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Monday: 05.28.2012

Trolling the Wire Notes: Week 10

Early games made it difficult to get any Monday picks in with the holiday, but the rest are updated in the sidebar.  Some of the picks are thinning out, but the TTW All-Stars include Felipe Paulino, AJ Burnett, Erik Bedard and of course, Edwin Jackson.  Jackson’s becoming less available, but he is still on enough wires to fit into the threshold.  I still like Anthony Bass despite a hiccup last week.  Meanwhile, JA Happ looks like he might be emerging as a solid option to rely on going forward for those who stream starters.  I was surprised to see Trevor Cahill down at 15% at ESPN, but I guess his peripherals have been pretty weak thanks in large part to his elevated walk rate after walking 3 in each of his last three starts.

Last week saw 12 of the 23 recommendations pick up a win.  That has to be an all-time high for TTW.  The ERA was nice at 3.53, but the WHIP was high at 1.40 thanks in large part to the aforementioned Bass as well as Ross Detwiler and Juan Nicasio getting smoked.  Detwiler lost his rotation spot to Chien-Ming Wang.  Not sure how I missed RA Dickey‘s second start against San Diego on Sunday.  I feel like that wasn’t listed when I checked the list last week because I had him for his May 22nd start in Pittsburgh.  Maybe it was an oversight on my part or a schedule change later on.  He was amazing in both, but now he’s on too many rosters too qualify.  And finally, Mike Minor has a lot to prove before reappearing on a TTW slate.

Last Wk: 12 W in 23 starts, 3.53 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 133 IP

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 05.22.2012

Take Notice: Anthony Bass

Anthony Bass made his major league debut in June of 2011 as a second-tier organizational prospect (#22 for the Padres according to Baseball America before the season) making the jump from AA in order to make a spot start.  He went five solid innings allowing five hits and just one run though he walked four and struck out just one en route to a win.  Considering that the start came in Colorado and he allowed 12 flyballs to just seven groundballs, things could have gone much worse especially with the four free passes.

He was sent to AAA where he spent the rest of June before re-joining the big league club.  He spent July, August and most of September as a reliever who Bud Black wasn’t afraid to use for more than an inning.  In 12 of his 24 outings, he went at least an inning and a third.  He went two-plus innings in eight of them.  I don’t think it is out of bounds to say he was run-of-the-mill during the stretch other than the fact that he could go multiple innings, an eroding trait of relievers or perhaps it is an eroding desire of managers to use relievers for one-plus.

He had a 1.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 and 1.4 K/BB in his 33.3 innings with 4 holds.  The work earned him a pair of starts to close out the season.  The first: in Colorado.  He was even better this time around once again going five but allowing just two hits and one walk with a strikeout while holding the Rockies scoreless and earning his second win.  He ended his season with another five inning start, this time at home, during which he allowed a run on five hits with two walks and two strikeouts taking a no-decision for the effort.

The composite numbers yielded a solid 48.3 innings by ERA (1.68), but the other numbers told a different story as his 1.28 WHIP, 4.5 K/9 and 1.1 K/BB pointed toward a 4.62 xFIP.  He left 92% of his runners on base which is an excellent way to depress your ERA.  Less because of his performance and more because the Padres strengthened their system, Bass fell to #28 coming into 2012 according to Baseball America.  They worried his lack of consistent command would relegate him to the pen for the foreseeable future.

During Spring Training he threw 15 innings, but only got two starts.  Though it was a tiny sample, he walked just one batter while striking out nine.  I tend to put virtually zero stock into Spring Training numbers, but I don’t make decisions for the Padres and they obviously saw something they liked as he made the Opening Day roster and soon became the front-runner to take the injured Tim Stauffer’s rotation spot and be the fifth starter in the rotation.

He won the job outright and after a pair of two-inning outings to start the season, he made his first start on April 12th.  We have seen a new Bass so far.  He has six or more strikeouts in six of his eight starts and one of the other two was his debut during which he was limited to just 4.3 innings but still fanned five.  All told he has 51 strikeouts in 49 innings as a starter (he didn’t strike out or walk anyone in his four relief innings).

He has gone away from relying so much on his fastball shifting the mix over to his changeup and still seldom used sinker.  He has kept the majority of his 2011 fastball velocity and his mid-90s max isn’t much different, either, which is impressive considering the majority of his 2011 work came out of the bullpen where virtually everyone throws with more velocity knowing the workload will be shorter.

His command, the facet of his game that Baseball America thought might leave him a reliever permanently without massive development, have seen a sharp improvement leading to many more strikeouts.  He has seen a 6% rise in called strikes with his fastball and 8% with his changeup.  He is throwing the slider, his strikeout pitch, in the zone 4% more often and generating 3% more whiffs so while he has thrown 50 fewer sliders at this point than he did all of last year, he has just four fewer whiffs.

With two strikes last year, he was getting a lot of swings, but not many misses.  Fastballs were put into play 33% of the time, changeups were at 50% and the slider was at 17%.  All three are down significantly in 2012 with the fastball at 26%, the changeup at 32% and the slider at 15%.  Last year in two strike counts, he got a called third with the fastball just 8% of the time and the changeup just 5% of the time.

Control is putting the ball in the zone, command is putting the ball where you want it in the zone.  In 2012, his called strike percentage in two strike counts is up to 11% with the fastball and 18% with the changeup.  I didn’t include the slider because he doesn’t get called strikes with it (1 in ’11; 0 this year) and doesn’t really need to since it is his swing-and-miss pitch.  Look at the heat maps of his two strike pitches to get an even better idea of the difference between command and control.

Courtesy of ESPNTruMedia.com

Those pictures are all of his pitches skewing things a bit with this point about command since we’re focusing on the fastball and changeup.  Furthering the point another way, last year he populated the middle of the zone with his fastball and changeup in those two strike counts hitting it 42% of the time.  This year he is down to 28% in those middle three squares if you think of the strikezone as a nine square box.  Meanwhile he is pounding the bottom of the zone with those two pitches 36% of the time, up from just 17% last year.

