Thursday: 01.21.2010

26 Under 26 Part 1

As I prepare myself for another fantasy baseball season (which seems to be a year-round endeavor these days, and I’m not complaining), I love to see how everyone is valuing “The Next Big Things”. I think as a whole the fantasy community generally overvalues youth in hopes of landing the next Albert Pujols or Ryan Braun. Then when someone does struggle out of the gate (as many, perhaps most, do), they are cast aside as a failure by a large segment of the community as another next big thing is put on a pedestal. This then creates value in subsequent seasons for the “failures”.

I used to heavily favor youth in my gameplan, probably to a fault. But in recent years I’ve become much more risk averse and therefore have curbed my desire to acquire rookies unless they present tremendous value. Of course they are caveats to all strategies based on the draft you’re in. I won’t get into those right now because that’s probably a whole other 2000-word piece. I want to present a group of 26 players 26 & under who I think are ready for a significant step forward. There aren’t any superstars on this list. Everyone knows that Prince Fielder is a stud who will deliver. Same with Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton and Evan Longoria. These are first and second rounders that I don’t need to cover. That isn’t to say the list is a group of unknowns. That’s not the case at all. It’s just a group of young players poised for a step forward that will give them value beyond their average draft position (ADP).

I’ve ranked the 26 players based on their overall value in my estimation:

26. Jesus Flores, C – Washington Nationals – I wanted to rate him as high as 23rd, but the presence of Ivan Rodriguez makes that impossible. Despite being 100 years old, Pudge is still churning out the at-bats however poor they may be and that will relegate Flores to a sub-400 AB season barring an injury or a complete fade of Pudge’s skills (I’m talking even worse than his .664 OPS from last year). Flores has had flashes and through 90 at-bats last year, he appeared to be in on his way towards a breakout season hitting .311/.382/.522. Injuries would relegate him to just three at-bats the rest of the way. Even in 350 at-bats, he could pop 12-14 home runs with a .270 average. That’s a pretty solid C2, heck it wouldn’t be the worst C1 given the wasteland that is catching.

25. Steve Pearce, 1B – Pittsburgh Pirates – After just 165 at-bats last year, Pearce should be ready for a full workload in 2010. It’s make or break time for him with the Pirates as they are starting to build something bordering on legitimacy with this front office and he will be pressed out of action if he hits .206 again. I see Pearce putting up a Garrett Jones-type season (low 20s in home runs with 10-12 stolen bases) except across 450-500 ABs instead of the 314 Jones used to hit 21 bombs with a .293 average. Pearce struggles far too much against righties to hit .293 like Jones without vast improvement, but he can mash lefties enough to sustain a .265 average. He’s definitely an NL-Only league option right now, but like Jones he could emerge into an option across all formats.

24. Buster Posey, C – San Francisco Giants – I discussed Posey for 2010 in a piece some time back. I think he will be impactful as a mid-level catcher, but the fantasy community appears to have learned from Matt Wieters a season ago. Posey isn’t going outrageously early and that’s good because he is very unlikely to have a massive season. Geovany Soto’s 2008 is an exception to how rookie catchers perform while Wieters’ struggles relative to expectations is more in line with what you should expect. There is so much demand defensively and with handling the staff that hitting becomes secondary. Play up Posey’s poor showing at the AFL when he was clearly gassed from such a laborious season and hopefully you can drive his value down even further. A hot spring would likely put him in the Wieters Zone, but stay strong and value him around what John Baker was last year, at least in terms of overall value ($11). … Stupid Bengie Molina!!!

23. Chris Young, OF – Arizona Diamondbacks – Yes, I love the guy. I know I’m not alone but this bandwagon has cleared out since the beginning of 2009. It is so hard to forget the 32 home runs and 27 stolen bases from 2007. At 26, it’s not unreasonable to believe he can get back to that level or better, but it is going to take significant improvements from Young. He must change his approach if he wants to stick around in this league. The simple fact is that his tools alone, which are plentiful, won’t get him through 162 games. At least not 162 games at the major league level. This is his last chance to a relevant fantasy asset. He will come cheap and could return massive dividends.

