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Tuesday: 06.28.2011

The Top 15 for 2012 Right Now, Part II

Last time out, I covered 11 names I legitimately considered for the top 15 for 2012 and I am sure there were a few names that you were surprised to see on the outside.  Let’s see who actually makes the top 15 as it stands right now:

15. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS, OF) – On a Carl Crawfordian pace this year of 51 SB, 19 HR, 83 RBI, 118 R and .304 AVG.  So they added a Crawford-like line to the lineup, just not from the guy they paid all the money to in the offseason.  Ellsbury is more of a .285 hitter, but that’s a difference of 13 hits for his at-bat total which isn’t too much to a fantasy team’s bottom line.  He is just one home run from a new high watermark in home runs, but I’m not sure he can be counted on for high-teens power just yet.  Even still, he can almost singlehandedly win you the stolen base category while getting you a nice head start in runs at the same time.  The power production is an added bonus.

14. Prince Fielder (MIL, 1B) – Fielder is a tremendous power source who has just entered his prime.  I might be alarmed by the on-off pattern of his OPS totals (sub-.880 in even years, 1.010 or better in odd years) if those kind of staggered patterns had any predictive value whatsoever.  The fact is that even in his “down” years, he is a still 30-home run hitter.  I put a lot of stock in his 157+ games played record from 2006-2010.  My goal in the early rounds is bankable production as nothing kills a team more than missed time.  You can’t predict injuries, but Prince sure hasn’t shown any propensity for getting hurt so with him you are playing the favorable odds.

13. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) – Are you ready to write him off?  I’m not.  He is on pace for another 30-100 season, marks he hasn’t been below since 1997.  And he would have a streak of 30-100-100 just as long if it hadn’t been for some injuries the past two seasons.  Third base is painfully thin which boosts his value even though his numbers don’t really “overwhelm” anymore.  That he was able to reach 30-100 the last three years despite games played totals of 138, 124 and 137, respectively, only tells you the kind of transcendent talent he is even in his mid-30s.

12. Robinson Cano (NYY, 2B) – “Oh hey guys, don’t mind me, I’m just Robinson Cano and I’m on pace for .290-30-100-100-13.  Yeah, I have added some speed to my game this year already setting a career high in June (6), no bigs.  Yes, I started the first half of May on a .186 slump and I was even hitting just .273 as of June 9th, but that didn’t suit me so well so I have been hitting .420 since putting to rest any fears about me.”  Thanks, Robbie.  The counting stats are pretty much locked in because of his teammates and nothing in his profile suggests you can’t count on mid-20s to low-30s home runs totals with a .300-.320 average.  Oh and he’s played 160-159-161-160 games the last four years and he’s on pace for 160 this year.  Consistency, embrace it!

11. Troy Tulowitzki (COL, SS) – He is currently on pace for .276-30-107-85-13 with just one of his patented “cannot-get-him-out-for-two-weeks” streaks which he started the season with back in April.  I would be willing to bet that he has at least one more of those which will surely boost his season pace.  He is an across the board star at shortstop and posting three 24-32 HR/92-99 RBI seasons in the last four has earned him first round credibility.  Though the one chink in his armor is the streakiness.  This applies to head-to-head leaguers, but while he can win two weeks going away during one his streaks, he will disappear for weeks at time shortly thereafter.  In roto you set it and forget it, but in H2H I would push his ranking down a bit.

10. Hanley Ramirez (FLO, SS) – Barring an insane second half, he is in line for the worst year of his career, but it still somewhat salvageable.  Despite the busted year, it would be foolish to overreact and downgrade him too much.  This is still a guy with five elite years under his belt at the thinnest position on the diamond.  You want to pass him over?  Good, more for me.  It will depend how his final line looks, but there is a good chance it will look pretty lame for Ramirez’s standards and that will drive his value down too much in a lot of leagues.

Those owners who benefit from his drop will be like the owners who have Jose Reyes this year, in other words, they will have a great value on their hands.  I still bumped him down a bit from where I had him this preseason, but that is based more on guys who emerged than a pure downgrade of Ramirez.  I could still envision a scenario where I take him in the top 5-7.  There aren’t major gaps in talent between these elite players.  I think it is as close between 1 and 15 as it’s ever been.  Or least as I ever remember.

9. Evan Longoria (TB, 3B) – Injuries have derailed the huge year I thought we would see from Longo in 2011 and there is a growing chorus that believes he is overrated as a first round fantasy pick.  I’m steadfastly in the Longoria camp and I don’t plan on leaving for 2012.  He is one of six players to start his career with three straight seasons with a .500+ SLG in 500+ PAs*.  The others are Albert Pujols, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Earl Averill and Paul Waner.  For those of you scoring at home, that’s five Hall of Famers (yep, I’m putting Pujols in as an active player).  He will need to do some work to notch a fourth (which all the Hall of Famers achieved), but either way this is a superstar in the making.  Like Ramirez, there is still time to salvage his season this year.  His skills profile is worth betting on, especially at 26 years old playing a thin position.

(*the one flaw in this is that Baseball-Reference’s Play Index doesn’t delineate between first season and rookie season so any player who may have had a cup of coffee one year and then went on to three straight 500 PA/.500 SLG seasons won’t be captured in this study.)

8. Carlos Gonzalez (COL, OF) – CarGo’s 2010 has a good chance to end up as his career year, yet many believed it was a sign of things to come and elevated him as the top outfielder in the game.  Gaudy BABIP and HR/FB rates propped up his batting average and home run totals meaning it would take a unique streak of luck to see 34/.336 again in 2011.  That doesn’t mean I thought he would stink, but I preferred him a little later in the first round than most and third amongst outfielders.  Let’s not forget that he will be just 26 years old next year.  Not only is the elite talent bunched together as we head into 2012, but a lot of the key pieces are still very young.

7. Jose Reyes (NYM, SS) – This is about where he would have ranked this preseason had his health been guaranteed and he wasn’t coming off of his two worst seasons including one in which he played just 36 games.  He has more triples in 73 games this year (13) than he had in his 169 games the last two years (12).  His pace for 57 stolen bases would eclipse the two year total by 16.  In other words, he is back to being superstar Reyes.  He isn’t on pace for the double-digit home run total we saw in four out of five years from 2006-2010, but he is still raking the ball as evidenced by the triples count and the pace for a career-high of 42 doubles.  This season is well in line with the track record he established from 2005-2008 and if you favor positional scarcity, Reyes is worth a pick anywhere between here and the top of the draft.

6. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) – Back in November of 2010, I ranked Kemp 23rd in my top 24 and by the time draft season rolled around, I was taking him anywhere in the second round even if it was the 13th pick overall (1st pick in the 2nd round of a standard 12-teamer).  In that piece I said he could rebound for a big 30-30 season in 2011.  Jeez, I may have severely undersold him.  He is on pace for a 44-44 with 125 RBIs, 104 Rs and a .324 batting average.  Even as bullish as I was on Kemp, I didn’t necessarily see this.  There is still more than half the season so nothing is set in stone, but one thing we do know is that Kemp is a fantasy star.  Sure his .249 batting average hurt those who took him in the first round in 2010 (*raises hand*), but he still played EVERY game and delivered pretty big numbers in the other four categories.  The Bison is a beast… and he turns all of 27 next year.