We are seeing the emergence of Bass right before our eyes.  He has a three pitch mix (with a few sinkers sprinkled in) built on a solid low-to-mid 90s fastball and a swing-and-miss slider.  The changeup has a nice 9-11 MPH split from his fastball and continues to improve.  It is his least used pitch by a significant margin, but it is also more than a show me pitch already, too.  The 24-year old righty isn’t a PETCO product either, as his ERA at home is 3.09 compared to 2.57 on the road.  His skills improve away from PETCO Park as well suggesting he knows he can’t rely on a spacious field to cover his mistakes.

The 53-inning sample is a short one, I’ll grant that, but there are some real changes in Bass’s approach that suggest he is plenty real.  The fantasy community hasn’t exactly bought in en masse just yet, though.  He is on just 18% of rosters at ESPN, 29% at Yahoo! and 54% at CBS.  He has a real shot at becoming this year’s Cory Luebke which is an easy comp as they are teammates, though Luebke is lost for the season with an injury.

They both had similar pedigrees in the minors statistically, though Luebke found himself much higher on the prospect ranking at Baseball America checking in at #6 before last year’s breakout.  They both transitioned through the bullpen.  They are both displaying strikeout stuff that wasn’t present in the minors thanks in large part to wipeout sliders.  Luebke’s arsenal is a bit deeper, but I am making a general comparison, not a dead on 1:1.

Check your wire, there is a good chance that Bass is available.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 05.21.2012

Trolling the Wire Notes: Week 9

Lost some guys this past week as their availability rates shrunk taking them out of consideration for Trolling.  The causalities include:

Max Scherzer – knew that wouldn’t last long and 15 Ks will accelerate the process.

Ervin Santana – another one I knew wouldn’t last and a strong 2-start week sopped up his remaining availability.

Jeff Samardzija – he has really transformed himself this season as he has K’d just fewer than 6 twice in his 8 starts.

Chris Capuano – took his first loss in San Diego last week, but that hasn’t stopped him from being on 100% of ESPN league rosters.

Bud Norris – surprised and bummed about this one as he usually floats under the radar because of the Astros, but impossible to ignore his three win stretch during which he has a 0.47 ERA in 19 innings.

Check the sidebar for this week’s picks.

—

Last Wk: 8 W in 29 starts, 4.23 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 164 IP

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 05.16.2012

On Ross Detwiler

I am chronically a year early on players.  As the 2012 seasons unfolds, we get a chance to see who I was early on last year.  One such case has been Washington Nationals starter Ross Detwiler: see here and here.  I’m not exactly sure why I’m so often early, but Detwiler is hardly the first example (I was all over Matt Kemp for 2010 to name another, and thankfully I stayed the course for 2011).  OK, enough semi-humblebragging.  Better to be early than late, right?

The 26-year old southpaw was 6th overall pick in the 2007 out of Missouri State University.  He actually made his major league debut that September throwing a clean inning against the Atlanta Braves.  He spent all of 2008 in the minors, but then spent the next two years split between the minors and majors, though his 2010 season was cut short due to a busted hip.  He struggled to bring his minor league success (2.78 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB in 120 IP) to majors putting together a modest 105 innings with a 4.78 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 5.1 K/9 and 1.3 K/BB primarily as a starter with some bullpen work sprinkled in, too.

Part of the issue was that his 2.78 ERA in the minors during those two years likely skewed expectations toward the high side since his FIP outputs were significantly higher at each stop.  Even the peripherals likely raised expectations for Detwiler since the composite was pretty strong, but his work in AAA was a good bit below the total with a 7.3 K/9 and 2.1 K/BB.  Lefties as a whole can often take a bit longer to develop than their right-handed counterparts, though, so I kept faith in Detwiler heading into last year.  He showed some signs in 2011 finally cutting into his hit rate at 8.6 H/9, a career-best for any season whether in the minors or majors.

He has accumulated another 105 innings since the start of 2011 posting a 2.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 and 2.3 K/BB with this year’s strikeout and walk rates improving again to 6.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 (2.8 K/BB).  What has spurred the emergence of the promising 26-year old and more importantly, can he sustain it?

PITCH MIX

Detwiler is a four-pitch pitcher relying predominantly on his sinker and four-seamer and balancing them out with a curveball and changeup.  For his career, he has used the sinker 42% of the time, the four-seamer 29%, the curveball 15% and the changeup 14%.

That general split has held relatively firm every year save 2010 when he was throwing the four-seamer at 38% and the sinker just 26% while both secondary pitches were up at 18%.  This year he has shifted a bit taking 5% from the changeup and dispensing it to the four-seamer (now 32%) and curveball (17%), which is his best secondary pitch.  This shift has played a role in his success and based on what we have seen, even more curveball usage going forward would likely be a good thing for Detwiler.

VELOCITY

From 2009-2010, Detwiler was an 89-92 MPH guy with his fastballs with the ability to touch 93-94 MPH every now and then.  His sinker was 88-91 MPH while the four-seamer was 91-92 MPH.  In 2010 when he was using the four-seamer more than ever, it was actually at its slowest, registering a 90.7 MPH average.  His changeup sat 83-84 MPH for those two seasons while his curveball was a slow curve sitting 76-77 MPH.

Since 2011 he has seen a rise in velocity with all of his pitches.  The four-seamer now operates 93-95 MPH with 96+ in his back pocket when he needs it.  The sinker is up to 91-93 MPH now, too.  Meanwhile the slow curve has become more of a power curve elevating from 76-77 MPH in 2009-2010 to 79-81 MPH the last two years.

His changeup sat 83-84 MPH previously, but now resides 84-86 MPH.  He has always had about an 8.5 MPH split between the fastball and changeup except for 2010 when his four-seamer velocity dipped.  That year showed just a 7.7 MPH split.

