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Monday: 07.18.2011

Third Base Addendum

The one name I kept hearing about in comments or Twitter after the Third Base Building Blocks piece was Pedro Alvarez.  I didn’t forget him; rather I chose not to include him.  For these pieces, I am talking about dealing off the best parts of a losing team (which can still contain a handful of valuable pieces including some star power) to build toward 2012.  As such, I don’t recommend taking on a risk like Alvarez who has had a busted season thus far (and likely will end that way as he isn’t even performing at AAA).

Catchers

First Base

Second Base, Addendum

Shortstop

Third Base

By no means should he be completely written off at 24, but expectations were high (likely too high in a lot of places) after he popped 16 home runs in 95 games last year.  His 31% strikeout rate was a big black eye on his stat line and his home run rate (18% HR/FB) seemed a bit unsustainable, too, considering his groundball lean (46%).  This isn’t 20/20 hindsight either, these things were clear with a quick glance at his profile, but I think the fantasy community (myself included at least to an extent) expected some growth that would counterbalance those issues and make him a viable option at a very weak position.

As I have stressed throughout all of 2011 here the site, growth trends of youngsters are not at all linear and you can’t just expect year-over-year improvements regardless of what the numbers say, especially if the numbers are built from a small sample size like Alvarez’s 95 games.  So that’s why I chose not to include him.  In most league formats, he should be waaaaaaaaay far down on your list of targets if you are trading the best pieces of your current team to acquire parts for next year.  Third base is thin and it would be great to land a foundational piece there alas it is thin because not many of those players exist.

Dynasty teams and deeper NL only teams that have Alvarez on the cheap likely will hold him over for 2012 and I am not against that as he shouldn’t be tossed aside completely just because of an awful 36 game sample during which he hit .208/.283/.304 with two home runs and 10 RBIs in 138 plate appearances.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Keeper Leagues, Player Focus, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Third Base, Trading | 2 Comments »

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Friday: 07.15.2011

Sunday Twidbits: July 10th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s an exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.  Check the sidebar on the right for previous editions of Twidbits.

Ed. note: I didn’t end up doing any STs during the fourth of July weekend so that was a missed week, but here are the ones from last Sunday. 

Det – Since returning from DL on June 13th, Magglio Ordonez is hitting .284/.377/.403 w/2 HR, 9 RBI, 9 R & 9 BB. Now healthy, worth a look.

Det2 – Joaquin Benoit has thrown 19 IP w/1.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 20 K & 5 BB since 5/16 meltdown when he gave up 3 ER pushing ERA to 7.98. Now 4.24.

KC – After a nice first half, Melky Cabrera‘s on pace for .293, 20-20 w/90+ R & RBI; sample is large enough for others to believe so trade ASAP.

KC2 – Melky (cont.) Doesn’t mean he can’t stay good, just that I’d rather trade the risk away in case the career yr doesn’t continue.

Oak – I mentioned Scott Sizemore about a month ago, but still widely available. In OAK: .300/.364/.489 w/4 HR, 14 RBI, 11 R in 90 ABs.

Tex – On the heels of his 7.7 IP of shutout ball w/7 K & 1 BB, it’s time to move the 7-win Matt Harrison ASAP.  Skills don’t support 3.04 ERA.

Tex2 – Not everyone will fall for him based on his ERA, but if you’re diligent you should be able to move him & improve your team.

Col – Speaking of guys to move, Todd Helton has been excellent this yr (.321/.400/.494) w/10 HR, 41 RBI, but at 37 you don’t need the risk.

Col2 – w/guys like Melky, Harrison & Helton, you’re not going to fleece someone, but it’s about shifting the risk & getting out from under it.

Was – Danny Espinosa growing or just a hot month? Thru 6/9: .219/.316/.433 w/10 HR, 5 SB; since: .288/.352(!)/.514 w/6 HR, 7 SB in 111 AB

Tor – Two additions to the Toronto OF are must pickups in most formats. Both Eric Thames & Travis Snider can be 2nd half power sources.

Tor2 – Tor. (cont.) Thames since 6/24 recall: .305/.328/.597 w/4 HR & 7 RBI in 62 AB; Snider .367/.387/.667 w/1 HR, 8 RBI in 30 AB

Cle – Jason Kipnis shouldn’t be stuck in AAA much longer. His .297/.380/.506 line w/11 HR, 51 RBI & 11 SB can help the Indians right away. Speculate.

Hou – Need a cheap MR? Try Astros’ Aneury Rodriguez. Since rejoining pen on 6/15: 12 IP, 2.31 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 10 K, 1 BB & 3 multi-IP apps.

Flo – Since reaching a season high of 4.48 ERA w/his ERA, Ricky Nolasco has a 1.41 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his last 4 starts spanning 32 IP.

Flo2 – Nolasco (cont.) Oddly his skills have dipped during the stretch w/5.3 K/9 & 2.7 K/BB rates. He is maddening, but I still buy his track record.

Flo3 – Would you be interested in someone who has posted a 1.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP & 6.3 K/BB in his last 30 IP? It’s Javier Vazquez. More on him this wk.

SD – Aaron Harang returned from the DL w/6 shutout, no-hit IP along w/6 K & 3 BB. He has 1.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 & 2.2 K/BB in last 40 IP.

SD2 – Harang (cont.) Despite his numbers, he’s on teams in just 57% of CBS lgs, 29% of Y! lgs & 15% of ESPN lgs. Pick him up.

LAD – Get on the Rubby de la Rosa train before it’s too late. Too late in NLs, but he’s most-mixed lg useful: 1.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 17 K last 20 IP

TB – If you can live w/his batting avg, BJ Upton should be a trade target as he paces toward 27 HR, 38 SB, 90 RBI & 83 R. Some will tire .239 AVG

NYY – In the last month, Eduardo Nunez is hitting .328/.369/.519 w/2 HR, 4 SB, 7 RBI & 7 R in 22 G. He will be A-Rod’s primary fill-in for next 4-6 wks.

Bal – Since June 1st, Mark Reynolds has hit .275/.400/.670 w/13 HR, 25 RBI & 22 R. He’s the AL’s Carlos Pena. You have to sit through the cold spells.

Bos – He doesn’t play anywhere near daily, but Josh Reddick is making most of his PT: .422/.471/.778 w/4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 10 RBI & 10 R.

