Posts tagged ‘Lonnie Chisenhall’

Thursday: 07.7.2011

Keeper Building Blocks: Third Base

If you thought things were sparse elsewhere on the infield, wait until you see what third base is offering for potential keeper building blocks.  Before the season started, I saw third base as easily the second-worst position on the diamond behind shortstop.  There has been some nice improvement in the middle tiers of shortstop to the point where you could reasonably make a case that the two have now flip-flopped.

If it weren’t for Jose Bautista qualifying at third base, the position would be in really big trouble.  It is still a troubled wasteland primarily because it started thin and has since been ravaged by injuries.  Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo  Sandoval, Martin Prado, Scott Rolen, David Freese and Placido Polanco have all missed time due to injury this year.  All but Polanco have hit the disabled list, while Polanco is currently day-to-day with back pain that has been troubling him for a month and has no doubt impacted his modest output this year (.274 batting average, a category you draft him to excel in).

Catchers

First Base

Second Base, Addendum

Shortstop

I came up with six potential candidates, though one will take an arm and a leg (literally) to pry away from a leaguemate:

Jose Bautista (TOR, 30) – Yes, this of course is the arm & a leg guy.  He is probably no more than $10 in any league depending on how free agents are acquired and how their contracts work and when you couple that incredible price with the fact that he has been arguably the best player in the game (Matt Kemp’s speed might put him #1), you have a helluva price tag.  Unless it requires several of the keepers you were planning on for 2012, it might not be a bad idea to pay the hefty price to get Bautista.  It would take a unique set of circumstances to acquire him from a leaguemate, but given how cheap he should be in keeper leagues, you have to take a shot.

Pablo Sandoval (SF, 24) – The Kung Fu Panda is back after a rough season in 2010 and if it weren’t for his missed time on the disabled list, he probably would have made a serious run at the starting third base gig for the NL All-Star team.  He should still be cheap from any initial contract in your league, but if for some reason he was on the open market this March, he is probably still at a fair keeper price given the reaction to his modest output last year (.268/.323/.409 with 13 HR, 63 RBI).  The most games he can play this year is 121 and yet he is still on pace for 21 home runs, not bad considering he hit 25 in 153 back in 2009.

Adrian Beltre (TEX, 32) – He was coming off of a down season in 2009 which caused his value to be depressed even as he headed into Boston last year.  Thus he could be on a nice contract in your league.  This won’t apply to all leagues, but I had to include him just in case.  He will be a bit older, but he’s got great power at a scarce position.  That’s keeper-worthy.

Martin Prado (ATL, 27) – Nothing against Prado, but when he is our fourth potential keeper at third base, you know it is thin.  He has definite value, but it is tied to his batting average which can suffer in a year due to luck.  I just think we might have the next Placido Polanco on our hands, which isn’t bad, but hardly a great building block.  Remember, Polanco had back-to-back double digit home run seasons at 27 & 28 years old sandwiched by seasons of nine at 26 and 29.

Mike Moustakas (KC, 22) – In a dynasty league, he probably moves up a spot or two on this list, but even when building a keeper list during a lost season, I’m still gunning to win the very next season so I have him down here because there is no certainty he will be all that fantasy relevant in his second season.  We saw ups & downs in his minor league career and I suspect we will see the same as a big leaguer so at 23 next year, we might see more growing pains than fantasy-worthy production.  But like I said, dynasty leaguers who can keep him forever might want to invest in him over a Beltre or Prado.

Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE, 22) – Even though he will be the same age as Mous next year, I think he will be more fantasy relevant, but his ceiling isn’t as high.  He doesn’t profile to have game-changing power and of course there is still the fact that he cannot hit lefties worth a lick.  He is someone to look at for AL-Only and deep mixed league players.  I don’t think he is someone you want to invest in as a keeper for 10 & 12-team mixed leagues right now.

I don’t think I forgot any deserving candidates, but please feel free to let me know if you think I have made any egregious omissions.

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Tuesday: 06.14.2011

The Next Wave: 21 (and a half) AAA Hitting Prospects

The turning of the calendar to June brings about the crossing of the nebulous Super 2 deadline that often keeps big time minor league prospects down a little longer than their talent necessitates.  As such we have seen an influx of prospects recently including names like Mike Moustakas, Anthony Rizzo, Dee Gordon and Jemile Weeks.  They join a host of blue chip youngsters already up including but not limited to Moustakas teammates Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy as well as Gordon teammate Rubby de la Rosa.

Though several highly anticipated players are up, “prospect season” is really just getting going and there are a lot of potentially high-impact players who could be called up in the coming weeks to help plug the holes of a fantasy team near you.  Depending on league format and roster size, you may want to roster some of these guys, trade for them or merely put them on a watch list and hope to anticipate their call-up just right to acquire them at the lowest price possible.  Some of them are further away, but you can never predict injuries so it is best to know these names for the summer.