STRIKEOUTS

The uptick in velocity since 2011 has no doubt been a contributing factor to his improved performance across the board including this year’s career-high 6.4 K/9 through 39 innings.  No one is going to confuse someone with a 6.4 K/9 for Nolan Ryan, but it’s nearly a strikeout higher than last year’s 5.6 K/9 and it is his first season over 6.0 after spending most of his minor league career at 8.0 K/9 or better.

He had a 6.8 K/9 in 142 innings at AAA so this newfound level might be his peak or close to it, but he would hardly be the first pitcher to add strikeouts as a major leaguer.  Minor league numbers can help give you an idea of how someone will perform, but they aren’t locked in stone indicators.  Madison Bumgarner spent two years on the wrong side of 6.5 K/9 before reaching the majors where he has a 7.6 K/9 career mark including an 8.4 K/9 in 205 innings last year.

The curveball has long been his strikeout pitch and the faster version of 2011-2012 is generating even more strikeouts.  In 2009-2010, he got a strikeout on 27% of the plate appearances that ended with a curve, but the last two years he is up at 40%.  When looking at why he has enjoyed a rise in Ks this year specifically, it is actually his fastball and changeup that are accounting for the jump.  The pair of pitches yielded a strikeout on just 10% of plate appearances that ended on one of them last year, but this year that mark is up to 13% spurred mostly by the changeup going up 5% to 14% in 2012.

GROUNDBALLS

The sharpest improvement for Detwiler in the early part of 2012 is the amount of groundballs he is inducing.  His sinker is the most effective it has ever been, inducing groundballs left and right en route to a career-best 54% rate (career 43% mark coming into 2012).

He has always been a groundball guy with a better than 1.0 groundball-to-flyball ratio, but this year’s contact against him has been overwhelmingly weak as the rise in groundball rate has come right out of his line drive rate which is down to 10%.  From 2009-2011, he carried an astronomically high line drive rate between 20% and 25%.

His line drive rate is going to see an uptick as the season progresses as 10% just isn’t sustainable.  The lowest line drive rate for an ERA qualifier going back to when that kind of data is available (2002) is 13.3% for Derek Lowe in 2002.  There have only been 12 seasons (spread among 11 pitchers as fake Fausto Carmona has two of them) under 15%.

The fact that it will rise and likely cut into his BABIP and subsequently his ERA isn’t a problem, though. I don’t think anyone expects him to finish the year with a 2.75 ERA and 1.09 WHIP anyway so some regression doesn’t make him a fraud.  How much regression is obviously the real question.

RUNNERS ON

Even if he adds 5-6% to the line drive rate (most of which will go for hits as I believe the league BABIP on LDs is something like .700), his BABIP should remain on the right side of .300 as BABIP has never really been an issue with him as you saw from the chart above.  The problem is that not enough men who get on are left there.  Last year he enjoyed a 79% LOB rate, easily his highest rate ever and the first time in his career that he topped 67%.

Though off to his best start ever, he is still allowing 35% of his base runners to reach home.  League average is around 72% left on base.  He can cancel out most, if not all of his line drive rate regression by leaving more runners on base.  He doesn’t even need to push as high as league average to do so, either.  Of course, just because league average is 72% doesn’t mean pitchers are magically entitled to the mark.

Sometimes it is a matter of focus with runners on that ends up as the missing link for pitchers, while others have markedly different wind ups and stretch positions.  For Detwiler, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between his wind up with the bases empty and his stretch with runners on so perhaps it is mental for him.

This GIF isn’t great, but my computer was being wonky as hell and this was like my 12th attempt so we’re going with it.  (I definitely need a new computer now that I’m a full-fledged GIFer… or is it GIFist… jeez, could anyone possibly care less about this last sentence?).

Detwiler has allowed a career .693 OPS with the bases empty as opposed to a .751 OPS with runners on.  Last year his split was .691 to .721, but this year he’s at an impressive .480 with the bases cleared compared to .730 with men on.  He showed last year that he can leave men on at an above average clip.  If he can even get to average this year, he will mitigate the pending regression in that line drive rate.

OUTLOOK

Though we are just 39 innings into the season, there are reasons to be excited about what Detwiler has shown especially if you extend it back to last year which is really when he started to show signs of being worth the 6th overall pick.

Any pitcher who can miss some bats and keep the ball down is likely to be successful on some level.  He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he misses enough at this current rate and I think there is the potential for a few more (perhaps pushing as high as 7.0 per game) if he continues to rely more on that curveball as a finisher.  Meanwhile his groundball rate is elite at 54% and allows him to carry a mid-6.0s strikeout rate yet remain very successful.

There haven’t been any wholesale changes to his approach this year (velocity, pitch mix, stance on mound, new pitch, etc…) that you would point to and say “this is why he is excelling”.  Rather it has been a maturation process that started back in 2011 when he began displaying more control as well as improved command.  The command has taken another step forward this year as continues to pound the zone, but leaves far fewer pitches “fat” where hitters can destroy them which is evidenced by the lowered line drive and elevated groundball rates.

He is becoming a better pitcher with more room to improve, too.  He just crossed the 200-inning threshold as a major leaguer this year, though, so temper expectations as he is still learning on the job.  From a fantasy perspective, trading Detwiler isn’t a bad idea if you get a nice offer, but don’t think that just because his numbers are excellent you can “sell high”.

Or at least sell high in the traditional sense.  A lot of fantasy managers probably didn’t even know who he was coming into the season so I doubt they are going to be ready to trade off a mint to acquire him after 39 big innings.  That doesn’t mean you can’t move him and get value in return.  Just don’t expect something commensurate with a 2.75 ERA and 1.09 WHIP if it were coming from someone like Zack Greinke or Cliff Lee.

