Friday: 06.24.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 12 The Weekend

Some quick picks for the weekend

SATURDAY:

John Danks (CHW v. WAS) – In three June starts, he’s 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 7 K/9.  Take out the butt-kicking he suffered in Toronto at the end of May and he has a 3.31 ERA since April 30th.  He’s coming back around and this is a guy who should be owned across all formats.

Justin Masteron (CLE @ SF) – Masterson’s Achilles heel is lefties and SF only has three: Brandon Crawford, Aubrey Huff & Nate Schierholtz.  Crawford is an all-leather rookie in there for his defensive chops at short while neither Huff nor Schierholtz has been able to post an OPS better than .700 this year.

Jason Vargas (SEA “at” FLO) – Florida is only the home team in that they will bat last, but the game is in Safeco where Vargas has allowed a .650 for his career and .631 on the year. 

SUNDAY:

Doug Fister (SEA “at” FLO) – Taking full advantage of the U2 concert that forced this series to Seattle, I’ll go with another Mariners pitcher who takes advantage of his home park.  Fister allows a .68 OPS at home and just a  .590 OPS against right-handers.  The Marlins have just one regular lefty in their lineup (Logan Morrison) and the only other one who could start is the non-threatening Dewayne Wise.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

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Thursday: 06.23.2011

2011 Futures Game Roster Primer

As I have become more and more interested in prospects the last few years, the All-Star Futures Game has become one of my favorite events of the year.  This year’s sets up to be another great game with the best & brightest of the game’s future getting a chance to show off on a big stage.  This year’s game is highlighted by the consensus 1-2 prospects in the game this preseason: Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.  The order of the two may have varied, but they topped just about every list.

Here’s a look at all of the participants along with some information about their 2011 season:

(I apologize for the table, it’s a lot uglier than the one I built originally.  I have no idea why the tables I build out don’t work properly when I load the HTML.  It’s frustrating.)

