Archive for ‘Best Pitches’

Wednesday: 06.20.2012

Best Pitches Feature On Hold

Quick note about the Best Pitches of the Month feature.  I really enjoyed doing it for April, but it is a big undertaking for a crappy computer which mine has unfortunately become in its seventh year of existence.  It is a labor intensive project that wouldn’t be so problematic on a better unit, so I’m going to suspend the feature until I can afford a new laptop.  Between having MLB.tv and the GIF-making program up (as well as any others not related to the project), the computer would freeze and skip and I often had to remake GIFs that were jumpy or skippy during recording.  I’ll still make GIFs in one-off situations where I think they are really necessary, but since the Best Pitches project was more of a luxury, I’m just going to hold off for now.  Once I get a job, I’ll get a new computer and it will return (and I’m sure I’ll do a ton of random GIF’ing… watch out for beagle GIFs!).

Tuesday: 05.15.2012

The Best Pitches of April – Relief Edition

Earlier this month, I brought you the Best Pitches of April for starting pitchers.  That was back on May 2nd.  I wanted to share the same for relievers.  Ideally going forward, I will present both the starters and relievers early in month as opposed to one iteration in the middle of the month.

To determine the “best” pitches of the month, I will be using FanGraphs Pitch Values and then supplying GIF-based examples of those of pitches.  FanGraphs offers pitch values on fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, changeup, split-finger and knuckleball pitches, but for this exercise, we will be looking at the first six as no reliever throws a knuckleball.

I’ll list the top overall value for each pitch, the top value in the other league (so if 1st place is from an NL guy, I’ll list the top AL guy even if he’s further down the list) and also the top surprise listing which is of course arbitrary to my own tastes.  GIFs will be included for the Top Overall in each pitch only.

FASTBALL

  • Top Overall – Matt Thornton (Value 4.7, Usage 78%, Velocity 95.8 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Josh Lindblom (4.0 [3rd-best], 67%, 92.5 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Duane Below (4.2 [2nd-best], 54%, 90.4 MPH)

Thornton has long had a great fastball registering pitch values of 17 and 19 in 2008 and 2010, respectively.  In fact it was the emergence of his fastball in 2008 that took him from a solid reliever to an elite one resulting in a 2010 All-Star bid.  His fastball helped him to a 0.82 ERA in 11 innings in April with 10 strikeouts.

Here is a series of fastballs from Thornton to Oakland’s Cliff Pennington on April 25th in the bottom of the 10th inning.

SLIDER

  • Top Overall – Alexi Ogando (Value 3.5, Usage 38%, Velocity 84.7 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Jon Rauch (3.4 [2nd-best], 43%, 82.8 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Craig Stammen (2.5 [5th-best], 31%, 84.6 MPH)

Ogando would be a mid-rotation starter on most teams and no worse than a closer on many others.  On the insanely deep Texas Rangers, he is a bridge reliever pitching crucial innings to get to Mike Adams and Joe Nathan.  There is a ton of value in his role as managers often save their closer, ostensibly their best reliever, for save situations only.

With Ogando, manager Ron Washington gets to use his best reliever when it actually matters most: those especially sticky 6th, 7th and 8th inning situations.  Perhaps the best part is that Ogando can give you more than three outs without incident, in fact the best deployment of him should include more than an inning of work.

Here are some sliders from Ogando to both Brent Morel of the White Sox on April 6th and Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers on April 22nd.  The White Sox game is in the bottom of the 7th and the Tigers game is in the bottom of the 8th.

CUTTER

  • Top Overall – Mike Adams (Value 3.5, Usage 57%, Velocity 87.8 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Josh Roenicke (1.6 [4th-best], 32%, 83.9 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Jason Isringhausen (2.4 [3rd-best], 35%, 88.4 MPH)

Of course Texas relievers had two of the best pitches in April.  This team is just so ridiculously stocked top to bottom.  I remember when the Rangers were talking trade with the Padres and everyone assumed they would go for Heath Bell.  When it turned out they “only” got Adams, some thought they settled.  Even before this year’s implosion with Bell, it was obvious they got the much better reliever.  That said, they paid a premium in Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland so they deserved to get the better reliever.

Here is some of Adams’ work with the cutter against Ben Zobrist of Tampa Bay in the top of the 8th inning of an April 28th meeting.

CURVEBALL

  • Top Overall – Kris Medlen (Value 3.4, Usage 11%, Velocity 78.5 MPH)
  • Top Other League – J.P. Howell (3.0 [2nd-best], 39%, 79.0 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Tom Wilhelmsen (2.1 [t5th-best], 31%, 78.7 MPH)

Medlen doesn’t quite reach Ogandian levels, but he is another favorite of mine who shows the embarrassment of riches that the Braves have on their staff.  He would definitely be starting on a lot of teams, but the Braves have the luxury of using him as a multi-inning middle reliever.

