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Sunday: 06.19.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 12 Monday-Friday

Another big week for Trolling the Wire that was actually the best week yet.  With a 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 4.7 K/BB in 70 innings, this week’s waiver wire pickups set four new records.  Only the K/9 failed to set a new high checking in at 7.9, just below the 8.2 record set in weeks 5 & 6.

I don’t mean to be boastful, but setting these records in week 11 is an impressive feat.  When you think about it, the records should have been easier to set earlier in the season when better guys were available.  As we sit 11 weeks in, a lot of rosters have multiple guys on their staff that they got from the wire, but there was still enough talent for us to better our teams via streaming.

Let’s see what week 12 brings…

MONDAY:

Jake Arrieta (BAL @ PIT) – He might finally start to be getting on a roll and he heads to Pittsburgh to face a below average lineup in a nice ballpark.

Gavin Floyd (CWS v. CHC) – He is right there on the fringe between just above and just below average which makes him a perfect matchup play.  The Cubs don’t have a particularly scary lineup and Floyd’s 3.0 K/BB skills should play well against them.

Juan Nicasio (COL @ CLE) – With a 3.6 K/BB powered by a 1.9 BB/9, Nicasio is making a nice impression out of the gate in his major league debut.  I was a fan of his coming into the season and though he made it to the big leagues faster than I expected, it appears to be the right call.

TUESDAY:

Dillon Gee (NYM v. OAK) – Gee at home (1.77 ERA v. 4.15 road) against an inferior offense is an auto-start.

James McDonald (PIT v. BAL) – Trolling has been on the McDonald for most of 2011 and while he burned us a bit early on, he has posted a 3.04 ERA in 10 starts since having a 10.12 ERA in his first four.

WEDNESDAY:

R.A. Dickey (NYM v. OAK) – Struggled in his last start, but even including that he has a 2.48 ERA with 7.0 K/9 in the last month so let’s pick on the A’s two days in a row.

Rick Porcello (DET @ LAD) – If you take out blow up starts against Boston and in Colorado, he has a 1.93 ERA in the last month.  The Dodgers are nowhere near the Red Sox or Rockies so I expect to see the good Porcello here.

THURSDAY:

Brian Duensing (MIN @ SF) – His skills have been strong the last month (7.2 K/9, 3.0 K/BB) despite poor results.  Against the Giants in their spacious park, the results should finally start catching up.

FRIDAY:

Tim Stauffer (SD v. ATL) – Stauffer has been amazing this year, yet he’s criminally under-owned.  Of course I’m going to take him at home against a middling offense.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE @ SF) – Carrasco was essentially my AL-version of James McDonald coming into this year, a deep sleeper I thought would take a big step forward.  He got off to a slow start, like McDonald, but he’s got a 2.72 ERA in the last month spanning 40 innings.

Scott Baker (MIN @ MIL) – The gopheritis scares me a bit as I have been burned by Baker too many times, but it’s hard to argue with how well he has been pitching so let’s ride the hot hand, even against Milwaukee.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 06.17.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 11 The Weekend

Quickly taking a look at the weekend Trolling picks…

SATURDAY:

Tim Stauffer (SD @ MIN) – Still massively under-owned for whatever reason even on the heels of back-to-back brilliant performances (15 IP, 0 ER w/13 K).  The Twins are playing better in June, but still have a below average team OPS.

Scott Baker (MIN v. SD) – Another under-owned arm that boggles my mind.  What more are people looking for?  He has 8.4 K/9, 3.4 K/BB and a 113 ERA+, he should be on a team permanently.  I realize pitching is deep this year, but not deep enough for guys like this to be on the wire.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE v. PIT) – Save his ugly first start of the year and a quick stint on the DL, he is fulfilling the promise I thought he had coming into with a 3.55 ERA since the 7 ER season debut.  He is understandably owned in fewer leagues, but definitely worth a matchup play against a modest offense.

SUNDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. LAA) – He’s a 2-start guy this week and I like him for both.  He offered a strong start on Tuesday against Atlanta (6.3 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 0 BB, W) and I think he can do even better against a putrid LA offense (league-worst .592 OPS in June).

Jeff Karstens (PIT @ CLE) – He gave Trolling users a gem last week and he is on a ridiculous hot streak so let’s ride the hot hand.  I wish he struck out more guys, but he walks nobody so it’s easier to swallow.

Results and Week 12 picks on Sunday.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 06.16.2011

Keeper Building Blocks: Catcher

The cliché is that hope springs eternal in baseball and that is no doubt especially so in fantasy baseball wherein you get to remake most, if not all, of your team each year.  Keeper leagues allow you to build a core and hopefully keep a winning tradition around for several years.  Of course, we know it doesn’t always work out that way.

Looking at the keeper lists in one of my leagues I saw one team as especially strong heading into auction day with Buster Posey, Jason Heyward and Madison Bumgarner at $5 apiece, Colby Rasmus for $10 and Matt Cain at $21.  This is an NL-Only league so he had a strong hitting base, an ace and second tier arm for $46.  Plus a $1 Omar Infante that offered flexibility and solid if entirely unspectacular production with the bat.

I never declare anyone the winner before auction, after auction, in May, etc… but I definitely pegged this team as a chief competitor.  Well we know how this plays out.  The two foundational hitters flopped with the former out for the year and the latter sidelined and being called out to get his butt back in the game.  How about his big auction buys?  Hanley Ramirez, Ubaldo Jimenez and Tim Lincecum.  Lincecum was dominant until a recent skid while Ramirez and Jimenez are trying to dig out of massive holes.

It just hasn’t worked out for this team and as such he decided to pack it in and begin selling off pieces to rebuild his core and give it a go again in 2012.  You may be faced with a similar scenario in your league.  You have made the decision to play for the future, but now you are wondering: who do I get for this supposed magical core of greatness?  I am so glad you asked.  Over the next few days I will be going position-by-position outlining the best core talents in the fantasy game*.

(*in my opinion)

This won’t just be a listing of the first rounds of this year’s average draft position.  Albert Pujols is no longer a cheap contract unless your league has weird rules, neither is Hanley.  Same goes for Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, David Wright, Robinson Cano, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira and you get the point.  Older stars who have been great for several years are now the $30+ guys year in and year out.  So I will be identifying the next wave of $30+ players who are still really cheap* with at least another year of low-dollar cost.

(*in most leagues, I can’t know every league so I will be making some assumptions and if a certain guy doesn’t fit the pricing in your league and he’s already a high dollar guy, just skip over him.)

We will start with catchers.

Carlos Santana (CLE, 25 years old) – He is definitely under-performing against expectations so far this year with a meager .216 batting aaverage, but he is still toting a .347 OBP and is on pace for 17 HRs and 63 RBIs, marks that would have put him 5th and 7th among catchers in 2010, along with 70 runs which would have been the 2nd-highest total for backstops a year ago.  The bar is low for catching so he doesn’t need to dominate on the level of a first baseman or outfielder to be worth a lot, alas I am still confident he has a big stretch in his bat this year.  Remember, he is coming off of a devastating leg injury from last year.

Matt Wieters (BAL, 25) – Funny how Santana is viewed as a disappointment while Wieters is thought to be having a strong showing thus far.  He is on pace for 13 more RBIs than Santana, but two fewer home runs and 14 fewer runs scored.  It is because snap judgments are often made by looking at the batting average first.  Wieters has a 59-point advantage in batting average yet he is 16-points back in on-base percentage so I’m still taking Santana.  Wieters hasn’t fulfilled the potential he was said to have coming up from the minors, but he’s improving.

Buster Posey (SF, 24) – Despite the injury, he is still someone worth building around because he is so talented.  He will have a long time to heal and given that there was initially talks of his return late this year, there is no reason to think he won’t be ready for the start of 2012.

Alex Avila (DET, 24) – He was a sleeper pick in AL-Only leagues and deeper mixed leagues especially for those who just go for lottery tickets at catcher opting to spend their money on more bankable positions and he has exceeded even the greatest expectations.  The power production (on pace for 21 HR) isn’t too surprising to me, but the 89 RBI pace and .304 average are huge bonuses.  I wouldn’t bet on the batting average, but he is likely a dollar in many leagues so he doesn’t need to hit better than .300 to have incredible value.  In some leagues he is probably a waiver pickup and leagues vary with their cost for pickups.  If he’s $10 (or more), I wouldn’t be so eager to acquire him.

