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Monday: 06.6.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 10 Monday-Friday

It was the roughest week in a long time for Trolling the Wire as Ervin Santana and Jason Hammel dug a hole (13 ER in 11 IP) the rest of picks couldn’t climb out of by Sunday.  The remaining 12 starters from Monday on had a respectable 3.68 ERA, but that gets masked by the Memorial Day thrashings suffered by big Erv and Hammel.

Despite some up and down weeks with ERA and WHIP, I would like to point out that only once has the ground of TtW picks ending the week with a sub-2.0 K/BB rate.  Also, the strikeout rate has been 6.2 K/9 or better in all but one week (not the single sub-2.0 week; K rate was 6.2 that week).

Overall, I am pretty happy with the picks given that almost every single one of the 104 selections has been someone available in 50% or more of all leagues across all three of the main fantasy baseball outlets.  At times, I pick someone with a higher yet still too low (in my opinion) ownership rate, but I always make sure to note that so everyone understands he may not be available in your particular league.

Let’s see what week 10 holds.

MONDAY:

Brian Matusz (BAL v. OAK) – This guy needs to be owned, plain & simple.  I don’t care what the format is, I love his talent.  He may have some bumps in his first handful of starts back, but if you wait until he’s running completely hot, he won’t be available to pick up.

Scott Baker (MIN @ CLE) – He’s off the hold list for a while because he’s been uneven this year, but I still think he is worthwhile as a spot starter.

TUESDAY:

Phil Humber (CHW v. SEA) – Hats off to the Mariners for their recent surge, but it’s being driven mostly by their pitching and I’m still not afraid of that lineup in the least.  Humber doesn’t miss as many bats as I would like (5.1 K/9), but I love the matchup.

Rubby de la Rosa (LAD @ PHI) – This one isn’t for the faint of heart, but I love the talent this kid has and think he could hit the ground running as a starter.  Citizen’s Bank Ballpark is a bit scary, but the Philadelphia Phillies lineup really isn’t.  This pick is also a bit of a futures play.  If he goes out and dominates, he becomes much harder to acquire him, especially in faster-finger leagues, because he will draw the attention of your leaguemates.  So let’s get the jump on this blue-chip prospect.

WEDNESDAY:

Gavin Floyd (CHW v. SEA) – A better option than Humber against the same feeble lineup.  Sign me up.  He’s heavily owned at CBS (88%), but definitely under-owned in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues checking in at 60% and 63%, respectively.  Won’t be available for all, but a must-own if he’s on your wire.

Randy Wolf (MIL v. NYM) – Wolf’s composite skills are solid enough, but the home/road split is what sells me on him this week.  Home: 2.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 32 IP; Road: 4.38 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 39 IP.  He strikes out more on the road, but give me the better rates against a middle of the pack lineup (14th-best OPS in baseball).

THURSDAY:

Aaron Harang (SD v. WAS) – We knew Petco would be friendly to Harang which is what made him intriguing in the first place this offseason.  It has played out that way with a 3.31 home ERA against a 4.84 mark on the road.  Take the known advantage of the spacious ballpark and pair it with a great matchup against a bottom five offense.

Jeff Karstens (PIT v. ARI) – Another sharp home/road split to take advantage of here.  Karstens is toting a career best strikeout (6.6 K/9) and walk (1.7 BB/9) rates, the latter of which sinks to 1.5 at home.  He is over three runs better at home with a 2.21 ERA in 37 innings at PNC Park (5.23 road ERA) and though Arizona is having a great run of late, their road offense is bottom five with 105 runs scored and a paltry .657 OPS.

FRIDAY:

Charlie Morton (PIT v. NYM) – What does this kid have to do to get some love?  He’s been fantastic this year.  The strikeout rate is low, there’s no doubt about it, so innings cap leaguers beware if you don’t have a strikeout ace.  But beyond that he’s been brilliant and the groundball rate is astronomical which covers that K deficiency nicely.

 

Weekend picks later this week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 06.6.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 10 Monday

I’ll post the rest later, but I’ve been quite busy at work today.  I wanted to get Monday’s picks out for leagues that still allow pick ups (namely ESPN ones).

