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Wednesday: 05.4.2011

Minor Leaguers in Fantasy Baseball, Part 3

Picking up where we last left off, part 3 of the series looks at the rest of the top 20 from 2006 to see how successful that class ended up being from a fantasy perspective.  Remember, they are being graded on their fantasy impact with a heavy lean toward their first three years (when most fantasy owners who own them as minor leaguers can keep them for an initial low price, usually $5).

11. Prince Fielder (MIL) – Hands down the best of the bunch thus far.  He has five straight seasons with 157+ games played with tremendous results (110 OPS+ in ’06, never lower than 130 since).  For a rebuilding team back in 2005-2006, they are thrilled with the returns of Fielder whether they had him as a minor league pick or traded a bundle for him to a contending team.  This is what people are hoping to get with someone like Bryce Harper or Mike Trout (not necessarily the same package of results, but the superstar performance).  Rating: 6 – Yes, he exceeds the scale.  You just can’t get better results out of a prospect whether in fantasy baseball or in the real world game.

12. Howie Kendrick (LAA) – Conversely, this isn’t exactly what you want out a prospect.  He is just now entering his prime (and off to a fantastic start), but the lead up has been disappointing as last year was his first season topping 105 games when he played 158 but only put up the same stat line as that 105 game season (and not even as good in some areas).  He has been a ho-hum fantasy asset.  Though he could still be a success at 27 years old, he has definitely been a bust for fantasy leaguers as a once blue-chip prospect.  Rating: 1.5 – Simply hasn’t played enough and the results, outside of some decent batting averages early on, have been unimpressive.

13. Alex Gordon (KC) – He actually peaked at #2 on the BA list (2007), but he’s been an unmitigated disaster since then.  He checked in at #13 on the 2006 list before ever seeing a pitch as a professional and proceeded to have an excellent season at AA-Wichita with 29 home runs, 101 RBIs and 22 stolen bases all while hitting .325 in 130 games.  Considering that he started his pro career in AA and tore it up, he was one of the most prized young commodities in the game and his fantasy owners no doubt mulled over some truly amazing offers before inevitably deciding to enjoy the next George Brett instead.  Whoops.  Rating: 0.5 – He is off to a nice start and has done a bit more in the majors than Wood or else he’d have earned a 0, too.

14. Andy Marte (CLE) – Biggest bust this side of Christina Hendricks.  Rating: 0 – Yeah, that’s all I’m going to write about him.  He has 20 home runs in 301 career games after three 20-home run seasons in the minors before 2006.

15. Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) – The 2005 #4 overall pick needed just 67 minor leagues games to reach the majors and that happened the year he was draft.  That’s pretty impressive.  He came up for great 20-game cup of coffee and he has been an excellent major leaguer since.  Of course he is stuck on the disabled list this year and he will be out at least six weeks thanks to abdominal surgery.  But judging him on the whole, the only logical conclusion is that he has been an overwhelming success as the star player of the Washington Nationals.  Coming up the year he was drafted as a 20-year old and not only sticking ever since but performing at a well above average clip (career 121 OPS+) makes Zimm one of the best overall prospects of the last five years.  Rating: 5 – I don’t instantly recall how much fanfare he received back in 2006 as a minor leaguer, but as a top five draft pick he was no doubt firmly entrenched on the radar.  He has done quite well for his owners whether they drafted him or traded for his services.

16. Ian Stewart (COL) – The blurb on the Baseball America list says that Stewart drew comparisons to former Rockie Larry Walker.  Wow, I see why the scout wanted to remain anonymous on that comment.  A 38-year old decrepit Walker did more in 100 games than anything Stewart has done in his career.  He showed elite power in the minor leagues (.234 ISO) and for second it appeared as though it was starting to show at the majors with a 25-home run season in 2009, but he regressed back in 2010 and then stumbled so badly out of the gate in 2011 that he was sent back to the minors (though he was recently recalled).  He may be a late bloomer (26 this year), but he is very unlikely to ever meet the lofty expectations placed upon him in the minors.  His #16 rank in 2006 was a drop from #4 the year before while his mediocre season in the minors led to a 30-spot drop for the 2007 list.  He has definitely been a bust for his original fantasy owners and now he is polluting the rosters of a new set of owners.  Rating: 2 – Slight credit for 25 and 18 home run seasons in 2009 and 2010.

17. Conor Jackson (ARI) – The various maladies that derailed what looked like a promising career aren’t necessarily Jackson’s fault, but they have limited him to just 90 games played across the last two seasons.  However his initial owners, which is our focus in this piece, have to be pretty pleased with what he delivered in the three year stretch from 2006-2008.  If they turned away offers to keep their prized prospect, they can’t be too angry with the .292/.371/.451 line with an average of 14 home runs, 71 runs driven in, 73 runs scored and four stolen bases (powered mostly by a season of 10 in 2008).  Rating: 4 – Not quite star level, but when you consider the failure rate of prospects, his three year run was quite valuable.

18. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (ATL) – A slightly better version of Andy Marte considering his stats are a bit better in fewer games and he wasn’t a three time top 14 prospect like Marte.  That said, he is still a huge bust.  At 26, I guess it’s feasible for him to still be something of value, but he gave nothing to his original fantasy owners who had him as a prospect.  Rating: 1 – Assuming they remember any of them, they have to be kicking themselves for passing on the sweetheart deals that game their way for this highly sought after backstop.

19. Andy LaRoche (LAD) – Often the younger brothers of professional athletes are expected to be better than the older sibling, but that is far from the case in the LaRoche household.  Adam LaRoche has carved out a very solid career as mid-20s power first basemen while his brother is in his third organization in four years.  He was never the super-hyped “must-have” prospect meaning there likely isn’t a lot of regret tied to offers passed up to keep LaRoche.  Though given how poorly he has performed, I’m his original fantasy owners wish they’d have taken any deal that involved getting a productive major leaguer in exchange for LaRoche.  Rating: 1 – It took until his third year just to register 225+ at-bats in a season.

