I’ll post the rest later, but I’ve been quite busy at work today. I wanted to get Monday’s picks out for leagues that still allow pick ups (namely ESPN ones).
Brian Matusz v. OAK
Scott Baker v. CLE
Saturday: 06.4.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 9 The Weekend
I don’t usually post on Saturday, but I owe you all some spot starter picks! I fell asleep early and was out like a light last night. I finished my top 30 picks, then focused in entirely on my Tigers against the White Sox and wasn’t awake to see the end of the 6-4 loss. So let’s get these out quickly and you still might be able to make a move:
SATURDAY:
Doug Fister (SEA v. TB) – I never bought in on Fister last year and was eventually proven right as he ended the season with a 4.11 ERA. He just didn’t strikeout enough guys for my liking. He has changed that so far this year with 6.0 K/9 in May and 6.2 for the season. Combine that with a strong 2.0 BB/9 and this is an appealing skill set. The M’s are somehow smoking the Rays early on in this series and it doesn’t get easier for the Rays facing Fister.
Dillon Gee (NYM v. ATL) – Not much is going right for the Mets this year, but Gee has been a bright spot for the Mets rotation and I like him at home (2.20 ERA in Citi) against the Braves.
SUNDAY:
Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. COL) – The strikeouts are on the decline a bit in his last three starts, but he has a 0.38 ERA at home despite 5.3 K/9. He amps up the punchouts on the road (8.6) so if you need Ks, the trends say this might not be the best spot for him, but for a quality outing I’d go with him.
Erik Bedard (SEA v. TB) – His swan song on Trolling the Wire as his ownership rates continue to climb because owners are finally catching on.
James McDonald (PIT v. PHI) – He was positively brilliant in May (2.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 K/BB in 35 IP) and I think he can hold his own against the Phillies, especially at home (2.55 home ERA/6.49 road). His offense faces Roy Halladay so a win might be tough to come by, but we don’t chase wins.
Results (need to rally this weekend!) and Week 10 picks tomorrow…
Sunday: 05.29.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 9 Monday-Friday
Stupid ESPN scoreboard. They told me Bartolo Colon was pitching on Sunday against Seattle. Alas he did NOT, instead pitching on Monday while teammate CC Sabathia got the nod against the Mariners. That little mishap cost this week’s set of picks the chance at a sub-4.00 ERA. The week started off poorly with Colon allowing six in six against Toronto and his supposed counterpart for today, Jason Vargas, getting knocked around on Monday, too.
Chris Narveson was also torched on Tuesday, leaving the picks with a 10.93 ERA after just three starts. It was smooth sailing from that point forward as the remaining nine starters posted a 2.33 ERA in 58 innings, but as I mentioned it just wasn’t enough to erase that early damage. At least if you’re streaming in a head-to-head league, the picks down the stretch were much better than the rough start.
MONDAY:
Colon (NYY @ OAK) – It’s still a nice start against a weak offense in a friendly ballpark.
Ervin Santana (LAA @ KC) – The Royals offense has fallen back to the middle of the pack this month while Santana is getting into a groove. He will still have that implosion from time to time that leaves his composite numbers right around league average. I think this is a good spot for him.
Jason Hammel (COL @ LAD) – Hammel is something of an enigma as his first two years in Colorado saw some great skills paired with less-than-stellar ERA & WHIP totals not commensurate with those skills. This year the skills have eroded a bit, but the ERA & WHIP totals are around what we’d have expected in those other two years. I think his skills rise to where they were in 2009 and 2010 while holding firm or improving the ERA & WHIP, plus the Dodgers are an auto play-against team with their weak offense.
Prediction: Jo-Jo Reyes will break his no-win streak against Cleveland on Monday. I like his skills a bit and could see him on Trolling at some point soon. He’s been horrifically unlucky to this point. For now, I’ll just predict a win for him snapping that ugly streak.
TUESDAY:
Ryan Vogelsong (SF @ STL) – His ownership rates are on the rise, but he is still available in a ton of leagues for at least another week. The skills are there with a 7.0 K/9 and 2.9 K/BB so keep riding the streak while it lasts. With the rash of injuries hitting the pitching ranks of late, I’d hang onto Vogelsong for the time being.