22. Eric Young Jr., 2B – Colorado Rockies – Young doesn’t have a guaranteed spot in 2010, but he will contend with Clint Barmes and could push his way into some outfield at-bats, too. His primary asset is a ridiculous amount of speed. In the minors since 2006, he’s stolen 87, 73, 46 and 58 bases while hitting between .290 and .299. His ceiling in 2010 would be a Juan Pierre clone, but I wouldn’t bank on the batting average coming right away. Though it was just 57 at-bats, Young looked lost at the dish during his big league stint in August and September. On the low end, he will be a cheap speed option in NL-Only leagues struggling for regular at-bats. Keep an eye on his battle for playing time in Spring Training and pay accordingly.

21. Ryan Sweeney, OF – Oakland A’s – I’m a big fan of Sweeney’s. He’s a very good hitter and he managed to stay relatively healthy and log 484 at-bats. His primary contribution is a high batting average as evidenced by his .293 last year and .291 in 1928 minor league at-bats. He’s got the ability to hit .310-.320, but it remains to be seen how much more he can offer apart from that. He doesn’t do much by way of home runs or stolen bases while his runs scored and driven totals are hampered by being on an anemic squad in Oakland. At 25 (in February), he is still growing as a hitter so I think we will see more power come perhaps even in 2010. I think his ceiling is about 12-14, especially in that cavernous ballpark. He has the ability to match that figure in stolen bases, but given his injury history I don’t see the A’s putting any unnecessary pressure on his body and allowing him to run much more than he did last year.

20. Lastings Milledge, OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – Some idiot thought this guy was going to be HUGE last year. Yep, it was me. The only huge stat he posted in 2009 was games missed: 97. In late June he was traded from the Nationals to the Pirates where he will now be a left fielder after the emergence of uber-prospect Andrew McCutchen in center. Milledge, like a handful of guys on this list, is someone who has been labeled a bust already despite the fact that he isn’t yet 25 years old (April 5th) and has 1117 at-bats spreading across parts of three seasons and one full season. He’s the kind of guy who starts reaching his potential and people write stupid articles headlined, “Where Did Milledge Come From?” as if he’s a complete unknown or as if there wasn’t a colossal overreaction to bury these kids the instant they don’t come up and hit like Ryan Braun. Milledge is a very good power/speed capable of topping his 14 HR/24 SB season from 2008, but probably not right away. I would use that season as a gauge of what Milledge is capable of, but don’t pay for based off of that season for the simple fact that it’s completely unnecessary. He’s available VERY late across all formats.

I will do another part with 19-11 and then 10-1 soon.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 01.21.2010

Baseball by Paul Podcast: Episode 2

The second show is up at the BbP Podcast page and on iTunes. I talked with Will Carroll from BaseballProspectus.com about a bunch of players and how injuries will affect their draft status in 2010.

Can you count on Jose Reyes to put you in top three in SBs?
Is Reyes teammate Carlos Beltran worth gambling on?
How much of the Cy Young form will Brandon Webb regain in 2010?
In what way does Erik Bedard your psycho ex-girlfriend?
Will Daisuke Matsuzaka bounce back?

This and much more with Will…

Episode 2 w/Will Carroll

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Podcast, Predictions, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

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Tuesday: 01.19.2010

Baseball by Paul Podcast: Episode 1

The podcast is back! I’ve started up the Baseball by Paul podcast over at BlogTalkRadio.com with the debut episode airing earlier this evening with Fanball.com’s Jason Collette. Jason is a colleague of mine from Owner’s Edge at Fanball and he also runs the blog Dock of the Rays about his Tampa Bay Rays.

He and I spoke for an hour about the mock draft season covering strategies, average draft positions (ADP) specifically focusing on a group of players we found overvalued and undervalued, a group of players that have landed on his teams often and finally we went rapid fire on a group of players I find interesting for the 2010 season. Jason was excellent and the show went really well as far as I’m concerned.

I’m looking to do episodes on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. Tuesdays and Thursdays will be at 5 PM central while the Saturday will be an afternoon show without a set time just yet. On Thursday I will have injury guru, Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus. We are going to hit on a bunch of players coming off of injuries, still laboring through injuries and possible red flagged to be injured in 2010.

