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Thursday: 06.9.2011

SP List Update – 40% Mile Marker

As we creep toward the 40% marker in the season (24 teams have played at least 38% of their games, the Yankees are the low mark at 36%), I feel it is time to offer up a revamped starting pitcher list so you can assess your arms with more than half of the season left.  There is still plenty of time to make a move so unless you have a team ravaged by star player injuries, don’t give up.

In the SP Guide, I broke the arms down in five tiers ranging from aces to deep prospects.  For the update, we’re just going 116 arms deep with fantasy-usable guys.  These 116 were broken up into four tiers and the tiers are just a little different than you will remember from the guide.  With the pitching-heavy landscape the way it is, tier three as it was constructed this preseason would be too large so I broke it up into two with the new tier four essentially bumping down the old four & five into five & six.  Is that confusing enough?

Tier 1 is still ace-level guys.

Tier 2 is near-ace-level guys.

Tier 3 is all single & deep mixed league must-start guys.

Tier 4 is matchup guys is most formats except the deeper single leagues.

I will also soon post a “Watch List” of guys who aren’t currently in rotations or even in the majors, but could make an impact during the summer.

Tier 1

There isn’t much change her and that’s on purpose.  This tier is reserved for the truly elite and two-plus months isn’t enough to boost someone up unless they were already toting a rock-solid skills profile and were Tier 2 arms from the preseason.  There were only four changes within this grouping from the preseason: two in, two out.  (Note: I’m not going to comment on everyone in this update, espec. w/the elite guys.)

Roy Halladay (PHI) – Duh.

Felix Hernandez (SEA)

Tim Lincecum (SF)

Cole Hamels (PHI) – I did my best to get y’all on the Hamels Train.  I put him here in the preseason; hope you’re reaping the benefits.

Cliff Lee (PHI) – Oh my jeezorz, his ERA is 3.62!  And because of that he is probably my #1 pitching trade target.  Why?  How about a 5.0 K/BB.  Sure it isn’t last year’s otherworldly 10.3 K/BB mark, but he does have a 10.3 in his profile this year: his K/9.

[T1 Addition] David Price (TB) –I had a little concern about his draft day cost given his tendency for walks, but that hasn’t been a problem at all this year (down from 3.4 to 1.4 BB/9) leading to a 5.9 K/BB.  He reversed his ERA/FIP trend whereby his FIP is now 2.71 (3.42 last year) and his ERA is 3.35 (2.72 last year).  Invest.

Dan Haren (LAA)

Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

Justin Verlander (DET)

Tommy Hanson (ATL)

Jon Lester (BOS) – He moved down a bit within the tier, but nothing in his skill set has me particularly worried.  The home runs are more a product of a high HR/FB than anything else.  The bump down is more of a reward to the others than a disparagement of Lester.

[T1 Addition] James Shields (TB) – The second T1 addition is another Ray.  His results are finally starting to match his elite skills.  His 83% LOB% rate will dwindle, but there is a strong chance that his 14% HR/FB will as well thus any ERA deterioration should not be too drastic.  This is why we draft skills and not previous season ERAs.

Jered Weaver (LAA) – His ERA is 3.29 since posting a 0.99 in six sparkling April starts.  The former should be the expectation going forward with anything better being a bonus.

Matt Cain (SF)

CC Sabathia (NYY) – The strikeout rate continues a three-year decline, but a walk rate decline in concert has left the K/BB rate intact.  He’s always been good at limiting home runs, but his 0.4 HR/9 so far this year is inflated by a 4.4% HR/FB so I wouldn’t bet on a continuation.  Still a bankable stud, but toward the bottom of that class.

T1 Roundup: Price, Shields added; J.Johnson, Carpenter dropped

 —

Tier 2

Plenty of change here.  Most of the movers in and out of this tier have shown significant skills growth or deterioration that isn’t completely out of left field thus a move could reasonably be made after just 40% of the season.

Ricky Romero (TOR)

Shaun Marcum (MIL) – The reverse split from last year seems to have been an anomaly two months into this season allowing him to go from good to great in his debut NL season.

Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Caused a panic for some back in April, but skills are back in check over his last six starts.  Expect him to keep chiseling away at that 3.72 ERA over the summer.

Zack Greinke (MIL) – The career-best strikeout and walk rates may not hold, but the 62% LOB% definitely will not hold meaning his 4.83 ERA will improve dramatically.

 [T2 Addition] Chris Carpenter (STL) – He was squeezed out of Tier 1 because the massive amount of hits allowed is at least partially due to factors beyond his control: the defense, but the skills remain very strong so he is still a strong Tier 2 and the buying window is rapidly closing if it hasn’t already.

Ricky Nolasco (FLO) – Are we going to have another season where his elite skills don’t yield equivalent results?  How does he give up 15 hits to the Dodgers??  I still love the talent enough to bet on him.

Ian Kennedy (ARI)

Daniel Hudson (ARI)

[T2 Addition] Josh Johnson (FLO) – Dropped from Tier 1 because injury concerns hang overhead and threaten his value.  This ranking is still a bet on Johnson, to be honest.

Chad Billingsley (LAD)

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – He drops within the tier, but it was laughable to see him getting dropped in leagues throughout May.

Mat Latos (SD)

Matt Garza (CHC) – The stuff is still ahead of the results, but he’s been punished by ugly .364 BABIP and 63% LOB% rates, too.  I was worried about his flyball ways in Wrigley, but a drastic change from 36% to 50% groundballs has been paired with a miniscule 5% HR/FB to avoid gopheritis issues thus far.  Regression to his HR/FB rate will almost certainly be mitigated by BABIP and LOB improvements which could make him an excellent second half bet.

 [T2 Addition] Jaime Garcia (STL) – For some reason this Cardinals groundballer hasn’t been bitten by the drop in defensive quality like Carpenter.  That doesn’t mean it won’t happen at some point, but skills improvement has driven his big start.  If it weren’t for an 11-run thrashing in 3.3 innings at the end of May, he’d be a strong contender for NL starter at the All-Star Game.

[T2 Addition] Josh Beckett (BOS) – All the bad luck suffered in 2010 has come back to him in the first two-plus months of 2011.  Skills remain strong, but not 2.01 ERA strong.   

[T2 Addition] Anibal Sanchez (FLO)

[T2 Addition] Jhoulys Chacin (COL) – Traded some Ks for a ton of groundballs (from 47% to 59%) and has become one of the more underrated arms in the game.

[T2 Addition] CJ Wilson (TEX) – Cut more than a walk off of his rate so far while adding some strikeouts.  His skills now match the 3.35 ERA he posted in 2010.