Mike Minor (ATL v. SD) – He did well in last week’s start against a lame Pittsburgh Pirates offense and his reward is a start against the lowly San Diego Padres. They’ve been improved from their awful April performance, but I’m still not afraid of them. I really like Minor. Things will get crowded once Brandon Beachy gets back, but I think Minor will perform well enough to make things difficult for the Braves brass.
Erik Bedard (SEA v. BAL) – Bedard is no longer available in many CBS leagues (84%), but he’s still widely available in ESPN (66%) and Yahoo! (44%) leagues, so we’ll throw him out for another week, but he also joins the Hold List. He’s another guy who is probably being snapped up permanently a lot more given the spate of injuries that recently hit the game (Beachy, Josh Johnson and Wandy Rodriguez to name a few).
WEDNESDAY:
Chris Capuano (NYM v. PIT) – He has the one blowup in May (6 ER on 5/21), but otherwise he has allowed no more than 2 ER in his other four starts this month. The blowup was at the Yankees where he allowed four home runs so it’s fair to say it’s an anomaly. Best of all, he has 28 K in 29 innings this month. This a nice start for him.
THURSDAY:
Jordan Zimmermann (WAS @ ARI) – He’s off to the Hold List this week as his ownership rates creep near 70% at two of the three outlets (Y! is the holdout) and I don’t want to keep recommending a guy who isn’t widely available.
Tim Stauffer (SD v. HOU) – His skill set this year is really nice. He has kept most of his groundball gains from 2010 (53% after 55% last year) while adding strikeouts and cutting walks. Meanwhile his BABIP, LOB% & HR/FB indicators point toward some favorable ERA headed his way cutting into the 3.60 he is currently toting. I love him in a start against Houston, but that stupid, dumb offense of his might continue to cost him wins.
FRIDAY:
Danny Duffy (KC v. MIN) – Facing Texas twice and heading to Camden Yards, the rookie southpaw has acquitted himself well in the first three starts of his career all things considering. There is nothing particularly special about his 4.11 ERA or 1.57 WHIP (10 BB in 15.3 IP), but the 8.2 K/9 is very nice and he seems to be getting better start-to-start as he gets his feet underneath him in his debut season. He finally draws a favorable matchup and I think we could get our first glimpse of the high end ability this kid has in his future.
The weekend later this week…
Monday: 05.23.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 8 Tuesday-Friday
I am doing a great job at picking starters who end up involved in rainouts. Of course, half the league gets rained out nightly so I guess that’s not too surprising. Tuesday was a total washout with Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann getting wiped out, but I went back to the well with both on Sunday and it went quite well (14.3 IP, 2 ER, 8 K).
I pound this one home time and time and time again, but the week 7 Trolling picks accentuate perfectly just in case you still don’t believe: you cannot chase wins… ever. Twelve starters threw 78 innings with a 2.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP yet netted just two wins. TWO! It wasn’t a necessarily an ill-begotten ERA, either, as the group had a solid if unspectacular 6.1 K/9, but a very strong 2.5 K/BB.
We will still aim for skills first and foremost, but hopefully we can pull a few more wins with this week’s picks.
MONDAY: Found here.
TUESDAY:
Chris Narveson (MIL v. WAS) – He has spent most of May chiseling away at an ERA that was heavily damaged by a 7 ER in 2.3 IP outing, but now it’s at a very respectable 3.44 thanks to a really strong month. Again, I know you can’t pick and choose starts, but if you remove that outlier, you see a 2.34 ERA in eight starts with a strong 7.9 K/9. Of course, leave it in and the strikeout rate remains the same and the ERA above average, even in the very heavy pitching environment of 2011.
Charlie Morton (PIT v. ATL) – This is still a tough nut to crack with his just over 1 K:BB rate (1.12), but the insane groundball (62%) masks some of the K:BB shortcomings. He has three really weird starts with five walks in each and just one or two strikeouts (five total), but he has a 3.50 ERA in 18.3 innings with two wins during the starts. In his last two starts, he has five Ks in each with 14 and 17 groundballs, respectively. He’s facing a team with 21st ranked OPS on the heels of losing one of their best hitters in Jason Heyward. He has succeeded against much better teams including two complete games at Cincinnati (1 ER total).