Bos2 – Reddick (cont.) Should be owned in AL-Only & he’s worth a look in deeper mixed as he might be better than a scrub regular.

Atl – You know your season hasn’t been great when a .215 AVG over a month is a massive improvement, but that’s Dan Uggla.

Atl2 – Uggla (cont.) More importantly, he has 8 HR, 18 RBI in that last month & I would buy if the price were discounted & fair.

Phi – Antonio Bastardo is owned in just 51% of CBS lgs, 55% of Y! lgs & 87% of ESPN lgs. He’s been excellent this yr: 10.4 K/9, 2.7 K/BB; buy!

Min – I practically begged yall not to buy into Nick Blackburn. Last 3 starts: 12.15 ERA, 2.54 WHIP, 7 K & 4 BB in 13 IP. ERA up from 3.15 to 4.24

CWS – Gordon Beckham has shown himself as a 2H player so far. Since gm 81 of ’11: .371/.421/.543 in 35 AB; widely available.

CHC – Marlon Byrd is back off of the DL & widely available. He isn’t great, but he can be a batting avg asset in Chicago’s final 72 games.

Pit – Paul Maholm has a 1.79 ERA & 1.11 WHIP in last 45 IP (7 GS), but just 5.0 K/9 & 1.7 K/BB. Fortunate .239 BABIP… sell! Sell now!

Pit2 – Maholm (cont.) Selling him won’t return gold, but you are selling off his inevitable regression. You should be able to get SOMETHING!

Sea – Sea. SPs are 44, 45, 46 & 51 out of 51 in run support among qual’d AL SPs; Doug Fister‘s 3.09 is the worst in AL by 0.8 (Dan Haren).

LAA – In the last calendar month, Torii Hunter is hitting .338/.377/.523 w/3 HR, 11 RBI & 9 R in 19 G. Could be primed for a solid 2nd half.

Cin – Jay Bruce is known for Tulowitzkian hot (& cold) streaks & he just might be starting one: .444/.583/1.056 w/3 HR, 6 RBI in his last 5 G.

Cin2 – Bruce (cont.) He had hit .182/.257/.273 w/1 HR & 5 RBI in 99 AB spanning the month before his latest mini-streak.

Mil – Only one Milwaukee SP has an ERA below 5.00 so far in July (Zack Greinke, 4.50) which makes their 5-6 schedule something of a surprise.

Mil2 – Yovani Gallardo has a very appealing stat line yielding an xFIP (3.47) more than 1/2 a run lower than his 4.08 ERA. Buying opportunity?

Ari – Barring changes to the rotation, Josh Collmenter‘s next 5 starts will come against tms he’s already faced (MIL,COL,LAD,SF & HOU).  (cont.)…

Ari2 – Collmenter has a 2.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP & 5.3 K/9 in 27 IP v. the 5; this will be a big test to see how “real” his early success has been.

StL – Chris Carpenter has a 2.89 ERA & 1.15 WHIP in his last 53 IP. The 5.9 K/9 isn’t great and he’s still allowing lots of hits; tread carefully.

NYM – Why isn’t Jonathon Niese on more tms? E-13%, Y!-34%, C-67% despite great overall #s & a 3.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP & 8.6 K/9 the last 2 mo (63 IP)

SF – Ryan Vogelsong has a 3.38 ERA in last 3 starts, but an ugly 1 K/BB w/13 ea. (6.2 per 9) & 1.9 HR/9; overall #s might still appeal, but hurry.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Statistical Analysis, Stats, Strategy, Sunday Twidbits | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 07.13.2011

The Last 365

While preparing for an upcoming season, analysts will often point to a player’s second half of the previous year as an indicator of future performance, for better or worse.  Depending on if and how far that player’s team goes into the playoffs, there will be a five to six month layoff between games for all players which cuts into the reliability of second half performances as a lot can happen in that kind of timeframe.

You also have to consider the fact that a second half itself is a small sample so any three month sample shouldn’t be used as a perfect guide.  Someone might simply wear down in the dog days of summer (Brennan Boesch) making them look worse than their true talent level.  Conversely, a player may fall into some unexpected playing time not seen in the first half and take the league by storm because they don’t have “a book” on him (Jed Lowrie).

As we wrap up the 2011 All-Star Break (the mercilessly long ASB… Must. Watch. Baseball!), we can now look back on the last calendar year taking the 2010 second half and matching it up against the 2011 first half to see if using the former as a guide would have better prepared us for the latter on any level.  Remember that a lot of people point to Jose Bautista’s 2009 September (10 HR in 30 G) as a sign toward his 2010 breakout into superstardom.  Of course, he still went undrafted in just about every mixed league so it is more of retro-fitting the September narrative to match up with the ’10 breakout, but you get the point.  Today, we will look at the home run charts.

2010 2H HR

J.Bautista 30, A.Pujols 21, P.Konerko 19, T.Tulowitzki 18,

C.Granderson, D.Uggla, C.Gonzalez, M.Stanton 17,

A.Rodriguez, A.Dunn, M.Teixeira, M.Cabrera 16,

J.Thome, A.Ramirez, A.Beltre, D.Wright, L.Scott 15

The bulk of this list contains no-brainer power hitters.  You aren’t looking at this list and making major adjustments on most of these guys up as you already expected them to be amongst the power leaders.  However, there are some standouts that might have caught your eye in some winter preparation to make you question whether it was a sign of things to come or merely a hot stretch to close out the season.

Namely that would be Curtis Granderson.  A lot of was expected of Granderson once he was traded to the Yankees.  He was leaving Comerica Park for the short porch in Yankee Stadium that favored lefties.  He was coming off of a career-high 30 home run season and while his batting average issues would temper his value, he was at least expected to pop another 30 home runs if not more.

He labored through an uninspiring April (2 HR, .687 OPS) and then played just five games in May because of injury.  He was pushed to the outer edges of the radar for some because of the slow start so perhaps his 22 home runs from June on went a bit unnoticed even as he hit nine with a .958 OPS in 29 September games.  He had an equal number of at-bats home and away (233) clubbing a home run every 16.6 at-bats at home while hitting one every 23.3 on the road.  In other words, Yankee Stadium had its desired effect on Granderson but his slow start masked it a bit.