Brian Matusz v. OAK

Scott Baker v. CLE

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 06.6.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 5th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Det – Austin Jackson was sub-.200 on 5/6, hitting .284/.346/.432 w/2 HR, 9 RBI, 14 R, 9BB, 6 SB since. DET 15-9 during stretch; 15-18 before.

CWS – Gordon Beckham, Adam Dunn & Alex Rios are a combined .205/.291/.324 w/14 HR & 55 RBI in 581 AB

CWS2 – 5 players have more HR than the trio & 4 are within 10 of their RBI total; it’s a near-miracle CWS is just 4 under .500

Tex – Mitch Moreland is hitting .308/.381/.506 w/8 HR, but just 19 RBI. Prob bc of 1.056 OPS w/no one on against .691 w/men on & .687 w/RISP

Cle – Cleveland is 12-15 in last month & just 4-9 since big sweep of Cincy. Sets at NYY-DET-SF-ARI-CIN & home v. NYY in next month will show a lot

LAD – Matt Kemp is on fire since 5/23: .341/.413/.829 w/6 HR, 16 RBI, 10 R, 2 SB; has played in 263 straight games… MLB’s longest. Rest easy, Cal.

Cin – Johnny Cueto is a lone bright spot in CIN rotation, but K sliding yearly down to 5.2 this yr. BABIP & LOB% fueled 2.27 ERA will rise. Sell.

Tor – Yunel Escobar is sitting comfortably atop TOR lineup & is on pace for career year: .293/.373/.451, 7 HR-24 RBI paces for 19 HR-66 RBI.

Bal – Kevin Gregg‘s weak skills (1:1 K/BB) could open the door for Koji Uehara. He hates being healthy, but 11.7 K/9 & 6.4 K/BB are great. Speculate.

Oak – Brett Anderson‘s ERA is 4.00 thru Sunday start, but 6.6 K/9, 2.4 K/BB & 60% GB rate make his a must-buy profile. Discount possible.

Bos – Overall numbers don’t show it, but Carl Crawford is red-hot the last month: .306 AVG, 4 HR, 12 XBH, 22 RBI, 20 R, 3 SB. Hard to erase ugly starts.

Bos2 – Tell a friend Adrian Gonzalez has 12 HRs & ask him to guess how many came in April. Answer is 1. See why 1st mo. is no reason to freak out?

Mil – It’s never been talent w/Rickie Weeks, only health & he’s en route to 2nd str8 huge, healthy yr: .288/.358/.500, 30 HR, 71 RBI, 19 SB, 113 R

Mil2 – Weeks played w/fire in terms of his health last yr leading baseball w/25 HBP. On pace to cut that nearly in half w/13.

Flo – Marlins are being propped up by a bullpen that features 1 arm w/an ERA over 3.86. Easing pain of Johnson out & awful back end of rotation.

Phi – Chase Utley is hitting a paltry .227/.333/.318, but 3 SBs suggest he’s healthy meaning the rest will come. I’d buy where available.

Pit – Some prospects are late-bloomers: Neil Walker was 4-time top 81 ‘spect ’05-08, debuted in ’10, now on pace for 22-109. Can’t give up.

CHC – Do not stare directly into Tyler Colvin‘s 20 HRs from ’10, it’ll distract you from .147/.220/.250 line since Sept 1. of last year.

StL – Here comes Albert Pujols: .322/.395/.504 w/5 HR, 18 RBI, 16 R & 3 SB since Cinco de Mayo. Ole!

Min – With inj.ravaging MLB, you could do worse than Alexi Casilla: .329/.406/.353 w/13 R, 5 SB & 7 RBI since May 1st. Elig. at both MI positions

KC – Until Sat. Aaron Crow hadn’t even pitched much less SV’d a gm this wk. KC has either won big (1), late (1) or lost (4) since he got CL role.

NYY – Brett Gardner is really struggling in areas he excelled in last yr: pace of 51 BB in 159 G, 79 in 150 in ’10; 28/20 SB/CS (47/9 in ’10)

LAA – Bobby Abreu has .393/.493/.547 line since May 18th, up 40 pts to .292. On pace for 27 SB, but other #s struggling. Perhaps a selling point.