First off, we will look at AAA hitters which offers 21 (and a half) names to keep an eye on.

Collin Cowgill (ARI, OF) – A mid-tier prospect within the D’Backs organization pegged as a 4th OF-type, Cowgill is embarrassing pitchers during his first tour of AAA.  He has been strong all year, but it is his white-hot start in June that is garnering attention: .524/.565/.857 w/8 XBH, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB and 13 R in 42 AB at AAA-Reno.  He may well be a product of the environment, but a .372 AVG and 1.053 OPS with 19 SB (in 21 tries) are impressive anywhere.

Honorable Mention goes to teammate in Reno, Wily Mo Pena.  He’s the “half” as he is no longer a prospect at 29, but he is a longtime favorite of mine and his .341 AVG, 1.106 OPS and 18 HR could earn a trip back to majors soon so I wanted to include him.  Gerardo Parra is playing some great D in left, but they might trade the D for a bat like that.

Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE, 3B) – Cord Phelps was called up to platoon with Orlando Cabrera, who can’t hit righties at this point and it is time to do the same with Chis and Jack Hannahan.  Unlike Phelps, Chisenhall has a sharp platoon that marries perfectly with Hannahan’s.  Chisenhall’s inability to hit southpaws shouldn’t keep him in the minors when a major league solution is so readily available, especially as Cleveland’s grasp on the division continues to rapidly slip away.

Jason Kipnis (CLE, 2B) – Another strong Indians prospects who continues to impress at every stop along the minor league trail.  His .830 OPS in 58 AAA games is his lowest mark at any level in three years a professional.  While it is great that the Indians are flush with major league ready prospects, it is unfortunate that none of them are on the pitching side which was always going to be the downfall of this hot start.

Yonder Alonso (CIN, LF) – I still think a trade is the best move for him as I don’t see how he deserves a shot in Cincinnati’s leftfield as an unproven prospect when Chris Heisey is already performing well above average and should be handed the job regularly.  All the talk of how mangled Cincy’s leftfield is boggles my mind as Heisey should play against righties and Jonny Gomes against lefties.  Problem solved.

Alonso, meanwhile, should be traded to shore up other areas on the team (pitching).  If he is dealt, there is little doubt that the trading team would bring him up immediately.  He has proven all he can in AAA with an .853 OPS in 159 games.

Zack Cozart (CIN, SS) – I’m not sure there is a level of excellence with the glove that Paul Janish could realistically reach, even at shortstop, to merit putting his bat in the lineup on most nights.  He has a 44 OPS+.  44!!!  Not only that, but Cozart has a strong glove so it’s not even a major hit.  He’s in the midst of his best season as a pro (.328 AVG, .870 OPS) and seemingly cannot be worse than Janish at this dish so a call has to be imminent, right?

Juan Francisco (CIN, 3B) – He’s not really a prospect at this point because he has been up each of the last three seasons including for nine games already this year, but all three samples are tiny (a high of 55 AB) so we haven’t really seen what he can do.  He has big time power potential, but he’s also very impatient and with Scott Rolen healthy, lacks a place to play.

Devin Mesoraco (CIN, C) – He’s also blocked at the big league level, but it’s by a 35 and 30 year old tandem so neither is the long-term solution and perhaps a trade of one could be imminent (to San Francisco perhaps?) opening the door to usher in the Mesoraco era slowly.  His prospect status was dimming before an explosive 2010 season that landed him 64th on Baseball America’s Top 100 list this preseason.  He has backed it up with a .330/.412/.569 line with 8 HR and 30 XBH (out of 65 total) in 197 at-bats.  Needs a trade (of one of the incumbents) or an injury, so he’s more of a wait-&-see unless you have a minor league roster in your league.

Clint Robinson (KC, DH) – The biggest problem with Robinson is right there next to this team in the those parentheses back there.  He’s already a DH.  That is a bit of a problem on just about any team, but apart from being locked behind David Ortiz on Boston or whichever of the two catchers in Detroit is DH’ing, he is on the worst possible team to be a DH-only player.  His former AAA teammate, Eric Hosmer, has gone up and grabbed the first base job in KC, but that squeezed incumbent Billy Butler to DH leaving nowhere for last year’s Texas League Triple Crown winner to go.

He isn’t quite winning the PCL Triple Crown, but his .349 batting average, 17 home runs and 50 RBIs are all near the top of all three categories.  He has maintained a steady 17-18% strikeout rate in his five years as a pro and he has improved BB/K each (save a dip to .44 in 2009) year from 0.45 in his first year to 0.79 this year.  Despite his giant season last year and a big start to this year, he is still seen as a middling prospect at best.

