitches in two strike counts.  He had Alejandro De Aza and Paul Konerko 0-2 and Gordon Beckham 1-2.  He threw seven more pitches and eventually hit De Aza.  He eventually fanned Konerko and Beckham, but Konerko drew him full from 0-2 while Beckham fouled a pair of extra pitches off before going down.

It appears as though he is going to get about 105 pitches per outing so if he wants to go deep into games, he is going to have to average about 13-15 pitches per inning (that would give him seven-eight innings).  He is currently averaging 18.3 per inning.  His 4.14 pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) is the third highest amongst qualified starters just behind Felix Doubront (4.20) and Neftali Feliz (4.19).  Coincidentally enough, Sale is just behind Moore at 4.13 in his 57.7 innings.

Strikeout pitchers are naturally going to have a high P/PA than other pitchers, but consider that Moore’s 62% first strike percentage is highest by an average of 7% among those in the top 10 of P/PA meaning he isn’t taking advantage of his ability to get out ahead of hitters.  By getting ahead of hitters at that clip, he should still be able to generate strikeouts without expiring so much of allotted pitch count.

He will get it and there will be more and more glimpses of greatness on par with or better than Monday’s outing.  I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him get better as the season wore on.  In fact, I expect it.  While his in-game pitch count appears to be capped around the 105-mark, his innings for 2012 shouldn’t have any sort of cap that would leave him short of a full season’s allotment.

He threw 174 innings between the minors and majors (postseason included) last year so even if the Rays conservatively allotted an extra 25 this year, he could throw 199.  At his current pace of 32 starts with 5.7 innings per outing, he would throw about 182 innings.  That would still leave him plenty for a playoff run should the Rays win the division or secure one of the two wildcards.

In keeper leagues, he is no doubt coveted as one of the best in the game as he is still contributing this year and has an excellent long term outlook, but you might be able to get a discount in redraft leagues.  I would definitely explore the option and do so immediately as Monday might have cut into that discount already.  It may take still another month before we see some consistency out of him from start-to-start, but the second half of the season should yield more positive results than what we have seen thus far.

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Tuesday: 05.29.2012

Roy Oswalt in 2012

It is being reported that the Texas Rangers have won the Roy Oswalt Sweepstakes, a not-too-shocking result on the heels of the Neftali Feliz injury, the ineffectiveness of Scott Feldman in his stead and the reticence of the Rangers to put Alexi Ogando back into the rotation in light of how excellent he has been as a bullpen asset.

The Rangers were always a frontrunner for Oswalt and while the Feliz injury may have expedited the process to get him signed, the Roy Halladay injury and subsequent DL’ing may have been the final push to get something done officially.  I don’t necessarily believe the Phillies would’ve made a big push for Oswalt, though.  Their staff can withstand a two month absence of Halladay as it is their abysmal hitting that leaves them tied for last in the division, four games behind the Washington Nationals.

What should the Rangers expect in an abbreviated season from the 34-year old righty making his foray into the American League?

They are getting a pitcher coming off of his worst season in a lot of respects: ERA, WHIP, fastball velocity, strikeout rate and innings pitched.  His xFIP of 3.95 was just 0.02 better than his career-worst mark set in 2007.  From 2002-2008, Oswalt was one of the most reliable starters in the game averaging 32 starts and 211 innings per season with 2003 standing as the only season that saw him throw fewer than 209 innings or make fewer than 32 starts (127 IP in 21 starts losing time to a recurring groin injury).

The 2009 season was the first time that back issues cropped up costing him some time and snapping his streak of five straight 200+ inning seasons (181 in 30 starts).  He bounced back with a vengeance in 2010 splitting time between Houston and Philly and posting his best ERA (2.76) and strikeout rate (8.2 K/9) since his rookie season (2.73 ERA & 9.1 K/9 in 142 IP).

Then last year he was limited to just 139 innings as the lower back issues returned and put him on the disabled list two separate times.  It clearly hampered his production as pointed earlier with the diminished velocity and suppressed production compared to his career marks.  He was still above average, but definitely vintage Oswalt.

A 34-year old Oswalt returning from back issues and trying his hand in the American League for the first time isn’t likely to be vintage Oswalt, either.  Having pitched in Houston for so many years, he was guaranteed interleague time against the Rangers so he has a sizeable in that ballpark.  The obvious caveat is that he had to face the Texas lineup which has seemingly always been good even when they were a third or fourth place team in their division.

A snapshot of his stats in Texas, against the AL as a whole, for his career and in the last three years shows the disparity in production in that ballpark.

Oswalt has always been a groundball pitcher with career 1.5 GB/FB and 47% groundball rates, however there has been a shift in recent years as his flyball rate has crept up a bit.  He still has a discernible groundball lean, but more flyballs than ever, too.  After ranging above 32% with his flyball rate just once from 2002-2008, Oswalt has been at 36% each of the last three years.  Meanwhile his groundball rate, which used to sit high-40s/low-50s, has been between 43-46% the last three years.

It is hard to even foster a guess what kind of peripherals we will see from Oswalt given the wide range of his recent track record and the great unknown of his back issues. Last year’s 6.0 K/9, if a new level for aged Oswalt, will likely erode some transitioning to the AL leaving him only marginally better than Feldman.  His 2.1 BB/9 from last year is significantly better than anything Feldman has ever posted, though, and the limiting of free passes has long been a calling card of Oswalt’s.

It will come down the command of his stuff.  With last year’s walk rate as good as ever, but the strikeout and hits allowed rates at their nadir, Oswalt was clearly displaying plenty of control but not much command as he pounded the zone with too many hittable pitches.  This isn’t Andy Pettitte/Roger Clemens hired gun stuff, rather it is a pitcher who likely knew he couldn’t make it through an entire season so he sat out the first two months in order to save some bullets.

Keep that in mind as your rush to place your FAAB bid or pick up Oswalt off of your waiver wire.  His name alone will draw attention and likely has him scooped off of any fastest-finger waiver wires, but I would be cautious in my expectations, especially in weekly transaction leagues.

Is he really more than a spot starter at best in 10 and 12 team mixed leagues?  How much of his struggles in Texas were the lineup and how much were the ballpark?  Getting starts in Oakland and Seattle helps mitigate the Texas starts, but I think we need to see something from him before trusting him fully.  I realize that will take you out of the running for him in most leagues as the FAAB bids will come long before he suits up, but that might not be such a bad thing if you can’t get him at a price commensurate with a 34-year old coming off of an injury-addled 2011.

In a 12 team mixed league where I could’ve scooped him on the open wire, I passed as I didn’t feel he was any better than my current staff that includes Dan Haren, James Shields, Matt Garza, Jordan Zimmermann, Jake Peavy, Max Scherzer, Derek Holland, Erik Bedard and some closers.  With names like Ervin Santana, Daniel Hudson, Tim Hudson and Brandon McCarthy on the wire, Oswalt doesn’t stand out as a “must have”.  If he doesn’t regain his velocity and thus his strikeout rate, can he really be expected to be anything other than Paul Maholm/Mike Leake circa 2011?  A solid performer likely to have some gems, but not a season saver for your fantasy team.

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