20. Carlos Quentin (ARI) – He has had an up and down career tied mostly to a host of injuries both in the minors and in the majors.  Those who had him in NL-Only leagues were really burnt as he flopped in his first two major league stints posting a combined .230/.316/.425 line in 57 and 81 game samples in 2006 and 2007.  Then he was traded to the White Sox and exploded for an MVP-caliber season that was cut short by injury.  He has remained a power threat, but hasn’t quite captured the magic from his 2008.  Rating: 2.5 – It is hard to account for all the potential factors here.  As I said, NL-Only owners were burnt to a crisp here though mixed leaguers did get an amazing season his third year in the big leagues      .  I settled at 2.5 giving credit for the awesome season, but not too much since he has been underwhelming otherwise.

Totaling up the ratings, we get an average of 2.4 across the 20 players (because I included halves and broke the scale on each end with a 6 and two 0s).  That’s not very good.  Breaking it down shows us just how sketchy even the best prospects can be:

There are 14 players with a 2.5 rating or worse, which is the threshold I would consider to be a failur.  Now this is of course a subjective scale, but based on the criteria, I’m not sure you could find much disagreement regardless of who was doing the rating.  The biggest consideration goes to initial performance because we are comparing it against the perceived value back when they were prospects prior to reaching the bigs.

APPLYING THE 2006 LESSON

How do we apply what we learned here to the current prospect landscape in 2011?  There isn’t a surefire rule for prospects thus there isn’t one specific takeaway from this exercise.  If I were to come away with one notion it would be not to put so much stock into minor leaguers and when faced with a favorable deal loaded with proven talent (and this isn’t a far-fetched scenario, prospect hounds often are willing to overpay) to trade a blue chip prospect, even if it is the one that EVERYONE thinks CAN’T MISS, pulling the trigger is the way to go.

Sure you might be trading away the next Prince Fielder or Zimmerman, but the odds are much higher that you’re trading away a Gordon or Marte or LaRoche or Salty or Stewart or you get the point.  And even if you are trading away the former, it isn’t like you are getting ripped off for him (which is probably the main point here), you just won’t be able to tout having rostered the next big thing from day 1.  As silly as it sounds, that very thing means a lot to people as they aim to prove how smart they are when it comes to projecting talent.

If it isn’t really your fault if your prospect fizzles out (and it really isn’t), then you aren’t a master scout ready to get your Stalker and stopwatch and post up behind home plate when one of your guys hits, either.

A major part of the must-have-youth epidemic in fantasy baseball is that everyone is trying to set themselves up for the future while still contending.  They want to be the New England Patriots who continue to trade for more picks in the future instead of just picking some damn players for once.

Don’t be that guy.  If you are lucky enough to nab a Mike Trout who skyrockets up prospect lists leaving with this massively sought after commodity, but you also have a core of legitimate talent on expiring contracts, don’t be afraid to deal Trout for the missing pieces to championship puzzle.

One thing we have learned in the early part of 2011 is that with these insane injuries, you’re never really “set”.  If you are looking at your roster at any point in the season that isn’t the final day of a championship season and thinking you can’t use any help, then you are only fooling yourself.

That doesn’t mean you should turnover your roster everyday with trades and waiver pickups, but unless you can predict the future, you roster is always in need of care and if it means trading a top prospect and you’re getting a great offer, I don’t see any reason to pass it up.

2011 PROSPECTS

I picked the 2006 list because it is five years old and thus can be reasonably judged as all of the players have had ample time to prove themselves one way or another.  Of course it is just one data point in the grand scheme and only 20 prospects on that data point meaning the 70% failure rate I ended up with isn’t necessarily the norm.

Perhaps 2006 was an anomaly, however I am pretty certain that it isn’t too far off, especially when the measure for success in fantasy baseball is a much higher bar than in on the field baseball.  If we were going solely on real life baseball success, about 65% of those players would be successes.

So getting back to the 70% failure rate, let’s bump it down a bit since the sample was limited and say that 12 of any given top 20 will be fantasy failures.  That means that 12 of these guys, who currently hold significant value in their fantasy leagues, won’t pan out:

Bryce Harper

Mike Trout

Jesus Montero

Dominic Brown

Julio Teheran

Jeremy Hellickson

Aroldis Chapman

Eric Hosmer

Mike Moustakas

Wil Myers

Jameson Taillon

Dustin Ackley

Shelby Miller

Manny Machado

Matt Moore

Michael Pineda

Freddie Freeman

John Lamb

Mike Montgomery

Chris Sale

Though it is very early, Hellickson, Chapman and Pineda are all already enjoying some big league success and giving back to their owners in a positive way.  Sale was great in his stint last year, but he’s been terrible so far this year.  Freeman is impossible to judge after just 133 plate appearances, but it hasn’t been great so far.

So that leave 15 players, realistically the jury is still very much out on all five already in the majors so let’s just say they stay as is with the three pitchers continuing to succeed and Sale & Freeman never quite paying off.  Of the remaining 15, 10 more are likely to massively underwhelm their fantasy owners in their first three years at the big league level.  Do you have any of those 15 remaining players?  How confident are you that yours are part of the five who will make it?  Trust me, everyone is saying to themselves that their guy or guys are in the five, but the problem is that we all have different players on the list meaning we really have no idea.

While the trend toward collecting young, unproven talent is in vogue for major league teams, it should be the opposite for fantasy league teams.  Any time you can turn over completely unproven talent for viable, bankable players, you should do it.  It is a bit of a gray area if you are out of contention, but even then I think you should be going after young talent that is logging major league reps whenever you can (think Brian Matusz types from last year).

Please don’t read that to mean that you should never keep minor league players and trade them for 20 cents on the dollar, I’m certainly not saying that.  To be clear what I am saying is that when you get great offers for the best prospects around, you are going to have more success taking the offer than you are by sitting on your minor leaguer and hoping he becomes a star, especially if you are in a position to win the title that season.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Prospects, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trading | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 05.1.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 5 Monday-Friday

This week was a process for the Spot Starter picks.  It started off poorly as posterboy Brandon McCarthy, who I recommended keeper permanently last week, was torched by the Angels allowing seven runs on 14 (!) hits in just five and a third innings.  Meanwhile, my second pick on Tuesday (skipped Monday due to a lack of viable options) was his opponent, Tyler Chatwood, who I went with over Marco Estrada and Gavin Floyd in order to get the most favorable matchup.