The best comp I can think of based on the reports I have read is a Jack Cust-type trading some of the power and walk rate of Cust for more batting average and fewer strikeouts all the while struggling to even get major league playing time.  I know full-well you can’t overrate minor league numbers, but damn his are good.  His best bet at this point is a trade out of organization, but somewhere in the American League so he doesn’t have to play the field.  (Pretty sure I just wrote the longest write up on the lowest ceiling of all the guys listed.)

Trayvon Robinson (LAD, OF) – Robinson is a perfect example of why you have to be careful with Pacific Coast League numbers.  He has already far exceeded his 2010 home run total of nine by clubbing 13 in the very hitter-friendly confines of Albuquerque.  He has a particularly odd split so far this year hitting to a 1.224 OPS in day games, but just .791 at night.  His speed is the more bankable asset in his arsenal as the power exists, but at a more modest level than his .538 SLG so far this year suggests.  His patience seems to have regressed significantly this year, too.  After a four year rise up to 0.58 BB/K last year (up from 0.27 in 2007), he’s back down to 0.26 this year.

Mat Gamel (MIL, OF) – The former 34th ranked prospect (2009) has become something of an afterthought having failed to top 96 games played in each of the past two years, but still just 25 he remains a huge power threat with an excellent hit tool (.303/.374/.522 w/11 HR in 228 AB this year).  The problem is that he might be a 25-year old DH.  Thought to be a Ryan Braun-lite based on his prodigious power and lack of defensive ability, the places where he could be hidden on the diamond are already taken, including one spot by Braun.  Thus his big league future with the Brewers remains cloudy.  Keep him on your radar.

Caleb Gindl (MIL, OF) – I liked what I saw out of him in the Arizona Fall League, although the three game sample was tiny, but the smallish (5’9”) Gindl packs a punch, especially against righties (.838 OPS; .917 v. RHP including all 6 of his HR).  He could feasibly play any of the three OF positions without embarrassing himself, but there isn’t a natural opening anywhere on the big league team with two big bats at the corners and Carlos Gomez’s exemplary glove essentially being his only value-add.  At 23, there is no rush so he might not get a shot until late this summer, if at all in ’11.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis (NYM, OF) – Probably more of a 4th OF long-term, Nieuwenhuis could get a shot sooner than later as he performs well at AAA (.298/.403/.505; best season as a pro so far) and Jason Bay struggles to hit his weight (.208 v. 210 lbs.).  Lucas Duda was first in line as he already has MLB experience and he’s up now, but if he doesn’t better his .611 OPS in 108 career AB, Nieuwenhuis should get a look.  He does a little of everything a la someone like Chris Denorfia.

Jesus Montero (NYY, C) – He’s gotten worse month-to-month in his second tour of AAA and some have suggested that perhaps he is bored a la Hanley Ramirez back in 2005 during his second go-round in AA in the Boston system.  Montero is hitting a decent .289, but there has been no patience and remarkably underwhelming power.  I would still keep a close eye on him because of the Hanley note.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he got the call to catch a bit and/or DH and then ended up catching fire right away.

Michael Taylor (OAK, OF) – Remember him?  The former top 30 prospect took himself off the radar with a rough 2010 season, his first full one in AAA.  Injuries exacerbated things, but he just couldn’t get right at the plate.  He missed April, but he’s back now and having a bit of a resurgence with a .297/.360/.440 line in 91 AB so far.  It wouldn’t take much for him to be an improvement over some of the outfield bats in Oakland so if he sustains himself, he could be up shortly after the All-Star break.

Adrian Cardenas (OAK, IF/OF) – The long-time infielder has become more an outfielder/DH-type in 2011 which definitely cuts into his value, but he is having his best season with the bat and that is all Oakland really needs to hear to be interested.  Plus with Jemile Weeks finally called up and Scott Sizemore traded over from Detroit, second and third base might finally have solutions that can push .700 OPS (which would be light years ahead of Mark Ellis’ .533 and Kevin Kouzmanoff .615 marks).  Cardenas has always been a .300ish hitter with a great batting eye and that has continued this year with a .329 average and 25 walks against just 20 strikeouts.  Hideki Matusi and David DeJesus are severely underperforming so Cardenas, still just 23 years old, could get a shot.

Dustin Ackley (SEA, 2B) – Ackley hates the month of April.  Not sure if there was some awful girl named April that wrong him or what, but he has hit .182 in 170 at-bats during April of his first two professional seasons.  In all other months, he is hitting a combined .305 in 594 at-bats.  I saw Ackley during Arizona Fall League in November and I was thoroughly impressed with his awesomeness, but a lot of outlets don’t see him as a high-impact hitter.