[T2 Addition] Trevor Cahill (OAK) – He has added strikeouts, but also walks.  His skills still say his ERA should be nearly a run higher than it is right now.  Last year he managed to avoid regression, be careful if you bet on a repeat going forward.

[T2 Addition] Gio Gonzalez (OAK)

Max Scherzer (DET) – His skills are intact when compared to last year’s.  We have seen him go on these skids before, hopefully this one doesn’t require a trip to Toledo.  Stay the course.

Hiroki Kuroda (LAD)

Gavin Floyd (CHW)

T2 Roundup: Carpenter, J.Johnson, Garcia, Becketter, Sanchez, Chacin, Wilson, Cahill, Gonzalez added; Oswalt, B.Anderson, Lewis, Lilly, Dempster, Danks, Baker, Myers, Liriano dropped

  —

Tier 3

The T3 from the preseason was 78 players deep and now this T3/T4 breakup is 79 deep.  Like I said, I basically just split the two as there is a new pitching landscape that we are dealing with now.

Michael Pineda (SEA) – The skills say he is no doubt legit, but he has also had luck on his side, too.  That combined with the dreaded “second time around the league” and the threat of an innings cap later in the year bump him down a little lower than most probably would’ve expected to see him.

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS)

Brandon Morrow (TOR) – Filthy stuff remains, but the rest of his skills profile is out of whack.  I’ll bet on the Ks and near-3.0 K/BB rate yielding better than a 4.50 ERA the rest of the way.

Roy Oswalt (PHI) – He has lost nearly three strikeouts per game.  His 7% rise in groundball rate (to 53%) isn’t enough to alleviate fears of those lost Ks.  Plus in innings cap leagues, it is tough to trot out 5.3 K/9 for 170+ innings.

Ted Lilly (LAD) – Ks have dipped a bit, but BBs have come down in concert meaning the ERA should trickle down soon as well.

John Danks (CHW)

Wandy Rodriguez (HOU)

Scott Baker (MIN) – Home runs are a bit higher than usual for Baker as are his walks, if both regress toward the mean his 3.86 ERA should see some worthwhile improvement.

Erik Bedard (SEA) – It’s never been about talent, only health.

Brian Matusz (BAL) – Only two starts so far this year, but I’m sold on the talent.

Ryan Dempster (CHC) – Skills are intact from last year, but an ERA 2 runs higher?  That’s coming down.

Madison Bumgarner (SF)

Justin Masterson (CLE) – He was my favorite Indians pitcher before the season and remains so now.

Jair Jurrjens (ATL) – Count me as a non-believer in his 1.75 ERA.  The skills just don’t support it.  Sell now.

Bartolo Colon (NYY) – Durability is my only concern.  Honestly, if he was 32, he’d be in Tier 2 with these skills.  You may want to sell just to avoid the unknown.

Tim Stauffer (SD)

Bud Norris (HOU) – Walks were down nicely in the first month, but have since bumped back up to four.  The Ks remain intriguing enough to roster what amounts to a below average ERA at this point (yes, a 3.67 ERA yields a 99 ERA+).

Chris Narveson (MIL) – Is that you, Dave Bush?  Needs to learn how to work with runners on (66% LOB%) and the ERA will plummet.

Edwin Jackson (CHW) – Absurdly high BABIP is really hurting him at this point.  The skills are exactly in line with last year.  Second half surge is in order.

Jeremy Hellickson (TB) – The ERA and WHIP match the lofty expectations, but the skills sure don’t meaning the regression could hit hard unless his skills jump back toward his 2010 levels.  Keeper leagues hold strong, re-drafters sell.

Johnny Cueto (CIN) – Ks have slipped yearly since his rookie season and while the groundball rate has risen from 42% to 53%, I’m certain the 2.27 ERA can’t hold barring major changes.

Clay Buchholz (BOS)

Jonathan Sanchez (SF)

James McDonald (PIT)

Colby Lewis (TEX) – Holy home run, Batman!  His 2.0 HR/9 should decline, but you know how it can get in Arlington during the summer.  Plus the strikeouts haven’t held from last year.  Tread lightly.

Alexei Ogando (TEX) – He may well pitch a full season without issue, but it won’t be at a 2.10 ERA.  The skills control is elite (2.0 BB/9), but other than that it’s been a lot of favorable circumstance (.210 BABIP, 88% LOB).

Kyle Lohse (STL)

Tim Hudson (ATL)

Rick Porcello (DET)

Jonathon Niese (NYM)

Ryan Vogelsong (SF) – Ks were slipping throughout May, but then got seven against Colorado in first June start.  Skills support success, but not a 1.68 ERA.

Charlie Morton (PIT) – Disgustingly elite groundball rate can sustain success, but probably not this much. And while it can also cover low strikeout rate, that doesn’t do innings-cap fantasy leaguers much good.

Aaron Harang (SD)

Derek Lowe (ATL) – K’d 5+ six times in first nine starts, just once in last five.

Dillon Gee (NYM) – Drastic home/road ERA splits, yet strikes out 1.3 more batters per game on the road.

Doug Fister (SEA) – Not just a Safeco product so far this year.

Chris Capuano (NYM)

Randy Wolf (MIL)

Jake Arrieta (BAL) – Could have a big second half a la teammate Matusz last year.

Jeff Karstens (PIT)

Jason Hammel (COL)

  —

Tier 4

For mixed leagues these are the kind of guys you can stream with good matchups and who are at least one skill away from being full-time options.  These guys are owned in just about every AL/NL only league.

Chris Volstad (FLO) – A lot of skills improvement early on being hidden by disastrous 16% HR/FB rate.  Monitor.

Edinson Volquez (CIN) – A strikeout an inning guys should be on a roster so if you have a reserve spot, he’s worth holding to see if the control improves over the summer.

Philip Humber (CHW) –This is not a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher barring a skills change.

Ervin Santana (LAA)

Derek Holland (TEX) – Remember, he is still just 24 so he is still growing.  This is his first season as a full-time starter.

Zach Britton (BAL) – There will be ups and downs all summer.

Jeremy Guthrie (BAL)

Brett Myers (HOU)

AJ Burnett (NYY)

Brian Duensing (MIN) – Knew he’d regress from last year, but skills have held better than I thought so the 4.73 ERA should come down.

Randy Wells (CHC)

Rubby de la Rosa (LAD) – I really like this kid.

Travis Wood (CIN)

Carlos Carrasco (CLE)

Mike Leake (CIN)

Paul Maholm (PIT)

Jason Vargas (SEA)

Josh Tomlin (CLE) – Regression Monster go NOM-NOM-NOM!  Last 3 starts: 18 IP, 16 ER.  Great control, but little else.

Carlos Zambrano (CHC)

Francisco Liriano (MIN) – Fantasy Russian Roulette.