5. Adrian Gonzalez (BOS, 1B) – Remember how many times you thought, “what would Gonzalez do if he wasn’t stuck in Petco?”.  The answer is: this!  Gonzalez has been downright elite and he is on pace for a .356-34-151-119 season doing exactly what we all thought he might with the Green Monster (peppering it with a league-high of 25 doubles; on pace for 53).  He would merit some first round consideration from 2006-2010 (a period during which he played fewer than 160 games just once and it was 156), but his home park and weak supporting cast would always hold him back.  Coming in this season, he was a first round pick in a lot of leagues, but not quite a consensus first rounder.  Now everything sets up in his favor and at 30 next year, he is still in his prime.  Even if he falls off of his absurd paces (especially the .356 & 151), he will no doubt be elite and finally be a no doubt first rounder.

4. Jose Bautista (TOR, 3B/OF) – It is a big statement to rate him this high based on 229 games, but does anyone really still see him as anything close to fluke at this point?  He has actually improved on a career year and significantly so taking his game from a power-only to well-rounded with a gaudy .328 batting average, an absurd .473 on-base percentage and a pace for double-digit stolen bases.  Not only that, but a recent move back to third base all but guarantees his eligibility there for 2012 which adds a lot to his value given the dearth of talent at the position beyond the small tier of elite options.  He has given us every reason to believe his surge into stardom, but I still couldn’t rank him above the legend.  His third base/outfield eligibility is definitely a huge plus and I could see someone taking him #1 overall or at least ahead of this next guy, but I had to go with the insanely long track record of excellence.

3. Albert Pujols (STL, 1B) – Even in the midst of what was considered a “down” year, Pujols was on pace for .279-36-95-110-11 before going down with a major injury.  In fact he was adding to his pace almost every day in June and it isn’t unreasonable to believe that he would have continued to stay hot and get back near the paces we are used to from Prince Albert.  Alas, Pete Kozma has no idea how to throw a ball.  Pujols has been knocked from his #1 perch, but I certainly wouldn’t blame someone for keeping him there, even at 32 years old.  He is as reliable as a player gets and even his “bad” year was a very good season (currently ranked 17th amongst hitters on ESPN’s Player Rater, 22nd overall) before it was derailed by a major injury.

2. Ryan Braun (MIL, OF) – I had Braun 5th coming into the season so this isn’t a major leap for the 27-year old outfielder who is kicking off his “prime” with a bang.  He is displaying some newly discovered speed that may or may not be totally legit, but regardless of that he earns this high ranking for his remarkable consistency, the same reason he check in 5th for me in 2010.  Remember the .500 SLG stat about Longoria?  The only reason Braun wasn’t on it is because he missed the threshold of 500 plate appearances by eight in his rookie year.  I think we can let him slide since he posted a .634 SLG that year.  Since then he has three straight years of 663 or more plate appearances with .500+ SLG (including seasons of .553 and .551).  It just doesn’t get much better or more reliable than Braun.  And given his age, there is reason to believe he can do more than the .307-32-105-99-16 average we have seen in his first four full seasons.

1. Miguel Cabrera (DET, 1B) – I don’t care if he plays the deepest position on the diamond, I am building my team around a guy who has seven straight years averaging .317-34-117-100 in 158 games.  And he is well on his way to an eighth season right in line with those averages.  During the stretch, he has been below the batting average mark just twice (.292, .294), the home runs three times (26, 33, 33), the RBIs three times (103, 112, 114) and the runs scored three times (85, 91, 96).  In other words, even when he strays from the average, he remains elite.  None of the deviations would leave fantasy owners disappointed in Cabrera even in the seasons where he combined two “below average” categories together.  He will be just 29 years old next year and with his ridiculously strong skills profile (he’s actually on a four year decline in strikeout rate from 22% in 2007 to 16% so far this year), I have him as the #1 overall pick for 2012.

I would love hear your thoughts on the rankings, if you thought there were snubs and who you’d take #1 if not Cabrera.  Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Draft, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Statistical Analysis, Stats, Strategy, Top 15 | 6 Comments »

Monday: 06.27.2011

The Top 15 for 2012 Right Now, Part I

The 2011 draft season was seen as one of transition for the upper tier of players as there wasn’t much agreement beyond the top two players on how the rest of the first round should play out.  Hell, there was even some dissent against Hanley Ramirez as the #2 (some had him #1, others had him #3 or #4), though that was more of a vocal minority.  He and Albert Pujols were pretty clearly the first two picks in most drafts.

After those two, any combination of about 15-18 names could make up the remaining 10  picks in the first round of a 12-team mixed league.  Expanding it to a 15-team league opens the pool up to about 20-24 names depending on the preference of the drafters in that league.  Now there is always going to be some shifting from draft to draft, but in 2011 you could see someone taken sixth overall in one league who wouldn’t crack the first round of another.

And the 2011 season isn’t likely to change things for the 2012 season.  Just as the MLB as a whole has tightened up with fewer great teams, so, too, has the player pool as there are now several guys in contention for the #1 spot with Pujols looking mortal throughout 2011 and now shelved for at least month, likely two.  Several contenders for #1 means a lot of uncertainty after that as you could feasibly have a draft where the top five teams all get their #1 guy; that certainly hasn’t been the case for several years.

Despite the clutter at the top, I am going to do my best to outline the top 15 as I see it for 2012 at this point.  This isn’t just going to be a ranking of the best players through nearly three months of 2011, that does us no good.  We have to take what we have seen so far and properly weigh it into the thoughts we had coming into the season about these players.  You have to be careful not to overrate or underrate the most recent season.

Jacoby Ellsbury was at worst a 2nd-round pick heading into 2010 after a pair of excellent seasons.  He sat out through most of an injury-riddled season during which he played just 18 games hitting .192 with a .485 OPS.  His skills hadn’t eroded, it was all injury.  I always say you can’t put a lot (any?) stock into Spring Training stats with the lone caveat being guys returning from injury.

The hard numbers still don’t mean a lot even in these cases, but you want to see that they are playing and appear as healthy as is being reported.  Ellsbury led the team in ST at-bats with 62 and performed really well suggesting he was ready to go.  Even still, he was going no earlier than the 4th round in most drafts.  Of course, Jose Bautista had a season for the ages in 2010 and he was going just a handful of picks before Ellsbury.

I understand the skepticism with Bautista and while I did believe he would remain a major force, I never saw him doing this.  I thought he could be a 37-42 HR hitter with a great on-base percentage and decent batting average.  I found the Ellsbury skepticism a  little more peculiar.  He had a track record of excellence, he had crept into first round consideration just a year ago and while he was injured throughout most of 2010, all signs pointed to a full rebound for 2011.

Those are two clear cases on each end of the spectrum, one overrating the most recent season and another underrating it.  If I had to do one, I would rather underrate the previous season as with someone like Bautista.  I don’t want to be in a position where I ignore or at least diminish a guy’s track record (whether it be Ellsbury, Matt Kemp or Jose Reyes) just because he didn’t exactly display those skills at their peak in the most recent season.

