Tonight I’ll be on live with Joel Henard for the Baseball Daily Digest show. You can listen live here and either join the chat or call in at (646) 716-5225. We’ve got a great show lined up so be sure to check it out.
Monday: 05.30.2011
Sunday Twidbits: May 29th
Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season. It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer). Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.
Bos – Bad starts hide improvement, but good starts hide regression. Jed Lowrie hitting .237/.302/.333 w/0 HR & 9 RBI in last mo. despite BOS surge
Det – In 102 G w/DET, Jhonny Peralta is hitting .275/.339/.455 w/16 HR & 66 RBI. On pace for career year: 25 HR-92 RBI, would be 4th 20-HR season
SD – One regular topped .263 in Apr.; 4 have in May. One regular topped 10 RBIs in Apr.; 3 have in May. Baby steps for the SD offense.
Was – Sitting on the good side of a platoon, Laynce Nix is hitting .304 w/7 HR (pace for 22) & is vastly under-owned: ESPN 18%, CBS 12%, Y! 8%
Phi – Cliff Lee allowed 3+ ER 12 times last year only 2 in his first 11 starts; he’s already had 7 such instances in his 1st 11 starts of ’11.
Phi2 – Lee (cont.) If those 7 starts w/3+ ER allow even a 1% discount on him in trade, I’m pouncing. 5.4 K/BB FTMFW!!!
NYM – Angel Pagan had 11 H in 19 G before inj., 4 in 3 G since returning. A must-own in scarce offensive environs. ESPN 35%, CBS 65%, Y! 36%
CWS – No longer buying Adam Dunn at cost, must have a discount now. He’s 0-for-36 v. LHP, has homerless streaks of 11 & 14 G.
Tor – Speaking of pwr/spd OF, Corey Patterson is positively on fire (9-12, 2 HR, 4 RBI last 2 G). Not a .301 hitter, but offers enough to be owned.
Ari – Chris Young is on pace for 89 RBI primarily bc of batting order (4/5 most of seas.), but unlikely to hold those spots w/.287 OBP.
Ari2 – Young (cont.) I’d be looking to move him hoping that his nice pwr is enticing & no one notices the near 4% drop in BB.
Ari3 – D’Backs had lg’s worst bullpen ERA by more than a run (5.74 to 4.72) in ’10; down to 3.40 in ’11 & a big reason they’re currently in 1st.
Hou – JA Happ has a 3.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 35.3 IP for May. Also has a nice 8.2 K/9, but sub-2.0 K/BB & still a bit homer-happy; tread carefully.
Cle – Slow starts mask improvement: Shin-Soo Choo hitting .313/.400/.453 in last 17; still has lame .250/.335/.380 line. Remains a full on buy.
TB – He can’t hit LHP & his BABIP is .424 meaning Matt Joyce is in for MAJOR regression. To hit .300 in 510 AB, he’d hit .271 rest of the way.
TB2 – Joyce (cont.) To hit .285, he’d hit .251 the rest of the way. On pace for 17 HR, 57 RBI ROtW; enough O to take the AVG hit via trade?
TB3 – Evan Longoria still hitting just .237/.351/.430 w/3 HR yet still doesn’t have 100 ABs. I’d take him in any trade even w/out a discount.
SF – Surprised that Andres Torres is more owned in ESPN lgs (std. is 10tm) than other outlets. A must-own again w/full health.
SF2 – Torres (cont.) Own rates E 53%, C 43%, Y! 32% despite 16 HR-26 SB in ’10. Even better in OBP lg, but .265ish AVG won’t kill you in ’11.
Mil – Panic surrounding Yovani Gallardo proved worthless. He has a 1.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.7 K & 5 W in last 5 starts. #relax (h/t – @fantasy411)
LAA – Russell Branyan has smacked 56 HRs the last 2 yrs, more than Longo, Cano & Cruz among other big names. Worth a spec on LAA.
Min – Justin Morneau heating up? AVG .283 since 5/6 w/7 multi-hit gms v. 5 0-fers. *Can’t* be at full price at this pt; perhaps time to invest.
StL – Lance Berkman has dipped in May as expected, but not a complete bottom out: .298/.482/.474 in 83 PA… OBP league MONSTER!
Col – Eric Young Jr. called up after .363/.462/.544 (SLG built on 8 3B) w/17 SB in 42 at AAA. Finally ready to deliver more than cheap SB?
KC – Joakim Soria allowed any ER in 10 of 66 G in ’10, never >2; yielded ER in 7 of 22 this yr, allowing 2+ twice. He is broken.
