Thursday: 06.15.2006

Miner Declares Major.

And it’s pitching! How did no one use that headline when he was promoted? It seems so easy. At any rate, Zach Miner went seven strong giving the Tigers three of four from the Devil Rays as they get set for interleague play. With their 43rd win, the team matched their 2003 season total! There was some talk over at DTW regarding the big record against inferior teams and middling record against the elite.

While I have been at the forefront of those (whiners?) suggesting the team needs to win against the big boys, I am plenty ok with this trend moving forward. My biggest gripe with the losses to the upper echelon of teams was the way some were lost late. If Tigers can hang at or above .500 against the best of the best and crush the garbage, then they will contend all year. Three of four from Tampa Bay is nice, the only reason I could see being at all upset is that all four were there on our plate.

Here are a few pieces on the Tigers, specifically Justin Verlander:

Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus breaks down Verlander (subscription required).

Steve DiMeglio of USAToday discusses Verlander’s rise prominence this season.

Posted in Data & News, Detroit Tigers | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 06.15.2006

Why Are You Here?

Who’s your Tiger?
Is it the homophobic gascan that can’t close a door much less a ball game?
Is it the overpaid pile of a crap that was inexplicably signed in the off-season?
Is it the stupid jackass paying more attention to non-creative hecklers than he is getting out of an inning?
My Tiger isn’t, nor will ever be, Todd Jones.

Posted in Detroit Tigers | 4 Comments »

Wednesday: 06.14.2006

Trade Redux: 2004

Two days after moving ace Tim Hudson, the Oakland Athletics management team made sure the entire league knew they were serious about re-tooling by trading Mark Mulder. Both pitchers were pieces of the heralded Big Three, completed by current Athletics pitcher Barry Zito. I think it’s inappropriately categorized as rebuilding, as the team remained competitive, but they did experience their third straight drop in wins in 2005. For Hudson, the Athletics received Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer, and Charles Thomas from the Atlanta Braves, meanwhile Mulder netted them Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton from the St. Louis Cardinals. Five of the six remain in the organization, with Cruz having been traded for Brad Halsey in late March of this year. First, I’ll look at how to the two departing pitchers have fared since leaving the A’s, then a deeper look at the five they acquired that they still have as well as Halsey contribution so far this season.

Tim Hudson
The trade was a homecoming party for Hudson, who was born in Columbus, GA and grew up a Braves fan. At 29, he had put together six sparkling seasons as the Oakland ace, including a 20-win season and two sub-3.00 ERA campaigns. More importantly, Hudson racked up 1240 and 2/3 innings with a 1.22 WHIP, 2.4 K:BB ratio, and allowed 0.68 HR/9. So you can understand the Braves’ frustration when Hudson came over and shaved a mere 0.01 of off his ERA, added 0.09 to his WHIP, and packed on 21 more walks from his 2004 totals. Things haven’t gotten much better in terms of Hudson pitching like he did in Oakland for the Braves. A look at Hudson’s overall numbers through his last start this season:

YEAR TM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1999 Oak 21 21 1 0 136.3 121 56 49 8 62 132 11 2 3.24 1.34 8.72 4.09 0.53
2000 Oak 32 32 2 2 202.3 169 100 93 24 82 169 20 6 4.14 1.24 7.52 3.65 1.07
2001 Oak 35 35 3 0 235 216 100 88 20 71 181 18 9 3.37 1.22 6.93 2.72 0.77
2002 Oak 34 34 4 2 238.3 237 87 79 19 62 152 15 9 2.98 1.25 5.74 2.34 0.72
2003 Oak 34 34 3 2 240 197 84 72 15 61 162 16 7 2.70 1.08 6.08 2.29 0.56
2004 Oak 27 27 3 2 188.7 194 82 74 8 44 103 12 6 3.53 1.26 4.91 2.10 0.38
2005 Atl 29 29 2 0 192 194 79 75 20 65 115 14 9 3.52 1.35 5.39 3.05 0.94
2006 Atl 14 14 2 1 93.7 88 44 39 6 30 63 6 4 3.79 1.26 6.05 2.88 0.58
Total   226 226 20 9 1526.3 1416 632 569 120 477 1077 112 52 3.36 1.24 6.35 2.81 0.71


Mark Mulder
Like the Braves, the Cardinals are wondering what Billy Beane knew that they didn’t (A quick sidenote: the Detroit Tigers took the Michigan State product in the 55th round (1455th overall) of the 1995 draft. He passed, went to the Spartans and ended up the 2nd overall to the A’s in 1998. Tough to argue with that decision!). A look at Mulder’s peripherals from 2004 suggest that the Cardinals should’ve treaded more cautiously when inquiring about the southpaw and thus it is no surprise that Beane & Co. were willing to take a capable starter, solid reliever, and top-flight prospect for him. In addition to raising his earned run average by more than 1 run, Mulder saw increases in his walks per nine innings, hits per nine, home runs per nine, and also predictably, his WHIP. He saw a similarly sharp decline strikeouts per nine. During his first season with the Cardinals, he saw another rise in hits per nine innings leading to another slight gan in WHIP. The strikeouts became even more scarce, but the earned run average declined due not only to a switch from the American to National League, but also drops in home runs per nine and walks per nine. The bottom has fallen out completely for Mulder thus far in 2006 as he totes an earned run average over 5.00 and his worst WHIP (1.43) since his rookie season. Mulder’s totals through his last start:

YEAR TM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2000 Oak 27 27 0 0 154 191 106 93 22 69 88 9 10 5.44 1.69 5.14 4.03 1.29
2001 Oak 34 34 6 4 229.3 214 92 88 16 51 153 21 8 3.45 1.16 6.01 2.00 0.63
2002 Oak 30 30 2 1 207.3 182 88 80 21 55 159 19 7 3.47 1.14 6.90 2.39 0.91
2003 Oak 26 26 9 2 187.7 180 66 65 15 40 128 15 9 3.13 1.17 6.14 1.92 0.72
2004 Oak 33 33 5 1 226.7 223 119 111 25 83 140 17 8 4.43 1.35 5.56 3.30 0.99
2005 StL 32 32 3 2 205 212 90 83 19 70 111 16 8 3.64 1.38 4.87 3.07 0.83
2006 StL 13 13 0 0 81.3 90 50 47 14 26 42 5 4 5.20 1.43 4.65 2.88 1.55
Total   195 195 25 10 1291.3 1292 611 567 132 394 821 102 54 3.96 1.31 5.72 2.75 0.92


Ranking the six components that Oakland received would be something like this in my estimation:
1. Haren
2. Calero
3. Barton
4. Cruz-Halsey
5. Thomas
6. Meyer

Dan Haren
With 119 and 2/3 innings under his belt, the A’s knew they were adding a fresh, yet seasoned pitcher to their stable. Ranked the #1 prospect of the Cardinals in 2003, Haren dominated the Class AA Southern League before moving up to the AAA club. There he struggled, but still earned a call-up and started 14 games for the Cardinals. He pitched rather miserably in 72 2/3 innings with a 5.08 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He started the 2004 league back in AAA with the Memphis Redbirds. He was solid in 21 starts and earned another trip up to the bigs. He pitched in 14 games again, but only five were starts and showing dramatic improvement. The move to Oakland secured his placement in the major leagues as he started 34 games and enjoyed a sparkling debut season in an A’s uniform. At age 25, he is in his second season with the A’s and firmly entrenched in their rotation. With the continued injury problems of Rich Harden, Haren assumes the #2 slot behind Barry Zito. If Zito as traded as daily rumors suggest he may be, Haren would become their ace while Harden heals. Haren also has his own blog over at MLB.com that I have had linked since this site’s launch. You can check it out right here, meanwhile, here are his career numbers:

YEAR TM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2003 StL 14 14 0 0 73.7 84 44 41 9 22 43 3 7 5.08 1.44 5.25 2.69 1.10
2004 StL 14 5 0 0 46 45 23 23 4 17 32 3 3 4.50 1.35 6.26 3.33 0.78
2005 Oak 34 34 3 0 217 212 101 90 26 53 163 14 12 3.73 1.22 6.76 2.20 1.08
2006 Oak 13 13 1 0 90.7 85 37 36 11 15 70 5 5 3.61 1.10 6.95 1.49 1.09
Total   75 66 4 0 425.3 426 205 190 50 107 308 25 27 4.02 1.25 6.52 2.26 1.06



Kiko Calero
Calero, like Mulder, has a Tigers sidenote as he was also drafted by them. In 1994, he was taken in the 41st Round (1142nd overall), but instead opted to wait two years and go in the 27th Round (799th overall) to the Kansas City Royals. He should’ve entered a third time given the state of those two teams during the mid-90s. Calero labored through seven minor league seasons before starting the 2003 season with the Cardinals. For his patience, he was rewarded with 26 appearances including a spot start. He answered the bell striking out 12 batters per nine innings and posting a 2.28 earned run average in 38 1/3 innings. He was even more impressive in 41 games the following season. He fanned 9.3 per nine yielded just 0.82 baserunners per inning to go with a 2.78 earned run average. Moving to Oakland, he remained an integral bullpen piece appearing in 58 games with 3.23 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The 30-year old continues to be Oakland’s bullpen workhorse already pitching in 31 games this season. His results have not been as good as the previous three years, but he continues to be effective:

YEAR TM G IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 SV HLD BS
2003 StL 26 38.1 29 12 12 5 20 51 1 1 2.82 1.29 12.05 4.72 1.18 1 1 3
2004 StL 41 45.1 27 14 14 5 10 47 3 1 2.78 0.82 9.38 2.00 1.00 2 12 1
2005 Oak 58 56.2 45 20 20 6 18 52 4 1 3.23 1.12 8.33 2.88 0.96 1 12 1
2006 Oak 31 25.1 22 12 12 2 12 30 0 1 4.26 1.35 10.76 4.30 0.72 1 13 2
Total   156 165.2 123 58 58 18 60 180 8 4 3.17 1.11 9.81 3.27 0.98 5 38 7



Daric Barton
Barton hasn’t seen major league time like Thomas and the Cruz-Halsey combo, but he entered 2006 as the team’s top prospect according to Baseball America. At 20, he is one of the most dangerous left handed hitters in all of the minor leagues. Here is a piece of what BA had to say about him (subscriber portion, so only part it copied):

Strengths: Hitting comes easy for Barton, who has natural ability to go along with a mature approach. He has a short swing and picture-perfect mechanics, with a fluid load and quick explosion through the zone. His pitch recognition is off the charts. He draws a large number of walks while still being an aggressive hitter, equally comfortable turning on inside fastballs or slicing outside breaking balls the other way. Barton holds his own against lefthanders. He took well to first base in his first year there and shows the potential for improvement. He has good instincts, soft hands and decent range.