Let’s start with some honorable mentions.  I think it so tightly packed with the top 25 or so that you could reasonably make a case for any of these guys to be in the list of 15, alas they were just out of mine:

Rickie Weeks (MIL, 2B) – It has never really been a question of talent with Weeks, rather health and he is en route to a second straight healthy season which are producing the kind of numbers we had hoped to see in his early-to-mid 20s.  He might almost be a bit underrated at this point as people are still afraid of his given the health issues that plagued the early part of his career.

Drew Stubbs (CIN, OF) – He was one of those sleepers who got so much run that it almost sapped his sleeper value.  He will be a batting average black hole as long as he continues to pile up the strikeouts and this year’s pace is even crazier than last year’s 168 (tracking toward 214).  As such that puts his AVG & OBP at risk which in turn could cut into his runs scored and stolen bases adding risk despite the juicy fantasy numbers.  See also: Young, Chris B.

Nelson Cruz (TEX, OF) – He has top 10 talent when performing at his peak potential, but injuries have undercut that potential significantly and he just can’t be trusted for a full season of production.  He may also be running less as a means of body conservation (4 SB in ’11 after 20 & 17 the last two years).

Kevin Youkilis (BOS, 3B) – Another season in line with his 2008 & 2009 (his 2010 was injury-shortened) seasons with good power and excellent run-based stats thanks to being a part of that elite offense in Boston.  The dearth at 3B would probably be enough to boost him into the top 15 of OBP-leagues.

Curtis Granderson (NYY, OF) – As my favorite Tiger who has now become my favorite non-Tiger, I would love to believe blindly in this surge in performance, but I have to be realistic.  Many predicted a power spike for him in his new home environs last year, but injuries cut his season short for a career-low in games played.  He is making up for the lost time with a 45-home run pace in 2011.  I am not sure he will make that this year or become a consistent 40+ HR guy if he does keep this dream season going.  So while he does get elevated as compared to his 2010 preseason value, he’s not quite first round material even as a power-speed combo with plenty of lineup support for R and RBI.

Mark Teixeira (NYY, 1B) – The dissipation of the batting average that was present in his mid-to-late 20s pushes his value down a bit especially in the fantastically deep first base pool.  He hit .295 from 2004-2009 before hitting .256 a year ago and following it with a .244 mark so far this year.  Still, a lengthy track record 100+ runs scored and driven in with 30+ home run power (including a 48 HR pace so far this year) earn him consideration for an early round pick in any draft.

Mike Stanton (FLO, OF) – Sometimes I forgot that this guy is just 21 years old.  That’s insane when you consider his talent.  The growth of players this young is not linear so we can’t guarantee he will show more development year over year, just ask Justin Upton, but still it is nice to see incremental improvement in strikeout (down 3% to 31%) and walk (up slightly from 8.6% to 9.3%) rates this year.  He will be a high draft pick throughout 2012, but he’s not quite first rounder for me.

Andrew McCutchen (PIT, OF) – He’s a better Drew Stubbs, way better in fact, trading a bit of speed for stronger foundational skills (strikeout & walk rates).  He is also hitting in the middle of the lineup for the Pirates so his RBI opportunities are much greater than Stubbs and as the Pirates continue to improve he will has some 100-RBI seasons.  Until that point, he is just outside the top 15, but another big season jumps him up from the 35-45 range he occupied this preseason.

Jay Bruce (CIN, OF) – Another player on the rise, Bruce offers incredible power potential and should see his value come up from the 65-75 range he was in this past year.  Some wonder if his .281 batting average from 2010 is a peak, while others believe he can be a .300 hitter one day without affecting his power.  Though it will be his fifth season, he will be just 25 years old next year and the best of Bruce may still be on the way.

Joey Votto (CIN, 1B) – This is less an indictment on Votto and more a commentary on the depth of quality players.  I was really high on him for 2010 and it paid off even more than I expected with the 37 home runs which were propped up by an unsustainable HR/FB of 25%.  Given that, I couldn’t understand why people saw him as high as the 3rd or 4th overall pick.  His ADP ended up in the 7-10 area, but I think he is a bit lower than that for 2012.  Barring unpredictable HR/FB surges, he is a high-20s/low-30s home run hitter.  He makes up for the power deficiency with a great batting average (career .314) and the chance of some speed (which could dry up if he doesn’t improve his 60% success rate this year).  That is still worth an early round pick, but not a first rounder.

Justin Upton (ARI, OF) – Upton has an absurd amount of talent, but we have yet to see it all come together.  We could be seeing most of it this year, but if he stays healthy for the whole year, it will be a first.  He has played 108, 138 and 133 games in his first three full seasons with varying degrees of success yielding 106, 129 and 110 OPS+ marks.  He has a .300-20-20 season in there, but he has yet to top 90 runs scored or driven in (which isn’t all his fault as those are team-dependent) and he is only pace to check the runs scored one off of his list this year.  He is a huge name, a great centerpiece for a dynasty team (23 years old) and loaded with potential, but he hasn’t yet earned my trust as a bona fide first round fantasy pick.

Those are the guys who just missed.  I’ll break this up into two parts to keep the length reasonable.  Up next is the top 15 for 2012… at this point.  Subject to change before the 2012 season starts.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Draft, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Top 15 | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 06.27.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 26th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s an exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.  Check the sidebar on the right for previous editions of Twidbits.

Ari – David Hernandez was crushed for 5 ER w/out recording an out on 6/7. Since: 8.7 scoreless IP w/9 K, 1 H, 3 BB. Nice MR option w/10 K/9. (Ed. note: The Tigers bombed him shortly after I wrote this up.  He is prone to the occasional implosion, but the numbers from implosion-to-implosion are really good at least.)

Det – Justin Verlander is 6-0 in 49.7 IP (8+/start) w/0.72 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 8.5 K/BB over his last 6 starts. He is the AL’s best.

Det2 – Al Alburquerque has stifled 21 of 22 inherited runners. A great pickup if you’re high on IP: 2.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 15 (!) K/9.

Col – Ubaldo Jimenez has a 3.31 ERA/1.29 WHIP since 5-17; even better 2.43/1.20 in June w/7.8 K/9 & 4.1 K/BB

Col2 – Ty Wigginton hitting .298 w/7 HR, 16 RBI & 14 R in June. Scarcely owned depsite 1B-2B-3B elig: C 63%, Y! 41%, E 62%. Must-own.

Col3 – Wiggy (cont.) He’s a fantasy Swiss Army Knife & has had 20+ HR in 4 of last 5 yrs and now in Col. How wasn’t he drafted more?

NYY – CC Sabathia was winless in his 1st 4 starts despite a healthy 2.52 ERA; on Sat. he became 1st SP to 10 W going 10-3 w/3.43 in last 13.

Oak – Hiccup or problem? Trevor Cahill was rocked in 4 straight, but has a 1.15 ERA in 16 IP w/13 K in his last 2. Just beating up the NL?

Phi – Saturday was 35th time Cole Hamels has gone 8+ IP in his career. The Phillies offense has averaged 3.3 runs per game in those starts.

LAA – Jered Weaver fell off the radar a bit after his insane April; he’s on fire again: 3-0, 1.35 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 & 3.1 K/BB in last 47 IP

LAA2 – Dan Haren gets 4.3 R/G of support, 4th-lowest in AL. One of those 3 “ahead” of him? Teammate Jered Weaver: 3.9. #neverchasewins

LAD – Dodgers haven’t scored 2+ R in an innings for 2 wks. So why did Dan Haren give their only 2 guys (Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier) anything?