Zach Duke (ARI)

Danny Duffy (KC) – Been crushed just once, I think he could have a nice summer.  Watch him carefully.

Fausto Carmona (CLE)

Nick Blackburn (MIN) – I just don’t get it… this guy has an endless supply of smoke & mirrors.

Jeff Francis (KC)

Phil Coke (DET)

Brad Penny (DET)

Kevin Correia (PIT) – 6th in the NL for Starting Pitcher Run Support, but in fairness, also 8-of-14 quality starts and has allowed 2 or fewer in all eight.

Joel Pineiro (LAA) – If he can get back to his career 5.5 K/9, he is a lot more usable.

Wade Davis (TB)

Josh Outman (OAK)

Tom Gorzelanny (WAS)

Matt Harrison (TEX)

Juan Nicasio (COL)

Javier Vazquez (FLO) – Strikeout an inning the last five starts, but two 6 ER outings.  Tough to figure out right now, but I’d still monitor.

Carl Pavano (MIN) – Sub-4.0 K rate… innings-cap league or not, that’s tough to roster for more than a matchup here & there.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 06.7.2011

ESPN Franchise Draft: Just Missed

Last week, I revealed my top 30 picks if I were building an MLB Franchise from scratch.  The hardest ones for me were Harper and Trout.  As minor leaguers, there is just so much risk tied to them and to start a franchise with them is really tough thing to do, but having seen Harper and having read so much about Trout, I feel like they are as close to sure things as prospects can get.

I want to do this exercise again in the offseason and see how things shift & change.  I also wanted to share those who hit the cutting room floor as it were.  I did a lot of shifting up and down throughout the process to the point that I even did some while I was doing the write ups.  It’s a tough exercise, but tons of fun for sure.

Here are 10 guys who just missed:

Matt Kemp (CF) – This one was really hard for me as I’ve been a Kemp fan for years.  If he continues to have a great season, it will be almost impossible to leave him off when I run through this again.

Cole Hamels (SP) – He doesn’t get the love he deserves as far as I am concerned.  Even though he didn’t make my top 30, I still have him as the 6th-best starting pitcher in baseball with this ranking.  He’s great and continues to improve.  I get that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee overshadow him a bit this year, but I still don’t get how Eric Karabell doesn’t see him as an ace.  Teams can have more than one ace.  Philly just happens to have three and maybe four depending on your definition.

Brian McCann (C) – A remarkably consistent backstop with a great bat.  If the two young catchers, Posey & Santana, hadn’t emerged in the last year, McCann was a shoo-in for this list.

Brandon Phillips (2B) – At 30, he’s a bit older for a franchise starter, but a middle of the order bat and brilliant glove at second base make this late bloomer someone to consider.

Clayton Kershaw (SP) – I had him in, took him out, put him back in and eventually ended up with him just out.  It is more the depth of high quality arms in the big leagues than it is anything against Kershaw.  There’s a good chance we haven’t seen anywhere near his best work yet which is scary… for the rest of the NL West.

Drew Stubbs (CF) – What he lacks in his bat right now, he makes up for it with dynamic defense and stellar base-running. Still, that’s not enough to earn him the nod over the likes of Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez, my top two CFs.

Dustin Pedroia (2B) – Not quite himself yet this year, but I’m not forgetting him because of 57 mediocre games.  He didn’t make the cut because of better options ahead of him, not necessarily anything within his profile.

David Wright (3B) – If I’m not going to bury Pedroia over 57 games, there’s no way I can ditch Wright after 39.  I will reserve judgment for when he’s fully healthy.  For now, I’m betting on the track record and that says he’s a top 40 player at a very thin position.

Matt Holliday (LF) – Scoff at the age of 31 for a franchise foundation, but how do you ignore this bat?  He is simply one of the best middle-of-the-order bats in baseball.  If you started a franchise with him, you’d lean toward winning right away instead of youth and prospects, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.  Especially since there would still be plenty of talent to balance your approach if the entire pool of baseball was re-drafted.

Joe Mauer  (C) – Despite being the cornerstone for my favorite team’s rival, I love Mauer, but I also realize that this isn’t fantasy baseball.  There is no certainty that he remains a catcher going forward given this spate of injuries that has limited him to nine games.  Beyond that, I love the batting average, but I’m not starting my franchise with someone who hits nine home runs a year despite being a middle-of-the-order hitter.  Still, I don’t want to be clouded by these past two months so I still considered him right down to the end.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Franchise Draft, Mock Drafts, Rankings, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Monday: 06.6.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 10 Monday-Friday

It was the roughest week in a long time for Trolling the Wire as Ervin Santana and Jason Hammel dug a hole (13 ER in 11 IP) the rest of picks couldn’t climb out of by Sunday.  The remaining 12 starters from Monday on had a respectable 3.68 ERA, but that gets masked by the Memorial Day thrashings suffered by big Erv and Hammel.

Despite some up and down weeks with ERA and WHIP, I would like to point out that only once has the ground of TtW picks ending the week with a sub-2.0 K/BB rate.  Also, the strikeout rate has been 6.2 K/9 or better in all but one week (not the single sub-2.0 week; K rate was 6.2 that week).

Overall, I am pretty happy with the picks given that almost every single one of the 104 selections has been someone available in 50% or more of all leagues across all three of the main fantasy baseball outlets.  At times, I pick someone with a higher yet still too low (in my opinion) ownership rate, but I always make sure to note that so everyone understands he may not be available in your particular league.

Let’s see what week 10 holds.

MONDAY:

Brian Matusz (BAL v. OAK) – This guy needs to be owned, plain & simple.  I don’t care what the format is, I love his talent.  He may have some bumps in his first handful of starts back, but if you wait until he’s running completely hot, he won’t be available to pick up.

Scott Baker (MIN @ CLE) – He’s off the hold list for a while because he’s been uneven this year, but I still think he is worthwhile as a spot starter.

TUESDAY:

Phil Humber (CHW v. SEA) – Hats off to the Mariners for their recent surge, but it’s being driven mostly by their pitching and I’m still not afraid of that lineup in the least.  Humber doesn’t miss as many bats as I would like (5.1 K/9), but I love the matchup.

Rubby de la Rosa (LAD @ PHI) – This one isn’t for the faint of heart, but I love the talent this kid has and think he could hit the ground running as a starter.  Citizen’s Bank Ballpark is a bit scary, but the Philadelphia Phillies lineup really isn’t.  This pick is also a bit of a futures play.  If he goes out and dominates, he becomes much harder to acquire him, especially in faster-finger leagues, because he will draw the attention of your leaguemates.  So let’s get the jump on this blue-chip prospect.