WEDNESDAY:
James McDonald (PIT v. ATL) – He has really picked it up in May with a 3.18 ERA in 23 innings along with 24 strikeouts. Still a little inconsistent, but the favorable matchup (6th-most Ks in MLB) helps.
Erik Bedard (SEA @ MIN) – I’ll simply reiterate my Sunday Twidbit on Bedard: “After posting an 8.56 ERA in first 3 starts, Erik Bedard has a 1.97 ERA & 0.97 WHIP in last 5 w/7.3 K/9 & 2.4 K/BB.” Plus he has 18 K in his last 13 IP and he gets to face Minnesota in a pitcher’s ballpark.
Mike Minor (ATL @ PIT) – I love the skills of this kid and he’d have probably gotten a shot sooner had he been on rotation when they needed the spot starts that eventually went to Julio Teheran. He has better than a strikeout per inning in 53 innings at AAA-Gwinnett and just 2.4 BB/9 leading to a near-4.0 K/BB. He had nearly identical skills in 41 major league innings last year (9.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.9 K/BB) and I think he has a chance to be a high-impact starter the rest of the way.
THURSDAY:
Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. FLO) – His huge, albeit surprising, skills are holding strong with a 2.9 K/BB rate in 33 innings. He has also added in some luck so the 1.93 ERA will almost certainly rise a bit, but I’d be surprised if there was a total implosion as long as he maintains the skills hold.
FRIDAY:
Scott Baker (MIN v. LAA) – The Hold List is coming apart at the seams with Brandon McCarthy on the disabled list and Baker struggling in his last three with a 7.04 ERA, though he does have 21 Ks in 15 innings. While a 4.12 ERA might have been usable 2-3 years ago (in fact, Baker’s 4.37 in 2009 netted a 100 ERA+), it’s below average now which costs Baker his HL spot. That said, I’m going to use him for this matchup because the skills are still strong (2.8 K/BB power by 9.1 K/9) and his main weakness (home runs) isn’t a particular strength of the Angels (17th-most in baseball w/38).
Sunday: 05.22.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 8 Monday
I’ve only got a time for a very quick post before heading to bed (I’m beat), but I wanted to get Monday’s selections out. I’ll post Week 7 results and Tuesday-Friday picks tomorrow.
MONDAY:
Jason Vargas (SEA @ MIN) – Vargas has become a really nice spot starter that many still don’t believe in for some reason. Sure, he’s not a great pick if you’re chasing wins. But if you’re chasing wins then you’re not paying attention anyway. You look for the best possible scenarios for strong starts and let the wins fall where they may. There is just too much randomness tied to the stat to get caught up in chasing them. The Minnesota offense has been absolutely disgusting this year so while Vargas is usually more of a home-road play (leaning home), this is a prime road start for him.
Bartolo Colon (NYY v. TOR) – Colon is three-time pick on Trolling and he been amazing having posted a 1.57 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 10 K/BB in 23 innings of work. Further accentuating my point about chasing wins, he has just one win in the three outings. He is still widely available in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues with ownership rates under 35% while his CBS mark has risen to 73%. Of course that still leaves 17% and a lot of those are probably leagues where streaming pitchers is a viable strategy.
—
Keep An Eye On: Josh Outman (OAK) – I was a big fan of Outman’s back in 2009 when he was in the midst of a breakout before succumbing to injury that cost him all of 2010. He is back with the A’s and starting on Monday in Los Angeles and I recommended keeping him on your watch list. His minor league numbers are ugly as home runs and walks plagued him leading to a 4.78 ERA, but his 7.2 K/9 is right there in line with the 7.1 we saw in ’09. He was a bit fortunate back in ’09 with a .233 BABIP, but his massive flyball tendencies are less damaging in his home park so at the very least he could become a nice matchup play for his home starts. If you’re in a super-deep league looking for pitching and have a spot, he might be worth stashing ahead of the curve.