LAD2 – LAD (cont.) He still won, but those two went 5-for-6 against Haren scoring all 3 of the runs he gave up. C’mon, Dan. Just face Loney.

Cin – Maybe Dusty Baker is using Chris Heisey best by rarely starting him. Starter: .225/.299/.382 in 279 PA; Sub: .356/.402/.644 in 102 PA. Odd.

Bal – Don’t confuse Jake Arrieta‘s 9-4 rec. w/success. His 1.2 HR/9 & 1.7 K/BB scream caution, his rec. is built by MLB-best 9.4 R/G of support.

Was – Roger Bernadina is worth owning (E 41%, Y! 14%, C 26%) as a pwr/spd mix. Hitting .400/.426/.644 w/3 HR & 2 SB in last 11; .333 for June.

CWS – At some point, Ozzie Guillen has to be held accountable for playing Adam Dunn v. LHP. He’s now 1-52 (.019) w/24 Ks. Let Lillibridge DH. (Ed. note: Or as reader Paul Bourdett suggested, call up Dayan Viciedo and let him take the hacks at DH against southpaws.  He is killing it in AAA.)

CWS2 – Dunn (cont.) Yes, it’s a small sample overall, but as much as Dunn is struggling, he needs some time off v. southpaws.

Bos – Andrew Miller isn’t an insta-pickup just bc he’s on Boston. He put on 10 baserunners against SD in 5.7 IP. The 6 Ks were nice, but…

Bos2 – Miller (cont.) He has done nothing to earn our trust at the MLB level. Facing Pitt today, then @HOU & v. BAL, proceed w/EXTREME caution

Pit – Jose Tabata was carted off w/an inj. on Sunday & AAA OF Alex Presley was pulled out of his gm shortly thereafter. NL-Onlys take note.

Pit2 – Presley (cont.) He could be in line for some of Tabata’s PT. The 25 y/o is hitting .336/.389/.500 w/8 HR & 18 SB.

Pit3 – Pirates (cont.) But I’d bet on Xavier Paul (speed) & Garrett Jones (power) seeing legitimate increases in their PT first.

Atl – Jason Heyward hitting .297/.381/.405 in 10 G since return from DL. Overall #s miiiight offer buying opp., espec. in non-keeper lgs.

SD – Chase Headley is still widely available & might be worth platooning on the road. Hitting .474 on latest rd trip; .304 AVG/.806 OPS career.

TB – James Shields bumps Verlander to co-best. Last 3: 27 IP (yes, 3 CGs) w/0.33 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 8 K/9, 6 K/BB & of course 3-0. AL ASG starter?

TB2 – Nice wknd for BJ Upton in Hou: 4-11, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 3 R, 1 SB. Hitting .297 in last 9; prob just means a 1-20 upcoming. He hates batting avg.

Hou – Matt Downs .272/.381/.556 w/5 HR in 97 PA. Rakes RHP & at home; so sit him for Clint Barmes at home v. righty. You wonder why you suck Hou?

Min – Ben Revere is the likely benefactor from Delmon Young inj. Revere hitting .284 w/11 R, 4 SB in June. Serves specific purpose & comes cheap.

Mil – Nyjer Morgan at .309/329/.471 in June, but just 1 SB. Perhaps it’s all of his XBH: 7 2B, 3 3B & 2 HR! A slightly better NL ver. of Revere.

CHC – Reed Johnson picked up where he left returning from the DL w/a .933 OPS w/2 HR & 4 RBI in 10 gm. No shallow mixed appeal, but deep & NL-Only

KC – Joakim Soria is back. His June: 12 IP, 12 K, 6 SV, 6 K/BB, 4 H. I hope you pounced on him as soon as he was cut on Memorial Day. Saw it in 3 lgs.

Tor – Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .283/.353/.522 in June w/2 HR, 3 RBI, 5 BB. Hardly overwhelming, but he quals at DH for lgs that requie true DH.

StL – The Cardinals sans Albert Pujols have not had a good week: 1-5 record, .240/.292/.373, 4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

StL2 – In ’10 Jon Jay hit .383/.433/.583 in 115 AB over 49 G (2.4 AB/G); Aug-Sep as a reg. (42 GS), he hit .244/.309/.314 in 172 AB over 56 G (3.3)

StL3 – Jay (cont.) Same in ’11 w/reg PT: .349/.408/.514 thru May (54 G/22 starts); .239/.276/.324 in June (22/17). Sell now while #s still high.

NYM – Daniel Murphy‘s June .318/.355/.386, overall .296/.343/.408; mostly AVG, but 2B/1B elig w/10 G at 3B, too. He’s a playing time glue guy.

Tex – Nelson Cruz is coming out of his funk: .364/.389/.818 w/6 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI & 1 SB in his last 8. Overall #s might offer small discount. Buy.

Cle – Cle is 8-16 in June bc despite success of Masterson & Carrasco, other 3 SP have 5.32 (Talbot), 6.60 (Tomlin) & 7.62 (Carmona) ERAs.

SF – Ryan Vogelsong does not care that he is Ryan Vogelsong, still has allowed more than 2 ER just once in 13 starts. Skills remain strong, too.

SF2 – Vogel (cont.) Doesn’t mean he isn’t some to sell. 13 starts convinces ppl he’s legit, but 86% LOB% & 5.1% HR/FB = SOME regression on 1.86 ERA

SF3 – Vogel (cont.) Let’s say he ends yr w/a 3.00 ERA. He’d be 3.83 ROtW. Oddly enough, that’d be a sub-100 ERA+. 3.10+ = 4.00+ ERA

SF4 – Vogel (cont.) You’re not going to rip someone off for a 33 yr old journeyman, but any upgrade to your tm would be worth moving him. Sell.

Sea – I shy away from low-K SPs, but Doug Fister is criminally under-owned (high of 31% @ CBS): 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 K/BB + Safeco & great D

Flo – Mike Dunn has K’d at least 1 batter in all of his last 13 outings, but otherwise been terrible: 6.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 4 HR, 18 K… ouch.

Flo2 – That’s why you never spend a lot on middle RPs, you have to be able to cut bait at a moment’s notice. Aroldis Chapman stung ppl this yr.

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Sunday: 06.26.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 13 Monday

Oof, ugly week.  On the heels of the best week of the season, Trolling turned in the 2nd-worst of the year with a 4.25 ERA.  Five of the 15 picks performed well so hopefully you picked some or all of those.  I realize most people don’t use every pick during a given week so I just hope on the down weeks that you got in on a few of the favorable results so I didn’t totally sink your pitching for a week.

I remember on Saturday seeing Washington with a goose egg into the 7th and I was excited that John Danks was helping salvage the week, but alas he went out with an injury after just 1.7 innings.  In fact, he ended up on the disabled list shortly thereafter.  Had he gone seven shutout innings, the week would have been right at 4.00 ERA.  Oh well, time to regroup.  There is a light slate on Monday and I only have one choice, so I’ll share that now and then post Tuesday-Friday by Monday afternoon.