Keep in mind that Detwiler was a last round pick or waiver pickup which play into his valuation.  That means if you can get some 16th-18th round guy, that is a pretty hefty return.  You might just want to hang on to your gem who is actually paying off, though, as so few ever do.  Even if he ends the season with a 3.75 ERA in 175 innings, it’s not like he will be getting slaughtered from here on out to get to that level.  He would post a 4.05 in 135 innings the rest of the way.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Breakdown, Fantasy Baseball, GIFtastic, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

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Tuesday: 05.15.2012

The Best Pitches of April – Relief Edition

Earlier this month, I brought you the Best Pitches of April for starting pitchers.  That was back on May 2nd.  I wanted to share the same for relievers.  Ideally going forward, I will present both the starters and relievers early in month as opposed to one iteration in the middle of the month.

To determine the “best” pitches of the month, I will be using FanGraphs Pitch Values and then supplying GIF-based examples of those of pitches.  FanGraphs offers pitch values on fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, changeup, split-finger and knuckleball pitches, but for this exercise, we will be looking at the first six as no reliever throws a knuckleball.

I’ll list the top overall value for each pitch, the top value in the other league (so if 1st place is from an NL guy, I’ll list the top AL guy even if he’s further down the list) and also the top surprise listing which is of course arbitrary to my own tastes.  GIFs will be included for the Top Overall in each pitch only.

FASTBALL

  • Top Overall – Matt Thornton (Value 4.7, Usage 78%, Velocity 95.8 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Josh Lindblom (4.0 [3rd-best], 67%, 92.5 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Duane Below (4.2 [2nd-best], 54%, 90.4 MPH)

Thornton has long had a great fastball registering pitch values of 17 and 19 in 2008 and 2010, respectively.  In fact it was the emergence of his fastball in 2008 that took him from a solid reliever to an elite one resulting in a 2010 All-Star bid.  His fastball helped him to a 0.82 ERA in 11 innings in April with 10 strikeouts.

Here is a series of fastballs from Thornton to Oakland’s Cliff Pennington on April 25th in the bottom of the 10th inning.

SLIDER

  • Top Overall – Alexi Ogando (Value 3.5, Usage 38%, Velocity 84.7 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Jon Rauch (3.4 [2nd-best], 43%, 82.8 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Craig Stammen (2.5 [5th-best], 31%, 84.6 MPH)

Ogando would be a mid-rotation starter on most teams and no worse than a closer on many others.  On the insanely deep Texas Rangers, he is a bridge reliever pitching crucial innings to get to Mike Adams and Joe Nathan.  There is a ton of value in his role as managers often save their closer, ostensibly their best reliever, for save situations only.

With Ogando, manager Ron Washington gets to use his best reliever when it actually matters most: those especially sticky 6th, 7th and 8th inning situations.  Perhaps the best part is that Ogando can give you more than three outs without incident, in fact the best deployment of him should include more than an inning of work.

Here are some sliders from Ogando to both Brent Morel of the White Sox on April 6th and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers on April 22nd.  The White Sox game is in the bottom of the 7th and the Tigers game is in the bottom of the 8th.

CUTTER

  • Top Overall – Mike Adams (Value 3.5, Usage 57%, Velocity 87.8 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Josh Roenicke (1.6 [4th-best], 32%, 83.9 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Jason Isringhausen (2.4 [3rd-best], 35%, 88.4 MPH)

Of course Texas relievers had two of the best pitches in April.  This team is just so ridiculously stocked top to bottom.  I remember when the Rangers were talking trade with the Padres and everyone assumed they would go for Heath Bell.  When it turned out they “only” got Adams, some thought they settled.  Even before this year’s implosion with Bell, it was obvious they got the much better reliever.  That said, they paid a premium in Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland so they deserved to get the better reliever.

Here is some of Adams’ work with the cutter against Ben Zobrist of Tampa Bay in the top of the 8th inning of an April 28th meeting.

CURVEBALL

  • Top Overall – Kris Medlen (Value 3.4, Usage 11%, Velocity 78.5 MPH)
  • Top Other League – J.P. Howell (3.0 [2nd-best], 39%, 79.0 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Tom Wilhelmsen (2.1 [t5th-best], 31%, 78.7 MPH)

Medlen doesn’t quite reach Ogandian levels, but he is another favorite of mine who shows the embarrassment of riches that the Braves have on their staff.  He would definitely be starting on a lot of teams, but the Braves have the luxury of using him as a multi-inning middle reliever.

Hopefully manager Freddie Gonzalez lets Medlen absorb a substantial workload so he doesn’t run Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters into the ground again this year.  Medlen had outings of 2.0, 2.7 and 3.0 IP in April giving up just two runs in 13 innings of work.

Here is his curveball working against Justin Turner in an Opening Day (April 5th) meeting with the New York Mets in the bottom of the 7th inning.

CHANGEUP

  • Top Overall – Kris Medlen (Value 2.2, Usage 20%, Velocity 82.1 MPH, Split from FB 10.0 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Craig Breslow (1.6 [2nd-best], 15%, 78.6 MPH, 12.5 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Matt Maloney (1.8 [3rd-best], 20%, 81.2 MPH, 7.8 MPH)

See why I think this guy could be starting?  He had two of the best pitches among relievers in the month of April.  He hasn’t been getting strikeouts at the level we are used to seeing from him (career 7.5 K/9, just 2.8 K/9 in April), but he has the capability and I think they will come as the season  progresses.  He notched 4 Ks in his 2.7 inning outing against the Mets on April 17th.

Here is his changeup against a pair of Pirates, Alex Presley and Garrett Jones, from an April 27th meeting in Turner Field during the top of the 8th and 9th innings.

SPLIT-FINGER

  • Top Overall – Jose Arredondo (Value 3.6, Usage 46%, Velocity 84.8 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Joel Peralta (1.2 [4th-best], 15%, 78.6 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Ryan Mattheus (1.7 [2nd-best], 20%, 81.2 MPH)

Remember when Arredondo was awesome?  OK, awesome might be a stretch, but his rookie year saw him throw 61 innings with a 1.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a 10-2 record.  That is all awesome, but the 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB don’t necessarily marry up with the performance which is why that season probably falls just short of awesome.  He followed it up with a 6.00 ERA in 45 innings.  He missed all of 2010 to injury before resurfacing with Cincinnati last year.