Tex – Remember when Michael Young‘s preseason trade drama was sullying his draft stock a bit? .335 AVG, 33 RBI. Lengthy track record>>Spring Drama
Bal – Contenders might deal Zach Britton to kpr-hungry owner for big return. ERA still <3, but GB rate can only mask 1.6 K/BB & <5 K/9 for so long
Oak – Josh Willingham is on pace for 27 HR, 109 RBI yet ugly .244 AVG leaves him wildly underowned. ESPN 10%, CBS 32%, Y! 16%
Flo – Could just be a lost season for Hanley Ramirez. His .221/.315/.358 May actually qualifies as a *better* month; now possibly injured on Sunday
LAD – A big 3-5 w/HR, 3 RBI & 2 R day might be exactly what Rafael Furcal needs to turn his season around. Widely avail. @ paper-thin SS.
NYY – Robinson Cano tied his career high of 5 SB on Sunday. On pace for Utleyesque (circa 2005-2008) .281-92-32-108-16 season w/AVG upside. Buy.
Sea – Brendan Ryan is 17-for-30 during 9 G hitting streak w/7(!) multi-hit gms pushing his AVG to .279. Passable MI fill-in for AL-Only lgs.
Pit – Young O was supposed to improve PIT outlook for ’11, but keeping w/unpredictable ’11, it’s been their lg avg pitching keeping them afloat.
Pit2 – Paul Maholm‘s K rate is above 6 for 1st time since ’08, but K/BB is still <2 & 3.18 ERA/1.18 WHIP are built on .256 BABIP. Be careful.
CHC – All the closer turmoil in MLB has covered Carlos Marmol‘s success as perhaps lg’s best. Best ERA, 2nd K, t5th SV & 6th WHIP. #beastmode
Cin – Oft-hurt Rolen & oft-sucky Renteria could open PT for prospect Todd Frazier who hit .287/.364/.557 w/11 HR, 33 RBI & 6 SB in 47 G at AAA
Cin2 – Frazier (cont.) Speculate, but ONLY if you’re patient. Dusty Baker loves his veterans so PT might start out slow for the 25-year old.
Atl – The rebirth of Jair Jurrjens‘ GB rate (50%; 40, 43 last 2 yrs) is nice, but I’d trade him & his 5.2 K/9, 86% LOB% & 4% HR/FB rates ASAP
Sunday: 05.29.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 9 Monday-Friday
Stupid ESPN scoreboard. They told me Bartolo Colon was pitching on Sunday against Seattle. Alas he did NOT, instead pitching on Monday while teammate CC Sabathia got the nod against the Mariners. That little mishap cost this week’s set of picks the chance at a sub-4.00 ERA. The week started off poorly with Colon allowing six in six against Toronto and his supposed counterpart for today, Jason Vargas, getting knocked around on Monday, too.
Chris Narveson was also torched on Tuesday, leaving the picks with a 10.93 ERA after just three starts. It was smooth sailing from that point forward as the remaining nine starters posted a 2.33 ERA in 58 innings, but as I mentioned it just wasn’t enough to erase that early damage. At least if you’re streaming in a head-to-head league, the picks down the stretch were much better than the rough start.
MONDAY:
Colon (NYY @ OAK) – It’s still a nice start against a weak offense in a friendly ballpark.
Ervin Santana (LAA @ KC) – The Royals offense has fallen back to the middle of the pack this month while Santana is getting into a groove. He will still have that implosion from time to time that leaves his composite numbers right around league average. I think this is a good spot for him.
Jason Hammel (COL @ LAD) – Hammel is something of an enigma as his first two years in Colorado saw some great skills paired with less-than-stellar ERA & WHIP totals not commensurate with those skills. This year the skills have eroded a bit, but the ERA & WHIP totals are around what we’d have expected in those other two years. I think his skills rise to where they were in 2009 and 2010 while holding firm or improving the ERA & WHIP, plus the Dodgers are an auto play-against team with their weak offense.
Prediction: Jo-Jo Reyes will break his no-win streak against Cleveland on Monday. I like his skills a bit and could see him on Trolling at some point soon. He’s been horrifically unlucky to this point. For now, I’ll just predict a win for him snapping that ugly streak.
TUESDAY:
Ryan Vogelsong (SF @ STL) – His ownership rates are on the rise, but he is still available in a ton of leagues for at least another week. The skills are there with a 7.0 K/9 and 2.9 K/BB so keep riding the streak while it lasts. With the rash of injuries hitting the pitching ranks of late, I’d hang onto Vogelsong for the time being.
Mike Minor (ATL v. SD) – He did well in last week’s start against a lame Pittsburgh Pirates offense and his reward is a start against the lowly San Diego Padres. They’ve been improved from their awful April performance, but I’m still not afraid of them. I really like Minor. Things will get crowded once Brandon Beachy gets back, but I think Minor will perform well enough to make things difficult for the Braves brass.