MONDAY:

Brandon Beachy (ATL @ SEA) – Came off of the disabled list with a bang striking out 11 Blue Jays.  He gets a worse team in a better ballpark and there is no reason to stick with him, especially as his ownership rate sits well below where it should be as he was cut a lot while injured (Y! 49%, ESPN 68%, CBS 88%).  He won’t be available everywhere and especially in really active leagues, but definitely check just to make sure.  If he throws another gem on Monday, he will almost certainly be snapped too much for Trolling.

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Friday: 06.24.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 12 The Weekend

Some quick picks for the weekend

SATURDAY:

John Danks (CHW v. WAS) – In three June starts, he’s 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 7 K/9.  Take out the butt-kicking he suffered in Toronto at the end of May and he has a 3.31 ERA since April 30th.  He’s coming back around and this is a guy who should be owned across all formats.

Justin Masteron (CLE @ SF) – Masterson’s Achilles heel is lefties and SF only has three: Brandon Crawford, Aubrey Huff & Nate Schierholtz.  Crawford is an all-leather rookie in there for his defensive chops at short while neither Huff nor Schierholtz has been able to post an OPS better than .700 this year.

Jason Vargas (SEA “at” FLO) – Florida is only the home team in that they will bat last, but the game is in Safeco where Vargas has allowed a .650 for his career and .631 on the year. 

SUNDAY:

Doug Fister (SEA “at” FLO) – Taking full advantage of the U2 concert that forced this series to Seattle, I’ll go with another Mariners pitcher who takes advantage of his home park.  Fister allows a .68 OPS at home and just a  .590 OPS against right-handers.  The Marlins have just one regular lefty in their lineup (Logan Morrison) and the only other one who could start is the non-threatening Dewayne Wise.

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Wednesday: 06.22.2011

The Next Wave: 11 AAA Pitching Prospects

Just over a week ago, I wrote up a bunch of AAA hitting prospects who we could see make an impact throughout the summer and now it is time to take a look at a group of pitchers who could do the same.  As with the hitters we have already seen a large group of pitchers come up such as Danny Duffy, Rubby de la Rosa, Juan Nicasio, Brad Hand, Andrew Oliver, Charlie Furbush, Alex Cobb and Alex White.

We have also seen Randall Delgado, Mike Minor & Julio Teheran from the Atlanta Braves, but they have bounced back and forth from minors to majors.  All three are currently down right now, but since they have already been up, you won’t see them on this list.

This list is thinner than the 21 hitters that were discussed, but that actually works out just fine given how plentiful pitching has been this year in the dramatic new pitcher’s era that has carried over (and accelerated) from 2010.

Todd Redmond (ATL) – It is just ridiculous how much major league-ready pitching this organization has right now.  How often does a 26 year old in AAA with a 2.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 3.1 K/BB have almost no chance at making it to the majors with his current team?  Not very often, but when your parent club runs five deep on their rotation followed by three blue-chip prospects ahead of you, it is tough sledding for big league playing time.  Perhaps they will consider moving Redmond in a trade and he will get a shot with a new team.

Felix Doubront (BOS) – The backend of the Red Sox rotation is very much unsettled and there is no certainty that recent call-up Andrew Miller will be the savior which could open a chance for Doubront and his strike-per-inning arm.  He has a sub-3.00 ERA over his last 117 minor league innings (2.89) combining this year and last with 112 strikeouts.  I hope he does get a chance to prove himself as a starter because he can miss bats and induce groundballs at a strong rate; keep the southpaw on your radar.

Kyle Weiland (BOS) – Another hard thrower, Weiland also has a strong sinker and has put together a strong debut in AAA striking out nearly 10 per game though control is a bit of an issue (4 BB/9).  He has induced a lot of groundballs at every stop including at a 48% clip this year.  He profiles a little more like a reliever than Doubront for me mainly because of the control, but there is no denying that Weiland has been one of Pawtucket’s best starters.

Duane Below (DET) – The Toledo Mud Hens has a strong rotation earlier this between Below, Furbush and Oliver.  Furbush has come up and stabilized the bullpen at the big league level and Oliver got a quick two-start look before returning meaning perhaps Below is next?  Phil Coke has hardly been special in his conversion from reliever to starter and while I much prefer Oliver long-term, Below could get a look and perhaps contribute for the rest of 2011 while Oliver continues to work at AAA.

Below (25) is two years older than Oliver, but it has been a deliberate ascension through the minors for the lefty.  Coming off of 2009 Tommy John Surgery, his strikeouts have tumbled from strikeout-per-inning stuff to a craftier 6.6 K/9 level, but he has improved his control significantly to compensate.  I don’t see star potential, but he could come up and be a deep mixed league or AL-Only league asset thanks to a solid, though unspectacular skill set.

Mike Montgomery (KC) – The 2011 season has delivered the first bit of real adversity in Montgomery’s career as a pro as he pummeled every level up until AAA with ERAs of 2.61 or better at every level save a 3.47 at AA.  He had shown impeccable control and command at every level up until AA, too, when his walk rate pushed 4.0 per game (3.9 in 60 IP) giving him his first sub-2.0 K/BB.  Those struggles have amplified and continued at AAA as he has a 5.3 BB/9 and 1.4 K/BB leading to a very ugly 5.83 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.  He could turn it around, go on a stretch and be in the majors in a flash which is why he is included on this list, but things haven’t gone exactly according to plan for Montgomery.

He looked pretty sharp when I saw him back in April, but that was also his best month by far (2.67 ERA) and yet he wasn’t as crisp as he looked in Arizona Fall League.  Pitcher growing pains are nothing new so just be patient if you own him in a league with minor league rosters and prepare for the very real possibility that he doesn’t hit the majors in 2011 or only gets a cup of coffee in September.

Kyle Gibson (MIN) – Hey, a groundball-heavy strikethrower, how original Minnesota.  Gibson pounds the zone as those in the Twins organization are wont to do and his slider and changeup not only induce plenty of weak on the ground contact (55% GB rate this year; 54%+ at all four stops as a pro), but also generate a lot of swings & misses allowing him to pile up enough strikeouts for a 9.4 K/9 in 76 innings at AAA.  He might be what I wish Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey were all these years which is a combination of the best parts of themselves (pinpoint control, above average strikeout rates) and Carl Pavano essentially trading their fatal flaw of a flyball lean (which leads to gopheritis) for Pavano’s primary asset: a near-50% groundball rate.

I couldn’t believe he didn’t get a call up when they were floundering, but now their resurgence has been starting pitcher driven which could keep him down until late July, if not later.  I continue to have zero confidence in Nick Blackburn though there isn’t a shortage of smoke or mirrors in the United States so he might be fine, but Brian Duensing is better as a reliever and Gibson really should already have his spot at this point.  I would keep a close eye on Gibson’s progress and Minnesota’s transaction log because I think he could make an instant impact.

David Phelps (NYY) – Phelps has 156 strong innings at AAA the last two years yielding a 3.7 K/BB so I’m not sure why they even wasted their time with Brian Gordon, who had the impressive debut, but got obliterated on Wednesday in Cincinnati.  He is a 32-year old journeyman reliever and they are in the midst of a pennant race so Phelps or the next guy on this list, both college arms, probably should have gotten the nod there.  But that has passed.