Player Team Age Level BA Org. RK Season Stats Notes
Paul Goldschmidt ARI 23 AA 11 .328/.450/.656, 22 HR, 61 RBI in 250 AB Hit 35 HR last yr; has 1 HR every 14 AB in 1062 min. lg ABs
Tyler Skaggs ARI 19 A+ 2 11.1 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 3.36 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 83 IP A key piece in the Dan Haren trade
Julio Teheran ATL 20 AAA/MLB 1 7.8 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, 1.83 ERA, 0.98 WHIP in 79 IP Top rated pitching prospect, reached AAA after just 40 AA IP
Arodys Vizcaino ATL 20 A+/AA 7 8.7 K/9, 3.6 K/BB, 2.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 66 IP Health is the primary concern otherwise yet another ATL stud
Manny Machado BAL 18 A 1 .276/.376/.483, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 3 SB in 145 AB Came out on fire in Apr, but knee inj. cut most of May & some of Jun
Jonathan Schoop BAL 19 A/A+ 10 .313/.369/.487, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 53 R in 265 AB Enjoying nice full-season debut, no longer SS w/Machado in system
Chih-Hsien Chiang BOS 23 AA UR .307/.363/.620, 11 HR, 41 RBI, 21 2B in 192 AB Breaking out in AA repeat w/same HR total already in 246 fewer AB
Will Middlebrooks BOS 22 AA 11 .294/.335/.478, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 27 R in 201 AB Power starting to show in a breakout season for the 3B
Matt Szczur CHC 21 A 7 .327/.383/.463, 5 HR, 46 R, 16 SB in 214 AB Good ballplayer, great person
Gregory Infante CWS 23 AA, AAA 6 8.2 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 1.64 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 33 IP Had 5 scoreless IP in majors in ’10, but control is the final hurdle
Dayan Viciedo CWS 22 AAA 3 .324/.364/.520, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 22 2B in 281 AB Free-swinger did well in 104 MLB AB last yr, unsure why B.Morel has job now
Yonder Alonso CIN 24 AAA 4 .313/.373/.496, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 35 R in 256 AB Major league ready, but no place to play thus it’s time for a trade
Devin Mesoraco CIN 23 AAA 3 .322/.404/.545, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 26 2B in 233 AB Has carried over last year’s huge breakthrough w/another big season
Jason Kipnis CLE 24 AAA 3 .291/.372/.496, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 10 SB in 258 AB Could be up soon as Cord Phelps flounders in limited opportunities
Drew Pomeranz CLE 22 A+ 4 11.4 K/9, 3.4 K/BB, 1.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 61 IP SP help is on the way for CLE w/he & Alex White, who got hurt earlier this yr
Nolan Arenado COL 20 A+ 3 .283/.327/.418, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 38 R in 251 AB The 3B job is open in COL, but even the fast-track would be late ’12
Wilin Rosario COL 22 AA 2 .263/.302/.469, 11 HR, 25 RBI, 28 R in 213 AB 2nd tour in AA hasn’t been as kind w/122 pt drop in his OPS
Francisco Martinez DET 20 AA 4 .291/.332/.427, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 44 R in 227 AB Numbers don’t overwhelm even in ’11 breakout, but keep his age in mind
Jacob Turner DET 20 AA 1 7.2 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 2.94 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 80 IP Might break ’12 camp in DET rotation given aggressive promos in Motown
Jhan Marinez FLO 22 AA 4 11.6 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 3.77 ERA, 1.61 WHIP in 29 IP Lacks much command right now, but mid-90s arm could close in future
Jose Altuve HOU 21 A+/AA 28 398/.434/.612, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 23 SB in 299 AB Insane numbers are impressive regardless, but more so from 5’5″ Altuve
Kelvin Herrera KC 21 A+/AA 30 10.2 K/9, 13.3 K/BB, 1.27 ERA, 0.74 WHIP in 35 IP Converted SP has reinvented himself as an elite RP, though health is a concern
Wil Myers KC 20 AA 2 .295/.366/.418, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 23 R in 146 AB Heating up after slow start in which he played just 20 G through May
Mike Trout LAA 19 AA 1 .324/.424/.557, 9 HR, 9 3B, 24 SB in 244 AB Actually better than ’10; could feasibly reach MLB by late summer
Alfredo Silverio LAD 24 AA UR .324/.343/.581, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 11 3B in 253 AB Quite a free swinger w/just 89 BB in 2082 pro ABs
Tyler Thornburg MIL 22 A 6 10.0 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 1.57 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 69 IP Bright spot in thin MIL system w/mid-90s heat
Kyle Gibson MIN 23 AAA 1 9.4 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 3.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 76 IP Std. MIN control artist missing a lot of bats in ’11; could be up this summer
Liam Hendriks MIN 22 AA 6 8.2 K/9, 4.4 K/BB, 2.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 77 IP An Austrailian version of the MIN profile
Matt Harvey NYM 22 A+ 4 10.9 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, 2.37 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 76 IP Great pro debut for the UNC product; could be NYM’s #1 prospect in ’12
Jefry Marte NYM 20 A+ 26 .283/.357/.402, 5 HR, 32 RBI, 9 SB in 254 AB Has to hit to have a real future, 15 E at 3B
Austin Romine NYY 22 AA 6 .298/.362/.421, 4 HR, 31 RBI, 23 R in 178 AB Part of trio of Cs in NYY top 6 prospects; related to MLBers Andrew & Kevin
Grant Green OAK 23 AA 1 .293/.344/.407, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 35 R in 263 AB Many believe he doesn’t have the chops to stick at SS
Jarred Cosart PHI 21 A+ 4 7.5 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 74 IP Huge ceiling, but still quite a while away
Sebastian Valle PHI 20 A+ 6 .343/.355/.482, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 21 R in 166 AB Just 2 BB in 169 PA, I’m not sure an SP could walk Valle if he tried
Chase d’Arnaud PIT 24 AAA 10 .280/.347/.418, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 17 SB in 239 AB He’s not *completely* ready, but he can’t be worse than Ronny Cedeno
Starling Marte PIT 22 AA 4 .338/.371/.475, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 15 SB in 263 AB Hasn’t hit below .309 since coming to the States in 2009
James Darnell SD 24 AA 12 .346/.438/.634, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 57 R in 257 AB His ’11 SLG (.634) isn’t too far from his AA OPS in 101 G last yr (.756)
Reymond Fuentes SD 20 A+ 4 .294/.354/.351, 0 HR, 30 SB, 52 R in 265 AB Speed & defense CF who came over in Adrian Gonzalez deal
Gary Brown SF 22 A+ 3 .328/.398/.477, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 32 SB in 287 AB Needs to become a smarter base stealer (70% success rate in 46 attempts)
Carlos Martinez StL 19 A 3 11.8 K/9, 3.6 K/BB, 2.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 33 IP Making big waves in ’11; will skyrocket up lists for ’12
Shelby Miller StL 20 AA 1 12.1 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, 2.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 79 IP Could be the #1 SP prospect in baseball for ’12
Alex Liddi SEA 22 AAA 13 .260/.326/.471, 13 HR, 46 RBI, 22 2B in 289 AB Has underwhelmed in upper levels since High-A MVP in 2009
James Paxton SEA 22 A UR 13.1 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 2.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 50 IP Paxton has shown little rust after yr off due to being ineligible for Sr. season
Hak-Ju Lee TB 20 A+ 4 (for Cubs) .339/.412/.468, 2 HR, 20 SB, 51 R in 233 AB I have seen nothing but rave reviews for Lee, can’t wait to see him play
Matt Moore TB 22 AA 2 11.9 K/9, 4.5 K/BB, 2.43 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 78 IP His K rates in five years as a pro: 13-13-13-13-12; total of 12.7 K/9 in 420 IP
Martin Perez TEX 20 AA 1 8.5 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 3.28 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in 82 IP Example of numbers not telling everything in minors, still TEX #1 after 5.96 ERA
Jurickson Profar TEX 18 A 2 .268/.378/.490, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 38 R in 208 AB 32 BB/29 K in 248 PA, good for 13% BB rate; already a plus-plus defender at SS
Henderson Alvarez TOR 21 A+/AA 17 5.4 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 2.98 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 51 IP Seems to have K-worthy stuff, yet relies on heavy GB lean (59%) instead of Ks
Bryce Harper WAS 18 A+ 1 .330/.429/.586, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 13 SB in 227 AB Living up the immense hype in pro debut, what will he do next?
Brad Peacock WAS 23 AA 10 12.1 K/9, 6.4 K/BB, 2.46 ERA, 0.85 WHIP in 80 IP Has taken K & BB rates to new heights adding to burgeoning crop of WAS arms

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Wednesday: 06.22.2011

The Next Wave: 11 AAA Pitching Prospects

Just over a week ago, I wrote up a bunch of AAA hitting prospects who we could see make an impact throughout the summer and now it is time to take a look at a group of pitchers who could do the same.  As with the hitters we have already seen a large group of pitchers come up such as Danny Duffy, Rubby de la Rosa, Juan Nicasio, Brad Hand, Andrew Oliver, Charlie Furbush, Alex Cobb and Alex White.

We have also seen Randall Delgado, Mike Minor & Julio Teheran from the Atlanta Braves, but they have bounced back and forth from minors to majors.  All three are currently down right now, but since they have already been up, you won’t see them on this list.

This list is thinner than the 21 hitters that were discussed, but that actually works out just fine given how plentiful pitching has been this year in the dramatic new pitcher’s era that has carried over (and accelerated) from 2010.

Todd Redmond (ATL) – It is just ridiculous how much major league-ready pitching this organization has right now.  How often does a 26 year old in AAA with a 2.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 3.1 K/BB have almost no chance at making it to the majors with his current team?  Not very often, but when your parent club runs five deep on their rotation followed by three blue-chip prospects ahead of you, it is tough sledding for big league playing time.  Perhaps they will consider moving Redmond in a trade and he will get a shot with a new team.