Erik Bedard (SEA v. BAL) – Bedard is no longer available in many CBS leagues (84%), but he’s still widely available in ESPN (66%) and Yahoo! (44%) leagues, so we’ll throw him out for another week, but he also joins the Hold List. He’s another guy who is probably being snapped up permanently a lot more given the spate of injuries that recently hit the game (Beachy, Josh Johnson and Wandy Rodriguez to name a few).
WEDNESDAY:
Chris Capuano (NYM v. PIT) – He has the one blowup in May (6 ER on 5/21), but otherwise he has allowed no more than 2 ER in his other four starts this month. The blowup was at the Yankees where he allowed four home runs so it’s fair to say it’s an anomaly. Best of all, he has 28 K in 29 innings this month. This a nice start for him.
THURSDAY:
Jordan Zimmermann (WAS @ ARI) – He’s off to the Hold List this week as his ownership rates creep near 70% at two of the three outlets (Y! is the holdout) and I don’t want to keep recommending a guy who isn’t widely available.
Tim Stauffer (SD v. HOU) – His skill set this year is really nice. He has kept most of his groundball gains from 2010 (53% after 55% last year) while adding strikeouts and cutting walks. Meanwhile his BABIP, LOB% & HR/FB indicators point toward some favorable ERA headed his way cutting into the 3.60 he is currently toting. I love him in a start against Houston, but that stupid, dumb offense of his might continue to cost him wins.
FRIDAY:
Danny Duffy (KC v. MIN) – Facing Texas twice and heading to Camden Yards, the rookie southpaw has acquitted himself well in the first three starts of his career all things considering. There is nothing particularly special about his 4.11 ERA or 1.57 WHIP (10 BB in 15.3 IP), but the 8.2 K/9 is very nice and he seems to be getting better start-to-start as he gets his feet underneath him in his debut season. He finally draws a favorable matchup and I think we could get our first glimpse of the high end ability this kid has in his future.
The weekend later this week…
Wednesday: 05.25.2011
Do You Want S’Morse?
Ham Porter: Hey, Smalls, you wanna s’more?
Smalls: Some more of what?
When it was announced in mid-March that outfielder Michael Morse was in line to win a job with the Washington Nationals, he became a darling sleeper for many. He popped 15 home runs in less than 100 games last year (98) with a solid .289/.352/.519 line in 293 plate appearances. A simple extrapolation made him a mid-30s home run hitter with 600 at-bats. Of course, it’s not always that simple. You couldn’t just pencil him in for 34 home runs assuming that he would keep mashing at the same rate over a full season of work. However, even accounting for some regression, a new power source was available.
Sometimes there are players who work best in limited doses and when they finally win a full-time job, they are overexposed. Ryan Raburn seems to prove this yearly as his strong second halves win him a job for the following year where he falls on his face, loses the jobs, plays sporadically through the early summer before turning it on after the All-Star break, earning a full-time job around or just after the trading deadline and restarting the cycle in earnest with insane August and September numbers.
Morse took his full-time job and gave owners a .182 average by Tax Day (April 15th for the uninitiated) and just .211 by the end of April. He had just one home run, nine runs driven in and four scored with 21 strikeouts against four walks. It wasn’t going well and though it was just 71 at-bats, it was his first 71 with a full-time job out of Spring Training so doubt among even he’s biggest believers began to creep in.
That’s always a bad idea but we see it yearly, especially with unproven guys. People get so hyped about a guy and they psyche themselves into his best case scenario, but then give the guy less than 100 at-bats to prove himself before putting him on the chopping block. It isn’t just with those without a track record, you will see fantasy owners questioning firmly established semi-stars because they get off to a bad start.
Admittedly, Morse’s start was rough and kind of tough to swallow, but in the offense-starved environment we are playing in these days, his power potential still had value and again, we are talking about 71 at-bats! He had a stretch last year from July 24th to August 26th where he posted a .198/.233/.321 line with three home runs, eight driven in, nine scored, 21 Ks and three walks in 81 at-bats. Despite the stretch that was eerily similar to his April this year, he still managed the .289/.352/.519 line that made him a preseason favorite.
Morse has come back in phases. His playing time dwindled a bit, but instead of sulking and letting his season get completely away from him, he got better. (Truth be told, he may very well have sulked, but what he definitely didn’t do was get worse and have what was supposed to be a big season for him spiral out of control.)
First he has repaired his batting average going 12-for-30 (.400) from May 2nd to 22nd still with just a homer, two ribbies and a run. You can only do so much in 30 at-bats, but he piled up hits with four multi-hit games and zero 0-fers in the six games he did start. Then Adam LaRoche hit the disabled list opening a prime playing time opportunity for Morse at first base and in the four games starting at first, he has matched his power output from his 23 games during April.