The fact is that the 60% of their rotation is a question mark and you could make a case for as much as 80% given how unreliable AJ Burnett is start to start.  How much can Bartolo Colon deliver when he gets back from injury?  They can’t patchwork the entire rotation with rookies and so they will probably make a trade or two, but Phelps should get a chance at some point this year, especially if Phil Hughes doesn’t show marked improvement when he returns after two more rehab starts.

Adam Warren (NYY) – You can essentially re-read the above and fill in Warren for Phelps while tamping down the expectations a few notches as Warren hasn’t quite been as impressive.  He has just a 5.7 K/9 and 1.6 K/BB so don’t let his better ERA (3.07 to 3.38) fool you.  Still, Warren is a higher rated prospect within the org and minor league numbers don’t always tell the whole story so you will need to keep a close eye on the situation to know who is leading if/when another chance for promotion comes up.

Neil Ramirez (TEX) – How unexpected is Ramirez’s season?  He came in as the 27th ranked prospect in the org according to Baseball America and he was slated to start the season at High-A.  He did and in his only start there he struck out nine in 4.7 innings allowing just a hit and zero runs.  The AAA club needed an arm five days later so he got what was supposed to be a spot start.  After throwing six shutout innings against the blue chip-laden Kansas City Royals AAA affiliate allowing just three hits with five strikeouts and zero walks, the decision was made to keep him at AAA.

He hasn’t disappointed at all striking out 10 batters per game in his 62 innings and maintaining a strong 2.4 K/BB (the walk rate is a little high at 4.1) en route to a 3.65 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  He has unquestionably been the best starter for the AAA team, but whether that means he will get the call at some point this year remains to be seen.  He isn’t without flaws.

Though he can pile up the strikeouts, the walks are an issue as I mentioned and he has a heavy flyball lean (never more than 40% GB at any level including 38% this year) which could be problematic in Arlington during the middle of the summer.  The way he has responded to being thrust into AAA this year makes me like his long-term prospects, but in the short-term he could be Derek Holland-esque with some tantalizing starts as well as some flameouts.  He is far from the Rangers’ best pitching prospect, too, which tells you how well they are set up going forward.

Brad Mills (TOR) – He was in the midst of a great season showing that perhaps it wasn’t so hard to pitch in the PCL with a 2.86 ERA in 85 innings halfway through June.  He has hit one helluva rough patch the last two outings combining for just 11 innings allowing 13 runs (11 earned) thanks in large part to four home runs pushing his season ERA to 3.57 in an 11 day span.  His skills still remain quite strong though with an 8.1 strikeout rate, 2.3 walk rate and 3.6 K/BB rate in 96 innings of work.

Yet somehow Zach Stewart leapfrogged him from AA to replace Kyle Drabek in the rotation.  With only Ricky Romero pitching anywhere near expectations, Mills should get another shot (he has 30 MLB IP over the last two years) at some point this summer.  He picked a nice time to finally have a breakout season in the minors and tame AAA hitters after two unsuccessful tries in 2009 and 2010.

Tom Milone (WAS) – Speaking of breakout seasons, this mid-tier organizational prospect has exploded at the AAA level enhancing his already brilliant control while amping up his strikeouts a bit to post a Cliff Leeian 16.4 K/BB rate in 76 innings (Lee was at 16.3 after 139 innings last year, but a late summer swoon pushed him all the way down to 10.3, 2nd-best in MLB history).  Milone was quite impressive last year at AA, but he has taken it to another level this year allowing as many homeruns as he has walks (5 apiece).

He doesn’t have overpowering swing & miss stuff so it would be a minor miracle for him to post anything near a strikeout per inning at the big league level, but he can no doubt be a backend of the rotation asset as a control artist who spins a gem every once in a while.  We have seen several guys with this kind of profile do some good things in the majors, especially this year with offense down so much.  I think he can be a John Lannan-plus trading some of Lannan’s big groundball rate for a strikeout rate better than Lannan’s nearly unusable sub-5.0 marks of the last three years.  I hope Milone gets a call soon as I am eager to see what he can do in the majors and how much of his gaudy statistical profile will come with him.  They are really putting something together in Washington.  It’s not always *only* about the blue-chippers as you need glue guys like Milone.

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Wednesday: 06.22.2011

Second Base Addendum

After I posted the Keeper League Building Blocks for second base a reader mentioned a couple of names to me on Twitter that were to surprise exclusions for the reader: Dustin Ackley & Jemile Weeks.  The freshly called up prospects without 20 games between the two of them (17, 14 of which are Weeks’) weren’t included on purpose.  Anyone who has been reading this site for any amount of time since last year knows I am fan of both, so what gives?

A large portion of it has to do with their scant track records as we haven’t really seen how they will handle the majors leagues.  While I am bullish on both, I would certainly like to see more before recommending them as building blocks for a team.  Building block is the key phrase.  The point of this exercise is to identify the strongest and best players for your 2012 title run.  After all, you are trading your best 2011 pieces to your opponents so you need to get the best return possible.

Additionally, the fantasy profiles of each also contributes to their exclusion from a list that focuses so much on key contributors.  Ackley is supposed to be an on-base percentage monster (alas he’s yet to walk in his four games… so much for that, amirite???), but if you don’t play in an OBP league that hardly helps especially since he can have a great OBP based on walks with a batting average of .275 or below.

Let’s assume he does get on base at or near the 40% clip we’ve seen from him in his minor league career, who is going to drive him in?  They are less awful than last year’s historic futility, but they are still awful.  Beyond that, in the short-term he doesn’t profile to excel in any category whether as a pure hitter (batting average), a power producer (HR, RBI) or as a speedster (though he did get a 65 speed grade from Baseball America in their ’11 Handbook).  I think he can eventually become a .300+ hitter, but I don’t see it happening right away.

I really like Weeks, but like his brother Rickie he needs to show he can stay healthy which is something he has yet to do for a full season as a professional.  Initially he profiles as a speedster who could pile up SBs and use that speed for some extra hits en route to a good enough batting average (.260-.270).  Long-term his peak profile is a Ray Durham, but Durham didn’t start offering meaningful power or top .275 until his fourth year in the league.

The progression of youngsters isn’t linear so as hard as it is to project any player, it is even harder to project where Ackley & Weeks will go in 2012 and ultimately that is why I decided not to recommend them as essential building blocks for teams currently selling off their best players for foundational pieces.  If you have a deal lined up to get a building block, try to get one of these two thrown in, but don’t make them the centerpiece focus of a deal where you are trading your ace or $35 power bat.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Keeper Leagues, Minor Leagues, Player Focus, Prospects, Second Base, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trade Deadline | 5 Comments »

Tuesday: 06.21.2011

Keeper Building Blocks: Second Base

Second base is a position that has some sneaky depth.  To wit, on ESPN’s player rater the 3rd and 12th ranked second basemen are split by just 0.86 points on the scale.  Conversely, it’s a 3.35 point split at first base at least 2.72 at every other position except for relief pitcher (but that’s not too surprising giving how little variance there is between RPs).

Despite this depth at the position, there aren’t a ton of building blocks at the position as the best are in their late 20s and already high-priced assets and the next cut is also filled with mid-20s guys with solid production, but nothing overwhelming that you would want as a primary keeper.  Let’s take a look at the ones I did come up with, though.