Col – Troy Tulowitzki hitting .289/.362/.404, 0 HR, but jello is shaking w/noise in the distance. Brace yourself, could be a hot streak coming.

Col2 – Daily leaguers: platoon Chris Iannetta home & away for maximization of value: H-.310/.432/.676, 6 HR, 19 RBI; R-.149/.329/.209, 2 HR, 4 RBI

SF – Ryan Vogelsong stays hot w/big 2 start week: 13 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 10 K, 3 BB. Season ERA down to 1.68, 7 K/9, 3 K/BB. Hard not to buy in.

Col-SF – 10 R scored in Col-SF series; all SP went 6+ IP; all SF SP went 7+. Bullpens combined for 11 IP w/1 ER (Lindstrom today, game-winner).

Was – Jason Marquis is a fantasy baseball amusement ride, though the drops can induce vomit: ERA in 1st five-2.62, next five-6.21, last two-1.54.

Ari – Kelly Johnson was hitting .190 on 5/24. Since: .326/.436/.739 w/6 HR, 10 RBI, 15 R & 2 SB. Up to .224, on pace for 30 HR/22 SB.

TB – On Apr. 23, Sam Fuld was hitting .365/.407/.541 w/13 R, 10 SB (3 CS); since .157/.215/.240 w/8 R, 4 SB (3 CS). #bonifacioed

Sea – Brandon League since 4 gm meltdown-fest: 9 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 7 SV; tied for AL lead w/16 SV. Good luck getting that job Aardsma.

Hou – Welcome to the bigs, Jordan Lyles. Even the lowly Padres are tougher than the best AAA team: 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 2nd career start

SD – Surely 3B is too thin for Chase Headley to be owned at only ~50% at the major outlets? Sure 1 HR sucks, but passable AVG & 20 SB is OK.

Atl – Freddie Freeman‘s .217/.314/.380 Apr may’ve dissuaded some, but patience has been rewarded w/.327/.378/.453 since May 1.  Power remains light, but that was expected.

NYM – Dillon Gee has been a gem for the Mets rotation this yr: 6-0, 3.33 ERA, 1.11, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB. Numbers support success, espec. in NL-Only

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Saturday: 06.4.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 9 The Weekend

I don’t usually post on Saturday, but I owe you all some spot starter picks!  I fell asleep early and was out like a light last night.  I finished my top 30 picks, then focused in entirely on my Tigers against the White Sox and wasn’t awake to see the end of the 6-4 loss.  So let’s get these out quickly and you still might be able to make a move:

SATURDAY:

Doug Fister (SEA v. TB) – I never bought in on Fister last year and was eventually proven right as he ended the season with a 4.11 ERA.  He just didn’t strikeout enough guys for my liking.  He has changed that so far this year with 6.0 K/9 in May and 6.2 for the season.  Combine that with a strong 2.0 BB/9 and this is an appealing skill set.  The M’s are somehow smoking the Rays early on in this series and it doesn’t get easier for the Rays facing Fister.

Dillon Gee (NYM v. ATL) – Not much is going right for the Mets this year, but Gee has been a bright spot for the Mets rotation and I like him at home (2.20 ERA in Citi) against the Braves.

SUNDAY:

Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. COL) – The strikeouts are on the decline a bit in his last three starts, but he has a 0.38 ERA at home despite 5.3 K/9.  He amps up the punchouts on the road (8.6) so if you need Ks, the trends say this might not be the best spot for him, but for a quality outing I’d go with him.

Erik Bedard (SEA v. TB) – His swan song on Trolling the Wire as his ownership rates continue to climb because owners are finally catching on.

James McDonald (PIT v. PHI) – He was positively brilliant in May (2.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 K/BB in 35 IP) and I think he can hold his own against the Phillies, especially at home (2.55 home ERA/6.49 road).  His offense faces Roy Halladay so a win might be tough to come by, but we don’t chase wins.

Results (need to rally this weekend!) and Week 10 picks tomorrow…

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 06.2.2011

Blind Resume Comparison #2 – June 2nd

Something that holds a lot of fantasy baseball players back in their analysis is name value.  Whether on the high end, in the middle or at the low end, fantasy owners put a lot of stock into name which can cost them when analyzing deals, pickups and start-sit decisions.