He has gone 7-for-17 (.412) with three home runs (in three straight games), eight runs batted in and four scored . His season line is up to .281/.303/.447. He’s not walking nearly as much (3.3% against 7.5% in ’10) as he did last year and he is striking out a lot more than he did last year (29% against 24% in ’10), but we are still dealing with a 114 at-bat sample and he’s just now getting into a groove.
I often make the point that you have to be patient with your guys early on and this isn’t necessarily any different. Where it is different is the type of player. If you want to overreact on Carl Crawford and sell low on him, be dumb and do it, there’s a strong chance you will very much regret it by season’s end if not the All-Star break. Same goes for more of a semi-star guy like John Danks. Freak out because of an 0-7 record and elevated ERA and ignore the 608 innings of work that suggest he’s a very good in this league (and that fact that there isn’t a significant skills change within his profile so far this year).
But on someone like Morse or whomever your pet sleeper was this year, why cut bait early? What is there to gain? If you trade him, you’re definitely selling way low because you don’t even believe in him at this point. You might get out from under a struggling star and still get fair market value opting to pass the risk (and potential reward) on for peace of mind, but you’re no doubt getting 50 cents on the dollar to trade Morse when he’s hitting .226 on April 26th.
The question is, did something really change from mid-March through those 71 at-bats taking you from believer to non-believer? If When the answer is no to that question, the next one is, “then why are you giving up?” In most leagues where you rostered someone like Morse, what is going to be available to replace him? Robert Andino (hit .348 in 46 April at-bats; hitting .264 after 91 at-bats)? Gerrardo Parra (.297 in 64 Apr. ABs; .269 after 134)? Aaron Rowand (.294 in 85; .246 after 148)?
Fill in a random slug who had a hot week or 10 days but lacks any real potential instead he just satiates your need to get a Mendoza Line bat out of your lineup so you can feel like you’re making an impact on your roster late in April. Michael Morse might not hit .280-something this year. He strikes out a helluva lot which eats up batting average potential, but over the course of 162 games he is almost certain to get into at least 135+ games barring injury and with his raw power he should hit the 20+ home runs you were hoping for back in March.
So whether it’s a Morse who started slowly but is course correcting of late or a Chris Narveson who you liked as a sleeper and loved until April 25th when he got lit for seven in 2.3 innings (only to rebound before his latest hiccup…) or a Brandon Belt who got all of 52 at-bats to prove himself (Brian Sabean: the fantasy owner?) before getting sent down to AAA (where is straight up raking), if you aren’t going to give your sleepers a legitimate opportunity to pan out (at least mid-June give or take, especially if they’re adjusting to a new role) then don’t even both drafting them. You’re wasting your own time. You’re not allowing for any of the ebbs and flows that come with a 6-month season.
Stick with crusty old vets who you can set your watch to. Some will emerge from year to year and you may get lucky with an Aubrey Huff and Paul Konerko on the same team, but their name recognition won’t send you running for the panic button at the faintest hint of a 2-for-25 stretch. Mostly they will just kind be what they are and you can focus on in-season management instead of trying to win big at the auction/draft. That isn’t necessarily a losing strategy, especially if you’re a nifty trader and good waiver wirererererer. You’re just doing yourself a favor and cutting out the potential for horribly preemptive moves that you will almost certainly regret by midsummer.
Do you want s’Morse? If you want power, then the answer should be yes.
Monday: 05.23.2011
Baseball Podcast Recommendation List: An Update
I’ve added to the original post from back in March with several additions as well as some updated commentary for a handful of shows. That post can be found here in its entirety. However, for those of you just interested in the new additions, I’ve split those off into a new post.
As always, please let me know if you there is something left off that you think I should try out and possibly add to the list.
The New Additions: (May 23rd)
The Baseball Show with Rany & Joe – Rany Jazayerli and Joe Sheenan are long-time friends and industry stalwarts when it comes to baseball. As Joe tells it, they used to have extended phone calls where they would just talk about everything that was going on in baseball so given the rise in podcasts, they decided to just start recording these calls and sharing them with the world. If you enjoyed the writing of these two back at Baseball Prospectus or currently enjoy them either at Rany on the Royals or in Sheehan’s Newsletter, then you’ll definitely like this show.