Miguel Montero (ARI, 27) – This isn’t exactly a new level of production for Montero as he had a similar season in 128 games back in 2009.  Last year he battled injuries and played just 85 games.  In 60 games this year, he has nearly equaled his production from 2010 falling just a home run, nine RBIs and three runs shy while improving his average by 19 points.

JP Arencibia (TOR, 25) – Arencibia is a quick study.  He has learned, in short order, the Toronto philosophy to grip it ‘n’ rip it so despite a meager .232 average and horrendous .286 on-base percentage, he is on pace for 23 home runs and 80 RBIs.  A similar line from John Buck in Toronto last year made him a top 5 catcher (trading some RBIs for batting average which might push Arencibia down a few ranks, but you get the point).  In a two-catcher league, cheap power is a nice asset.

The list is thin, as you might expect, but that’s because quality offensive catchers are tough to come by so if you can find a cheap, productive one then he is worth using as a building block.  Even though we started with catchers, I would rate them last on the hierarchy of positions from which to build.  Though the hierarchy fluctuates based on the talent pool in baseball, catcher is pretty firmly entrenched at or at least down near the bottom.

Outfield would be the leader because of the young talent available and because it isn’t as deep as many assume.  You generally need at least four outfielders if not five plus some people use one for their DH and other owners might take OF-eligible players and put them in positions where they might better fit their team thus drying the pool further.

First base is the deepest talent pool, but it is rich with early round, high priced talent so it ranks second to outfield here.  Then it would be shortstop, second base and third base in that order.  Again, this is based on the current talent pool of cheap, keepable players that skew young.  I will go around the diamond in order of catcher-first base-second base-shortstop-third base-outfield before looking at pitching.  That’s a whole other field worthy of its own deep-dive discussion.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Keeper Leagues, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trading | 5 Comments »

Wednesday: 06.15.2011

The Regression Monster Summer Tour 2K11

The Regression Monster Summer Tour 2K11 is in full swing as he tours the nation eating ERAs and WHIPs with reckless abandon.  The Regression Monster, brother of the Luck Dragon, seeks out abnormally low ERAs and WHIPs boosted by well above averages in any or all of the following:

BABIP – Batting Average On Balls In Play: just as the name says, the batting average of non-strikeouts & non-home run at-bats.  This generally normalizes around .300, but a pitcher can set his own a bit off of that norm one way or another depending on his tendency toward inducing contact that results in groundballs or flyball.  A pitcher can enjoy an abnormally low BABIP for an entire season, but guessing who will be the fortunate one(s) of a given season is a risky proposition thus the smart money is on the Regression Monster’s appetite.

LOB% – Left On Base Percentage: the percentage of base runners left on base, duh.  This generally drifts toward 72% as a league average, but some pitchers buckle down with runners on helping them sustain a higher mark and others crumble at the first sign of danger leaving them below the average for a season (or career, right Dave Bush?).  Some are just plain lucky or unlucky here within a season, too.

HR/FB – Home Runs per Flyball Rate: the percentage of flyballs allowed by a pitcher that leave the yard.  The average here 10% regardless of flyball count allowed so if a flyball pitcher will naturally yield more home runs, on average, than a groundball pitcher because their 10% portion comes from a larger pie.  Pretty simple stuff.  Some guys can have some good fortune that carries them through a season, but again betting on who will remain fortunate for the six month season is a fool’s errand and as such an abnormally low figure is expected to encounter regression as the season wears on and the weather heats up.

When the Regression Monster sees a pitcher with an ERA and WHIP that belie his skill, he notices that it is often fueled by some good fortune in one or more of the above figures.  Thus he makes plans to visit that pitcher to either nibble on or gorge himself on their ERA and WHIP while in the process evening out some of that previously experienced good fortune.

Sometimes, just as with a rock band touring, the Regression Monster will have more than one stop in a particular city either to visit a pitcher for a second or third time or to indulge with another pitcher on the ballclub.  I now present you to the RMST2K11.


May 10th – Clayton Richard (SD) – Carried a 3.55 ERA in early May despite a weak 1.5 K/BB.  The main culprit was a 4.2% HR/FB that was not only well below average, but also tempting fate because he was allowing flyballs at a 1.3-to-1 clip against groundballs.  Regression Monster started his tour with a bang catching up with Richard in Milwaukee where he allowed eight runs, seven earned in just three and a third innings pushing his ERA to 4.79 on the year.

Richard has been inviting RM back for a second showing by posting a 3.22 ERA over his last 36 innings despite a pathetic 18/14 K/BB (1.3) and some continued undeserved good fortune in his BABIP (.260) and HR/FB (5%) despite a shift to more groundballs than flyballs (1.1 GB/FB).

—

May 27th, June 1st, June 6th, June 12th – Josh Tomlin (CLE) – The Woodstock of the Regression Monster tour, Tomlin’s correction was a two week-plus festival.  Tomlin, who apparently moonlights as a magician, managed not only to get a BABIP below his weight (.175 against 190 lbs.), but also had perfected the seemingly impossible art of allowing solo home runs.  Through May 21st he had allowed eight home runs on the year, but was fortunate enough to have the bases empty for seven of them.  He thought he was off the Regression Monster’s radar with a 7% HR/FB rate which is below average, but not wildly so.

Alas, the Regression Monster is thorough.  He not only saw the minuscule BABIP, but also the abundance of solo shots so he packed his bags for what he knew would be an extended trip.  He first met Josh in Tampa and managed to attack two birds with one stone as Tomlin allowed 10 hits in six innings and gave up a pair of two runs home runs.  But it was merely the beginning.

Over the first 12 days of June, the Regression Monster put together a string of hits that no will no doubt become classics on his discography.  In that span Tomlin allowed 18 runs (exactly six per outing) in 17 innings good for a 9.53 ERA while yielding a BABIP of .438 (and .424 across all four outings).  Of course that might not be the last Tomlin sees of RM as his HR/FB during their time together was 6% meaning another visit could come shortly to push that 4.14 ERA even higher.

—

May 29th & June 3rd – Zach Britton (BAL) – This rookie has nasty stuff, there is no doubting that, but he is still learning how to use it in his debut season.  He gets a lot fewer strikeouts than you would expect (5.2 K/9 for the year) which he offsets with a massive groundball slant (54%), but still with that filth you would expect more missed bats.  He used fanciful BABIP (.242) and LOB% rates (80%) to mask his underwhelming 1.6 K/BB and take a 2.35 ERA into his May 29th start at Oakland.

Little did he know that the Regression Monster was in the house that night and before he knew it he had given up six runs on 10 hits and three walks while striking out three in five and two-thirds innings.  Unhappy with his effort, the Regression Monster followed Britton back to Baltimore for his next start and aided Britton in yielding seven runs, five earned, on six hits and three walks while again fanning three.  Britton came out of the two-start ordeal with an ERA nearly a full run higher at 3.33.

—

May 30th, June 5th, June 12th – Wade Davis (TB) – The RM was busy early in May, but he sent some minions to check in on Davis who made it through April and his first May start having allowed just one home run on 84 flyballs allowed (1.2%) en route to a 2.77 ERA.  Further exacerbating things were 3.9 K/9 and 1.2 K/BB rates.  In other words, he has no business with such a sparkling ERA.  The minions chiseled away at the ERA pushing it to 3.71 before their fearless leader stepped in.

The Regression Monster started a three date avalanche of fun with Davis spanning three cities (Tampa Bay, Seattle and Baltimore) during which Davis allowed 16 runs in 15.7 innings (9.19 ERA) thanks in part to four home runs allowed (out of 40 flyballs, 10%!).  The three stop bender with the Monster has left Davis bruised & battered and on waiver wires across the nation.  He may have to undergo some bullpen therapy or check into the rehab clinic in Durham.

—

May 30th – Kyle McClellan (STL) – The beauty of the Regression Monster is that his private jet allows him to get from place to place, even same day, with ease.  Sometimes he can be a little rough, though.  Sure, McClellan didn’t necessarily deserve his ill begotten 3.11 ERA thanks to a meager .250 BABIP and fully unsupported by a paltry 4.5 K/9 and 1.8 K/BB, but the Regression Monster probably went too far.  He munched on McClellan’s ERA so furiously, leaving it at 3.86 after a 7-run, 4 inning outing, but he also rendered him infirm resulting a stint on the disabled list.