Hopefully manager Freddie Gonzalez lets Medlen absorb a substantial workload so he doesn’t run Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters into the ground again this year.  Medlen had outings of 2.0, 2.7 and 3.0 IP in April giving up just two runs in 13 innings of work.

Here is his curveball working against Justin Turner in an Opening Day (April 5th) meeting with the New York Mets in the bottom of the 7th inning.

CHANGEUP

  • Top Overall – Kris Medlen (Value 2.2, Usage 20%, Velocity 82.1 MPH, Split from FB 10.0 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Craig Breslow (1.6 [2nd-best], 15%, 78.6 MPH, 12.5 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Matt Maloney (1.8 [3rd-best], 20%, 81.2 MPH, 7.8 MPH)

See why I think this guy could be starting?  He had two of the best pitches among relievers in the month of April.  He hasn’t been getting strikeouts at the level we are used to seeing from him (career 7.5 K/9, just 2.8 K/9 in April), but he has the capability and I think they will come as the season  progresses.  He notched 4 Ks in his 2.7 inning outing against the Mets on April 17th.

Here is his changeup against a pair of Pirates, Alex Presley and Garrett Jones, from an April 27th meeting in Turner Field during the top of the 8th and 9th innings.

SPLIT-FINGER

  • Top Overall – Jose Arredondo (Value 3.6, Usage 46%, Velocity 84.8 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Joel Peralta (1.2 [4th-best], 15%, 78.6 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Ryan Mattheus (1.7 [2nd-best], 20%, 81.2 MPH)

Remember when Arredondo was awesome?  OK, awesome might be a stretch, but his rookie year saw him throw 61 innings with a 1.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a 10-2 record.  That is all awesome, but the 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB don’t necessarily marry up with the performance which is why that season probably falls just short of awesome.  He followed it up with a 6.00 ERA in 45 innings.  He missed all of 2010 to injury before resurfacing with Cincinnati last year.

He has become a useful entity in the bullpen again notching a 10.1 K/9 in April, the highest of his career (which he has continued through May thus far).  He only allowed runs in one of his 10 April outings, too, yielding a 2.53 ERA in 10.7 innings.

Here is his splitter

Wednesday: 05.2.2012

The Best Pitches of April

We are a month into another great season of baseball and we have seen plenty of great pitching already both unexpected and expected starting most notably with Phil Humber’s perfect game continuing on with Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel’s out-of-nowhere emergence and Joe Saunders’ MLB-best 0.90 ERA on the unexpected side ranging over to the expected of Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander and Stephen Strasburg mowing through their opponents with little to no resistance.

With all of that great pitching in mind, I wanted to look at the best pitches of the month.  This idea was at least partially influenced by BP colleague Sam Miller’s ridiculously excellent series highlighting the best pitches of the week.  I was wanting to do something like this last year, but lacked the means to acquire GIFs such as those you’ll see below and reading Sam’s work on the week’s best pitches jogged my memory and ended up as the impetus to make my computer GIF-ready and introduce the series.

To determine the “best” pitches of the month, I will be using FanGraphs Pitch Values and then supplying GIF-based examples of those of pitches.  FanGraphs offers pitch values on fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, changeup, split-finger and knuckleball pitches, but for this exercise, we will be looking at the first five as so few actually throw a split-finger and only R.A. Dickey throws a knuckleball among qualified starting pitchers.

I’ll list the top overall value for each pitch, the top value in the other league (so if 1st place is from an NL guy, I’ll list the top AL guy even if he’s further down the list) and also the top surprise listing which is of course arbitrary to my own tastes.  GIFs will be included for the Top Overall in each pitch only.

FASTBALL

  • Top Overall – Lance Lynn (Value 8.5, Usage 64%, Velocity 92.3 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Jon Lester (6.0 [7th-best], 56%, 92.3 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Joe Saunders (7.1 [3rd-best], 69%, 89.2 MPH)

Lynn is using his fastball almost 10% less than he did last year when he was coming out of the bullpen shifting that pitch mix over to his slider and changeup as he has made a seamless transition and almost made Cardinals fans forget Chris Carpenter, who is shelved with an injury.

Perhaps most impressive of all is that Lynn’s heater lost just 0.9 MPH in the shift.  Oftentimes since relievers are max effort hurlers used an inning at a time, their velocity will be higher than it would as a starter, but Lynn has maintained his heat almost entirely.  Lynn is 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 4.0 K/BB in 27 IP.

Here is a look at some Lynn fastballs from his April 14th home start against the Chicago Cubs.  He is facing off against Marlon Byrd in the top of the 5th inning.  Byrd is befuddled.  (Please excuse the very amateur GIF’ing as these are literally my first GIFs ever on a program that is brand new to me.  Hopefully you see improvement as the list progresses as I started to get the hang of it by the time I was working on the changeup leader.)