Sports Poscast with Joe Posnanski – I was absolutely thrilled to learn that Joe Posnanski was starting a podcast and 11 episodes in, it has not disappointed. It isn’t a pure baseball podcast, but there is enough baseball content for it to crack the list especially as we inch closer to summer. He has done three episodes (technically four as one was a two-parter) with the creator of the best show on TV, Michael Schur (Parks & Rec.), including one where they did a fantasy draft of baseball books which was amazing. He’s also had Bob Costas, Bill James, Ian O’Connor (who recently released a book about Derek Jeter) and Giants announcer Duane Kuiper for his baseball-centric episodes. The only no-baseball episode was with Kevin Harlan. This is quickly becoming one of my favorites.
Hot Clicks Podcast with Jimmy Traina – Another one that isn’t all baseball, but eminently listenable regardless of the guest. I discovered the podcast this weekend and listened to all nine episodes. The Logan Morrison and C.J. Wilson episodes are must-listens from a baseball perspective. I also enjoyed the James Andrew Miller (co-author of Those Guys Have All the Fun: Inside the World of ESPN which releases May 24th), Erin Andrews and Chris Cooley episodes quite a bit. If you enjoy Traina’s twice-daily link roundup at Sports Illustrated, you will probably like his podcast.
Bizball Radio – If you enjoy Maury Brown’s great work on the business of sports network (and specifically baseball) then you will no doubt enjoy this podcast where Brown speaks with some of the most intriguing guests in the sports business field. Like some of these additions, it isn’t all baseball all the time especially with topic like the NFL Lockout to speak about, but all except one of his guests (George Atallah from the NFLPA) was either mostly baseball talk or at least some within their episode.
Podcast To Be Named Later – Jason Collette and company from DRaysBay.com have resurrected this Tampa Bay-centric podcast. Like the other team-focused podcasts on the list, it is best if you are a fan of that team, but if you are a diehard baseball fan in need of more podcasts then you will enjoy listening to this roundtable discussion of one of the league’s best teams.
Fantasy Pros 911 Podcast – Rich Wilson, Tony Cincotta and Tim McLeod get together every Sunday night for an hour to talk about the week that was and the one coming up in fantasy baseball. They cover plenty of topics in their hour-plus (the first hour is always live on BlogTalkRadio while anything additional bleeds over onto the podcast only) with information for all fantasy players regardless of league size and format. They engage their chatroom very well, too, and also respond to emails the following week. The sound quality leaves a little to be desired, but I believe the only way to go truly live on BTR is over the phone which precludes them from recording on Skype and then posting a cleaner recording to the site. I might trade the live aspect for better sound, but that would take away their interactive with the chatroom which is a key aspect to the show.
Monday: 05.23.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 8 Tuesday-Friday
I am doing a great job at picking starters who end up involved in rainouts. Of course, half the league gets rained out nightly so I guess that’s not too surprising. Tuesday was a total washout with Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann getting wiped out, but I went back to the well with both on Sunday and it went quite well (14.3 IP, 2 ER, 8 K).
I pound this one home time and time and time again, but the week 7 Trolling picks accentuate perfectly just in case you still don’t believe: you cannot chase wins… ever. Twelve starters threw 78 innings with a 2.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP yet netted just two wins. TWO! It wasn’t a necessarily an ill-begotten ERA, either, as the group had a solid if unspectacular 6.1 K/9, but a very strong 2.5 K/BB.
We will still aim for skills first and foremost, but hopefully we can pull a few more wins with this week’s picks.
MONDAY: Found here.
TUESDAY:
Chris Narveson (MIL v. WAS) – He has spent most of May chiseling away at an ERA that was heavily damaged by a 7 ER in 2.3 IP outing, but now it’s at a very respectable 3.44 thanks to a really strong month. Again, I know you can’t pick and choose starts, but if you remove that outlier, you see a 2.34 ERA in eight starts with a strong 7.9 K/9. Of course, leave it in and the strikeout rate remains the same and the ERA above average, even in the very heavy pitching environment of 2011.
Charlie Morton (PIT v. ATL) – This is still a tough nut to crack with his just over 1 K:BB rate (1.12), but the insane groundball (62%) masks some of the K:BB shortcomings. He has three really weird starts with five walks in each and just one or two strikeouts (five total), but he has a 3.50 ERA in 18.3 innings with two wins during the starts. In his last two starts, he has five Ks in each with 14 and 17 groundballs, respectively. He’s facing a team with 21st ranked OPS on the heels of losing one of their best hitters in Jason Heyward. He has succeeded against much better teams including two complete games at Cincinnati (1 ER total).
WEDNESDAY:
James McDonald (PIT v. ATL) – He has really picked it up in May with a 3.18 ERA in 23 innings along with 24 strikeouts. Still a little inconsistent, but the favorable matchup (6th-most Ks in MLB) helps.