Oftentimes we’ll create a narrative to fit the name value of the player we are analyzing.  A star-level player with a modest stat line is “working through a funk” or “about to turn it around” or “due to turn it up soon” and depending on the stat line in question, any or all of those may very well be true.  But that’s no always the case.  On the other end, a surging no-name is “getting lucky and sure to regress soon” or “a fluke that can’t keep this up” or “doing well, but definitely not better than *insert name of guy drafted 10 rounds before player in question*”.   [Ed. note – Yes, this is the same opening for the other BRC and it will be the form opening for all of them right now.]

An eye-opening exercise is to look at a pair of resumes without the names, do your analysis and then uncover the names.  Obviously, this can’t really be done solo for a bevy of reasons so I’m here to help!  The first blind resume comparison (BRC) is with a pair of outfielders:

198 AB 209

.258 AVG .278

33 R 27

8 HR 9

34 RBI 32

7 SB 6

5th Draft Season ADP Undr.

The draft positions might give this one away, but it’s kind of surprising to see a top five pick performing on par with someone who went undrafted in many, many leagues.  Rest assured, I am not for a second suggesting that anyone trade the one on the left for the one on the right in a 1-for-1 deal, just using these two to outline how things can be skewed even in a two month sample.

You hear time and time again throughout April and into May that “it’s too early” to analyze the stats we are seeing, in fact I say as much quite often at least in terms of the heavy outliers.  I usually apply it to guys with high expectations who are struggling and causing owners to panic.

For the guy on the left, he was a very costly investment that ended April with a .228/.277/.304 line.  The stink of that first month carried over into May and set up an ugly foundation that covered up the fact that he went .282/.375/.544 in May with seven home runs and 19 RBIs compared to one homer & 14 RBIs the month before.

Meanwhile Mr. Guy on the Right has done just the opposite where a .314/.357/.569 April offered enough cushion to help soften the blow of a .233/.287/.388 May that despite four home runs is more in line with what we would expect from him and shows why he was so often undrafted back in March.

Despite their similar season-long paces, you couldn’t get anyone to value them equally and this one has less to do with being tied to preseason values as it does to recognizing divergent starts that are nowhere near true talent levels.

Both players held to career form whereby Mr. Left often starts slow before turning it up in May and then really ramping it up in middle summer months.  Meanwhile April is Mr. Right’s best month by far across his career.  It’s his only above .800 OPS and it’s followed by a pair of sub-.700 months so you can reasonably expect things to get worse before maybe steadying for the remainder of the season.

Have an idea who the players are?  Their names are in white font just below if you want to select the space and reveal them.

 

Carlos Gonzalez

Jeff Francoeur

 

For those of you not wanting to do that or unable to for whatever reason click here & here for the player profiles.

Interesting, huh?

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Blind Resume, Player Focus, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

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Tuesday: 05.31.2011

Roy Halladay Even Struggles Better Than Everyone Else

How many pitchers would kill to have one of their bad games be one where they go seven, give up four runs and still get the win?  Hundreds, I’m sure.  It wasn’t Roy Halladay’s worst start of the season, no, that was his six earned run in six and two-thirds showing where he yielding 10 hits and allowed walked a season-high two.

His Memorial Day effort during which he allowed three home runs, easily a season-worst, yielded his second lowest Game Score of the season at 46 yet he still managed to strike out five, walk nobody and as I mentioned, earned the win.  Still don’t think wins are a fluky, unpredictable whore of a stat?

What I found most interesting about Halladay’s start yesterday was that he gave up those three home runs yet still got a win.  How often does that happen?  More on that in that in a second.  Halladay doesn’t normally give up home runs, in fact even accounting for his Memorial Day three pack, his HR/9 rate is up to a still-tiny 0.5.

Since becoming a full-time starter back in 2001, his rate hasn’t topped 1.0.  In the parts of three years before that homers were a major issue for the young Halladay (21-23 years old in that span).  That said, he isn’t averse to allowing three or more in a start even during his reign as baseball’s best pitcher, or at least one of them.

In his Cy Young season of 2003 when he went 22-7 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and league-best 6.4 K/BB rate, he twice allowed three bombs in a game.  The first was against the Royals where the homers proved to be the only earned damage against Halladay as he went six leaving before there was a decision.  Toronto won the game 6-5.