I’m not a professional scout and it was a small sample, but he looked great.  He could hit to all fields, had enough pop (mid-teens home run power, but a crapton of doubles) and of course absurd on-base percentage thanks to a tremendous eye.  I don’t care how good Jack Wilson’s defense is, he has a .528 OPS and Ackley should be playing second base for the Mariners, especially since they are in sorta-contention with their pitching staff.

Alex Liddi (SEA, 3B) – Liddi is a good example of why you can’t also focus solely on the numbers of a minor leaguer.  Context is so important.  He’s a 22-year old at AAA, which isn’t Jesus Montero-young, but still pretty young and he is holding his own.  He is having his best power season since his 2009 Cal League MVP, but his 34% strikeout rate is a career-high and would be problematic at the big league level.  He is an AL-Only pickup initially if he gets the call, but he has significant potential.  They did make a significant investment in Chone Figgins and it is hard to replace him because of the contract, but at some point a team cannot eat a .190 average and .494 OPS especially if you want to be a contender.

Thomas Neal (SF, OF) – It is merely an alphabetical coincidence that these last five players are all in offensively-starved organizations and Neal could benefit from the Brandon Belt injury.  Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand aren’t impressing at all with the bat in left and the former is terrible with the glove.  Neal has shown power before, but it went from home run to doubles power last year and has been the same this year.  He isn’t a *special* prospect, but that doesn’t mean he can’t have plenty of value as an everyday player who can give something across the board.  Think Martin Prado from last year (.307, 15 HR, 5 SB, R & RBI depending on lineup spot) with a lower batting average until he establishes himself at the bigs.

Desmond Jennings (TB, OF) – OK, Tampa Bay, enough with Sam Fuld.  It was a fun 15 minutes, but now it is time to get your best hitting prospect on the field and contributing to your lineup.  Jennings languished a bit last year in his first AAA stint dealing with nagging injuries for most of the year, but this is another example of not basing everything purely on the numbers because despite a .756 OPS Jennings was still doing a lot of stuff well last year.

He looks great so far in 2011 already popping three times as many home runs (9) as all of last year with a healthy wrist, getting on base a ton and displaying his absurd elite-level speed.  His strikeouts have ticked up to a career high 18%, but his walk rate has matched his career mark of 11%.  He is likely owned in most leagues with a  bench, but on the off-chance that he isn’t go get him now.

Brett Lawrie (TOR, 2B/3B) – Similar to Belt in San Francisco, Lawrie had fantasy owners salivating at the possibilities of what he could do at the major league level and then he got hit in the hand with a pitch.  Now Belt was already in the majors, but Lawrie was set to come up within the next day or two when it happened.  Originally they thought he would avoid the disabled list, but he hit the minor league DL just over a week ago.  He should come to the majors almost immediately after his activation and then everyone can resume drooling.

I am cautiously optimistic about his potential, as he delivers across the board talent with a .354 batting average, 15 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  But it was in the remarkably hitter-friendly environment of Las Vegas and the PCL and then of course he is still just 21 years old.  He isn’t a guarantee to come up and Ryan Braun the big leagues.  So temper your expectations and the price you are willing to pay to roster him.  Remember, everyone went nuts over Jason Heyward (with good reason as he appears to be a star in the making), but he needed 142 games to hit 18 home runs and steal 11 bases and no one had Lawrie as a better prospect.

Want a better example?  Try Lawrie’s current teammate in Vegas Travis Snider.  In 2009, he hit .337 with 14 home runs in 48 games (Lawrie’s numbers have come in 52 games) before coming up to the majors to hit .241 with nine home runs in 77 games.  That is why I cannot stress enough that you need to temper expectations with the shiny new toy and also not do something stupid like cut a perfectly productive player to roster Lawrie or any of these other prospects.  If you have a bad player or an open spot, then by all means, but don’t hurt your team by getting rid of a sure (or at least more sure) thing just for the small chance at something greater.  (OK, this was longer than the Clint Robinson capsule.)

Matt Antonelli (WAS, IF) – Remember him?  This one-time top 50 prospect started with San Diego making his major league debut at 23 years old back in 2008.  Coming into 2008 he was seen as a 5-star prospect by Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein thanks to a great 2007 (.307/.404/.491), but that year the wheels came off as he posted a .657 OPS at AAA before playing just 60 games over the next two years missing all but one last year thanks in large part to a hand injury.