WEDNESDAY:

Gavin Floyd (CHW v. SEA) – A better option than Humber against the same feeble lineup.  Sign me up.  He’s heavily owned at CBS (88%), but definitely under-owned in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues checking in at 60% and 63%, respectively.  Won’t be available for all, but a must-own if he’s on your wire.

Randy Wolf (MIL v. NYM) – Wolf’s composite skills are solid enough, but the home/road split is what sells me on him this week.  Home: 2.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 32 IP; Road: 4.38 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 39 IP.  He strikes out more on the road, but give me the better rates against a middle of the pack lineup (14th-best OPS in baseball).

THURSDAY:

Aaron Harang (SD v. WAS) – We knew Petco would be friendly to Harang which is what made him intriguing in the first place this offseason.  It has played out that way with a 3.31 home ERA against a 4.84 mark on the road.  Take the known advantage of the spacious ballpark and pair it with a great matchup against a bottom five offense.

Jeff Karstens (PIT v. ARI) – Another sharp home/road split to take advantage of here.  Karstens is toting a career best strikeout (6.6 K/9) and walk (1.7 BB/9) rates, the latter of which sinks to 1.5 at home.  He is over three runs better at home with a 2.21 ERA in 37 innings at PNC Park (5.23 road ERA) and though Arizona is having a great run of late, their road offense is bottom five with 105 runs scored and a paltry .657 OPS.

FRIDAY:

Charlie Morton (PIT v. NYM) – What does this kid have to do to get some love?  He’s been fantastic this year.  The strikeout rate is low, there’s no doubt about it, so innings cap leaguers beware if you don’t have a strikeout ace.  But beyond that he’s been brilliant and the groundball rate is astronomical which covers that K deficiency nicely.

 

Weekend picks later this week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 06.6.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 10 Monday

I’ll post the rest later, but I’ve been quite busy at work today.  I wanted to get Monday’s picks out for leagues that still allow pick ups (namely ESPN ones).

Brian Matusz v. OAK

Scott Baker v. CLE

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 06.6.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 5th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Det – Austin Jackson was sub-.200 on 5/6, hitting .284/.346/.432 w/2 HR, 9 RBI, 14 R, 9BB, 6 SB since. DET 15-9 during stretch; 15-18 before.

CWS – Gordon Beckham, Adam Dunn & Alex Rios are a combined .205/.291/.324 w/14 HR & 55 RBI in 581 AB

CWS2 – 5 players have more HR than the trio & 4 are within 10 of their RBI total; it’s a near-miracle CWS is just 4 under .500

Tex – Mitch Moreland is hitting .308/.381/.506 w/8 HR, but just 19 RBI. Prob bc of 1.056 OPS w/no one on against .691 w/men on & .687 w/RISP

Cle – Cleveland is 12-15 in last month & just 4-9 since big sweep of Cincy. Sets at NYY-DET-SF-ARI-CIN & home v. NYY in next month will show a lot

LAD – Matt Kemp is on fire since 5/23: .341/.413/.829 w/6 HR, 16 RBI, 10 R, 2 SB; has played in 263 straight games… MLB’s longest. Rest easy, Cal.

Cin – Johnny Cueto is a lone bright spot in CIN rotation, but K sliding yearly down to 5.2 this yr. BABIP & LOB% fueled 2.27 ERA will rise. Sell.

Tor – Yunel Escobar is sitting comfortably atop TOR lineup & is on pace for career year: .293/.373/.451, 7 HR-24 RBI paces for 19 HR-66 RBI.

Bal – Kevin Gregg‘s weak skills (1:1 K/BB) could open the door for Koji Uehara. He hates being healthy, but 11.7 K/9 & 6.4 K/BB are great. Speculate.

Oak – Brett Anderson‘s ERA is 4.00 thru Sunday start, but 6.6 K/9, 2.4 K/BB & 60% GB rate make his a must-buy profile. Discount possible.

Bos – Overall numbers don’t show it, but Carl Crawford is red-hot the last month: .306 AVG, 4 HR, 12 XBH, 22 RBI, 20 R, 3 SB. Hard to erase ugly starts.

Bos2 – Tell a friend Adrian Gonzalez has 12 HRs & ask him to guess how many came in April. Answer is 1. See why 1st mo. is no reason to freak out?

Mil – It’s never been talent w/Rickie Weeks, only health & he’s en route to 2nd str8 huge, healthy yr: .288/.358/.500, 30 HR, 71 RBI, 19 SB, 113 R

Mil2 – Weeks played w/fire in terms of his health last yr leading baseball w/25 HBP. On pace to cut that nearly in half w/13.

Flo – Marlins are being propped up by a bullpen that features 1 arm w/an ERA over 3.86. Easing pain of Johnson out & awful back end of rotation.

Phi – Chase Utley is hitting a paltry .227/.333/.318, but 3 SBs suggest he’s healthy meaning the rest will come. I’d buy where available.

Pit – Some prospects are late-bloomers: Neil Walker was 4-time top 81 ‘spect ’05-08, debuted in ’10, now on pace for 22-109. Can’t give up.

CHC – Do not stare directly into Tyler Colvin‘s 20 HRs from ’10, it’ll distract you from .147/.220/.250 line since Sept 1. of last year.

StL – Here comes Albert Pujols: .322/.395/.504 w/5 HR, 18 RBI, 16 R & 3 SB since Cinco de Mayo. Ole!

Min – With inj.ravaging MLB, you could do worse than Alexi Casilla: .329/.406/.353 w/13 R, 5 SB & 7 RBI since May 1st. Elig. at both MI positions

KC – Until Sat. Aaron Crow hadn’t even pitched much less SV’d a gm this wk. KC has either won big (1), late (1) or lost (4) since he got CL role.

NYY – Brett Gardner is really struggling in areas he excelled in last yr: pace of 51 BB in 159 G, 79 in 150 in ’10; 28/20 SB/CS (47/9 in ’10)

LAA – Bobby Abreu has .393/.493/.547 line since May 18th, up 40 pts to .292. On pace for 27 SB, but other #s struggling. Perhaps a selling point.

Col – Troy Tulowitzki hitting .289/.362/.404, 0 HR, but jello is shaking w/noise in the distance. Brace yourself, could be a hot streak coming.

Col2 – Daily leaguers: platoon Chris Iannetta home & away for maximization of value: H-.310/.432/.676, 6 HR, 19 RBI; R-.149/.329/.209, 2 HR, 4 RBI

SF – Ryan Vogelsong stays hot w/big 2 start week: 13 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 10 K, 3 BB. Season ERA down to 1.68, 7 K/9, 3 K/BB. Hard not to buy in.

Col-SF – 10 R scored in Col-SF series; all SP went 6+ IP; all SF SP went 7+. Bullpens combined for 11 IP w/1 ER (Lindstrom today, game-winner).