The other was a bit more damaging, but again he didn’t expire the bullpen going 7.3 innings allowing six runs striking out seven and walking just one.  He had a similar outing the following year going 6.7 innings allowing seven, six earned against Detroit, but struck out nine and walked a pair.

He has allowed 3+ home runs seven more times since 2007 which is tied with eight others for the third-most in major league baseball, including Johan Santana interestingly enough.  In those games, he is a seemingly impossible 4-2 (.667 winning percentage) outclassing his mates with a 5.47 ERA (next best is 6.95; worst is 12.20) and 1.31 WHIP (1.43; 1.96).

One of his four wins even came when he allowed four home runs in a game.  That was last year in September against Milwaukee.  They were all solo shots and the only four runs allowed by Halladay.

Now, how often does a starting pitcher give up three home runs and still come out on the other end with a win?  Here’s a clue, it’s not two-thirds of the time like Halladay.  In that same 2007-2011 span, the league is 70-449 (.135 winning percentage) in 3+ home runs allowed starts for major league baseball pitchers.

Not surprisingly, Halladay is also the best at saving the bullpen during those poor outing going 51 innings with Santana and James Shields checking in behind him at 44 each.  Of the 35 players with 5+ three home runs allowed outing since 2007, only he and now teammate Cliff Lee have a complete game under their belt.  Even when he’s doing poorly, Halladay is still better than everyone else.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

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Tuesday: 05.31.2011

Blind Resume Comparison #1 – May 31st

Something that holds a lot of fantasy baseball players back in their analysis is name value.  Whether on the high end, in the middle or at the low end, fantasy owners put a lot of stock into name which can cost them when analyzing deals, pickups and start-sit decisions.

Oftentimes we’ll create a narrative to fit the name value of the player we are analyzing.  A star-level player with a modest stat line is “working through a funk” or “about to turn it around” or “due to turn it up soon” and depending on the stat line in question, any or all of those may very well be true.  But that’s no always the case.  On the other end, a surging no-name is “getting lucky and sure to regress soon” or “a fluke that can’t keep this up” or “doing well, but definitely not better than *insert name of guy drafted 10 rounds before player in question*”.

An eye-opening exercise is to look at a pair of resumes without the names, do you analysis and then uncover the names.  Obviously, this can’t really be done solo for a bevy of reasons so I’m here to help!  The first blind resume comparison (BRC) is with a pair of middle infielders:

202 AB 199

.243 AVG .261

29 R 30

4 HR 2

16 RBI 18

12 SB 15

32nd Draft Season ADP 70th

Both sets of underlying skills support the numbers we have seen thus far meaning neither is in for a huge batting average regression tied to BABIP nor is there anything egregiously askew in their HR/FB rates.

The more well-thought of player coming into the season has seen a shift in his skills, though, with his strikeout rate rising nearly 7% to a career worst 19% while his groundball rate has skyrocketed 11% up to 50%.  Our other player saw his stock drop a bit after a stagnant, but still fantasy-valuable 2010 season.  He is pacing toward a season we have seen from him before and given his position on the diamond, he is a prime fantasy asset.

The question is would someone laugh at you for offering the guy on the right for the one on the left?  You can answer that after the reveal.  Regardless of the answer, it really shouldn’t draw snickers, rather it should be seen as a complete serious offer.  The skills change of our guy on the left suggests he is going to vastly underperform expectations of a 32nd overall pick, but at the same time will maintain value albeit different proportioned.

Have an idea who the players are?  Their names are in white font just below if you want to select the space and reveal them.

Dustin Pedroia

Elvis Andrus

For those of you not wanting to do that or unable to for whatever reason click here & here for the player profiles.

Interesting, huh?

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Blind Resume, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 05.30.2011

Sunday Twidbits: May 29th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Bos – Bad starts hide improvement, but good starts hide regression. Jed Lowrie hitting .237/.302/.333 w/0 HR & 9 RBI in last mo. despite BOS surge

Det – In 102 G w/DET, Jhonny Peralta is hitting .275/.339/.455 w/16 HR & 66 RBI. On pace for career year: 25 HR-92 RBI, would be 4th 20-HR season

SD – One regular topped .263 in Apr.; 4 have in May. One regular topped 10 RBIs in Apr.; 3 have in May. Baby steps for the SD offense.