Erik Bedard (SEA @ MIN) – I’ll simply reiterate my Sunday Twidbit on Bedard: “After posting an 8.56 ERA in first 3 starts, Erik Bedard has a 1.97 ERA & 0.97 WHIP in last 5 w/7.3 K/9 & 2.4 K/BB.” Plus he has 18 K in his last 13 IP and he gets to face Minnesota in a pitcher’s ballpark.
Mike Minor (ATL @ PIT) – I love the skills of this kid and he’d have probably gotten a shot sooner had he been on rotation when they needed the spot starts that eventually went to Julio Teheran. He has better than a strikeout per inning in 53 innings at AAA-Gwinnett and just 2.4 BB/9 leading to a near-4.0 K/BB. He had nearly identical skills in 41 major league innings last year (9.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.9 K/BB) and I think he has a chance to be a high-impact starter the rest of the way.
THURSDAY:
Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. FLO) – His huge, albeit surprising, skills are holding strong with a 2.9 K/BB rate in 33 innings. He has also added in some luck so the 1.93 ERA will almost certainly rise a bit, but I’d be surprised if there was a total implosion as long as he maintains the skills hold.
FRIDAY:
Scott Baker (MIN v. LAA) – The Hold List is coming apart at the seams with Brandon McCarthy on the disabled list and Baker struggling in his last three with a 7.04 ERA, though he does have 21 Ks in 15 innings. While a 4.12 ERA might have been usable 2-3 years ago (in fact, Baker’s 4.37 in 2009 netted a 100 ERA+), it’s below average now which costs Baker his HL spot. That said, I’m going to use him for this matchup because the skills are still strong (2.8 K/BB power by 9.1 K/9) and his main weakness (home runs) isn’t a particular strength of the Angels (17th-most in baseball w/38).
Monday: 05.23.2011
Sunday Twidbits: May 22nd
Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season. It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer). Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.
Cin – Jay Bruce is 12-for-26 w/3 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R in his last 7; hitting .319 w/7 HR in May. Hope you were patient thru slow April (.237, 4 HR).
Cle – Asdrubal Cabrera has 200% more HRs (9) than last yr (3); topped last yr’s RBI total (29 in 97 G) w/his 31st in his 44th gm.
Cle2 – A.Cabrera is the latest member of the Paul Sporer Year Early Team; loved him for a breakout. I’m tellin ya, my ’11 rosters=’12 cheatsheets
Cle3 – Josh Tomlin has the largest ERA-FIP disparity in MLB. He will implode bc .175 BABIPs & 85% LOB%s don’t last. Trade now… for anything.
NYM – Carlos Beltran hitting .281/.380/.534 is = or > career #s & on pace for 28-88. Scared of inj? Trade for full value as #s warrant nice return.
NYY – Brett Gardner was hitting .145 on Apr 28 & popping on wires; hitting .369/.455/.492 w/14 R, 11 RBI, 3 SB and 1 HR since.
NYY2 – Gardner (cont.) – Cut guys after 62 AB & you deserve to lose… regardless of lg. format.
Hou – With Astros O exceeding expectations, Michael Bourn‘s value is higher than usual. Elite SBer (59 pace), but also on pace for 100 R.
Tor – Need Ks but can afford a bit of an ERA hit? Buy Brandon Morrow. He’s -0.10 on ERA, but huge in Ks, espec. if cat. is bunched in your lg.
Tor2 – Jays getting .186/.242/.291 at 3B w/25th-worst D. Brett Lawrie & his .346/.403/.633 line w/11 HR, 29 XBH & 9 SB CAN’T be far off. Speculate.
TB – Might consider selling Jeremy Hellickson & his wobbly 3.18 ERA. Built upon sub-2.0 K/BB, .250 BABIP & 6% HR/FB (43% FB); 3.81 FIP = danger.
TB2 – Hellickson (cont.) – If you’re contending in kpr lg w/cheap Helly, even better to trade bc you could net an absolute mint.
Flo – Leo Nunez has been arguably baseball’s best closer this yr. in a yr when it’s been espec. rocky. His skills last yr. predicted future success.
Tex – Elvis Andrus was 32-47 SB last yr. along w/.301 SLG causing some to sour on the 22 y/o SS. He’s 15-15 SB & on pace for 55, 3 < than Hanley.
Phi – Dom Brown punished AAA SPs going .341/.431/.537 in 11 G. Could be worth spec in offense-starved ’11 despite sub-.200 car. avg (in 66 AB).
Det – DET bullpen is toting a 6.03 ERA w/only Valverde doing well. Schlereth has 3.00 ERA, but sub-1.0 K/BB & 6.58 FIP. Need Benoit to compete.
Pit – Andrew McCutchen is hitting .311/.378/.554 in May w/3 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R & 3 SB. Slow April is behind him.