Felix Doubront (BOS) – The backend of the Red Sox rotation is very much unsettled and there is no certainty that recent call-up Andrew Miller will be the savior which could open a chance for Doubront and his strike-per-inning arm.  He has a sub-3.00 ERA over his last 117 minor league innings (2.89) combining this year and last with 112 strikeouts.  I hope he does get a chance to prove himself as a starter because he can miss bats and induce groundballs at a strong rate; keep the southpaw on your radar.

Kyle Weiland (BOS) – Another hard thrower, Weiland also has a strong sinker and has put together a strong debut in AAA striking out nearly 10 per game though control is a bit of an issue (4 BB/9).  He has induced a lot of groundballs at every stop including at a 48% clip this year.  He profiles a little more like a reliever than Doubront for me mainly because of the control, but there is no denying that Weiland has been one of Pawtucket’s best starters.

Duane Below (DET) – The Toledo Mud Hens has a strong rotation earlier this between Below, Furbush and Oliver.  Furbush has come up and stabilized the bullpen at the big league level and Oliver got a quick two-start look before returning meaning perhaps Below is next?  Phil Coke has hardly been special in his conversion from reliever to starter and while I much prefer Oliver long-term, Below could get a look and perhaps contribute for the rest of 2011 while Oliver continues to work at AAA.

Below (25) is two years older than Oliver, but it has been a deliberate ascension through the minors for the lefty.  Coming off of 2009 Tommy John Surgery, his strikeouts have tumbled from strikeout-per-inning stuff to a craftier 6.6 K/9 level, but he has improved his control significantly to compensate.  I don’t see star potential, but he could come up and be a deep mixed league or AL-Only league asset thanks to a solid, though unspectacular skill set.

Mike Montgomery (KC) – The 2011 season has delivered the first bit of real adversity in Montgomery’s career as a pro as he pummeled every level up until AAA with ERAs of 2.61 or better at every level save a 3.47 at AA.  He had shown impeccable control and command at every level up until AA, too, when his walk rate pushed 4.0 per game (3.9 in 60 IP) giving him his first sub-2.0 K/BB.  Those struggles have amplified and continued at AAA as he has a 5.3 BB/9 and 1.4 K/BB leading to a very ugly 5.83 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.  He could turn it around, go on a stretch and be in the majors in a flash which is why he is included on this list, but things haven’t gone exactly according to plan for Montgomery.

He looked pretty sharp when I saw him back in April, but that was also his best month by far (2.67 ERA) and yet he wasn’t as crisp as he looked in Arizona Fall League.  Pitcher growing pains are nothing new so just be patient if you own him in a league with minor league rosters and prepare for the very real possibility that he doesn’t hit the majors in 2011 or only gets a cup of coffee in September.

Kyle Gibson (MIN) – Hey, a groundball-heavy strikethrower, how original Minnesota.  Gibson pounds the zone as those in the Twins organization are wont to do and his slider and changeup not only induce plenty of weak on the ground contact (55% GB rate this year; 54%+ at all four stops as a pro), but also generate a lot of swings & misses allowing him to pile up enough strikeouts for a 9.4 K/9 in 76 innings at AAA.  He might be what I wish Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey were all these years which is a combination of the best parts of themselves (pinpoint control, above average strikeout rates) and Carl Pavano essentially trading their fatal flaw of a flyball lean (which leads to gopheritis) for Pavano’s primary asset: a near-50% groundball rate.

I couldn’t believe he didn’t get a call up when they were floundering, but now their resurgence has been starting pitcher driven which could keep him down until late July, if not later.  I continue to have zero confidence in Nick Blackburn though there isn’t a shortage of smoke or mirrors in the United States so he might be fine, but Brian Duensing is better as a reliever and Gibson really should already have his spot at this point.  I would keep a close eye on Gibson’s progress and Minnesota’s transaction log because I think he could make an instant impact.

David Phelps (NYY) – Phelps has 156 strong innings at AAA the last two years yielding a 3.7 K/BB so I’m not sure why they even wasted their time with Brian Gordon, who had the impressive debut, but got obliterated on Wednesday in Cincinnati.  He is a 32-year old journeyman reliever and they are in the midst of a pennant race so Phelps or the next guy on this list, both college arms, probably should have gotten the nod there.  But that has passed.

The fact is that the 60% of their rotation is a question mark and you could make a case for as much as 80% given how unreliable AJ Burnett is start to start.  How much can Bartolo Colon deliver when he gets back from injury?  They can’t patchwork the entire rotation with rookies and so they will probably make a trade or two, but Phelps should get a chance at some point this year, especially if Phil Hughes doesn’t show marked improvement when he returns after two more rehab starts.

Adam Warren (NYY) – You can essentially re-read the above and fill in Warren for Phelps while tamping down the expectations a few notches as Warren hasn’t quite been as impressive.  He has just a 5.7 K/9 and 1.6 K/BB so don’t let his better ERA (3.07 to 3.38) fool you.  Still, Warren is a higher rated prospect within the org and minor league numbers don’t always tell the whole story so you will need to keep a close eye on the situation to know who is leading if/when another chance for promotion comes up.

Neil Ramirez (TEX) – How unexpected is Ramirez’s season?  He came in as the 27th ranked prospect in the org according to Baseball America and he was slated to start the season at High-A.  He did and in his only start there he struck out nine in 4.7 innings allowing just a hit and zero runs.  The AAA club needed an arm five days later so he got what was supposed to be a spot start.  After throwing six shutout innings against the blue chip-laden Kansas City Royals AAA affiliate allowing just three hits with five strikeouts and zero walks, the decision was made to keep him at AAA.

He hasn’t disappointed at all striking out 10 batters per game in his 62 innings and maintaining a strong 2.4 K/BB (the walk rate is a little high at 4.1) en route to a 3.65 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  He has unquestionably been the best starter for the AAA team, but whether that means he will get the call at some point this year remains to be seen.  He isn’t without flaws.

Though he can pile up the strikeouts, the walks are an issue as I mentioned and he has a heavy flyball lean (never more than 40% GB at any level including 38% this year) which could be problematic in Arlington during the middle of the summer.  The way he has responded to being thrust into AAA this year makes me like his long-term prospects, but in the short-term he could be Derek Holland-esque with some tantalizing starts as well as some flameouts.  He is far from the Rangers’ best pitching prospect, too, which tells you how well they are set up going forward.