Week 7 results and the rest of the week tomorrow.
Sunday: 05.15.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 7 Monday-Friday
The week started off brilliantly with a pair of shutout performances from Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson. In fact through Tuesday, which included three starters for the first time on any given day, the five starters posted a 2.09 ERA across 34 innings. Then the week kind of came unhinged. Chris Narveson and Ryan Dempster delivered strong starts, but four flameouts and three rainouts derailed what was lining up to be a great week.
I told y’all I felt dirty recommending a no strikeout guy like Kevin Correia. I should’ve just stuck to the original plan with Jake Arrieta. The rainouts have been the real killers, giving those of us employing this strategy less margin for error and fewer chances for a gem.
The results to date have been pretty strong, though and the three hold listers who have emerged are proving to be legitimate assets worth relying on regardless of matchup and venue. No one joining the list this week, but let’s look at this week’s options for spot starts.
MONDAY:
Edwin Jackson (CHW v. TEX) – I still believe. Looking through his eight start gamelog, he really has just the two poor starts at Detroit and New York. The Rangers are a challenge, but I don’t think Jackson’s is a flimsy skill set that needs to be protected against anything but the weakest of opponents. He still has high strikeout potential meanwhile his control has held strong at 3.4 BB/9.
Joel Pineiro (LAA @ OAK) – The ERA isn’t going to hold at 1.33, but his pinpoint control, hyper-groundball profile can deliver a 3.50-3.75 ERA, seven innings at a time. I wouldn’t mess with him too often in innings cap leagues because of his meager strikeout rate, but he is an overlooked asset with legitimate value in the right league type.
TUESDAY:
Rick Porcello (DET v. TOR) – He’d better just throw four wide to Jose Bautista and move on. After allowing 10 runs in 10 innings in his first two starts, he has allowed just seven in the next 32 innings across five starts (1.99 ERA) with a passable 5.9 K/9. More importantly, he has a 3.0 K/BB walking just seven. His walk and groundball rates have held from last year while he has added more than a full strikeout per game to his rate. A 3.65 xFIP and 3.76 FIP suggest that his 3.67 ERA is completely legitimate. Buy with confidence.
Jordan Zimmermann (WAS v. PIT) – His ownership rates are a lot lower than I expected, including just 70% at CBS, so he gets a nod this week, though I suspect his 11 K outing will pump his rates back up. I recommend picking up and holding him where available as his strikeout ability is starting to shine through after a bit of a lull to start the season. He is still coming off of a major injury so I would expect him to continue getting better as the season wears on. He has a 3.44 ERA in 18 innings over three starts in May with 21 strikeouts and six walks. Buy NOW!
WEDNESDAY:
Jason Vargas (SEA v. MIN) – Vargas has a somewhat Porcellian profile with his moderate strikeout rate and big time control, but he lags behind a bit in groundball rate (43% to Porcello’s 49%). Vargas has a very favorable home park and strong defense supporting him, too. Throw in a matchup against the only offense as bad as or perhaps worse than Seattle’s and it is a nice opportunity to start him.
Bartolo Colon (NYY @ BAL) – He is a borderline Hold List candidate with an excellent 8.5 strikeout rate and even more appealing 4.1 K/BB rate, but the 1.5 HR/9 is a bit worrisome. His LOB% rate at 77% is bit higher than average (72%) and if that comes down it could be in the form of three-run homers. That said, I am happy to trust him start to start right as the 38-year old looks like a completely new man (or man and a half… didn’t think I’d get a fat joke in, didjya?).
THURSDAY:
Tyson Ross (OAK v. MIN) – After a shaky first start (3 ER in 4.3 IP), he really settled in with a 1.69 ERA in the four starts since. Oddly enough the first start was against the easiest competition (Mariners) while the four since have come against a range of competition, all reasonably viable (Angels, Indians, Royals and White Sox). The performance has been supported by a 3.6 K/BB which has included a usable 6.0 K/9.
Chris Narveson (MIL @ SD) – Narveson has served us well multiple times this year and now he gets a trip to San Diego. Sign me up.