Was – Jason Marquis has rejoined us on Earth in May w/6.26 ERA; control has left him (3.1 in May; 1.3 in Apr). I never believed, no reason to now.
Bal – Nick Markakis is hitting .329 in May & .433 in last 7. .278 OBP (B.Roberts-.273) out of leadoff spot has stifled RBI opps during stretch.
Col – Jhoulys Chacin has carried ’10 skill over (same K/BB), added a ton of GB (47% to 59%) & become COL ace. ERA might tick up a bit from 2.66.
Mil – Jonathan LuCroy isn’t widely owned at any outlet yet has an .863 OPS w/4 HR & 18 RBI in 100 AB; .320 AVG WILL sink, but pwr worth spec.
LAD – Don’t let a pair of stars fool you, LA is a must-start against for even your marginal SP. NL’s worst offense in May; 2nd-worst all yr by R.
Chw – Matt Thornton has allowed 1 ER in 5.3 IP across 6 APP in May. Santos has just 1 meltdown, but mark my words: Thornton will close again in ’11.
StL – Jaime Garcia‘s emergence & rise of Yadier Molina, Jon Jay & Allen Craig on O has more than made up for Waino loss; resulting in NLC lead.
KC – May has brought Jeff Francoeur‘s descent into Francoeurdom (.239); though HRs stick & could lead to 6yr high. Has real value in pwr-less 11.
Atl – Remember when Nate McLouth was “back”? Was hitting .287/.384/.417 thru 5/4. Hitting .143/.226/.196 w/1 HR, 1 RBI & 4 R since.
Atl – If McLouth has a 30+ G stretch of .287 during the season, no one bats an eye, but to start seas. some think it means more. It doesn’t.
LAA – Jordan Walden has labored thru May (6.75 ERA in 8 IP) w/3 BSv, but also 3 SV & 9 K. Only lefty Scott Downs has excelled, but unlikely for role.
Oak – Trevor Cahill has allowed >2 ER just once. K rate has come back down (6.3 K/9 in May), but still capable of big K gm (5-7-1-6)
SF – Remember worrying about Tim Lincecum? Velo is highest in 3 yrs (93), ERA career best (2.06), allowed 0-1 ER in 6 of 10 GS. Remains elite.
Sea – After posting an 8.56 ERA in first 3 starts, Erik Bedard has a 1.97 ERA & 0.97 WHIP in last 5 w/7.3 K/9 & 2.4 K/BB. Widely available.
SD – SD has 4 RP w/21+ IP of 1.16 WHIP or better and 2.6 K/BB or better. Doesn’t incl. Bell & Gregerson. Expect major activity at trade deadline.
Min – Jason Kubel is the only Twins player with 50+ AB w/an OPS over .708 which also means he’s the only one w/an OPS higher than Joey Bats’ SLG!
Ari – Ryan Roberts is on pace for 25 HR, 21 SB, 81 R and 74 RBI yet still not fully owned. Check your wire. Better than 1.0 K/BB is impressive, too.
Chc – Matt Garza has used massive K & GB surges (11 K/9, 48% FB-both car. highs) to post solid 3.72 ERA, but HR correction (2.4 HR/FB%) will sting.
Chc2 – Garza has a sky-high BABIP (.362) bc of terrible IF defense, but regression of BABIP & LOB% will only balance HR/FB at best. Hold, don’t buy
Chc3 – After another big April, Kosuke Fukudome doing his usual slide back. .226 in May with 1 (!!!) RBI. He had 2 in April. That’s hard to do.
Bos – Some people hate owning DH/U-only guys so David Ortiz & his 32 HR pace (& .294 AVG) could be had at a nice price. Inquire.
Sunday: 05.22.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 8 Monday
I’ve only got a time for a very quick post before heading to bed (I’m beat), but I wanted to get Monday’s selections out. I’ll post Week 7 results and Tuesday-Friday picks tomorrow.
MONDAY:
Jason Vargas (SEA @ MIN) – Vargas has become a really nice spot starter that many still don’t believe in for some reason. Sure, he’s not a great pick if you’re chasing wins. But if you’re chasing wins then you’re not paying attention anyway. You look for the best possible scenarios for strong starts and let the wins fall where they may. There is just too much randomness tied to the stat to get caught up in chasing them. The Minnesota offense has been absolutely disgusting this year so while Vargas is usually more of a home-road play (leaning home), this is a prime road start for him.
Bartolo Colon (NYY v. TOR) – Colon is three-time pick on Trolling and he been amazing having posted a 1.57 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 10 K/BB in 23 innings of work. Further accentuating my point about chasing wins, he has just one win in the three outings. He is still widely available in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues with ownership rates under 35% while his CBS mark has risen to 73%. Of course that still leaves 17% and a lot of those are probably leagues where streaming pitchers is a viable strategy.