Was – Jason Marquis is a fantasy baseball amusement ride, though the drops can induce vomit: ERA in 1st five-2.62, next five-6.21, last two-1.54.

Ari – Kelly Johnson was hitting .190 on 5/24. Since: .326/.436/.739 w/6 HR, 10 RBI, 15 R & 2 SB. Up to .224, on pace for 30 HR/22 SB.

TB – On Apr. 23, Sam Fuld was hitting .365/.407/.541 w/13 R, 10 SB (3 CS); since .157/.215/.240 w/8 R, 4 SB (3 CS). #bonifacioed

Sea – Brandon League since 4 gm meltdown-fest: 9 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 7 SV; tied for AL lead w/16 SV. Good luck getting that job Aardsma.

Hou – Welcome to the bigs, Jordan Lyles. Even the lowly Padres are tougher than the best AAA team: 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 2nd career start

SD – Surely 3B is too thin for Chase Headley to be owned at only ~50% at the major outlets? Sure 1 HR sucks, but passable AVG & 20 SB is OK.

Atl – Freddie Freeman‘s .217/.314/.380 Apr may’ve dissuaded some, but patience has been rewarded w/.327/.378/.453 since May 1.  Power remains light, but that was expected.

NYM – Dillon Gee has been a gem for the Mets rotation this yr: 6-0, 3.33 ERA, 1.11, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB. Numbers support success, espec. in NL-Only

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Sunday Twidbits, Team Specific | 1 Comment »

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Saturday: 06.4.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 9 The Weekend

I don’t usually post on Saturday, but I owe you all some spot starter picks!  I fell asleep early and was out like a light last night.  I finished my top 30 picks, then focused in entirely on my Tigers against the White Sox and wasn’t awake to see the end of the 6-4 loss.  So let’s get these out quickly and you still might be able to make a move:

SATURDAY:

Doug Fister (SEA v. TB) – I never bought in on Fister last year and was eventually proven right as he ended the season with a 4.11 ERA.  He just didn’t strikeout enough guys for my liking.  He has changed that so far this year with 6.0 K/9 in May and 6.2 for the season.  Combine that with a strong 2.0 BB/9 and this is an appealing skill set.  The M’s are somehow smoking the Rays early on in this series and it doesn’t get easier for the Rays facing Fister.

Dillon Gee (NYM v. ATL) – Not much is going right for the Mets this year, but Gee has been a bright spot for the Mets rotation and I like him at home (2.20 ERA in Citi) against the Braves.

SUNDAY:

Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. COL) – The strikeouts are on the decline a bit in his last three starts, but he has a 0.38 ERA at home despite 5.3 K/9.  He amps up the punchouts on the road (8.6) so if you need Ks, the trends say this might not be the best spot for him, but for a quality outing I’d go with him.

Erik Bedard (SEA v. TB) – His swan song on Trolling the Wire as his ownership rates continue to climb because owners are finally catching on.

James McDonald (PIT v. PHI) – He was positively brilliant in May (2.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 K/BB in 35 IP) and I think he can hold his own against the Phillies, especially at home (2.55 home ERA/6.49 road).  His offense faces Roy Halladay so a win might be tough to come by, but we don’t chase wins.

Results (need to rally this weekend!) and Week 10 picks tomorrow…

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 06.3.2011

My Top 30 Franchise Picks

On Wednesday I wrote a bit about the ESPN Franchise Draft whereby they had a one round draft under the premise of who you would start a franchise with if every single player was thrown back into a pool and the league essentially started from scratch.  That piece focused on Doug Glanville’s ludicrous selection of Wilson Ramos and I proceeded to name 50 guys off the top of my head that I would definitely have taken ahead of Ramos.

Now I want to put myself within the draft and offer up my top 30 picks for a draft like this.  There are so many things to consider in this exercise.  Apart from the obvious of pure production on the field, there is age, position, health and marketability.  I’m not sure how many people considered that last one within their equation, but I think there is at least a shred of it in the pie chart.  After all, I’m building my franchise from the ground up, it doesn’t hurt to start off with a star on and off the field.

So here are my top 30 players to select if I was starting a major league franchise.  Let me know what you think or what your own top 30 looks like in the comments or on Twitter (@sporer).

1. Evan Longoria (3B, 25 years old) – I think it’s a really a coin toss between Longo and the next guy as both play strong defense at premium positions with massive bats.  Both are budding superstars with their best years ahead of them and while I’m not sure you can go wrong, my preference is for Longoria.  I’m trading the step down in position importance (but better defense at it) for an extra year of age with this guy…

2. Troy Tulowitzki (SS, 26 years old) – Both of these first two guys have three elite seasons under their belt so far and are en route to a fourth and as I mentioned Tulow also plays elite defense at a cornerstone position.  It’s also smart to build up the middle, except if it’s with Wilson Ramos, so that’s another checkmark in the pro column for Tulow.  I can’t stress enough how close these first two are for that top spot and if I were picking second in this kind of draft with Longo going first I wouldn’t be the least bit upset “settling” for Tulowitzki.

3. Miguel Cabrera (1B, 28 years old) – I’m sorry, was hitting not a factor in ESPN’s draft?  Cabrera DID NOT GET PICKED among the 30 selections in their draft.  Look, I realize that first base is neither a premium defensive position nor a particularly thin one, but this isn’t an good-but-not-great first base type like Gaby Sanchez, Paul Konerko or Ryan Howard (and truly no offense to any of those three, they’d be pretty high round picks), this is a top three or four hitter in all of baseball who is just starting his prime.  I realize my fandom for Tigers will make many think that’s where I’m coming from on this, but rest assured I’m really not.  It’s common sense.

4. Jason Heyward (RF, 21 years old) – To be honest, I wouldn’t destroy someone for taking him #1 overall.  This is a franchise foundation without question: he’s 21, he’s shown he can hang in the majors already over a reasonable sample (123 OPS+ in 187 gms) and he plays an important position.  It’s not as important as the up the middle positions, but it’s not exactly left field/first base, either.  Did I mention he can barely drink legally?  This is a superstar in the making and in case you missed it, he’s five years younger than Tulowitzki.

5. Felix Hernandez (SP, 25 years old) – It might go a bit unnoticed because it is almost expected at this point, but Hernandez has done something a lot blue chip prospect starting pitchers or rather any position of blue chip prospect for that matter fail to do: he’s living up to the hype.  Hype is a dangerous thing in today’s sport culture.  The more you get heaped upon you, even if you didn’t ask for it, the shorter amount of time you have to live up to it.  Hernandez began living up to it right out of the gate with a 2.67 ERA in 84 innings at age 19 back in 2005.  He followed it up with a 4.52 ERA as he struggled with gopheritis (1.1 HR/9), but has shaved his ERA down significantly every year since: 3.92-3.45-2.49-2.27 all while adding innings.  With a rock solid skill set and the proven capability to handle workloads easily exceeding 200 innings, King Felix is the kind of pitcher you can build a franchise around with minimal risk (not zero risk, ALL pitchers have risk… it’s an unnatural motion of the body).