Fast forward to today and Granderson has been a fantasy superstar as he has hit 25 home runs in just 87 games thanks to some excellent production against southpaws (9 HR, .596 SLG), something he had struggled to do in the past.  While he has continued to take advantage of his home ballpark (a home run every 14.4 AB), it is his road production that has really driven the unexpected surge (a home run every 11.9 AB).

Granderson is someone who proved the analysts right in 2010 by increasing his power production when he was playing, but since his whole numbers were down, it wasn’t fully recognized.  He had the kind of second half that analysts look for as an indicator for success the following season, yet again it wasn’t latched onto as his average draft position (ADP) dropped from 48 in 2010 to 74 in 2011.

Here is a look at the home run leaders in the last calendar year:

LAST 365 DAYS

J.Bautista 62; C.Granderson 42; M.Teixeira, P.Konerko 41; A.Pujols 39;

M.Stanton, J.Bruce 36; T.Tulowitzki, M.Cabrera, P.Fielder 35;

A.Beltre, D.Ortiz, M.Kemp 34; M.Reynolds 33; D.Uggla, R.Howard 32;

R.Weeks, C.Gonzalez, N.Cruz, A.Ramirez 30; R.Braun, A.Gonzalez 30

Of the 22 players listed on the year-long leaderboard, 13 are repeats from the second half leaderboard.  What does that mean exactly?  I am not sure it means anything.  Like I said earlier, a lot of the names on that second half list are consistent power producers that we would expect to show up on any leaderboard of home runs that took a legitimate sample of at-bats into account.

For those not on the second half board, here are their 2010 second half home run totals:

D.Ortiz, R.Howard, R.Weeks 14; A.Gonzalez 13;

P.Fielder, M.Kemp, M.Reynolds, R.Braun 12; N.Cruz 11

None of the nine listed above struggled in the second half of last year, they just weren’t superlatives across the league.  Thus it isn’t terribly surprising to see them amongst the best over the last calendar year as they have remained consistent in their production from last year’s second half to this year’s first.

While the second half home run leaderboard may have helped you notice that Granderson did in fact perform as many expected (at least in terms of home run rate as well as the Yankee Stadium boost), it could have also led you astray had you gone a bit further and used it as a handy guide for 2011 breakouts.  To wit, here are some of the second half home run leaders that just missed my cutoff of 15 (2011 HR totals):

A.Hill (4) 14; P.Burrell (7), R.Raburn (8), P.Alvarez (2) 13; J.Drew (4), C.Lee (7) 12

This list contains some names that some fantasy managers had pegged for a big 2011 season and they have subsequently been wildly disappointed.  Pedro Alvarez is the latest shining example of the volatility of prospects.  Meanwhile Ryan Raburn had a big second half for the second straight season only to once again flop in the first half of the follow season.  Both were tabbed at 2011 sleepers at many outlets.  They have been asleep alright… (I’ll be here all week, try the veal).

If there was one thing you could expect from Aaron Hill, it was supposed to be power.  Actually it has turned out to be some speed (11 stolen bases), but the rest of the stat line is so remarkably underwhelming that he is barely worth it and frankly, I am surprised to see that he is still on 66% of the teams at ESPN.  J.D. Drew is another guy who has his flaws (mainly staying healthy), but you at least expect him to produce when he is playing.  Alas at 35, the injuries may finally be catching up (.646 OPS in 218 AB) rendering him virtually useless (3% owned in ESPN leagues).

The takeaway from all of this, if there is one, is that there still aren’t any shortcuts when it comes to analysis.  You need to dig into the second or third level to see if a sample of play had predictive value one way or another.  An elite second half can either be an indicator of big things to come or an isolated three month sample of quality play with no predictive.  Be careful not to make more or less of a second half sample just because it fits the narrative you are trying to tell.  The other takeaway would be that Bautista is amazing (duh!).  His 62 home runs over the last calendar year is something else.  That early-to-mid 2000s production right there in a pitching-heavy environment.

Later this week, I will show some other leaderboards over the last 365 days in some other categories.  Most will be just for fun to look at while others may be against the second half in 2010 backdrop we looked at today to see if there were any pending breakouts poking their heads out at us last August & September.

Hope you made it through the All-Star break… time for some more baseball!

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Statistical Analysis, Stats, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 07.8.2011

Mike Trout Called Up!

He’s here!!!  Today the Los Angeles Angels announced that Mike Trout will be called up to replace the injured Peter Bourjos.  The stay could be temporary for the 19-year old from AA, but they will definitely give him some at-bats right away to see how their uber-prospect handles the jump.  Trout tore through the Midwest and Cal Leagues last year as an 18-year old, skyrocketing up prospect boards in the process.  His season of .341/.428/.490 with 28 doubles, nine triples, 10 home runs and 58 stolen bases landed him first or second on every board this preseason.  Only Bryce Harper surpassed him on some boards.

That is the intro to my write-up on Trout over at RotoHardball.com and you can click here for the rest.  Instead of parroting my thoughts verbatim, you might as well just head over there to read my take as well as catch up on all the other great content we have at the site.

The one thing I will add that didn’t format well over at RH was a chart of the 19-year old hitters who have come up in the last 20 years.  This might give you an idea of what to expect from Trout.

As amazing of a prospect as he is, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t fare well right away, especially after skipping AAA.  Look at the names on that list, except for Karim Garcia they are all star players and only Edgar Renteria did well.  BJ Upton wasn’t awful, especially considering how much his fantasy managers would love a .258 average these days.  Temper your expectations on the shiny new toy.  Perhaps the best bet if you do get him is to flip him.  If you’re in contention and you have him in a keeper league, you can fetch an absolute mint for him and severely improve your title hopes.  Re-draft league returns won’t be as significant, but you can cash in the ticket for an improvement to your team.  Sure it might pan out for that team, but you might also get something for a guy who could be back in AA or AAA by the time the All-Star break is over.

EDIT: It appears on Baseball-Reference.com has Renteria as debuting at age 19.  They have his birth year as 1976 while every other outlet I have seen has him at 1975.  Of course this only strengthens the point about 19 year olds struggling.  When you lop of his debut, the remaining six have a .228/.281/.390 line in 825 plate appearances.  Thanks to Paul Bourdett for pointing out the inconsistency of BRef & other outlets to me on Twitter.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Prospects, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 07.7.2011

Keeper Building Blocks: Third Base

If you thought things were sparse elsewhere on the infield, wait until you see what third base is offering for potential keeper building blocks.  Before the season started, I saw third base as easily the second-worst position on the diamond behind shortstop.  There has been some nice improvement in the middle tiers of shortstop to the point where you could reasonably make a case that the two have now flip-flopped.