He was passable and earned a win, but the Floyd was excellent against the Yankees (W, 8 IP, 2 ER, 10 K, 5 BR) and Estrada looked sharp against the Reds (7 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 5 BR).  But I stand behind choosing Chatwood as those two were playing two of the best offenses in baseball and they happened to escape with some gems.  The favorable play was passing on those two, especially for this strategy.

Then on Wednesday Derek Holland was ripped for five earned runs in the third straight start and all of a sudden I had three recommendations who totaled 15.7 innings allowing 15 runs with just six strikeouts. Of course there was plenty of time left in the week and the remaining seven selections all allowed three or fewer runs while five of them logged six or more innings.

The rally helped lower the season-long ERA while the five wins logged double the season total to 10.

Let’s keep the weekend momentum (1.75 ERA in 25.7 innings with the Saturday & Sunday starters) going into week 5:

MONDAY:

Bartolo Colon (NYY @ DET) – His ownership rates will likely bump up again after free agent pickups are run on Sunday, but as of now he remains available in a lot of leagues across all of the major outlets.  He is striking batters out, he is inducing groundballs and he is going deep into his starts.  There is just nothing within this profile so far to caution against buying into it.  His resurgence is the epitome of Ron Shandler’s axiom: “Once a player displays a skill, he owns it.”

Derek Holland (TEX @ OAK) – The string of 5 ER starts has to stop here, right?  Holland is too talented to keep getting pounded for a nickel each game and the A’s in their spacious stadium is a great place to get right.  I will be watching this start to get a better handle on Holland, too.  I haven’t seen him throw since the start in NY where Ron Washington was an idiot.

TUESDAY:

Sam LeCure (CIN v. HOU) – LeCure is a perfect matchup play as he feasts on the weak, but isn’t quite as strong against the stiffer competition.  To wit, he has allowed 2 ER and 1 ER in starts against Houston and at San Diego, respectively, striking out 14 in 11 innings across the two starts.  In his other two starts he allowed five to Arizona (including four HR) and three at Milwaukee in just 4.3 innings.

R.A. Dickey (NYM v. SF) – He hasn’t quite been as strong as he was in 2010, but nobody really expected him to be, either.  He has been useful especially getting through some control issues early in the season.  He is generally strong at home (1.99 ERA at Citi; 3.58 away in ’10) and the Giants aren’t scaring anyone with their lineup as Buster Posey slumps (5 for his last 26) and Pablo Sandoval, their best hitter so far this year, just went on the disabled list for 4-6 weeks with a hand injury.

WEDNESDAY:

Kevin Correia (PIT @ SD) – The Giants look like the ’27 Yankees compared to their divisional foes in San Diego as the Padres needed a 7-run surge today to finally top 80 runs for the season (84-last in the majors).  Meanwhile, Correia has just one implosion this season while allowing two or fewer runs in four of his six starts.  He likely won’t maintain his 2.90 ERA all year, but I doubt the regression begins against his old teammates.

Jake Arrieta (BAL @ KC) – The Royals offense is doing some nice work this year, but so is Arrieta having looked great in five of his six starts (an 8 ER in 3.3 IP shellacking against Texas as the lone blemish) which is masked by a 5.01 ERA.  I like him to tame the Royals a bit and keep his streak going.  He may even sneak a win, too, as his offense gets to face Kyle Davies.

THURSDAY:

Joel Pineiro (LA @ BOS) – After starting the season on the disabled list, many owners cut bait on Pineiro as he just made his season debut this past weekend.  The Red Sox are still trying to find their footing so I like Pineiro to take advantage and induce plenty of weak contact en route to a solid showing.

Brandon Beachy (ATL v. MIL) – He is this week’s pick to keep as his ownership starting to increase with each passing great start.  I’m not sure what took so long.  Of course, he is still available in quite a few leagues so he makes the list at least once more.  He has a sub-1.00 WHIP and a strikeout per inning pitched, I can’t imagine a format where that isn’t useful.

FRIDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. LAD) – He just keeps performing so he keeps getting recommended.  His ERA looks available after being inflated in back-to-back starts in early April when he gave up 11 in 10 innings to Philly and Colorado.  Since then he has reeled off three straight 2 ER starts allowing just the six runs in 19.3 innings.  The Dodgers are essentially a two-man lineup right now so Niese should be able to continue rolling.

Phil Humber (CHW @ SEA) – Pitcher on a roll + garbage opponent + pitching in garbage opponent’s excellent ballpark = auto-start.  Humber is another guy with only one real significant negative mark on his record (4 ER in 5.3 against Tampa Bay), but he has been sharp otherwise including a gem under the spotlight in Yankee Stadium.  The MAAAriners shouldn’t prove too challenging.

Weekend picks later in the week…

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Player Focus, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 4 Comments »

Thursday: 04.28.2011

Minor Leaguers in Fantasy Baseball, Part 2

Yesterday I took a look at the impact of the 2010 rookie class and posited that could have a negative effect on how the fantasy community as a whole values prospects going forward.  Of course they are already overvalued as a whole so it may not move the needle a bit.

The fact remains that many owners are so eager to roster the next star that they often hamper their chances at winning just for the opportunity to be the guy who has Buster Posey on a cheap contract.  Posey was excellent last year and is off to another pretty strong start again in 2011, but he is the exception, not the rule.

In the next two parts of this series, I will look back at the top 20 prospects from 2006 to see how things have panned out for them.  What is the success rate of top prospects?  What is it that even defines success?  After looking back, I will have more thoughts on what this class from five years ago can teach us about the 2011 class and we should view minor leaguers now and going forward.

LOOKING BACK

So while the elite prospects acquitted themselves quite well, there were several players off the radar contributing legit numbers.  With just a year elapsed, it is impossible to truly judge the 2010 class completely, but the early returns are strong.  Let’s go back five years and see how things have gone for the top 20* prospects from 2006.