—

June 4th, June 9th, June 15th – Trevor Cahill (OAK) – Sometimes the Regression Monster is overbooked for a summer and the tour doesn’t reach a more than worthy destination.  Such was the case with Cahill in 2010.  Cahill had a fantastic season on the surface with a 2.97 ERA, but he didn’t rest easy over the bulk of the summer.  He often slept with one eye open knowing he could soon be visited by a pitcher’s worst enemy: the Regression Monster.  By season’s end, Cahill had a 1.9 K/BB rate, .236 BABIP and 77% LOB% which all suggested that his ERA should’ve been much closer to 4.00 than sub-3.00.

Cahill decided to tempt fate again thinking that raising his strikeout rate from 5.4 to 6.7 K/9 would remove him from the scrutiny of the RM, yet he was still too brash almost rubbing another sub-2.0 K/BB rate in the RM’s face which then drew attention to his raised but still below average .263 BABIP.  Remember the jet we discussed earlier?  Well that’s new in the Regression Monster’s transportation fleet, upgrading from an exquisite tour bus, and it allows him to book many more gigs throughout the season and he had Cahill in the crosshairs.

Over his last three starts, Cahill has seen his BABIP skyrocket to .375 along with a sub-1.0 K/BB rate that resulted in 15 runs allowed in 14 innings (9.64 ERA) and a 2.21 WHIP which almost matched his 2.31 ERA prior to the tour dates.  Remember, Regression Monster sees all.  It’s not a matter of if but when.

—

June 6th & June 12th – Tyler Chatwood (LAA) – These tour stops were booked in advanced or else the Regression Monster would have definitely fit LA into his schedule sooner.  Chatwood practically begged for a visit by toting a 0.72 K/BB rate in his first 42 innings yet still felt entitled to a 3.67 ERA with it.  It took some finagling, but RM hastily prepared a trip to Oakland after which he thought an understanding had been reached.

Chatwood was pasted for seven runs, five earned, in two and third innings.  He responded by striking out six and walking two in his next start so the RM thought everything registered despite such a quick visit.  But some only learn the hard way and Chatwood struck out four while walking five in his next two starts spanning 13 innings yet had the audacity to compile a 2.03 ERA in the process, but the already-scheduled tour dates were on the horizon and the week-long event was a doozy.

Chatwood was torched for nine runs in 10.7 innings (7.59 ERA) along with a .406 BABIP.  Not even his 10:4 strikeout-to-walk rate could save him.  Now his season ERA sits at 4.20 and he is now gainfully employed on your local waiver wire.

—

Various stops (Correia) & June 12th – Kevin Correia/Charlie Morton (PIT) – Sometimes you play a city so many times it feels like home and over the past 15 years or so the Regression Monster has essentially lived in Pittsburgh so while he knew the lay of the land well, it was almost a bittersweet return as he nearly let his emotions get the best of him and prevent him from doing his job.  Still he knew what he had to do.

The Regression Monster has played some smaller venues with these Pirates instead of opting for an extended festival-like stay.  A stop a month with Correia is all the RM has been able to fit in as he is torn between letting the success continue and fulfilling his duties as the Regression Monster.  That said, Correia’s ledger is evened up after the handful of quick visits now has his ERA at 3.73 and a FIP only slightly higher as his modest BABIP and HR/FB luck are counterbalanced by a below average LOB%.

With Morton, the Regression Monster has continually rescheduled the tour date due in large part to his co-worker’s, the Regression Goddess, malfeasance throughout all of 2010.  The Regression Goddess, as you might have guessed, has her own tour throughout the year whereby she essentially does the opposite of the Regression Monster by identifying those being unfairly punished abnormal BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rates that leaves their ERA and WHIP mangled despite skills and talent to the contrary.

She let Morton rot on her watch as he had a .353 BABIP, 53% LOB and 18% HR/FB in 80 major league innings leaving him with a 7.57 ERA and 1.73 WHIP.  As of this writing, he has yet to accept to her multiple apologies.  She was suspended without pay late last year while an investigation into the matter took place as there was a rumored past romance between Morton and the Goddess.  The findings were inconclusive.

The two have spent an inordinate amount of time together this year perhaps reigniting the flame of a past love and Morton has shaved nearly four and a half runs off of his ERA thanks in large part to an absurd groundball rate of 64%, but also a career-best in LOB% (75%) and HR/FB (4.7%).  Despite the amazing groundball-inducing ability, the 1.3 K/BB, thanks to a sub-5.0 K/9, the Regression Monster was handcuffed and instructed by his boss, the Luck Dragon, to remedy the matter.

And his June 10th visit added more than a half run to Morton’s ERA taking it to the 3.08 mark from 2.52 after six runs in four innings with just a single walk and strikeout.  Message boards are abuzz with rumors of another Pittsburgh stop for the Regression Monster at some point this summer.

—

June 14th – Alexi Ogando (TEX) – It is hard to blame Ogando for this RM tour stop.  As a reliever, he is used to a wild west mentality when it comes to BABIP, LOB and HR/FB.  Basically anything goes in the small sample size arenas they inhabit.  This is what happens when you don’t read your syllabus in Starting Pitching 101.  The Regression Monster held out as long as he could, but a .210 BABIP and LOB% well over 80% was just too much, especially with an outing against the Yankees on tap.

The RM had a blowout bash for Ogando and the results were six runs in just 1.7 innings adding .61 to his ERA and 0.06 to WHIP keeping both at still magnificent 2.71 and 0.96 figures.  There are a few more Regression Monster stops being planned in the Arlington area later this summer.

—

June 14th – Josh Collmenter (ARI) – No way the old tour bus makes it from New York (where Ogando was) to Phoenix in one evening making the jet a godsend.  Phoenix wasn’t in the pre-tour plans, but the emergence of Collmenter made it a must-stop and as soon as possible.  I don’t know what it is about Joshes, but they bring out the best in the Regression Monster.  You’ll remember Tomlin was toting a .175 BABIP before the Cleveland Bonanza and apparently Collmenter didn’t catch on with the exact same figure, but perhaps he thought he could outsmart the RM by starting the season in the bullpen.

Again, the Regression Monster knows ALL. And he certainly didn’t appreciate Collmenter pushing his BABIP down to .167 as a start with meager 5.0 K/9 resulting in a 1.05 ERA in 34 innings.  The Regression Monster started would could be a series of events in Arizona the first of which saw Collmenter allow five runs in five innings allowing eight hits, walking three and striking out four.

The season ERA is now 1.86, but his FIP is nearly a run and a half higher and his xFIP is almost two runs higher so follow the Regression Monster tour updates on Twitter for more details about upcoming Seattle stops.

—

The Regression Monster: Coming to a Stadium Near You!

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Here & There, Humor, Regression Monster, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 4 Comments »

Tuesday: 06.14.2011

The Next Wave: 21 (and a half) AAA Hitting Prospects

The turning of the calendar to June brings about the crossing of the nebulous Super 2 deadline that often keeps big time minor league prospects down a little longer than their talent necessitates.  As such we have seen an influx of prospects recently including names like Mike Moustakas, Anthony Rizzo, Dee Gordon and Jemile Weeks.  They join a host of blue chip youngsters already up including but not limited to Moustakas teammates Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy as well as Gordon teammate Rubby de la Rosa.

Though several highly anticipated players are up, “prospect season” is really just getting going and there are a lot of potentially high-impact players who could be called up in the coming weeks to help plug the holes of a fantasy team near you.  Depending on league format and roster size, you may want to roster some of these guys, trade for them or merely put them on a watch list and hope to anticipate their call-up just right to acquire them at the lowest price possible.  Some of them are further away, but you can never predict injuries so it is best to know these names for the summer.

First off, we will look at AAA hitters which offers 21 (and a half) names to keep an eye on.

Collin Cowgill (ARI, OF) – A mid-tier prospect within the D’Backs organization pegged as a 4th OF-type, Cowgill is embarrassing pitchers during his first tour of AAA.  He has been strong all year, but it is his white-hot start in June that is garnering attention: .524/.565/.857 w/8 XBH, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB and 13 R in 42 AB at AAA-Reno.  He may well be a product of the environment, but a .372 AVG and 1.053 OPS with 19 SB (in 21 tries) are impressive anywhere.

Honorable Mention goes to teammate in Reno, Wily Mo Pena.  He’s the “half” as he is no longer a prospect at 29, but he is a longtime favorite of mine and his .341 AVG, 1.106 OPS and 18 HR could earn a trip back to majors soon so I wanted to include him.  Gerardo Parra is playing some great D in left, but they might trade the D for a bat like that.

Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE, 3B) – Cord Phelps was called up to platoon with Orlando Cabrera, who can’t hit righties at this point and it is time to do the same with Chis and Jack Hannahan.  Unlike Phelps, Chisenhall has a sharp platoon that marries perfectly with Hannahan’s.  Chisenhall’s inability to hit southpaws shouldn’t keep him in the minors when a major league solution is so readily available, especially as Cleveland’s grasp on the division continues to rapidly slip away.

Jason Kipnis (CLE, 2B) – Another strong Indians prospects who continues to impress at every stop along the minor league trail.  His .830 OPS in 58 AAA games is his lowest mark at any level in three years a professional.  While it is great that the Indians are flush with major league ready prospects, it is unfortunate that none of them are on the pitching side which was always going to be the downfall of this hot start.

Yonder Alonso (CIN, LF) – I still think a trade is the best move for him as I don’t see how he deserves a shot in Cincinnati’s leftfield as an unproven prospect when Chris Heisey is already performing well above average and should be handed the job regularly.  All the talk of how mangled Cincy’s leftfield is boggles my mind as Heisey should play against righties and Jonny Gomes against lefties.  Problem solved.

Alonso, meanwhile, should be traded to shore up other areas on the team (pitching).  If he is dealt, there is little doubt that the trading team would bring him up immediately.  He has proven all he can in AAA with an .853 OPS in 159 games.

Zack Cozart (CIN, SS) – I’m not sure there is a level of excellence with the glove that Paul Janish could realistically reach, even at shortstop, to merit putting his bat in the lineup on most nights.  He has a 44 OPS+.  44!!!  Not only that, but Cozart has a strong glove so it’s not even a major hit.  He’s in the midst of his best season as a pro (.328 AVG, .870 OPS) and seemingly cannot be worse than Janish at this dish so a call has to be imminent, right?

Juan Francisco (CIN, 3B) – He’s not really a prospect at this point because he has been up each of the last three seasons including for nine games already this year, but all three samples are tiny (a high of 55 AB) so we haven’t really seen what he can do.  He has big time power potential, but he’s also very impatient and with Scott Rolen healthy, lacks a place to play.

Devin Mesoraco (CIN, C) – He’s also blocked at the big league level, but it’s by a 35 and 30 year old tandem so neither is the long-term solution and perhaps a trade of one could be imminent (to San Francisco perhaps?) opening the door to usher in the Mesoraco era slowly.  His prospect status was dimming before an explosive 2010 season that landed him 64th on Baseball America’s Top 100 list this preseason.  He has backed it up with a .330/.412/.569 line with 8 HR and 30 XBH (out of 65 total) in 197 at-bats.  Needs a trade (of one of the incumbents) or an injury, so he’s more of a wait-&-see unless you have a minor league roster in your league.

Clint Robinson (KC, DH) – The biggest problem with Robinson is right there next to this team in the those parentheses back there.  He’s already a DH.  That is a bit of a problem on just about any team, but apart from being locked behind David Ortiz on Boston or whichever of the two catchers in Detroit is DH’ing, he is on the worst possible team to be a DH-only player.  His former AAA teammate, Eric Hosmer, has gone up and grabbed the first base job in KC, but that squeezed incumbent Billy Butler to DH leaving nowhere for last year’s Texas League Triple Crown winner to go.

He isn’t quite winning the PCL Triple Crown, but his .349 batting average, 17 home runs and 50 RBIs are all near the top of all three categories.  He has maintained a steady 17-18% strikeout rate in his five years as a pro and he has improved BB/K each (save a dip to .44 in 2009) year from 0.45 in his first year to 0.79 this year.  Despite his giant season last year and a big start to this year, he is still seen as a middling prospect at best.

The best comp I can think of based on the reports I have read is a Jack Cust-type trading some of the power and walk rate of Cust for more batting average and fewer strikeouts all the while struggling to even get major league playing time.  I know full-well you can’t overrate minor league numbers, but damn his are good.  His best bet at this point is a trade out of organization, but somewhere in the American League so he doesn’t have to play the field.  (Pretty sure I just wrote the longest write up on the lowest ceiling of all the guys listed.)

Trayvon Robinson (LAD, OF) – Robinson is a perfect example of why you have to be careful with Pacific Coast League numbers.  He has already far exceeded his 2010 home run total of nine by clubbing 13 in the very hitter-friendly confines of Albuquerque.  He has a particularly odd split so far this year hitting to a 1.224 OPS in day games, but just .791 at night.  His speed is the more bankable asset in his arsenal as the power exists, but at a more modest level than his .538 SLG so far this year suggests.  His patience seems to have regressed significantly this year, too.  After a four year rise up to 0.58 BB/K last year (up from 0.27 in 2007), he’s back down to 0.26 this year.

Mat Gamel (MIL, OF) – The former 34th ranked prospect (2009) has become something of an afterthought having failed to top 96 games played in each of the past two years, but still just 25 he remains a huge power threat with an excellent hit tool (.303/.374/.522 w/11 HR in 228 AB this year).  The problem is that he might be a 25-year old DH.  Thought to be a Ryan Braun-lite based on his prodigious power and lack of defensive ability, the places where he could be hidden on the diamond are already taken, including one spot by Braun.  Thus his big league future with the Brewers remains cloudy.  Keep him on your radar.

Caleb Gindl (MIL, OF) – I liked what I saw out of him in the Arizona Fall League, although the three game sample was tiny, but the smallish (5’9”) Gindl packs a punch, especially against righties (.838 OPS; .917 v. RHP including all 6 of his HR).  He could feasibly play any of the three OF positions without embarrassing himself, but there isn’t a natural opening anywhere on the big league team with two big bats at the corners and Carlos Gomez’s exemplary glove essentially being his only value-add.  At 23, there is no rush so he might not get a shot until late this summer, if at all in ’11.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis (NYM, OF) – Probably more of a 4th OF long-term, Nieuwenhuis could get a shot sooner than later as he performs well at AAA (.298/.403/.505; best season as a pro so far) and Jason Bay struggles to hit his weight (.208 v. 210 lbs.).  Lucas Duda was first in line as he already has MLB experience and he’s up now, but if he doesn’t better his .611 OPS in 108 career AB, Nieuwenhuis should get a look.  He does a little of everything a la someone like Chris Denorfia.

Jesus Montero (NYY, C) – He’s gotten worse month-to-month in his second tour of AAA and some have suggested that perhaps he is bored a la Hanley Ramirez back in 2005 during his second go-round in AA in the Boston system.  Montero is hitting a decent .289, but there has been no patience and remarkably underwhelming power.  I would still keep a close eye on him because of the Hanley note.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he got the call to catch a bit and/or DH and then ended up catching fire right away.

Michael Taylor (OAK, OF) – Remember him?  The former top 30 prospect took himself off the radar with a rough 2010 season, his first full one in AAA.  Injuries exacerbated things, but he just couldn’t get right at the plate.  He missed April, but he’s back now and having a bit of a resurgence with a .297/.360/.440 line in 91 AB so far.  It wouldn’t take much for him to be an improvement over some of the outfield bats in Oakland so if he sustains himself, he could be up shortly after the All-Star break.

Adrian Cardenas (OAK, IF/OF) – The long-time infielder has become more an outfielder/DH-type in 2011 which definitely cuts into his value, but he is having his best season with the bat and that is all Oakland really needs to hear to be interested.  Plus with Jemile Weeks finally called up and Scott Sizemore traded over from Detroit, second and third base might finally have solutions that can push .700 OPS (which would be light years ahead of Mark Ellis’ .533 and Kevin Kouzmanoff .615 marks).  Cardenas has always been a .300ish hitter with a great batting eye and that has continued this year with a .329 average and 25 walks against just 20 strikeouts.  Hideki Matusi and David DeJesus are severely underperforming so Cardenas, still just 23 years old, could get a shot.

Dustin Ackley (SEA, 2B) – Ackley hates the month of April.  Not sure if there was some awful girl named April that wrong him or what, but he has hit .182 in 170 at-bats during April of his first two professional seasons.  In all other months, he is hitting a combined .305 in 594 at-bats.  I saw Ackley during Arizona Fall League in November and I was thoroughly impressed with his awesomeness, but a lot of outlets don’t see him as a high-impact hitter.