He has become a useful entity in the bullpen again notching a 10.1 K/9 in April, the highest of his career (which he has continued through May thus far).  He only allowed runs in one of his 10 April outings, too, yielding a 2.53 ERA in 10.7 innings.

Here is his splitter

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Best Pitches, GIFtastic, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 05.14.2012

Trolling the Wire Notes

I just wanted to post a quick message letting you know that you can now find the Trolling the Wire picks in the sidebar before an accompanying post is put out.  In fact, there won’t always be an accompanying article outlining the reasoning behind the picks (like these two last week), but  I will at the very least post the picks in list form similar to how it appears in the sidebar since the sidebar isn’t always easily accessible in mobile formats.

If you have questions about someone I would urge you to comment on that post, tweet me @sporer or email me.  The reason that there won’t usually be an article anymore is because I want to dedicate more time to the other content like the pitcher breakdowns or “best pitches of the month” stuff you have seen this year.  By no means did I want to sacrifice Trolling as it is very popular and I think very useful, too, so this is the best way to still distribute it in my opinion.  Not to mention, I utilize a lot of the same guys and it gets a bit repetitive finding ways to tell you that Edwin Jackson should be on your team.

The picks are listed in order of confidence so if you have a choice between the 1st and 4th listed on your waiver wire, I like the 1st listed more.  I’ll include a guy if he’s 30% or more available at a primary outlet (ESPN, Y!, CBS) when I post.  For example, Max Scherzer might seem crazy, but he’s only 70% owned at ESPN and 65% at Yahoo! so he makes the cut.  I don’t suspect we’ll see him available too much longer, but for now he should be plucked.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Roster Management, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 05.11.2012

Trolling the Wire – Weekend Edition

Here are the weekend selections:

SATURDAY

none

SUNDAY

Jeff Samardzija (CHC) – He’s been excellent this year without question.  I was skeptical when he debuted with a gem, felt justified for that skepticism when he followed it up with a pair of 5 ER outings, but now can’t help but be impressed by his last three outings during which he has yielded just 2 ER in 21 innings.  He also has 23 strikeouts in those three starts with a pair of wins.  (@ MIL)

A.J. Burnett (PIT) – He followed up his disastrous outing against the Cardinals with eight strong (2 ER) striking out 10 and walking just one.  He was left out to dry in that meltdown, but I don’t think it completely ruins his season.  Not only can be useful for your fantasy team the rest of the way, but it isn’t a stretch to suggest he finishes the season with a sub-4.00 ERA.  Let’s say he’ll go about 175 innings this season after missing a pair starts at the outset.  He’d only need to be a 3.64 ERA pitcher in his remaining 151 innings to finish with a 3.96 ERA for the season.  He’ll be fine.  (vs. HOU)

Edwin Jackson (WAS) – If you participated in Trolling last year, then you aren’t surprised to see Jackson here.  He was the most often recommended spot starter here last year.  To read/hear some write/speak about him, I can’t help but find him underrated.  You would think he has had a 4.50 ERA in the last three years as opposed to two sub-3.80 seasons along with a 4.47 one.  And in that latter one, he surged late posting a 3.24 ERA in 11 starts with the White Sox.  This year he has his best peripherals ever with a 7.9 K/9 and a 2.1 BB/9 which is a major improvement over anything he has ever done.  (@ CIN)

Jonathon Niese (NYM) – A pair of 4 BB starts bookend his 6 outings thus far raising his walk rate, but otherwise his peripherals are still sharp while his xFIP continues to suggest his ERA should be lower.  A trip into the cavernous Marlins Stadium seems like a nice remedy to get back on track after an OK start in Philly.

 

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Roster Management, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Stats, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 05.8.2012

Trolling the Wire: Week 7

I spent of the first month of the season debating a different distribution method for the Trolling the Wire column that appeared weekly last year.  After deliberation, I’m just going to continue distributing as I did last year, through this site.  Some leagues allow same-day pickups so I’ll cover some guys for tonight along with the rest of the week.

(pitchers are ranked in order of confidence on a given day)

TUESDAY

Joe Blanton (PHI) – Those dismissing his complete game shutout against the Braves because it came after the marathon barn-burner the night before are missing out with Blanton.  He looked great before that start.  His strikeout rate is down to 5.4 which I don’t love, but his walk rate is on a five-year decline down to 0.8 BB/9.  (vs. NYM)

Edwin Jackson (WAS) – Last year’s TTW most used arm, Jackson is least available of the four listed (41% available at ESPN), but he is still underutilized.  Both his strikeouts and groundballs are at career-best marks (8.2 and 52%, respectively) while his walk rate is down to a career-low 2.3 BB/9.  Some people refuse to believe in E-Jax, but I remain steadfastly loyal.  (@ PIT)

Danny Duffy (KC) – I expected to see Duffy’s profile raise after a five-plus strong innings against the Yankees, but he remains widely available.  He needs to exhibit more control (4.8 BB/9), but he has built himself a solid margin for error with a 10.3 K/9 in his 23 innings.  (vs. BOS)

AJ Burnett (PIT) – Yes, St. Louis absolutely obliterated him and your fantasy team’s ERA, but you already sustained the worst of him so why jump off the train now?  He was excellent in his two starts prior to that massacre (btw, why the hell did Clint Hurdle leave him out there for that long?) and he has the stuff to get back on track again.  (vs. WAS)

Jarrod Parker (OAK) – The heralded rookie who was acquired in the Trevor Cahill deal has looked sharp in his first two outings in the American League including great work last week in Fenway.  He has a passable 6.2 K/9 rate in his first two starts, but I think we can expect to see that number rise as the season progresses.  Pitching in Oakland always helps, especially with mega-talented arms like Parker.  (vs. TOR)  — Parker was originally scheduled for Tuesday, then flipped with McCarthy for Wednesday and then flipped BACK again to Tuesday.  Thanks for the heads up from commenter Brad.