Was – Sitting on the good side of a platoon, Laynce Nix is hitting .304 w/7 HR (pace for 22) & is vastly under-owned: ESPN 18%, CBS 12%, Y! 8%

Phi – Cliff Lee allowed 3+ ER 12 times last year only 2 in his first 11 starts; he’s already had 7 such instances in his 1st 11 starts of ’11.

Phi2 – Lee (cont.) If those 7 starts w/3+ ER allow even a 1% discount on him in trade, I’m pouncing. 5.4 K/BB FTMFW!!!

NYM – Angel Pagan had 11 H in 19 G before inj., 4 in 3 G since returning. A must-own in scarce offensive environs. ESPN 35%, CBS 65%, Y! 36%

CWS – No longer buying Adam Dunn at cost, must have a discount now. He’s 0-for-36 v. LHP, has homerless streaks of 11 & 14 G.

Tor – Speaking of pwr/spd OF, Corey Patterson is positively on fire (9-12, 2 HR, 4 RBI last 2 G). Not a .301 hitter, but offers enough to be owned.

Ari – Chris Young is on pace for 89 RBI primarily bc of batting order (4/5 most of seas.), but unlikely to hold those spots w/.287 OBP.

Ari2 – Young (cont.) I’d be looking to move him hoping that his nice pwr is enticing & no one notices the near 4% drop in BB.

Ari3 – D’Backs had lg’s worst bullpen ERA by more than a run (5.74 to 4.72) in ’10; down to 3.40 in ’11 & a big reason they’re currently in 1st.

Hou – JA Happ has a 3.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 35.3 IP for May. Also has a nice 8.2 K/9, but sub-2.0 K/BB & still a bit homer-happy; tread carefully.

Cle – Slow starts mask improvement: Shin-Soo Choo hitting .313/.400/.453 in last 17; still has lame .250/.335/.380 line. Remains a full on buy.

TB – He can’t hit LHP & his BABIP is .424 meaning Matt Joyce is in for MAJOR regression. To hit .300 in 510 AB, he’d hit .271 rest of the way.

TB2 – Joyce (cont.) To hit .285, he’d hit .251 the rest of the way. On pace for 17 HR, 57 RBI ROtW; enough O to take the AVG hit via trade?

TB3 – Evan Longoria still hitting just .237/.351/.430 w/3 HR yet still doesn’t have 100 ABs. I’d take him in any trade even w/out a discount.

SF – Surprised that Andres Torres is more owned in ESPN lgs (std. is 10tm) than other outlets. A must-own again w/full health.

SF2 – Torres (cont.) Own rates E 53%, C 43%, Y! 32% despite 16 HR-26 SB in ’10. Even better in OBP lg, but .265ish AVG won’t kill you in ’11.

Mil – Panic surrounding Yovani Gallardo proved worthless. He has a 1.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.7 K & 5 W in last 5 starts. #relax (h/t – @fantasy411)

LAA – Russell Branyan has smacked 56 HRs the last 2 yrs, more than Longo, Cano & Cruz among other big names. Worth a spec on LAA.

Min – Justin Morneau heating up? AVG .283 since 5/6 w/7 multi-hit gms v. 5 0-fers. *Can’t* be at full price at this pt; perhaps time to invest.

StL – Lance Berkman has dipped in May as expected, but not a complete bottom out: .298/.482/.474 in 83 PA… OBP league MONSTER!

Col – Eric Young Jr. called up after .363/.462/.544 (SLG built on 8 3B) w/17 SB in 42 at AAA. Finally ready to deliver more than cheap SB?

KC – Joakim Soria allowed any ER in 10 of 66 G in ’10, never >2; yielded ER in 7 of 22 this yr, allowing 2+ twice. He is broken.