FRIDAY:
Brad Penny (DET @ PIT) – Penny has 1 BB in last 20 IP and he’s carrying a career high 54% GB thus far. He’s another super-low strikeout guy (and he’s facing the one I regretted trusting last time in Correia), but the difference is that I have seen every single one of Penny’s starts and I had only seen Correia throw once this year. All that really means is I can more confidently back him as I have seen why he is succeeding in spite of the strikeouts. It still isn’t a profile I love by any stretch, but he is getting the job done despite the lack of whiffs. I wouldn’t use Penny, even for a spot start, in an innings cap or K/9 league, but he is worth trotting out against a weak opponent everywhere else.
Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. OAK) – The guy hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 before this year yet he is toting a 2.36 ERA 27 innings into his comeback. I guess it’s more of a “come” since he isn’t really coming back to anything having never really enjoyed much success in the early 2000s. It’s a small sample, but the skills profile (8.1 K/9, 3.0 K/BB) definitely supports his early success. He won’t maintain his 83% LOB% or .240 BABIP, but that just means he won’t be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. It doesn’t mean he can’t be a sub-4.00 pitcher.
Weekend picks later this week…
Friday: 05.13.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 6 The Weekend
Is it just me or does it feel like there is a significant (5+ innings) no-hit bid nightly lately? Maybe I can pluck some of those for Trolling the Wire and then if one of them happens to go the distance without allowing a hit then maybe we’d have a trade asset on our hands. It would probably have to be someone on the cusp of the hold list.
Heck, Francisco Liriano is a “name” guy and I was no more interested in him after his no-no than before. I offered advice to several tweeters and emailers not to take deals for Liriano post no-no. The Tuesday evening before he was set to pitch against my Tigers, I told my softball team in no uncertain words that he sucks.
“Don’t let a no-hitter fool you into believing he’s good,” I told them, “it takes more luck than skill to complete the feat especially against a lineup running as ineptly as the White Sox have been this year.” Liriano made me look smart by tanking and failing to make it through four innings. It doesn’t just go for Liriano, though.
If you didn’t believe in a pitcher’s skill and then he goes out and throws a no-hitter, nothing in his skill has really changed so don’t let a statistically oddity fool you. You should never really let any one game influence you too much one way or another, but sometimes the with all the hoopla that goes into a no-hitter, it is easy to fall victim. Same thing goes for cycles. When you really think about, cycles are a neat little thing, but there is nothing inherently great about them.
Let’s find our no-hit pitchers for the weekend:
SATURDAY:
Alex White (CLE v. SEA) – The rookie righty has captured some of Cleveland’s early season magic for himself with two solid starts to kick off his career. With 10 strikeouts in 12 innings and a 53% groundball rate, he is building a profile to believe in going forward. Make no mistake, though, this pick has a lot to do with his opponent. The Mariners have taken their .656 April OPS and made it worse posting a vomit-inducing, league-worst .549 mark in May thus far. White’s 95% LOB% won’t last, but Seattle might not get anybody on to even test the fluky rate.
Chris Narveson (MIL v. PIT) – Anyone perusing their league’s wavier wire might be wont to skip over Narveson as soon as they see the 4.38 ERA. In this pitching environment we’re dealing with right now, an owner may see him as run-of-the-mill junk. A deeper look at his gamelog shows that the ERA is pumped by one bad start. His April 25th outing where he allowed seven run in 2.3 innings or 37% of his earned runs. His ERA in the other six starts is 2.94. You can’t pick and choose which stats you want when playing fantasy baseball, but it does give a clearer picture of the pitcher to look game-by-game. Against a weak opponent, I’m very interested in a guy who is striking out nearly a batter an inning (8.5 K/9) and walking just three per game.
SUNDAY:
Kevin Correia (PIT @ MIL) – For as poor as Seattle is running, Milwaukee isn’t far behind with a team .566 OPS in May giving Correia a chance to keep his impressive, yet improbable, run going. I feel dirty just recommending someone with a sub-4.0 K/9, but he’s walking fewer than two per game and his groundball rate is over 50% on the year so there are some worthwhile skills within the profile. The Brewers have the third most strikeouts in the NL in May so maybe Correia can up his rate past four.