Danny Espinosa (WAS, 24) – He just barely crossed the 100-game plateau for his career so there is a lack of track record, but it’s hard to argue with the across the board production even at the cost of batting average.  He has a career .250 BABIP so far, though, so we could even see some growth there.  I have been saying it since last year, but the Nats are really building something there in Washington and Espinosa will be a key part of the success.

Howard Kendrick (LAA, 27) – See what I mean?  There’s nothing wrong with the actual depth of the position, but it’s thin on burgeoning talent.  Even though he is atop of this list, if you combined the catchers, first basemen and second basemen, he’d be near the bottom.  He is on pace for .308-16 HR-11 SB, but just 52 RBI (thanks to an inept supporting cast) and decent 81 runs scored, again because of his teammates.  His price will vary from league to league, but considering that last year was his first full season and he already blew his shot at a second in a row this year, I doubt he’s too expensive anywhere.

Kelly Johnson (ARI, 29) – I have Johnson and Kendrick neck & neck here (along w/the next guy, to be honest).  Johnson’s .215 batting average is no doubt ugly, but I am more focused on the 27 HR-18 SB-71 RBI-87 R pace and since we are focused on 2012, his batting average this year doesn’t mean much.  He can be a .260ish or better hitter just as he was last year (.284) and in his two other full seasons (.287, .276).  However, like Kendrick, even with an average at his career .264 he isn’t a prime building block.

Ben Zobrist (TB, 30) – Rinse and repeat from the first two guys.  Zobrist has been an inconsistent, yet ultimately productive player the last two years and he is on pace for a season closer to his 2009 breakout when he was one of baseball’s best overall.  While many believe 2008 to be his career year, his current pace is just 6 HR, 9 RBI and 1 SB behind.  His runs are ahead by seven.  The biggest difference is his batting average which by just over 3% (.297 to .265), but the counting stats production across four categories is more important than the average.

Neil Walker (PIT, 25) – A younger option than the last three, but I still have him as the lowest because he doesn’t produce across the board like the others and his power lags a bit, at least right now.  He is doing his best work with runners on which has led to his gaudy RBI total, but we know it is hard to bank on that year-to-year and since that is his biggest category at this point I am reticent to rate too highly.

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Monday: 06.20.2011

Keeper Building Blocks: First Base

Continuing my series of the best Keeper Building Blocks for those with an eye toward 2012, let’s take a look at the remarkably deep position of first base.  While it is almost certainly the deepest position on the diamond, at least for hitters, it is heavy with premium talent.  This means we see a lot of early round talent from the position so finding cheap keepers at the position isn’t always a priority, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t there.

Part 1: Catchers

Joey Votto (CIN, 27 years old) – Yes, Votto is a premium early round, top dollar talent, but his meteoric rise to stardom means he could still be in the midst of a cheap contract in some leagues. This is the case in two of my leagues and so I thought it might not be a rarity.  Obviously, you’d have to sell the farm to get him, but if you are building for 2012, you shouldn’t be concerned about selling off multiple high dollar, non-keeper pieces to acquire him.  I fully realize that he won’t be on a cheap contract in ALL leagues, but given his unique circumstances, I thought he was worth mentioning.

Adam Lind (TOR, 27) – What the hell was that 2010 all about?  After a .305-35-114 breakout in 2009, Lind cratered like no one could have predicted falling to .235-23-72.  He has bounced back in full force and he is currently on pace for a massive season, even exceeding 2009, at .339-44-130.  Even if he “only” puts up a 2009 line, he is still going to be an appealing keeper because his 2010 failure drove down his price this preseason.

Gaby Sanchez (FLO, 27) – A strong rookie year from Sanchez last year got him some attention, but sub-20 HR first basemen aren’t in high demand and they often end up in the corner infield of a fantasy team.  However writing him off as a sub-20 HR 1B may have been a premature judgment as Sanchez has done some impressive work 70 games into his second season.  He is on pace for a .312-28-100 season which would no doubt boost him into the second tier.  He has improved his walk and strikeout rates while nothing in his batted ball profile suggests the extra power is huge fluke.  As a second year player he is cheap in almost all leagues and worth acquiring for a 2012 title run.

Justin Smoak (SEA, 24) – He underwhelmed in his 100-game debut season last year, but in 63 games this year he already has one more double and one home run fewer than last year despite 123 fewer at-bats.  Even though it is still not great, his .253 batting average is much improved from last year and I think there is growth potential for this youngster.  There may be some prospects you would find more desirable than Smoak because they are the new thing that hasn’t yet struggled in the majors, but remember how highly touted he was coming in and he is now more advanced than the first year guys we are seeing this summer.

Eric Hosmer (KC, 21) – This would be the type of prospect I suspect people have higher than someone like Smoak because fantasy baseball owners love blue chip prospects.  I am a big Hosmer fan too, but let’s be careful with our expectations.  His 600 at-bat pace for his current numbers would be 19 HR and 82 RBI and he’s insanely young so it is reasonable to project some growing pains for him whether this year or at times during 2012.  He is definitely someone worth pursuing as a keeper piece, but don’t expect him to produce at an elite level right away in 2012.  It could happen, but it would be an upset.

Ike Davis (NYM, 24) – I might have had Davis a little higher, but I would like to see him return from injury first.  He was off to an excellent start this year after a nice debut last year, but a 17% HR/FB suggests that his 30+ home run pace (prior to his DL stint) was unlikely to hold and probably would have evened out somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s.  Even still, at his cost he is definitely someone to acquire.

Mitch Moreland (TEX, 25) – An oddity in Moreland’s stat line this year is his meager RBI total (20) compared to what has otherwise been a strong season.  Part of the problem is that 55% of his at-bats have come with the bases empty and during that time he has hit seven of his eight home runs (he had a grand slam wiped out by a rainout earlier this year, too) and another part is that only 22% of his at-bats have come with runners in scoring position and he has sucked in just about all of them with a .196 AVG and .587 OPS.  But RBIs are team-dependent so I focus more on his dual-eligibility at first and the sneaky-thin outfield as well as his 20-25 home run power.  He isn’t a great player, but he’s probably $1 in a lot of leagues which makes him pretty valuable.

Brandon Belt (SF, 23) – This is tentative because we have to see him do something first.  Plus, in some leagues he was in the auction as opposed to the minor league draft and that drove his value up a lot.  For example he is $17 in one of my NL-Only leagues which is way too high of a price to consider him a keeper.

Anthony Rizzo (SD, 21) – Another tentative one as he has just eight games under his belt so far.  He and Belt are pretty close in my eyes so it’s a personal preference thing.  I lean toward Belt because I have seen more of him and believe in his skills, but Rizzo is almost certain to be cheaper in most leagues because he is probably on a rookie level contract (which is usually $5) so make your judgment based on your league.  Like I said, in that league where Belt is $17 I’m not interested, but he’s probably $5 in some leagues and that’s where I would give him the edge over Rizzo.

A lot of young first base has emerged and if you can get some of it for your core you can still supplement it with a big first base bat in next year’s auction or draft.  Power has been drying up a bit the last two years so don’t feel that just because you have one of these guys that you are set at the position.  Look at it as a beginning to your power base.

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Monday: 06.20.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 19th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s an exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.  Check the sidebar on the right for previous editions of Twidbits.

Det – Det bullpen had 6.03 ERA on 5/22; now at 4.65 after a rebuild. In June: 2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 , 2 K/BB in 46 IP.