The A’s moved him from catcher to 1st base as they felt it was stunting his progress. Beane had high praise for Barton calling him the best pure hitter in the minors shortly after acquiring him. He exhibits unmatched plate patience, an Oakland hallmark, while his power potential remains a point of contention. Some place his ceiling in the low 30s, others feel as though he won’t be much of a power threat seeing him top out in the high teens, low 20s. In 43 games for Sacramento this season, he has just two home runs, but remains incredibly disciplined at the dish with 32 walks against 26 strike outs and a .259/.389/.395 line. His complete minor league numbers through 2005:

Year Team Name League Age Org. Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SF AVG OBP SLG OPS
2003 Johnson City App 18 Stl Rk 54 172 29 50 10 0 4 29 0 3 37 48 2 0 3 0.291 0.416 0.419 835
2004 Peoria Midw 19 Stl A 90 313 63 98 23 0 13 77 4 4 69 44 8 9 3 0.313 0.445 0.511 956
2005 Stockton Calif 20 Oak A+ 79 292 60 93 16 2 8 52 0 1 62 49 3 0 4 0.318 0.438 0.469 907
  Midland Tex 20 Oak AA 56 212 38 67 20 1 5 37 1 1 35 30 0 1 2 0.316 0.410 0.491 901
Total           279 989 190 308 69 3 30 195 5 9 203 171 13 10 12 0.311 0.431 0.478 909



Juan Cruz
Cruz has been seen as a premium talent, but a budding project dating all the way back to his days with the Chicago Cubs. Even now, still just 27 years old, with the Arizona Diamondbacks he is as capable of tossing a gem as he is allowing six runs in 1 1/3 innings. He has yet to put it all together. He was awful in his one season with the A’s immediately making himself expendable this off-season. Here are his career numbers:

YEAR TM G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BS ERA K/9 BB/9
2001 ChC 8 8 45.7 40 16 16 4 17 39 3 1 0 0 0 3.22 7.68 3.35
2002 ChC 45 9 97.3 84 56 43 11 59 81 3 11 1 3 3 3.98 7.49 5.46
2003 ChC 25 6 61 66 44 41 7 28 65 2 7 0 1 1 6.05 9.59 4.13
2004 Atl 50 0 72 59 24 22 7 30 70 6 2 0 2 0 2.75 8.75 3.75
2005 Oak 28 0 33.7 38 33 27 5 22 34 0 3 0 0 0 7.44 9.08 5.88
2006 Ari 14 7 47.7 34 21 21 3 24 41 3 3 0 0 0 4.05 7.74 4.53
Total   170 30 354.3 321 194 170 37 180 330 17 27 1 6 4 4.32 8.38 4.57


Brad Halsey
Halsey was acquired for Cruz this off-season and is a bit of a similar story. His arm isn’t as electric, but he is also struggling to find his niche as he has been with three teams in three seasons. He’s performed admirably as a starter-reliever combo with a 4.10 earned run average in 53 and 2/3 innings. A glance at his career numbers:

YEAR TM G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BS ERA K/9 BB/9
2004 NYY 8 7 32 41 26 23 4 14 25 1 3 0 0 0 6.47 7.03 3.94
2005 Ari 28 26 160 191 101 82 20 39 82 8 12 0 0 0 4.61 4.61 2.19
2006 Oak 19 6 53.2 57 26 24 8 25 28 3 2 0 1 0 4.10 4.74 4.23
Total 55 39 245.2 289 153 129 32 78 135 12 17 0 1 0 4.75 4.96 2.86



Charles Thomas
After a solid 83 game debut for the Braves, many believed Thomas could end up as a useful piece of the trade for the A’s in their lineup. So far, that has not been the case. He wasn’t given much of a shot in 2005, but didn’t impress in limited time. He saw action in 30 games batting .109 in 46 at-bats. In that debut, he hit .288/.368/.445 with 19 extra base hits and 31 runs batted in over the course of 236 at-bats. His effectiveness has been limited in 51 games with AAA Sacramento this season. He has a .279/.327/.317 line in 183 at-bats.

Dan Meyer
Meyer has not panned out as expected thus far. He will turn 25 years old this July meaning there is still time, but he was on the fast track to a major league rotation in the Atlanta organization, but he has stagnated in his time with Oakland. Coming through the Atlanta system, he was an overpowering pitcher that limited walks, now those two figures have made a catastrophic bolt for the middle. From 2002-2004, Meyer held a commanding 4.4 K:BB ratio with 381 strikeouts in 352 innings. His 2005 season in Sacramento through 10 starts this year, that figure has plummeted to 1.5. He had never posted an earned run average above 2.87, but holds a bulky 5.26 earned run average in 138 and 2/3 innings with the Oakland organization.