SLIDER

  • Top Overall – Madison Bumgarner (Value 5.9, Usage 40%, Velocity 87.4 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Brandon Morrow (3.5 [7th-best], 22%, 86.8 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Barry Zito (4.4 [3rd-best], 37%, 78.7 MPH)

If sliders do eat up a starter’s arm then Bumgarner could be in trouble in the future.  He is throwing his fastball 14% less than last year (down to 39%) and 8% of that workload has gone to his devastating slider which is serving him quite well to start the season as he has a 2.53 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his 32 IP of work.  His groundball rate is up to a career-best 55% (not counting the 58% in 10 IP from 2009), but his strikeout rate is way down thanks to just 7 K in his first three starts spanning 17.3 IP.

Since, he has 10 K in 14.7 IP across two starts for a much more palatable 6.1 K/9 compared to his season mark of 4.8 K/9.  The surface results are there, but the peripherals are lagging behind a bit save the groundball rate and I’m at least a tick concerned about the escalating slider workload (from 20% in 2010 to this year’s 40%).  Of course, then I watch him throw it and understand why he wants to rely on it so much.

Here he is throwing the beautiful breaker in his April 17th start against the Philadelphia Phillies in the top of the 3rd inning against both Placido Polanco and Jimmy Rollins.

CUTTER

  • Top Overall – Tommy Hunter (Value 5.1, Usage 28%, Velocity 85.2 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Roy Halladay (4.2 [2nd-best], 23%, 76.5 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Carlos Zambrano (3.0 [3rd-best], 26%, 88.5 MPH)

Hunter atop any of these lists might be a bit of a surprise to some as he is a league average pitcher at best who hasn’t reached 130 IP in any of his three major league seasons, but last year his cutter netted a 6.6 value which was good for 8th in all of baseball among pitchers with 80+ IP.

Hunter hasn’t parlayed his big cutter into any real success thus far toting a 4.26 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 32 innings across five starts.  His control is at a career-worst 3.1 BB/9 pairing with his 5.1 K/9 to yield a meager 1.6 K/BB.

Here is Hunter taking care of Brent Morel in the bottom of the 1st inning of his April 18th start against the Chicago White Sox.

CURVEBALL

  • Top Overall – Jonathan Niese/Erik Bedard-tie (Value 4.1, Usage 22%/27%, Velocity 74.3 MPH/75.0 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Jake Arrieta (2.3 [6th-best], 17%, 78.9 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Bronson Arroyo (2.4 [5th-best], 16%, 72.4 MPH)

Niese continues his quest to get his ERA below 4.00 and down to the level of his xFIP (ranging from 3.28 to 3.80 since 2010) and currently sits on the precipice with a 4.08 ERA.  He is dogged by a 15% HR/FB thus far as his 3.45 xFIP is much more palatable.  Meanwhile his curveball has heavily aided his 7.5 K/9 thus far with 47% of plate appearances that end on curveballs resulting in a strikeout.

It has never been about talent with Bedard, rather health as he hasn’t reached 130 IP since 2007 so it isn’t too surprising that his first five starts with the Pirates have gone pretty well.  He has a 2.48 ERA, but a 1.41 WHIP thanks to his .337 BABIP.  He has an 8.1 K/9 and 2.2 K/BB in 29 IP.  His curveball has been his calling card throughout his injury-addled career along with a strong fastball, but this year’s fastball value is being eaten up by a .396 BABIP resulting in a -1.6 value thus far.

Here is Niese’s curve from his April 26th start against the Miami Marlins with a splicing of pitches from a faceoff with Austin Kearns in the top of the 4th and Brett Hayes in the top of the 6th.  Also you will see Bedard’s curveball from a pair of at-bats against Dan Uggla on April 28th in the bottom of the 3rd and 5th innings.

CHANGEUP

  • Top Overall – Tommy Milone (Value 5.1, Usage 28%, Velocity 79.5 MPH)
  • Top Other League – Anibal Sanchez (4.2 [2nd-best], 19%, 83.3 MPH)
  • Top Surprise – Jake Peavy (4.1 [3rd-best], 9%, 83.6 MPH)

Milone entered his Monday night start against the Boston Red Sox with a 2.00 ERA and 0.87 WHIP impressing along the way despite a modest opponent list of Kansas City, Seattle, Los Angeles and Chicago (the bookends both at home).  The Red Sox would be his first real challenge, especially in Fenway.

They greeted him and his 87 MPH fastball rather rudely as he allowed 7 ER in 4.7 IP pushing his ERA to 3.69 in the process. Milone is a command and control lefty who doesn’t generate many strikeouts due to a lack of overpowering stuff and needs to effectively change speeds to have success so it isn’t entirely surprising to see him atop the changeup list.

Here he is during his April 24th start, a much more successful outing against the Chicago White Sox during which he threw eight scoreless innings of ball.  Take a look at four changeups across two at-bats, first against Paul Konerko in the top of the 1st and then against Tyler Flowers in the top of the 2nd.