If it weren’t for Jose Bautista qualifying at third base, the position would be in really big trouble.  It is still a troubled wasteland primarily because it started thin and has since been ravaged by injuries.  Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo  Sandoval, Martin Prado, Scott Rolen, David Freese and Placido Polanco have all missed time due to injury this year.  All but Polanco have hit the disabled list, while Polanco is currently day-to-day with back pain that has been troubling him for a month and has no doubt impacted his modest output this year (.274 batting average, a category you draft him to excel in).

Catchers

First Base

Second Base, Addendum

Shortstop

I came up with six potential candidates, though one will take an arm and a leg (literally) to pry away from a leaguemate:

Jose Bautista (TOR, 30) – Yes, this of course is the arm & a leg guy.  He is probably no more than $10 in any league depending on how free agents are acquired and how their contracts work and when you couple that incredible price with the fact that he has been arguably the best player in the game (Matt Kemp’s speed might put him #1), you have a helluva price tag.  Unless it requires several of the keepers you were planning on for 2012, it might not be a bad idea to pay the hefty price to get Bautista.  It would take a unique set of circumstances to acquire him from a leaguemate, but given how cheap he should be in keeper leagues, you have to take a shot.

Pablo Sandoval (SF, 24) – The Kung Fu Panda is back after a rough season in 2010 and if it weren’t for his missed time on the disabled list, he probably would have made a serious run at the starting third base gig for the NL All-Star team.  He should still be cheap from any initial contract in your league, but if for some reason he was on the open market this March, he is probably still at a fair keeper price given the reaction to his modest output last year (.268/.323/.409 with 13 HR, 63 RBI).  The most games he can play this year is 121 and yet he is still on pace for 21 home runs, not bad considering he hit 25 in 153 back in 2009.

Adrian Beltre (TEX, 32) – He was coming off of a down season in 2009 which caused his value to be depressed even as he headed into Boston last year.  Thus he could be on a nice contract in your league.  This won’t apply to all leagues, but I had to include him just in case.  He will be a bit older, but he’s got great power at a scarce position.  That’s keeper-worthy.

Martin Prado (ATL, 27) – Nothing against Prado, but when he is our fourth potential keeper at third base, you know it is thin.  He has definite value, but it is tied to his batting average which can suffer in a year due to luck.  I just think we might have the next Placido Polanco on our hands, which isn’t bad, but hardly a great building block.  Remember, Polanco had back-to-back double digit home run seasons at 27 & 28 years old sandwiched by seasons of nine at 26 and 29.

Mike Moustakas (KC, 22) – In a dynasty league, he probably moves up a spot or two on this list, but even when building a keeper list during a lost season, I’m still gunning to win the very next season so I have him down here because there is no certainty he will be all that fantasy relevant in his second season.  We saw ups & downs in his minor league career and I suspect we will see the same as a big leaguer so at 23 next year, we might see more growing pains than fantasy-worthy production.  But like I said, dynasty leaguers who can keep him forever might want to invest in him over a Beltre or Prado.

Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE, 22) – Even though he will be the same age as Mous next year, I think he will be more fantasy relevant, but his ceiling isn’t as high.  He doesn’t profile to have game-changing power and of course there is still the fact that he cannot hit lefties worth a lick.  He is someone to look at for AL-Only and deep mixed league players.  I don’t think he is someone you want to invest in as a keeper for 10 & 12-team mixed leagues right now.

I don’t think I forgot any deserving candidates, but please feel free to let me know if you think I have made any egregious omissions.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Keeper Leagues, Player Focus, Rankings, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Third Base, Trading | 5 Comments »

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Monday: 07.4.2011

Hail Mary Team, Part 4

Now we take to the mound with the Hail Mary Team.  As I mentioned in the introduction piece, fixing rate stats (ERA & WHIP most commonly) is harder than piling up counting stats.  The more the innings pile up, the harder it is to make a significant move in ERA or WHIP without Justin Verlander-in-June-type numbers from a pitcher or three (0.92 ERA, 0.71 WHIP in 49 IP).  OK maybe you don’t need guys to throw that well, but you need some heavy innings of quality work to move the needle.

Of course that also depends on how stratified your league’s ERA & WHIP standings are to begin with and given how plentiful pitching has been this year, they might be pretty tight top to the bottom.  All that said, the guys on this list have the kind of skills to lower their ERA and WHIP totals by a decent margin over the second half, but the results haven’t been up to expectations so they can likely be had at a discount.  This group will contain a lot of strikeout upside and hopefully their continued display of strong skills will start to net the results they deserve leading in turn to wins along with several innings of quality ERA and WHIP.

Catchers, First Basemen & Second Basemen

Shortstops & Third Basemen

Outfield

STARTING PITCHER:

Zach Greinke (MIL) – The ultimate Hail Mary Teamer, Greinke should be your first target for pitching to see if that ugly 5.66 ERA can bring in a heavy discount.  For a lot of owners it won’t (as they realize he has been better than a 5.66), but even if he comes with a small discount he is worth it.  His skills have been amazing (11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.4 K/BB), but he has been brutalized by absurd LOB% (55%) and HR/FB (15%) rates that just can’t continue or at least I certainly wouldn’t bet on them continuing.  His .341 BABIP is a career high, too.  That could be equal parts his 24% line drive rate (highest since 2006) and a poor infield defense.  Adding it all together, there just seems to be no way that he can continue to post the base skills he is and yet carry an ERA that high.  Perhaps you can turn your best hitter or pitcher into Greinke plus something else to start your Hail Mary Team.

Matt Garza (CHC) – I was worried about Garza heading into Wrigley especially with an escalating flyball rate the last few years.  Without a skills change, I thought he would get knocked around for plenty of home runs, especially on afternoons when the wind was blowing out.  Alas, he made a major skills change.  His flyball rate has gone from 45% down to 28%(!) with his groundball rate rising in concert from 36% to 50%.