Year Team Lg Age Org. Level W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2002 Danville App 21 Atl Rk 3 3 2.74 13 13 1 0 65.2 47 22 20 4 18 77 4 6.44 0.55 2.47 10.55 0.99
2003 Rome SAL 22 Atl A 4 4 2.87 15 15 0 0 81.2 76 35 26 6 15 95 7 8.38 0.66 1.65 10.47 1.11
2003 Myrtle Beach Caro 22 Atl A+ 3 6 2.87 13 13 0 0 78.1 69 29 25 7 17 63 1 7.93 0.80 1.95 7.24 1.10
2004 Greenville Sou 23 Atl AA 6 3 2.22 14 13 0 0 65 50 17 16 1 12 86 2 6.92 0.14 1.66 11.91 0.95
2004 Richmond IL 23 Atl AAA 3 3 2.79 12 11 0 0 61.1 62 23 19 6 25 60 2 9.10 0.88 3.67 8.80 1.42
2004 Atlanta Braves MLB 23 Atl MLB 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 9.00 0.00 4.50 4.50 1.50
2005 Sacramento PCL 24 Oak AAA 2 8 5.36 19 17 0 0 89 101 64 53 15 43 63 2 10.21 1.52 4.35 6.37 1.62



Hindsight, as we all know, is 20/15, but the Oakland A’s have done quite well for themselves. Whether it is their advanced scouting, their numbers-crunching, or their hunches, they moved Hudson and Mulder at precisely the right time. Both moves had their critics seen merely as small-market dump deals. Beane no doubt moved more expensive players for less expensive and may again do so with Zito, but his team remains competitive year in and year out. The Kansas City Royals have dumped the likes of Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, and Carlos Beltran in a series of their own small-market dump deals, but they haven’t been nearly as effective as Oakland boasting just Angel Berroa and John Buck as the remnants of those moves. Meanwhile, all three players they have moved are among the best at their position either offensively, defensively, or both.

With the long-term signing of Eric Chavez, the A’s have shown that they aren’t just going to be a revolving door of mid-20 somethings that get shipped on the cusp of free agency. And when they do let a high-priced free agent go, they utilize their compensatory picks quite well. In 2004, a supplemental pick for Miguel Tejada locked up current closer Huston Street with pick #40. For losing Ray Durham, they picked up Omar Quintanilla (now with Colorado) in the 2003 draft. Catcher Jeremy Brown of Moneyball fame was taken in 2002 with the Jason Giambi compensatory pick. Four picks later, they took Mark Teahen with a pick gained from the loss of Johnny Damon. Teahen would prove instrumental as he was traded in the move that got Octavio Dotel in 2004. As Michael Lewis’ famous account of Beane & Co. highlighted when it was released in the Spring of 2003, you don’t have to be cash rich to be talent rich.

Hopefully you enjoyed the second installment of Trade Redux. They aren’t done specifically to laugh a team that botched a trade or overly praise someone’s success, rather just a look back as the move goes from crystal ball to crystal clear. In a few years, hopefully I can do a Trade Redux on a Todd Jones for half eaten bag of Cheez-Its transaction. Whoever the poor sap on the other end is will be mighty angry that he passed on the tasty cheese crackers when he realizes what he got in return.

Posted in Data & News, Minor Leagues | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 06.13.2006

The Pace Game II.

The team has now gone plowed through 40% of the season and they are still atop the baseball world with a 41-23 record holding a narrow 1.5 game margin over the Chicago White Sox. At the 20% mark, I took a look at the kind of pace the team was on. Given the small sample, a lot of things were skewed both postively and negatively. Sample size caveats aren’t completely erased at this mark, but players are definitely settling in heading into mid-June. Here is the second look at the hitters:

NAME G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Curtis
Granderson		 159 595 96 170 35 5 23 78 99 180 10 10 0.285 0.385 0.477 0.862
Magglio
Ordonez		 152 592 89 180 30 0 33 109 46 91 3 3 0.303 0.353 0.521 0.874
Ivan
Rodriguez		 142 587 76 182 28 8 13 76 25 78 8 3 0.310 0.342 0.448 0.790
Placido
Polanco		 134 572 48 162 20 0 8 58 10 38 0 5 0.283 0.303 0.358 0.662
Chris
Shelton		 159 557 76 157 25 8 30 76 48 172 0 3 0.282 0.346 0.518 0.864
Carlos
Guillen		 154 549 73 159 41 3 18 89 66 101 20 13 0.290 0.368 0.470 0.838
Craig
Monroe		 149 534 86 124 20 0 25 71 28 137 3 5 0.232 0.272 0.412 0.685
Brandon
Inge		 154 519 89 111 20 3 33 91 48 124 5 5 0.215 0.281 0.454 0.734
Marcus
Thames		 99 319 73 99 30 0 30 53 35 78 0 0 0.310 0.389 0.690 1.079
Omar
Infante		 66 228 30 63 10 3 5 25 10 51 3 3 0.278 0.323 0.411 0.734
Dmitri
Young		 38 149 13 25 8 0 0 10 10 46 3 0 0.169 0.222 0.220 0.443
Vance
Wilson		 46 134 13 35 8 0 3 15 0 38 0 3 0.264 0.291 0.377 0.668
Ramon
Santiago		 58 134 20 25 0 3 0 3 3 25 3 0 0.189 0.204 0.226 0.430
Alexis
Gomez		 51 124 20 28 5 3 0 5 8 23 5 0 0.224 0.269 0.306 0.575
Total 162 5594 802 1521 281 33 220 759 435 1182 61 51 0.271 0.327 0.450 0.777