(*top 20 is a bit of an arbitrary cutoff, but seems like the right cutoff of the prospects who are coveted most by fantasy owners  who don’t have them and held tightest by owner who do)

1. Delmon Young (TB) – He was rated by BA four times: three times at #3 and #1 in 2006.  He was as can’t miss as can’t miss gets ripping through the minors in three years debuting at 20 years old and becoming a permanent big leaguer at 21.  Alas, he has kind of missed in terms of expectations-to-output ratio.  I have remained firmly entrenched on the Delmon Bandwagon as he is just 25 now, but last year was his first big time fantasy season since his rookie year when he hit .288 with 13 home runs, 93 RBIs and 10 stolen bases.  I would lean toward giving him an incomplete as I would like to see how his follow up season goes, but I think many would label him a bust.  Rating (1-5 scale, 5 being the best): 2 – Tough one to grade as we are still looking at a .291 career hitter who has played 150+ games in three of his four seasons, but the expectations were so astronomical that being just average is a disappointment both in fantasy baseball and on the field.

2. Justin Upton (ARI) – Another tough one to analyze as he is just 23 headed into his fourth full big league season.  That said, the results have been underwhelming with just the one truly star turn in 2009 sandwiched by two slightly above average seasons.  Through it all, he has failed to play 140 games in any single season.  Keep in mind that a major component of the grading here is how an owner of his back in 2006 feels now about turning away so many Godfather offers that may have brought him short-term glory and may have possibly unearthed a gem 2nd or 3rd tier prospect who would still be contributing today.  Rating: 2.5 – Earns a slightly higher mark than Delmon for delivering his big year while likely still a part of the original owner’s team, but otherwise his name is much bigger than the production.  His fantasy cost-to-talent ratio isn’t a favorable one for his owners let alone the regret he has saddled original owners with while looking back on offers.

3. Brandon Wood (LAA) – He is legitimately one of the worst major league baseball players ever.  He has put up more than a full season’s worth of 22 OPS+ (175 G, 501 PA).  That is unreal.  To have the alleged talent to earn that many at-bats combined with the constant failure takes a special kind of awful.  Rating: 0 – He likely changed how his original owners view prospects from now on.  You can bet that if they get have someone like Jesus Montero and get an equivalent offer to what they received for Wood back in 2006, they are taking it without blinking.

4. Jeremy Hermida (FLO) – Injuries just obliterated his career though it’s not like we shouldn’t have seen it coming as they started back in his minor league days.  Believed to be a dynamic five tool power-speed combo, Hermida never really ran at the big league level likely because there was no sense risking injury in the rare time he was actually on the field.  The power materialized in spurts, but all in all he was a colossal bust.  Rating: 1 – Teased with a strong 2007 campaign (125 OPS+, 18 HR), but played just 123 games that year and has posted an 85 OPS+ in 350 games since.

5. Stephen Drew (ARI) – Breezed through the minors in short order with some eye-popping numbers that just haven’t translated into fantasy stardom.  Drew is likely regarded as a hit from a real world standpoint as a slightly above average shortstop with only one truly bad year (2007), but he was supposed to be Hanley Ramirez/Troy Tulowitzki-good for fantasy owners and it just hasn’t happened.  Rating: 2 – Credit for showing up every day (three 150+ GP seasons out of four; fourth still had 135), but not enough fantasy goodness.

6. Francisco Liriano (MIN) – Burst onto the scene in ’06 with a truly brilliant season before succumbing to an arm injury that cost him all of 2007 and has rendered him inconsistent since.  He has the best single season of anyone on the list so far, but because his stock plummeted so quickly after ascent he too is something of a failure.  Rating: 2.5 – As an amateur free agent, he has far exceeded expectations on the field even if he never throws another pitcher again, but in the fantasy realm even the debut can’t keep him earning a weak grade.

7. Chad Billingsley (LAD) – The first one on the list to actually pay legitimate year-over-year dividends for his fantasy owner commensurate with expectations.  Original owners of his can proudly look back at the offers they declined in favor of hanging onto Billingsley as he has developed into a very reliable fantasy starter.  Rating: 5 – Even if you only held him for his first three years (league rules vary on minor leaguers), he rewarded you handsomely with 438 innings of 3.33 ERA, 35 wins and 401 strikeouts.  Given the inexact science of prospecting and incredible volatility of pitching, nobody would turn down that kind of production from a minor league pick.  And if you would, then you have wildly unrealistic expectations from those minor league draft slots.

8. Justin Verlander (DET) – A star who paid off for his owners regardless of your league’s rules when it comes to minor leaguers.  He won the Rookie of the Year out of the gate and followed it up very nicely with an even better year in 2007.  His 2008 year was a disappointment, but the composite of his first three years still yields 589 innings of 4.05 ERA with 46 wins and 470 strikeouts.  Rating: 5 – He had an extra-long shelf life for you to trade him for a big haul with two brilliant seasons to start off his career.

9. Lastings Milledge (NYM) – It’s a surprise he has lasted as long as he has given how poorly he has performed in a significant 1500 at-bat sample at the big league level.  He has been well below average with a career OPS+ of 91 and the only stint he was above average came in his 59 game sample of 2007 with the Mets.  At 26, he will likely get at least one more shot if not two or three, but he has been an unequivocal bust.  Rating: 1 – A two-time top 11 prospect on the BA plus the New York hype machine likely had his original owners fending off sweetheart offers on the reg.

10. Matt Cain (SF) – The crazy thing about the list so far as the amount of failed hitters and the fact that the biggest hits have far and away been starting pitchers.  It just goes to show that with prospecting there is really no safe route.  You just have to do your homework and put yourself in the best position to hit and then pray that you get a little lucky.  Rating: 4 – Dinging him a bit for the W-L records early on even though they aren’t indicative of his skill.  And the ERAs weren’t that great for mixed leagues early on.  That said, minor league rosters are usually found in single leagues (at least that’s been my experience) and he was a no-doubt gem in NL-only leagues even with the low win counts.