Show Homepage
Episode 1 with Jason Collette

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Mock Drafts, Off-Season, Podcast, Radio Show | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 01.18.2010

2010 Focus: Grady Sizemore

Despite playing for a chief rival of my beloved Detroit Tigers, Grady Sizemore is a favorite of mine. He’s a do-everything fantasy asset that is important to the Indians as he is to your fantasy team and few guys were more sought after coming into the 2009 season than Sizemore. He was fresh off of a 30-30 season in 2008 and the only thing keeping him from being a legitimate #1 overall pick contender was batting average, which had lingered around .270 the two seasons prior to 2009. He was as reliable as they come too having played in 158, 162, 162 and 157 games in the four years leading up to 2009. So what happened?

Of course he only played 108 games, most of which he seemed to labor through with nagging injuries that would eventually shelve him for most of June and September, and failed to reach even .250 (.248) while hitting just 18 home runs and knocking in 64 runs. His 13 stolen bases were 25 off of his 2008 mark. It was a pretty significant bust of a season instead of a bust out 40-40 chasing season. But enough about last year. We need to accept that it was a washed out season and look forward to what Sizemore can do in 2010.

As is almost always the case, stars coming off of washout seasons in one year should be primary targets the next (exceptions being major, career-altering injuries). This is because the general populous of fantasy baseball owners tends to forgot those who don’t play or under-perform expectations. If not forget, at least shun. Sizemore’s average draft position (ADP) so far this season is 25th, which is third round for standard 12-team mixed mock draft. Even in AL Only leagues he’s sitting at 12th overall. Wow, how quickly we forget that this guy was a perennial 25-25 guys with 100 runs and 80 RBIs from 2005-2008. Mind you, this slide doesn’t bother me, especially if it holds until the Spring when real drafts and auctions start to take place. All things out of Cleveland have Sizemore at 100% by Spring Training and if he performs at all in the Cactus League, his draft spot will start heading upward.

Of the 24 going ahead of him right now, I’d take him ahead of Tim Lincecum (12), Ian Kinsler (16), Mark Reynolds (19), Victor Martinez (22), Jason Bay (23) and Matt Holliday (24). I would have a tough call between he and Carl Crawford (14) and might normally slot him above Jimmy Rollins (20) and Jose Reyes (21) if shortstop weren’t so god-awfully shallow. And I’d personally prefer him over Ryan Howard (10), but not at Howard’s ADP so I didn’t include him. The trick with a draft is that you don’t know where the other owners value everyone else so sometimes you have to take what might look like a reach to some but is impossible to really judge. If I’m picking 8th in a 12 team and I get Miguel Cabrera in the first round and then Sizemore is available at 17, I have to take him if I want him because there is virtually no chance he’s going to make it to 32. Is that a reach because his ADP is eight spots lower or is the right move because I took him with my slot in that ADP range. My only pick near the #25 spot is #17, so I either get my guy or bet that he’s now going to fall below seven spots below his ADP.

But enough on game theory in straight drafts. The bottom line is that I’m in the camp ready to bet on a full return by Sizemore in 2010. I wouldn’t let him get past me in the 2nd round of straight drafts regardless of what slot I’m picking in and I see him as a centerpiece investment in auction leagues. The beauty of it is you might not have to invest in him like a top tier player depending on when your auction takes place. Since a lot (ok, 4) of emailers have asked for the projection line as in the Wieters and Posey profiles, I will oblige.

Sizemore in 2009: .248-73-18-64-13
Sizemore in 2010: .290-115-32-85-25

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Thursday: 01.7.2010

2010 Third Basemen: 10-1

Finally wrapping up my three part series on third basemen with my top 10. As I’ve blasted through several mock drafts already this offseason, one thing was apparent early on: 3B is paper thin. It’s not the thinnest position, I will get to that next week when I unveil my shortstop rankings, but it’s a close second. There is some viable star power at the top, but it dries up in a hurry and then becomes a handful of names in a hat. I don’t even think the top 10 is fully bankable, starting at 10:

10. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves – Jones has topped 500 at-bats just once in the last six seasons (513 in 2007) yet he has managed to routinely put up top tier seasons in his limited playing time. Until last year. It was his worst HR (18) and RBI (71) season ever and his second-worst batting average (.264). His .264 was a 100-drop from his excellent 2008 leaving many wondering what to make of the two vastly disparate seasons. He hit .292 in the first half followed by .239 in the second so it’s hard to make much out of 255 poor at-bats. His 2008 power was a significant decline from where he had been all his career and then 2009 was another stair step down suggesting that it is likely for real at age 38. He is likely done with 20-home run seasons, but another .300 season may not be out of the question. Don’t pay for anything more than .285-15-75 while praying for .320-20-90 in one final hurrah.

9. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox – Youk acquitted himself brilliantly after a 2008 breakout turning in a near carbon copy performance in 33 fewer plate appearances. Though more valuable at third base without question, his dual-eligibility (1B) is a nice bonus. At 31, it looks like he has another 2-3 seasons at this level with a legitimate shot to top 30 home runs. In an OBP-league, Youk goes from solid to truly elite in the rate category. He is well known for his batting eye and after back-to-back .390 OBP seasons, he finally topped .400 last year (.413). If your league penalizes for getting your punkass smoked by 20-year old future aces, you may want to pass on Youkilis.

8. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants – I was a bit skeptical of Sandoval coming into last season. The hype was massive especially as many salivated over his potential catcher-eligibility. He eventually delivered to the leagues with loosest eligibility rules as he played three games behind the dish, but his stats were so good that it didn’t matter where you put him in your lineup. Like Youkilis, he holds 1B/3B eligibility though his days as a backstop are likely over. I don’t mind admitting I missed the boat on Sandoval, but I refuse to make the same mistake twice. There is nothing in his stat set that suggests he is a fraud and at 24, there is likely more power on the way. He racked up 79 runs and 90 RBIs in that garbage lineup last year which stands to improve in 2010 with newly acquired Mark DeRosa, a full season of Freddy Sanchez, growth in a full time role from Nate Schierholtz and rookie phenom Buster Posey. This could push Sandoval into 90 R/100 RBI territory if things break right. Plenty to like here.

7. Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks – This ranking isn’t a complete indictment of Reynolds so much as it is my preference for six others above him. That is to say I don’t think he will be a bum in 2010. He has completely legit middle-of-the-lineup power, but a 26% HR/FB just isn’t sustainable meaning the 44 HR total is coming down. I expect him to be in the low 30s for home runs this year. A lot is made of his batting average going from .239 in 2008 to .260 last year, but you are really looking at about 11-12 hits either way. Over the course of 26 weeks, that isn’t much. The home run dip will definitely drop his value from where it was in 2009, but the real drop will come in the stolen base department. He is much more likely to get the 11 he had in 2008 than the 24 he had last year. I would put him in the mid-teens and go from there. Consider that he had 11 in 1216 minor league at-bats and none during his first 405 major league at-bats. Even a .250-30-90-13 line is extremely valuable despite being a far cry from his 2009 breakout. The problem is that you’re going to pay a premium for 2009 in many leagues.

6. Chone Figgins, Seattle Mariners – Going from fantasy baseball Swiss Army Knife to 3B-only has impacted Figgins’ value. Unfairly in my opinion. Yes it was awesome when you could slot him in so many different spots, especially the middle infield spots, but he’s not worthless as a third baseman. Third base is a power position, but if you draft Figgins there you just adjust your plan to get power elsewhere. It’s not the end of the world. To hear some talk about it, if you draft Figgins you’re destined to last place in home runs before the season even starts. He has slowly added a sharp eye to his arsenal topping 100 walks for the first time ever last year. Though it was a large 39-walk improvement from 2008, it is supported by his gradual improvement since 2005. A great average and high walk total are perfect for improving his primary offerings in fantasy baseball: runs scored and stolen bases. A .290-100-40 line makes Figgins a viable 3-category. It’s not the three you generally you expect out of third base, but that doesn’t mean it is bad, just different.

5. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs – Ramirez labored through a bum shoulder in 2009 that relegated him to just 306 at-bats, but he still managed .317-46-15-65 in that time. He’s one of the more unheralded corner men as compared to his peers in this top 10, but he is as consistent as they get when on the field. And better yet, he won’t cost as much as some who will rank behind him. He’s had a few other stints on the disabled list during his time, but from 2001-2008 he averaged 146 games played with 30 HR and 100 RBI while hitting .289. The time off this winter gives him time to heal and come into Spring Training at 100%. A 100% Ramirez means another 30/100 season. He appears to have cured his woes against southpaws (.239 in 2008, .350 in ’09) making another .300+ season a near certainty. He should come cheaper than many of the elite 3B making him a great target.

4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals – From a pure value as compared to draft position standpoint, there might not have been anyone better than Zimmerman last year. Would you be surprised if I told you it was Zimmerman’s fourth full season in the bigs last year? Or would you more surprised if I told you he is just 25 years old? It should be no surprise that a player who showed excellent promise upon reaching the majors still had room to grow by season four and may still have another level yet. Too often a player is pigeonholed after a season or two when they first come up without much thought given to the fact that young players can get better as they pile up at-bats even if those first two seasons were very good. He has .310+ capability in his bat which take him up another level in the overall rankings when paired with 100-35-100. Don’t back down in a bidding war for his services.

3. David Wright, New York Mets – I originally had Wright second ahead of Longoria, but upon further review I made the switch but I don’t hate Wright in 2010 as many do. He had a bad season in 2009, there are no two ways around it. But he was positively brilliant for four straight seasons before that so why should one down season erase that body of work? That answer is it shouldn’t but in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately culture we live in, his value will be depressed (severely in some instances) on the heels of last year. Make no mistake, Citi Field WAS NOT the reason for his power outage. I don’t care how many magazines or how many times ESPN tells you as much, it’s simply not true. Trying to make heads or tails of his 2009 is fruitless endeavor. You can try and tailor excuses to fit his struggles and talk about how his stolen base bump alleviated some of the pain of the power outage, but it’s all futile at this point. He had a poor season. They happen. Even to superstars. He is going to be 27 in 2010 and if early mock drafts are any indication, he is going to be a huge value. He went 11th in an NL-Only I did and 15th (to me) in a 15 team mixed league that I was in. A good spring will restore the faith back in him and level set his value where it belongs, but anything mediocre or worse will leave him in the bargain zone.

2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays – An amazing pair of seasons already for Longoria who turned 24 in the offseason and has an even brighter future ahead of him. I think both 40-HR and .300+ AVG capability are within his skillset, though the latter may take another two to three years to develop as he works on his ability to make contact more consistently while the former could happen as soon as 2010. He may even sneak into the low teens in stolen bases after notching seven and nine in his first two seasons. There isn’t much more to say about this budding superstar except that I like him as a late first/early second round pick in mixed drafts and as high as third overall (behind A-Rod and Miguel Cabrera) in AL-Only leagues.

1. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees – In 444 at-bats, he nearly matched the 2008 totals he accumulated in 510 at-bats. And that was coming off of hip surgery and a remarkably tumultuous offseason during which he confessed to taking PEDs. At 34, he remains one of baseball’s absolute best players and he has another 2-3 MVP-caliber seasons in him starting with a healthy 2010. The mock drafters are very cognizant of this fact as he has an ADP of 3 at both CouchManagers.com and MockDraftCentral.com. Even with the hip surgery, he came back and stole 14 bases when many believed that element of his game would be almost completely cut out. He remains a bona fide 5-category superstar worthy of that ADP. In AL-Only leagues, he’s still my first pick overall. I’m so very glad I went against my initial instinct and bought into the hype about the injury and missed time during the preseason last year. As you may recall (since I’ve told the story ~ 4.7 million times), I had to turn in a 2-keeper list for my AL-Only league. I had Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and BJ Upton. I figured those were three of the top five in the AL at their best so I went with the two who would be playing from Opening Day and threw A-Rod back. It was the first time in 13 years that A-Rod wasn’t on my team and it cursed my season from the start. He was drafted second overall (behind Matt Holliday) and likely won’t be available to draft in the league ever again unless he hangs around too long and has a few flameout seasons at the end. For the record, I’m keeping Joe Mauer with Teixiera this year.