Most disconcerting right away is, though he has been very good otherwise, Curtis Granderson is striking out WAY too much! You can be an effective leadoff with gobs of strikeouts (see also: Sizemore, Grady), but even Sizemore “only” had 132 last year. I suspect Granderson will end the season somewhere near that figure as opposed to 180, but at least he’s on pace for almost 100 walks as well. Strikeouts are often judged more severely because they are “unproductive” outs, but if he is striking out to lead off a game, it’s the same as if he lines out to second. (Yes, that is called spin!) Chris Shelton‘s paced out numbers predictably came way down, but he is also on pace for over 170 strikeouts. If he works hard at getting back to where he was last year as opposed to swinging out of his shoes in every at-bat, I think he will strikeout less than 150 times. Magglio Ordonez has settled into a comfortable .300-30-100 pace that he is unlikely to deviate too far from. I still don’t buy Brandon Inge as a 30-home run hitter, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be entirely pleased with 33-91. Marcus Thames‘ HR:RBI ratio will balance out as he continues to play everyday. He is more likely to play all of the remaining 99 games than he is to end with just 99 played in all.

Now for the pitching:

NAME G GS W L Sv IP H ER R HR BB SO WHIP ERA
Jamie Walker 53 0 0 0 0 48 35 5 5 5 5 43 0.83 0.93
Joel Zumaya 63 0 8 0 3 81 46 20 20 8 41 96 1.06 2.25
Fernando Rodney 71 0 10 5 18 79 38 23 25 10 46 73 1.05 2.59
Chris Spurling 23 0 0 0 0 28 33 10 10 5 10 10 1.50 3.18
Justin Verlander 33 33 18 10 0 213 190 78 84 28 63 124 1.19 3.32
Kenny Rogers 33 33 20 8 0 210 200 81 86 25 51 116 1.19 3.46
Nate Robertson 33 33 15 8 0 200 192 78 91 25 78 144 1.34 3.50
Mike Maroth 23 23 13 5 0 122 142 48 51 20 38 56 1.48 3.56
Jordan Tata 18 0 0 0 0 35 23 15 18 3 18 15 1.14 3.86
Jeremy Bonderman 33 33 15 10 0 213 195 101 101 13 61 177 1.20 4.29
Jason Grilli 43 0 0 0 0 51 53 25 25 3 33 18 1.67 4.43
Zach Miner 5 5 3 3 0 25 28 13 13 8 10 18 1.50 4.50
Todd Jones 61 0 3 10 43 61 84 43 43 5 13 18 1.58 6.38
Bobby Seay 35 0 0 0 0 38 35 28 28 3 23 30 1.50 6.46
Roman Colon 18 3 0 0 0 41 51 30 30 13 15 30 1.56 6.48
Total 162 162 104 58 63 1451 1344 600 630 172 504 969 1.27 3.72



Pacing out pitching is much more volatile than hitting for obvious reasons. Roles change much more within bullpens and rotations than they do a team’s lineup. Most obvious is the fact that Mike Maroth‘s innings will be going (for now) to Zach Miner making both of their projections pretty much worthless for this exercise. In terms of my own projection of Miner going forward, I will need at least three more starts before I’m comfortable enough to guess. Bullpen decisions are also skewed this early. If Todd Jones continues to pitch the way he has recently, not only will he not be around for 40+ saves, but certainly won’t be given a chance to lose 10 games. The path the starting rotation is following remains remarkably pleasing. I don’t think they’ll boast four 15-game winners by year’s end, but Joel Zumaya might be in a position to register double-digit wins given his use in high leverage situations. No one is on pace for 200 strikeouts with Jeremy Bonderman coming closest, but the team as a whole is striking out almost twice as many batters as they walk (1.92 K:BB).

There you have it, folks. Just some early numbers to chew on. There is still a ton of baseball to play during which some of these paces will be obliterated, for better or worse. Tonight the Tigers face struggling pitcher Seth McClung (2-8, 6.25 ERA, 0.76 K:BB). Thank God for MLB.tv Mosaic so that I can watch it along with Johan Santana v. Curt Schilling in Minnesota.

Posted in Analysis, Detroit Tigers | 1 Comment »

Monday: 06.12.2006

The Aftermath.

Notice the bridge and notice the lack of me standing on the ledge. Don’t worry, I’m just swimming on the other side and I’ll dive headfirst into that rock on the right if we drop 3 of 4 to Tampa Bay. Seriously though, I am at least still a little frustrated with some of the losses the team suffered in games they could’ve easily locked down in the win column. I don’t have quite the rosy outlook of some of the spin doctors, but I’m far less angry than I was at the time of the collapses. It is tough to be too critical given the fact that the team has emerged from the hellish stretch with their league-best record intact. In fact, they are the league’s first team to 40 wins and are in a tie with the New York Mets for the fewest losses at 23. Next up is Tampa Bay for four including a game tonight against one of the best young pitcher’s in baseball in Scott Kazmir.

The problems during past 13 games are directly related to the hitting, or lack thereof. That isn’t to say the pitching (namely the bullpen) is faultless, but I’ll get to them in a moment. Looking at the June numbers, which cuts off the first two games of the New York series that closed out the month of May, the team is hitting a dreadful .256/.312/.413. Sadly, it isn’t much worse than their May totals of .264/.319/.436. A team that relies on the home run isn’t hitting them anymore. Though yesterday’s 10-5 victory over Toronto featured just one home run, the team’s reliance is still evident as Brandon Inge and Marcus Thames home runs on Saturday accounted for all five runs in a 5-3 win. I’m not overly concerned with the home run mentality as I am the awful team on-base percentage. If you want to go for the 3-run homer Earl Weaver style, you still have to get two guys on base.