To be continued…

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Prospects, Strategy | 3 Comments »

Wednesday: 04.27.2011

Minor Leaguers in Fantasy Baseball, Part 1

The upcoming rookie class in the Kansas City Royals farm system has a chance to be historic given its abundance of blue-chip star power.  In a way, it is already historic after placing nine prospects in Baseball America’s preseason Top 100 list.  Coverage of the minor leagues is growing exponentially year over year and knowledge of the next crop or even next, next crop can give you an edge in fantasy baseball in many different ways. That is important in an era where edges are evaporating left and right.

The easiest way is of course loading your supplemental minor league roster with future stars and waiting for them to emerge.  That sounds easy enough, but it doesn’t always pan out so smoothly unless you can predict the future.  Another not-so-easy issue when it comes to prospects is the handling of them in trades.  How much is potential really worth?  If a team that is building for the future offers you some useful pieces for the 2011 run in exchange for your top 10 guys, do you pull the trigger?

One of the ills of the fantasy community I speak of a lot here is the desire to have the shiny new toy to the detriment of their team whether overspending in an auction or overdrafting in a snake draft.  That affliction is only likely to maintain or even get worse after the 2010 season.

FIRST YEAR PHENOMS

Last year introduced a veritable throng of rookies to the fantasy landscape who made a major impact on races everywhere.  Seven different rookies popped more than 15 home runs (Mike Stanton 22, Tyler Colvin 20, Gaby Sanchez 19, Ike Davis 19, Jason Heyward 18, Buster Posey 18, and Pedro Alvarez 16) , 14 in all reached double digits while eight swiped 10+ bags half of whom topped 15 (Austin Jackson 27, Jose Tabata 19, Ian Desmond 17, Roger Bernadina 16).  There were 11 batters who hit .280 or better in 200+ plate appearances.  Of those, eight had more than 300 plate appearances (Jackson, Starlin Castro, Neil Walker, Posey, Tabata, Chris Johnson, Danny Valencia, Jon Jay and Florida’s Logan Morrison was close at 287).

On the pitching side, we had a 40-save closer (Neftali Feliz), a 13-game winner (Jaime Garcia) nearly 100 strikeouts and a sub-2.00 ERA from a non-closing reliever (Jonny Venters) and six guys with 12+ starts and ERAs at or below 3.50 (Daniel Hudson 2.45, Garcia 2.70, Stephen Strasburg 2.91, Madison Bumgarner 3.00, Jhoulys Chacin 3.28 and Travis Wood 3.51 [cheated a smidge there]).

EMERGING TALENT

And that is just a sampling of the first year players making their mark on the game last year.  There were several other strong performances in one category or another that were instrumental to their fantasy team’s success.

If last year is being dubbed “Year of the Pitcher”, then the subtitle has to be “…and the Rookie” as the overall impact of freshmen was historically awesome.  In other words, it shouldn’t be an expectation year-to-year.  Especially because identifying who will make the rookie impact is no easy feat. 

Just looking at the 25 names I mentioned as superlatives from last year, nine were in the top 20 of Baseball America’s preseason top 100 (including six of the top nine), but the highest rated of the remaining 16 was 62nd (Davis) and 11 didn’t make the list.

To be continued…

This is part one of a series on minor leaguers and their place in fantasy baseball.  This is just an appetizer looking back at last year’s crop, but could that amazing success cloud our judgment of rookies going forward?  Tomorrow I will take a look back at an older draft class to see how it has panned out.  What can we learn from it and how will it help us today as we contemplate offers from leaguemates for the Mike Trouts, Julio Teherans and Jesus Monteros of the world?

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Prospects | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 04.14.2011

Prospect Spotlight: Keyvius Sampson

We already know that anyone pitching in San Diego’s PETCO is instantly a bit better thanks to the spacious dimensions of the yard.  The Padres are grooming some legitimately talented arms that can pitch anywhere to the point that the Petco Push will make them nearly unbeatable.  Most recently it has been ace Mat Latos while Simon Castro and Casey Kelly are rocketing through the minor leagues, but one of the prospect we might soon see destroying hitters regardless of venue is Keyvius Sampson.

The diminutive (6’0) 20-year old is currently a second tier prospect in the Padres organization, but his talent has top 100 potential.  The 2009 4th round pick out of high school struggled with injuries in his first full season last year pitching just 43 innings in 10 starts.  However, he did impress in the limited sample with mid-90s velocity (sits 91-93, touches 95) that drove his gaudy 12.1 K/9.  The secondary stuff is behind the heater right now which is why he’s an org prospect right now as opposed to a top 100 guy, but it’s on the come.

He has good feel for both a curveball and changeup so while neither is terribly consistent just yet, at least both are in the arsenal as opposed to needing that third pitch which would leave him on the fence between starter and reliever.  Some reports have the changeup a bit ahead of the curve, but then others suggest the curve is a bit better.

So far in 2011, it would appear that the three pitches are firing on all cylinders as he has put together two truly excellent starts amassing 19 strikeouts in 11 shutout innings walking just one and allowing a mere two hits.  His first outing included six no hit innings with 10 Ks while Wednesday’s was nearly as impressive with five innings of 2-hit ball with nine Ks and the lone walk he’s allowed.  His next hurdle is proving health.

Elbow soreness got him shutdown last year and it likely stemmed from a tear in his right labrum, but so far he looks 100% healthy.  I think the Padres would just like to see him stay healthy and spend the season in A-Fort Wayne of the Midwest League as opposed to worrying about a promotion as the next step if the California League where pitchers routinely get destroyed regardless of talent.

If he can pitch a full season in A-ball and continue to excel, then he might be in line to skip High-A and go straight to AA-San Antonio for 2012.  The Padres did just that with Latos and Castro, allowing them to skip the pitcher’s hell that is the Cal League.