Next up: Shortstops

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Strategy, Third Base | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 01.6.2010

Mock Draft Season

If you’re like me, you’re insane. OK, maybe not insane, but a you’re definitely a rabid fantasy baseball fan. The day the season ended, I was scouting for members for a mock draft. It took a little while to materialize, but we got one going throughout October over at the BaseballHQ.com forums. I’ve posted a few of the rounds with commentary here. The Mock Draft Season really gets going during November and throughout the winter. Prior to last year, or I guess two years ago since I’m referring to 2008 (dang new year tripping me up), there was really only one reliable, worthwhile spot to hold your drafts. That was MockDraftCentral.com. They have a pretty solid set up and plenty of drafts.

During the 2008 Mock Draft Season I was invited to a draft at CouchManagers.com for the first time. The first thing I liked was the fact that it got through my work’s filter without issue. That allowed me to sign up for slow mocks that would take place primarily during normal business hours when your pick could come up at any time. Since that first draft I’ve become a big time advocate of the site. It’s the absolute best for running slow mocks that don’t need to be completed in a 2-hour space. I’m sure their fast ones that are all at once are great too, I just haven’t participated in any of that type.

The absolute best thing about CouchManagers that I’ve noticed is their responsiveness to any issue. If there’s a mispick, problem with the player pool, status issue with someone on auto-pick or whatever, you send out an email to them and the response time is very sharp. I’ve heard they are great at accommodating league drafts, too. So if you want your actual draft held their instead of just a mock, then CouchManagers is the place.

So head over to their front page and check out their list of available Auctions, Slow Mocks, Fast Mocks and Custom Mocks. Enjoy!

Posted in Baseball, Mock Drafts | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 01.4.2010

Schedule This Week

I’ll have content up Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Thursday is the National Title Game with my Longhorns involved and then Friday I’m off to Vegas for the weekend. After Wednesday (when I will try to post 2-3 things), I won’t post until at least Monday of next week.

Posted in Baseball, Here & There, Off-Season | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 01.3.2010

2010 Third Basemen: 17-11

What’s a good way to spend your Christmas vacation? Researching and writing about fantasy baseball for the upcoming season. What’s a great way to spend your Christmas vacation? Barreling through all three seasons of a wonderful show your parents turned you on to: Burn Notice. I was hooked after one episode and just couldn’t stop until about 10 minutes ago when I finished the season 3 summer finale. I wish it was coming back tomorrow. Alas, I’ll have to wait. That leaves me ample time to finish my third basemen up.

Part 1

17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres – I will admit up front that Kouz is likely the beneficiary of my spite towards Jhonny Peralta (#18). I’d have probably had them flipped if I could get over my disdain for Peralta after his flop in 2009. Maybe the slight of being ranked behind Kouzmanoff will light a fire under Peralta for 2010. Kouz isn’t anything special and he has a home park liability in San Diego, but he’s delivered 18-23-18 home runs the last three seasons with rising RBI totals each season (74-84-88) to go with the power. You could do worse for your corner infielder. One caveat with Kouz is that you need to have a strong stomach and endure the ride start to finish. Suffer through a 1 HR/8 RBI April and you will be around for the 10 HR/32 RBI results the following two months. Trying to time his hot and cold streaks is futile.

16. Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers – Want Kouzmanoffian results with a lengthier track record and a better batting average? Go for Blake then. The downside is that at 37, he’s eight years older thus his skills could cliffdive without warning. I don’t believe they will, but the possibility lurks with someone pushing 40. Given that a large portion of the fantasy baseball populous is age averse, Blake usually comes at a great price.

15. Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox – On August 4th, Beckham’s batting average was at a season-high .316. He had just finished a blistering July during which he hit .330/.382/.526 in 97 at-bats. This is also about point where memory of Beckham’s season seems to go blank for many. At least that is what his 95 ADP would suggest. He hit a whimpering .225 the rest of the way leaving him with a .270 for the season. He did manage eight more home runs over those final two-plus months for a total of 14 on the year. But 378 solid at-bats with various peaks and valleys hasn’t earned him top 100 placement in my book. Not ahead of the likes of Torii Hunter or teammates Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez. Even I don’t think the hot corner depth is that desperate. Beckham will get his 600 plate appearance season and we will see how he holds up to the rigors of a full major league season when the league has a book on him. I wouldn’t go in expecting much more than slight improvements on his 14 home runs and seven stolen bases. The runs scored and driven in totals will be around 85 if he holds the 2-spot in the lineup (218 of his 378 ABs were at #2) while the average can range from the .270 he ended with in 2009 up to .290 if things break his way. After all, the difference between those two figures is a mere 10 hits over 550 at-bats. Be reasonable with your expectations of Beckham in 2010.

14. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins – Cantu might as well be the Hispanic Rodney Dangerfield of corner infielders because he just doesn’t get much love. After re-breaking out in 2008 with a 29-home run season, Cantu’s HR output slid considerably in 2009 with just 16, but he still managed 100 RBIs and raised his batting twelve points to .289. He was still hitting the ball well with 42 doubles (41 in ’08), but just as his HR/fb rate was a bit lucky in 2008 (13%), it was equally unlucky in 2009 at 7%. Cantu is a very good 20 HR/90 RBI corner infield option whose lack of respect drives down his price. And hey, if things break his way in 2010 he could have another home run season pushing 30 as he has done twice now in his career.

13. Adrian Beltre, Free Agent – If you thought Beltre was undervalued coming into 2009 on the heels of three straight seasons averaging 25 home runs, 88 RBIs and 11 stolen bases, wait until you see how disrespected he gets after an injury-plagued that relegated him to an 8-44-13 season. Even if he does land somewhere favorable, at best he will get back in the undervalued zone he inhabited last year. Mind you, this is good news for those of us paying attention. When Gordon Beckham has an ADP of 95 and Beltre sits at 205, you can bet that I’m going to take Beltre 110 picks later every single time.

12. Michael Young, Texas Rangers – Young left the shortstop pool with a bang. He put up third baseman numbers giving him remarkably valuable dual-eligibility. In addition to his always potent batting average, he had a power resurgence clubbing 20+ home runs for the first time since 2005. But I would temper any expectations of that continuing. Both power surges were caused by an abnormal HR/fb rate. During those seasons he had 14% and 15%, respectively while he’s regularly more of a 7-9% guy. While I’m very bearish on his HR output, he still holds plenty of value with his .300 average and 80+ runs scored and driven in totals. Bet on those figures with 11-13 home runs as a baseline and enjoy anything more as a bonus.

11. Ian Stewart, Colorado Rockies – My worst fear realized this offseason? Stewart’s stock skyrocketing before my eyes. Second and third base dual-eligible 25 year olds with legitimate 30 home run power don’t grow on trees. Unfortunately for me, many others are noticing that very same thing. A .524 slugging percentage in 2297 minor league at-bats proves the power potential is legit. His big deficiency at the majors has been a poor batting average. He posted a .259 in 81 games in 2008 and then fell to .228 in 147 games last year. This next season could very resemble Mark Reynolds‘ 2008: 28 HR, 97 RBI and a .246 average. For this kind of power production and positional eligibility, it’s not terribly hard to overlook the batting average.

Next: the top 10.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Strategy, Third Base | 1 Comment »

Wednesday: 12.23.2009

2010 Focus: Kevin Slowey

One of my favorite pitchers coming into 2009, Slowey was cut down after just 91 innings with a strained right wrist that eventually required surgery and ended his season on July 3rd. Though known for his remarkable control, Slowey isn’t a junkballer who gets by strictly on that control. He has maintained an above average strikeout rate since coming into the league in 2007 and it has steadily improved year over year. He went from 6.3 in 67 innings in 2007 to 6.9 in 160 innings in 2008 to a very healthy 7.4 last year. All the while keeping his BB/9 in the 1.3 to 1.5 range. That is sheer brilliance. To wit, only Joel Pineiro (1.1) and Roy Halladay (1.3) were sharper in 2009 amongst pitchers with at least as many innings as Slowey (1.5). In 2008, nobody bested Slowey’s 1.35 mark. It was moved out two decimal places because Cliff Lee (1.37), Mike Mussina (1.39) and Greg Maddux (1.39) were close. And in 2007, even with keeping the innings threshold in line with Slowey’s total (67), he finished 7th at 1.5.