Don’t Blame Granderson
Leadoff hitter Curtis Granderson did the best he could to set things up for the lineup in the last two weeks. During the 13-game stretch, Granderson went .275/.420/.429 with three doubles, a home run, 10 walks and 16 strikeouts. The .420 on-base is especially encouraging. Unfortunately, he was cashed in just eight of 21 times he reached base. BBP hero, Marcus Thames, also stepped up in his expanded role as he has clubbed four home runs with a team-best 1.165 OPS in June. Both Magglio Ordonez and Ivan Rodriguez have also continued to swing the bat very well. After those four, the dropoff in June production is huge. The highest OPS outside of those four belongs to Placido Polanco at .797 and that is only because four of his eight hits have gone for extra bases. He is part of a large group playing below expectations lately. Chris Shelton remains mired in a colossal slump and seems eager to draw even with Dan Johnson in terms of production despite Johnson’s painfully slow start. Carlos Guillen wasn’t as bad as some of the others, but his OPS is low because just one of his nine hits during the stretch wasn’t a single. Several of his eight runs batted in proved key to the team. Alexis Gomez, Inge, Omar Infante, Craig Monroe, Ramon Santiago, and Vance Wilson have combined to hit .204 in June and have more or less been an smorgasbord of crap.

Starting Off Well
Of the starters, only Justin Verlander has struggled of late allowing 10 runs in his last two starts for an 8.18 earned run average. He earns at least a partial pass if not a full freebie given that he’s been tremendous in his rookie season and was due for a rough patch. Jeremy Bonderman, Zach Miner, Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers put together six quality starts over their last eight absolving them from any significant blame in the 5-8 stretch. The bulk of the blame, as we all know, falls on the shoulders of the bullpen. Both closing candidates, Todd Jones and Fernando Rodney, did more harm than good allowing 12 runs in a 8 1/3 innings of work. Jason Grilli and Bobby Seay also struggled to get batters out adding to the pen problems. Only Jamie Walker and Joel Zumaya were consistently effective out of Chuck Hernandez‘s bullpen. Zumaya’s excellence may have earned him a shot at the closer’s job, but frankly I prefer him in the 7th and 8th inning high leverage situations.

So what now? After Tampa Bay, the team starts a big interleague stretch against the NL Central in which they should find themselves in position to win plenty of games (as with the 13-game stretch), but if the bullpen doesn’t straighten itself out and more than half of the lineup doesn’t start hitting or at least getting on base, then they will have their share of problems. Nothing in the 13 games screamed that this team is dead. There were times they lost their poise and subsequently the game, but I don’t think they were exposed as early season frauds. I will say this, if we as fans expect them want to contend through the Summer and into the Fall, a few moves are in order, especially at the plate. No part of me wants to see the Barry Bonds whispers come to fruition. I’d much rather acquire just about anyone else. Not only are his personality and attitude questionable at best, but his levels of production aren’t what they used to be as pitchers are learning that he is no longer the “must-walk” batter he used to be. Other quality candidates available via trade will emerge as the season pushes closer to the July 31st deadline and before even knowing who they may be, I already know I’m more comfortable with the team pursuing them over Bonds.

Tomorrow, we’ll play the second installment of the Pace Game.

Posted in Data & News, Detroit Tigers | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 06.11.2006

Jays Clipped.

The team took 2 of 3 from the Toronto Blue Jays with a convincing 10-5 victory. This is especially good news for readers because I will stop whining, at least for a few days. I’ll write about the entire series later. In the meantime, I’m headed to dinner before the season three premier of Entourage. I’ll end with some quotes from the show:

Ari Gold: We are gonna get drunk with Russell Crowe and we’re gonna head-butt some goddamn kangaroos.

Bob Saget leaves
Vincent Chase: Who the f**k was that guy?

Drama: The ultimate guy cry movie
Turtle: He cries in front of her, shows her he’s sensitive, bang! he moves right in.
Drama: His tears will basically act as a lubricant.

Ernesto: [intercom] Sorry, Lloyd. It’s a company car. Mr. McQuewick said I can’t give it to him.
Ari Gold: Can’t give it to me? Ernesto, how many f**king pesos did I give you for Christmas? Huh, Ernesto? Every Christmas for the past decade? Half of Mexico is eating on my tips that I have given you. Now bring my motherf**king car now, por favor!
Ernesto: [intercom] Sorry, Mr. Gold, I can’t do it. Oh, and Mr. Gold. I’m from Guatemala, and our currency is the Quetzal.

Ari Gold: That was a good speech, Lloyd. If only I were 25 and liked c**k, we could be something.

Ari Gold: Lloyd, pack up all my files. pile everything you see into a box. Everything. If you see a used condom and an executioner’s mask and a G*d-damned spiked paddle, don’t think — just pack that b**ch. Chop suey!

Ari Gold: Lloyd, get in here, I wanna make out with you!!!
Lloyd: Coming!

Posted in Detroit Tigers, Television | 1 Comment »

Friday: 06.9.2006

My Fault.

I clearly overrated this team. Yes, skids happen. Yes, you can’t win them all. But this is as unacceptable as it is pathetic. This team has definitely come a long way, but they aren’t nearly as good as I thought. My fault. When do we get Tampa Bay again?