A lot of big arms are going on Sunday and the rest are unappealing so I’ll stick with the one pick.
Results for Week 6 and Week 7’s Monday-Friday picks coming up Sunday evening.
Thursday: 05.5.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 5 The Weekend
OK, I am going to stop recommending Sam LeCure because he never pitches when I put him on the Trolling the Wire list. Those who have pitched are doing pretty well as a whole so far this week so hopefully I can keep the momentum rolling with some strong weekend picks.
By the way, I am adding Bud Norris to “Hold” list with Brandon McCarthy. I think both are worth keeping on your roster permanently pretty much regardless of league format. He is piling up strikeouts (10.9 K/9) and walking 1.5 fewer batters than last year (3.0 BB/9 in 36 innings). He will make his final appearance on TtW this weekend*.
(*unless he falls off the Hold List at some point in the season. That would require a series of poor starts, but we’ll cover falling off the Hold List at a later time if McCarthy, Norris or any other participants fall off.)
SATURDAY:
Norris (HOU @ PIT) – He’s cutting up much better talent so of course I like him against the Pirates and their 25th-ranked offense according to runs scored. Maybe the removal of Brandon Lyon as closer will increase Norris’s chance at a win, too. In the interest of full disclosure, I have not checked to see if Lyon has blown any Norris starts.
Tom Gorzelanny (WAS @ FLO) – Off to a strong start this year, Gorzelanny seems to have refined his approach a bit resulting in some strong numbers. In his first start he allowed five earned runs in five and a third while striking out eight. He hasn’t approached that strikeout mark again topping out at four, but hasn’t allowed more than two in any of the four starts. He has been great in his two starts against Florida for his career, too, setting up a nice matchup for him to continue his strong start.
SUNDAY:
James McDonald (PIT v. HOU) – This was a guy I loved coming into the season and he got off to a pretty slow start last just 4.7 innings in his first start then allowing 5, 6 and 8 earned runs in his next three. He has put together a pair of strong six inning starts during his last two outings allowing just two runs, striking out eight and winning both decisions. Despite their overall ineptitude, Houston is 10th in runs, but that offense doesn’t really strike fear in anyone. Brett Wallace is the only one with a better than .900 OPS while Hunter Pence is the only other one above .800 among full-time players (Jason Bourgeois has a .929 in 46 AB).
Erik Bedard (SEA v. CHW) – Let’s pick on the White Sox while they are down. I think by season’s end they will be performing way better, but right now they are horrible with a .670 OPS that ranks 23rd in baseball. Plus it’s at home which only helps pitchers. Bedard is still getting on his feet after not pitching for all of 2010. I think that is an underrated factor that many don’t account for when analyzing him. It was a bit unreasonable to expect an automatic return to what we are used to out of him, but now we can see him rounding into form with a pair of strong starts against Detroit and Texas.
Results for Week 5 and the weekday picks for Week 6 coming on Sunday.
Sunday: 05.1.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 5 Monday-Friday
This week was a process for the Spot Starter picks. It started off poorly as posterboy Brandon McCarthy, who I recommended keeper permanently last week, was torched by the Angels allowing seven runs on 14 (!) hits in just five and a third innings. Meanwhile, my second pick on Tuesday (skipped Monday due to a lack of viable options) was his opponent, Tyler Chatwood, who I went with over Marco Estrada and Gavin Floyd in order to get the most favorable matchup.
He was passable and earned a win, but the Floyd was excellent against the Yankees (W, 8 IP, 2 ER, 10 K, 5 BR) and Estrada looked sharp against the Reds (7 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 5 BR). But I stand behind choosing Chatwood as those two were playing two of the best offenses in baseball and they happened to escape with some gems. The favorable play was passing on those two, especially for this strategy.
Then on Wednesday Derek Holland was ripped for five earned runs in the third straight start and all of a sudden I had three recommendations who totaled 15.7 innings allowing 15 runs with just six strikeouts. Of course there was plenty of time left in the week and the remaining seven selections all allowed three or fewer runs while five of them logged six or more innings.