Brad Mills (TOR) – He was in the midst of a great season showing that perhaps it wasn’t so hard to pitch in the PCL with a 2.86 ERA in 85 innings halfway through June.  He has hit one helluva rough patch the last two outings combining for just 11 innings allowing 13 runs (11 earned) thanks in large part to four home runs pushing his season ERA to 3.57 in an 11 day span.  His skills still remain quite strong though with an 8.1 strikeout rate, 2.3 walk rate and 3.6 K/BB rate in 96 innings of work.

Yet somehow Zach Stewart leapfrogged him from AA to replace Kyle Drabek in the rotation.  With only Ricky Romero pitching anywhere near expectations, Mills should get another shot (he has 30 MLB IP over the last two years) at some point this summer.  He picked a nice time to finally have a breakout season in the minors and tame AAA hitters after two unsuccessful tries in 2009 and 2010.

Tom Milone (WAS) – Speaking of breakout seasons, this mid-tier organizational prospect has exploded at the AAA level enhancing his already brilliant control while amping up his strikeouts a bit to post a Cliff Leeian 16.4 K/BB rate in 76 innings (Lee was at 16.3 after 139 innings last year, but a late summer swoon pushed him all the way down to 10.3, 2nd-best in MLB history).  Milone was quite impressive last year at AA, but he has taken it to another level this year allowing as many homeruns as he has walks (5 apiece).

He doesn’t have overpowering swing & miss stuff so it would be a minor miracle for him to post anything near a strikeout per inning at the big league level, but he can no doubt be a backend of the rotation asset as a control artist who spins a gem every once in a while.  We have seen several guys with this kind of profile do some good things in the majors, especially this year with offense down so much.  I think he can be a John Lannan-plus trading some of Lannan’s big groundball rate for a strikeout rate better than Lannan’s nearly unusable sub-5.0 marks of the last three years.  I hope Milone gets a call soon as I am eager to see what he can do in the majors and how much of his gaudy statistical profile will come with him.  They are really putting something together in Washington.  It’s not always *only* about the blue-chippers as you need glue guys like Milone.

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Wednesday: 06.22.2011

Second Base Addendum

After I posted the Keeper League Building Blocks for second base a reader mentioned a couple of names to me on Twitter that were to surprise exclusions for the reader: Dustin Ackley & Jemile Weeks.  The freshly called up prospects without 20 games between the two of them (17, 14 of which are Weeks’) weren’t included on purpose.  Anyone who has been reading this site for any amount of time since last year knows I am fan of both, so what gives?

A large portion of it has to do with their scant track records as we haven’t really seen how they will handle the majors leagues.  While I am bullish on both, I would certainly like to see more before recommending them as building blocks for a team.  Building block is the key phrase.  The point of this exercise is to identify the strongest and best players for your 2012 title run.  After all, you are trading your best 2011 pieces to your opponents so you need to get the best return possible.

Additionally, the fantasy profiles of each also contributes to their exclusion from a list that focuses so much on key contributors.  Ackley is supposed to be an on-base percentage monster (alas he’s yet to walk in his four games… so much for that, amirite???), but if you don’t play in an OBP league that hardly helps especially since he can have a great OBP based on walks with a batting average of .275 or below.

Let’s assume he does get on base at or near the 40% clip we’ve seen from him in his minor league career, who is going to drive him in?  They are less awful than last year’s historic futility, but they are still awful.  Beyond that, in the short-term he doesn’t profile to excel in any category whether as a pure hitter (batting average), a power producer (HR, RBI) or as a speedster (though he did get a 65 speed grade from Baseball America in their ’11 Handbook).  I think he can eventually become a .300+ hitter, but I don’t see it happening right away.

I really like Weeks, but like his brother Rickie he needs to show he can stay healthy which is something he has yet to do for a full season as a professional.  Initially he profiles as a speedster who could pile up SBs and use that speed for some extra hits en route to a good enough batting average (.260-.270).  Long-term his peak profile is a Ray Durham, but Durham didn’t start offering meaningful power or top .275 until his fourth year in the league.

The progression of youngsters isn’t linear so as hard as it is to project any player, it is even harder to project where Ackley & Weeks will go in 2012 and ultimately that is why I decided not to recommend them as essential building blocks for teams currently selling off their best players for foundational pieces.  If you have a deal lined up to get a building block, try to get one of these two thrown in, but don’t make them the centerpiece focus of a deal where you are trading your ace or $35 power bat.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Keeper Leagues, Minor Leagues, Player Focus, Prospects, Second Base, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trade Deadline | 5 Comments »

Tuesday: 06.21.2011

Keeper Building Blocks: Second Base

Second base is a position that has some sneaky depth.  To wit, on ESPN’s player rater the 3rd and 12th ranked second basemen are split by just 0.86 points on the scale.  Conversely, it’s a 3.35 point split at first base at least 2.72 at every other position except for relief pitcher (but that’s not too surprising giving how little variance there is between RPs).

Despite this depth at the position, there aren’t a ton of building blocks at the position as the best are in their late 20s and already high-priced assets and the next cut is also filled with mid-20s guys with solid production, but nothing overwhelming that you would want as a primary keeper.  Let’s take a look at the ones I did come up with, though.

Danny Espinosa (WAS, 24) – He just barely crossed the 100-game plateau for his career so there is a lack of track record, but it’s hard to argue with the across the board production even at the cost of batting average.  He has a career .250 BABIP so far, though, so we could even see some growth there.  I have been saying it since last year, but the Nats are really building something there in Washington and Espinosa will be a key part of the success.

Howard Kendrick (LAA, 27) – See what I mean?  There’s nothing wrong with the actual depth of the position, but it’s thin on burgeoning talent.  Even though he is atop of this list, if you combined the catchers, first basemen and second basemen, he’d be near the bottom.  He is on pace for .308-16 HR-11 SB, but just 52 RBI (thanks to an inept supporting cast) and decent 81 runs scored, again because of his teammates.  His price will vary from league to league, but considering that last year was his first full season and he already blew his shot at a second in a row this year, I doubt he’s too expensive anywhere.