Now 26, he has battled back and he has been raking in his first 22 games at AAA in the Washington organization.  He has a .358/.422/.531 line with two home runs (eight extra base hits in all), two stolen bases, six runs scored and seven driven in.  His strong batting eye appears to be intact as he has drawn nine walks against 12 strikeouts.  The only downside in this comeback story is that the three infield positions he plays are all blocked by cornerstone pieces of the future in Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa.  The latter two are struggling a bit in various areas of their game, but at 25 and 24 years old, respectively, they are going to be given a chance as the Nats aren’t going anywhere.

In that 2008 write-up of Antonelli, Goldstein mentioned he was going to get reps in the outfield that Spring Training mostly to see if that would be a fit for the future.  Well it’s the future and that could be avenue to explore to get his bat in the lineup if he reaches the big leagues in the near future.  Of course Laynce Nix is raking (against righties) and Jayson Werth isn’t going anywhere so maybe a trade is truly the best chance.

Tuesday: 05.24.2011

Fixing the Contenders – American League

As we near Memorial Day (less than a week away) and turn the calendar to June, we usually see the MLB standings start to stratify a bit with the contenders separating themselves from the rest of the pack.  That may not happen in the 2011 season, at least not for a while.  Right now there are just three teams who are 10+ games out two of which are the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox, a pair of teams many still refuse to bury given the uncertainty of the Cleveland Indians and the expectations on those two teams coming into the season.

The other is the Houston Astros who were out of it before the season started.  Only three other teams are more than five games away from .500 (Padres, Dodgers and Cubs) so there could be a dearth of sellers as trading season in the MLB heats up.  Nobody really thought Seattle was going to be much of anything this year, but alas their rotation is running five deep headlined by two aces (Felix Hernandez & Michael Pineda; Erik Bedard, Jason Vargas & Doug Fister round out an impressive rotation) meanwhile Jamey Wright, David Pauley and Aaron Laffey have been nails out of the pen masking the fact that they still have a completely horrible offense.  The pitching has them just one game below .500 and a game and a half out of the division lead.

Similarly, expected bottom-feeders Arizona (23-23), Pittsburgh (22-24), Kansas City (22-24) and Baltimore (21-24) continue to linger.  While the league lacks a truly great team, there are still a group of contenders to be found within the 30, teams that should be focusing their attention on 2011 and doing what they can, whether internally or through trade, to get those October playoff tickets printed as soon as possible.

Today, I will go through the contenders who are ripe for a trade and identify the potential move(s) they could make.  I have seven teams on the list.  There are eight other contenders who I didn’t feel needed to make a significant trade because they are either getting some significant pieces back from injury and/or have the available talent in their minor leagues to fill their holes.  Or, at least in one case, I simply didn’t see a move to be made.  That doesn’t mean that it is a perfect team, just that their path to improvement is either a minor trade or sticking with what they have already.

Cleveland Indians (30-15)

Team Needs: 3B, SP, RP

Let’s start with the league’s best team record-wise.  Wow, that reads weird when in reference to the 2011 Cleveland Indians, but you can’t deny the fact that they have the best record in the baseball after 45 games.  If this team stays as is, I can’t see them holding on for 162.  I just don’t buy in the pitching outside of Justin Masterson, and he isn’t without his flaws (lefties still destroy him).  I think Masterson can be a solid pitcher, but their “best” pitcher to date, Josh Tomlin, will not hold up at all, in my opinion.  The 1.2 HR/9 will soon bite back in a big way and the 4.5 K/9 is just too low for this kind of success.

Jack Hannahan’s hot start (hitting .284 w/.837 OPS on May 3rd) has bought Lonnie Chisenhall some time to try and iron out his issues against southpaws (.208 in 48 AB), but now Hannahan has returned to Hannahandom (.238, .691) and it is time to give Chisenhall a shot.  It actually works out where they wouldn’t have to throw him in the fire right away against lefties as Hannahan is actually crushing them with a .387 average and 1.135 OPS in 31 at-bats.  They could run a straight platoon and improve their lineup.  Currently rated 4th or better in runs, average, on-base and slugging, the Indians lineup is performing beautifully to date, but you can never have too much offense.

To fix their starting pitching, I think they need to focus on someone who can miss some bats. With Alex White and his team-best 7.8 K/9 headed to the disabled list for up to three months with a finger injury, Masterson is the leader with a 6.7 K/9.  That is barely above the AL average of 6.5 among starters, so they should call up the Astros and inquire about a trade for an arm.

TRADE: Prospects Joe Gardner and Zack Putnam to the Houston Astros for Wandy Rodriguez – A pair of upper minors arms who ranked 9th and 17th in the org. list from Baseball America for the 32-year old lefty.  With two years left on his contract plus a 2014 option, Wandy won’t come cheap, but given his age the Astros should be open to trading him as he won’t be a part of their next great team.  Their minor league system is disgustingly low on talent so it’s time to start replenishing in earnest via trade.