The rally helped lower the season-long ERA while the five wins logged double the season total to 10.
Let’s keep the weekend momentum (1.75 ERA in 25.7 innings with the Saturday & Sunday starters) going into week 5:
MONDAY:
Bartolo Colon (NYY @ DET) – His ownership rates will likely bump up again after free agent pickups are run on Sunday, but as of now he remains available in a lot of leagues across all of the major outlets. He is striking batters out, he is inducing groundballs and he is going deep into his starts. There is just nothing within this profile so far to caution against buying into it. His resurgence is the epitome of Ron Shandler’s axiom: “Once a player displays a skill, he owns it.”
Derek Holland (TEX @ OAK) – The string of 5 ER starts has to stop here, right? Holland is too talented to keep getting pounded for a nickel each game and the A’s in their spacious stadium is a great place to get right. I will be watching this start to get a better handle on Holland, too. I haven’t seen him throw since the start in NY where Ron Washington was an idiot.
TUESDAY:
Sam LeCure (CIN v. HOU) – LeCure is a perfect matchup play as he feasts on the weak, but isn’t quite as strong against the stiffer competition. To wit, he has allowed 2 ER and 1 ER in starts against Houston and at San Diego, respectively, striking out 14 in 11 innings across the two starts. In his other two starts he allowed five to Arizona (including four HR) and three at Milwaukee in just 4.3 innings.
R.A. Dickey (NYM v. SF) – He hasn’t quite been as strong as he was in 2010, but nobody really expected him to be, either. He has been useful especially getting through some control issues early in the season. He is generally strong at home (1.99 ERA at Citi; 3.58 away in ’10) and the Giants aren’t scaring anyone with their lineup as Buster Posey slumps (5 for his last 26) and Pablo Sandoval, their best hitter so far this year, just went on the disabled list for 4-6 weeks with a hand injury.
WEDNESDAY:
Kevin Correia (PIT @ SD) – The Giants look like the ’27 Yankees compared to their divisional foes in San Diego as the Padres needed a 7-run surge today to finally top 80 runs for the season (84-last in the majors). Meanwhile, Correia has just one implosion this season while allowing two or fewer runs in four of his six starts. He likely won’t maintain his 2.90 ERA all year, but I doubt the regression begins against his old teammates.
Jake Arrieta (BAL @ KC) – The Royals offense is doing some nice work this year, but so is Arrieta having looked great in five of his six starts (an 8 ER in 3.3 IP shellacking against Texas as the lone blemish) which is masked by a 5.01 ERA. I like him to tame the Royals a bit and keep his streak going. He may even sneak a win, too, as his offense gets to face Kyle Davies.
THURSDAY:
Joel Pineiro (LA @ BOS) – After starting the season on the disabled list, many owners cut bait on Pineiro as he just made his season debut this past weekend. The Red Sox are still trying to find their footing so I like Pineiro to take advantage and induce plenty of weak contact en route to a solid showing.
Brandon Beachy (ATL v. MIL) – He is this week’s pick to keep as his ownership starting to increase with each passing great start. I’m not sure what took so long. Of course, he is still available in quite a few leagues so he makes the list at least once more. He has a sub-1.00 WHIP and a strikeout per inning pitched, I can’t imagine a format where that isn’t useful.
FRIDAY:
Jonathon Niese (NYM v. LAD) – He just keeps performing so he keeps getting recommended. His ERA looks available after being inflated in back-to-back starts in early April when he gave up 11 in 10 innings to Philly and Colorado. Since then he has reeled off three straight 2 ER starts allowing just the six runs in 19.3 innings. The Dodgers are essentially a two-man lineup right now so Niese should be able to continue rolling.
Phil Humber (CHW @ SEA) – Pitcher on a roll + garbage opponent + pitching in garbage opponent’s excellent ballpark = auto-start. Humber is another guy with only one real significant negative mark on his record (4 ER in 5.3 against Tampa Bay), but he has been sharp otherwise including a gem under the spotlight in Yankee Stadium. The MAAAriners shouldn’t prove too challenging.
Weekend picks later in the week…
Baseball By Paul 