I’m not a professional scout and it was a small sample, but he looked great.  He could hit to all fields, had enough pop (mid-teens home run power, but a crapton of doubles) and of course absurd on-base percentage thanks to a tremendous eye.  I don’t care how good Jack Wilson’s defense is, he has a .528 OPS and Ackley should be playing second base for the Mariners, especially since they are in sorta-contention with their pitching staff.

Alex Liddi (SEA, 3B) – Liddi is a good example of why you can’t also focus solely on the numbers of a minor leaguer.  Context is so important.  He’s a 22-year old at AAA, which isn’t Jesus Montero-young, but still pretty young and he is holding his own.  He is having his best power season since his 2009 Cal League MVP, but his 34% strikeout rate is a career-high and would be problematic at the big league level.  He is an AL-Only pickup initially if he gets the call, but he has significant potential.  They did make a significant investment in Chone Figgins and it is hard to replace him because of the contract, but at some point a team cannot eat a .190 average and .494 OPS especially if you want to be a contender.

Thomas Neal (SF, OF) – It is merely an alphabetical coincidence that these last five players are all in offensively-starved organizations and Neal could benefit from the Brandon Belt injury.  Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand aren’t impressing at all with the bat in left and the former is terrible with the glove.  Neal has shown power before, but it went from home run to doubles power last year and has been the same this year.  He isn’t a *special* prospect, but that doesn’t mean he can’t have plenty of value as an everyday player who can give something across the board.  Think Martin Prado from last year (.307, 15 HR, 5 SB, R & RBI depending on lineup spot) with a lower batting average until he establishes himself at the bigs.

Desmond Jennings (TB, OF) – OK, Tampa Bay, enough with Sam Fuld.  It was a fun 15 minutes, but now it is time to get your best hitting prospect on the field and contributing to your lineup.  Jennings languished a bit last year in his first AAA stint dealing with nagging injuries for most of the year, but this is another example of not basing everything purely on the numbers because despite a .756 OPS Jennings was still doing a lot of stuff well last year.

He looks great so far in 2011 already popping three times as many home runs (9) as all of last year with a healthy wrist, getting on base a ton and displaying his absurd elite-level speed.  His strikeouts have ticked up to a career high 18%, but his walk rate has matched his career mark of 11%.  He is likely owned in most leagues with a  bench, but on the off-chance that he isn’t go get him now.

Brett Lawrie (TOR, 2B/3B) – Similar to Belt in San Francisco, Lawrie had fantasy owners salivating at the possibilities of what he could do at the major league level and then he got hit in the hand with a pitch.  Now Belt was already in the majors, but Lawrie was set to come up within the next day or two when it happened.  Originally they thought he would avoid the disabled list, but he hit the minor league DL just over a week ago.  He should come to the majors almost immediately after his activation and then everyone can resume drooling.

I am cautiously optimistic about his potential, as he delivers across the board talent with a .354 batting average, 15 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  But it was in the remarkably hitter-friendly environment of Las Vegas and the PCL and then of course he is still just 21 years old.  He isn’t a guarantee to come up and Ryan Braun the big leagues.  So temper your expectations and the price you are willing to pay to roster him.  Remember, everyone went nuts over Jason Heyward (with good reason as he appears to be a star in the making), but he needed 142 games to hit 18 home runs and steal 11 bases and no one had Lawrie as a better prospect.

Want a better example?  Try Lawrie’s current teammate in Vegas Travis Snider.  In 2009, he hit .337 with 14 home runs in 48 games (Lawrie’s numbers have come in 52 games) before coming up to the majors to hit .241 with nine home runs in 77 games.  That is why I cannot stress enough that you need to temper expectations with the shiny new toy and also not do something stupid like cut a perfectly productive player to roster Lawrie or any of these other prospects.  If you have a bad player or an open spot, then by all means, but don’t hurt your team by getting rid of a sure (or at least more sure) thing just for the small chance at something greater.  (OK, this was longer than the Clint Robinson capsule.)

Matt Antonelli (WAS, IF) – Remember him?  This one-time top 50 prospect started with San Diego making his major league debut at 23 years old back in 2008.  Coming into 2008 he was seen as a 5-star prospect by Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein thanks to a great 2007 (.307/.404/.491), but that year the wheels came off as he posted a .657 OPS at AAA before playing just 60 games over the next two years missing all but one last year thanks in large part to a hand injury.

Now 26, he has battled back and he has been raking in his first 22 games at AAA in the Washington organization.  He has a .358/.422/.531 line with two home runs (eight extra base hits in all), two stolen bases, six runs scored and seven driven in.  His strong batting eye appears to be intact as he has drawn nine walks against 12 strikeouts.  The only downside in this comeback story is that the three infield positions he plays are all blocked by cornerstone pieces of the future in Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa.  The latter two are struggling a bit in various areas of their game, but at 25 and 24 years old, respectively, they are going to be given a chance as the Nats aren’t going anywhere.

In that 2008 write-up of Antonelli, Goldstein mentioned he was going to get reps in the outfield that Spring Training mostly to see if that would be a fit for the future.  Well it’s the future and that could be avenue to explore to get his bat in the lineup if he reaches the big leagues in the near future.  Of course Laynce Nix is raking (against righties) and Jayson Werth isn’t going anywhere so maybe a trade is truly the best chance.

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Monday: 06.13.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 12th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Sea – Michael Pineda has faced 3 tms a 2nd time w/a 4.66 ERA & 1.19 WHIP, yet still a 10 K/BB. ERA elevated by DET start. Don’t worry.

Det – Austin Jackson starting to drive the ball more w/2 2B & 4 3B since being given a June 1st off-day: .372/.426/.605 during the stretch.

Det2 – Protection or coincidence? Brennan Boesch hitting .307/.350/.551 w/all 8 of his HR & 25 of 34 RBI in 3 spot ahead of Miggy.

Ari – Willie Bloomquist = old Sam Fuld. This is why you don’t buy into these guys & sell em ASAP: .190/.227/.214, 0 SB since return from inj.

Flo – Chris Volstad has a 4.29/7.56 Hm/Rd ERA split, but has only allowed >3 once at home. 6.9 K & 2.4 K/BB = worthy home spot-starter.

Cle – 5/22 I said: J.Tomlin has largest ERA-FIP diff in MLB. He will implode bc .175 BABIPs & 85% LOB%s don’t last. Trade now… for anything.

Cle2 – Since 5/22: Josh Tomlin has 8.61 ERA, 1.78 WHIP in 23 IP allowing 6 ER in last 3 starts & 8-9-10-12 H in the 4 start stretch. Hope you sold.

NYY – A-Rod was hitting .259/.359/.463 a month ago w/5 HR. Since 5/12: .310/.355/.569 w/8 HR, 18 RBI & 3 SB… stop writing him off, folks.

Chc – The Chicago Empty Batting Avgs: Fukudome-Castro-Barney-Aramis all hitting .286 or better. All are pacing 10 or < HR & <75 RBI. Sell.

Phi – Top 3 SP (Halladay-Hamels-Lee) continue to lead Philly (5-0 in Jun) as finally whole lineup has struggled (.639 OPS-24th rk’d) so far.

Bos – The Red Sox have scored more runs in 10 June gms, 87, than Seattle scored in 26 May gms. Bos 9-1 in June despite 1 SP w/sub-4.50 ERA.

Bos2 – Dustin Pedroia sure isn’t playing like he’s injured: .389/.522/.583 w/10 RBI & 7 R in June. Only 1 hitless gm, 4 multi-hit ones.

Tor – Not even sure how Kyle Drabek is in the majors at this point. Has 3+ BB in 13 of 14 starts & more BB than K in 73 awful IP.

Tor2 – By the way, Brad Mills has a 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in hitting-crazy Las Vegas w/8.3 K/9 in case you’re looking for obvious replacement.

Tor3 – Eager to see how many K lovers hold strong w/Brandon Morrow. ERA now 5.63 w/boom or bust season: 4 4+ ER starts; 4 2< ER starts.

TB – On April 28th DH, Ben Zobrist had 2 HR, 10 RBI. Since: 2 HR, 11 RBI in 38 G. Hitting .386/.460/.591 in June. Another HR surge upcoming?

Bal – Mark Reynolds is a must-own. 3B is paper thin & power is light league-wide. On pace for 30-90-10(sb), you eat the .203 avg for that.

NYM – Hope you got Angel Pagan when he was reco’d in 5/29 Twids. His own rates were ESPN 35%, CBS 65%, Y! 36% then.