He is one to keep on the radar from a fantasy standpoint, but this white-hot start is definitely worth noting.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Player Focus, Prospects, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

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Thursday: 03.10.2011

National League Pitching Prospects List

This will serve as the 3/10 Daily Dose

It’s time for my prospect rankings for each league and I want to throw out a few points before I get to today’s National League list:

o   I’m new to prospecting.  This is my first ranking of prospects as I’ve spent the last two years getting better at it before finally diving in this year.  Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, John Sickels, Jason Collette, the BA folks (Jim Callis, Aaron Fitt, John Manuel, etc…) and Adam Foster are all much more seasoned, just to name a handful whose work I enjoy.  I stand 100% behind the work, but this isn’t yet an area of expertise for me.  I wouldn’t necessarily be eager to suggest anything is an area of “expertise” for me, but I’m much more in my element discussing major leaguers right now, but I want to get better at prospecting so it’s time to start ranking.

o   I have seen a handful of these guys live, though the bulk of my experience with them comes from reading extensively and watching video online.

o   There aren’t individual player capsules here, those are all in the Starting Pitcher Guide.

o   The ceiling is a best-case scenario as I see it.

o   The ranking combines the best-case scenario with how likely they are to reach it.  This means someone might project with a higher ceiling, but be less likely to reach it and thus rank below someone with a lower ceiling who is closer to it.

o   This doesn’t slant toward 2011.  It’s all encompassing.  In other words, don’t use it in your re-draft fantasy leagues and get upset with me if Arodys Vizcaino doesn’t throw 120 innings for you later this summer.  It’s meant more for leagues with minor league rosters of any size and dynasty leagues.

RK Player TEAM ETA Ceiling
1 Julio Teheran ATL 2012 1
2 Jameson Taillon PIT 2014 1
3 Mike Minor ATL 2010 2
4 Jarrod Parker ARI 2011 1
5 Shelby Miller STL 2012 1
6 Simon Castro SD 2011 1
7 Jordan Lyles HOU 2011 2
8 Jenrry Mejia NYM 2010 1
9 Randall Delgado ATL 2012 1
10 Tyler Matzek COL 2013 1
11 Zach Lee LAD 2013 1
12 Casey Kelly SD 2012 2
13 Trey McNutt CHC 2012 1/Closer
14 Arodys Vizcaino ATL 2013 1
15 Trevor May PHI 2013 1
16 Stetson Allie PIT 2014 1/Closer
17 Matt Harvey NYM 2013 1
18 Zack Wheeler SF 2013 1
19 Brandon Beachy ATL 2010 3
20 Jarred Cosart PHI 2014 2
21 Christian Friedrich COL 2011 2
22 Tyler Skaggs ARi 2013 2
23 Chad James FLO 2013 2
24 Cory Luebke SD 2010 3
25 Brody Colvin PHI 2014 1
26 AJ Cole WAS 2014 2
27 Chris Withrow LAD 2012 2
28 Rubby de la Rosa LAD 2013 1
29 Brad Hand FLO 2012 3
30 Mike Foltynewicz HOU 2014 2
31 Luis Heredia PIT 2014 1
32 Chad Bettis COL 2014 3
33 Jesse Biddle PHI 2014 2
34 Juan Urbina NYM 2014 2
35 Jay Jackson CHC 2011 3
36 Lance Lynn STL 2011 3
37 Juan Nicasio COL 2013 2
38 Sammy Solis WAS 2012 3
39 Aaron Miller LAD 2012 3
40 Hayden Simpson CHC 2013 2
41 Carlos Martinez STL 2014 1
42 Daryl Thompson CIN 2008 3
43 Ethan Martin LAD 2013 2
44 David Holmberg ARI 2014 3
45 JJ Hoover ATL 2012 3
46 Pat Corbin ARI 2013 3
47 Mark Rogers MIL 2010 3
48 Tyrell Jenkins STL 2015 2
49 Bryan Morris PIT 2011 3
50 Brad Boxberger CIN 2012 3

I’ll be hosting a chat soon to discuss both this and more of the Starting Pitching Guide. Plan for next Thursday, but I’ll definitely post the details ahead of time. In the meantime you can reach me on Twitter or Facebook if you have questions about this list.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Daily Dose, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Off-Season, Predictions, Prospects, Starting Pitchers, Strategy | 7 Comments »

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Wednesday: 03.9.2011

American League Pitching Prospects List

This will serve as the 3/9 Daily Dose

It’s time for my prospect rankings for each league and I want to throw out a few points before I get to today’s American League list:

o   I’m new to prospecting.  This is my first ranking of prospects as I’ve spent the last two years getting better at it before finally diving in this year.  Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, John Sickels, Jason Collette, the BA folks (Jim Callis, Aaron Fitt, John Manuel, etc…) and Adam Foster are all much more seasoned, just to name a handful whose work I enjoy.  I stand 100% behind the work, but this isn’t yet an area of expertise for me.  I wouldn’t necessarily be eager to suggest anything is an area of “expertise” for me, but I’m much more in my element discussing major leaguers right now, but I want to get better at prospecting so it’s time to start ranking.

o   I have seen a handful of these guys live, though the bulk of my experience with them comes from reading extensively and watching video online.

o   There aren’t individual player capsules here, those are all in the Starting Pitcher Guide.

o   The ceiling is a best-case scenario as I see it.

o   The ranking combines the best-case scenario with how likely they are to reach it.  This means someone might project with a higher ceiling, but be less likely to reach it and thus rank below someone with a lower ceiling who is closer to it.

o   This doesn’t slant toward 2011.  It’s all encompassing.  In other words, don’t use it in your re-draft fantasy leagues and get upset with me if Jacob Turner doesn’t throw 120 innings for you later this summer.  It’s meant more for leagues with minor league rosters of any size and dynasty leagues.