However his work with men on base has ailed him this year thus what should have been the makings of a career year (2.87 xFIP, 2.98 FIP) has resulted in modest improvements from a 3.91 ERA last year to 3.77 this year.  There is room for more and Garza is one to target.  His current ERA won’t earn you a clearance price via trade, but a 3.77 doesn’t quite get his current manager what it used to either so don’t buckle into your trade partner’s demands without some push & pull.

Chris Carpenter (STL) – Too bad I didn’t think of this strategy a few weeks ago because Carpenter would have been a perfect selection back in mid-June.  However he has started to turn a corner with back-to-back one run outings in seven and nine innings, respectively, lowering his ERA from 4.47 to an even 4.00.  Of course that is still a decent bit below average as he has just a 90 ERA+ for the season.

His hit rate has leapt from 8.2 to 9.8 H/9 this year.  He allowed 8+ hits nine times all of last year and has already matched that total in 2011.  He has doubled his outings of 10+ hits allowed from two to four.  While part of it may be the downgrade from Brendan Ryan to Ryan Theriot at shortstop, a bigger part is a massive surge in line drive rate to 24%, a three year high.  His groundball rate has dipped 5% as a result, too.  His skills suggest an ERA of about three and a quarter so there’s still room to go even in the midst of his current mini-hot streak.

Ricky Nolasco (FLO) – Is there a more maddening pitcher in fantasy baseball?  After slightly outperforming his skills in 2008 (3.52 ERA/3.69 xFIP), he has massively underperformed against his skills the last two and a half years.  ERAs of 5.06, 4.51 and this year’s 4.08 have left us scratching our heads standing next to xFIP totals of 3.23, 3.37 and 3.50.  Like Carpenter, Nolasco has seen a dramatic rise in his line drive percentage up to a career high of 25% after sitting 19-22% for his career.

The dip in strikeouts from 8.4 to 6.5 is a bit alarming, too, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio remains very strong at 3.1 so he should still be better than a 4.08 ERA.  I am still willing to bet on a guy who had three straight years of 4.4 K/BB spanning 555 innings coming into this year, especially if I’m going all-in on a season that hasn’t panned out as initially planned.  The Hail Mary Team is obviously about embracing risk, it is really the only way for the strategy to succeed.  Well the risk panning out is the only for it to succeed, but the first step is not being afraid of risk.

Edwin Jackson (CWS) – I have put him in my spot starter picks several times this year.  His talent is starting to shine through more often than in years past, but the results haven’t yet caught up as his ERA (4.24) is nearly a run higher than his xFIP (3.28).  He is yet another guy suffering from an outlier line drive rate as his is also at a career high of 25% after just once topping 19% since he became a full-time starter back in 2007 (21%, 2008).  So if that evens out this year, his hit rate will come down from 10.1 and with it the WHIP will drop and his results will start to resemble his true skill level.  I find that a lot of fantasy managers don’t really like Jackson so if you present them with an opportunity to remove him from their team, they may happily oblige at less than full value.

Mat Latos (SD) – We saw the kind of heights that Latos can reach last year and there aren’t any glaring issues in his profile that suggest he can’t get back there again this year.  The flyball rate has ticked up from 40% to 46% while the groundball rate is down from 45% to 40%, but that hurts a lot less in his home ballpark and a few others within his division where it is reasonable to assume he will find himself pitching throughout the second half.  He isn’t pitching like the sub-3.00 ERA guy from 2010, but you don’t need him to in order for him to be worth your while in a trade.  Test the waters on him in your league and if the Latos manager in your league is in a tight ERA battle, maybe you have someone with a shiny ERA he would be more interested in.

Chad Billingsley (LAD) – Billingsley appears to be coming out of his funk a bit having lowered his ERA from 4.65 on June 15th to 4.15 after Sunday night’s start.  Of course that is still below average with an 87 ERA+ and a buying opportunity is there even if the price hasn’t dropped significantly.  His skills remain rock solid with very little movement in his strikeout and walk rates since 2007. If he can just avoid those full-on implosion starts (6+ ER), he should be able to chisel his ERA down to 3.50ish by season’s end if not better.

Max Scherzer (DET) – Even if he isn’t on your team this year, you probably have an idea of how maddening his season has been.  And now 18 starts in, I can’t imagine a fantasy manager sticking to his guns and making someone pay full price for a 4.90 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.  Now he might just say “I have come this far and I’m going to stick it out,” and if so you just move on.  But more likely you can find something even on your down-trodden team that will entice his manager to make a move at something well under preseason costs.

For your end, you are getting a guy who is still posting very strong skills (8.1 K/9, 2.5 K/BB), but one who has been bitten hard by gopheritis (1.4 HR/9, 12% HR/FB).  Not only have his home run and home run per flyball rates hit career highs, but he is also allowing a career high 44% flyballs making it that much worse.  The Tigers fired their pitching coach on Sunday and perhaps newly promoted bullpen coach Jeff Jones can figure out what Rick Knapp couldn’t and get Scherzer back on his 2010 second half track.

Brandon Morrow (TOR) – In what was supposed to be another step forward if not a full on breakout season, Morrow has actually regressed in 2011 despite maintaining his 11.0 K/9 and lowering his walk rate from 4.1 to 3.6 BB/9.  Alas his efforts with men on base have continued to plague him as his LOB% has dropped from 69% in 2010 to 65% this year.  The talent is in there and we saw last August what it can deliver as he went 30 innings with a 2.97 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 14.7 K/9 en route to a 3-0 record in five starts.  Roll the dice on that potential without question, especially in a redraft league where you are taking a shot.

Edinson Volquez (CIN) – Another live arm (9.3 K/9) with an ERA that seems to belie his true skill (5.65 ERA, 3.97 xFIP).  A lot of his problems have been tied to home runs.  His insane 18% HR/FB has done a number on his ERA and even if that just evens out to his career mark of 12% (as opposed to league average around 9-10%), his ERA will feel it in a big way.  His ownership rates are way down so he is guy you might be able to get without a trade.  Hell, he may be a big reason you are in this place to begin with in which case just hold on.  The talent is there.  Let’s see if it comes to fore in the second half.