They might still need to shore up the bullpen a little bit, too.  But that may be handled internally with the recent call up of Josh Judy, who struck out 20 in 17 innings at AAA prior to his call up.  Elsewhere, Nick Hagadone, their #10 prospect, has recently hit AAA after striking out 24 in 23 innings at AA and he could be there to shore up the relief corps early in the summer.

Moves:

  1. 3B – Promote Chisenhall up to platoon w/Hannahan
  2. SP – Trade Gardner & Putnam for Rodriguez, W
  3. RP – Judy recently called up; Hagadone en route

New York Yankees (25-21)

Team Need: SP

The Yankees are having the exact issue that everyone thought they would back in Spring Training with C.C. Sabathia as their top starter and a giant question mark after that.  Bartolo Colon has been a godsend with a strong ERA (3.77) and WHIP (1.20) and great skills (8.8 K/9, 3.7 K/BB) backing the rates up, but how long will it last for the 37 year old?  A.J. Burnett and Ivan Nova have been up and down while Freddy Garcia, filling in for Phil Hughes, has been better (3.12 ERA) than his skills suggest as a 34-year old journeyman.

There is nothing at the AAA level that stands to be any better than what they have and Manny Banuelos in AA has gone more than five innings just once in his eight starts so he isn’t the savior that fans want him to be after seeing him excel in Spring Training.  That leaves the trade markets.  And while delusional fans might think Felix Hernandez is available, he’s not.  But they should venture out for a trade.

TRADE: Prospect Adam Warren to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Hiroki Kuroda – The 36-year old veteran is a free agent after this year so despite how well he has pitched since coming over to the States in 2008, he won’t net the Dodgers an overwhelming return of prospects.  That said, Warren was just outside of the top 10 on org. lists and the Yankees system is a deep one so that’s not chopped liver.  He has struggled with his control at AAA (27 K, 24 BB in 45 IP), but he is still just 23 years old and the Yankees have moved him aggressively (just 54 IP in AA).

The Dodgers system has a crap-ton of pitching and while you can never have too much, they might opt for a bat instead and I could see a toolsy, raw bat like Melky Mesa being dealt for Kuroda.  Mesa has 16 extra-base hits out of just 30 (.204 avg in 147 AB), seven stolen bases but also caught seven times and 16 walks aiding a solid 83-point AVG-OBP split, but also 50 strikeouts (34% K rate).  The 24-year old has been much better lately (.290/.372/.507 in May) after a horrid April (.129/.209/.256) which may elevate his trade stock a bit, though front offices focus more on pure talent & projectability than stats when it comes to prospects.

The Yankees might need more than one starting pitcher so they could also be in for someone like Jon Garland, Livan Hernandez, Aaron Harang or Francisco Liriano, too.  Again, they have a remarkably deep system so trading for a second level arm like one of the above (can you believe Liriano is now regarded as a second level arm?!) as well as a bigger impact arm would be doable.

Moves:

  1. SP – Trade Warren or Mesa for Kuroda
  2. SP2 – Trade David Adams for Harang

Detroit Tigers (24-23)

Team Need: RP

Relief pitching was supposed to be a strength of the 2011 Tigers after signing super-setup man Joaquin Benoit and pairing him with Jose Valverde at the back end of the bullpen.  The constant stream of power arms drafted and traded for recently was supposed to fill any gaps from starter to Benoit with guys like Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth, specifically.   Al Alburquerque has been a pleasant surprise with a 15.3 K/9 in his 15 innings, but walks have been a problem (11) for the rookie.

Chance Ruffin is doing well in his debut season as a pro, but he is just 22 and in AA, so the chances of him as a savior are slim.  Plus, the bullpen is young enough already.  Charlie Furbush was just called up from AAA and thrown right into the fire on Monday night after a Phil Coke injury in the fourth inning left the Tigers scrambling.  He responded admirably with 3.7 shutout innings striking out three and walking one.

He has been huge strikeout guy as a starter in the minors (9.5 K/9 career, over 10 the last two years) and he has a legitimate shot to keep those kind of rates in short stints out of the pen.  But with no reliever toting a sub-3.00 ERA, the Tigers will need more than one arm to cure those bullpen woes.

Thankfully for the Tigers, relief pitching is usually one of the most plentiful items in the trade market year in and year out.  And oftentimes, it is the cheapest commodity to acquire, too.  The Padres seem like a great trade partner as I count five arms that could (and should) be up for trade ranging from ace closer Heath Bell to the reborn Pat Neshek.