6. Albert Pujols (1B, 31 years old) – I, for one, am not going to let two months of hitting like a mere mortal lead me to believe that Pujols is still the best pure hitter in the game and possibly ever.  Even at 31, I think he gets back on track this year and then still has at least two more years among the elite and then another three or four as an All-Star stud.  (See also: Rodriguez, Alex)

7. Justin Upton (RF, 23 years old) – It was a shock to see Upton last until the 29th pick in the ESPN draft.  He is 23 years old with three above average seasons including one elite season (2009) and very strong defense in right field.  A legitimate knock against him would be the fact that the has yet to play more than 138 games in his three full seasons, but his track record of nearly 2000 plate appearances of above average play at such a young age with legitimate defense is too much to pass up.

8. Andrew McCutchen (CF, 24 years old) – This is an overlooked budding star who plays an elite defensive position pretty well already and continues to improve.  He is an across-the-board contributor offensively, too, capable of marked improvement as he gets older.  He can bat first or third, too.  He was another snub that surprised me.

9. Carlos Gonzalez (LF/CF/RF, 25 years old) – Currently a left fielder, CarGo can reasonably play any of the three outfield positions which increases his value for the team drafting him as both of the other positions are more valuable.  His 2010 campaign showed us his upside with the bat while his downside is probably something like .280, 25 bombs and 20 steals with runs scored & driven in depending on the team you put around him.  He was a three time top 32 (18th, 22nd, 32nd) prospect by Baseball America and he is showing why day after day.

10. Ryan Zimmerman (3B, 26 years old) – Perhaps he was forgotten because he is currently on the disabled list, but he was yet another stunning snub in ESPN’s draft.  What doesn’t he bring to the table?  Brilliant defense and excellent offense all wrapped up in a 26-year old package.  If he wasn’t playing in Washington, he would definitely have a higher profile and perhaps get the recognition he deserves as an all-around star player.  Harper & Strasburg get all the press, but Zimmerman is the franchise leader right now.  Those two will join him and Jayson Werth to give them a great foundation for competing in the near future.

11. Joey Votto (1B, 27 years old) – I am a huge fan of Votto.  I was before his MVP breakout last year and remain so now, but I don’t think he is  a high-30s home run hitter going forward, not with the skills he has displayed throughout his career.  That doesn’t mean he isn’t an elite force in middle a lineup, though.  What he lacks in home runs, he makes up for with plenty of other base hits (.317 career hitter including a yearly rise since 2008: .297-.322-.324-.338) and a ton of doubles.  Plus he is just 27 so he could realistically deliver a sustained power jump in the coming years.

12. Ryan Braun (LF, 27 years old) – His bat is so overwhelmingly awesome that his below average defense at a low-impact position barely matters.  He plays an offense-heavy position and yet still outclasses his peers by no less than 30% in any given season (career 141 OPS+; low: 130, high: 161 so far in ’11, but 154 for a completed season).  Throw in a tremendous work ethic and great personality and you have a superstar cornerstone to build your franchise around.

13. Tim Lincecum (SP, 27 years old) – It is frightening to think that he might be “boring” at this point as the next class of ace-potential young arms is making its presence felt in Year 2 of The Pitcher.  Ho-hum all The Freak does is continue to strike out the world (three straight K titles) and post excellent, Cy Young-caliber numbers.  After an un-Freak-like 3.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 2010, Lincecum appears to have taken steps to ensure that doesn’t happen again and has come out with a career-best 2.6 BB/9 so far this season with very little cost to his strikeout rate (down from 9.8 to 9.5 K/9).

14. Mike Stanton (RF, 21 years old) – Taking a guy who hasn’t yet reached 600 plate appearances at the major league level is risky but his off-the-charts power potential, youth and big time defense are worth taking the plunge to build around.

15. Jay Bruce (RF, 24 years old) – Between he and Stanton it’s another coin toss tradeoff where personal preference plays a big role.  Would you rather have more of a track record yet keep the power potential and star defense?  OK, it only costs three years.  Some would trade the years for the comfort of certainty.  I went the other way in this instance.

16. Bryce Harper (RF, 18 years old) – It’s really hard to take any player who has yet to see a pitch in the major leagues and build your franchise around him, but everything I have seen from this kid suggests he is worth it.  Still it’s a little scary starting your organization with someone who hasn’t even been to AA yet and then take him 17th overall, let alone 9th which is where Eric Karabell took him in ESPN’s draft.

17. Mike Trout (CF, 19 years old) – The only other prospect in my 30, Trout was also selected in the ESPN draft (12th) despite having never played in the majors.  His potential is slightly more realized with a season and a half (spread across 3 years) of professional ball under his belt and 47 games of mashing AA (.306/.413/.514).  He should no doubt hit AAA this year and could even debut for the Angels at some point in ’11.  He is a tick below Harper for me, but like a few others, this one could go either way.

18. Jose Reyes (SS, 28 years old) – Kind of forgotten after the last two years in which he totaled just 169 games, but he was still an above average player at a great position to build around.  He has only once been an elite defender, but he’s not a stone-handed, no-range shortstop, either.  I prefer someone who can make plays as I would definitely favor groundball/strikeout pitchers so I need my infield to be able to pick it.

19. Stephen Drew (SS, 28 years old) – This one will no doubt surprise people, but he has an above average bat with good-to-great defense (higher defensive value than Tulowitzki last year) at the premium position.  I would prefer as well-rounded a player as I can get depending on pick and who is available and Drew fits the bill nicely.  As I mentioned with Reyes, my infield defense needs to be tight or else they will hurt my franchise’s pitchers so I will bypass this next guy, who might not even be a shortstop soon, for the non-elite, but still very good Drew.

20. Hanley Ramirez (SS, 27 years old) – His ranking here is not an overreaction to his struggling two months, it is because we aren’t doing a fantasy draft here so his horrible defense matters.  Like I said, it might not even be sensible to leave him at short in a year or two which would cut into his overall value.  The offensive numbers are great, but dwindling and we may have seen the best of Ramirez with his .342 average in 2009 and 33 home runs in 2008.