RK Player TEAM ETA Ceiling
1 Jeremy Hellickson TB 2011 1
2 Matt Moore TB 2012 1
3 Michael Pineda SEA 2011 1
4 Manuel Banuelos NYY 2012 1
5 Zach Britton BAL 2011 2
6 Jacob Turner DET 2013 1
7 Martin Perez TEX 2012 1
8 Kyle Drabek TOR 2010 2
9 Mike Montgomery KC 2012 1
10 Chris Sale CHW 2010 1/Closer
11 Dellin Betances NYY 2012 2/Closer
12 John Lamb KC 2012 2
13 Chris Archer TB 2012 2
14 Kyle Gibson MIN 2011 2
15 Andy Oliver DET 2010 2
16 Danny Duffy KC 2012 2
17 Drew Pomeranz CLE 2012 2
18 Casey Crosby DET 2013 2
19 Alex Wimmers MIN 2013 2
20 Chris Dwyer KC 2012 2
21 Alex White CLE 2012 2
22 Aaron Crow KC 2012 2
23 Drake Britton BOS 2013 2
24 Alex Torres TB 2012 2
25 Jason Knapp CLE 2012 2
26 Tyler Chatwood LAA 2011 2
27 Alex Colome TB 2013 2
28 Anthony Ranaudo BOS 2013 2
29 Michael Kirkman TEX 2010 3
30 Tijuan Walker SEA 2014 1
31 Tanner Scheppers TEX 2011 2/Closer
32 Robbie Erlin TEX 2013 3
33 Miguel de los Santos TEX 2013 2
34 Ivan Nova NYY 2010 3
35 Jason Thompson TB 2013 2
36 Enny Romero TB 2014 2
37 Andrew Brackman NYY 2012 2/Closer
38 Felix Doubront BOS 2010 3
39 Mauricio Robles SEA 2011 3
40 Zach Stewart TOR 2011 3/Closer
41 Drew Smyly DET 2013 2
42 Andre Rienzo CHW 2014 2
43 Jake Odorizzi KC 2013 2
44 Ian Krol OAK 2013 3
45 Brett Marshall NYY 2013 3
46 Alex Cobb TB 2012 3
47 Aaron Sanchez TOR 2014 2
48 Yordano Ventura KC 2014 2
49 Charlie Furbush DET 2011 3
50 Shawn Haviland OAK 2012 3

I’ll be hosting a chat soon to discuss both this and more of the Starting Pitching Guide.  Plan for next Thursday, but I’ll definitely post the details ahead of time.  In the meantime you can reach me on Twitter or Facebook if you have questions about this list.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Off-Season, Predictions, Prospects, Starting Pitchers, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 01.9.2011

Announcing the 2011 Startng Pitcher Guide

If you have been coming to this site during the baseball off-seasons for any of the last three years, you are probably familiar with my starting pitcher lists.  It started back in 2008 with a top 100 list that was pretty well-received so I brought it back in 2009 expanding it to a top 154.  Again it went pretty well and so I dedicated more time and more space to the 2010 offering that ended up as an 11 part epic covering 264 pitchers when it was all said & done  (BTW, you can check out any of the previous versions in the sidebar to the right).

The 2011 Guide is already well underway and I think it is the best offering yet.  Put together more thoroughly than ever before, this year’s offering goes beyond the individual player capsules to include so much more.  With the 2011 Starting Pitcher Guide in tow, you will be prepared to tackle the hardest part of fantasy baseball regardless of the strategy you want to employ and the league format used in your league.

Introducing the 2011 Starting Pitcher Guide:

  • Over 500 pitchers included
  • Deep Minor League coverage for dynasty/ultra league players
  • Team-by-team breakdown
  • Tiered rankings for mixed and single leagues
  • Essays on Starting Pitcher Strategy
  • Contributions by respected industry members of the fantasy baseball community
  • Categorized Sleepers (Not all surprises are created equally)
  • PDF form for easy reading & printing
  • Detailed Charts & Graphs
  • Free!!!
  • Chance to win a Tim Lincecum or Justin Verlander jersey

As mentioned above, the guide will remain FREE as it has in past years, but this year I will have a PayPal donation button in the sidebar for anyone interested.  The guide is my favorite project every year.  I happily do the work gratis, but a handful of last year’s readers expressed interest in monetarily showing their appreciation for the work and I didn’t have anything set up to accept such a sentiment.

I decided that if I was going to put up anything that would allow even a nickel to come my way for the work then I was going to make the guide even better and much more comprehensive than the previous years.  And for those who do decide to go that route, you will be entered in a drawing for an MLB jersey.  On the line is a gray Tim Lincecum jersey and a white Justin Verlander one.  I will put the email address of anyone donating into the drawing and the first two out will win.

To give you an idea of how the team pages will look, below you can download the Arizona Diamondbacks PDF.  The team page layout is where you will find the analysis of each pitcher as the tiered breakdowns will have just the names & rankings.  Just click the PDF logo to download your free sample.

Stay tuned for more details including release date information.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Off-Season, Predictions, Prospects, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 5 Comments »

Monday: 11.15.2010

AFL Scouting Report – Brandon Belt, SF

I remember seeing Brandon Belt (1B) here at the University of Texas in a handful of games I attended across the 2008 and 2009 seasons.  My thought coming away was always, “How is he not better?”  He definitely looked like a ballplayer and he would have good plays here & there, but terribly inconsistent. He hit a pedestrian-for-college .321 in 124 games but showed exceptional plate discipline (67 BB to 74 K) and a modicum of gap power.  The only thing that really jumped off of the stat page was his 15 steals in 2009.  You just don’t expect 6’5”/195 first basemen to run much at all let alone swipe double digit bags.

To be 100% honest, I kind of forgot him once he left.  It wasn’t until early this summer that I saw he was in the San Francisco system putting together a solid beginning to the season.  Earlier this month I saw him at the Arizona Fall League in Phoenix and came away with a completely different outlook on him.  I learned from some scouts that the Giants completely reworked his swing from the ground up in hopes of better utilizing his plate discipline and extracting the power locked up in that sizable frame.

The results were amazing as he raked through three levels in his first professional season with the majority of his time with San Jose in High-A where hit posted a .383/.492/.628 line in 77 games.  That earned him a promotion to AA where stayed hot to the tune of .337/.413/.623 in 46 games.  He was again promoted, this time to AAA and though the batting average dropped he still went .229/.393/.563 in 13 games.  Be wary of the tiny sample as 3-4 extra hits would’ve taken his average up to the .290-.310 range so the .229 is very misleading.