Col – Charlie Blackmon has shown speed right away w/5 SB in 12 G, but he has some pop as evidenced by .572 AAA SLG. Think Shane Victorino 07-09.

Pit – Garrett Jones is hitting .394 in June (13-33) & has started 6 of last 8 GP. Might finally have his job back; cheap pwr source

Pit2 – Why is Jones doing a French Stewart impersonation in his ESPN pic? http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28763/garrett-jones

Cle – Carlos Carrasco is on fire the last month: 2.8 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB. High GB% mitigates low K. Also 7 K/9, 3.4 K/BB in last 3.

Tor – Since breaking his L-streak, Jo-Jo Reyes is 3-1 w/3.21 ERA. Don’t be fooled though, 1.32 WHIP & 1.5 K/BB thanks to ugly 4.8 K/9.

Tor2 – Reyes was better when he was losing: 6.8 K/9 and 2.9 K/BB in first 49 IP of season. Avoid for now.

Cin – Preached caution w/Johnny Cueto few wks back for a few reas. incl. low K/9. Still lucky, but 6.5 K/9 & 3 K/BB in last 4. Still sell, but less worried.

LAA – Angels have a league-worst 4 (!) HR in June so far. 28 players have 4+ HRs. It’s a small miracle that they’re even 5-10 this month.

NYM – Jonathon Niese has allowed >2 ER just once since April 14th (2.65 ERA in 71 IP, 6.9 K/9) after allowed 5+ in 2 of his first 3 starts.

NYM2 – Need a cheap RP fill-in? Bobby Parnell has been excellent since returning from the DL: 1.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12.9 K/9, 5.5 K/BB in 8 IP.

Tex – Thru May Neftali Feliz had 9/14 K/BB in 19 IP w/10 SV. In June so far, he has 8 K, 1 BB in 7 IP w/4 SV. Appears to have course-corrected himself.

Atl – If you took both Jonny Venters & Craig Kimbrel to lock up ATL SVs, you’d have a 1.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 101 K, 6 W & 21 SV in 78 IP.

Atl2 – Vent/Kimb cont. That’s as many Ks as Tim Lincecum, better ERA than any SP, a WHIP equal to Dan Haren & 4th-most Ws… oh and most SVs in MLB.

Bal – Adam Jones is having a strong yr, but perennially wears down w/12 & 14 of his 19 HR the last 2 yrs in the 1st half. Has 10 so far. Sell?

Was – Michael Morse‘s Apr: .211/.253/.268 & cut in many lgs. Whoops!! Since: .364/.418/.729 w/12 HR, 33 RBI & 24 R. DON’T give up after 1 month.

Mil – Randy Wolf is the ultimate matchup guy w/8 starts of 65+ game scores & 6 sub-50s. Some of his best: Pit, Hou2x, Chc, Phi; worst: Cin, StL

Bos – Marco Scutaro is worth a pickup, espec. w/Jed Lowrie on the DL. He’s hitting .371/.421/.486 in June since returning. Nice Runs Scored option.

Flo – All but 3 regulars are at .254 or below in June for the Marlins; only 1 SP w/an ERA below 4.82 and that’s how you get a 1-17 record.

TB – Alex Cobb struggled in 1st 2 MLB starts w/7 ER & 8 BB in 11 IP, but he’s looked sharp since: 1.96 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.0 K/BB in 18 IP.

TB2 – Johnny Damon‘s pace of .277 AVG, 18 HR, 74 RBI, 16 SB, 74 R is somehow not good enough for Y! (54%) & CBS (80%) leaguers. Check your wire.

SD – I don’t care if he has 2 W all yr, how is Tim Stauffer so avail. (C 57%, Y! 40%, E 17%)? On pace for 207 IP w/7.1 K/9 & 3.2 K/BB. Buy NOW!

Min – No Twins pitcher w/5+ IP has an ERA over 3.27 in June. Francisco Liriano‘s last 33 IP (thru Sun.) 1.91 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 2.5 K/BB.

KC – Alcides Escobar is hitting .431/.453/.569 in last 14 G w/7 SB. Cheap speed at thin position if you need someone: E 47%, C 33%, Y! 19%.

StL – Since his Coors Collapse on 5/28, Jaime Garcia has 2.96 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 & 4.5 K/BB in 24 IP. In other words, it was a blip.

Hou – Wandy Rodriguez allowed 4-5-7 in 3 of 1st 5 GS (5.40 ERA). Since: 1.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB in 48 IP; 8 K/9 in last 26 IP.

Hou2 – Wandy (cont.) He’s not 100% rostered at any of major outlets, so don’t assume he’s owned in your league: E 95%, C 90%, Y! 77%

Hou3 – Not sure why Mark Melancon is so avail. He’s been great & Brandon Lyon is now out for yr: E 77%, Y! 50%, C 41%. Free saves!

LAD – Only 1 Dodgers SP has an ERA below 4.41 (Kuroda) & only 2 are below 5.52 (Lilly) thus a 5-11 June record for the tm.

LAD2 – One elite, one brand new, but I’d buy either Clayton Kershaw (5.95) & Rubby de la Rosa (5.52) if any was selling based on June swoon.

SF – Madison Bumgarner had a 7.79 ERA & 2.06 WHIP on 4/23. Since then he’s been among MLB’s best: 2.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 4 K/BB in 67 IP

SF2 – MadBum (cont.) Not 100% owned at 3 major outlets: E 92%, C 88%, Y! 67%. Check your lg to be sure. 3-8 W-L may offer discount via trade

Oak – A perennial 2H player, Coco Crisp is on pace for 47 SB along w/modest but useful 77 R, 50 RBI & 5 HR.

Oak2 – Crisp (cont.) Career .276 hitter, hit 8 HR in 75 G last yr. could surge in midsummer. Still available in many lgs. Buy even if just for the SBs.

Phi – Good SP is infectious as Vance Worley‘s 3.41 ERA is highest in the non-Blanton division of Philly SPs. Hamels-Halladay-Lee have 9+ K/9. Sick

Sea – Ichiro coming out biggest slump of his career? 7-game hitting streak w/6 multi-hit gms: .467/.484/.667 and 4 SBs. Could be in for absurd 2H.

CWS – Alexei Ramirez needed 6-for-13 rally at end of Apr. to finish .265/.318/.382. Rarely does well early. Since: .318/.380/.468.

CWS2 – Alexei (cont.) Know who you’re drafting. Career OPS in Apr: .580; only other month below .780 OPS is Sept at .705, he hates cold weather.

Ari – Daniel Hudson had 5.64 ERA in Apr; skills said much better. Skills win! Since: 7-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 4.5 K/BB. 6+ IP every GS.

NYY – Curtis Granderson‘s career yr is fueled by improvements v. LHP: .277/.337/.651–career .221/.281/.376. 20 HR v. LHP in 1st 5 yrs; 9 in ’11.

Chc – Carlos Marmol since 6 ER in 0.3 IP disaster: 1.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 13 K/9, 4.3 K/BB in 9 IP. Was a blip, but nothing to worry about at all.

Chc2 – Is Doug Davis a home spot starter? 2.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 23 IP incl. start v. Yankees. The 3.9 BB/9 suggests some caution.

 

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