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Keep An Eye On: Josh Outman (OAK) – I was a big fan of Outman’s back in 2009 when he was in the midst of a breakout before succumbing to injury that cost him all of 2010. He is back with the A’s and starting on Monday in Los Angeles and I recommended keeping him on your watch list. His minor league numbers are ugly as home runs and walks plagued him leading to a 4.78 ERA, but his 7.2 K/9 is right there in line with the 7.1 we saw in ’09. He was a bit fortunate back in ’09 with a .233 BABIP, but his massive flyball tendencies are less damaging in his home park so at the very least he could become a nice matchup play for his home starts. If you’re in a super-deep league looking for pitching and have a spot, he might be worth stashing ahead of the curve.
Week 7 results and the rest of the week tomorrow.
Friday: 05.20.2011
Trolling the Wire: Week 7 The Weekend
With interleague play firing up tonight, it throws an interesting wrench into matchup plays since the rules are going to be different for one team in each game. That said, I would hope an American League pitcher isn’t completely thrown off of his game just because he has to bat a couple times and the DH shouldn’t obliterate a National League pitcher in a one game sample if he’s anywhere close to a worthwhile arm.
Let’s take a look at the weekend picks.
FRIDAY:
Erik Bedard (SEA @ SD) – It might be too late for you to pick him up, but I want to add him with Brad Penny and Ryan Vogelsong to the Friday picks. I’m not sure why he wasn’t originally included. He’s pitching well and gets a start in San Diego, it doesn’t add up much better than that.
SATURDAY:
Clayton Richard (SD v. SEA) – Can’t chase a win here even against the Mariners as the Padres have to face Michael Pineda so run scoring will be even tougher than usual for the Padres. Richard is an ultimate matchup play to be used exclusively at home almost regardless of opponent. He has excelled against Cincinnati and Philadelphia at home while getting a reprieve for a terrible outing against Pittsburgh where he allowed seven but just one earned. He has a 1.71 ERA at home; 7.27 on the road.
Joel Pineiro (LAA v. ATL) – I will reiterate what I said when I recommended him for Monday: I wouldn’t mess with him too often in innings cap leagues because of his meager strikeout rate, but he is an overlooked asset with legitimate value in the right league type. He turned in a quality outing against the A’s going seven allowing three, but striking out just three. Atlanta has been good this year on the whole, but they’re toting a .654 OPS on the road (22nd-ranked).
SUNDAY:
Tim Stauffer (SD v. SEA) – Can’t chase a win here even against the Mariners as the Padres get to face Felix Hernandez so run scoring will be MUCH tougher than usual for the Padres. He was toting a meager 4.5 K/9 in his first four outings, but has struck out 6 or 7 in his last five totaling 33 in 30 innings (9.9 K/9). Combine that with his improved walk rate of 2.1 BB/9 and now he has a career-best 3.7 K/BB. He has held most of his groundball gains from last year (55%) with a 52% rate which all adds up to a great skill set. He could reasonably shave a sizeable chunk off of his 3.81 ERA going forward. I would roster him immediately.
Jordan Zimmermann (WAS @ BAL) – His ownership rates are higher than most of the recommendations on Trolling the Wire, but there are still lower than they should be, at least in my opinion (70% or below across all three major outlets). His strikeout rate in his first five starts was a remarkably disappointing 4.2 K/9, which was worrisome because strikeouts were a significant part of his value coming into the season. In May he has struck out 21 in 18 innings across three starts bringing his season mark up to 6.6 and rising. He has a great 2.1 walk rate pushing his strikeout-to-walk rate above 3.0. He has a mediocre at best 4.13 ERA, in fact it’s below average, but his FIP is 2.67 thanks to a 59% LOB% that is 13% below the average. With these skills, Zimmermann has a good chance to become an above average pitcher the rest of the way.
Rick Porcello (DET @ PIT) – He was slated for Tuesday, but rained out. He is going Sunday so I’ll keep him as a recommendation especially since his draw improves getting the Pirates instead of the Blue Jays. And in case you missed it, here is what I said about in Sunday’s piece: After allowing 10 runs in 10 innings in his first two starts, he has allowed just seven in the next 32 innings across five starts (1.99 ERA) with a passable 5.9 K/9. More importantly, he has a 3.0 K/BB walking just seven. His walk and groundball rates have held from last year while he has added more than a full strikeout per game to his rate. A 3.65 xFIP and 3.76 FIP suggest that his 3.67 ERA is completely legitimate. Buy with confidence.
Results for Week 7 and Week 8’s Monday-Friday picks coming up Sunday evening.
Baseball By Paul 