Tex – Remember when Michael Young‘s preseason trade drama was sullying his draft stock a bit? .335 AVG, 33 RBI. Lengthy track record>>Spring Drama

Bal – Contenders might deal Zach Britton to kpr-hungry owner for big return. ERA still <3, but GB rate can only mask 1.6 K/BB & <5 K/9 for so long

Oak – Josh Willingham is on pace for 27 HR, 109 RBI yet ugly .244 AVG leaves him wildly underowned. ESPN 10%, CBS 32%, Y! 16%

Flo – Could just be a lost season for Hanley Ramirez. His .221/.315/.358 May actually qualifies as a *better* month; now possibly injured on Sunday

LAD – A big 3-5 w/HR, 3 RBI & 2 R day might be exactly what Rafael Furcal needs to turn his season around. Widely avail. @ paper-thin SS.

NYY – Robinson Cano tied his career high of 5 SB on Sunday. On pace for Utleyesque (circa 2005-2008) .281-92-32-108-16 season w/AVG upside. Buy.

Sea – Brendan Ryan is 17-for-30 during 9 G hitting streak w/7(!) multi-hit gms pushing his AVG to .279. Passable MI fill-in for AL-Only lgs.

Pit – Young O was supposed to improve PIT outlook for ’11, but keeping w/unpredictable ’11, it’s been their lg avg pitching keeping them afloat.

Pit2 – Paul Maholm‘s K rate is above 6 for 1st time since ’08, but K/BB is still <2 & 3.18 ERA/1.18 WHIP are built on .256 BABIP. Be careful.

CHC – All the closer turmoil in MLB has covered Carlos Marmol‘s success as perhaps lg’s best. Best ERA, 2nd K, t5th SV & 6th WHIP. #beastmode

Cin – Oft-hurt Rolen & oft-sucky Renteria could open PT for prospect Todd Frazier who hit .287/.364/.557 w/11 HR, 33 RBI & 6 SB in 47 G at AAA

Cin2 – Frazier (cont.) Speculate, but ONLY if you’re patient. Dusty Baker loves his veterans so PT might start out slow for the 25-year old.

Atl – The rebirth of Jair Jurrjens‘ GB rate (50%; 40, 43 last 2 yrs) is nice, but I’d trade him & his 5.2 K/9, 86% LOB% & 4% HR/FB rates ASAP

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Sunday: 05.29.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 9 Monday-Friday

Stupid ESPN scoreboard.  They told me Bartolo Colon was pitching on Sunday against Seattle.  Alas he did NOT, instead pitching on Monday while teammate CC Sabathia got the nod against the Mariners.  That little mishap cost this week’s set of picks the chance at a sub-4.00 ERA.  The week started off poorly with Colon allowing six in six against Toronto and his supposed counterpart for today, Jason Vargas, getting knocked around on Monday, too.

Chris Narveson was also torched on Tuesday, leaving the picks with a 10.93 ERA after just three starts.  It was smooth sailing from that point forward as the remaining nine starters posted a 2.33 ERA in 58 innings, but as I mentioned it just wasn’t enough to erase that early damage.  At least if you’re streaming in a head-to-head league, the picks down the stretch were much better than the rough start.

MONDAY:

Colon (NYY @ OAK) – It’s still a nice start against a weak offense in a friendly ballpark.

Ervin Santana (LAA @ KC) – The Royals offense has fallen back to the middle of the pack this month while Santana is getting into a groove.  He will still have that implosion from time to time that leaves his composite numbers right around league average.  I think this is a good spot for him.

Jason Hammel (COL @ LAD) – Hammel is something of an enigma as his first two years in Colorado saw some great skills paired with less-than-stellar ERA & WHIP totals not commensurate with those skills.  This year the skills have eroded a bit, but the ERA & WHIP totals are around what we’d have expected in those other two years.  I think his skills rise to where they were in 2009 and 2010 while holding firm or improving the ERA & WHIP, plus the Dodgers are an auto play-against team with their weak offense.

Prediction: Jo-Jo Reyes will break his no-win streak against Cleveland on Monday.  I like his skills a bit and could see him on Trolling at some point soon.  He’s been horrifically unlucky to this point.  For now, I’ll just predict a win for him snapping that ugly streak. 

TUESDAY:

Ryan Vogelsong (SF @ STL) – His ownership rates are on the rise, but he is still available in a ton of leagues for at least another week.  The skills are there with a  7.0 K/9 and 2.9 K/BB so keep riding the streak while it lasts.  With the rash of injuries hitting the pitching ranks of late, I’d hang onto Vogelsong for the time being.