He is expected to be ready to go by the start of Spring Training and I expect him to pick up where he left off and make good on the breakout promise he has shown thus far. He will be 26 years old shortly after the season begins (May 4th to be exact) and I believe he has another level to be reached in his game. It will all hinge upon his ability to keep the ball in the yard. Slowey is a severe flyball pitcher which thus far stands as the lone fly in his ointment (see what I did there?). It has led to ugly HR/9 rates ranging from 1.2 (in 2008 during his best season) to 2.2 (in 2007 which led to a 4.76 ERA). Last year, despite a brilliant 5.0 K/BB ratio, he was saddled with a career-worst 4.86 ERA because of a 1.5 HR/9.

The potential downside of the laser-like control displayed by Slowey is the fact that the ball is almost always over the plate. That means the ball will be hit, often. Where it goes determines the pitcher’s success. The perfect storm is pinpoint control and a high groundball rate to match. That leads to something resembling Pineiro’s excellent 2009 season in which he had a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP thanks to a 60% GB rate accompanying his aforementioned league-best BB/9 of 1.1. Imagine if he had the strikeout rate of Slowey, he’d have been nearly untouchable.

I don’t expect Slowey to all of a sudden induce groundballs at that kind of eye-popping clip. Heck, no one expected Pineiro to either as it was an 11% increase on the rate he had produced in the two years previous. Right now, Slowey is averaging around 33% each year. In order to have the kind of staff-leading season his K/BB suggests he can have, he will need to get that up to at least 40% if not closer to 45%. In the absence of such a rise, he will need to dramatically cut his HR/9. It can be done. Jered Weaver has shown as much with a flyball rate nearly identical to Slowey’s, but a HR/9 consistently at 1.0. Of course Weaver does this by defying the generally accepted norm of 10% HR/fb rate. He has held steady at 8% for virtually his entire career. Slowey can learn from what Weaver is doing should he not be able to correct his flyball ways instead.

For now, I strongly advise you pay for 2008 as your ceiling (3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, nearly 7.0 K/9) while knowing that hidden value may be on the horizon in the form of an improved groundball rate which could easily lop as much as 0.50 off of his ERA giving you an ace-like pitcher at #2 or even #3 cost, depending on how your league values injury comebacks. Go the extra dollar to secure his services and your WHIP will thank you mightily.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 12.22.2009

Javy Vazquez to NY: The Fantasy Impact

Twitter is blowing up with 140-character chunks of analysis on the latest Yankees trade which netted them Javier Vazquez for the Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizciano. Instead of focusing on who won or lost the deal (consensus is the Braves were slaughtered, but I’m not entirely sure), let’s look at the fantasy baseball impact of the move.

In early November, I published the first edition of my top 60 starting pitchers for 2010. It was a first run that has already undergone serious changes (I had forgotten about Jordan Zimmerman‘s Tommy John Surgery for one thing) and this trade will affect yet another big change. I rated Vazquez 9th in between Josh Beckett and Jake Peavy. I loved him as an ace based not only on his excellent 2009 season, but also the elite skills displayed each of the four years prior to 2009. In those four seasons he struck out 8.4 per nine while walking just 2.3, but he was saddled with a 4.41 ERA and a sub-.500 record (49-51). I expect the skills to remain strong, but I’d be blown away if he managed an ERA anywhere near his 2009 mark. He has a 4.02 ERA in 1664 National League innings, but a 4.52 ERA in 826 American League innings.

Vazquez is going to move down my list a healthy bit with his move to New York. If you’re looking for specifics on his numbers, I’d project at least an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP slightly above his career level of 1.25. The biggest problem will be the rise in HR/9. He was at a sparkling 0.8 last year, but 1.5 during his first tour in New York. If he’s at 1.5 again in 2010, the 4.20 ERA might be way off. Look for at least a 1.2 mark, which would be at least 10 more home runs if he kept his 2009 inning count intact.

He will still crack the top 60 of course, but he doesn’t stand a chance at being in the top 15 first tier in the next SP list update.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions | Leave a Comment »

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