NYM2 – Pagan (cont.) Rates are way up as he’s remained on fire since return: .349 avg, 5 sb, 9 r, 7 rbi in 15 g. Big help to middle of Mets lineup.

Pit – Horrid start buried James McDonald‘s ERA (10.12 after 4 GS), but 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 & 2.0 K/BB in 51 IP (9 GS) since. Buy.

Atl – A modest hot streak for most could be a start of something for Dan Uggla after big wknd: 4-6, 3 BB, 4 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR in the #2 hole.

Hou – How good has SP been in ’11? Bud Norris‘ 3.67 ERA is 100 ERA+. With a 9 K/9, he’s a must-start even on cusp on below avg ERA, though.

Oak – Not yet an all-format must-start, but Scott Sizemore adds depth to ugly 3B wasteland & he’s hitting early on w/OAK: 6-19 in 5 G w/HR & 4 RBI.

CWS – Phil Humber‘s value gets a major boost if recent K stretch is at all legit. 5.5 season K/9, but 7.0 in 22 IP across last 3 GS. Monitor.

Tex – Derek Holland has skills worth betting on despite modest season-long #s. 3 ugly, 3 great in last 6 incl. 7.9 K/9 & 2.9 K/BB in 40 IP.

Tex2 – Holland (cont.) HRs killing him in latest 6 starts having allowed 2 in ea. of 3 blowups & 0 in 3 gems. 24 y/o so more ups & downs coming.

Min – Francisco Liriano‘s last 4: 26 IP, 29 K, 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 2 W. Still leery, but confidence growing as 3 were rd starts, 4th was v. TEX.

StL – Jon Jay hitting .309 w/some pwr & speed (pacing 10 hr/12 sb). Held .350 BABIP for 105 G in ’10 so maybe .353 this yr can hold. 50%+ avail.

Mil – Prince Fielder has been insane the last month: .330/.458/.742 w/11 HR, 29 RBI, 23 BB to 11 K… SO locked in. Mil 22-7 during stretch.

LAD – Why is Rod Barajas owned so scarcely across all 3 major outlets? On pace for 19 HR. Doesn’t have enough AB for his .233 AVG to hurt much.

Col – CarGo hitting .452/.485/.710 in 7 gms as leadoff hitter incl. 4 straight multi-hit gms in LAD series. Perhaps the jump-start he needs.

LAD-Col – 63 runs scored in 4 gm LAD-Col series, yet just 11 scored in first 4 inn. of all 4 gm. Sweet lives, relievers… 2.6 R/IP in 20 IP from 5th on.

KC – Alex Gordon still on pace for career yr, but it’s built mostly on hot April. Might be getting going for June: .273 AVG & .377 OBP.

LAA – Mark Trumbo has flaws (.299 OBP), but pacing for 27 HR & 15 SB w/potential OF elig. based on lg (6 GP). His value lies in OF, not 1B.

Was  – In 13 GS, Jordan Zimmermann has re-faced opp. 4x. Just an oddity.  Has allowed >2 ER once since May 1st (3 ER @ ATL, but also 11 K).

SD – It’s a whopping 4 gms, but what stands out about Anthony Rizzo early on is the patience. 5 BB & 4.6 pit/PA in first series ever.

SD2 – Rizzo (cont.) He also went 3-for-10 w/a 2B, 3B and HR. Great debut, hope it lasts for the highly touted prospect.

Cin – Scott Rolen carrying an ugly .240/.291/.380 line in 150 AB. Still nice leather, Juan Francisco toting .309 AVG, .819 OPS in AAA.

SF – Twidbits Curse? Touted Tim Lincecum in 5/22 ST’s. Since: 7.66 ERA, 1.59 WHIP in 22 IP. Still 19 K, 2.7 K/BB & 93 MPH FB velo. intact.

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Sunday: 06.12.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 11 Monday-Friday

It was a big week for Trolling the Wire so I hope you took advantage this week.  In case you were curious, I do hop on board with my own recommendations and I used of eight of the 13 to sweep the pitching categories in my daily transaction head-to-head league.  Unfortunately, my hitting couldn’t hold a candle to Prince Fielder, David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury on the other ballclub so I took the split week.

Anyway, enough about my team, let’s see if I can help your teams again next week.  After back-to-back weeks of Trolling picks topping a 4.00 ERA, the bounce back bring a sub-3.00 ERA and a single week high of six wins.

MONDAY:

Randy Wolf (MIL @ CHC) – Strong skills (6.8 K/9, 2.2 K/BB), a weak opponent and a hot streak (2.59 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) in his last five starts makes him our only Monday start on a lean schedule.

TUESDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM @ ATL) – He has allowed more than 2 ER just twice in his last 10 starts.  In fairness, there is also a 6 R/2 ER outing in there, but even if you added back those four earned runs his ERA in that span would be 3.19 instead of the sparkling 2.63 we see.  Wasn’t striking out a lot of batters early on, but has fewer than five just once since April 30th, good for an 8.0 K/9 in 46 IP.

Bud Norris (HOU v. PIT) – Ownership rates dipped during rough stretch, but as I mentioned in Twidbits his strikeouts make him enticing even with an ERA that vacillates between slight above average to slightly below.

WEDNESDAY:

None – There are two borderline plays I could make, but they both against their split so I don’t want to force it.  If you’re desperate for a play for go with Chris Narveson or Dillon Gee, both on the road, but I can’t fully endorse them so don’t bark at me on Twitter if they fail.  Both are pitching very well, with Narveson having smoked St. Louis last time out and Gee knocking down the Pirates on the road, but they both excel at home so far this year so I’ll sit this one out.

THURSDAY:

James McDonald (PIT @ HOU) – I’ll quote my Sunday Twidbit to back J-Mc this week: “Horrid start buried James McDonald’s ERA (10.12 after 4 GS), but 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 & 2.0 K/BB in 51 IP (9 GS) since.”  Astros aren’t terrible offensively, but this is more of a vote for McDonald than it is picking on Houston.

Edwin Jackson (CWS @ MIN) – Back-to-back strong starts and solid record since his horrid April (5.86 ERA): 3.22 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB.  His 1.42 WHIP is ugly, but a .340 BABIP is driving that more than poor control which usually hurts Jackson.

FRIDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. SD) – Maddening up and down season so far this year to the point where it wouldn’t be surprising if somehow San Diego got to him on the heels of a complete game shutout against Texas.  I don’t think that will happen and I’m more than willing to play the favorable odds here, but some of the weird fluctuations in his performance this year have left me scratching my head.

Brad Hand (FLO @ TB) – This a pure odds play.  Tampa Bay has been terrible against southpaws this year (.675 OPS/22nd ranked, 60 runs/25th ranked) which is exactly the paw that Hand throws with so we’ll see if one of Florida’s best prospects can exploit a weakness and play on the Rays’ penchant for striking out against lefties (147/3rd most in MLB).

Weekend picks later this week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 06.10.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 10 The Weekend

A quick look at the weekend pickups.

SATURDAY:

John Danks (CHW v. OAK) – His ownerships rates have plummeted and understandably given the depth of pitching and how mightily he was struggling, but he was really sharp in his last outing albeit against the Mariners.  The Athletics offense is no better so there is no reason he can’t perhaps get on a run.

James McDonald (PIT v. NYM) – While his season ERA is near 5.00, he has been strong over his last eight starts allowing more than three runs just once posting a 2.82 ERA with an 8.2 K/9 rate in that span.  Plus, he is much better at home than the road so I see him staying strong against the Mets.

SUNDAY:

Rick Porcello (DET v. SEA) – Only the Red Sox have gotten to him for more than two runs since April 15th.  He has a 2.60 ERA in 55 innings over that span along with a 6-1 record.  He comes with a modest strikeout rate so if that’s your need, he’s not for you.  If you want quality innings and a legitimate shot at some wins, then Porcello can help.

Tim Stauffer (SD v. WAS) – Stauffer’s success this year isn’t a surprised, he was one of my favorite sleepers coming into the season, but his strong 7.3 K/9 rate is surprising.  I was expecting a decent mid-6.0 rate with tons of groundballs and utilization of his home ballpark.  So he has exceeded expectations in that respect.  One area he has kind of underwhelmed has been taking advantage of Petco Park.  His ERA split is almost equal: 3.54 home, 3.62 road.  But the skills are strong regardless of venue and it’s kind surprising that he’s owned in less than 6% of ESPN leagues.