He has stayed hot this fall (.392/.449/.658 w/14 XBH out of 31) and looked very sharp in the three games I saw him play.  He took what the pitchers gave him whether it meant blooping a ball over the shortstop’s head for a single or smashing a mistake into the gap for a double or working a walk.  His approach is very crisp.  Here is a look at the swings from his at-bats slowed down:

As for Belt moving forward, I see him with a Joey Votto-lite ceiling.  I’m not sure he can consistently hit .320 like Votto, rather closer to .290 perhaps sprinkling a .300+ season in as his luck fluctuates, but he will likely manage .400 on-base percentages with his plate patience.  For power, I have him more in the low 20s while I see Votto capable of stringing together some low 30s seasons together (his high 30s 2010 had some favorable luck behind it).  And the two meet in the road the speed as they are both adept at swiping bags despite their looks suggesting otherwise.

Barring a huge spring, Belt will likely start 2011 at AAA and get some more seasoning, but he can’t be long for the minors if he keeps raking as he did in 2010.  He is primarily a first baseman, but he played a little rightfield in his AAA stint.  If he can adequately play either position, his chances to reach the majors sooner increase as the Giants are far from locked in at first or either corner outfield spot.

Here is another video of his whole at-bats. It is a bit sped up which I didn’t do on purpose, but it happened three different times when I uploaded it so I just left it:

Posted in AFL, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, First Base, Minor Leagues, Off-Season, Player Focus, Predictions, Prospects, Videos | 6 Comments »

Wednesday: 06.23.2010

Baseball by Paul 6/23/10 Show Notes

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Trolling the Wire Pickup

Russell Branyan, 1B, Cleveland Indians – With pitching seemingly popping up out of nowhere throughout the year every season and speed such a niche category that can be heavily impacted with one big trade, the one scarcity on the wire usually ends up being power production. That leads me to today’s Trolling the Wire pickup and it’s Russell Branyan. He of the 174 420 career home runs after cranking his 10th of the season on Tuesday night. I incorrectly said 420 on the show, but that is his RBI total. Apologies for that and thanks to commenter Nick for the clarification.

Most impressive about his double-digit home runs is that he missed the first 21 games of the season and it still took him just 48 games to get there. After hitting 24 home runs in 378 at-bats, Branyan went six seasons with 241 or fewer at-bats. Injuries played a role, but it really seemed that teams were hung up on his poor batting average and focused more on that than his incredible 30-home run power.

Last year Seattle was committed to giving him 500 plate appearances come hell or high water. He played just 116 games, but broke the 500-mark by five plate appearances and delivered as expected with 31 home runs, 76 RBIs and a .251 average. Though he proved the Mariners brass right with their investment, he wasn’t brought back and thus he landed in Cleveland.

He is actually 3 at-bats off of last year’s AB/HR rate of 14, but he is still on pace for 29 in 458 at-bats. Like I said, power is usually tough to come by and yet fantasy owners continue to ignore him. He is owned in just 22% of CBS leagues, 6% of Y! leagues and a paltry 3% of ESPN leagues. Of course that is mainly because ESPN’s standard league is a 4-team mixed league.

But seriously, you’re not going to find any guys on the wire with 20 homer capability from here on out. His batting average isn’t going to help you on any level, but any team can take on ONE of these guys. If you’ve got three or four big time batting average slugs, that is when you start to get in big trouble. If you need power, Branyan should be on your radar.

Articles of the Day

Chris Heisey: Sleeper – Jason Grey (sub. req.)
Prospectus Q&A: Dan Haren – David Laurila
How to Catch Up in ERA in Fantasy Baseball – by Eriq Gardner
Bleacher Report Interview w/Sean Forman of Baseball-Reference.com – by Cliff Eastham (yes, something from Bleacher Report that doesn’t suck!)
2010 Futures Game Rosters – MLB.com
By the Numbers: Rangers Making Their Pitch – by Al Melchior
Baseball’s Best GM – Tom Van Riper
Morgan Ensberg’s Blog – Morgan Ensberg
Jay Bruce Showing Improvement Against Lefties – Joe Pawlikowski
More Nonsense on Time of Game – by Dave Cameron

Bet of the Day

Yikes! I think I might have jinxed Justin Verlander. And since he plays for my favorite team, I might have to avoid putting the Tigers in the Bet of the Day for a while. Actually it was rookie Jay Sborz who totally crapped the bed and let that game get out of hand. Either way, it’s a loss for me. At least Tim Lincecum held up his end of the bargain dominating the Astros giving me a 1-1 record for the day, but I still lost $35 pushing me back into the red at -$19.

By the way, to give you some context on why I chose Verlander at -135 and Lincecum at -140, let’s look at a few games for today. Stephen Strasburg faces the lowly Kansas City Royals and he is at -265. Now, it helps that he is facing Brian Bannister instead of Roy Oswalt like Lincecum did, but Lincecum is better than Strasburg and the Giants are better than the Nationals so I’m jumping on that price every single time.

Furthering the point, Ubaldo Jimenez is at -190 against John Lackey and the Red Sox. That leads me to my pick for today. I’m going to go against Jimenez and take the Red Sox +160. Now I respect how great Jimenez has been this year, but getting one of the top 5 teams in baseball at +160 with a pitcher as accomplished on the mound as Lackey is something you have to do every single day and twice on Sundays.

There are certain teams worth taking any time they are dogs just because they are good enough to beat anyone on any given night and the Boston Red Sox are most certainly one of those clubs. Right now, the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays are probably the only other two. The Philadelphia Phillies were there early in the year, but their stagnant offense has taken them out of that mix. So there’s my pick, I’m going against the grain taking the Boston Red Sox +160 against Ubaldo Jimenez and the Colorado Rockies.

Red Sox +160
Record: 4-4, -$19

Spot Starters

I have to pick on Pittsburgh again after having success with Tommy Hunter against the Buccos on Tuesday. Scott Feldman closes out the series against Jeff Karstens on Thursday and I think he can stay hot. He is 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 16 Ks in 18.2 innings in his last three starts. The Rangers on a big time roll so I might as well stay with the hot hand… or arm as it was.

Today’s pick: Brian Matusz v. Florida Marlins (Ricky Nolasco)
Thursday’s pick: Scott Feldman v. Pittsburgh Pirates (Jeff Karstens)

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Podcast, Predictions, Prospects, Radio Show, Statistical Analysis, Stephen Strasburg, Strategy | 1 Comment »

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