TRADE: Bruce Rondon and a throw in C-rated (or lower) prospect to the San Diego Padres for Mike Adams – Rondon is a 20-year old flamethrowing reliever (14.6 K/9), but control is a big time issue right now (8.6 BB/9).  He is allowing next to nothing when it comes to hits (1.6 H/9), though, so he has a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  Adams is 32 years old and a free agent after this year.  Plus he comes with loads of injury risk having never put together back-to-back full seasons.

As such, I’m not sure the Padres could really ask for too much from a prospective trade partner even given how great he is when he does pitch, especially this year with his otherworldly 10.5 K/BB in 22 innings.  His 8.7 K/9 is pretty good, but it’s the disgusting 0.8 BB/9 that is powering his insane season.

Luke Gregerson is five years younger, but also a free agent after the season.  He might draw a little more in return than Adams, but he hasn’t been the Gregerson from 2009 and 2010 so far this year.  His strikeout rate has seen a precipitous drop from 10.2 to 6.0 and he has become a lot more hittable allowing 10.3 H/9 (after 5.4 last year).

I can’t see the Tigers trading for Bell as the cost would be too much and Valverde isn’t going anywhere while Neshek would be too much of an injury risk having pitched just 34 innings since 2008 including his 12 this year.

Moves:

  1. RP1 – Promoted Furbush
  2. RP2 – Trade Rondon + PTBNL for Adams, M

 

Oakland A’s (22-25)

Team Need: Bats… about nine of them.

I covered the A’s a good bit last week specifically tied to them addressing their need of a bat (or several!) so I won’t do an entire re-hash.  Internally, I think Jemile Weeks should be called up soon because he is healthy for once and hitting really well in AAA while Mark Ellis is not.  Ellis had a stretch where he had multi-hit games in three out of six (10-for-24) and it moved his average up to a blistering .208.  That wouldn’t cut in 1968 much less now (OK, it might cut it in ’68… but it really doesn’t in ’11 even with the down hitting).

If they don’t want to try Weeks out just yet, then they should look to Adrian Cardenas, who continues to hit well having raised his batting average yearly since 2007 up to .357 this year while finally adding some pop, too, with a career high slugging percentage of .478.  He has shown a strong eye at the plate throughout his career as well, especially at the high minors with 136 walks to 150 strikeouts in 306 games at AA and AAA.  One of the two prospects deserves a look to jumpstart their anemic offense if they want to realistically contend this year.  I also think a trade is in order as they match up really well with another team in contention.

TRADE: Andrew Bailey to the Cincinnati Reds for Yonder Alonso – I covered this in great detail in this piece about Bailey a week ago.  Assuming he comes up back healthy and as good as we’ve seen him, this is a great fit for both teams involved.  Alonso doesn’t really have a future in Cincinnati being blocked by Joey Votto, Chris Heisey and Jonny Gomes and the Oakland bullpen is stocked.  Alonso can move directly into Daric Barton’s spot at first or into the outfield which would allow Josh Willingham to take Barton’s place.  Either way, Barton’s vomit-inducing .280 SLG has to get out of the everyday lineup.  They just can’t expect to win with that lack of production at a power position.  Hell, you can’t really take it on at any position, but especially first base.

The A’s could make another move closer to the deadline, but it would hinge on Brandon McCarthy and Tyson Ross coming back from their recent injuries to pitch like they were before getting hurt and recently returned Josh Outman to pick up where he left off in 2009 (which he showed he might do on Monday night with 7 strong innings).  That would give them some rotation depth which they could flip for another bat.

TRADE: McCarthy to the Detroit Tigers for Brennan Boesch – Starting pitching isn’t a primary need for the Tigers, but you really can’t have too much and the back end is tenuous with Phil Coke (who left his last start injured) and Brad Penny, meanwhile their outfield has developed some depth with Casper Wells and Andy Dirks joining the club.  Plus Magglio Ordonez will be back at some point which would give them six outfielders plus Don Kelly for three spots (DH is locked up by Victor Martinez most days).  This one would really be contingent on McCarthy’s health, of course.

Boesch isn’t tearing the cover off of the ball or anything, but David DeJesus has been awful and Boesch has at least shown the capability for some power in his time as a major leaguer.  McCarthy was a million dollar flier for the A’s and netting a 26-year old outfielder with some potential would probably be much more than they truly expected when they took the gamble on the former top prospect pitcher.

Moves:

  1. Bat1 – Trade Bailey for Alonso
  2. Bat2 – Trade McCarthy for Boesch

That covers the American League contenders.   I left out the Rays, Red Sox, Rangers and Angels, all of whom are contenders in my eyes, but don’t have an obvious trade scenario for a high-impact move.  The Rays, Red Sox and Rangers have pretty deep systems to attack needs or can be expected to play better once their current set of 25 begins to meet expectations (Evan Longoria, Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford; Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz returning from injury).