Kelly Johnson (ARI, 29) – I have Johnson and Kendrick neck & neck here (along w/the next guy, to be honest).  Johnson’s .215 batting average is no doubt ugly, but I am more focused on the 27 HR-18 SB-71 RBI-87 R pace and since we are focused on 2012, his batting average this year doesn’t mean much.  He can be a .260ish or better hitter just as he was last year (.284) and in his two other full seasons (.287, .276).  However, like Kendrick, even with an average at his career .264 he isn’t a prime building block.

Ben Zobrist (TB, 30) – Rinse and repeat from the first two guys.  Zobrist has been an inconsistent, yet ultimately productive player the last two years and he is on pace for a season closer to his 2009 breakout when he was one of baseball’s best overall.  While many believe 2008 to be his career year, his current pace is just 6 HR, 9 RBI and 1 SB behind.  His runs are ahead by seven.  The biggest difference is his batting average which by just over 3% (.297 to .265), but the counting stats production across four categories is more important than the average.

Neil Walker (PIT, 25) – A younger option than the last three, but I still have him as the lowest because he doesn’t produce across the board like the others and his power lags a bit, at least right now.  He is doing his best work with runners on which has led to his gaudy RBI total, but we know it is hard to bank on that year-to-year and since that is his biggest category at this point I am reticent to rate too highly.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Keeper Leagues, Player Focus, Rankings, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trading | 6 Comments »

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Monday: 06.20.2011

Keeper Building Blocks: First Base

Continuing my series of the best Keeper Building Blocks for those with an eye toward 2012, let’s take a look at the remarkably deep position of first base.  While it is almost certainly the deepest position on the diamond, at least for hitters, it is heavy with premium talent.  This means we see a lot of early round talent from the position so finding cheap keepers at the position isn’t always a priority, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t there.

Part 1: Catchers

Joey Votto (CIN, 27 years old) – Yes, Votto is a premium early round, top dollar talent, but his meteoric rise to stardom means he could still be in the midst of a cheap contract in some leagues. This is the case in two of my leagues and so I thought it might not be a rarity.  Obviously, you’d have to sell the farm to get him, but if you are building for 2012, you shouldn’t be concerned about selling off multiple high dollar, non-keeper pieces to acquire him.  I fully realize that he won’t be on a cheap contract in ALL leagues, but given his unique circumstances, I thought he was worth mentioning.

Adam Lind (TOR, 27) – What the hell was that 2010 all about?  After a .305-35-114 breakout in 2009, Lind cratered like no one could have predicted falling to .235-23-72.  He has bounced back in full force and he is currently on pace for a massive season, even exceeding 2009, at .339-44-130.  Even if he “only” puts up a 2009 line, he is still going to be an appealing keeper because his 2010 failure drove down his price this preseason.

Gaby Sanchez (FLO, 27) – A strong rookie year from Sanchez last year got him some attention, but sub-20 HR first basemen aren’t in high demand and they often end up in the corner infield of a fantasy team.  However writing him off as a sub-20 HR 1B may have been a premature judgment as Sanchez has done some impressive work 70 games into his second season.  He is on pace for a .312-28-100 season which would no doubt boost him into the second tier.  He has improved his walk and strikeout rates while nothing in his batted ball profile suggests the extra power is huge fluke.  As a second year player he is cheap in almost all leagues and worth acquiring for a 2012 title run.

Justin Smoak (SEA, 24) – He underwhelmed in his 100-game debut season last year, but in 63 games this year he already has one more double and one home run fewer than last year despite 123 fewer at-bats.  Even though it is still not great, his .253 batting average is much improved from last year and I think there is growth potential for this youngster.  There may be some prospects you would find more desirable than Smoak because they are the new thing that hasn’t yet struggled in the majors, but remember how highly touted he was coming in and he is now more advanced than the first year guys we are seeing this summer.

Eric Hosmer (KC, 21) – This would be the type of prospect I suspect people have higher than someone like Smoak because fantasy baseball owners love blue chip prospects.  I am a big Hosmer fan too, but let’s be careful with our expectations.  His 600 at-bat pace for his current numbers would be 19 HR and 82 RBI and he’s insanely young so it is reasonable to project some growing pains for him whether this year or at times during 2012.  He is definitely someone worth pursuing as a keeper piece, but don’t expect him to produce at an elite level right away in 2012.  It could happen, but it would be an upset.

Ike Davis (NYM, 24) – I might have had Davis a little higher, but I would like to see him return from injury first.  He was off to an excellent start this year after a nice debut last year, but a 17% HR/FB suggests that his 30+ home run pace (prior to his DL stint) was unlikely to hold and probably would have evened out somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s.  Even still, at his cost he is definitely someone to acquire.

Mitch Moreland (TEX, 25) – An oddity in Moreland’s stat line this year is his meager RBI total (20) compared to what has otherwise been a strong season.  Part of the problem is that 55% of his at-bats have come with the bases empty and during that time he has hit seven of his eight home runs (he had a grand slam wiped out by a rainout earlier this year, too) and another part is that only 22% of his at-bats have come with runners in scoring position and he has sucked in just about all of them with a .196 AVG and .587 OPS.  But RBIs are team-dependent so I focus more on his dual-eligibility at first and the sneaky-thin outfield as well as his 20-25 home run power.  He isn’t a great player, but he’s probably $1 in a lot of leagues which makes him pretty valuable.

Brandon Belt (SF, 23) – This is tentative because we have to see him do something first.  Plus, in some leagues he was in the auction as opposed to the minor league draft and that drove his value up a lot.  For example he is $17 in one of my NL-Only leagues which is way too high of a price to consider him a keeper.

Anthony Rizzo (SD, 21) – Another tentative one as he has just eight games under his belt so far.  He and Belt are pretty close in my eyes so it’s a personal preference thing.  I lean toward Belt because I have seen more of him and believe in his skills, but Rizzo is almost certain to be cheaper in most leagues because he is probably on a rookie level contract (which is usually $5) so make your judgment based on your league.  Like I said, in that league where Belt is $17 I’m not interested, but he’s probably $5 in some leagues and that’s where I would give him the edge over Rizzo.