Brett Anderson (OAK) – Originally we were worried he would need Tommy John Surgery, but that appears to be out of the question now.  His return this year is still a question, but we’re throwing a Hail Mary here, so if a contender in your league has him, he might opt to get out from under that risk and get someone into his rotation who is actually pitching every fifth day.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Redraft Leagues, Statistical Analysis, Stats, Strategy, Trading | 3 Comments »

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Monday: 07.4.2011

Hail Mary Team, Part 3

Yikes, let’s get the rest of this Hail Mary Team out so you can go trade for the guys.  The first parts have unleashed a Midas touch on some of these guys and may have taken them out of contention for a discount.  Mark Reynolds and Hanley Ramirez both had multi-home run games after being mentioned (not implying causation… merely a coincidence) and Reynolds actually hit three over the weekend.

One of the outfielders I had slated for the team has also gone off as Nelson Cruz blasted home runs on Friday and Sunday.  His Friday performance also included six RBIs.  Perhaps his team manager will focus less on that mini-hot streak and more on the .245 batting average and sub-.300 on-base percentage and not charge you the full price for his services.

Catchers, First Basemen & Second Basemen

Shortstops & Third Basemen

Let’s see what else the outfield offers the Hail Mary Team.

OUTFIELD:

Cruz (TEX) – He is on pace for 38 home runs now so he isn’t exactly tanking his manager’s team, nor was he before his recent little outburst, but the 95 RBI pace and aforementioned weak batting average & on-base percentage totals might allow you to squeeze him out in a trade for less than full value.  As I have mentioned in earlier parts of this series, with guys like this it isn’t necessarily that I think you can get them dirt cheap rather you can trade your prime asset for him AND someone else which results in a net gain for your team.  So please don’t see Cruz or Martin Prado included on these lists and think that I value them the same as Adam Dunn and Dan Uggla. 

Carl Crawford (BOS) – He was just getting going when he hit the disabled list.  I cannot imagine how frustrating that must be for him after signing the massive contract and joining the Red Sox this offseason.  He went on the DL on June 17th, the previous month he was hitting .298 with five home runs and 21 RBIs.  The speed was still noticeably absent (just 2 SBs in that hot stretch), but the four category production made it easier to forget the lack of speed.

There is almost always at least some type of discount when trading for guys on the DL so strike as soon as possible with Crawford.  When he was hitting like trash in April and May, no one was selling low on him because he was still playing daily and everyone believed he would come out of it (and he was starting to), but when a guy is no longer putting up daily numbers (even if they are below expectations) prices tend to drop.

Jayson Werth (WAS) – Many people believed that Washington would regret the seven year deal to Werth at some point, no one thought that point would be year 1.  The fact that they have been poking around .500 despite their $100-million-dollar-man carrying a .709 OPS is quite impressive.  In the last three years when he emerged as a big time player that allowed him to get such a contract, he was always good throughout the year essentially putting up balanced halves.  In other words, he doesn’t wear down so hopefully the Nats start to see some dividends returned on that hefty contract with a big second half out of Werth.

He is on pace for his third 20 HR-20 SB season in his last four (27 HR, but only 13 SB last year) so he hasn’t been a complete shlub despite what the batting average might tell you.  A complete reversal in groundball-flyball distribution and a 10% rise of infield flyballs have been the culprits in his .223 average & .265 BABIP.  Add in that he has hit .155 with just 6 RBIs in the last month and there is no way a fantasy manager can realistically ask for anything near full price halfway through the season.  At least not with a straight face.

Jason Heyward (ATL) – Skip this one in keeper leagues, he could be hitting .051 and I don’t think a keeper league manager would bail on him.  He gets a small pass for some time missed, but a .228 batting average and just 20 RBIs & 30 runs scored in the 62 games he has played has to be leaving his managers wanting more.  His scant track record isn’t enough to blindly believe he will have a big second half, perhaps it is simply a sophomore slump for the 21 year old, but if you can get a talent like him at a significant discount, it is worth taking a shot on especially in what is an otherwise lost season for your ballclub.

Corey Hart (MIL) – Hart can catch fire and stay hot for a while as he has posted halves of 21 and 15 home runs within the last three years.  The big reason he has been kind of “blah” so far this year is that his groundball-flyball profiles have flipped much like Werth’s.  He is a career 41% flyball hitter down at 35% this year meanwhile he’s a career 40% groundball hitter who was at 38% last year, but has rocketed up to 47% this year.  If he can get that figured out, he can have a huge second half with a mid-teens home run total if not something pushing 20.

Alex Rios (CWS) – He was quite overrated coming into this year when consider that his 2010 season was essentially a blistering hot May and five mediocre months during which he topped .760 OPS just once (April) and slid from month-over-month from that .760 “perch” in June down to .645 by September after the hot May.  Essentially to buy in on Rios is to bet that one of his summer months will match or at least approach his eight home run, 1.106 OPS May from last year.  Of course the way he is going this year, he would kill for a .700-something OPS month as his high for 2011 is .685 in June.

Magglio Ordonez (DET) – He finally looks healthy again after the nasty ankle injury last July and what that means is a .300+ batting average with plenty of runs driven in.  He won’t be a huge power source, but at 37 you aren’t expecting him to at this point.  I have been really impressed watching him the last few days and I feel confident that he is ready to contribute to the middle of that strong Detroit lineup.  He should be on the waiver wire of more than a few leagues and I would consider rostering him and getting in now before he is mid-hot streak.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Outfield, Player Focus, Redraft Leagues, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trading | 1 Comment »

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Saturday: 07.2.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 13 The Weekend

Just a quick rundown of the weekend picks.  Some of you may have already noticed that I had James McDonald slotted in for Saturday on the Trolling sidebar entry.

One note from Friday’s game, if you need an arm and have a roster space with the rash of DL moves late this week, go with Rich Harden.  Apart from last year’s meltdown in Texas, he has been Bedardian (who just hit the DL) in that it’s always been about health, not talent.  He looked pretty good on Friday going six strong with six strikeouts and most importantly ZERO walks against Arizona.  He will be in next week’s Trolling I’m sure because he will still be around in most leagues even after the big start.

For this weekend we have:

SATURDAY:

McDonald (PIT @ WAS) – I have been going with McDonald a lot lately and he hasn’t disappointed and I see no reason not to stick with him against Washington.

Andrew Miller (BOS @ HOU) – He has been usable in his first two games, also against weak offenses, so let’s utilize him against another weak opponent and then see how he fares about better competition.  Facing San Diego, Pittsburgh and Houston is not a bad way to ease back into the big leagues.  I remain heavily skeptical on him in general, but this feels like a safe spot.