21. Jose Bautista (RF/3B, 30 years old) – He was tough to slot.  He’s definitely become one of baseball’s best hitters in short order, but the track record remains scant with exactly a year and three months (starting in Sept. of ’09) of elite-level production.  Alas nothing in his profile suggests he can’t continue to be a great player and he has the flexibility of right or third base.  He is much better in right, but improvements at third suggest he wouldn’t kill you there if you acquired a big time right fielder later in the draft.

22. Adrian Gonzalez (1B, 29 years old) – Was his first basemenness (new word!) really enough to dissuade all 30 ESPN drafters from his five full seasons of 141 OPS+ coming into this season and a 149 mark so far this season now that he is out of Petco?  I’m sorry, but aren’t we in a power drought these last two years?  OK, enough questions… there is no question that Gonzalez is a top 30 pick for me.

23. Robinson Cano (2B, 28 years old) – A major-impact bat at an up-the-middle position is a premium get and Cano is in the midst of such an impressive prime with the bat that his lagging defense isn’t as concerning.  What is somewhat concerning is a worry that second basemen fall off the table without warning as they reach their early 30s (Roberto Alomar and Brian Roberts to name a few; some fear Chase Utley is next) because of the strains the position puts on the body.

24. David Price (SP, 25 years old) – We are in a peak period for excellent young arms so I’m not inclined to chase one in with the first round pick, especially given the inherent risk associated with them, but there are still some who are a cut above and would earn my pick depending on slotting.  Price is just scratching the surface of his potential and I think he is going to be something truly special.

25. Justin Verlander (SP, 28 years old) – The definition of a workhorse, Verlander piles up the innings with relative ease.  With two no-hitters already to his credit, many believe he could add more as his career progress (more as in multiple, not just another one).  Averaging nearly seven innings a start keeps him long enough to give up some garbage runs at times as he is very good at pitching to the situation, but it also has kept his ERA in the 3.00s throughout his career when he definitely the talent to post a sub-3.00 season or two and make a huge push for a Cy Young Award.

26. Carl Crawford (LF, 29 years old) – Unless I was playing somewhere like Fenway Park that robs a ton of his defensive value, Crawford is an elite all-around asset with plenty left in the tank.  Had he stormed out of the gates in the first two months of the season, I’m sure he’d have been taken in the ESPN Draft, alas you only have one chance to take a closer or a backup catcher in the first round so Crawford was left out.

27. Shin-Soo Choo (RF, 28 years old) – This is a superstar from a pure numbers aspect, but playing for a last place team (until now) like Cleveland the last few years leaves him overshadowed and without the due he deserves.  He is the classic .300/.400/.500 guy with power, speed and defense.  A little older at 28, but hardly too old to build around at 28.

28. Buster Posey (C, 24 years old) – A pick here assumes that his recently-suffered injury won’t incapacitate him anymore than this year or cause a move out from behind the plate because that’s where his value is best, of course.  He will never be a pure slugger contending for home run titles and that is what you would want out of a first baseman being picked to start your franchise.

29. Roy Halladay (SP, 34 years old) – Yes, he is the best pitcher in baseball right now, but I can’t only be focused on the here & now.  He is 34 years old and I’m not sure it is the smartest thing to start a franchise with an arm that old.  Of course, if I was saddled with a later pick in the first round, I would take Halladay and the build my team with a lean toward trying to win immediately.  That doesn’t mean I’d take all old guys, but ties would be broken on who can help more immediately.

30. Carlos Santana (C, 25 years old) – He won’t last at catcher, but that’s OK because his bat is so great that you don’t want him automatically losing games due to the wear and tear of that position.  However, he does have less value at first base because he isn’t a true slugger, at least not yet.  I’ll take him now and enjoy another 2-3 years of him as a catcher/first base hybrid and then hopefully I’ll have a catcher in my organization to take over just as Santana enters his prime as a fully developed hitter.

 

So that’s my list.  I’m sure there are disagreements, perhaps some agreements and plenty of thoughts so feel free to share them.  For reference, here is the ESPN Franchise Draft & Chat.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Franchise Draft, Rankings, Strategy | 3 Comments »

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Thursday: 06.2.2011

Blind Resume Comparison #2 – June 2nd

Something that holds a lot of fantasy baseball players back in their analysis is name value.  Whether on the high end, in the middle or at the low end, fantasy owners put a lot of stock into name which can cost them when analyzing deals, pickups and start-sit decisions.

Oftentimes we’ll create a narrative to fit the name value of the player we are analyzing.  A star-level player with a modest stat line is “working through a funk” or “about to turn it around” or “due to turn it up soon” and depending on the stat line in question, any or all of those may very well be true.  But that’s no always the case.  On the other end, a surging no-name is “getting lucky and sure to regress soon” or “a fluke that can’t keep this up” or “doing well, but definitely not better than *insert name of guy drafted 10 rounds before player in question*”.   [Ed. note – Yes, this is the same opening for the other BRC and it will be the form opening for all of them right now.]

An eye-opening exercise is to look at a pair of resumes without the names, do your analysis and then uncover the names.  Obviously, this can’t really be done solo for a bevy of reasons so I’m here to help!  The first blind resume comparison (BRC) is with a pair of outfielders:

198 AB 209

.258 AVG .278

33 R 27

8 HR 9

34 RBI 32

7 SB 6

5th Draft Season ADP Undr.

The draft positions might give this one away, but it’s kind of surprising to see a top five pick performing on par with someone who went undrafted in many, many leagues.  Rest assured, I am not for a second suggesting that anyone trade the one on the left for the one on the right in a 1-for-1 deal, just using these two to outline how things can be skewed even in a two month sample.

You hear time and time again throughout April and into May that “it’s too early” to analyze the stats we are seeing, in fact I say as much quite often at least in terms of the heavy outliers.  I usually apply it to guys with high expectations who are struggling and causing owners to panic.

For the guy on the left, he was a very costly investment that ended April with a .228/.277/.304 line.  The stink of that first month carried over into May and set up an ugly foundation that covered up the fact that he went .282/.375/.544 in May with seven home runs and 19 RBIs compared to one homer & 14 RBIs the month before.

Meanwhile Mr. Guy on the Right has done just the opposite where a .314/.357/.569 April offered enough cushion to help soften the blow of a .233/.287/.388 May that despite four home runs is more in line with what we would expect from him and shows why he was so often undrafted back in March.

Despite their similar season-long paces, you couldn’t get anyone to value them equally and this one has less to do with being tied to preseason values as it does to recognizing divergent starts that are nowhere near true talent levels.

Both players held to career form whereby Mr. Left often starts slow before turning it up in May and then really ramping it up in middle summer months.  Meanwhile April is Mr. Right’s best month by far across his career.  It’s his only above .800 OPS and it’s followed by a pair of sub-.700 months so you can reasonably expect things to get worse before maybe steadying for the remainder of the season.