Great pic from Kurt over at Mack Avenue Tigers that I’m going to steal, but give full credit for:

Posted in Detroit Tigers | 4 Comments »

Friday: 06.9.2006

Another Salvaged Series.

At least the team took one. Off to Toronto to try and win a freakin’ series. Some still haven’t seen the grave importance of this stretch or maybe I’m overrating it. Time will tell, but it has been a disappointing run. Could be a homerfest this weekend at Rogers Center with some homer-happy offenses. I previewed Toronto before the Chicago series and it can be found here. I will likely drop a more substantial post before the weekend hits, but I finally got a job today so I might start celebrating early. Go Tigers!!!!!

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Wednesday: 06.7.2006

I Are Scientists

I’m super-pissed about yet another close loss for my Detroit Tigers, but after seeing my favorite band, We Are Scientists in concert tonight at Stubbs, I’m in no mood (or condition) to go off on the ballclub. I’m not sure if any of my readers are W.A.S fans, but they were absolutely amazing!! I cannot believe they didn’t play “What’s the Word” though. I’m simply dumbfounded by that. They played 11 of the 12 songs on their debut album, With Love and Squalor, with the lone omission being arguably (likely) their best song. At any rate, I still loved the show. It was the second time I’ve seen them, but the first time being fully aware of the album. The last (first) time I saw them was at the end of SXSW with She Wants Revenge and I didn’t know any of their songs. From there, they become my favorite band and I’ve been jamming the hell out of them ever since.

Take a listen/look:

If, for some reason, you deem my music opinions worthy based solely on your enjoyment of the baseball portion of this blog and want to try out the CD, have at it… you’ll also be supporting BBP:

Posted in Detroit Tigers, Music | 2 Comments »

Wednesday: 06.7.2006

Alfonso Soriano: NL MVP?

With the injury to Albert Pujols, the National League Most Valuable Player is at least temporarily back up for grabs. Pujols can probably miss 3-4 weeks comfortably without losing the inside track to the award, but let’s examine another candidate if only to highlight the kind of season he is having. Washington Nationals leftfielder Alfonso Soriano has transitioned remarkably well into both a National Leaguer and an outfielder. Two and a half months ago, Soriano was refusing to play his new position in a preseason game for the Nats. Many predicted a turmoil-ridden stint in Washington that would likely end before the season ran out. Instead, Soriano is having a career year and actually receiving some accolades for his improved play in left. Neither Soriano nor the Nationals have discussed an extension, but you can bet that the team is far more interested in one than they were in the preseason.

With his 22nd home run last night, Soriano raised his pace for 2006 to 60, which would set a new career-best by 21 (2002). During the 2002 season, he was just one home run from becoming the 4th member of the 40 HR-40 SB club. If he maintained his current paces, he would be the lone member of the 60-30 club. In fact, he is on pace to set watermarks in home runs, runs batted in, walks, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage:

Year Team AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
2006 WAS 239 44 74 22 45 19 13 0.310 0.363 0.628
On Pace WAS 656 120 203 60 123 52 35 0.310 0.362 0.625
2005 TEX 637 102 171 36 104 33 30 0.268 0.309 0.512
2004 TEX 608 77 170 28 91 33 18 0.280 0.324 0.484
2003 NYY 682 114 198 38 91 38 35 0.290 0.338 0.525
2002 NYY 696 128 209 39 102 23 41 0.300 0.332 0.547
2001 NYY 574 77 154 18 73 29 43 0.268 0.304 0.432
2000 NYY 50 5 9 2 3 1 2 0.180 0.196 0.360
1999 NYY 8 2 1 1 1 0 0 0.125 0.125 0.500



But is it good enough for MVP consideration? First off, his Nationals are 26-33 and very unlikely to finish to the season above .500. Fair or not, that alone eliminates him from several ballots. Winning the MVP as part of a sub-.500 team just doesn’t happen. There are exceptions, most recently Alex Rodriguez nabbing the hardware as part of a 71-91 Texas Rangers team, but there have been too many cases where a superior player on an inferior team gives way to the leader of a winning team. Rodriguez once again comes to mind as he clearly outclassed Miguel Tejada in 2002, but Tejada’s A’s had 31 more wins and a playoff berth. So from the outset, Soriano is unlikely to get the proper consideration that his numbers warrant (should he hold/improve the pace of his numbers). Thus, we’re already engaging in a hypothetical situation.

Looking at it hypothetically allows us to examine the statistics that are typically overlooked in the voting process. First, let’s look at Win Shares. Hardball Times gives us a look at the leaders thus far:

(*note-I’ve eliminated Pujols, who is obviously first and also the pitchers assuming, maybe incorrectly, that the MVP will go to a hitter)