Cory Luebke (SD @ SEA) – Recently added to the rotation, Luebke has put up some great numbers this season, but most of them come out of the bullpen.  I wouldn’t expect a 10 K/9 as a starter, but he should still be pretty useful.  Seattle is still an offense to pick on so let’s take advantage here.

Doug Fister (SEA v. SD) – Both ends of this game look like nice plays given that the offenses are two of the more inept in baseball.  Fister has been really sharp this year and lately he has been going really deep into game.  He has gone 7 + innings in eight of nine and 8 innings in five of those.  He can’t get any love from fantasy managers despite a strong first half.

SUNDAY:

Gavin Floyd  (CHW @ CHC) – It has been a rollercoaster ride with Floyd this year, but let’s see if he can string two nice starts together after seven strong in Colorado earlier this week.  I wish he was striking out a few more (6.1 K/9 in 101 IP), but the 2.6 K/BB is impressive and this is a guy who can get on a run for weeks at a time.  He could be a pivotal arm down the stretch not only for the White Sox, but for your fantasy team.

Freddy Garcia (NYY @ NYM) – I wouldn’t bet on Garcia keeping that 3.28 ERA all year at all, but he can hang on in this venue against this offense.  If you are in a league where you own him, you might want to look to flip him as soon as possible.  Admittedly, you’re not going to fetch a mint, but that’s OK because regression is going to be a bitch and if you can get something of consequence to get out from under that risk, it will be a net win by October.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 07.1.2011

Hail Mary Team, Part 2

If you missed part 1 of the Hail Mary Team that explained what it is and outlined the catchers and first basemen, feel free to check it out here.  Continuing the team today, here are the shortstops and third basemen.

SHORTSTOP:

Hanley Ramirez (FLO) – Going obvious again, but of course that doesn’t mean it is the wrong choice or that he won’t be discounted.  We are now halfway through the season and Ramirez is toting a .325 SLG after never dipping .475 in his five years and three of which were .540 or better; if his fantasy manager isn’t offering any sort of discount at this point then he is delusional and you are better off looking elsewhere.  That doesn’t mean you are going to get him for some shlub off the wire, but no way should you send back first round talent, either, not at this point.  Why should you want him?  Track record.  It is extensive as he was no worse than the third pick overall on everybody’s board this spring.  You are simply betting on a rebound, hoping that the time off (he isn’t headed to his third straight All-Star Game, that’s for sure) clears his head and recharges the battery.

Rafael Furcal (LAD) – Another option is Furcal who is currently out on a rehab assignment returning from an oblique injury (isn’t that what everyone is returning from these days?).  The presence of prospect Dee Gordon isn’t expected to block Furcal as the Dodgers have discussed moving him to second base and leaving Gordon at short.  Furcal is obviously a risk as he played 97 games last year and just 17 (bad ones) this year.  He’s getting up there in age for a middle infielder at 33, but he was sharp in his limited sample last year hitting .300 with eight home runs and 22 stolen bases.  He could give the Dodgers lineup and your lineup a spark if he is back at 100%.

Also keep in mind: Jimmy Rollins.  The pickins are slim at short if Ramirez isn’t available at a discount so we turn to former stars who have turned from Google into penny stocks.

THIRD BASE:

Martin Prado (ATL) – He would be one of the more costly team members on this list as he hasn’t been a complete abomination this year, rather he has only slightly underperforming expectations until going out with an injury (a staph infection… gross).   He is set to start his rehab assignment next week so time is probably running out for any sort of discount on him.  If you have a solid asset to trade, maybe the Prado manager also has another Hail Mary Teamer and you can package those two for your more worthy asset in turn plugging two holes for yourself.

Adrian Beltre (TEX) – Let me be clear here, Beltre isn’t quite in the class of the rest of this team.  He is on pace for 27 home runs and 111 RBIs, but his .259 AVG and .751 OPS might have a Beltre lamenting a bit after his .321 and .919 performances in Boston last year.  They would be foolish to have any issues with his performance, but it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me either.  If his team’s manager in your league has Beltre and another player from the list, you could flip one of what is likely just a few prized assets for Beltre and someone else.  Again since you are deep in the standings, you likely have several holes on your team so essentially you would be spreading the talent and creating a net gain by moving your best or second best player for Beltre and someone else to remove that zero from your lineup.

Also keep in mind: Mark Reynolds.  He’s actually on track to essentially match his 2010 season, but the team he is on in your league can’t afford the batting average hit, he would be a nice fit for a Hail Mary squad.  He should be a huge power source over the course of the second half and could reasonably hit 20 home runs, but should be good for no fewer than 15.

Next: Outfielders (OF & SP will be split into separate pieces as there will be several for each)

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Redraft Leagues, Shortstop, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Third Base, Trading | 2 Comments »

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Thursday: 06.30.2011

The Hail Mary Team, Part 1

As of right now 13 others are at 82 games, 11 teams are at the exact halfway point (81 games) and the remaining six are very close.  By Monday, every team will be at or beyond the halfway point so it’s safe to say the fantasy baseball season is also at the midpoint.  By now you should have a pretty strong feel for your team one way or another.  Unfortunately for some of us, that way might be “another” meaning lower end of the standings seemingly without a prayer.

You might not be like me, a guy who plays multiple leagues, meaning your summer could essentially be ruined before the fourth of July and with football (and with it fantasy football) in limbo, things look bleak.  But fear not, I am here to help.  While things may seem hopeless, they aren’t always as they seem and there may still be some hope or at the very least you can put in every last bit of effort and buy yourself at least another month to six weeks of fun trying climb back into the race.  Remember, while it best to win the league, many leagues still have a strong incentive to finish second, third or fourth (and sometimes fifth depending on league format) assuming there is a prize pool on the line (or a minor league draft which is often the reward for that first spot out of the money).

With that, I present to you the Hail Mary Team.  This team is for the owners who are down deep in the standings and for whom it looks like nothing short of a miracle will save them.  The Hail Mary Team is a list of currently underperforming (and thus almost certainly undervalued) assets who can reasonably be believed to be in for a major upturn in the second half of the season as they regress toward their career mean (regression to the mean isn’t always negative).  Whether they are dealing with a rash of bad luck, injury, flat out poor play or all three, their track record says they are way better than this and thus why not invest, especially at a discounted rate?