Have an idea who the players are?  Their names are in white font just below if you want to select the space and reveal them.

 

Carlos Gonzalez

Jeff Francoeur

 

For those of you not wanting to do that or unable to for whatever reason click here & here for the player profiles.

Interesting, huh?

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Wednesday: 06.1.2011

With the 30th Pick in the MLB Restart Draft, Doug Glanville Selects…

When I first heard of the Franchise Player Draft at ESPN, I was intrigued by the idea.  To be honest, I only heard about in passing on Tuesday and knew it was going to be released to the public on Wednesday with a chat to discuss the picks.

If you’re unfamiliar with it, basically they took 30 members somehow tied to baseball whether writers, reporters, talking heads, analysts, etc… and did a one round draft under the premise of “If you were starting a franchise from scratch, you would take…” and they eliminated financial concerns from the equation.  Of course it is tough to think of players independent of their current financial and team control situations.

On the whole, it’s a pretty innocuous exercise that can be fun to discuss and think about on your own and wonder who you might take if you were given the chance to make a pick.  At least it’s better than those fake press conferences they used to do years ago.  Unfortunately, Doug Glanville had to ruin it.  There are more than 30 great players in baseball for whom you could make a case as a franchise starter, so there were going to be snubs regardless, but Glanville made a joke of the whole thing.

Let me say up front that I quite like Glanville.  I have his book in queue to read on my iPad later this summer, I like that he is a huge Strat-o-Matic fan (a recently adopted hobby of mine that has actually cut into my book reading in the last two months) and I respect his thoughts and opinions on the game.  The Penn educated former outfielder is no dummy and he knows and loves this great game.

All of that said, his pick in this draft was stupid.  It’s 100% indefensible and makes absolutely no sense no matter how you slice it.  With the 30th pick in this draft he took Washington Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos.  Say what???  Glanville is the only person in the world who would start a major league franchise with Wilson Ramos.  Wilson Ramos’ mom wouldn’t take him with her first pick.  Ramos probably wouldn’t take himself if he was player/GM of a franchise.

Glanville’s rationale for the pick was that he wanted an up-the-middle presence to be the foundation of his team.  See?  I told you he was smart.  That is smart thinking.  If you’re building a team from the ground up, you want the best players you can get at catcher, shortstop, centerfield and second base.  Of course, his execution of an otherwise smart plan was an egregious misfire.  Ramos isn’t a complete shlub of player, he would eventually get drafted if this thing went several rounds, but there is no way he is the 30th guy off the board.

My first thought when I saw Glanville’s pick and justification was “I can think of 50 players of the top of my head, fulfilling his up-the-middle desires, that I would take ahead of Ramos.  And I could no doubt reach 200 if I veered from the middle of the field strategy instead just going for the best player.”  Alas, I went with my first thought and began punching up the 50 names.  Here are my results:

Ranked in Order of Preference by Position

I’m not trying to be smug or arrogant when I say coming up with that list wasn’t hard at all.  I also want to be clear that I wouldn’t necessarily take all 50 of those players with the #30 overall pick in a draft like this just that I would take every single of them over Ramos.  Ramos is a three time top-100 prospect with a reasonably bright future and the Twins would kill to have him back (they’d trade 3 Matt Cappses at this point), but there is simply ZERO justification for Glanville making that pick.  It’s like when someone takes their 10th-13th round sleeper in round 4 of a fantasy draft.  Sure, the player isn’t a completely worthless bum or anything, but there was no need to take him there as he’d have been available several rounds later even as a reach.

The clear #1 on that list of 50 for me is Andrew McCutchen.  He meets the up-the-middle criteria, he’s young and he’s also a very good hitter with across-the-board production.  Who would I have picked regardless of position had I been in that #30 spot?  You’ll have to wait until tomorrow for that.  I’m going to post my top 30 picks for this kind of draft.

 

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Draft, Rankings | 2 Comments »

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Tuesday: 05.31.2011

Roy Halladay Even Struggles Better Than Everyone Else

How many pitchers would kill to have one of their bad games be one where they go seven, give up four runs and still get the win?  Hundreds, I’m sure.  It wasn’t Roy Halladay’s worst start of the season, no, that was his six earned run in six and two-thirds showing where he yielding 10 hits and allowed walked a season-high two.

His Memorial Day effort during which he allowed three home runs, easily a season-worst, yielded his second lowest Game Score of the season at 46 yet he still managed to strike out five, walk nobody and as I mentioned, earned the win.  Still don’t think wins are a fluky, unpredictable whore of a stat?

What I found most interesting about Halladay’s start yesterday was that he gave up those three home runs yet still got a win.  How often does that happen?  More on that in that in a second.  Halladay doesn’t normally give up home runs, in fact even accounting for his Memorial Day three pack, his HR/9 rate is up to a still-tiny 0.5.

Since becoming a full-time starter back in 2001, his rate hasn’t topped 1.0.  In the parts of three years before that homers were a major issue for the young Halladay (21-23 years old in that span).  That said, he isn’t averse to allowing three or more in a start even during his reign as baseball’s best pitcher, or at least one of them.

In his Cy Young season of 2003 when he went 22-7 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and league-best 6.4 K/BB rate, he twice allowed three bombs in a game.  The first was against the Royals where the homers proved to be the only earned damage against Halladay as he went six leaving before there was a decision.  Toronto won the game 6-5.

The other was a bit more damaging, but again he didn’t expire the bullpen going 7.3 innings allowing six runs striking out seven and walking just one.  He had a similar outing the following year going 6.7 innings allowing seven, six earned against Detroit, but struck out nine and walked a pair.

He has allowed 3+ home runs seven more times since 2007 which is tied with eight others for the third-most in major league baseball, including Johan Santana interestingly enough.  In those games, he is a seemingly impossible 4-2 (.667 winning percentage) outclassing his mates with a 5.47 ERA (next best is 6.95; worst is 12.20) and 1.31 WHIP (1.43; 1.96).

One of his four wins even came when he allowed four home runs in a game.  That was last year in September against Milwaukee.  They were all solo shots and the only four runs allowed by Halladay.

Now, how often does a starting pitcher give up three home runs and still come out on the other end with a win?  Here’s a clue, it’s not two-thirds of the time like Halladay.  In that same 2007-2011 span, the league is 70-449 (.135 winning percentage) in 3+ home runs allowed starts for major league baseball pitchers.

Not surprisingly, Halladay is also the best at saving the bullpen during those poor outing going 51 innings with Santana and James Shields checking in behind him at 44 each.  Of the 35 players with 5+ three home runs allowed outing since 2007, only he and now teammate Cliff Lee have a complete game under their belt.  Even when he’s doing poorly, Halladay is still better than everyone else.

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