WEDNESDAY

Erik Bedard (PIT) – I’m going right back to the Pitt-Wash series well for Wednesday.  I guess the history of these two teams makes it difficult for fantasy managers to buy in on their starters and the early season success they are enjoying.  As I’ve said repeatedly, it’s never been about talent with Bedard, just health, so get everything you can out of him while he is whole.  He’s been great this year, though I’d like to see some more pitch efficiency.  Even in his last two starts where he only walked a pair in each, he has been able to go just five innings both times.  (vs. WAS)

Drew Smyly (DET) – What more does Smyly need to do for fantasy folks to buy in?  He has deftly handled Tamp Bay, Texas and the Yankees in New York yet his ownership rate is 45% at ESPN and somehow 32% at Yahoo!.  The added bonus is that he has shown some great strikeout potential, too, with 7 Ks in each of his last three outings (TEX, @ NYY, CHW).  He will have some ups and downs, but I’m buying in on the big picture.  (@ SEA)

Anthony Bass (SD) – Bass is an even more unheralded version of Smyly.  He started 2012 in the bullpen and after a pair of appearances in relief, he has moved into the rotation and looked fantastic.  Of course pitching in San Diego always enhances a pitcher’s value, but his two starts out of PETCO Park have been just fine, too.  He is missing bats (10.6 K/9 in his 5 starts) and getting tons of groundballs (55%).  His BABIP is a bit low (.247), but his 3.19 xFIP says he should be even better than his 3.51 ERA.  (vs. COL)

Ross Detwiler (WAS) – I have been a fan of Detwiler for a while and I’m glad that he is starting to display his talents at the major league level.  In limited time the last three years, he showed incremental improvements, but this year at age 26 he has taken a major step forward.  His secondary pitches are yielding both more strikeouts (career-high 6.7 K/9) and groundballs (career-high 58%) which has driven his success.  His .215 BABIP will certainly regress at some point, but there is enough to believe in with Detwiler and he shouldn’t be available in 52% of ESPN leagues.  (@ PIT)

THURSDAY

Henderson Alvarez (TOR) – Limited options with six games on Thursday and a handful of aces going, but Alvarez is coming off of a complete game shutout yet remains on the wire in many, many leagues.  The problem is that he couldn’t strike me out.  His 2.6 K/9 is frighteningly bad.  His game is to induce weak contact and let his fielders do the work (57% groundball rate), but you have to strikeout SOME batters.  He is going to have a game where several balls find the holes and he gets BABIP’d to death, but I think he will best Minnesota here.  (@ MIN)

FRIDAY

James McDonald (PIT) – Yes, another Pirates starter.  Unlike last year when their starters were drastically outperforming their peripherals, this year’s rotation actually has some strikeout arms doing pretty well yet not getting the love for it.  McDonald wasn’t missing bats early on (6 Ks through his first 3 starts) and I was concerned, but he has 25 Ks in 21 IP across three starts since without giving back the walk rate gains we saw at the start of the season.  A longtime favorite of mine, don’t be surprised if McDonald appears repeatedly on TTW as long as he remains available in many leagues.

Felipe Paulino (KC) – He’s back!  Unfortunately, Paulino started the season on the DL, but he returned last week with six shutout innings against the Yankees as he picked up where 2011 left off.  I really liked Paulino last year and I like him even more this year.  As with the Pirates starter, he is unlikely to get much love even with sustained success so jump in now.  (@ CHW)

Chris Capuano (LAD) – Fantasy managers are catching on with each passing start, but Capuano is still out there in 30% of ESPN leagues and 44% of Y! leagues so I thought he was worth mentioning.  That 2.21 ERA is going to regress a bit as home run issues have always been there with Capuano, but the strikeouts and mid-3.00s ERA by season’s end are well worth it.

Weekend picks on Friday

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 4 Comments »

Wednesday: 05.2.2012

The Best Pitches of April

We are a month into another great season of baseball and we have seen plenty of great pitching already both unexpected and expected starting most notably with Phil Humber’s perfect game continuing on with Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel’s out-of-nowhere emergence and Joe Saunders’ MLB-best 0.90 ERA on the unexpected side ranging over to the expected of Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander and Stephen Strasburg mowing through their opponents with little to no resistance.

With all of that great pitching in mind, I wanted to look at the best pitches of the month.  This idea was at least partially influenced by BP colleague Sam Miller’s ridiculously excellent series highlighting the best pitches of the week.  I was wanting to do something like this last year, but lacked the means to acquire GIFs such as those you’ll see below and reading Sam’s work on the week’s best pitches jogged my memory and ended up as the impetus to make my computer GIF-ready and introduce the series.

To determine the “best” pitches of the month, I will be using FanGraphs Pitch Values and then supplying GIF-based examples of those of pitches.  FanGraphs offers pitch values on fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, changeup, split-finger and knuckleball pitches, but for this exercise, we will be looking at the first five as so few actually throw a split-finger and only R.A. Dickey throws a knuckleball among qualified starting pitchers.

I’ll list the top overall value for each pitch, the top value in the other league (so if 1st place is from an NL guy, I’ll list the top AL guy even if he’s further down the list) and also the top surprise listing which is of course arbitrary to my own tastes.  GIFs will be included for the Top Overall in each pitch only.

FASTBALL

  • Top Overall – Lance Lynn (Value 8.5, Usage 64%, Velocity 92.3 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Jon Lester (6.0 [7th-best], 56%, 92.3 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Joe Saunders (7.1 [3rd-best], 69%, 89.2 MPH)

Lynn is using his fastball almost 10% less than he did last year when he was coming out of the bullpen shifting that pitch mix over to his slider and changeup as he has made a seamless transition and almost made Cardinals fans forget Chris Carpenter, who is shelved with an injury.