Results and Week 11 picks on Sunday.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 06.10.2011

SP List: Notable Exclusions

On yesterday’s updated Starting Pitcher List for the rest of the season, you have may have noticed some names weren’t included that you might have otherwise expected on a list running 116 deep.  Here are those names along with some information on why I didn’t include them.

Dustin Moseley (SD) – He doesn’t do anything especially well.  He isn’t a strikeout guy, he isn’t an elite control guy and he doesn’t use Petco Park to his advantage (3.70 ERA; 2.52 road ERA).  I just don’t see how he can keep his 3.16 ERA all year and I’m not going to hold onto his sub-5.0 K/9 and try to find out.

Josh Collmenter (ARI) – I can’t find anyone who believes in his stuff.  He is succeeding (quite a bit, in fact) off of deception and guile at this point with his windmill delivery.  He at least does something really well, unlike Moseley, he doesn’t walk anybody (1.0 BB/9).  Alas, it is still a small sample and it would be a minor miracle for him to continue at this clip or anything like it.

Clayton Mortensen (COL) – Even if he hadn’t just lost his job, his 1.1 K/BB would’ve been enough to keep him far away from the list.

Tyler Chatwood (LAA) – Chatwood is like, “1.1 K/BB, huh?  Overachiever.”  He is toting a jaw-dropping 0.97 mark in 71 innings of work.  How his ERA is 3.79 and not 9.73 is beyond me.

John Lannan (WAS) – He is one of the strikeout “aces” on this list at 5.4 K/9.  That is about the best that can be said for him right now.  His strikeout rate has risen yearly since 2009, but so has his walk rate.  The groundball rate is very strong, but he will do more harm than good the rest of the way.

Jason Marquis (WAS) – When he walked five in 34 innings during April, he had some people fooled.  Industry people, even.  They fell for the ol’ “since it’s our only sample it must mean something” routine.  I won’t name names because we all make mistakes, but I thought we were all beyond falling for his tricks (although, he definitely pulled a quarter out of my ear).  Since April Marquis has walked 15 in 41 innings which yields passable 3.3 BB/9, but not when it’s paired just 18 strikeouts.  Gimme back my quarter and leave me alone, Jason.

Carlos Villanueva (TOR) – He is the true strikeout ace on this list at 6.8 K/9, but that includes his relief work which accounts for more than half of his innings this year (24 to 22).  His K rate is 5.6 as a starter against 7.8 out of the bullpen.  His ERA as a starter should be better than the 4.84 it is now based on the skills he has displayed, but he is still at best a borderline guy.  Don’t be fooled by the composite numbers.

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Thursday: 06.9.2011

SP List Update – 40% Mile Marker

As we creep toward the 40% marker in the season (24 teams have played at least 38% of their games, the Yankees are the low mark at 36%), I feel it is time to offer up a revamped starting pitcher list so you can assess your arms with more than half of the season left.  There is still plenty of time to make a move so unless you have a team ravaged by star player injuries, don’t give up.

In the SP Guide, I broke the arms down in five tiers ranging from aces to deep prospects.  For the update, we’re just going 116 arms deep with fantasy-usable guys.  These 116 were broken up into four tiers and the tiers are just a little different than you will remember from the guide.  With the pitching-heavy landscape the way it is, tier three as it was constructed this preseason would be too large so I broke it up into two with the new tier four essentially bumping down the old four & five into five & six.  Is that confusing enough?

Tier 1 is still ace-level guys.

Tier 2 is near-ace-level guys.

Tier 3 is all single & deep mixed league must-start guys.

Tier 4 is matchup guys is most formats except the deeper single leagues.

I will also soon post a “Watch List” of guys who aren’t currently in rotations or even in the majors, but could make an impact during the summer.

Tier 1

There isn’t much change her and that’s on purpose.  This tier is reserved for the truly elite and two-plus months isn’t enough to boost someone up unless they were already toting a rock-solid skills profile and were Tier 2 arms from the preseason.  There were only four changes within this grouping from the preseason: two in, two out.  (Note: I’m not going to comment on everyone in this update, espec. w/the elite guys.)

Roy Halladay (PHI) – Duh.

Felix Hernandez (SEA)

Tim Lincecum (SF)

Cole Hamels (PHI) – I did my best to get y’all on the Hamels Train.  I put him here in the preseason; hope you’re reaping the benefits.

Cliff Lee (PHI) – Oh my jeezorz, his ERA is 3.62!  And because of that he is probably my #1 pitching trade target.  Why?  How about a 5.0 K/BB.  Sure it isn’t last year’s otherworldly 10.3 K/BB mark, but he does have a 10.3 in his profile this year: his K/9.

[T1 Addition] David Price (TB) –I had a little concern about his draft day cost given his tendency for walks, but that hasn’t been a problem at all this year (down from 3.4 to 1.4 BB/9) leading to a 5.9 K/BB.  He reversed his ERA/FIP trend whereby his FIP is now 2.71 (3.42 last year) and his ERA is 3.35 (2.72 last year).  Invest.

Dan Haren (LAA)

Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

Justin Verlander (DET)

Tommy Hanson (ATL)

Jon Lester (BOS) – He moved down a bit within the tier, but nothing in his skill set has me particularly worried.  The home runs are more a product of a high HR/FB than anything else.  The bump down is more of a reward to the others than a disparagement of Lester.

[T1 Addition] James Shields (TB) – The second T1 addition is another Ray.  His results are finally starting to match his elite skills.  His 83% LOB% rate will dwindle, but there is a strong chance that his 14% HR/FB will as well thus any ERA deterioration should not be too drastic.  This is why we draft skills and not previous season ERAs.

Jered Weaver (LAA) – His ERA is 3.29 since posting a 0.99 in six sparkling April starts.  The former should be the expectation going forward with anything better being a bonus.

Matt Cain (SF)

CC Sabathia (NYY) – The strikeout rate continues a three-year decline, but a walk rate decline in concert has left the K/BB rate intact.  He’s always been good at limiting home runs, but his 0.4 HR/9 so far this year is inflated by a 4.4% HR/FB so I wouldn’t bet on a continuation.  Still a bankable stud, but toward the bottom of that class.

T1 Roundup: Price, Shields added; J.Johnson, Carpenter dropped

 —

Tier 2

Plenty of change here.  Most of the movers in and out of this tier have shown significant skills growth or deterioration that isn’t completely out of left field thus a move could reasonably be made after just 40% of the season.

Ricky Romero (TOR)

Shaun Marcum (MIL) – The reverse split from last year seems to have been an anomaly two months into this season allowing him to go from good to great in his debut NL season.

Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Caused a panic for some back in April, but skills are back in check over his last six starts.  Expect him to keep chiseling away at that 3.72 ERA over the summer.

Zack Greinke (MIL) – The career-best strikeout and walk rates may not hold, but the 62% LOB% definitely will not hold meaning his 4.83 ERA will improve dramatically.

 [T2 Addition] Chris Carpenter (STL) – He was squeezed out of Tier 1 because the massive amount of hits allowed is at least partially due to factors beyond his control: the defense, but the skills remain very strong so he is still a strong Tier 2 and the buying window is rapidly closing if it hasn’t already.

Ricky Nolasco (FLO) – Are we going to have another season where his elite skills don’t yield equivalent results?  How does he give up 15 hits to the Dodgers??  I still love the talent enough to bet on him.

Ian Kennedy (ARI)

Daniel Hudson (ARI)

[T2 Addition] Josh Johnson (FLO) – Dropped from Tier 1 because injury concerns hang overhead and threaten his value.  This ranking is still a bet on Johnson, to be honest.

Chad Billingsley (LAD)

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – He drops within the tier, but it was laughable to see him getting dropped in leagues throughout May.

Mat Latos (SD)

Matt Garza (CHC) – The stuff is still ahead of the results, but he’s been punished by ugly .364 BABIP and 63% LOB% rates, too.  I was worried about his flyball ways in Wrigley, but a drastic change from 36% to 50% groundballs has been paired with a miniscule 5% HR/FB to avoid gopheritis issues thus far.  Regression to his HR/FB rate will almost certainly be mitigated by BABIP and LOB improvements which could make him an excellent second half bet.

 [T2 Addition] Jaime Garcia (STL) – For some reason this Cardinals groundballer hasn’t been bitten by the drop in defensive quality like Carpenter.  That doesn’t mean it won’t happen at some point, but skills improvement has driven his big start.  If it weren’t for an 11-run thrashing in 3.3 innings at the end of May, he’d be a strong contender for NL starter at the All-Star Game.