There isn’t a one-size-fits-all formula to determine if a team is a candidate for this method, so you will have to base it on your league and the standings are stratified (though feel free to contact me in the comments or on Twitter if you want my opinion on the matter).  Ideally, you would want to have the most points to gain the counting categories (HR, R, RBI, W, SV, K) as opposed to the rate stats (AVG or OBP, ERA & WHIP) because the rate stats will be much harder to move at this point and going forward.  As you pile up innings and at-bats, great performances, even the best of the best, have less impact on those three categories.  That doesn’t mean you want to be dead last in the counting stats, but ideally a few (if not all) would be nicely clumped to where a surge could earn you several points instead of needing 6 HR for 1 pt but then another 20 for the next pt and still 10 more the third point, etc… you get the point.

The guys on the HMT should be available via trade at less than full price in your league (and some may even be waiver wire assets).  What you might do is trade one of your decent guys (not stars) for two or even three (depending on the players involved) of these players so the end result is still a net gain (assuming the Hail Marys [Maries?] connect, of course).  You may already have some of these guys which has led to your issues in the first place.  Hang onto them, add more and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.  The really fun part here will be the building of this team since actually winning is a longshot.  So if you team is on the ropes and you love trading, then this is a strategy for you.

Don’t be afraid to trade your stars in this strategy, but make sure you get a mint and that the extra assets are filling for zeroes or close to it.  Also make sure to get the upper echelon Hail Mary Teamers for your stars.  Don’t trade off your solid Hunter Pence for two “Also Keep In Mind” guys.  That will make more sense when you see the players, but the main point is that if you are getting several assets to plug some of the many holes that buried you in the first place, then don’t trade your star asset or at least don’t trade him to the owner who won’t pay.  Ideally you would like to keep your two or three best assets while adding a handful of the HMT’ers to the equation.  As always, I am available on Twitter (@sporer) clarification or for advice on potential offers.

One other thing before we get to the team of players, this is best executed in redraft leagues for obvious reasons.  If you are toast or near toast in a keeper league, you should be building for 2012 (and reading my Keeper Building Block series to help you with that) as opposed to taking a flier on winning the league or pushing your way into a money spot.

I will break this up a bit, but the entire team will be out by Monday so you can spend your fourth of July day off working the trade wires (or hanging out by the pool with some cold ones… either or).

CATCHER:

Carlos Santana (CLE) – Right or wrong, fantasy managers still pay a lot of attention to batting average and let that be the primary indicator as to whether or not a guy is playing well.  Santana’s batting average is .226 meaning he could be discounted.  However, some owners may realize he has 11 home runs already and he’s on pace for 23 with 74 runs scored and batted in along with an unexpected six stolen bases which is damn good from catcher even with a bad batting average.  If your league’s Santana manager is one of those realizing his full value, just move along, I have another name for you to fall back on.

Mike Napoli (TEX) – He is coming off of a busted month where he only played eight games before getting hurt.  He is slated to started his rehab assignment soon so now is the time to pounce.  His owner might look at the .221 average and think, “Man, I knew he wouldn’t be a batting average asset, but I wanted better than this, plus he only has 10 homers, dude’s weak.”  Dude’s not weak.  He’s toting an .836 OPS and .365 wOBA despite that garbage average because he’s walking at a near-career high clip (15%) and smashing a bomb every 14 at-bats.

Also keep in mind: Joe Mauer.  I can’t imagine he is anywhere near full price.  Some people never discount big names, though.  But check in on his team’s manager, you never know.  He won’t offer the power potential of the other two, though, and his primary asset (batting average) is the toughest category to fix.

FIRST BASE:

Coincidentally, both Santana and Napoli qualify at first base so you could use one of them or go with the obvious name…

Adam Dunn (CHW) – Do I really need to enlighten you on why he’s on this team?  Seven seasons of 38+ home runs including five with 40+, he didn’t just forget how to play.  He’s never been great against lefties, but a career mark of .234 with an .800 OPS is a helluva better than the 1-for-53 superslump he is current mired in against southpaws.  He might suck the rest of the year, there’s a real chance of that when you see him play.  That’s why it is a Hail Mary Team, because he might also smash 20+ home runs and getting some BABIP fortune to push his current .262 BABIP closer to his .294 career mark.

Also keep in mind: Aubrey Huff.  Should be dirt cheap and he was great as recently as last year.

SECOND BASE:

Dan Uggla (ATL) – Going with the obvious name here again, but it’s the best fit so there’s no reason not to put him on this “team”.  He does have 12 home runs so he isn’t terribly far off the pace of the 31 average he has set the over the last five years, but it comes with a .178 average and modest RBI and runs scored paces of 55 and 69, respectively, so he certainly shouldn’t be untouchable.  He is basically on pace for Aaron Hill’s 2010 season at this point right down to the absurdly low .189 BABIP so there is a precedent for this kind of season out of a proven player, but his power upside is worth the gamble for this experiment.

Ryan Raburn (DET) – He has become the second half surge posterboy over the last two years.  Last year he ended the first half with a .637 OPS and just two home runs.  He went on to rip 13 home runs, drive in 46, hit .305 and post a .900 OPS in the second half.  In 2009, it wasn’t so much that he languished through the first half, he was solid (.842 OPS, 6 HR in 50 G), but he took it to another level in the second half.  From the trade deadline to season’s end, he hit .350 (in 55 games) with 10 home runs.  Something about the dog days of summer puts a spring in Raburn’s bat.  He has the added benefit of dual-eligibility at second base and in the outfield.

Also keep in mind: Kelly Johnson & Hill.  Johnson is another guy who might draw a discount because of his .210 batting average, but a more savvy owner (or just one paying attention) realizes that his 26 HR/16 SB pace takes a lot of the sting out of that batting average.  You won’t know if you don’t inquire.  Hill’s comically low 3.2% HR/FB can’t  stick all year can it?  Not after years of 15% and 11%, right?  Although he did go a full season with a 4% rate back in 2004 plus he loves being the outlier of bad luck in metrics (see also: his 2010 BABIP mentioned above).  He can be a last resort at this position.

 

Next: Shortstops & Third Basemen

Posted in Analysis, Catcher, Fantasy Baseball, First Base, Player Focus, Redraft Leagues, Second Base, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trading | 3 Comments »

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