Perhaps most impressive of all is that Lynn’s heater lost just 0.9 MPH in the shift.  Oftentimes since relievers are max effort hurlers used an inning at a time, their velocity will be higher than it would as a starter, but Lynn has maintained his heat almost entirely.  Lynn is 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 4.0 K/BB in 27 IP.

Here is a look at some Lynn fastballs from his April 14th home start against the Chicago Cubs.  He is facing off against Marlon Byrd in the top of the 5th inning.  Byrd is befuddled.  (Please excuse the very amateur GIF’ing as these are literally my first GIFs ever on a program that is brand new to me.  Hopefully you see improvement as the list progresses as I started to get the hang of it by the time I was working on the changeup leader.)

SLIDER

  • Top Overall – Madison Bumgarner (Value 5.9, Usage 40%, Velocity 87.4 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Brandon Morrow (3.5 [7th-best], 22%, 86.8 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Barry Zito (4.4 [3rd-best], 37%, 78.7 MPH)

If sliders do eat up a starter’s arm then Bumgarner could be in trouble in the future.  He is throwing his fastball 14% less than last year (down to 39%) and 8% of that workload has gone to his devastating slider which is serving him quite well to start the season as he has a 2.53 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his 32 IP of work.  His groundball rate is up to a career-best 55% (not counting the 58% in 10 IP from 2009), but his strikeout rate is way down thanks to just 7 K in his first three starts spanning 17.3 IP.

Since, he has 10 K in 14.7 IP across two starts for a much more palatable 6.1 K/9 compared to his season mark of 4.8 K/9.  The surface results are there, but the peripherals are lagging behind a bit save the groundball rate and I’m at least a tick concerned about the escalating slider workload (from 20% in 2010 to this year’s 40%).  Of course, then I watch him throw it and understand why he wants to rely on it so much.

Here he is throwing the beautiful breaker in his April 17th start against the Philadelphia Phillies in the top of the 3rd inning against both Placido Polanco and Jimmy Rollins.

CUTTER

  • Top Overall – Tommy Hunter (Value 5.1, Usage 28%, Velocity 85.2 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Roy Halladay (4.2 [2nd-best], 23%, 76.5 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Carlos Zambrano (3.0 [3rd-best], 26%, 88.5 MPH)

Hunter atop any of these lists might be a bit of a surprise to some as he is a league average pitcher at best who hasn’t reached 130 IP in any of his three major league seasons, but last year his cutter netted a 6.6 value which was good for 8th in all of baseball among pitchers with 80+ IP.

Hunter hasn’t parlayed his big cutter into any real success thus far toting a 4.26 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 32 innings across five starts.  His control is at a career-worst 3.1 BB/9 pairing with his 5.1 K/9 to yield a meager 1.6 K/BB.

Here is Hunter taking care of Brent Morel in the bottom of the 1st inning of his April 18th start against the Chicago White Sox.

CURVEBALL

  • Top Overall – Jonathan Niese/Erik Bedard-tie (Value 4.1, Usage 22%/27%, Velocity 74.3 MPH/75.0 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Jake Arrieta (2.3 [6th-best], 17%, 78.9 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Bronson Arroyo (2.4 [5th-best], 16%, 72.4 MPH)

Niese continues his quest to get his ERA below 4.00 and down to the level of his xFIP (ranging from 3.28 to 3.80 since 2010) and currently sits on the precipice with a 4.08 ERA.  He is dogged by a 15% HR/FB thus far as his 3.45 xFIP is much more palatable.  Meanwhile his curveball has heavily aided his 7.5 K/9 thus far with 47% of plate appearances that end on curveballs resulting in a strikeout.

It has never been about talent with Bedard, rather health as he hasn’t reached 130 IP since 2007 so it isn’t too surprising that his first five starts with the Pirates have gone pretty well.  He has a 2.48 ERA, but a 1.41 WHIP thanks to his .337 BABIP.  He has an 8.1 K/9 and 2.2 K/BB in 29 IP.  His curveball has been his calling card throughout his injury-addled career along with a strong fastball, but this year’s fastball value is being eaten up by a .396 BABIP resulting in a -1.6 value thus far.

Here is Niese’s curve from his April 26th start against the Miami Marlins with a splicing of pitches from a faceoff with Austin Kearns in the top of the 4th and Brett Hayes in the top of the 6th.  Also you will see Bedard’s curveball from a pair of at-bats against Dan Uggla on April 28th in the bottom of the 3rd and 5th innings.

CHANGEUP

  • Top Overall – Tommy Milone (Value 5.1, Usage 28%, Velocity 79.5 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Anibal Sanchez (4.2 [2nd-best], 19%, 83.3 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Jake Peavy (4.1 [3rd-best], 9%, 83.6 MPH)

Milone entered his Monday night start against the Boston Red Sox with a 2.00 ERA and 0.87 WHIP impressing along the way despite a modest opponent list of Kansas City, Seattle, Los Angeles and Chicago (the bookends both at home).  The Red Sox would be his first real challenge, especially in Fenway.

They greeted him and his 87 MPH fastball rather rudely as he allowed 7 ER in 4.7 IP pushing his ERA to 3.69 in the process. Milone is a command and control lefty who doesn’t generate many strikeouts due to a lack of overpowering stuff and needs to effectively change speeds to have success so it isn’t entirely surprising to see him atop the changeup list.

Here he is during his April 24th start, a much more successful outing against the Chicago White Sox during which he threw eight scoreless innings of ball.  Take a look at four changeups across two at-bats, first against Paul Konerko in the top of the 1st and then against Tyler Flowers in the top of the 2nd.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Best Pitches, Fantasy Baseball, GIFtastic, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | 3 Comments »

Monday: 04.30.2012

Maddening Max

I remember seeing the news across the crawl on TV, “Detroit Tigers option RHP Max Scherzer to AAA Toledo…” and kind of doing a double take.  “Wow, that’s a shock!”  He had posted a 2.12 ERA in his first three starts, twice against Kansas City and once against Seattle, but his skills (10 K, 5 BB) weren’t particularly special.  He was better against Texas in his fourth start (7 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 2 BB) before things came completely unhinged.  In his next four starts, he failed to go more than five innings posting a 13.50 ERA, 2.33 WHIP, 9 K and 9 BB in 18 innings.