A lot of young first base has emerged and if you can get some of it for your core you can still supplement it with a big first base bat in next year’s auction or draft.  Power has been drying up a bit the last two years so don’t feel that just because you have one of these guys that you are set at the position.  Look at it as a beginning to your power base.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Keeper Leagues, Player Focus, Rankings, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trading | 9 Comments »

Monday: 06.20.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 19th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s an exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.  Check the sidebar on the right for previous editions of Twidbits.

Det – Det bullpen had 6.03 ERA on 5/22; now at 4.65 after a rebuild. In June: 2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 , 2 K/BB in 46 IP.

Col – Charlie Blackmon has shown speed right away w/5 SB in 12 G, but he has some pop as evidenced by .572 AAA SLG. Think Shane Victorino 07-09.

Pit – Garrett Jones is hitting .394 in June (13-33) & has started 6 of last 8 GP. Might finally have his job back; cheap pwr source

Pit2 – Why is Jones doing a French Stewart impersonation in his ESPN pic? http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28763/garrett-jones

Cle – Carlos Carrasco is on fire the last month: 2.8 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB. High GB% mitigates low K. Also 7 K/9, 3.4 K/BB in last 3.

Tor – Since breaking his L-streak, Jo-Jo Reyes is 3-1 w/3.21 ERA. Don’t be fooled though, 1.32 WHIP & 1.5 K/BB thanks to ugly 4.8 K/9.

Tor2 – Reyes was better when he was losing: 6.8 K/9 and 2.9 K/BB in first 49 IP of season. Avoid for now.

Cin – Preached caution w/Johnny Cueto few wks back for a few reas. incl. low K/9. Still lucky, but 6.5 K/9 & 3 K/BB in last 4. Still sell, but less worried.

LAA – Angels have a league-worst 4 (!) HR in June so far. 28 players have 4+ HRs. It’s a small miracle that they’re even 5-10 this month.

NYM – Jonathon Niese has allowed >2 ER just once since April 14th (2.65 ERA in 71 IP, 6.9 K/9) after allowed 5+ in 2 of his first 3 starts.

NYM2 – Need a cheap RP fill-in? Bobby Parnell has been excellent since returning from the DL: 1.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12.9 K/9, 5.5 K/BB in 8 IP.

Tex – Thru May Neftali Feliz had 9/14 K/BB in 19 IP w/10 SV. In June so far, he has 8 K, 1 BB in 7 IP w/4 SV. Appears to have course-corrected himself.

Atl – If you took both Jonny Venters & Craig Kimbrel to lock up ATL SVs, you’d have a 1.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 101 K, 6 W & 21 SV in 78 IP.

Atl2 – Vent/Kimb cont. That’s as many Ks as Tim Lincecum, better ERA than any SP, a WHIP equal to Dan Haren & 4th-most Ws… oh and most SVs in MLB.

Bal – Adam Jones is having a strong yr, but perennially wears down w/12 & 14 of his 19 HR the last 2 yrs in the 1st half. Has 10 so far. Sell?

Was – Michael Morse‘s Apr: .211/.253/.268 & cut in many lgs. Whoops!! Since: .364/.418/.729 w/12 HR, 33 RBI & 24 R. DON’T give up after 1 month.

Mil – Randy Wolf is the ultimate matchup guy w/8 starts of 65+ game scores & 6 sub-50s. Some of his best: Pit, Hou2x, Chc, Phi; worst: Cin, StL

Bos – Marco Scutaro is worth a pickup, espec. w/Jed Lowrie on the DL. He’s hitting .371/.421/.486 in June since returning. Nice Runs Scored option.

Flo – All but 3 regulars are at .254 or below in June for the Marlins; only 1 SP w/an ERA below 4.82 and that’s how you get a 1-17 record.

TB – Alex Cobb struggled in 1st 2 MLB starts w/7 ER & 8 BB in 11 IP, but he’s looked sharp since: 1.96 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.0 K/BB in 18 IP.

TB2 – Johnny Damon‘s pace of .277 AVG, 18 HR, 74 RBI, 16 SB, 74 R is somehow not good enough for Y! (54%) & CBS (80%) leaguers. Check your wire.

SD – I don’t care if he has 2 W all yr, how is Tim Stauffer so avail. (C 57%, Y! 40%, E 17%)? On pace for 207 IP w/7.1 K/9 & 3.2 K/BB. Buy NOW!

Min – No Twins pitcher w/5+ IP has an ERA over 3.27 in June. Francisco Liriano‘s last 33 IP (thru Sun.) 1.91 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 2.5 K/BB.

KC – Alcides Escobar is hitting .431/.453/.569 in last 14 G w/7 SB. Cheap speed at thin position if you need someone: E 47%, C 33%, Y! 19%.

StL – Since his Coors Collapse on 5/28, Jaime Garcia has 2.96 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 & 4.5 K/BB in 24 IP. In other words, it was a blip.

Hou – Wandy Rodriguez allowed 4-5-7 in 3 of 1st 5 GS (5.40 ERA). Since: 1.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB in 48 IP; 8 K/9 in last 26 IP.

Hou2 – Wandy (cont.) He’s not 100% rostered at any of major outlets, so don’t assume he’s owned in your league: E 95%, C 90%, Y! 77%

Hou3 – Not sure why Mark Melancon is so avail. He’s been great & Brandon Lyon is now out for yr: E 77%, Y! 50%, C 41%. Free saves!

LAD – Only 1 Dodgers SP has an ERA below 4.41 (Kuroda) & only 2 are below 5.52 (Lilly) thus a 5-11 June record for the tm.

LAD2 – One elite, one brand new, but I’d buy either Clayton Kershaw (5.95) & Rubby de la Rosa (5.52) if any was selling based on June swoon.