Through 5/26/06

Year  Last  First  Tm  Lg  Pos  Batting  Fielding  ExpWS  WSP  WSAB  TOT WS
2006 Berkman L HOU NL 1B 10 0.8 5 1.009 7 11
2006 Abreu B PHI NL OF 9.6 0.9 5 0.986 7 10
2006 Utley C PHI NL 2B 8.9 1.3 5 0.937 6 10
2006 Beltran C NYN NL OF 6.5 2.4 4 1.007 6 9
2006 Giles B SD NL OF 7.9 1.2 5 0.777 5 9
2006 Ensberg M HOU NL 3B 8.9 0.6 5 0.828 5 9
2006 Estrada J ARI NL C 5.1 2.7 3 1.019 5 8
2006 Winn R SF NL OF 5.7 2 5 0.667 4 8
2006 Lee C MIL NL OF 7.9 0.4 5 0.739 4 8
2006 Delgado C NYN NL 1B 7.2 0.8 5 0.721 4 8
2006 Cabrera M FLA NL 3B 7.1 0.6 5 0.725 4 8
2006 Lopez F CIN NL SS 6.7 1 5 0.652 4 8
2006 Jones A ATL NL OF 6.8 1.5 5 0.756 4 8
2006 Soriano A WAS NL OF 7.4 0.9 5 0.738 4 8
2006 Walker T CHN NL 1B 5.7 1.1 4 0.731 4 7
2006 Bonds B SF NL OF 6.7 0.5 4 0.883 4 7
2006 Wright D NYN NL 3B 6.6 1 5 0.666 4 7
2006 Johnson N WAS NL 1B 7.1 0.3 5 0.665 4 7
2006 Fielder P MIL NL 1B 6.6 0.6 5 0.685 4 7
2006 Roberts D SD NL OF 6 1.2 4 0.73 4 7
2006 McCann B ATL NL C 5 1.9 3 0.901 4 7
2006 Dunn A CIN NL OF 6.4 0.7 5 0.642 3 7
2006 Greene K SD NL SS 4.7 2 5 0.618 3 7
2006 Kent J LAN NL 2B 4.9 2.1 5 0.683 3 7
2006 Vidro J WAS NL 2B 5.8 0.9 5 0.639 3 7
2006 Hawpe B COL NL OF 5.7 1.4 5 0.678 3 7
2006 Reyes J NYN NL SS 6.2 1.3 6 0.623 3 7
2006 Kearns A CIN NL OF 5.9 1 5 0.617 3 7



Soriano finds himself in a tie for fourth with some elite company ahead of him; winning elite company. I wouldn’t be surprised if an updated version has Soriano closer to the top as he has hit .347 (16-for-46) with six home runs and 13 runs batted in since May 26th. While the numbers may change, the players involved will likely just be jockeying for position most of the season barring injury. Only a few standouts appear to be out of their league including Johnny Estrada, Todd Walker, Dave Roberts, and the now-injured Brian McCann.

The next non-standard statistic I like to look at when assessing the best of the best, is Baseball Prospectus’ VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). Defined by the site as: “The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense.” I have once again removed Pujols (#1 here as well) and give the next 10 through yesterday:

# NAME TEAM POS LG YEAR PA PA% AVG OBP SLG SB CS MLV PMLV VORP
2 Miguel Cabrera FLO 3b NL 2006 245 11.40% 0.349 0.437 0.593 6 1 28.5 23.8 32.5
3 Jason Bay PIT lf NL 2006 260 11.50% 0.305 0.427 0.614 5 1 27.0 21.1 30.0
4 Chase Utley PHI 2b NL 2006 259 11.50% 0.323 0.398 0.541 6 3 18.1 20.2 27.5
5 Alfonso Soriano WAS lf NL 2006 259 11.40% 0.310 0.363 0.628 13 7 24.0 18.2 25.8
6 David Wright NYN 3b NL 2006 255 11.10% 0.327 0.400 0.559 8 1 21.0 16.3 25.5
7 Nomar Garciaparra LAN 1b NL 2006 175 7.50% 0.363 0.423 0.624 2 0 21.5 17.0 24.3
8 Nick Johnson WAS 1b NL 2006 249 11.00% 0.296 0.415 0.539 5 2 19.4 13.0 23.0
9 Carlos Beltran NYN cf NL 2006 211 9.20% 0.266 0.389 0.572 8 2 14.2 14.5 21.4
10 Andruw Jones ATL cf NL 2006 248 10.80% 0.289 0.355 0.546 3 0 13.1 13.4 21.3
11 Edgar Renteria ATL ss NL 2006 230 10.00% 0.320 0.401 0.465 6 2 11.6 13.7 20.7



This is why Soriano refused to play left field. His value (over replacement) as a second baseman figures to be much higher than at a deeper, more offense-oriented position like left field. Given his production to this point, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that Soriano would be second to Pujols in VORP if he were still at 2nd base. He nearly edges Philadelphia second baseman Chase Utley as a left fielder. Cabrera and Bay have the same team liability as Soriano playing on two of the worst teams in all of baseball.

Aside from the collection of traditional stats, Win Shares & VORP are, in my opinion, two of the best measures for judging for a Most Valuable Player. Last year, Pujols and Rodriguez both justified their wins by finishing atop their respective leagues in Win Shares. Pujols was 2nd to Derrek Lee is VORP. In 2004, three Yankees topped Vladimir Guerrero in WS, but only Gary Sheffield garnered significant consideration finishing second. Based on the early WS & VORP returns, I don’t think that Soriano is going to have a particularly strong case for the MVP in 2006… at least not the “real” baseball MVP.

His power-speed combination coupled with his eligibility at 2nd base make Soriano a fantasy baseball owner’s dream. As expected, he has provided the most valuable non-Albert fantasy season to date. My primary reason for doing this exercise was to see if I was blurring the lines between fantasy & real with my Soriano assessment. I was.

Posted in Analysis, Data & News, Fantasy Baseball | Leave a Comment »

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