Meanwhile the Angels don’t have a glaring flaw they can attack via the market.  There aren’t any major first basemen available that would be a huge upgrade over Mark Trumbo.  If Vernon Wells performs anything like expected upon his return from the DL, he will help their power woes and they could shore up their pen via trade, but Scott Downs, Rich Thompson and Jordan Walden give them a solid trio and they can probably manufacture one more reliable arm without having to make a move.

Next up, the National League contenders.

Thursday: 03.24.2011

2011 Bold Predictions-Part 2

Continuing on with the AL Central…

Chicago White Sox:

Carlos Quentin hits 44 home runs – He hasn’t quite captured the magic from his 2008 season when he hit 36 home runs in 130 games and missed September of what could have been an MVP campaign.  Since that breakout season, he has continued to display very good power, but injuries have remained a huge issue limiting him to 99 and 131 games in the last two seasons.  So I’m betting on health as much as anything else combined with playing in a great park for home runs.

Edwin Jackson strikes out 200+ batters with a sub-3.50 ERA – White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper has done more with less so I’m excited to see what he can do over a full season with someone as talented as E-Jax.  We saw a glimpse of things to come in his 75-inning sample after the trade from Arizona and I don’t think that was a fluke.  I’m not sure why people are so quick to dismiss his post-trade success, but believe that Daniel Hudson’s (sent to Arizona in the deal) is a slam-dunk precursor of things to come (which is leading to an overvaluing of Hudson, even though I really like him).  Jackson’s slider is 4th-best in baseball from 2008-2010 and it will be the primary weapon in his 2011 strikeout fest.

Cleveland Indians:

Lonnie Chisenhall has 400+ at-bats hitting .290/.370/.430 – He probably should have been given the job for Opening Day, but Jack Hannahan edged Jayson Nix in a placeholder duel for the third base job.  Chisenhall will head to AAA and polish his game up a bit more, but he will be up quickly and I think he takes over the job upon arrival.  There won’t be a ton of power right away and perhaps never, but I think he will lace plenty of singles and doubles while drawing a significant number of walks.

Shin-Soo Choo goes .330-30-30 – After a pair of nearly identical .300-20-20 seasons that have put him on the map as the excellent player that he is, it’s time for Choo to have the career year.  I see him going off with 34 home runs and 31 stolen bases and another .400+ on-base percentage, too.

Detroit Tigers:

Victor Martinez hits .372 – I wrote last week about why I thought Martinez was the top catcher for 2011.  I think the lack of catching should make him not only more durable, but also better.  As such, we could see a special season where this “professional hitter” wins a batting title.

Kansas City Royals:

Alcides Escobar steals 57 bases – His speed did not manifest itself in a full season of at-bats in which he grossly underperformed expectations.  A year older and on a team ready to unleash his speed, Escobar could provide sneaky value at the back end of that shortstop pool with a big time speed season.  He might still only hit .260, but he’s going to run a ton.

Kila Ka’aihue hits 37 home runs – He has shown prodigious power more than once in his nearly 1,000 games at the minor league level and at 27 years old, it is time to give him a legitimate shot at the major league level.  I have seen the Kila Monster multiple times as the AAA Royals affiliate plays against the Round Rock Express, who play minutes from my place.  Granted it was against AAA competition, but I am a believer and he could have a huge season if they stopped jerking him around and just let him get a full season of at-bats.

Minnesota Twins:

Kevin Slowey pitches 170 innings – This is bold for two reasons: 1) because he inexplicably lost out to Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing for a rotation spot on the Twins and 2) because he’s never topped 160 innings in his four major league seasons.  His 170 might not come with the Twins as he is rumored to be on the trade block, but even if he sticks around in the Twin Cities, he will get his shot.  He will finally stay healthy and pay the dividends his skills portend.  A small investment in him now could bring huge returns by season’s end as too many fantasy owners get short-sighted when it comes to these situations.  A little patience in April can make your October much sweeter.

Delmon Young picks up where ’10 left off hitting .325 with 30 home runs – Even after last year, you will still hear some analysts dismissing him as a “terrible player”.  That’s just stupid.  No, he doesn’t draw as many walks as we would all like, but to write him off as quickly as so many have makes no sense.  Especially when most of the people doing so are the condescending stathead snob-types.  I wonder if they ever realize they sound as stupid as they think non-stathead types like Joe Morgan sound when espousing the virtues of RBIs.  OK, a bit of a tangent there.  Longtime Rays fan and friend of mine Jason Collette is decidedly not a Young fan, but he doesn’t across like a douche about it.  It’s the one player we vehemently disagree on.  I think Young can build on his 2010 for a huge 2011.  Go Delmon, go!

Next Up: AL West