SF – Madison Bumgarner had a 7.79 ERA & 2.06 WHIP on 4/23. Since then he’s been among MLB’s best: 2.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 4 K/BB in 67 IP

SF2 – MadBum (cont.) Not 100% owned at 3 major outlets: E 92%, C 88%, Y! 67%. Check your lg to be sure. 3-8 W-L may offer discount via trade

Oak – A perennial 2H player, Coco Crisp is on pace for 47 SB along w/modest but useful 77 R, 50 RBI & 5 HR.

Oak2 – Crisp (cont.) Career .276 hitter, hit 8 HR in 75 G last yr. could surge in midsummer. Still available in many lgs. Buy even if just for the SBs.

Phi – Good SP is infectious as Vance Worley‘s 3.41 ERA is highest in the non-Blanton division of Philly SPs. Hamels-Halladay-Lee have 9+ K/9. Sick

Sea – Ichiro coming out biggest slump of his career? 7-game hitting streak w/6 multi-hit gms: .467/.484/.667 and 4 SBs. Could be in for absurd 2H.

CWS – Alexei Ramirez needed 6-for-13 rally at end of Apr. to finish .265/.318/.382. Rarely does well early. Since: .318/.380/.468.

CWS2 – Alexei (cont.) Know who you’re drafting. Career OPS in Apr: .580; only other month below .780 OPS is Sept at .705, he hates cold weather.

Ari – Daniel Hudson had 5.64 ERA in Apr; skills said much better. Skills win! Since: 7-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 4.5 K/BB. 6+ IP every GS.

NYY – Curtis Granderson‘s career yr is fueled by improvements v. LHP: .277/.337/.651–career .221/.281/.376. 20 HR v. LHP in 1st 5 yrs; 9 in ’11.

Chc – Carlos Marmol since 6 ER in 0.3 IP disaster: 1.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 13 K/9, 4.3 K/BB in 9 IP. Was a blip, but nothing to worry about at all.

Chc2 – Is Doug Davis a home spot starter? 2.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 23 IP incl. start v. Yankees. The 3.9 BB/9 suggests some caution.

 

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Sunday: 06.19.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 12 Monday-Friday

Another big week for Trolling the Wire that was actually the best week yet.  With a 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 4.7 K/BB in 70 innings, this week’s waiver wire pickups set four new records.  Only the K/9 failed to set a new high checking in at 7.9, just below the 8.2 record set in weeks 5 & 6.

I don’t mean to be boastful, but setting these records in week 11 is an impressive feat.  When you think about it, the records should have been easier to set earlier in the season when better guys were available.  As we sit 11 weeks in, a lot of rosters have multiple guys on their staff that they got from the wire, but there was still enough talent for us to better our teams via streaming.

Let’s see what week 12 brings…

MONDAY:

Jake Arrieta (BAL @ PIT) – He might finally start to be getting on a roll and he heads to Pittsburgh to face a below average lineup in a nice ballpark.

Gavin Floyd (CWS v. CHC) – He is right there on the fringe between just above and just below average which makes him a perfect matchup play.  The Cubs don’t have a particularly scary lineup and Floyd’s 3.0 K/BB skills should play well against them.

Juan Nicasio (COL @ CLE) – With a 3.6 K/BB powered by a 1.9 BB/9, Nicasio is making a nice impression out of the gate in his major league debut.  I was a fan of his coming into the season and though he made it to the big leagues faster than I expected, it appears to be the right call.

TUESDAY:

Dillon Gee (NYM v. OAK) – Gee at home (1.77 ERA v. 4.15 road) against an inferior offense is an auto-start.

James McDonald (PIT v. BAL) – Trolling has been on the McDonald for most of 2011 and while he burned us a bit early on, he has posted a 3.04 ERA in 10 starts since having a 10.12 ERA in his first four.

WEDNESDAY:

R.A. Dickey (NYM v. OAK) – Struggled in his last start, but even including that he has a 2.48 ERA with 7.0 K/9 in the last month so let’s pick on the A’s two days in a row.

Rick Porcello (DET @ LAD) – If you take out blow up starts against Boston and in Colorado, he has a 1.93 ERA in the last month.  The Dodgers are nowhere near the Red Sox or Rockies so I expect to see the good Porcello here.

THURSDAY:

Brian Duensing (MIN @ SF) – His skills have been strong the last month (7.2 K/9, 3.0 K/BB) despite poor results.  Against the Giants in their spacious park, the results should finally start catching up.

FRIDAY:

Tim Stauffer (SD v. ATL) – Stauffer has been amazing this year, yet he’s criminally under-owned.  Of course I’m going to take him at home against a middling offense.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE @ SF) – Carrasco was essentially my AL-version of James McDonald coming into this year, a deep sleeper I thought would take a big step forward.  He got off to a slow start, like McDonald, but he’s got a 2.72 ERA in the last month spanning 40 innings.

Scott Baker (MIN @ MIL) – The gopheritis scares me a bit as I have been burned by Baker too many times, but it’s hard to argue with how well he has been pitching so let’s ride the hot hand, even against Milwaukee.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 06.17.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 11 The Weekend

Quickly taking a look at the weekend Trolling picks…

SATURDAY:

Tim Stauffer (SD @ MIN) – Still massively under-owned for whatever reason even on the heels of back-to-back brilliant performances (15 IP, 0 ER w/13 K).  The Twins are playing better in June, but still have a below average team OPS.

Scott Baker (MIN v. SD) – Another under-owned arm that boggles my mind.  What more are people looking for?  He has 8.4 K/9, 3.4 K/BB and a 113 ERA+, he should be on a team permanently.  I realize pitching is deep this year, but not deep enough for guys like this to be on the wire.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE v. PIT) – Save his ugly first start of the year and a quick stint on the DL, he is fulfilling the promise I thought he had coming into with a 3.55 ERA since the 7 ER season debut.  He is understandably owned in fewer leagues, but definitely worth a matchup play against a modest offense.

SUNDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. LAA) – He’s a 2-start guy this week and I like him for both.  He offered a strong start on Tuesday against Atlanta (6.3 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 0 BB, W) and I think he can do even better against a putrid LA offense (league-worst .592 OPS in June).