[T2 Addition] Josh Beckett (BOS) – All the bad luck suffered in 2010 has come back to him in the first two-plus months of 2011.  Skills remain strong, but not 2.01 ERA strong.   

[T2 Addition] Anibal Sanchez (FLO)

[T2 Addition] Jhoulys Chacin (COL) – Traded some Ks for a ton of groundballs (from 47% to 59%) and has become one of the more underrated arms in the game.

[T2 Addition] CJ Wilson (TEX) – Cut more than a walk off of his rate so far while adding some strikeouts.  His skills now match the 3.35 ERA he posted in 2010.

[T2 Addition] Trevor Cahill (OAK) – He has added strikeouts, but also walks.  His skills still say his ERA should be nearly a run higher than it is right now.  Last year he managed to avoid regression, be careful if you bet on a repeat going forward.

[T2 Addition] Gio Gonzalez (OAK)

Max Scherzer (DET) – His skills are intact when compared to last year’s.  We have seen him go on these skids before, hopefully this one doesn’t require a trip to Toledo.  Stay the course.

Hiroki Kuroda (LAD)

Gavin Floyd (CHW)

T2 Roundup: Carpenter, J.Johnson, Garcia, Becketter, Sanchez, Chacin, Wilson, Cahill, Gonzalez added; Oswalt, B.Anderson, Lewis, Lilly, Dempster, Danks, Baker, Myers, Liriano dropped

  —

Tier 3

The T3 from the preseason was 78 players deep and now this T3/T4 breakup is 79 deep.  Like I said, I basically just split the two as there is a new pitching landscape that we are dealing with now.

Michael Pineda (SEA) – The skills say he is no doubt legit, but he has also had luck on his side, too.  That combined with the dreaded “second time around the league” and the threat of an innings cap later in the year bump him down a little lower than most probably would’ve expected to see him.

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS)

Brandon Morrow (TOR) – Filthy stuff remains, but the rest of his skills profile is out of whack.  I’ll bet on the Ks and near-3.0 K/BB rate yielding better than a 4.50 ERA the rest of the way.

Roy Oswalt (PHI) – He has lost nearly three strikeouts per game.  His 7% rise in groundball rate (to 53%) isn’t enough to alleviate fears of those lost Ks.  Plus in innings cap leagues, it is tough to trot out 5.3 K/9 for 170+ innings.

Ted Lilly (LAD) – Ks have dipped a bit, but BBs have come down in concert meaning the ERA should trickle down soon as well.

John Danks (CHW)

Wandy Rodriguez (HOU)

Scott Baker (MIN) – Home runs are a bit higher than usual for Baker as are his walks, if both regress toward the mean his 3.86 ERA should see some worthwhile improvement.

Erik Bedard (SEA) – It’s never been about talent, only health.

Brian Matusz (BAL) – Only two starts so far this year, but I’m sold on the talent.

Ryan Dempster (CHC) – Skills are intact from last year, but an ERA 2 runs higher?  That’s coming down.

Madison Bumgarner (SF)

Justin Masterson (CLE) – He was my favorite Indians pitcher before the season and remains so now.

Jair Jurrjens (ATL) – Count me as a non-believer in his 1.75 ERA.  The skills just don’t support it.  Sell now.

Bartolo Colon (NYY) – Durability is my only concern.  Honestly, if he was 32, he’d be in Tier 2 with these skills.  You may want to sell just to avoid the unknown.

Tim Stauffer (SD)

Bud Norris (HOU) – Walks were down nicely in the first month, but have since bumped back up to four.  The Ks remain intriguing enough to roster what amounts to a below average ERA at this point (yes, a 3.67 ERA yields a 99 ERA+).

Chris Narveson (MIL) – Is that you, Dave Bush?  Needs to learn how to work with runners on (66% LOB%) and the ERA will plummet.

Edwin Jackson (CHW) – Absurdly high BABIP is really hurting him at this point.  The skills are exactly in line with last year.  Second half surge is in order.

Jeremy Hellickson (TB) – The ERA and WHIP match the lofty expectations, but the skills sure don’t meaning the regression could hit hard unless his skills jump back toward his 2010 levels.  Keeper leagues hold strong, re-drafters sell.

Johnny Cueto (CIN) – Ks have slipped yearly since his rookie season and while the groundball rate has risen from 42% to 53%, I’m certain the 2.27 ERA can’t hold barring major changes.

Clay Buchholz (BOS)

Jonathan Sanchez (SF)

James McDonald (PIT)

Colby Lewis (TEX) – Holy home run, Batman!  His 2.0 HR/9 should decline, but you know how it can get in Arlington during the summer.  Plus the strikeouts haven’t held from last year.  Tread lightly.

Alexei Ogando (TEX) – He may well pitch a full season without issue, but it won’t be at a 2.10 ERA.  The skills control is elite (2.0 BB/9), but other than that it’s been a lot of favorable circumstance (.210 BABIP, 88% LOB).

Kyle Lohse (STL)

Tim Hudson (ATL)

Rick Porcello (DET)

Jonathon Niese (NYM)

Ryan Vogelsong (SF) – Ks were slipping throughout May, but then got seven against Colorado in first June start.  Skills support success, but not a 1.68 ERA.

Charlie Morton (PIT) – Disgustingly elite groundball rate can sustain success, but probably not this much. And while it can also cover low strikeout rate, that doesn’t do innings-cap fantasy leaguers much good.

Aaron Harang (SD)

Derek Lowe (ATL) – K’d 5+ six times in first nine starts, just once in last five.

Dillon Gee (NYM) – Drastic home/road ERA splits, yet strikes out 1.3 more batters per game on the road.

Doug Fister (SEA) – Not just a Safeco product so far this year.

Chris Capuano (NYM)

Randy Wolf (MIL)

Jake Arrieta (BAL) – Could have a big second half a la teammate Matusz last year.

Jeff Karstens (PIT)

Jason Hammel (COL)

  —

Tier 4

For mixed leagues these are the kind of guys you can stream with good matchups and who are at least one skill away from being full-time options.  These guys are owned in just about every AL/NL only league.

Chris Volstad (FLO) – A lot of skills improvement early on being hidden by disastrous 16% HR/FB rate.  Monitor.

Edinson Volquez (CIN) – A strikeout an inning guys should be on a roster so if you have a reserve spot, he’s worth holding to see if the control improves over the summer.

Philip Humber (CHW) –This is not a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher barring a skills change.

Ervin Santana (LAA)

Derek Holland (TEX) – Remember, he is still just 24 so he is still growing.  This is his first season as a full-time starter.

Zach Britton (BAL) – There will be ups and downs all summer.

Jeremy Guthrie (BAL)

Brett Myers (HOU)

AJ Burnett (NYY)

Brian Duensing (MIN) – Knew he’d regress from last year, but skills have held better than I thought so the 4.73 ERA should come down.

Randy Wells (CHC)

Rubby de la Rosa (LAD) – I really like this kid.

Travis Wood (CIN)

Carlos Carrasco (CLE)

Mike Leake (CIN)

Paul Maholm (PIT)

Jason Vargas (SEA)

Josh Tomlin (CLE) – Regression Monster go NOM-NOM-NOM!  Last 3 starts: 18 IP, 16 ER.  Great control, but little else.

Carlos Zambrano (CHC)

Francisco Liriano (MIN) – Fantasy Russian Roulette.

Zach Duke (ARI)

Danny Duffy (KC) – Been crushed just once, I think he could have a nice summer.  Watch him carefully.

Fausto Carmona (CLE)

Nick Blackburn (MIN) – I just don’t get it… this guy has an endless supply of smoke & mirrors.

Jeff Francis (KC)

Phil Coke (DET)

Brad Penny (DET)

Kevin Correia (PIT) – 6th in the NL for Starting Pitcher Run Support, but in fairness, also 8-of-14 quality starts and has allowed 2 or fewer in all eight.

Joel Pineiro (LAA) – If he can get back to his career 5.5 K/9, he is a lot more usable.

Wade Davis (TB)

Josh Outman (OAK)

Tom Gorzelanny (WAS)

Matt Harrison (TEX)

Juan Nicasio (COL)

Javier Vazquez (FLO) – Strikeout an inning the last five starts, but two 6 ER outings.  Tough to figure out right now, but I’d still monitor.

Carl Pavano (MIN) – Sub-4.0 K rate… innings-cap league or not, that’s tough to roster for more than a matchup here & there.

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