It was mid-May of 2010 and the Tigers had little choice but to send the talented, but flailing hurler down to the minors for a spell.  Two weeks later he returned to the majors and went on to enjoy the best run of his professional career pitching like one of baseball’s best pitchers from May 30th through the end of the season with a 2.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 158 K and 54 BB in 154 innings giving up 0 or 1 run in 15 of his 23 starts.  Could a similar move be in the offing for the 2012 version of Scherzer?

He was a complete mess on Sunday in Yankee Stadium walking a career-high seven, allowing seven hits as well and ending up very lucky to come away allowing just three runs in his 4.7 innings of work.  His ERA for the season is now at 7.77 and his league-leading 10.0 K/9 is completely cancelled out by the 4.8 BB/9 and 13.7 (!!!) H/9 rates.  His WHIP is an astronomical 2.06.  So what’s wrong?

Would you accept “everything” as an answer?

OK, maybe not everything, but “plenty” is definitely a viable answer.  Max himself said that fastball command was a huge issue on Sunday suggesting the ball felt like a “cue ball” as he struggled to find the zone with any amount of consistency.  The numbers bore out his assessment as he hit the strike zone a meager 52% of the time with his 74 fastballs.  He has always been what you might call effectively wild, but it was excessive on Sunday.  The outing in Yankee Stadium was more like things coming to a head for Scherzer as he hasn’t really been crisp at all this year, even when he struck out 11 in Chicago a few weeks back.

He has a 62% strike rate with the fastball on the year, down from 64% last year.  He was at 65% during that 2010 run.  While the lack of fastball strikes are contributing to his control issues, it is really the lack of reliable secondary stuff that is fueling his struggles so far this year.  He has a devastating wipeout slider when he is right as well as a strong changeup that often carries ~10 MPH split from his fastball which he buries down and away to neutralize lefties.

Just as with the fastball, he isn’t throwing nearly enough strikes with the secondary stuff as his slider is crossing the dish just 59% of the time, down from 63% in 2011.  Meanwhile, when it does go for a strike it is often being obliterated as hitters have a 1.224 OPS in plate appearances that end on a slider.  That is nearly twice the .617 OPS from last year.  Furthermore, the change is doing nothing to stifle southpaws.  He has a 59% strike rate on the changeup against lefties and they are battering it to the tune of a 1.065 OPS, numbers that were at 66% and .721 a season ago, respectively.

Scherzer has always had something of a violent delivery making consistency a constant challenge, especially with his release point.  On Sunday, the only thing that was consistent was Scherzer dropping his arm and throwing across his body as he continually flew open and finished all but falling off the mound.  The silver lining to these early issues is that they can be ironed out as the 2010 season showed.  You can refine and work on a pitcher’s mechanics.  You cannot, however, teach an arm to be as electric as Scherzer’s.  It’s subtle (and to me more evident in watching the starts), but you can see the difference in Scherzer’s release point yesterday when compared to his other starts this year.

(click to enlarge)

Another tick on the plus side would be that his velocity isn’t diminished during this tough time.  In fact, it’s up.  He has averaged 93.1 MPH with his fastball the last two years, but he is up to 93.7 MPH so far this year.  Often when a pitcher is struggling, analysts eye fastball velocity as an indicator to potential injury.  Scherzer is at his best mark since his 2008 debut (94.2 MPH) when he worked a lot out of the bullpen.  He has lost some of the velocity split on his changeup, though, which is currently averaging 85.6 MPH, up 3 MPH from last year.  His slider velocity is also up to a career high 86.6 MPH after sitting 82.7 MPH last year.

He appears to be overthrowing both secondary pitches helping explaining the velocity gains as well as his inability to consistently draw strikes with either pitch.  In short, Scherzer is a mess right now and that is obvious.  Even when he gets ahead of batters, they are still pounding him for a .751 OPS (.514 last year, .525 career).  What isn’t so obvious right now is what to do if you’re the Tigers.  Do you see if another stint in AAA does the trick a la 2010?  Or do you let him ride it out with the big league club?

If you choose the former, you probably have to wait until Doug Fister is ready to come back from the disabled list as you’re already working shorthanded.  Drew Smyly has been incredible in the early going and he is the only thing holding up the non-Verlander end of the starting pitching bargain as Rick Porcello has hardly been any better than Schezer (6.45 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) while Adam Wilk was forced into duty after the Fister injury and subsequently batted around for an 8.18 ERA in just 11 innings across three starts.  Duane Below will take his spot this week drawing a pair of starts and hoping to bring his bullpen success (12 scoreless IP) into the rotation.

How about handling Scherzer from a fantasy perspective?  Any AL-only league manager has to keep him, he is simply too talented and anyone you replace him with is likely a flavor of the month with nowhere near the upside.  Cutting him after just 24 innings would be hasty and likely end up backfiring.  I would say the same goes for deep mixed leaguers (14+ teams) and it is rare that a mixed league doesn’t allow a bench so I would just reserve before I would ever decide to cut him.  What about 10-12 mixed leaguers?  That is where a decision gets a bit more dicey.

There are no doubt a throng of options with better stats than Scherzer (not a tough bar to clear) and while I would personally practice some patience with him, I could understand making a move for a new pitcher in those types of leagues.  Looking at some of the names available in a 12-team mixer that I am playing, I see some nice options beyond the flashes in the pan like Joe Saunders and Bruce Chen, who I don’t trust at all.  Names like Jeff Niemann, Chris Capuano and the aforementioned Smyly among others.

I would assume a 10-teamer would have even better names in addition to those.  So while I would still recommend reserving Scherzer ahead of anything that involves cutting him, there is a case for releasing him for a better performing arm if that is your only choice or if you utilize Matthew Berry‘s Wandy Line Method for streaming starters.

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