Jeff Karstens (PIT @ CLE) – He gave Trolling users a gem last week and he is on a ridiculous hot streak so let’s ride the hot hand.  I wish he struck out more guys, but he walks nobody so it’s easier to swallow.

Results and Week 12 picks on Sunday.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 06.16.2011

Keeper Building Blocks: Catcher

The cliché is that hope springs eternal in baseball and that is no doubt especially so in fantasy baseball wherein you get to remake most, if not all, of your team each year.  Keeper leagues allow you to build a core and hopefully keep a winning tradition around for several years.  Of course, we know it doesn’t always work out that way.

Looking at the keeper lists in one of my leagues I saw one team as especially strong heading into auction day with Buster Posey, Jason Heyward and Madison Bumgarner at $5 apiece, Colby Rasmus for $10 and Matt Cain at $21.  This is an NL-Only league so he had a strong hitting base, an ace and second tier arm for $46.  Plus a $1 Omar Infante that offered flexibility and solid if entirely unspectacular production with the bat.

I never declare anyone the winner before auction, after auction, in May, etc… but I definitely pegged this team as a chief competitor.  Well we know how this plays out.  The two foundational hitters flopped with the former out for the year and the latter sidelined and being called out to get his butt back in the game.  How about his big auction buys?  Hanley Ramirez, Ubaldo Jimenez and Tim Lincecum.  Lincecum was dominant until a recent skid while Ramirez and Jimenez are trying to dig out of massive holes.

It just hasn’t worked out for this team and as such he decided to pack it in and begin selling off pieces to rebuild his core and give it a go again in 2012.  You may be faced with a similar scenario in your league.  You have made the decision to play for the future, but now you are wondering: who do I get for this supposed magical core of greatness?  I am so glad you asked.  Over the next few days I will be going position-by-position outlining the best core talents in the fantasy game*.

(*in my opinion)

This won’t just be a listing of the first rounds of this year’s average draft position.  Albert Pujols is no longer a cheap contract unless your league has weird rules, neither is Hanley.  Same goes for Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, David Wright, Robinson Cano, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira and you get the point.  Older stars who have been great for several years are now the $30+ guys year in and year out.  So I will be identifying the next wave of $30+ players who are still really cheap* with at least another year of low-dollar cost.

(*in most leagues, I can’t know every league so I will be making some assumptions and if a certain guy doesn’t fit the pricing in your league and he’s already a high dollar guy, just skip over him.)

We will start with catchers.

Carlos Santana (CLE, 25 years old) – He is definitely under-performing against expectations so far this year with a meager .216 batting aaverage, but he is still toting a .347 OBP and is on pace for 17 HRs and 63 RBIs, marks that would have put him 5th and 7th among catchers in 2010, along with 70 runs which would have been the 2nd-highest total for backstops a year ago.  The bar is low for catching so he doesn’t need to dominate on the level of a first baseman or outfielder to be worth a lot, alas I am still confident he has a big stretch in his bat this year.  Remember, he is coming off of a devastating leg injury from last year.

Matt Wieters (BAL, 25) – Funny how Santana is viewed as a disappointment while Wieters is thought to be having a strong showing thus far.  He is on pace for 13 more RBIs than Santana, but two fewer home runs and 14 fewer runs scored.  It is because snap judgments are often made by looking at the batting average first.  Wieters has a 59-point advantage in batting average yet he is 16-points back in on-base percentage so I’m still taking Santana.  Wieters hasn’t fulfilled the potential he was said to have coming up from the minors, but he’s improving.

Buster Posey (SF, 24) – Despite the injury, he is still someone worth building around because he is so talented.  He will have a long time to heal and given that there was initially talks of his return late this year, there is no reason to think he won’t be ready for the start of 2012.

Alex Avila (DET, 24) – He was a sleeper pick in AL-Only leagues and deeper mixed leagues especially for those who just go for lottery tickets at catcher opting to spend their money on more bankable positions and he has exceeded even the greatest expectations.  The power production (on pace for 21 HR) isn’t too surprising to me, but the 89 RBI pace and .304 average are huge bonuses.  I wouldn’t bet on the batting average, but he is likely a dollar in many leagues so he doesn’t need to hit better than .300 to have incredible value.  In some leagues he is probably a waiver pickup and leagues vary with their cost for pickups.  If he’s $10 (or more), I wouldn’t be so eager to acquire him.

Miguel Montero (ARI, 27) – This isn’t exactly a new level of production for Montero as he had a similar season in 128 games back in 2009.  Last year he battled injuries and played just 85 games.  In 60 games this year, he has nearly equaled his production from 2010 falling just a home run, nine RBIs and three runs shy while improving his average by 19 points.

JP Arencibia (TOR, 25) – Arencibia is a quick study.  He has learned, in short order, the Toronto philosophy to grip it ‘n’ rip it so despite a meager .232 average and horrendous .286 on-base percentage, he is on pace for 23 home runs and 80 RBIs.  A similar line from John Buck in Toronto last year made him a top 5 catcher (trading some RBIs for batting average which might push Arencibia down a few ranks, but you get the point).  In a two-catcher league, cheap power is a nice asset.

The list is thin, as you might expect, but that’s because quality offensive catchers are tough to come by so if you can find a cheap, productive one then he is worth using as a building block.  Even though we started with catchers, I would rate them last on the hierarchy of positions from which to build.  Though the hierarchy fluctuates based on the talent pool in baseball, catcher is pretty firmly entrenched at or at least down near the bottom.

Outfield would be the leader because of the young talent available and because it isn’t as deep as many assume.  You generally need at least four outfielders if not five plus some people use one for their DH and other owners might take OF-eligible players and put them in positions where they might better fit their team thus drying the pool further.

First base is the deepest talent pool, but it is rich with early round, high priced talent so it ranks second to outfield here.  Then it would be shortstop, second base and third base in that order.  Again, this is based on the current talent pool of cheap, keepable players that skew young.  I will go around the diamond in order of catcher-first base-second base-shortstop-third base-outfield before looking at pitching.  That’s a whole other field worthy of its own deep-dive discussion.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Keeper Leagues, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trading | 5 Comments »

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