Mike Minor (ATL v. SD) – He did well in last week’s start against a lame Pittsburgh Pirates offense and his reward is a start against the lowly San Diego Padres.  They’ve been improved from their awful April performance, but I’m still not afraid of them.  I really like Minor.  Things will get crowded once Brandon Beachy gets back, but I think Minor will perform well enough to make things difficult for the Braves brass.

Erik Bedard (SEA v. BAL) – Bedard is no longer available in many CBS leagues (84%), but he’s still widely available in ESPN (66%) and Yahoo! (44%) leagues, so we’ll throw him out for another week, but he also joins the Hold List.  He’s another guy who is probably being snapped up permanently a lot more given the spate of injuries that recently hit the game (Beachy, Josh Johnson and Wandy Rodriguez to name a few).

WEDNESDAY:

Chris Capuano (NYM v. PIT) – He has the one blowup in May (6 ER on 5/21), but otherwise he has allowed no more than 2 ER in his other four starts this month.  The blowup was at the Yankees where he allowed four home runs so it’s fair to say it’s an anomaly.  Best of all, he has 28 K in 29 innings this month.  This a nice start for him.

THURSDAY:

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS @ ARI) – He’s off to the Hold List this week as his ownership rates creep near 70% at two of the three outlets (Y! is the holdout) and I don’t want to keep recommending a guy who isn’t widely available.

Tim Stauffer (SD v. HOU) – His skill set this year is really nice.  He has kept most of his groundball gains from 2010 (53% after 55% last year) while adding strikeouts and cutting walks.  Meanwhile his BABIP, LOB% & HR/FB indicators point toward some favorable ERA headed his way cutting into the 3.60 he is currently toting.  I love him in a start against Houston, but that stupid, dumb offense of his might continue to cost him wins.

FRIDAY:

Danny Duffy (KC v. MIN) – Facing Texas twice and heading to Camden Yards, the rookie southpaw has acquitted himself well in the first three starts of his career all things considering.  There is nothing particularly special about his 4.11 ERA or 1.57 WHIP (10 BB in 15.3 IP), but the 8.2 K/9 is very nice and he seems to be getting better start-to-start as he gets his feet underneath him in his debut season.  He finally draws a favorable matchup and I think we could get our first glimpse of the high end ability this kid has in his future.

The weekend later this week…

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Friday: 05.27.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 8 The Weekend

The week started off pretty horribly so even though the last five starts have been gems, they have just been chiseling away at a bloated ERA caused by the first three guys trotted out there.  I’ve got four weekend picks to cover and perhaps they can keep the momentum going giving the group a good composite week.

SATURDAY:

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS v. SD) – After an up and down April, Zimmermann has thrown 25 innings with a 3.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while striking out 26 in four May starts, the last three of which have been on the road.  Now he gets a home bid against the putrid San Diego Padres offense making him a must-start.  He is still on a lot of league wires for some reason, but he is someone I really like for the remaining four months of the season so I’d consider hanging onto him in leagues where available.

Carlos Villanueva (TOR v. CHW) – He has been dealing this year for the Jays, mostly out of the pen, but got a start on Monday and looked very sharp against the Yankees.  He is a strikeout guy (26 in 29 IP, 5 in 5 on Monday) which can build a pitch count.  That combined with the fact that they are just starting to stretch him out could limit him to around six innings, but I think he will fare well.

Randy Wolf (MIL v. SF) – He was on fire earlier this year (2.39 ERA in 6 Apr. starts), but then cooled off with two poor starts at the beginning of May including one against the Padres.  He’s throwing well again of late and he completes his tour of the NL West (last three starts v. SD, COL & @LAD) with a shot against a weak Giants offense that recently lost their best player, catcher Buster Posey.

SUNDAY:

Bartolo Colon (NYY @ SEA) – He was knocked around earlier this week on my watch as was his opponent in this game, Jason Vargas.  They are a big part of why the composite numbers look so bad, but I’m willing to stand by Colon after a bad start.  It’s only second down start of the season and he still struck out eight so he can be trusted against the anemic M’s in Safeco.

 

Results and Week 9 picks on Sunday.

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